The Bank of England’s chief economist has urged people to accept they are poorer, warning inflation risks remaining stubbornly high.
Huw Pill told a podcast that people and businesses have responded to higher bills and costs by asking for higher wages or charging their customers more money.
His remarks echoed warnings from Bank governor Andrew Bailey that large wage and further cost increases damage the Bank’s efforts to cool inflation.
The headline measure, the consumer prices index (CPI), remains above 10% despite consecutive interest rate increases since December 2021 to help cool demand, and therefore the pace of price growth in the economy.
While much of the inflation can be attributed to factors outside the Bank’s control, such as energy and food costs, it is worried about the ability of secondary effects, such as wage increases, making its job more difficult.
Its argument has consistently been dismissed by unions seeking pay deals to help cushion their members from the cost of living crisis.
Inflation is due to ease naturally, and sharply in the coming months, when the effects of the first big energy bill hikes are stripped out of the inflation data.
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But the latest official figures showed higher wage increases than expected by economists, causing financial markets to price in that the Bank of England would respond with a further interest rate rise next month.
Mr Pill told the Columbia Law School’s Beyond Unprecedented podcast: “The UK, which is a big net importer of natural gas, is facing a situation where the price of what you’re buying from the rest of the world has gone up a lot, relative to the price of what you’re selling to the rest of the world, which is mainly services in the case of the UK.
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“You don’t need to be much of an economist to realise that if what you’re buying has gone up a lot relative to what you’re selling, you’re going to be worse off.
“So, somehow in the UK, someone needs to accept that they’re worse off and stop trying to maintain their real spending power by bidding up prices whether through higher wages or passing energy costs on to customers etc.
“What we’re facing now is that reluctance to accept that, yes, we’re all worse off and we all have to take our share; to try and pass that cost onto one of our compatriots and saying, ‘we’ll be alright, but they will have to take our share too’.
“That pass-the-parcel game that’s going on here, that game is one that’s generating inflation, and that part of inflation can persist.”
The prison service is starting to recategorise the security risk of offenders to ease capacity pressures, Sky News understands.
It involves lowering or reconsidering the threshold of certain offenders to move them from the closed prison estate (category A to C) to the open estate (category D) because there are more free cell spaces there.
Examples of this could include discounting adjudications – formal hearings when a prisoner is accused of breaking the rules – for certain offenders, so they don’t act as official reasons not to transport them to a lower-security jail.
Prisoners are also categorised according to an Incentives and Earned Privileges (IEP) status. There are different levels – basic, standard and enhanced – based on how they keep to the rules or display a commitment to rehabilitation.
Usually ‘enhanced’ prisoners take part in meaningful activity – employment and training – making them eligible among other factors, to be transferred to the open estate.
Insiders suggest this system in England and Wales is being rejigged so that greater numbers of ‘standard’ prisoners can transfer, whereas before it would more typically be those with ‘enhanced’ status.
Open prisons have minimal security and allow eligible prisoners to spend time on day release away from the prison on license conditions to carry out work or education.
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The aim is to help reintegrate them back into society once they leave. As offenders near the end of their sentence, they are housed in open prisons.
Many of those released as part of the early release scheme in October after serving 40% of their sentence were freed from open prisons.
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Overcrowding in UK prisons
They were the second tranche of offenders freed as part of this scheme, and had been sentenced to five years or more.
Despite early release measures, prisons are still battling a chronic overcrowding crisis. The male estate is almost full, operating at around 97% capacity.
Sky News understands there continue to be particular pinch points across the country.
Southwest England struggled over the weekend with three space-related ‘lockouts’ – which means prisoners are held in police suites or transferred to other jails because there is no space.
One inmate is believed to have been transported from Exeter to Cardiff.
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “The new government inherited a prison system on the point of collapse. We took the necessary action to stop our prisons from overflowing and to protect the public.
“This is not a new scheme. Only less-serious offenders who meet a strict criteria are eligible, and the Prison Service can exclude anyone who can’t be managed safely in a category D prison.”
A prisoner who has served 12 years in jail for stealing a mobile phone was unable to attend a psychiatric assessment because of a lack of staff, his family claims.
According to psychiatrists, Thomas White has developed psychosis as a direct result of being handed a controversial indefinite jail term called imprisonment for public protection (IPP), which was abolished in 2012.
Ms White said her brother, who experiences religious hallucinations, was placed in segregation and needed three prison staff to release him from his cell – but they were not available due to staff shortages.
Sky News understands that Lord Blunkett, the former Labour home secretary who introduced the IPP sentence but now campaigns for reform, has asked prisons minister Lord Timpson to investigate.
What are IPP sentences?
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Thomas White, now aged 40, was one of more than 8,000 offenders who were given an IPP sentence – a type of open-ended prison sentence the courts could impose from 2005 until they were scrapped.
The sentence – which has been described as a form of “psychological torture” by human rights experts – was intended for serious violent and sexual offenders who posed a significant risk of serious harm to the public but whose crimes did not warrant a life term.
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Although the government’s stated aim was public protection, concerns quickly grew that IPP sentences were being applied too broadly and catching more minor offenders, partly due to the fact that previous convictions were taken into account when determining whether someone posed a “significant risk”.
Thomas was sentenced to two years for stealing the mobile phone in a non-violent exchange back in 2012 – but because he had 16 previous convictions for theft and robberies, he was given an IPP sentence and has served 12 years.
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What is an IPP sentence?
The coalition government scrapped the sentence in 2012, but the change was not applied retrospectively, meaning 2,852 prisoners remain behind bars – including 1,227 who have never been released.
The new government is under increasing pressure to act on the IPP crisis given they were introduced by Lord Blunkett – who has since said he feels “deep regret” about the way the sentence was used.
‘My brother is being seriously failed’
In an email to Lord Blunkett, seen by Sky News, Ms White said: “My brother had a psychiatric appointment on the 1 November to see if he could be admitted to an outside hospital as he has to have two signatures to be transferred to an outside hospital.
“The system is nothing but criminal – people like my brother are being seriously failed.
“We waited a long time to have Thomas assessed again by the psychiatrist. We more than likely won’t get the assessment again.”
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Inside the lives of IPP prisoners
James Frith, the Labour MP for Bury North, said: “Thomas’ case highlights why these sentences were abolished over a decade ago.
“Thomas’s indefinite imprisonment has had a hugely detrimental impact on his mental and physical wellbeing. Thomas should be a patient, not a prisoner.
“We know the prison system is underfunded and overcapacity, but this is no excuse for failing Thomas. I have been working with Clara, Thomas’ sister, and I have written to the Lord Chancellor to raise Thomas’s case and the wider issues of IPPs.
“Thomas has been denied appropriate assessment and care for too long, we will not give up this fight for what is right.”
The Ministry of Justice does not comment on individual medical cases.
It is understood Lord Timpson will respond to Lord Blunkett in due course.
An extra £500m of additional funding will be given to neighbourhood policing, the home secretary is set to announce.
Yvette Cooper will also lay out plans for a new unit to improve the performances of police forces across the country to end the “postcode lottery” of how effectively crimes are dealt with.
The Home Office says the unit will directly monitor police performance in areas prioritised by the government, including tackling violence against women and girls and knife crime.
The home secretary will make the announcements in her first major speech at the annual conference of the National Police Chiefs’ Council and Association of Police and Crime Commissioners on Tuesday.
Ms Cooper is expected to say: “Public confidence is the bedrock of our British policing model but in recent years it has been badly eroded, as neighbourhood policing has been cut back and as outdated systems and structures have left the police struggling to keep up with a fast-changing criminal landscape.
“That’s why we’re determined to rebuild neighbourhood policing, to improve performance across police forces and to ensure the highest standards are being upheld across the service.
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“The challenge of rebuilding public confidence is a shared one for government and policing.
“This is an opportunity for a fundamental reset in that relationship, and together we will embark on this roadmap for reform to regain the trust and support of the people we all serve and to reinvigorate the best of policing.”
As well as the new government performance unit, ministers also hope to improve the relationship between the public and the police by standardising and measuring police response times – something that is not currently monitored.
In the aftermath of the summer riots, sparked by the Southport stabbings on 29 July, Ms Cooper said respect for the police needed to be restored after the “brazen abuse and contempt” shown by the perpetrators.
She said too often people feel “crime has no consequences” and that “has to change” as she promised to restore confidence in policing and the criminal justice system.
Dr Rick Muir, director of policing thinktank the Police Foundation, said: “A serious reform programme like this in policing is long overdue.
“Too often in the past, officers at the frontline have been let down by outdated technology, inadequate training and inefficient support services.
“Until these issues are addressed, the public won’t get the quality of policing they deserve.”