Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
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A surprise decision by several OPEC+ producers to voluntarily cut output earlier this month had pushed analyst oil price forecasts near $100 per barrel, but stagnating prices now point to a deepening divide between macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals.
Oil prices have once again lulled near the $80 per barrel threshold, nearly revisiting territory walked in early April, before members of the OPEC+ coalition announced a unilateral cut totaling 1.6 million barrels per day until the end of the year.
The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its Brent forecast up by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
Analysts now flag that broader financial turmoil has so far obstructed this bullish outlook, as supply-demand factors are outweighed by recessionary concerns.
“Oil markets have completely faded the boost from the surprise OPEC+ cut earlier this month, and we think this primarily reflects deep pessimism about the macro outlook, with little evidence of incremental weakness in demand so far,” Barclays analysts said in a Wednesday note.
“Weaker refining margins and freight demand have been in focus recently, but we believe markets might be reading too much into the implications of these trends for the demand outlook. We also think that markets might be underestimating OPEC+’s resolve to keep the inventory situation in check.”
“People really bet on a China reopening,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.
Beijing, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic “zero-Covid” restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. China has been progressively lifting its pandemic measures since the end of last year, and local crude oil demand is returning — but at a more “muted” pace, Croft noted.
“And the issue of the Fed is real. I think that is something that a lot of us got wrong in terms of the impact of, you know, the rate hikes, recession concerns,” she added.
“We have these OPEC cuts in place, we do have, you know, again, strong demand in India, China is reopening — this should be set up for a bullish story. People are still optimistic about the back half of the year, but the question is, can you get through the big macro wall of worry?”
Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC by e-mail that oil prices have suffered from a “constant barrage of gloomy macroeconomic news that creates a negative sentiment background,” as well as market distrust in the implementation of the OPEC+ production cuts. Market participants often wait for a visible reflection — such as lower export rates — to factor in production cuts, which can create a disconnect when vessel loadings arise from stock inventories.
But Katona projected price-supportive tightness in the physical markets over the summer season:
“We still see July and August as being the tightest months of 2023, with demand surpassing supply by some 2 million b/d (barrels per day), so the overall direction is still the same,” he said, noting that, globally, consumers will be exiting their annual refinery maintenance periods that curb their intake by that time.
“Net length in crude futures contracts has fully recovered from the banking panic seen in March and net length in WTI is the highest since November 2022, so the belief that prices are to increase is definitely widely shared by the market.”
But China’s long-anticipated reopening may prove too little, too late. One trade source — who could only comment on condition of anonymity because of contractual obligations — said the market is waiting for concrete signs of physical inventory draws. Another pointed to generally poor refining margins in Asia and a “poor demand cycle.” Another said that China’s reopening has been fully factored into the current pricing, and Beijing’s needs are simply being met by Russian oil. Moscow has rerouted 20% of the oil it supplied to Europe to other markets such as Asia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday, in comments reported by Reuters.
Kpler data indicates that China’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. Croft says that Chinese buyers have been “beneficiaries of sanctions policies,” as Moscow’s slashed prices also pushed other sanctioned sellers, such as Venezuela and Iran, to discount their crude.
OPEC+ weight
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
OPEC+ sources told CNBC at the time that these sentiment-driven fears would likely be temporary and pushed aside by supply-demand realities. The group convenes to discuss policy at a ministerial level for one of two annual meetings in June — when Croft flags that Gulf producers will likely set the agenda.
“When you think about Russia, Russia makes involuntary cuts. They basically rebrand the sanctions problem as a production cut. It’s really a question, I think, right now, about Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers, what they want to do. Again, Russia’s happy to have anything that raises prices, but they’re not in the driver’s seat.”
The weight of OPEC+ co-chair Russia within the group has been stifled by Western sanctions against its crude oil and oil product imports, in place since December and February, respectively.
As markets settle near $80 per barrel, Croft questioned what recourses still remain in the OPEC+ arsenal. “The question is right now, do they have more bullets to play, as we go into a June meeting?”
The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
“Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies,” it said.
Biden’s bid
Historically a defender of curbing prices at the pump, the U.S. has repeatedly called on OPEC+ producers to lift supplies, waging a war of words with group Chair Saudi Arabia when the coalition instead opted for a 2 million barrels per day cut in October. The U.S.’ own shale production, “traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs,” the IEA warns.
Throughout Biden’s presidency, U.S. energy policy has been defined by a push toward climate awareness. Shortly after taking office, the head of state suspended new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and kicked off a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Biden has openly criticized the oil sector for raking in profit at the expense of consumers, in June last year claiming ExxonMobil “made more money than God.”
But crude oil supply shortages and soaring gasoline prices have pushed Biden — who on Tuesday announced his re-election campaign — to reconsider his tactic, Croft holds.
“You have President Biden coming into office, essentially saying, Keep the oil in the ground. And now when he is faced with higher retail gasoline prices, essentially they say to oil companies, no, put the money in the ground. So we have seen a significant pivot on oil policy from the Biden administration,” she said Wednesday.
“That said, the fully robust defense of the American oil and gas is usually on the Republican end of the House.”
The Boring Company, Elon Musk’s tunneling startup, is reportedly facing significant issues with its new project in Nashville, Tennessee. A key subcontractor has walked off the job, alleging that the company has failed to pay for work completed on the “Music City Loop,” claiming they have received only 5% of what they are owed.
We have been following The Boring Company’s expansion efforts closely.
After the relative success of the Las Vegas Loop and several projects that failed to materialize, it looked like the company was winding down until a new proposal in Nashville gained some momentum.
However, a new report from the Nashville Banner indicates that the project is hitting a major wall.
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Shane Trucking and Excavating, a local contractor hired to handle preliminary work for the tunnel project, pulled its workers off the site this Monday. William Shane, the owner of the company, told the Banner that The Boring Company has “ghosted” them and failed to pay invoices totaling in the six figures.
According to Shane, the payment terms were initially set for every 15 days, then unilaterally switched to 60 days. Now, he claims it has been over 120 days since they broke ground, and his company has received only a fraction of the payment due.
“We were really skeptical from the beginning, and then since then, things pretty much just went downhill,” Shane said.
The contractor was reportedly responsible for preparing the launch pad for “Prufrock,” The Boring Company’s proprietary tunnel boring machine (TBM). We previously reported on Prufrock’s capabilities, with the company claiming it can dig tunnels significantly faster than conventional machines, supposedly porpoising directly from the surface to avoid digging expensive launch pits.
If the launch pad isn’t finished because the excavator wasn’t paid, Prufrock isn’t digging anywhere.
This isn’t the first time we’ve heard of payment issues involving Musk-led companies. Tesla has been known to not pay its bills, leading to small companies going bankrupt.
As The Boring Company was stiffing Shane on the bills, the company tried to poach workers from its own contractor and lied about it:
“One of their head guys texts two of my welders, offering them a job for $45 an hour from his work phone,” Shane described, noting that the same TBC employee denied sending the texts when confronted with screenshots. “That’s actually a breach of contract.”
On top of the missed payments, Shane alleges serious safety concerns. They made several official complaints to OSHA:
“Where we’re digging, we’re so far down, there should be concrete and different structures like that to hold the slope back from falling on you while you’re working. Where most people use concrete, they currently have — I’m not even kidding — they currently have wood. They had us install wood 2x12s.”
The Boring Company Vice President David Buss blamed missed payments on “invoicing errors” in a statement to the Banner:
“It does look like we had some invoicing errors on that. It was, you know, unfortunately, too common of a thing, but I assured them that we are going to make sure that invoices are wired tomorrow.”
He also said that he would look into the poaching allegations, but added that he is not aware of any OSHA complaints.
The “Music City Loop” was pitched as a solution to connect downtown Nashville to the airport, a route that is notoriously congested.
The Boring Company claims it can complete the project without public money, but there are some obvious issues with its financing.
Electrek’s Take
I’ve been willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on the “Loop” concept. While it falls short of the original “autonomous pods” vision or the “Hyperloop” speed dreams, the system in Las Vegas does work to move people, even if it is just Teslas in tunnels driven by humans.
There’s just no evidence that it would be more efficient than any other public transit system.
When Musk launched The Boring Company’s first test tunnel in LA, I asked him if he had any simulations showing his “loop” system to be more efficient. He said that they were working on that. That was 7 years ago.
Therefore, while The Boring Company appears to have achieved marginal improvements in tunnel boring, mainly when it comes to smaller tunnels; it has yet to show clear evidence that its Loop system is a better solution than any other public transit system.
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Heybike drops new Mars 3.0 folding e-bike back to its $1,199 low during Black Friday sale for first time since launch
As part of its ongoing Black Friday e-bike sale, and coming right alongside the equally new price cut on the Ranger 3.0 Pro, Heybike is giving us the first official post-launch discount on its Mars 3.0 Folding Fat-Tire e-bike for $1,199 shipped, as well as a FREE Black Friday gift pack. It launched back at the top of August with a $100 discount from its $1,299 full price, which is repeating here for the first time since those initial deals cooled, and while the discount may not be large, you’re certainly getting a lot of upgraded features for such a low price.
Designed for those riders who seek greater thrills, the new Heybike Mars 3.0 e-bike brings along the new Galaxy Perform eDrive System, which pairs a 750W rear hub motor (1,400W peak) with 95nM of torque (and an obvious torque sensor), as well as a removable 624Wh battery. This system allows you to reach 20 or 28 MPH top speeds, determined by your local laws, and provides pedal-assisted support for up to 65 miles on one full charge. Just like the equally new Ranger 3.0 Pro model, you’ll find a new TFT display on this generation that delivers NFC start-up so you can turn it on by simply tapping your device to the display.
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Aside from its continued space-saving, folding frame, you’ll also notice an improved 440-pound payload so heavier riders can get in on the fun or allow smaller riders to haul some serious cargo weight. The lineup of upgraded features includes a hydraulic suspension fork, a rear Horst link suspension, hydraulic disc brakes, 4-inch puncture-protected tires with fenders, a brake-lit taillight with turn signals, a headlight, a horn, a rear cargo rack, a Shimano Altus 8-speed derailleur, and more.
Heybike’s new-gen Ranger 3.0 Pro folding commuter e-bike gets first post-launch cut to $1,399 low for Black Friday
As part of Heybike’s ongoing Black Friday Sale, and coming in right alongside the new Mars 3.0 Folding e-bike price drop, we’re also now seeing the new Ranger 3.0 Pro Folding Fat-Tire e-bike getting a cut to $1,399 shipped and coming with a FREE Black Friday gift pack. This model was released alongside the Mars 3.0 back in August, and has remained at its $1,499 full price since the initial launch deals ended that month. Now, during this Black Friday season, the brand is offering the first post-launch discount we have seen, giving you another chance at $100 savings on an already lower-cost commuter solution at its best price that we have tracked. Of course, if you want an even more premium look, this model has a Limited Miami Sunset colorway option that has been given a price cut to $1,599 shipped, as well as a Black Friday gift pack and a Miami Sunset gift pack for more added goodies.
Like the Mars 3.0 counterpart, the new Heybike Ranger 3.0 Pro e-bike is quite the higher-end solution for folks seeking new commuting options, all while retaining accessible pricing. It’s been upgraded from the popular Ranger S model with the new Galaxy Perform eDrive System, combining a 750W rear hub motor (1,200W peak), 80nM of torque, and a 720Wh battery. This combination provides a max speed of 20/28 MPH (depending on individual state laws), as well as pedal-assisted support (presided over by a torque sensor) for up to 90 miles on one charge, making it quite the handy commuter – plus, there’s the space-saving folding frame when you reach your destination. It boasts a new TFT display that allows you to tap your phone for NFC start-ups, giving you an extra layer of smart security.
Among its upgraded features, you’ll find a hydraulic suspension fork, 4-inch puncture-protected tires with fenders over each, hydraulic disc brakes, a headlight and horn at its front, a taillight with brake lighting and turn signal lighting, an 8-speed Shimano Altus derailleur, and more. And pivoting back to its folding design, this model condenses even smaller than its predecessor to a 41.7-inch by 20.5-inch by 32.7-inch size.
Tesla’s Universal Wall Connector with dual NACS + J1772 connectors and customizable 48A speeds retains $50 cut to $600
Lectric XP4 Standard Folding Utility e-bikes with $326 bundle: $999 (Reg. $1,325)
Lectric XP Lite 2.0 Long-Range e-bikes with $449 bundles: $999 (Reg. $1,448)
Heybike Mars 2.0 Folding Fat-Tire e-bike with Black Friday gift: $999 (Reg. $1,499)
Heybike Ranger S Folding Fat-Tire e-bike with Black Friday gift: $999 (Reg. $1,499)
Best new Green Deals landing this week
The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.
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The EV4 will sadly not arrive in the US as expected, but Kia said it’s still planning on launching another EV that’s expected to be an even bigger hit.
Kia confirms EV4 delay, says another EV is still US-bound
The EV4, Kia’s first electric sedan, was expected to launch in the US within the next few months, but that will no longer be the case.
Kia has indefinitely delayed the launch of the EV4 in the US due to policy changes under the Trump administration.
The loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit and added tariffs on Korean imports have forced Kia, like many others, to adjust their US lineup.
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According to Kia America’s marketing boss, Russel Wager, the EV4 is only a small part of the broader tariff-related impacts the Korean automaker is facing. Wager told Car and Driver on the sidelines of the LA Auto Show that the changes will likely impact other vehicles and prices.
2026 Kia EV4 US-spec (Source: Kia)
When asked for specifics about why the EV4 is being pushed back, Wager said, “Can you give me the answer of when the tariffs are going to be resolved in Mexico, Canada, and Seoul? If you give me that answer, I’ll be as specific as possible.”
While the EV4 is delayed indefinitely, Wager suggested bringing the EV3 to the US, Kia’s compact SUV, is still part of the plan.
Kia EV3 (Source: Kia)
The Kia EV3 is already one of the most popular EVs in Europe and the UK’s best-selling retail electric car this year. Given the growing demand for smaller SUVs, the EV3 is expected to be an even bigger hit with US buyers than the EV4.
When it will launch in the US or how much it will cost remains up in the air until Kia gets a better idea of market conditions.
The 2026 Kia EV9 (Source: Kia)
Kia’s EV sales plunged after the federal tax credit expired at the end of September. Sales of the EV6 and EV9 fell by 71% and 66% last month compared to October 2024.
According to Wager, the automaker won’t really know what demand looks like until February or March 2026, since the loss of the $7,500 credit likely pulled buyers forward.
Kia EV3 Air in Frost Blue (Source: Kia UK)
Kia is still ready to launch the EV4 in the US, but that’s only if the tariff situation stabilizes. Earlier this month, the US and South Korea agreed to reduce tariffs on imports from 25% to 15%.
“At that point in time we look at it and say, are we at 25 [percent], are we at 15—and then we can build our business case,” Wager said, adding, “It was originally designed and engineered when the tariffs were zero percent.”
The electric pickup that Kia announced just a few months ago may never make it to the US. Wager pointed to Ford halting F-150 Lightning production and reports that it could be scrapped altogether.
In the meantime, Kia is heavily discounting its current electric vehicles, offering a $10,000 customer cash bonus on every model. Or, you can opt for 0% financing for 72 months plus an extra $2,500 bonus cash. Kia’s sister company, Hyundai, is also offering generous discounts with IONIQ 5 leases starting at just $189 per month.
Interested in a test drive? We can help you get started. You can use our links below to find Kia and Hyundai models in your area.
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