The West has committed to support Ukraine’s battle against the Russian invasion, but what can Ukraine realistically expect to achieve with its forthcoming offensive?
Will the West continue to perpetuate an unwinnable war for Ukraine, or is the forthcoming battle simply a way to move the frontline in anticipation of some form of truce or ceasefire later this year?
From a Ukrainian offensive perspective, the three main areas of focus are the Donbas, Crimea, and the land bridge between the two regions. But what would be the Ukrainian priority given their limited resources, and where would they expect to reap the greatest progress?
The Donbas has been the focus of a brutal and grinding war of attrition since 2014, and given its location on the border of Russia, it would be a very costly and time-consuming challenge to liberate.
Even if Russian forces were expelled, many of the natives (particularly in the east near the border with Russia) are Russian sympathisers, which would create a fertile ground for a thorny and enduring insurgency.
Next, although Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory, the region was annexed by Russia in 1783 and was only passed to Ukraine – a “county” of the Soviet Union at the time – as an administrative action by President Khrushchev in 1954.
Crimea is a vital asset for Russia; as a result, most Western analysts believe its liberation would be extremely difficult to achieve.
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Which leaves the land bridge. If Ukrainian forces were able to punch through the frontline Russian defences, they would have a clear run to the coast, and leave Russian forces on the east of the Dnipro river very exposed.
But, even if such an operation was wildly successful, it would leave Ukrainian forces drained and with dangerously low levels of ammunition and weapons, and very vulnerable.
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Image: Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war
Putin has consistently claimed his invasion of Ukraine is a “special military operation” with limited objectives. With Crimea secure, the Donbas represents a vital “buffer zone” between Russia and the potential eastern flank of NATO and remains a high priority for Putin.
As for the land bridge, although important, it is not vital for Russia as it would be difficult to defend. Besides, it probably provides a welcome distraction for Ukrainian military offensive action while Putin focuses on his primary objectives.
So, the scene is set for a summer of offensive action, with both sides focused on different objectives. By the end of the summer, both sides will be exhausted, short of ammunition, and in dire need of a break – the conditions for negotiation.
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Belgorod bombing ’embarrassing’ for Russia
Having secured (most of) the Donbas, Russia could claim victory – at least to a domestic audience – having achieved the focus of his special military operation.
The bigger challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to accept ceding territory. This is where American diplomacy will prevail.
Despite fulsome public support, privately the international community will not want to risk perpetuating an unwinnable war.
Security guarantees will be a cornerstone of any ceasefire or peace accord, and it is already evident that NATO will do all it can to ease Ukrainian access to that alliance.
Furthermore, Ukraine will need to rebuild critical national infrastructure, and for that it will be heavily reliant on foreign investment, which could prove a very attractive palliative.
The war that Ukraine will struggle to win, and Russia will struggle to lose – rumbles on. Expect diplomatic pressure to increase to find a negotiated solution, despite the implications.
Donald Trump has called for every Afghan national who entered the US under the Biden administration to be investigated following the shooting of two National Guard troops near the White House.
The president said the “monstrous, ambush-style attack” was carried out by an Afghan national who arrived in September 2021 during America’s chaotic withdrawal from Kabul.
“This attack underscores the single greatest national security threat facing our nation,” Mr Trump said in an address to the nation from Florida.
He vowed to “reexamine every single alien” who has entered the US from Afghanistan under the previous government, and said: “I am determined to ensure the animal who perpetrated this atrocity will pay the steepest possible price.”
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Trump condemns ‘animal’ shooting suspect
Suspect to face terror probe
America’s citizenship and immigration office said it had stopped processing all immigration requests relating to Afghan nationals indefinitely.
Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, reports the suspect in custody is 29-year-old Rahmanullah Lakanwal.
Both guardsmen were shot in the head, according to NBC, citing senior officials briefed on the investigation.
Wednesday’s shooting – carried out with a handgun – will be investigated by the FBI as a possible act of terror.
The White House was placed into lockdown following the incident, while Mr Trump is away for Thanksgiving.
Image: Pics: AP
Victims in ‘critical condition’
West Virginia’s governor initially said both victims were members of his state’s National Guard and had died from their injuries – but later posted to say there were “conflicting reports about the condition of our two Guard members”.
Patrick Morrisey had said: “These brave West Virginians lost their lives in the service of their country.”
Hundreds of National Guard members have been patrolling the capital after Mr Trump issued an emergency order in August, which federalised the local police force and sent in the guard from eight states and the District of Columbia.
Mr Trump has announced an extra 500 troops will be deployed in the wake of Wednesday’s shooting.
FBI director Kash Patel said the troops were “brazenly attacked in a horrendous act of violence”.
At a news conference, he clarified they were in a “critical condition”.
Image: Pic: AP
Former president Joe Biden, who was heavily criticised by Mr Trump in his address, said he and his wife Jill were “heartbroken” by the shooting.
“Violence of any kind is unacceptable, and we must all stand united against it,” said a statement.
Analysis: Trump’s statement could embolden anti-immigration Americans
US correspondent Mark Stone said it was expected that Trump’s statement would have an update on the investigation and the victims’ condition.
“What struck me was the president’s decision to be so political and to make the point as he wanted to, it seemed, that this will now embolden him to find out who else might be here illegally, wherever they may be from,” Stone said.
“And he singled out Somalis in Minnesota, of course, a Democratic-run state.”
Stone said Trump’s statement could further embolden those who already hold anti-immigration sentiments.
“You might expect a leader in this sort of situation to deal with the facts as he knows them and to call for unity. But it’s not Trump’s style to do that.”
How the attack unfolded
Jeff Carroll, chief of the metropolitan police department in the area, said the attack began at 2.15pm local time (7.15pm in the UK) while National Guard members were on “high visibility patrols in the area”.
He said: “A suspect came around the corner, raised his arm with a firearm and discharged it at the National Guard.
“The National Guard members were… able to – after some back and forth – able to subdue the individual and bring them into custody.”
Washington DC mayor Muriel Bowser called the attack a “targeted shooting”.
Image: Pics: AP
Social media footage showed first responders attempting CPR on one of the soldiers as they treated the other on a pavement covered in glass.
Nearby other officers could be seen restraining an individual on the ground.
Image: Emergency personnel cordon off an area near where the National Guard soldiers were shot. Pics: AP
The scene was cordoned off by police tape, while agents from the US Secret Service and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives attended the scene, as National Guard troops stood sentry nearby.
The FBI was also on the scene, the agency’s director said.
The son of a British couple detained in Iran has said the UK government is not doing enough to secure their release.
Lindsay and Craig Foreman, from East Sussex, were taken into custody in Kerman in January during a motorcycle tour around the world and later charged with espionage, which they deny.
Lindsay’s son, Joe Bennett, told Sky News there are too many similarities with Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s situation.
“They themselves are being very passive,” he said of the UK government.
“They’ve got two UK citizens that are accused of spying for the British state, but they’re not coming out and defending them and calling [it out] for what it is.
“You need to stand up for your citizens and call it out.”
Speaking to The World With Dominic Waghorn, Mr Bennett dismissed Iran’s accusation of espionage against his mother and her partner – and accused the regime of “hostage taking”.
Image: Lindsay Foreman with her son Joe Bennett. Pic: Family handout
‘They’re not spies’
Asked whether he had any sympathy with the argument that making too much of the situation makes their release less likely, Mr Bennett said there was “no justification” for the Foreign Office taking such an approach.
“If they’re on charges of shoplifting, potentially that’s understandable, let’s see the court of law, let’s go through it if they’ve been caught of some wrongdoing,” he said.
“They haven’t, and they’ve been accused of espionage, which is state-level political charges, right?
Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s husband Richard is supporting Mr Bennett’s case.
He told Sky News: “It does feel to me that I’m hearing too many echoes of our experience in the experience of Joe’s family and others.”
Image: Joe Bennett and Richard Ratcliffe
The Foreign Office warns all British and British-Iranian nationals against all travel to Iran because of “significant risk of arrest, questioning, or detention”.
In October, a spokesperson told Sky News the department was deeply concerned by reports that the Foremans had been charged with espionage and that it was providing them with consular support.
Soldiers have appeared on state TV in Guinea-Bissau to say the country’s military has seized power, accusing its president of interfering in Sunday’s election as he revealed he had been “deposed”.
Military spokesperson Dinis N’Tchama said in a statement that the military had decided to “immediately depose the president of the republic” and suspend all government institutions.
He said they acted in response to the “discovery of an ongoing plan” that he said aimed to destabilise the country by attempting to “manipulate electoral results”.
Image: Guinea Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo at the UN in 2023. File pic: Reuters
The “scheme was set up by some national politicians with the participation of a well-known drug lord, and domestic and foreign nationals”, Mr N’Tchama said, but gave no details.
The country has emerged as a hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe.
The electoral process was being suspended immediately, along with the activities of the media, while the country’s borders were being closed, he said.
Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embaló told French television network France 24: “I have been deposed.”
French news outlet Jeune Afrique quoted Mr Embaló as saying he was arrested in what he called a coup led by the army chief of staff but did not suffer violence.
An international election observer told Associated Press the president “has been speaking to people saying he’s being held by the military”.
Gunfire was heard near the presidential palace in the capital, Bissau, around noon on Wednesday.
A palace official said a group of armed men tried to attack the building, leading to an exchange of gunfire with guards.
Gunshots were also heard around the nearby national electoral commission, an interior ministry official said.
Both sources spoke on condition of anonymity.
Roads leading to the palace were closed off, with checkpoints manned by heavily armed and masked soldiers, an AP reporter said.
Meanwhile, Mr Embaló and opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa both claimed victory on Tuesday in the presidential and legislative elections held on Sunday, even though official provisional results were not expected until Thursday.