‘We’re all gonna have to deal with it together’: Fernando Tatis Jr.’s teammates have his back as he returns
FERNANDO TATIS JR.‘S highly anticipated return to baseball will begin when he leads off Thursday night’s game from Chase Field in Phoenix. Boos will inevitably reign down, the hostility that promised to surround him will instantly be felt. But the greatest challenge of his most important season might begin shortly thereafter, in the bottom half of the first inning, when he bypasses his original position of shortstop and ventures out to his new spot in right field. Confronting the backlash of a steroid-related scandal can be exceedingly difficult for any player. Nelson Cruz thinks it’s toughest on the outfielders.
“You’re out there alone,” he said. “You hear everything.”
In January 2013, a decade before he would join Tatis on this year’s San Diego Padres, Cruz was among those linked to Biogenesis, the Florida-based anti-aging clinic that became notorious for distributing performance-enhancing drugs. A 50-game suspension followed in August. And the time between was spent occupying right field for the Texas Rangers. Every road game offered its own unique blend of boos and jeers, the most prominent of which were heard during the quiet moments between balls in play. Now Tatis will confront the same obstacle.
His only path, Cruz believes, is forward.
“He’s gotta go out there and do his job,” Cruz said. “That’s the only way he can shut up the noise.”
It has been more than 18 months since Tatis played in a real game with real stakes. The 2022 season began with an injury to his wrist and ended with a positive test for an anabolic steroid. His return, therefore, is clouded with uncertainty. There are questions surrounding how his body will respond to two surgeries, how his offense will be impacted by the down time, how his skills will translate to a new position, how his mind will process the negative energy that follows him. One aspect that shouldn’t be doubted, Padres manager Bob Melvin believes, is whether his teammates will accept him.
The news of Tatis’ 80-game, PED-related suspension on Aug. 12 came less than five months after it was learned he had fractured his left wrist during an offseason motorcycle accident, drawing pointed criticism from within his clubhouse. Key members of the Padres were publicly and privately irked at what they believed was a lack of accountability and maturity from Tatis, a sentiment that festered until he addressed them 11 days later. Now, Melvin asserted, “They’ve embraced him.”
“Because of the way he handled it,” Melvin explained. “The way he went to everybody and opened up and was remorseful. And you could tell he was being authentic. He wasn’t just having these conversations just to have them, to check the box. It wasn’t anything like that. And you could feel that.”
When Tatis led a 15- to 20-minute players-only meeting on Aug. 23, he asked for forgiveness but also for help. Subsequent comments from some of the team’s core members painted him as genuine and sincere. Tatis followed by undergoing the left shoulder surgery the Padres recommended a year earlier and later a second cleanup of his injured left wrist. He returned to San Diego in the first week of the new year to begin preparations for the 2023 season, then was among the first to report to the team’s spring training complex in February.
A new season provided a clean slate with his teammates. Tatis’ work ethic set a positive tone. His free spirit and infectious energy often made it seem as if he’d never left.
“I see an excited kid that’s trying to move past a mistake he made,” pitcher Joe Musgrove, one of the team’s leaders, said early in spring training. “He’s talked about it a lot — about how he feels like he lost himself, made some poor decisions and was hanging with people he shouldn’t be hanging around. He was very open and honest about what happened, how he felt about it. You can see this offseason — there’s a level of excitement, a level of energy and passion. You can tell he’s really trying to make that step of getting himself past it and show the world the athlete that he is and the player he’s capable of being.”
Tatis, who turned 24 in January, has quickly gone from one of the sport’s most celebrated prodigies to one of its foremost antiheroes. It’s a circumstance he has readily acknowledged, but one he has referred to as “a challenge,” not unlike anything he might encounter within the boundaries of his profession. He has spoken often about his desire to “embrace” the vitriol. Now it appears he’ll have help.
“We’re all gonna have to deal with it together,” Manny Machado said, “as a team.”
MELVIN’S FIRST SEASON with the Padres, in 2022, didn’t offer many opportunities to connect with Tatis. The ensuing offseason was a chance to make up for lost time. Melvin historically leaves his players alone during the winter, but he felt an obligation to keep in touch with Tatis.
Often the exchanges were lighthearted. Melvin would send videos of hiking trails he’d find in Arizona, a subject in which the two found commonality. Tatis would follow up with pictures of the sun setting on his native Dominican Republic. Occasionally, when it felt natural, they would engage in deeper conversations about what took place and what would follow. Melvin’s message often centered on how quickly this will all move past him once the games begin to pile up and the monotony of a routine sets in. He told Tatis he might someday look back on this positively.
“Things came so easy for him in baseball, and now all of a sudden he had to go through something he wasn’t used to,” Melvin said. “I think he can end up being better for it.”
One of the clearest signs presented itself in late February, on the morning of Tatis’ first spring training game. Melvin took the Padres job in large part because he wanted to manage Tatis, one of the sport’s singular talents. But he spent an entire year without being able to write Tatis’ name in the lineup. When he finally did, Tatis acknowledged the significance. “I’m finally in there for you,” Tatis told him.
“That meant a lot to me,” Melvin said recently. “It just kind of showed you where he was in this process.”
Tatis, allowed to play in exhibition games under the terms of his suspension, began with an eight-pitch walk that was followed by a stolen base. Over his next 18 plate appearances, he reached base only twice and didn’t produce a single hit. He was particularly late on fastballs. But he was making sound swing decisions and his body was recovering better than he expected. An 0-for-16 start to Cactus League play turned into a 12-for-26 finish.
His experience in the outfield followed a similar path. On March 2, Tatis misread a fly ball during his first start in right field, taking a circuitous route and watching the baseball carom off his glove. Two days later, he turned in a nifty sliding catch. He displayed both ends of the spectrum within the same at-bat on March 17, misreading a foul popup that ultimately dropped and then tracking down a line drive to prevent a double. Ten days later, after a handful of aggressive throws that prevented extra bases, he recorded his first outfield assist.
Tatis’ newfound enthusiasm toward the outfield, a position he didn’t quite embrace in 2021, has seemed to resonate in his clubhouse. He grew up wanting to be the Dominican Derek Jeter, a pursuit that ended — or, at the very least, paused — when the Padres signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million contract in December. But he has readily accepted the change.
“He certainly has aspirations to play shortstop in the future, as he should,” Melvin said. “But there’s an understanding that this is best for our team, and that’s just kind of the way he’s going about it.”
Twenty games remained on Tatis’ suspension when the Padres broke camp in late March, but he declared himself “ready right now.” He proved it during a subsequent rehab stint with the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate, an eight-game stretch in which he slashed .515/.570/1.212 and accumulated seven home runs. Six came in his past three games.
Five came in a stretch of seven at-bats.
Tatis turned on a fastball out over the plate in the second inning last Thursday and sent a prodigious drive into the lawn that resides beyond the outfield fence at Southwest University Park in El Paso, Texas, slightly to the left of the center field batter’s eye. He followed by homering on a line drive in the fourth and a fly ball in the eighth, each pulled a tad more than the other, then smoked two baseballs that left the stadium entirely two days later — one to left field, the other to right-center.
Brett Sullivan, a journeyman catcher who was recently called up to the major leagues, watched them all from the dugout.
“The first two you’re like, ‘Hey, I get it, he’s that good,'” Sullivan said. “And then by the third one you’re like, ‘Oh my gosh, he’s locked in.’ And then to go [again] the first game next at-bat, we all started laughing. And then he does it again and you’re like, ‘This guy’s a made-up player.'”
Tatis returned to the Padres’ clubhouse on Monday, for the first of three straight workouts that preceded his return, and Bogaerts told him it seemed as if he were playing a video game. His presence brought a discernable energy.
“You can sense it,” Bogaerts said. “There’s a lot of talk — positive talk, positive vibes. This is a once-in-a-generation-type talent that we’re here to see, and I’m so happy that he’s on our team.”
Bogaerts represents one of four Padres regulars who have yet to play with Tatis, a sign of both how long he has been out and how aggressively the roster has turned over. His suspension occurred 10 days after Padres general manager A.J. Preller emptied his farm system to acquire Juan Soto, who has drawn comparisons to Ted Williams for his advanced feel of hitting. Bogaerts, a four-time All-Star with the Boston Red Sox, has since been added to the mix, sharing the left side of the infield with Machado, who is halfway into a Hall of Fame career.
Tatis will return to lead off in front of all three of them, representing one of the most decorated foursomes in recent memory.
“It’s gonna be really fun,” Soto said.
THOSE WHO HAVE watched Tatis this year have noticed someone who’s outwardly happy to be back but is also committed to maintaining that joy in his play. After throwing out his first runner in spring training, Tatis strutted and and pretended to holster a gun with his fingers. On home runs, he continued to perform his patented stutter-step upon reaching third base, then boisterously celebrated with teammates in the dugout. The threat of backlash has seemingly done nothing to dilute the flair and the swagger that once turned Tatis into a transcendent star. If anything, it has helped accentuate it.
“One of the things we talked about early on was at some point you’re gonna have to forgive yourself and just kinda move past it and try to show everybody who you really are and what’s in there,” Musgrove said. “It’s very easy to walk around and feel like you have to have this certain sense of remorse or you have to show everyone how bad you feel for what you did, but I think he’s done that already and he’s shown what he’s about and the things that he’s gonna do to fix that.”
Tatis’ return to the public consciousness occurred in early February, when the Padres trotted him out as part of a community outreach event, joining members of the Marines and visiting children at a local elementary school. The following day, Tatis was presented alongside Machado, Soto and Bogaerts, and showered with love during a fan fest that was attended by nearly 50,000 residents of San Diego.
Reality hit shortly thereafter. Tatis was roundly booed when the team played in front of a heavy contingent of Los Angeles Dodgers fans at Camelback Ranch on March 8. When he hit his first minor league home run on April 5, the pitcher who gave it up, Kade McClure, called him a “cheater” on Twitter. The animosity will only heighten when the stage gets bigger, particularly from road fans but perhaps also from his own peers.
“He has to be himself if he’s gonna be the player that he is,” Melvin said. “It doesn’t matter what anybody else thinks of him; it just matters what we think of him.”
Colorado Rockies outfielder Jurickson Profar, one of Tatis’ closest friends and most ardent supporters on last year’s Padres, has offered similar advice.
“‘Just be you,'” Profar recalled telling him. “‘Play your game, and people are going to love you.’ All the kids, they’re going to love him — because of the way he plays. He’s an exciting baseball player.”
Profar and Tatis still communicate almost daily and, as of the first week of April, were still trying to decide on their annual wager. Usually they settle on who will hit the most home runs, a bet Profar always loses. Profar, who has the benefit of spending his home games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field this season, was instead thinking of making it doubles. But he didn’t feel good about that, either.
“I know he’s gonna be fine,” Profar said of Tatis. “He will find a way to be great.”
Tatis accumulated 39 home runs, 27 stolen bases, a .956 OPS and 6.4 FanGraphs wins above replacement through his first 143 major league games from 2019 to 2020. The Padres rewarded him with what was billed as a “statue contract” — a massive 14-year, $340 million extension — in February 2021, a month after his 22nd birthday, then watched him finish third in MVP voting despite battling a series of shoulder subluxations.
The events that followed completely altered the perception of Tatis and prevented him from doing what he loves most for an entire year. While the Padres made a stirring run to the National League Championship Series last October, Tatis watched from his couch.
“That gave me a lot of fuel,” he said shortly before reporting for spring training. “Trust me.”
Tatis’ return is expected to provide an instant jolt to a team that has lost six of eight games and has scored only two runs over its past 35 innings. As the season plays out, observers expect Tatis to take some overly aggressive routes on fly balls but also expect his arm strength and agility to serve him well in right field. On offense, they think he’ll be the same dynamic hitter and will thrive off the new rules that have allowed for more stolen bases.
Said Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth: “I think a lot of people are forgetting how special he is as a player.”
The big question, of course, revolves around how he’ll ultimately be remembered.
Encouragement can be found within his clubhouse.
Cruz, now a 42-year-old designated hitter for the Padres, has become one of the game’s most celebrated players, a prominent philanthropist revered by his peers and treated like royalty among Latin-born players. His ties to steroids are forever a part of his story, but they are no longer his defining characteristic. Cruz envisions similar possibilities for Tatis, noting how young and charismatic he is and how much baseball lies ahead.
“Two years from now,” Cruz said, “he will be a superstar and this will be in the past.”
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Max Olson
Transfer portal season in college football is officially moving to January.
The NCAA Division I Cabinet formally approved a significant change to the transfer portal process Tuesday, establishing a single offseason transfer portal window for FBS and FCS players Jan. 2-16, 2026, and eliminating the spring portal window in April.
What will this mean for coaches, players and roster management across the sport this offseason? Here’s a breakdown of what comes next.
What do coaches think of this change?
While head coaches have been wanting to see a single portal window in college football for years, they didn’t all agree that January is the best answer for the sport.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day told reporters it “doesn’t make any sense” that playoff teams will have to make decisions on next year’s roster while they’re still competing for a national championship.
Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said most Big Ten coaches wanted to move the portal window to April or May, citing the timing of revenue-sharing payments as another factor, because Nebraska pays its players from July 1 to June 30.
“We’re going to have players getting paid by two different teams in the same year,” Rhule said. “It doesn’t make any sense to me.”
SEC coaches came out in support of the January proposal, believing that it would ultimately be more problematic to put off these roster moves until the spring. They need to get their rosters set and their new players enrolled in January for offseason training and spring practice.
Several SEC coaches acknowledged it might not be easy for the last few teams in the College Football Playoff, but it’s the right change for everybody else.
“I’m sorry, there’s no crying on the yacht,” LSU coach Brian Kelly said.
Why is college football moving to one portal window?
The rules around the NCAA transfer portal have changed pretty much every year since it was first established in 2018. In 2024-25, college football players got a 20-day window to enter the portal in December and a 10-day window in April. Coaches have long been vocal about the negatives of the spring portal window outweighing the positives. College basketball has a single offseason portal window. The NFL has one big free agency period. Now college football does, too. We’ve seen contenders go get the final missing pieces for their upcoming season during the April portal window, and sometimes those last few needs don’t become obvious until a team goes through spring practice. Many players were able to earn big paydays in the most recent spring window simply because teams were desperate and eager to spend. Those are a few of the positives.
The negatives? Coaches, general managers and NIL collectives got tired of players signing deals in December and then asking for more money in April. Now that players are permitted unlimited transfers, they have a ton of leverage in the spring. The good ones can always get offered more money by someone else, and it’s not easy to replace starters who leave at the end of April. It’s worth noting, too, that coaches took advantage of the spring window to run off underperforming players and free up more scholarships.
The Nico Iamaleava drama at Tennessee earlier this year shined a brighter spotlight on these issues, and it can happen anywhere. There will inevitably still be plenty more disputes around NIL compensation between players and schools this offseason, but moving to a single portal window ideally means most of them get resolved by the end of January.
Why is the window moving from December to January?
In recent years, the transfer portal window has opened in early December on the Monday after conference championship games and bowl selections. That timing was logical from the standpoint that players are ready to move on to their next school at the end of the regular season. They’d have a few weeks to go through the recruiting process, take official visits and decide where they’d enroll in January.
For coaching staffs, though, the month of December is brutal. They’re juggling roster retention and transfer recruiting with the coaching carousel, high school signing day, and bowl practices and games. Earlier this year, FBS coaches held their annual AFCA meeting in Charlotte and emerged in agreement that it was time for portal season to move to January.
A major talking point at that time was the fact some players were leaving College Football Playoff teams to focus on their transfer process. Texas backup quarterback Maalik Murphy made that choice during the 2023 season, and Penn State’s Beau Pribula did the same in 2024. Some CFP teams did let players in the portal stay with the team to finish out the season, but coaches generally agree it’s unfair for players to be put in that predicament.
Can players enter the portal before Jan. 2?
All FBS and FCS players — including graduate transfers — must wait until Jan. 2 to officially enter the transfer portal and initiate contact with other schools. Grad transfers were previously allowed to enter the portal early but won’t be able to this offseason.
There is still an exception for players at programs that go through early coaching changes. UCLA, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State and Arkansas players were given a 30-day window to enter the portal after their head coaches were fired in September. The D-I Cabinet changed that rule earlier this week, too. Now if a school fires its head coach before or after the January portal window, players will get a 15-day window to transfer that opens five days after the school has hired or announced its next head coach.
We’re already seeing players decide to redshirt and leave their teams with the intention of entering the transfer portal after the season. Their agents are already in contact with GMs at other schools, but the players won’t be able to communicate with coaches or visit schools until January.
We’ve seen a few unique cases, though, that prove players can circumvent the portal to transfer to another school. Miami cornerback Xavier Lucas and Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff unenrolled from their former schools and joined new teams this offseason without officially entering their names in the portal. Players technically cannot be recruited unless they enter the portal during the window, but it’ll be interesting to see how many players still transfer after the January portal window closes and how they attempt to do so.
When do players on College Football Playoff teams transfer?
This year’s College Football Playoff semifinals, the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, will be played Jan. 8 and 9, respectively. Players on the losing teams will still have time to make moves before the portal window closes Jan. 16. But what about the teams still playing for the national title?
After the CFP National Championship game Jan. 19, players on those final two teams will have an opportunity to enter the transfer portal Jan. 20-24. We did see some activity after last season’s national title game, with six scholarship players from Notre Dame and four from Ohio State hitting the portal after their season was finally over.
The FCS national championship game is scheduled for Jan. 5, so the timing of the January window won’t be an issue for FCS players.
How much tampering will happen before January?
Short answer: an absurd amount.
Coaches might say they want a January portal window, but nobody is actually waiting until Jan. 2 to start pursuing transfers. Now that these players are repped by agents, the reality is these recruiting processes begin with conversations between agents and GMs throughout the season.
Last year, as schools prepared for the first year of revenue sharing in college athletics and general managers began taking the lead on contract negotiations, the agent-GM relationship became critical. Agents were already shopping around their clients in November. GMs were re-signing their returning players over the final weeks of the regular season before the portal opened. In many cases, by the time players were officially in the portal, they already had a good idea where they were going.
Though these programs were already operating with no fear of NCAA enforcement around tampering, they’re now going through the agent to persuade the players they’re hoping to add via the portal. One interesting element of this upcoming portal cycle to keep an eye on: Will we see more players signing with schools they’ve never visited? So many of these recruitments are likely to be wrapped up well before Jan. 2.
Will fewer players transfer this offseason?
The total number of offseason transfers has increased every year, and there was no reversing that trend once the NCAA had to abandon its one-time transfer rule last year. During the 2024-25 school year, more than 4,900 FBS players and more than 3,200 FCS players entered their names in the transfer portal.
The transfer windows were open for a total of 60 days when they debuted in 2022-23 and have been reduced to 45 days in 2023-24, then 30 last year and now 15. If the elimination of the spring transfer window does lead to fewer players transferring this offseason, coaches and administrators will consider that a major win. But it’s important to note the role revenue sharing will play, too.
Power 4 programs investing $10-15 million (or a lot more) on their rosters have the funds to bring back the players they don’t want to lose. Players can now sign multiyear deals with schools, too. These agreements are not exactly binding and won’t block players from transferring, but schools are hoping the commitments they’ve made to these players will help with retention.
Will these changes lead to more lawsuits?
Yes. Attorney Tom Mars predicted that “experienced antitrust lawyers will be at the courthouse before the sun comes up” if the NCAA moved forward with adopting the 15-day January window and eliminating the spring transfer window, arguing that these reforms will have concerning anticompetitive effects that limit player mobility and can’t be justified when less restrictive alternatives exist.
Preliminary injunctions from federal courts brought the end of the one-time transfer rule and forced the NCAA to halt its investigations into collectives and third-party NIL deals, and the NCAA is currently facing several eligibility lawsuits. The NCAA and conference commissioners have been lobbying Congress for years and are hoping the SCORE Act can provide antitrust protections if it can get passed. For now, though, it’s a safe bet that we’ll see legal challenges to the new transfer rules in the months ahead.
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Dan Wetzel
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Dan Wetzel
ESPN
Dan Wetzel is a senior writer focused on investigative reporting, news analysis and feature storytelling.
The Big Ten is closing in on voting on a private capital agreement that will infuse league schools with more than $2 billion, industry sources told ESPN.
There’s been momentum within recent days for the deal to push forward, and the structure of the complicated agreement is coming together. A vote is expected in the near future, per sources.
The framework calls for the formation of a new entity, Big Ten Enterprises, which would hold all leaguewide media rights and sponsorship contracts.
Shares of ownership in Big Ten Enterprises would fall to the league’s 18 schools, the conference office and the capital group — an investment fund that’s tied to the University of California pension system. Yahoo Sports first reported the involvement of the UC investment fund.
The pension fund is not a private equity firm, and the UC fund valuation proved to be higher than other competing bids. This has been attractive to the Big Ten and its schools, according to sources.
A source familiar with the deal said there’s been momentum in recent days, but the league is still working with leadership to make a final decision.
The exact equity amounts per school in Big Ten Enterprises is still being negotiated. There is expected to be a small gap in equity percentage between the biggest brands and others, however it is likely to be less than a percentage point.
ESPN reported last week that a tiered structure is expected in the initial allocation of the $2 billion-plus in capital, with larger brands receiving more money. Each school, however, would receive a payout in at least the nine-figure range, sources said.
The deal would call for an extension of the league’s Grant of Rights through 2046, providing long-term stability and making further expansion and any chance league schools leave for the formation of a so-called “Super League” unlikely.
Traditional conference functions are expected to remain with the conference. Any decision-making within Big Ten Enterprises would be controlled by the conference. The UC pension fund would receive a 10% stake in Big Ten Enterprises and hold typical minority investor rights but no direct control.
The money infusion is acutely needed at a number of Big Ten schools that are struggling with debt service on new construction, rising operational expenses and providing additional scholarships and direct revenue ($20.5 million this year and expected to rise annually) to athletes.
The Big Ten has argued that the deal would alleviate financial strain and help middle- and lower-tier Big Ten schools compete in football against the SEC.
ESPN first reported last week that the league was in detailed conversations about the deal.
Big Ten Enterprises would be tasked with not just handling the league’s valuable media rights (the current seven-year, $7 billion package runs through 2030) but trying to maximize sponsorship and advertising deals leaguewide such as jersey patches or on-field logos.
“Think of it this way — the conference is not selling a piece of the conference,” a league source told ESPN last week. “Traditional conference functions would remain 100 percent with the conference office — scheduling, officiating and championships. The new entity being created would focus on business development, and it would include an outside investor with a small financial stake.”
The deal has not been without detractors, with both Michigan and Ohio State — the league’s two wealthiest athletic programs — expressing skepticism initially, per sources. Each school has been hit with significant lobbying not just from the league office but also other conference members to come to an agreement.
Politicians in a number of states have also voiced opposition, including United States Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA) who stated Thursday, “You’re going to let someone take and monetize what is really a public resource? …That’s a real problem.”
Cantwell followed up Friday by sending a letter to each Big Ten president warning that any deal involving private equity could invite review, including impacting the schools’ tax-exempt status.
Sports
MLB division series: How Mariners and Tigers can each win decisive Game 5, plus lineups and analysis
This is October baseball at its finest!
It’s time for a win-or-go-home Game 5 in the American League Division Series between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers at T-Mobile Park.
The Tigers, who entered these playoffs as the No. 6 seed, will look to ride their momentum from a dominant Game 4 win in Detroit on Wednesday to a second consecutive victory. The Mariners, the No. 2 seed with home field advantage, hope to secure their first trip to the American League Championship Series since 2001.
Which team will come out on top to face the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL pennant?
We’ve got you covered with pregame lineups and the keys to Game 5 along with takeaways after the final out.
Series tied 2-2
Game 5 starters: Tarik Skubal vs. George Kirby
Key to winning Game 5 for Seattle: In 1997, Hall of Famer Randy Johnson went 20-4 with a 2.28 ERA for the Mariners. One team, however, had his number: He started five times against the Orioles, including twice in the ALDS, and the Mariners lost all five games.
Skubal is the 2025 version of Johnson — and the 2025 Mariners seem to have his number. In his second start of the season, the Mariners beat him 3-2. In July, they scored four runs off of him in five innings, including a Julio Rodriguez home run, and won 12-3. In Game 2 of this series, Jorge Polanco homered twice as Skubal left trailing 2-0, with the Mariners eventually winning 3-2. Three Skubal starts, three Mariners victories.
Now, Seattle has to do it a fourth time, and the pitching staff will have to shut down the Tigers. It’s hard to string together hits against Skubal, so the Mariners will need to hit a home run or two (when Skubal doesn’t allow a home run this year, he’s 12-1). They won’t necessarily try to run up his pitch count — since they might try to attack early in the count and avoid his wipeout change — but Skubal has thrown more than 100 pitches just four times this season, so trying to do that and get him out after six innings is another potential path to victory. Mostly, the Mariners will need a hero to step up and beat the best pitcher in the AL. — David Schoenfield
Key to winning Game 5 for Detroit: Yes, the most-cited stat related to this series is Seattle’s 3-0 record when facing Skubal this season. That fact can be taken as a source of optimism (We have his number!) or anxiety (No way we beat that guy a fourth time!). But the Mariners have done a solid job of getting into hitter’s counts against Skubal and then doing damage once they do. At the same time, the Tigers haven’t scored in the early innings of any of those games, which has also been a problem during the postseason. Scoring a couple of runs early would be huge for Detroit and for Skubal, as it would allow him to attack the zone and avoid those hitter’s counts. I don’t really think the Mariners have Skubal’s number, but he’s not infallible. He does need his offense, however, to give him at least a sliver of a margin for error. — Bradford Doolittle
Lineups
Tigers
1. Kerry Carpenter (L) RF
2. Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
3. Riley Greene (L) LF
4. Spencer Torkelson (R) 1B
5. Colt Keith (L) DH
6. Zach McKinstry (L) 3B
7. Dillon Dingler (R) C
8. Parker Meadows (L) CF
9. Javier Baez (R) SS
Mariners
1. Randy Arozarena (R) LF
2. Cal Raleigh (S) C
3. Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
4. Jorge Polanco (S) 2B
5. Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
6. Josh Naylor (L) 1B
7. Mitch Garver (R) DH
8. Victor Robles (R) RF
9. J.P. Crawford (L) SS
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