The $25,000 electric vehicle is coming, with big implications for the auto market and car buyers
Sales of the sub-$30,000 Chevy Bolt, being assembled here in Orion Township, Michigan, allowed GM to recently pass Ford as a distant No. 2 behind Tesla in EVs.
Joe White | Reuters
From the headlines, car buyers might think the most important force driving down the cost of electric vehicles is the $7,500 tax credit that was expanded last summer, followed by Tesla’s recent aggressive cost-cutting to gain more market share.
Look closer, and the work auto companies are doing themselves to refine EV technology — and, crucially, new manufacturing processes — loom as an even bigger deal. And that’s resulting in a series of newly-announced and coming-soon models that will make EVs much cheaper, and more mainstream, highlighted by Tesla‘s first detailed public explanation of how its next-generation car due next year will come at a lower price tag, expected to start between $25,000 and $30,000.
The rise of the mass-market EV will be a milestone — environmentally, economically, financially and even politically. And as the Biden administration pushes changes that seek to aggressively remake the car market in favor of EVs more quickly than previously anticipated.
Hitting price points well below the $48,763 U.S. average new-vehicle price, which Kelley Blue Book says has risen 30% in the last three years, will make obsolete the shibboleth that EVs are an elite affectation of rich people. If the new models catch on, they will cement electric transportation as a mainstream consumer good, while also making Tesla, a refocused Ford and General Motors — and a still-to-be-winnowed out collection of EV startups — fully mainstream carmakers.
“For Tesla to go mass-market, they have to have a cheaper car,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who thinks Tesla’s version will be a compact luxury vehicle akin to an Audi A3 gas-powered car, whose base model starts at $35,400. “And mass market is the holy grail.”
Tesla’s lowest-priced model today is the Model 3 base MSRP of $41,990. There are currently three EV models with base MSRPs under $30,000, the Chevy Bolt, Bolt EUV, and Nissan Leaf, but average sales prices in March for both were still above $30,000, according to Edmunds, and above $34,000 in the case of the Leaf.
Lower-priced EVs are among a flood of new electric models that have begun to hit the market, with more than 60 new EVs expected in the next few years. Volkswagen on March 15 announced the sub-25,000 euro ID.2 model for the European market. Startup Fisker plans to launch the $29,900 PEAR crossover next year in the U.S., and GM is set to ship a sub-$30,000 Chevrolet Equinox electric sport-utility vehicle by fall. Most will compete in a market for compact sedans that could hit 10 million units over five years globally, even as automakers otherwise deemphasize smaller cars to focus on SUVs, Ives said.
All of these prices are before the tax breaks extended in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, which let U.S. buyers take credits as large as $7,500 for most EVs made in North America, but are getting more complicated, with rules including eligibility based on where batteries are produced. There are also more financing options available in the auto loan market designed specifically for environmentally friendly cars.
The big questions for automakers in budget EVs
The rise of the budget EV raises a host of questions for car makers, including where they achieve the near-term cost savings needed from production lines, how fast they need to move to gain an edge over rivals entering the low end of the market, and whether the cost-saving techniques that EV-only companies Tesla and Fisker are claiming spread to more expensive vehicles, ultimately either lowering or containing their prices to consumers.
But the biggest question of all right now: what kind of EV will consumers be likely to find at these prices, and will they buy it?
“Think [Toyota’s gasoline-powered mainstay] Corolla and other entry-level vehicles,” said Stephanie Brinley, associate director of research at S&PGlobal Mobility. “There’s nothing wrong with having a basic car as a first car. It’s a reasonable expectation to have a lower feature point.”
Analysts don’t expect a vehicle like Fisker’s PEAR – an acronym for Personal Electric Automotive Revolution – to compete with a bigger SUV like Ford’s gas-powered Explorer. Instead, the PEAR may look more like a smaller version of Honda’s CRV or Toyota’s RAV4, the two best-selling SUVs in the U.S. last year, according to Goodcarbadcar.net. They sell for as low as $27,500 for the RAV4, which is four inches longer than the PEAR’s expected 177-inch length, and just under $30,000 for the larger CRV.
Tesla’s initial low-cost car, known colloquially as a Model 2, is expected to be a hatchback, most likely made at the company’s coming factory in Monterrey, Mexico, with some production possible at Tesla’s Austin, Texas facility, Ives said. Likely comparable models for the next-generation Tesla and other cheap EVs include the Honda Civic or Toyota’s Corolla, which retail for base prices of $25,050 and $21,550, respectively, according to Brinley. Their U.S. unit sales rank 9th and 13th among all models, and tops among compact sedans, according to Goodcarbadcar. Other similar cars include Hyundai’s Kona and Honda’s Fit.
The lowest-cost EVs may have as little as 250 miles of range between charges, similar to the existing $28,000 Nissan Leaf and cars like Hyundai’s Kona that sell in the mid-$30,000-range now, letting consumers save by going for a smaller, cheaper battery, CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson said.
Brinley says consumers are unlikely to accept less than that, and will likely insist that even less-pricey EVs keep popular safety features like lane-departure warnings. Consumers may accept a shorter range in exchange for lower cost because they use a PEAR as a second car or use it in cities, where short trips with time to recharge in between are common, Fisker CEO Henrik Fisker said on the company’s Feb. 27 earnings call.
“They may not need to carry around a giant expensive battery, if they’re only using [it] as a city car,” Fisker said. “So we’ll offer some different variations there.”
For market leader Tesla, the key to pulling costs down from the $41,990 list price of the Model 3 standard range begins with new or reimagined factories, vastly greater scale and advances in battery technology, Nelson and Ives said. Ives said battery costs have another 30 to 50 percent to fall after years of decline.
At the No. 2 U.S. EV maker, Ford expects simple scale economies to improve EVs’ operating profit margins by 20 percentage points by 2026, according to a presentation to analysts on the company webcast on March 23. Another 25 points of margin will come from falling battery costs, and from redesigning vehicles so they can use smaller batteries, said Ford CFO John Lawler. Fisker has moved to save by outsourcing production of the PEAR to Foxconn.
How Tesla plans to lower costs
Tesla devoted the biggest chunk of its March 1 investor day to explaining its next-generation strategy, which it said will drive down unit production costs that are already low by another 50%. While Elon Musk has been dogged by a history of over-promising and under-delivering — at least by the original deadline — this is a trick the company says it has already accomplished once, when moving from the premium-priced Model S and Model X vehicles to a lineup dominated now by the Model 3 and Model Y.
The keys include new, bigger factories and a design that makes vehicles’ large, flat battery do double duty as the floor of the car. Those moves let Tesla assemble cars in a different order, skipping steps like removing doors after painting to let workers install seats and other interior components, resulting in less downtime during production, Lars Moravy, Tesla’s vice president of vehicle engineering, said at the investor day. The company’s new power train factories have 65% lower costs than what they replace, he added.
Tesla argues that its vertical integration, in which it designs its own batteries and much of its manufacturing equipment and software, will drive costs down further. Tesla said its overall efforts have driven the cost of drive units, which include the car’s electric motor, as low as $1,000.
“We don’t think any other automaker is even close to that number,” vice president of drivetrain engineering Colin Campbell said, a contention backed by engineering firm Munro & Associates, which says suppliers to other automakers charge $2,500 or more for similar systems.
“That’s big news,” Cory Steuben, Munro president, said.
While Tesla hopes the entry-level car will cement its role as a carmaker that can serve all segments of the market, automakers have spent years reducing their footprint in the less-profitable low end of the market, preferring to concentrate on larger vehicles with wider profit margins. Indeed, a spokesman for Hyundai’s U.S. operation said in an e-mail that the company has no plans to introduce a lower-end EV. No low-end Fords have been announced either. GM will add the Equinox to its existing Bolt sedan, which starts at $26,500 – itself down almost $6,000 for the 2023 model year. A majority of the EV sales that allowed GM to surpass Ford as No. 2 behind Tesla, though still far behind, have been the Bolt.
“At this moment a $25,000 [battery electric vehicle] is difficult without compromising driving range,” Hyundai said in the statement. “Eventually, Hyundai expects ICE and BEV models to reach price parity, but the exact timing is still unclear.”
The solution to low profits in lower-end electric cars, the companies hope, will be to load them with options, just as mid-priced cars and trucks do, Nelson said. In Tesla’s case, this might mean battery upgrades and subscriptions to services, or even a version that lets drivers deploy the vehicle for autonomous rideshare driving while the owner stays home, Nelson added. Or automakers can simply try to sell buyers of smaller EVs on leather seats, more powerful batteries and premium stereos, counting on the same forces that make some Civic buyers pay $43,000-plus for the sportier Type R version or push some Model 3s as high as $79,000.
Or the automakers might simply not make the new vehicles as inexpensive as they are promising now, Brinley said.
“Tesla hasn’t hit a price point yet,” she said.
The real answer depends on exactly how far costs come down, and how aggressively Tesla lowers prices, if at all, as healing supply chains and its own falling costs empower it to squeeze some of the recent inflation in car prices out of the market.
“Everybody is watching to see where Tesla heads,” Ives said. “That’s going to dictate pricing and competition in the market.”
For years, Tesla has been the go-to EV recommendation for “normals” looking for a painless, low-effort experience from their first electric cars. In light of questionable recalls and its CEO’s recent involvement in controversial politics, however, people are starting to distance themselves from the trailblazing company.
All that begs the question: what should we recommend to EV noobs now?
Despite early quality issues and ongoing service headaches, the groundbreaking S3XY lineup of EVs have always had a secret weapon in the form of the Tesla Supercharger network.
That network of dependable high-speed chargers, paired with solid app integration that makes it easy for Tesla drivers to find available chargers just about anywhere in the US, gave the brand a leg up – but no more. By opening up the Supercharger network to brands like Ford, Hyundai, Kia, and others, Tesla has given away its biggest competitive advantage.
Add in charging and route-planning apps like Chargeway, that make navigating the transition from CCS to NACS easier than ever with its intuitive colors and numbers and easy on/off switch for vehicles equipped with NACS adapters, and it feels like the time is right to start suggesting alternatives to the old EV industry stalwarts. As such, that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
Here, then, are my picks for the best Tesla S3XY (and Cybertruck) alternatives you can buy.
Less Model S, more Lucid Air
Developed by OG Tesla Model S engineers with tunes from Annie Get Your Gun playing continuously in their heads, the Lucid Air promises to be the car Tesla should and could have built, if only Elon had listened to the engineers.
With panel fit, material finish, and overall build quality that’s at least as good as anything else in the automotive space, the Lucid Air is a compelling alternative to the Model S at every price level – and I, for one, would take a “too f@#king fast” Lucid Air Sapphire over an “as seen on TV” Model S Plaid any day of the week. And, with Supercharger access reportedly coming later this quarter, Air buyers will have every advantage the Supercharger Network can provide.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Less Model 3, more Hyundai IONIQ 6
Hyundai has been absolutely killing it these days, with EVs driving record sales and new models earning rave reviews from the automotive press. Even in that company the IONIQ 6 stands out, with up to 338 miles of EPA-rated range and lickety-quick 350 kW charging available to make road tripping easy – especially now that the aerodynamically efficient IONIQ 6 has Supercharger access through a NACS adapter (the 2026 “facelift” models get a NACS port as standard).
The company’s sole electric sedan hasn’t seen the same sales success as IONIQ 5, of course – but that has more to do with America’s insatiable lust for crossovers and SUVs than any shortcoming inherent in the IONIQ 6 itself. All the same, Hyundai is helping dealers clear out its remaining 2024 and ’25 models with 0% financing for up to 48 months through June 2nd.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Less Model X, more Volvo EX90
Once upon a time, Mrs. Jo Borrás and I were shopping three-row SUVs and found ourselves genuinely drawn to the then-new Model X. Back then it was the only three-row EV on the market, but it wasn’t Elon’s antics or access to charging, or even the Model X’s premium pricing that squirreled the deal. It was the stupid doors.
We went with the similarly new Volvo XC90 T8 in denim blue, and followed up the big PHEV with a second, three years later, in Osmium Gray. When it’s time to replace this one, you can just about bet your house that the new 510 hp EX90 with 310 miles of all-electric range will be near the top of the shopping list.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Less Model Y, more Kia EV6
If half the fun of driving a Model Y is terrifying your passengers with its straight-line speed, then the Kia EV6 has to be a serious contender for a replacement.
The sporty EV6 GT made its global debut by drag racing some of the fastest ICE-powered cars of the day, including a Lamborghini, Mercedes-AMG GT, a Porsche, even a turbocharged Ferrari – and it beat the pants off ’em. Combine supercar-baiting speed with an accessible price tag, NACS accessibility, $10,000 in customer cash on remaining 2024 models ($3,000 on 2025s) and just a hint of Lancia Stratos in the styling, the EV6 is tough to beat.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Less Cybertruck, more therapy
It’s not bulletproof, it’s not easy to upfit, it shouldn’t be used for towing, and it won’t win in a straight fight against a vinyl picket fence. By just about every standard “truck” metric, the Tesla Cybertruck falls short against the competition from Chevrolet, Ford, and Rivian. On a more subjective front, the Cybertruck has become a symbol for a conservative movement that is (depending on your point of view) either making America great again or plunging a once-great democracy into an era of fascist oligarchy and widespread stupidity.
In short, it’s probably best to skip the CT.
If you disagree with that statement and feel like driving a new Tesla Cybertruck is the key to happiness, I’m not sure an equally ostentatious GMC Hummer EV or more subtle Rivian R1T will help you scratch that particular itch – but maybe therapy might!
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Original content from Electrek.
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Republicans launched multiple attacks against EVs, clean air and American jobs this week, at the behest of the oil industry that funds them. These attacks won’t be successful, and EVs will continue to grow regardless, and inevitably take over for outdated gasoline vehicles.
However, these republican attacks on EVs will still have some effect: they will diminish the US auto industry globally, leading to job losses and surrendering one of the jewels in the crown of American industry to China, where there is no similar effort to destroy its own domestic EV industry.
Republican attacks on clean air this week included moves to block funding that has led to a renaissance in US manufacturing and also to illegally block clean air laws. They also moved forward with a procedural step towards increasing US fuel costs by $23B, an effort which the former reality TV contestant posing as the head of the DOT announced in January.
These moves shouldn’t be a big surprise – republicans have opposed clean air and American jobs for many years now, and they’re doing it because they want to maintain the bribes they get from the oil industry.
But they should inspire worry for Americans, because they will only harm the country’s domestic manufacturing base in the face of a changing auto industry.
Republicans keep trying to kill clean cars
The last time a republican occupied the the White House, we saw similar efforts to try to raise fuel and health costs for Americans, and to block superior EV technology from flourishing. That didn’t work in the end, and EVs continued to grow both during that period and after.
All the while, fossil fuels have maintained their privileged policy position, being allowed to pollute with impunity and costing the US $760 billion per year in externalized costs. Much of that subsidy is accounted for in the cost of pollution from gas cars, which are one of the primary uses of fossil fuels, which means that, in fact, gasoline vehicles receive much more subsidy than EVs do.
And yet, EVs still managed to grow substantially, despite these headwinds. EV sales have continued to grow, both in the US and globally, even as headlines incorrectly say otherwise. The republican party’s attempts to kill them were futile, and will continue to be.
It didn’t work, but it did delay progress
However, anti-EV actions from Mr. Trump and the republican party did manage to delay progress from where it could have been if America actually instituted smart industrial policy earlier.
What if, instead of the bumbling, idiotic nonsense we went through the last time Mr. Trump squatted in the White House, we could have had something more like President Biden’s EV policy, which created hundreds of thousands of jobs and attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of manufacturing investment?
Surely the American auto industry would be ahead of where it is now if those investments had had time to come online. But instead, republicans are currently trying to kill those jobs, which has already led to several manufacturing projects being cancelled this year, depriving Americans of the economic boost they need right now.
Meanwhile, there’s one place that this sort of stumbling isn’t happening: China.
China is taking advantage
China has spent more than a decade focusing on securing material supply, building refining capacity, developing their own battery technology, and encouraging local EV manufacturing startups.
This has paid off recently, as Chinese EVs have been rapidly scaling in production in recent years. It took a lot of the auto industry by surprise how rapidly Chinese companies have scaled, and how rapidly Chinese consumers have adopted them, after having an initially slow start.
But that adoption hasn’t just been local, it’s also global. Last year, China became the largest auto exporter in the world, taking a crown that Japan had held for decades. But the change was even more dramatic than that – as recently as 2020, China was the sixth-largest auto exporter in the world, just behind the US in 5th place.
China’s dramatic turn upward started in 2020, and now it’s in first place. Meanwhile, because of all the faffing about, the US remains exactly where it was in 2020 – still in fifth place. Well, sixth now, since China eclipsed us (and everyone else).
Tariffs won’t fix it
The reaction of the rest of the world’s automaking countries has been to put tariffs on Chinese autos, hoping to forestall the country’s dramatic rise to dominance. (Although, due to Mr. Trump’s idiotic flailing, Europe is already talking about removing these trade barriers with China)
But tariffs have been tried before, and they didn’t work. When Japan had a similarly meteoric rise to global prominence as an auto manufacturer in the 1970s and 80s, largely due to their adoption of new technology, processes, and different car styles which incumbents were ignoring, the US tried to stop it with tariffs.
All this did was make US manufacturers complacent, and Japan still managed to seize and maintain the crown of top auto exporter (occasionally trading places with Germany) from then until now.
Then as now, the true way to compete is to adapt to the changing automotive industry and take EVs seriously, rather than giving the auto industry excuses to be complacent. But instead, republicans aren’t doing that, and in fact are working to ensure the American auto industry doesn’t adapt, by actively killing the incentives that were leading to a boom in domestic manufacturing investment.
US auto industry jeopardized by republicans
Make no mistake about it: destroying EV incentives, and allowing companies to pollute more and innovate less, will not help the US auto industry catch up with a fast moving competitor.
As we at Electrek have said for years, you cannot catch up to a competitor that is both ahead of you and moving faster than you.
This applies to individual companies, which took their sweet time responding to the challenge from electric upstarts like Tesla, and have now lost market share to said upstarts and let a competitor establish itself in a big way (even though Tesla’s CEO is now trying desperately to harm his own company specifically, and the US EV industry as a whole, by being the largest funder of the party working to destroy said industry).
It also applies to nations, which could have spent the last decade doing what the Chinese auto industry has been doing, but instead non-Chinese automakers have been begging their governments for more time, even though it’s not the regulations that threaten them, it’s competition from a new and motivated rival that is moving faster and in a more determined manner towards the future.
The way that we get around this should be clear: take EVs seriously.
But that’s not what republicans are doing, and in doing so, they are signing the death warrant for an important US industry in the long term.
Another thing republicans are trying to kill is the the rooftop solar credit, which means you could have only until the end of this year to install rooftop solar on your home before the cost of doing so goes up by an average of ~$10,000. So if you want to go solar, get started now, because these things take time and the system needs to be active before you file for the credit.
To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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International equipment manufacturer Vermeer has unveiled a full-scale prototype of its Interlune excavator, a machine designed to ingest 100 metric tons of rocks and dirt per hour, extracting valuable helium as it makes its way across the surface … of the Moon.
Helium plays a critical role in the manufacturing of semiconductors, chips, optics, and all the other stuff that makes EVs, autonomy, the Internet, and the rest of twenty-first century life possible. The problem is that, despite being the second-most common element in the universe, helium is pretty rare on Earth – and we are rapidly running out. As such, there are intense economic and political pressures to find new and reliable sources of helium somewhere, anywhere else, and that demand has sparked a new modern space race focused on harvesting helium on the Moon and getting it back home.
To that end, companies like American lunar mining startup Interlune and the Iowa-based equipment experts at Vermeer are partnering on the development of suite of interplanetary equipment assets capable of digging up lunar materials like rocks and sand from up to three meters below the surface, extract helium-3 (a light, stable isotope of helium believed to exist in abundance on the Moon), then package it, contain it, and ship it back to Earth.
“When you’re operating equipment on the Moon, reliability and performance standards are at a new level,” says Rob Meyerson, Interlune CEO. “Vermeer has a legacy of innovation and excellence that started more than 75 years ago, which makes them the ideal partner for Interlune.”
Enter: Japan
America isn’t the only spacefaring nation eyeing a helium mine on the Moon. Japan announced similar plans back in 2023, with Japanese construction giant Komatsu announcing plans to develop a fully electric excavator capable of operating on the lunar surface.
The company showed a scaled prototype of the machine at the 2025 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas (above), emphasizing the need to develop new ways to operate equipment assets in the extreme temperatures of extraplanetary environments beyond diesel or even hydrogen combustion.
On the airless surface of the moon, it would be impossible for an internal combustion engine to operate on the moon’s surface because there is no oxygen for combustion. Electrically powered machines seem the obvious solution with solar power generation supplying the electricity. But the answer is not that simple.
Temperature changes on the surface of the moon are extreme. They can soar to 110° C and plummet to -170° C. Developing electric construction machinery to perform in this environment is no easy task, but Komatsu is tackling issues one by one as they appear. Using thermal control and other electrification technologies, we are engineering solutions.
Despite Komatsu’s apparent head start, however, Vermeer seem to pulled ahead – not just in terms of machine development, but in terms of extraction potential as well.
“The high-rate excavation needed to harvest helium-3 from the Moon in large quantities has never been attempted before, let alone with high efficiency,” said Gary Lai, Interlune co-founder and CTO. “Vermeer’s response to such an ambitious assignment was to move fast. We’ve been very pleased with the results of the test program to date and look forward to the next phase of development.”
Interlune is funded by grants from the US Department of Energy and NASA TechFlights. In 2023, the company received a National Science Foundation (NSF) Small Business Innovation Research award to develop the technology to size and sort lunar regolith (read: dirt). Interlune has raised $18 million in funding so far, and is planning its first mission to the Moon before 2030.
Electrek’s Take
We’ve got space travel, weird mineral extraction from another planet that’s essential for our technology, and a rapid, unchecked proliferation of AI. All we need now is big worms, a whole bunch of hallucinogenic narcotics, and the will to smash up a bunch of data centers with baseball bats – then we’ll have a pretty decent Dune LARP going. Yee-ha!
SOURCE | IMAGES: Interlune.
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