Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A surprise decision by several OPEC+ producers to voluntarily cut output earlier this month had pushed analyst oil price forecasts near $100 per barrel, but stagnating prices now point to a deepening divide between macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals.
Oil prices have once again lulled near the $80 per barrel threshold, nearly revisiting territory walked in early April, before members of the OPEC+ coalition announced a unilateral cut totaling 1.6 million barrels per day until the end of the year.
The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its Brent forecast up by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
Analysts now flag that broader financial turmoil has so far obstructed this bullish outlook, as supply-demand factors are outweighed by recessionary concerns.
“Oil markets have completely faded the boost from the surprise OPEC+ cut earlier this month, and we think this primarily reflects deep pessimism about the macro outlook, with little evidence of incremental weakness in demand so far,” Barclays analysts said in a Wednesday note.
“Weaker refining margins and freight demand have been in focus recently, but we believe markets might be reading too much into the implications of these trends for the demand outlook. We also think that markets might be underestimating OPEC+’s resolve to keep the inventory situation in check.”
“People really bet on a China reopening,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.
Beijing, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic “zero-Covid” restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. China has been progressively lifting its pandemic measures since the end of last year, and local crude oil demand is returning — but at a more “muted” pace, Croft noted.
“And the issue of the Fed is real. I think that is something that a lot of us got wrong in terms of the impact of, you know, the rate hikes, recession concerns,” she added.
“We have these OPEC cuts in place, we do have, you know, again, strong demand in India, China is reopening — this should be set up for a bullish story. People are still optimistic about the back half of the year, but the question is, can you get through the big macro wall of worry?”
Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC by e-mail that oil prices have suffered from a “constant barrage of gloomy macroeconomic news that creates a negative sentiment background,” as well as market distrust in the implementation of the OPEC+ production cuts. Market participants often wait for a visible reflection — such as lower export rates — to factor in production cuts, which can create a disconnect when vessel loadings arise from stock inventories.
But Katona projected price-supportive tightness in the physical markets over the summer season:
“We still see July and August as being the tightest months of 2023, with demand surpassing supply by some 2 million b/d (barrels per day), so the overall direction is still the same,” he said, noting that, globally, consumers will be exiting their annual refinery maintenance periods that curb their intake by that time.
“Net length in crude futures contracts has fully recovered from the banking panic seen in March and net length in WTI is the highest since November 2022, so the belief that prices are to increase is definitely widely shared by the market.”
But China’s long-anticipated reopening may prove too little, too late. One trade source — who could only comment on condition of anonymity because of contractual obligations — said the market is waiting for concrete signs of physical inventory draws. Another pointed to generally poor refining margins in Asia and a “poor demand cycle.” Another said that China’s reopening has been fully factored into the current pricing, and Beijing’s needs are simply being met by Russian oil. Moscow has rerouted 20% of the oil it supplied to Europe to other markets such as Asia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday, in comments reported by Reuters.
Kpler data indicates that China’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. Croft says that Chinese buyers have been “beneficiaries of sanctions policies,” as Moscow’s slashed prices also pushed other sanctioned sellers, such as Venezuela and Iran, to discount their crude.
OPEC+ weight
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
OPEC+ sources told CNBC at the time that these sentiment-driven fears would likely be temporary and pushed aside by supply-demand realities. The group convenes to discuss policy at a ministerial level for one of two annual meetings in June — when Croft flags that Gulf producers will likely set the agenda.
“When you think about Russia, Russia makes involuntary cuts. They basically rebrand the sanctions problem as a production cut. It’s really a question, I think, right now, about Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers, what they want to do. Again, Russia’s happy to have anything that raises prices, but they’re not in the driver’s seat.”
The weight of OPEC+ co-chair Russia within the group has been stifled by Western sanctions against its crude oil and oil product imports, in place since December and February, respectively.
As markets settle near $80 per barrel, Croft questioned what recourses still remain in the OPEC+ arsenal. “The question is right now, do they have more bullets to play, as we go into a June meeting?”
The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
“Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies,” it said.
Biden’s bid
Historically a defender of curbing prices at the pump, the U.S. has repeatedly called on OPEC+ producers to lift supplies, waging a war of words with group Chair Saudi Arabia when the coalition instead opted for a 2 million barrels per day cut in October. The U.S.’ own shale production, “traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs,” the IEA warns.
Throughout Biden’s presidency, U.S. energy policy has been defined by a push toward climate awareness. Shortly after taking office, the head of state suspended new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and kicked off a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Biden has openly criticized the oil sector for raking in profit at the expense of consumers, in June last year claiming ExxonMobil “made more money than God.”
But crude oil supply shortages and soaring gasoline prices have pushed Biden — who on Tuesday announced his re-election campaign — to reconsider his tactic, Croft holds.
“You have President Biden coming into office, essentially saying, Keep the oil in the ground. And now when he is faced with higher retail gasoline prices, essentially they say to oil companies, no, put the money in the ground. So we have seen a significant pivot on oil policy from the Biden administration,” she said Wednesday.
“That said, the fully robust defense of the American oil and gas is usually on the Republican end of the House.”
Move over, e-bikes – there’s a new way to get a power boost for cruising around town, and this one straps right to your legs. The Hypershell X Ultra is a high-tech wearable exoskeleton that delivers up to 1,000 watts of electric assist to your stride, giving “powered walking” the same kind of jolt that e-bikes gave to cycling.
The company behind it, Shanghai-based Hypershell, says the X Ultra is its most advanced performance exoskeleton yet, designed for hikers, runners, climbers, and even skiers who want to go farther and faster without wearing out their legs.
The new model uses a 1,000W “M-One Ultra” motor, around 25% more powerful than before, along with upgraded thermal management and improved energy efficiency. To put that in perspective, the US limits street-legal e-bikes to 750 watts of power, while the EU caps them at just 250 watts. That means this wearable device technically delivers more power to your legs than most legal e-bikes deliver to their wheels.
According to Hypershell, the X Ultra can reduce muscle load on the hips by up to 63%, lower heart rate by as much as 42% while cycling, and even cut oxygen consumption by nearly 40%. The system intelligently adapts to your movement using AI-powered gait mapping and offers 12 activity modes, including new ones for running, snow, and sand, that automatically adjust power delivery depending on terrain and intensity.
Despite all the electronics, it’s surprisingly lightweight. The X Ultra uses titanium alloy and carbon fiber construction to keep the system at just 1.8 kg (4 lb), plus a 410 g (0.9 lb) battery pack. That 72Wh battery claims to deliver up to 65 km (40 miles) of assist when cycling or 30 km (18 miles) when walking, and the system can even regenerate energy on downhills for up to 10% extra range.
With a top speed of 25 km/h (15.5 mph), the $1,999 X Ultra is pricey, but could early adopters help it still kick off a new category of electric mobility where people are the vehicle? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments section below.
via: Newatlas
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Picture taken on September 4, 2023 shows windmills at the Nysted Offshore Wind Farm constructed by Danish windpower giant Orsted in 2002-2003 in the Baltic Sea near Gedser in Denmark.
Thomas Traasdahl | Afp | Getty Images
Beleaguered wind farm operator Orsted announced Thursday that it intends to reduce its workforce by a quarter toward the end of 2027, in a bid to become more competitive and refocus its efforts on Europe.
Shares were 0.7% higher in European trade on Thursday. The stock came under pressure earlier this year amid concerted efforts from the White House to reduce renewable energy generation in the United States.
Orsted share price
On his first day in office, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order suspending new or renewed onshore and offshore wind leases. He also told reporters earlier this year that during his presidency, America was “not going to do the wind thing.”
Over the summer, the Trump administration ordered Orsted to halt construction on its Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island — which was 80% complete and set to power more than 350,000 homes. A U.S. court overturned that order last month.
In September, Orsted cut its full-year guidance, citing lower-than-normal offshore wind speeds across its offshore portfolio.
“Today, we’ve told our employees that from now and until the end of 2027, we’ll be saying goodbye to many skilled and valued colleagues who’ve contributed greatly to Ørsted,” Rasmus Errboe, the company’s CEO, said in a statement on Thursday.
Orsted currently employs around 8,000 people worldwide, and said it would reduce its headcount by 500 before the end of this year, culminating in a total of 2,000 reductions. The firm will trim employee numbers through natural attrition, cutting positions, divestment, outsourcing, and layoffs, it said.
The annual savings for Orsted are expected to amount to 2 billion Danish krona ($311 million) from 2028.
“This is a necessary consequence of our decision to focus our business and the fact that we’ll be finalising our large construction portfolio in the coming years – which is why we’ll need fewer employees,” Errboe added on Thursday. “At the same time, we want to create a more efficient and flexible organisation and a more competitive Ørsted, ready to bid on new value-accretive offshore wind projects.”
— CNBC’s Sam Meredith and Spencer Kimball contributed to this article.
Environment
Ferrari is rejecting fake engine noise for its first EV, and opts for ‘authentic’ motor sound
Ferrari has released details about its approach to powertrain sounds with its first electric vehicle, the Elettrica, and I am intrigued. If well-executed, I even think it might convince some petrolheads to give EVs a try.
In short, Ferrari is rejecting fake engine noise for its first EV and opts for an ‘authentic’ yet improved electric powertrain sound directly generated by the electric motors.
Today, Ferrari released the specs and tech details of its first all-electric vehicle, the Elettrica.
I’ve already posted a detailed article going through the specs, as well as the powertrain and chassis technologies developed by Ferrari for this impressive next-gen EV.
But I wanted to write a separate article specifically about Ferrari’s approach to sound in its first all-electric car because I think its strategy is exciting. I even believe that it could convince some hardcore petrol heads who reject EVs to give them a real shot.
For years, legacy automakers have struggled with how to engineer an auditory experience for EVs that replaces the roar of combustion.
Whether you like them or not, engine sounds are essential, especially in performance vehicles. They are part of the identity of certain cars – a sort of signature. They can be emotional. They can give a sense of power.
But beyond that, they are information. The pitch, volume, and texture of the engine sound provide critical, real-time feedback to the driver about RPM, load, and the car’s health.
Some electric automakers are using curated soundscapes (like BMW with Hans Zimmer) or trying to mimic V8s (like Dodge with its “Fratzonic Chambered Exhaust“). I don’t have a problem with those as long as they are optional, meaning you can turn them off, as I’m not a fan of cars making fake noises.
Other automakers are simply letting the natural sounds of the electric motors exist. There’s nothing wrong with that. However, considering that electric motors produce minimal sounds, which are then trapped inside a metal casing, you rarely hear anything significant, especially in modern vehicles with quiet cabins and even active noise cancellation.
For most EVs, this is not a problem, but for a performance electric vehicle, it does feel like something is missing.
Ferrari’s approach to sound in its first electric car
Ferrari’s solution is a novel one, focusing on what it calls an “authentic voice unique to the electric engine.”
I attended Ferrari’s tech day for the Elettrica, and Antonio Palermo, the brand’s head of NVH (noise, vibration, harshness) and sound quality, gave an excellent presentation about how the company approaches the problem.
He said that there was a lot of internal debate at Ferrari about how to manage the powertrain:
It took us a long time to reach a consensus about what sound to get, but it was clear that we wanted something authentic.
Again, the problem with being authentic with an electric vehicle is that if the powertrain and packaging team did their job right, there’s little sound to play with.
An electric guitar inspired Palermo’s solution. Unlike an accoutic guitar, an electric drive unit doesn’t a hollow body or sound hole to convert the string vibrations into audible sound.
Much like an electric guitar, Ferrari’s solution involves capturing and amplifying the actual vibrations of the drivetrain components. The automaker explained:
A high-precision sensor installed on the rear axle picks up the frequencies of the powertrain, which are amplified and projected into the surroundings as with an electric guitar… the sensor used is an accelerometer installed at a very rigid point on the inverter casting.
This approach, which utilizes an accelerometer to capture solid-borne vibrations from the drive unit, enables Ferrari to amplify a sound that matches exactly what the motors produce – making it authentic.
Ferrari insists the sound will only be used when “functionally useful” to provide feedback to the driver and will be directly tied to torque requests.
In normal driving situations, silence is preferred to maximise acoustic comfort, but when the driver requests torque from the powertrain by accelerating or uses the shift paddles in manual mode, the sound activates to offer dialogue and connection between driver and car.
Palermo added that the latency is non-perceivable to the human ear. In spirited driving, you will be able to hear the motor accelerate, regen, or even decouple since front motors of the Elettrica are equipped with a disconnect to turn the vehicle into a rear-wheel-drive.
The entire system was reportedly developed in-house, giving Ferrari complete control over the vehicle’s final acoustic signature.
Electrek’s Take
This is a fascinating and, frankly, refreshing move from Ferrari. We’ve seen numerous gimmicks from legacy automakers attempting to make their EVs feel and sound like the gas cars they are replacing. Most of them fall flat because they are fundamentally inauthentic.
Ferrari’s “electric guitar” approach is different. By choosing to amplify the real sounds of the electric motor and inverter based on the real vibrations, they are embracing the new technology rather than hiding it. They are making a confident statement that an electric powertrain can be emotionally engaging on its own terms, without having to pretend to be something it’s not.
It’s a brilliant piece of engineering that stays true to the brand’s performance-focused ethos, where sensory feedback is a critical part of the driving experience. And it’s optional. If you prefer a completely silent drive, you can disable it.
The purists who were worried that Ferrari would lose its soul in the EV transition should be encouraged by this.
Ultimately, it could even convert some of those petrol head purists who can’t stand a car experience without the smell of gasoline and the roaring sounds of combustion.
However, we need to hear it first. Everyone who heard it at Ferrari seemed impressed, but they are obviously biased. The test drivers are reportedly enjoying the audio feedback, but the brand is staying secretive.
As I reported in my full article about the Ferrari Elettrica, the automaker is doing the unveiling in three parts. This is just the first part, covering specs and technical details. We will have to wait for the second (Q1 2026) or third (Q2 2026) part to hear about the vehicle.
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