Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A surprise decision by several OPEC+ producers to voluntarily cut output earlier this month had pushed analyst oil price forecasts near $100 per barrel, but stagnating prices now point to a deepening divide between macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals.
Oil prices have once again lulled near the $80 per barrel threshold, nearly revisiting territory walked in early April, before members of the OPEC+ coalition announced a unilateral cut totaling 1.6 million barrels per day until the end of the year.
The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its Brent forecast up by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.
Analysts now flag that broader financial turmoil has so far obstructed this bullish outlook, as supply-demand factors are outweighed by recessionary concerns.
“Oil markets have completely faded the boost from the surprise OPEC+ cut earlier this month, and we think this primarily reflects deep pessimism about the macro outlook, with little evidence of incremental weakness in demand so far,” Barclays analysts said in a Wednesday note.
“Weaker refining margins and freight demand have been in focus recently, but we believe markets might be reading too much into the implications of these trends for the demand outlook. We also think that markets might be underestimating OPEC+’s resolve to keep the inventory situation in check.”
“People really bet on a China reopening,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.
Beijing, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic “zero-Covid” restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. China has been progressively lifting its pandemic measures since the end of last year, and local crude oil demand is returning — but at a more “muted” pace, Croft noted.
“And the issue of the Fed is real. I think that is something that a lot of us got wrong in terms of the impact of, you know, the rate hikes, recession concerns,” she added.
“We have these OPEC cuts in place, we do have, you know, again, strong demand in India, China is reopening — this should be set up for a bullish story. People are still optimistic about the back half of the year, but the question is, can you get through the big macro wall of worry?”
Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC by e-mail that oil prices have suffered from a “constant barrage of gloomy macroeconomic news that creates a negative sentiment background,” as well as market distrust in the implementation of the OPEC+ production cuts. Market participants often wait for a visible reflection — such as lower export rates — to factor in production cuts, which can create a disconnect when vessel loadings arise from stock inventories.
But Katona projected price-supportive tightness in the physical markets over the summer season:
“We still see July and August as being the tightest months of 2023, with demand surpassing supply by some 2 million b/d (barrels per day), so the overall direction is still the same,” he said, noting that, globally, consumers will be exiting their annual refinery maintenance periods that curb their intake by that time.
“Net length in crude futures contracts has fully recovered from the banking panic seen in March and net length in WTI is the highest since November 2022, so the belief that prices are to increase is definitely widely shared by the market.”
But China’s long-anticipated reopening may prove too little, too late. One trade source — who could only comment on condition of anonymity because of contractual obligations — said the market is waiting for concrete signs of physical inventory draws. Another pointed to generally poor refining margins in Asia and a “poor demand cycle.” Another said that China’s reopening has been fully factored into the current pricing, and Beijing’s needs are simply being met by Russian oil. Moscow has rerouted 20% of the oil it supplied to Europe to other markets such as Asia, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday, in comments reported by Reuters.
Kpler data indicates that China’s imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. Croft says that Chinese buyers have been “beneficiaries of sanctions policies,” as Moscow’s slashed prices also pushed other sanctioned sellers, such as Venezuela and Iran, to discount their crude.
OPEC+ weight
Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities.
OPEC+ sources told CNBC at the time that these sentiment-driven fears would likely be temporary and pushed aside by supply-demand realities. The group convenes to discuss policy at a ministerial level for one of two annual meetings in June — when Croft flags that Gulf producers will likely set the agenda.
“When you think about Russia, Russia makes involuntary cuts. They basically rebrand the sanctions problem as a production cut. It’s really a question, I think, right now, about Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers, what they want to do. Again, Russia’s happy to have anything that raises prices, but they’re not in the driver’s seat.”
The weight of OPEC+ co-chair Russia within the group has been stifled by Western sanctions against its crude oil and oil product imports, in place since December and February, respectively.
As markets settle near $80 per barrel, Croft questioned what recourses still remain in the OPEC+ arsenal. “The question is right now, do they have more bullets to play, as we go into a June meeting?”
The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
“Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge. The latest cuts risk exacerbating those strains, pushing both crude and product prices higher. Consumers currently under siege from inflation will suffer even more from higher prices, especially in emerging and developing economies,” it said.
Biden’s bid
Historically a defender of curbing prices at the pump, the U.S. has repeatedly called on OPEC+ producers to lift supplies, waging a war of words with group Chair Saudi Arabia when the coalition instead opted for a 2 million barrels per day cut in October. The U.S.’ own shale production, “traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs,” the IEA warns.
Throughout Biden’s presidency, U.S. energy policy has been defined by a push toward climate awareness. Shortly after taking office, the head of state suspended new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and kicked off a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Biden has openly criticized the oil sector for raking in profit at the expense of consumers, in June last year claiming ExxonMobil “made more money than God.”
But crude oil supply shortages and soaring gasoline prices have pushed Biden — who on Tuesday announced his re-election campaign — to reconsider his tactic, Croft holds.
“You have President Biden coming into office, essentially saying, Keep the oil in the ground. And now when he is faced with higher retail gasoline prices, essentially they say to oil companies, no, put the money in the ground. So we have seen a significant pivot on oil policy from the Biden administration,” she said Wednesday.
“That said, the fully robust defense of the American oil and gas is usually on the Republican end of the House.”
![Watch Kia's new EV4 hatch carve up the Nurburgring, nearly on two wheels [Video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/11/Kia-EV4-Nurburgring.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
Kia’s upcoming entry-level EV has finally made its way to the famous Nurburgring for testing. The EV4 hatch was spotted ripping across the track, nearly on two wheels at one point, as Kia preps for its big debut.
According to Kia, the EV4 is “an entirely new type of EV sedan. ” It was first unveiled last October during Kia’s first annual EV Day, alongside the EV3 and EV5 as part of its new low-cost lineup.
The EV5 launched in China last year, while the EV3 is already rolling out in Korea and Europe. Next up, we will finally see the production version of the EV4.
Although its four-door format suggests it’s a sedan, Kia said the EV4’s bold design is a symbol of the company’s innovation. Its low nose, long-tail silhouette, and added roof spoiler give it an almost racecar-like feel.
With its official debut approaching, Kia’s EV4 has been spotted out in the wild several times. Last week, it was caught testing in the US for the first time.
A hatchback model has also been spotted. It was first caught on European roads this summer and in the US earlier this month.
Kia EV4 hatch takes on the Nurburgring as debut looms
After the EV4 was spotted racing across the Nurburgring for the first time, we are getting our best look yet at the upcoming Kia model.
The video from CarSpyMedia shows the EV4 hatch carving up sections of the track. Several times, you can see the EV4 is being pushed to the limits, nearly going up on two wheels.
However, with a low center of gravity and likely added stabilization tech, the EV4 appears to handle it with ease. You can also see the difference between the sedan model and the hatchback, with the bulky backside.
As it takes on the track, it almost looks like the 576 hp EV6 GT, Kia’s fastest and most powerful car. At least for now.
Kia is expected to officially reveal the EV4 by the end of the year, with deliveries starting in 2025. Prices are expected to be in the $30,000 to $40,000 range. The hatchback model is likely aimed at Europe, but it could also find a market in the US as buyers drift toward more efficient options.
Ahead of the LA Auto Show later this week, Kia is teasing five new vehicles for the US, at least one being an EV. Will it be the EV4? EV3?
Source: CarSpyMedia
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Elon Musk is hinting at Tesla making bigger electric cars, but you shouldn’t hold your breath as it’s not the first time he said that.
In the last few hours, Musk responded to two fans on X, asking Tesla to build bigger vehicles to support larger families.
Musk often promotes the idea of having bigger families as he is afraid of declining populations due to low birth rates in some countries.
With the first one, the CEO responded with a simple “OK,” and with the other, he elaborated a bit more by referencing the recently unveiled Tesla Robovan and “some other things”:
Musk appears to be hinting at Tesla’s work on a bigger electric vehicle that has yet to be unveiled.
While interesting, it’s hard to give too much weight to the comment, considering Musk claimed that Tesla has been working on a higher passenger capacity vehicle for years.
A “high passenger-density urban transport” vehicle has been in Tesla’s official product roadmap since 2016 and has yet to be unveiled, unless you count the Robovan unveiled last month, but that’s completely attached to Tesla’s self-driving effort as the vehicle has no steering wheel or pedals.
As part of Tesla’s shift toward autonomous driving, the automaker has pulled back plans for several new electric vehicle programs in favor of those without any driver inputs, like Cybercab and Robotvan.
Musk has also discussed the possibility of Tesla making an electric van on several occasions in the last few years.
Tesla is expected to soon unveil two new vehicles to be launch next year, but those are based on the Model 3 and Model Y and therefore, they aren’t likely to be bigger vehicles.
Electrek’s Take
Like most things Elon says lately, it goes in my “I’ll believe it when I see it” folder.
That said, I think an electric van that can be configured for cargo, camper, or passenger, would make a ton of sense in Tesla’s vehicle lineup.
Of course, it’s harder to get the greenlight for a vehicle program like that if your CEO is perpetually convinced that the company is on the verge of achieving self-driving and making steering wheels obsolete.
I’m more of the opinion that Tesla should have played it more careful and continue working on growing its human-driveable EV lineup while working on self-driving.
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Penske Truck Leasing is rolling out rooftop solar on its US truck leasing, rental, and maintenance buildings, starting in Illinois.
Penske Truck Leasing, which offers an electric truck fleet leasing program, wants to cut emissions and save energy, so it’s activated its first rooftop solar system at its new facility in Channahon, Illinois (pictured). The 200 kW system is expected to generate about 80% of the building’s energy needs, and the rest will be supplied by the local utility.
The next Penske Truck Leasing rooftop solar system to come online will be in Grand Rapids, Michigan, “in the coming months,” followed by another in Linden, New Jersey, in 2025. All three of these new buildings are part of Penske’s LEED building program, which is designed to reduce energy use and promote sustainability.
Seven of Penske’s existing facilities in California will also get solar retrofits. These locations, which include Fresno, Hayward, La Mirada, National City, Riverside, San Diego, and San Leandro, are expected to generate about 600 kW of renewable energy in total.
Penske has teamed up with Sunrock Distributed Generation under a power purchase agreement to make the California upgrades happen. The company is also working with ForeFront Power, based in San Francisco, as its lead consultant for the solar rollout.
On average, these solar-powered Penske facilities will generate around 1 million kWh of renewable energy each year, preventing about 442 metric tons of CO2 emissions annually. That’s equivalent to the amount of energy needed to power nearly 90 homes for a year.
Drew Cullen, senior vice president of fuels and facility services at Penske, highlighted the significance of this move, noting:
Our solar program is an important piece of our renewable energy strategy, and ForeFront Power continues to be an outstanding partner in helping us bring these projects to fruition.
These investments will allow us to directly generate our own renewable energy to power our locations and continue to support our customers with sustainable solutions.
Penske Truck Leasing, part of Penske Transportation Solutions, is headquartered in Reading, Pennsylvania, and operates over 437,000 vehicles across North America, with nearly 1,000 maintenance facilities and more than 2,500 rental locations. Its investment in solar power is a key part of its broader sustainability strategy to cut emissions and reduce reliance on traditional energy sources.
Read more: Penske and Hitachi just launched a big electric truck charging pilot
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