Many months ago my colleague and I bet on whether or not he’d go for a second term.
My (flawed) logic – that he would not – was based simply on his age.
My assumption was that his wife, First Lady Jill Biden, would counsel him that he’d achieved enough in his first term and that it was time to take a back seat; let someone else complete his work.
After all, he would be 82 at the time of re-election and nearer 90 at the end of the second term.
I have already been accused of ageism for raising this point, but it’s legitimate to discuss the issue, surely?
The American people have already spoken. The latest polling, from our US partner network NBC this past weekend, suggests only one in four Americans believe Biden should run again.
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2:54
‘I believe Biden will be re-elected’
Biden has aged and he’s less fluent
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I’ve compared speeches he gave just a couple of years ago with those he’s given more recently.
He has aged. He is less fluent. This isn’t a jibe. It’s an observation and there is no suggestion of health issues. He passes the regular White House medicals.
But what about the unmatched intensity of the American election cycle? It’s tested candidates half his age. Is he really ready to do that all over again?
The President said before Christmas that he would consult with family before deciding if he would run again.
So my naive instinct was based on human nature: that his family would tell him: ‘Pop, dad, Joe, you’ve had a good run… support a good successor and stand aside’.
My colleague’s judgement – that he would run – was, of course, based much more on the cold logic of politics.
This is a man who has lived and breathed politics all his life – he has always wanted to be president.
In his mid-seventies he managed that top office. He’s done one term. He’s hardly likely to want to throw the towel in now.
Who wants to be a one-term president?
His age gives him unmatched political experience. His supporters argue that he has achieved a lot in one term. He’s secured impressive domestic legislative achievements. He’s led the free world against Russian aggression. There’s much more yet to do; there are policy pledges to fulfil.
He has been eyeing competition
“Finish the job…” will be the campaign slogan.
He’s obviously been eyeing the competition too. While it’s true that American politics is hard to predict, it looks likely that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate.
Biden beat Trump last time around. So, he and the Democrats naturally assume he can do it again.
Remember too that so much has emerged about (the now indicted) Donald Trump since the last election. Could Trump’s support base really have increased since 2020? Surely not, Team Biden is assuming.
What about other Democratic Party candidates? There must be some?!
Well – not really. The other two main contenders last time around – Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris – were strategically wrapped into Team Biden during this first term. Neither has shone either.
There are a few in the wings who see themselves as post-Biden candidates – like California’s Governor Gavin Newsom – but none prepared to stand in his way now – fearful maybe of being blamed for a Trump ’24 victory?
And so, Biden 2024 seems as good as certain.
The world will reflect on the fact that the best America can offer for 2024 is a likely re-run of the 2020 offering. And I’ve lost a bet.
Driving south from Los Angeles along the coast, you can’t miss the San Pedro port complex. Dozens of red cranes pop up from behind the freeway.
The sound of industry whirs as containers are unloaded from hulking ocean liners on to waiting lorries and freight trains that seem to never end.
The port of Long Beach combines with the port of Los Angeles to make the busiest port in the western hemisphere.
Image: The San Pedro port complex
The colourful metal containers contain anything and everything, from clothes and car parts to fridges and furniture. Around $300bn of cargo passes through here every year and 60% of it is from China.
But at the moment, it’s far less busy than usual. Traffic is down by a third, compared with this time last year.
In the closest part of the mainland United States to China, this is Donald Trump‘s new tariffs policy in action, the direct result of frozen trade between the two countries.
“For the month of May, we expect that we’ll be down about 30% from where we were in May of 2024,” Noel Hacegaba, the port of Long Beach chief operating officer, tells Sky News.
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“What that translates into is fewer ships and fewer containers. It means fewer trucks will be needed to transport those containers from the port terminal to the warehouses. It means fewer jobs.”
Image: Noel Hacegaba, chief operating officer of the port of Long Beach
‘We’re barely surviving’
Helen Andrade knows all about that. She and her husband, Javier, are both lorry drivers. Helen only got her license in the last few years, so when work dries up, she is likely to be impacted first.
“I’m lying awake at night worrying about this,” she says.
“We’re barely surviving and we’re already seeing work slowing down. In my case, there are two incomes that are not going to come in. How are we going to survive?”
Helen adds: “I’m scared for the next two weeks, because over the next two weeks, I’m going to see where this is going, whether I have saved up enough money, which I know that I have not.”
Image: Lorry driver Helen Andrade
In Long Beach, one in five jobs is connected to the port. But what happens in the port doesn’t stay here.
The shipments reach every part of the country and already, a shortage of certain items imported from China and price hikes are taking hold.
A short drive away is downtown LA’s toy district, a multicultural area consisting of a dozen streets of pastel-coloured buildings, home to importers and wholesalers of toys, much of which is imported from China.
Image: Colourful balloons line windows in LA’s toy district
He was the boy from the small town with big dreams of becoming pope.
Robert Prevost, or “Bob” as they knew him in Dolton, south Chicago, was the youngest son of Louis, a teacher, and Mildred, a librarian.
Devoted in their faith, they were prominent figures in St Mary’s Church.
Scott Kuzminski remembers “Millie”, the chorister, with the “voice of an angel”, and her son with a calling on his life.
“Some children dream to be the top soccer player, or rich or something, and he dreamed he was going to be the Pope,” he said.
The railroad runs through this sleepy suburb, now destined to become a place of pilgrimage.
That’s an answer to prayer for Kathleen Steenson, who believed from childhood that her church would give the world a pope.
She said: “Our faith in this little parish is so strong… and in my little mind, I thought, the next pope has got to come from here because we’re such a great little community.”
Image: ‘The next pope has got to come from here,’ Kathleen Steenson said
St Mary’s Church, where the Pope served as an altar boy before entering the priesthood, is derelict now, symbolic of the challenges.
But to many, this is holy ground, illuminated by the colours cast by the sun shining through the stained glass.
And at the Cathedral of the High Name in the heart of Chicago, there’s a renewed sense of optimism.
“It’s a miracle and a great blessing,” a man leaving a celebratory mass for the new pontiff told me.
A woman, who had also been in the congregation, added: “I hope that he can help people to see beyond the divisions of the country and remember the poor.”
“It’s not just the virtues that he extols,” said another man, “I’m hoping he’ll bring inspiration to all of us to preach love and that the people in Washington will listen.”
Earlier this year, Cardinal Prevost, as he was then, questioned President Trump’s stance on immigration and vice president JD Vance’s interpretation of Christianity.
Leo XIV is the first Pope from North America, but spent years as a missionary in Peru, South America.
And it’s his pastoral heart that’s giving cause for hope in a deeply divided America.
A lawyer representing Sean “Diddy” Combs has told a court there was “mutual” domestic violence between him and his ex-girlfriend Casandra ‘Cassie’ Ventura.
Marc Agnifilo made the claim as he outlined some of the music star’s defence case ahead of the full opening of his trial next week.
Combs has pleaded not guilty to one count of racketeering conspiracy, two counts of sex trafficking and two counts of transportation for prostitution. If convicted, he faces up to life in prison.
Ms Ventura is expected to testify as a star witness for the prosecution during the trial in New York. The final stage of jury selection is due to be held on Monday morning.
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2:51
Why is Sean Combs on trial?
Mr Agnifilo told the court on Friday that the defence would “take the position that there was mutual violence” during the pair’s relationship and called on the judge to allow evidence related to this.
The lawyer said Combs‘s legal team intended to argue that “there was hitting on both sides, behaviour on both sides” that constituted violence.
He added: “It is relevant in terms of the coercive aspects, we are admitting domestic violence.”
Image: A court sketch showing Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs (right) as he listens to his lawyer Marc Agnifilo addressing the court. Pic: Reuters
Ms Ventura’s lawyers declined to comment on the allegations.
US District Judge Arun Subramanian said he would rule on whether to allow the evidence on Monday.
Combs, 55, was present in the court on Friday.
He has been held in custody in Brooklyn since his arrest last September.
Prosecutors allege that Combs used his business empire for two decades to lure women with promises of romantic relationships or financial support, then violently coerced them to take part in days-long, drug-fuelled sexual performances known as “Freak Offs”.
Combs’s lawyers say prosecutors are improperly seeking to criminalise his “swinger lifestyle”. They have suggested they will attack the credibility of alleged victims in the case by claiming their allegations are financially motivated.