Ukraine will struggle to win the war and Russia will struggle to lose, increasing pressure for a negotiated solution
The West has committed to support Ukraine’s battle against the Russian invasion, but what can Ukraine realistically expect to achieve with its forthcoming offensive?
Will the West continue to perpetuate an unwinnable war for Ukraine, or is the forthcoming battle simply a way to move the frontline in anticipation of some form of truce or ceasefire later this year?
From a Ukrainian offensive perspective, the three main areas of focus are the Donbas, Crimea, and the land bridge between the two regions. But what would be the Ukrainian priority given their limited resources, and where would they expect to reap the greatest progress?
The Donbas has been the focus of a brutal and grinding war of attrition since 2014, and given its location on the border of Russia, it would be a very costly and time-consuming challenge to liberate.
Even if Russian forces were expelled, many of the natives (particularly in the east near the border with Russia) are Russian sympathisers, which would create a fertile ground for a thorny and enduring insurgency.
Next, although Crimea is internationally recognised as Ukrainian territory, the region was annexed by Russia in 1783 and was only passed to Ukraine – a “county” of the Soviet Union at the time – as an administrative action by President Khrushchev in 1954.
Crimea is a vital asset for Russia; as a result, most Western analysts believe its liberation would be extremely difficult to achieve.
Which leaves the land bridge. If Ukrainian forces were able to punch through the frontline Russian defences, they would have a clear run to the coast, and leave Russian forces on the east of the Dnipro river very exposed.
But, even if such an operation was wildly successful, it would leave Ukrainian forces drained and with dangerously low levels of ammunition and weapons, and very vulnerable.
Map showing east of Ukraine including Crimea more than 400 days into the war
Putin has consistently claimed his invasion of Ukraine is a “special military operation” with limited objectives. With Crimea secure, the Donbas represents a vital “buffer zone” between Russia and the potential eastern flank of NATO and remains a high priority for Putin.
As for the land bridge, although important, it is not vital for Russia as it would be difficult to defend. Besides, it probably provides a welcome distraction for Ukrainian military offensive action while Putin focuses on his primary objectives.
So, the scene is set for a summer of offensive action, with both sides focused on different objectives. By the end of the summer, both sides will be exhausted, short of ammunition, and in dire need of a break – the conditions for negotiation.
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Belgorod bombing ’embarrassing’ for Russia
Having secured (most of) the Donbas, Russia could claim victory – at least to a domestic audience – having achieved the focus of his special military operation.
The bigger challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to accept ceding territory. This is where American diplomacy will prevail.
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Despite fulsome public support, privately the international community will not want to risk perpetuating an unwinnable war.
Security guarantees will be a cornerstone of any ceasefire or peace accord, and it is already evident that NATO will do all it can to ease Ukrainian access to that alliance.
Furthermore, Ukraine will need to rebuild critical national infrastructure, and for that it will be heavily reliant on foreign investment, which could prove a very attractive palliative.
The war that Ukraine will struggle to win, and Russia will struggle to lose – rumbles on. Expect diplomatic pressure to increase to find a negotiated solution, despite the implications.
World
Biden adding ‘fuel to fire’, Kremlin says – as Ukraine allowed to fire US missiles into Russia
The Kremlin has criticised President Joe Biden for adding “fuel to the fire” after giving Ukraine permission to launch US missiles into Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “It is obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to… continue adding fuel to the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions around this conflict.”
Russia‘s Foreign Ministry added that the action by Mr Biden‘s administration would fundamentally alter the nature of the war and trigger “an adequate and tangible” response.
The UK has refused to reveal if it plans to follow suit, for example extending the use of British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles by Ukraine to hit targets inside Russia.
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Britain’s Defence Secretary John Healey told the House of Commons commenting would “compromise operations and security”, adding that he will speak with the US and Ukrainian defence secretaries on Monday evening.
At the G20 Summit in Brazil, Sir Keir Starmer gave a similar response: “I’m not going to get into operational details because the only winner, if we were to do that, is [Vladimir] Putin, and I’m not prepared to do that.”
For over a year Ukraine has been calling on America changes its policy on the use of long-range missiles.
Joe Biden attends the G20 Summit. Pic: AP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has given a muted response to Mr Biden’s decision to expand the use of the American-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).
“Strikes are not made with words… the missiles will speak for themselves,” he said.
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‘The missiles will speak for themselves’
Biden risks triggering ‘World War Three’
The US has eased restrictions on the use of ATACMS, which has a range of up to 190 miles, after Russia began deploying North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces in the conflict.
Donald Trump Jr, the son of president-elect Donald Trump, suggested in a post on X that Mr Biden was risking a third world war “before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives”.
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The use of tactical missile systems for Ukraine
Hungary: Policy is ‘astonishingly dangerous’
There has been a strong, but mixed, reaction across Europe to America’s change of policy.
Hungary’s foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, said the decision was “astonishingly dangerous” – although the country’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has a close and often sympathetic relationship with Moscow.
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Why has US let Ukraine use its missiles?
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Slovakia’s leader Robert Fico, who has also fostered a stronger relationship with his Russian counterpart, said it was an “unprecedented escalation of tensions” and “a decision that thwarts hopes for the start of any peace talks”.
But other countries have been more positive.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said: “This decision was very necessary… Russia sees that Ukraine enjoys strong support and that the West’s position is unyielding and determined.”
Meanwhile, Estonia’s foreign minister Margus Tsahkna was equally positive. He said easing restrictions on Ukraine was “a good thing”, adding: “We have been saying that from the beginning – that no restrictions must be put on the military support [for Ukraine].”
Missiles are ‘not a game changer’
Former British ambassador to Russia Sir Toby Brenton has told Sky News: “Nobody is really expecting this to be a game changer.
“They’re expecting it to make life more difficult for the Russians, slow the Russian advance down, but… from all the stories I’m hearing, there are not actually that many of these missiles available to be used.”
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A Russian missile strike on Odesa killed 10 people on Monday. Pic: Ukrainian Emergency Services/Reuters
A residential building damaged by a Russian missile strike in Sumy. Pic: Reuters
On Monday, a Russian ballistic missile with cluster munitions killed 11 people in a residential area of Sumy in northern Ukraine.
Another missile barrage sparked apartment fires in the southern port of Odesa, killing at least 10 people, Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said.
Meanwhile, Tuesday marks 1,000 days since Russia began its full-scale invasion in 2022.
Barely anyone speaks – there is virtual silence apart from the sounds of passing vehicles and the wind whipping through flags and photographs commemorating the dead in a war that started 1,000 days ago when Russia invaded.
What is really striking is the sheer number of people who have died, and this memorial in Kyiv’s Maidan Square represents just some of those who gave their lives defending their country.
Soldiers in camouflage fatigues pause to pay their respects to comrades, civilians stop and stare, heads often bowed.
At the same time, on mobile phones, news alerts announce another missile strike on Ukraine. This time in the port city of Odessa.
More dead, more injured, it never stops here.
As this war grinds on, with Russia making significant gains in the east, it says something about the Ukrainian people’s resolve to keep going.
For months the Ukrainian government has been pleading with the United States and its western partners for permission to use long range weapons to attack deep inside Russia.
A ruined building in Odessa
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These weapons would allow Ukraine to target airfields and bases where drones and missiles are launched against Ukraine, and to attack supply routes and military camps. In effect – to take the fight to Russia.
Time and again civilians and soldiers alike tell me the West and the United States are scared of annoying or provoking Russia. Wrongly or rightly, most believe the West is happy for Ukraine to hold the line but not beat Russia.
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Ukraine allowed to use US long-range missiles in Russia
News that President Biden, in the twilight of his time in office, has changed his position allowing American missiles to be fired into Russia, has been greeted with euphoria.
Although it’s tempered by his decision to allow them to be used only in the Kursk region of Russia, where North Korean troops are augmenting the Russian military.
MP Lesia Vasylenko
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I met Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko in the capital, she heard the news as she arrived back in Ukraine from a trip abroad.
She says the decision has “lifted spirits here” and calls the move “extremely significant” but says it needs to go further.
“As members of parliament we have been echoing the president in every single meeting we have abroad, asking for the permission to strike inside Russia’s territory, what this means is permission to liquidate 16 airbases from which Russia on a daily and nightly bases sends airplanes carrying missiles that are hitting Ukrainian homes, Ukrainian infrastructure, and basically making civilian life impossible in the country,” she told me.
She continued: “Having permission to strike inside of all of Russia would really change things round for the people of Ukraine first and foremost, but also on the battlefield.”
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She told me that despite the war dragging on, the Ukrainian people remain resolute and united.
“The resilience is still there, for us this resilience equals survival, if Ukraine stops fighting there will be no Ukraine, there will be no us as Ukrainians, there will be no housing, we would not be allowed to live under the Ukrainian flag, so the only option here is to make sure that Russia stops fighting and that Russia can never fight again.”
Over the past almost two weeks I have driven from the west to the east of this huge country.
It strikes me that you can barely pass a town or a village cemetery without the blue and gold colours of the Ukrainian flag punctuating the grey skies – marking the graves of the war dead.
Flags mark the graves of Ukraine’s war dead across the country
A thousand days since the Russian invasion began, soldiers and civilians alike are still dying, but Ukraine is still fighting.
A thousand days ago, few thought that was likely.
An undersea fibre optic cable between Germany and Finland has stopped working and might have been deliberately cut by an unknown party, according to authorities.
The 729 mile (1,173km) C-Lion1 cable under the Baltic Sea from Helsinki to Rostock went offline just after 2am GMT on Monday.
The outage was reported by Finnish state-controlled cyber security and telecoms company Cinia.
A physical inspection has not yet been done but the abrupt nature suggests it was completely severed by an outside force, said chief executive Ari-Jussi Knaapila.
Germany and Finland‘s foreign ministers said they were “deeply concerned” and it “immediately raises suspicions of intentional damage”.
A joint statement said: “Our European security is not only under threat from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors.
“Safeguarding our shared critical infrastructure is vital to our security and the resilience of our societies.”
Cinia said “corrective measures” were under way and a repair ship was being prepared.
The damage to the fibre optic cable could take around five to 15 days to fix, Mr Knaapila told reporters.
The pipe runs under the Baltic Sea between Helsinki and Rostock
He said the damage occurred near the southern tip of Sweden’s Oland island and that Cinia was working with authorities to investigate.
The cable links central European telecoms networks to Finland, other Nordic countries and Asia.
A Chinese ship was blamed for damaging another cable, the Balticconnector gas pipeline, last year. Pic: Finnish Border Guard/Reuters
Another submerged gas line and several telecoms cables were seriously damaged last year in the Baltic Sea.
A Chinese container ship dragging its anchor was named as prime suspect by Finnish police. However, they have not said if they think the damage was intentional.
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Two years ago, a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany – the Nord Steam – was also damaged by explosions.
Many suspected Moscow of foul play but German authorities are still investigating the case.
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