Many months ago my colleague and I bet on whether or not he’d go for a second term.
My (flawed) logic – that he would not – was based simply on his age.
My assumption was that his wife, First Lady Jill Biden, would counsel him that he’d achieved enough in his first term and that it was time to take a back seat; let someone else complete his work.
After all, he would be 82 at the time of re-election and nearer 90 at the end of the second term.
I have already been accused of ageism for raising this point, but it’s legitimate to discuss the issue, surely?
The American people have already spoken. The latest polling, from our US partner network NBC this past weekend, suggests only one in four Americans believe Biden should run again.
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‘I believe Biden will be re-elected’
Biden has aged and he’s less fluent
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I’ve compared speeches he gave just a couple of years ago with those he’s given more recently.
He has aged. He is less fluent. This isn’t a jibe. It’s an observation and there is no suggestion of health issues. He passes the regular White House medicals.
But what about the unmatched intensity of the American election cycle? It’s tested candidates half his age. Is he really ready to do that all over again?
The President said before Christmas that he would consult with family before deciding if he would run again.
So my naive instinct was based on human nature: that his family would tell him: ‘Pop, dad, Joe, you’ve had a good run… support a good successor and stand aside’.
My colleague’s judgement – that he would run – was, of course, based much more on the cold logic of politics.
This is a man who has lived and breathed politics all his life – he has always wanted to be president.
In his mid-seventies he managed that top office. He’s done one term. He’s hardly likely to want to throw the towel in now.
Who wants to be a one-term president?
His age gives him unmatched political experience. His supporters argue that he has achieved a lot in one term. He’s secured impressive domestic legislative achievements. He’s led the free world against Russian aggression. There’s much more yet to do; there are policy pledges to fulfil.
He has been eyeing competition
“Finish the job…” will be the campaign slogan.
He’s obviously been eyeing the competition too. While it’s true that American politics is hard to predict, it looks likely that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate.
Biden beat Trump last time around. So, he and the Democrats naturally assume he can do it again.
Remember too that so much has emerged about (the now indicted) Donald Trump since the last election. Could Trump’s support base really have increased since 2020? Surely not, Team Biden is assuming.
What about other Democratic Party candidates? There must be some?!
Well – not really. The other two main contenders last time around – Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris – were strategically wrapped into Team Biden during this first term. Neither has shone either.
There are a few in the wings who see themselves as post-Biden candidates – like California’s Governor Gavin Newsom – but none prepared to stand in his way now – fearful maybe of being blamed for a Trump ’24 victory?
And so, Biden 2024 seems as good as certain.
The world will reflect on the fact that the best America can offer for 2024 is a likely re-run of the 2020 offering. And I’ve lost a bet.
At least 11 people have been stabbed at a Walmart supermarket in Michigan, with six in a critical condition.
Officials say a suspect is in custody – and at this stage, it is believed the attack was a “random act” that involved a folding-style knife near the checkout area.
Sheriff Michael Shea told reporters: “Eleven is 11 too many, but thank God it wasn’t more.”
Image: Pic: AP
The suspect, who is from Michigan, is not known to police – and was captured within three minutes thanks to “citizen involvement”.
The attack unfolded in Traverse City – and Tiffany DeFell, who was in the car park at the time, described scenes of chaos.
“It was really scary. Me and my sister were just freaking out,” she said. “This is something you see out of the movies.”
Beyond the six people in a critical condition, it is believed the remaining five were seriously hurt. All 11 are still being treated in hospital.
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Image: Pic: AP
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer said: “Our thoughts are with the victims and the community reeling from this brutal act of violence.”
A Walmart spokesperson added that the retailer is working closely with law enforcement.
“Violence like this is unacceptable. Our thoughts are with those who were injured and we’re thankful for the swift action of first responders,” a statement said.
Image: Pic: AP
At this stage, the ages of the victims is unclear – but it is not thought any of the victims were Walmart employees.
Traverse City is about 255 miles northwest of Detroit.
A US passenger plane made a dramatic plunge minutes after take-off to dodge another aircraft – injuring two cabin crew and causing passengers to shoot out of their seats.
The Southwest flight had just taken off from Burbank in California when the pilot received an alert about a nearby plane.
Data from FlightAware shows the aircraft dropped by 91m (300ft) in just 36 seconds. Those on board said they felt panicked, and some feared the plane was about to crash.
Comedian Jimmy Dore posted on X: “Pilot had to dive aggressively to avoid mid-air collision … myself and plenty of people flew out of their seats and bumped heads on ceiling, a flight attendant needed medical attention.”
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Stef Zambrano saw a woman who wasn’t wearing her seatbelt thrown out of her seat, who then said: “I want to get off this plane. I want to be on the ground.”
Another passenger, Steve Ulasewicz, told NBC Los Angeles that it felt like the plane was in freefall for 10 seconds.
“People were screaming. You know, it was pandemonium. People thought the plane was going down,” he added.
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The aircraft was able to continue to its destination of Las Vegas, where it safely landed without any further incident.
It is believed the Boeing 737 was in the same vicinity as a Hawker Hunter Mk. 58, a British fighter jet.
Southwest is now working with the Federal Aviation Administration “to further understand the circumstances” of the event.
Donald Trump likes a wall. And now he has his very own 10ft-high metal barrier creating a fortress as he tees off for a weekend of politics, play and precision in Scotland.
An almost surreal contrast now exists in the tiny Ayrshire village of Turnberry.
On one side, the stunning coastline and luxury hotel that bears the president’s name. And on the other, an armed buffer zone with sniper teams and road checkpoints.
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The threat level and associated security on display is unprecedented following the attempted assassination of Trump at a campaign rally in the US.
“It would be inappropriate for me to plan an operation and not bear in mind what has happened,” the senior officer in charge of this weekend’s policing efforts told me.
Image: Military trucks are part of a security effort that comes just a year after an attempted assassination
Image: A ‘counter terror’ firm was spotted near the area, which is ringed by a 10ft fence
Turnberry, and its population of about 200 people, have this week witnessed a never-ending stream of Army trucks, terrorist sweeps, road checkpoints, airspace restrictions, sniper positions being erected and Secret Service agents roaming around.
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It is the most extensive security deployment in Scotland since the death of the late Queen in 2022.
It is estimated around 5,000 officers will be on the streets, with teams coming from across the UK to assist.
The spectacle primarily centres on Donald Trump coming to play golf before the arrival of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for talks, likely on Monday.
The president, whose mother was born on the Scottish island of Lewis, is then scheduled to travel to his Aberdeenshire resort where a new golf course is set to open.
Image: Police on buggies are patrolling near the course on Scotland’s east coast
Image: Police have even taped off a clothes recycling bin near the course
‘Trump is a decent boss’
Stephanie Campbell and Leanne Maxwell live in Turnberry and used to work at the Trump-owned resort, like many other locals.
The pair told Sky News the very first lesson staff at the resort are given is not in fine service or guest etiquette, but in how to respond to a bomb threat.
It is claimed there are posters above the landline phones in the hotel with instructions on the worst-case scenario.
Image: Stephanie Campbell and Leanne Maxwell say staff are trained in dealing with bomb threats
Stephanie told Sky News: “I had no issues working for him, he is a really decent boss.
“The last time he came there was an element of excitement, I think this time there comes with an added element of concern.
“It brings a lot higher threats and security and it’s much more difficult for everybody in the area.”
Image: Mr Trump at Turnberry in 2018 – he will also visit his Aberdeen course on this trip. Pic: AP
Image: File pic: Reuters
Echoing her concerns, Leanne told Sky News: “Security is obviously being bumped up. It’s quite worrying. He’s quite a man, ain’t he?”
Sweeps of the rooms are carried out by US Secret Service agents after housekeeping staff complete their duties and Trump’s meals, they say, are prepared by a personal chef to avoid the risk of poisoning.
To the outside world, these measures seem standard for a US president. But to those who live in Turnberry, it’s far from normal when they have a date with the commander-in-chief.
Image: Marine One is in place awaiting the president’s arrival
Image: File pic: Reuters
Awkward encounters
Prestwick Airport has become something of an American airbase in recent days.
The infamous armoured limousine, known as “The Beast”, has been spotted being wheeled out of a US military plane as the presidential motorcade prepares for his arrival tonight.
Greeting the president at the doors of Air Force One will be the secretary of state for Scotland, Ian Murray, who previously supported a motion alleging Trump was guilty of “misogynism, racism and xenophobia”.
Another awkward encounter could come in the form of Scottish First Minister John Swinney’s showdown with Mr Trump next week.
The SNP leader, who publicly backed Kamala Harris in the presidential race, called for September’s state visit to be scrapped after the Ukrainian president’s visit to the White House descended into a shouting match live on TV earlier this year.
Demonstrations are planned throughout the weekend, with marches and protests announced in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen.
Kirsty Haigh, from Scotland Against Trump, claims the president uses Scotland to “cleanse his image” and he should not be able to use the country as an “escape” from his views.
She told Sky News: “He should not be welcomed by us, by our leaders.
“We want to see a Scotland that is very different than [the] America that’s being created.”