Many months ago my colleague and I bet on whether or not he’d go for a second term.
My (flawed) logic – that he would not – was based simply on his age.
My assumption was that his wife, First Lady Jill Biden, would counsel him that he’d achieved enough in his first term and that it was time to take a back seat; let someone else complete his work.
After all, he would be 82 at the time of re-election and nearer 90 at the end of the second term.
I have already been accused of ageism for raising this point, but it’s legitimate to discuss the issue, surely?
The American people have already spoken. The latest polling, from our US partner network NBC this past weekend, suggests only one in four Americans believe Biden should run again.
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2:54
‘I believe Biden will be re-elected’
Biden has aged and he’s less fluent
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I’ve compared speeches he gave just a couple of years ago with those he’s given more recently.
He has aged. He is less fluent. This isn’t a jibe. It’s an observation and there is no suggestion of health issues. He passes the regular White House medicals.
But what about the unmatched intensity of the American election cycle? It’s tested candidates half his age. Is he really ready to do that all over again?
The President said before Christmas that he would consult with family before deciding if he would run again.
So my naive instinct was based on human nature: that his family would tell him: ‘Pop, dad, Joe, you’ve had a good run… support a good successor and stand aside’.
My colleague’s judgement – that he would run – was, of course, based much more on the cold logic of politics.
This is a man who has lived and breathed politics all his life – he has always wanted to be president.
In his mid-seventies he managed that top office. He’s done one term. He’s hardly likely to want to throw the towel in now.
Who wants to be a one-term president?
His age gives him unmatched political experience. His supporters argue that he has achieved a lot in one term. He’s secured impressive domestic legislative achievements. He’s led the free world against Russian aggression. There’s much more yet to do; there are policy pledges to fulfil.
He has been eyeing competition
“Finish the job…” will be the campaign slogan.
He’s obviously been eyeing the competition too. While it’s true that American politics is hard to predict, it looks likely that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate.
Biden beat Trump last time around. So, he and the Democrats naturally assume he can do it again.
Remember too that so much has emerged about (the now indicted) Donald Trump since the last election. Could Trump’s support base really have increased since 2020? Surely not, Team Biden is assuming.
What about other Democratic Party candidates? There must be some?!
Well – not really. The other two main contenders last time around – Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris – were strategically wrapped into Team Biden during this first term. Neither has shone either.
There are a few in the wings who see themselves as post-Biden candidates – like California’s Governor Gavin Newsom – but none prepared to stand in his way now – fearful maybe of being blamed for a Trump ’24 victory?
And so, Biden 2024 seems as good as certain.
The world will reflect on the fact that the best America can offer for 2024 is a likely re-run of the 2020 offering. And I’ve lost a bet.
Mr Trump, speaking to French President Emmanuel Macron at the United Nations in New York, said his relationship with Vladimir Putin had turned out to be meaningless.
Image: Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations. Pic: Reuters
Writing on Truth Social, the US president said: “I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.
“With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option.”
Mr Trump wrote that he had gained a greater understanding of the “economic trouble” the war was causing Moscow.
He said Russia had been “fighting aimlessly” for three-and-a-half years and had it been a “real military power” it would have defeated Ukraine in less than a week.
Mr Trump added: “This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like ‘a paper tiger’.”
Mr Trump’s tone contrasted greatly with his red-carpet treatment for the Russian president at a summit in Alaska last month, part of a push to expedite an end to the war in Ukraine.
The US president has previously suggested Ukraine would never be able to reclaim all the territory Russia has occupied since seizing the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
Mr Zelenskyy later said he was surprised by Mr Trump’s comments, telling Fox News’ Special Report he has a better relationship with the US president than before.
He said the comments were a very positive signal Mr Trump and the US will be with Ukraine until the end of the war.
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Rigby to Trump: Was Putin’s Alaska invite a mistake?
Earlier on Tuesday, while talking to Mr Zelenskyy at the United Nations, Mr Trump was asked by reporters whether he thought NATO should shoot down Russian planes if they entered NATO airspace.
“Yes, I do,” Mr Trump replied.
Asked whether the US would support NATO in shooting down Russian aircraft, Mr Trump said it depended on the circumstances.
On Truth Social, he said the US would continue to supply weapons to NATO and it was for the military alliance to “do what they want with them”.
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Trump attacks UN and London mayor
Ukraine, he said, with the “support of the European Union”, is in a position to “fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form”.
Kyiv would need the “financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO”, he said.
But, given those caveats, he said the “original borders from where this war started is very much an option”.
In a joint statement following the president’s comments, G7 foreign ministers said discussions were ongoing about additional economic sanctions on Russia.
Mr Trump also suggested the Russian people are not aware of “what is really going on with this war”.
He added: “Most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine. Putin and Russia are in big economic trouble and this is the time for Ukraine to act.”
Ukraine has lost large areas of land in the east of the country. In the Donetsk region, Russia now controls about 70% of the territory. Kyiv’s forces have been pushed back to a string of four cities analysts have dubbed the “fortress belt”.
Moscow has partly annexed three other regions, too: Luhansk in the east, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson further west.
Image: The situation in Ukraine on 19 September
Meanwhile, Russia appears to be provoking its neighbours to the west. Last week, Estonia said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated its airspace for 12 minutes before Italian NATO jets escorted them away.
The week before, about 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO jets to shoot some of them down.
A 59-year-old man has been found guilty of trying to assassinate Donald Trump on a golf course.
Ryan Routh attempted to stab himself in the neck with a pen shortly after he was convicted on all five charges against him.
Marshals quickly surrounded Routh and he did not hurt himself. They then dragged him out of the courtroom in Fort Pierce, Florida.
Image: Courtroom sketch shows Ryan Routh trying to stab himself in the neck with a pen. Pic: AP
His daughter Sara Routh screamed: “Dad I love you don’t do anything. I’ll get you out. He didn’t hurt anybody.”
She continued screaming in the courtroom as her father was removed, and she said the case against him was rigged.
He was later brought back into court, wearing a white shirt and no tie. There was no blood visible on his neck.
The judge wanted to make sure Routh understood he was found guilty. Routh will be sentenced on 18 December, the judge announced.
His son Adam said “we love you Dad” and Routh turned around and winked as he was taken away.
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Moment Ryan Routh is arrested
‘Carefully crafted plot’
A jury of five men and seven women decided Routh intended to kill Mr Trump when he pointed a rifle through a fence as the then US presidential candidate was playing golf in West Palm Beach, Florida, in September last year.
Routh fled without firing a shot after a Secret Service agent patrolling the course ahead of Mr Trump saw Routh and the rifle and opened fire, according to witness testimony in the case.
At the start of the trial, prosecutor John Shipley said “this plot was carefully crafted and deadly serious”, adding that without the agent intervening, “Donald Trump would not be alive”.
Image: A photograph of what officials said was the SKS rifle in the assassination plot. Pic: Reuters
Image: Routh was arrested on 15 September 2024. Pic: Martin County Sheriff’s Office
The charges against Routh
Routh had been charged with attempting to assassinate a major presidential candidate, possessing a firearm in furtherance of a crime of violence, assaulting a federal officer, possessing a firearm and ammunition as a convicted felon and possessing a firearm with an obliterated serial number.
The incident occurred weeks after a bullet grazed the president’s ear in another assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Routh, who faces the prospect of life in prison, pleaded not guilty to all the charges against him and chose to defend himself in court.
He spent weeks plotting to kill Mr Trump before aiming a rifle through shrubbery as the Republican candidate played golf on 15 September 2024, at his West Palm Beach country club, according to prosecutors.
What did Routh say?
Routh told jurors in his closing argument that he did not intend to kill anyone that day.
“It’s hard for me to believe that a crime occurred if the trigger was never pulled,” Routh said.
He said he could see Mr Trump as he was on the path toward the sixth-hole green and noted he also could have shot a Secret Service agent who confronted him if he had intended to harm anyone.
Trump’s reaction
Following the guilty verdict, the president said on Truth Social that Routh was “an evil man with an evil intention, and they caught him”.
He thanked the Secret Service and “the wonderful person who spotted him running from the site of the crime”, and provided authorities with his vehicle registration number.
The guilty verdict “illustrates the Department of Justice’s commitment to punishing those who engage in political violence”, Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a post on X.
“This attempted assassination was not only an attack on our president, but an affront to our very nation,” Ms Bondi said.
President Trump’s speech to the UN General Assembly featured a number of dubious, hyperbolic and headline-grabbing statements.
Here are some of the main soundbites from his 56-minute moment in front of world leaders in New York.
‘London wants Sharia law’
The president continued his long-running criticism of London’s mayor, Sir Sadiq Khan, telling delegates: “I look at London, where you have a terrible mayor, terrible, terrible mayor, and it’s been changed, it’s been so changed.
“Now they want to go to Sharia law. But you are in a different country, you can’t do that.”
It’s not clear why he raised Sharia law – which is Islam’s legal system – but there is no evidence of it being administered by civil authorities in London.
A spokesperson for Sir Sadiq said: “We are not going to dignify his appalling and bigoted comments with a response.
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“London is the greatest city in the world, safer than major US cities, and we’re delighted to welcome the record number of US citizens moving here.”
Immigration will be ‘death of Western Europe’
The president, who’s clamped down on migrants coming via America’s southern border and ordered immigration raids, warned the UN “immigration and their suicidal energy ideas will be the death of Western Europe if something is not done immediately”.
He said Europe was being “invaded by a force of illegal aliens like nobody’s ever seen before”.
Image: Illegal migration has been a contentious subject in the UK for years. Pic: Reuters
“Illegal aliens are pouring into Europe and nobody’s doing anything to change it,” Mr Trump said.
Directly addressing European leaders, he added: “You’re doing it because you want to be nice. You want to be politically correct, and you’re destroying your heritage.”
Mr Trump urged Europe to abandon green energy plans and called climate change “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world” with predictions “made by stupid people that have cost their countries fortunes”.
He said scientists had previously predicted some nations might be “wiped off the map” by now – but that’s “not happening”.
“If you don’t get away from the green scam, your country is going to fail,” he argued.
The vast majority of scientists accept climate change is largely man-made and already having an effect; for example by causing glaciers to shrink, sea levels to rise, and making wildfires more likely.
Image: The president said renewable energy was blighting Britain’s countryside. Pic: iStock
He also reiterated his belief that Britain should make more of untapped North Sea oil, but claimed it was “so highly taxed that no developer, no oil company can go there”.
The president is well known for his loathing of renewable energy and used his speech to also take a swipe at the UK’s green energy efforts.
“I want to stop seeing them ruining that beautiful Scottish and English countryside with windmills and massive solar panels that go seven miles by seven miles, taking away farmland,” the president said.
The UK’s largest solar plant is Cleve Hill in Kent, which stretches about 1.8 miles x 1 mile at its widest.
However, the country’s largest onshore wind farm at Whitelee, near Glasgow, comprises 215 turbines over about 30 square miles.
‘Everyone’ says Trump should get prize after ‘ending seven wars’
Mr Trump is widely believed to be very keen to get the Nobel Peace Prize, and today he again claimed to have stopped “seven wars” – despite US efforts to get a ceasefire in Ukraine and Gaza so far failing.
“I ended seven wars and in all cases they were raging with countless thousands of people being killed,” he said, adding that “no president or prime minister” has “ever done anything close to that”.
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Analysis of Trump’s speech
However, the president said he actually isn’t concerned about being honoured for his efforts.
“Everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize for each one of these achievements,” he told world leaders.
“The real prize will be the sons and daughters who live to grow up with their mothers and fathers because millions of people are no longer being killed in endless and unglorious wars,” the president said.
“What I care about is not winning prizes as much as saving lives.”
He also took a swipe at what he said was a lax approach from the UN, saying it was “too bad that I had to do these things instead of the United Nations doing them”.