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The severe drought devastating the Horn of Africa by killing animals and crops and leaving millions without enough food would not have happened if humans had not heated the planet, scientists have concluded.

Since October 2020, season after season of failed rains in the eastern tip of the continent have brought the worst drought in 40 years, driving conflict and leaving more than four million people needing humanitarian aid.

Nineteen scientists from seven nations assessed if climate change had disrupted rainfall in the region and impacted agricultural drought, when crops and pastures are affected by dry conditions.

They found that the rainy season – March through to May – is turning drier, and the short rains season – typically October through December – is becoming wetter due to climate change.

They called the region’s experience with drought “one of a kind”.

Human-caused climate change has made agricultural drought in the Horn of Africa about one hundred times more likely, they said, adding the “ongoing devastating drought would not have happened at all without the effect of greenhouse gas emissions”.

Joyce Kimutai, head meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department, said: “Climate change has made the drought exceptional.”

As a result, 20 million people are at risk of acute food insecurity.

The team from the World Weather Attribution group, which specialises in rapid analysis of whether extreme weather was influenced by climate change, analysed historical weather data, including changes in the two main rainfall patterns in the region, alongside computer model simulations dating back to the 1800s.

While climate change has made drought more frequent and extreme in the Horn region, the scientists acknowledged that previous failed rainy seasons, high temperatures, conflict, fragile statehood and poverty are also to blame for the “devastating impacts”.

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Cheikh Kane, climate resilience policy advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, said: “People in the Horn of Africa are no strangers to drought, but the duration of this event stretched people beyond their ability to cope.

“Five consecutive seasons of below-normal rainfall, combined with rain-dependent livelihoods and vulnerability multipliers, like conflict and state fragility, have created a humanitarian disaster.”

Friederike Otto, senior climate scientist at Imperial College London and the leader of the study, said it underscored how climate change’s effects “strongly depend on how vulnerable we are”.

The United Nations said more than 20 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda and South Sudan have been affected by the drought, with more than 2.2 million displaced in Somalia and Ethiopia and severe maternal risks to hundreds of thousands of expectant or breastfeeding women.

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A famine could be declared in Somalia within weeks

Rod Beadle, head of relief and humanitarian affairs at Food for the Hungry, said almost 15 million children are exposed to acute malnourishment.

“Despite the recent rains in North Kenya, the pressure from previous failed seasons makes for a dire situation,” he said.

“The drought conditions have resulted in severely compacted soil that cannot absorb the water; hence the floods are more severe.

“The country is also facing severe outbreaks of cholera and other diseases as more refugees arrive.”

Watch the Daily Climate Show at 3.30pm Monday to Friday, and The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3.30pm and 7.30pm.

All on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, on YouTube and Twitter.

The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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Why Vladimir Putin seems to be raising the stakes

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Why Vladimir Putin seems to be raising the stakes

He may not be the one to sit down with Vladimir Putin, but Keith Kellogg, President Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, summed up the horror of Sunday’s ballistic missile strikes on Sumy succinctly.

“Today’s Palm Sunday attack by Russian forces on civilian targets in Sumy crosses any line of decency,” he said.

“As a former military leader, I understand targeting and this is wrong.”

Ukraine war latest: At least 34 people killed

Vladimir Putin gave up on decency long before he started this war.

What he seems to be risking by attacks of this scale is Donald Trump‘s patience.

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Russia launches strike on Ukraine

He does not seem to mind if strikes like this make a mockery of US attempts to bring the two warring parties to the table.

He does not seem to care if he alienates his US counterpart, who has been strangely predisposed to fawn over him to date.

Perhaps he is raising the stakes as high as he can to illustrate his strength of hand: Strikes on civilians damage Ukrainian morale – even if they are hardly battlefield wins – and on the battlefield, he is pushing ahead and does not want to stop.

Pic: Reuters
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At least 34 people, including two children, were killed in Sumy on Sunday. Pic: Reuters

Perhaps he knows that if he keeps up his military momentum, President Trump will tire of a conflict he realises he cannot solve and let the matter slip while staying true to his MAGA-economic priorities by letting funds for Ukraine dry up.

Perhaps he thinks President Trump is so keen on a rapprochement with Russia, on the big Putin-Trump bilateral, that the details, the civilian deaths along the way, will all be by-the-by when that long-sought photo-op finally happens.

Whatever it is, President Putin seems to be in no rush to get things settled.

His spokesman told a Russian state reporter on Sunday that talks were under way at several levels but that “of course, it is impossible to expect any instant results”.

Withdrawing his troops would get instant results. But that is not what Vladimir Putin wants.

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His war economy is working for him, and he has the attention of the one country he considers a worthy adversary, the United States.

In the meantime, this attack reinforces why President Zelenskyy’s plea for air defence systems is his top priority. And why a ceasefire cannot come soon enough.

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Israeli air strike hits Gaza hospital

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Israeli air strike hits Gaza hospital

An Israeli air strike has hit a hospital in Gaza City, with pictures showing the devastating aftermath at some of its wards.

The al-Ahli Arab Baptist Hospital was hit by multiple missiles, the Hamas-run health ministry said, adding hundreds of patients, medical personnel, and their companions were on site at the time of the attack.

It said the Israeli army had targeted what it described as “one of the oldest and most vital healthcare institutions operating in the Gaza Strip”.

One patient died during the evacuation as medical staff were unable to provide urgent care, it said.

No other casualties have been reported.

Staff inspecting the damaged hospital. Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said they “struck a command and control centre used by Hamas” in the hospital.

“The compound was used by Hamas terrorists to plan and execute terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops,” they said in a statemement.

“Prior to the strike, steps were taken to mitigate harm to civilians or to the hospital compound, including issuing advanced warnings in the area of the terror infrastructure, the use of precise munitions, and aerial surveillance.

“The Hamas terrorist organisation systematically violates international law while using civilian infrastructure, brutally exploiting the civilian population as a human shield for its terrorist activities.”

The health facility’s director, Dr Fadel Naim, said they were warned of the attack beforehand.

A closer look at what was the hospital's outpatient and laboratory wards. Pic: AP
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A closer look at what was the hospital’s outpatient and laboratory wards. Pic: AP

The outpatient and laboratory wards of the Al-Ahli Arab Baptist hospital. Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

Hamas has denied using hospitals for military purposes throughout the war and has accused Israel of intentionally targeting its medical infrastructure in its ongoing offensive.

The latest strikes come after Israel ended its ceasefire with Hamas and restarted its air and ground offensive.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has also imposed a month-long blockade on food, fuel and humanitarian aid – a tactic that rights groups say is a war crime.

Israel reconstructs Morag corridor

The Morag Corridor under construction. Pic: IDF
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The Morag Corridor under construction. Pic: IDF

On Saturday, Israel said it had completed the construction of a new security corridor that cuts off the southern city of Rafah from the rest of Gaza.

The security corridor was referred to by Israeli officials as the Morag Axis, a reference to a former Israeli settlement previously located in an area between the two southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis.

The prime minister said the move gives Israel control of a second axis in southern Gaza in addition to the Philadelphi Corridor, running along the border with Egypt, which Israel sees as a key line stopping weapons being smuggled into Gaza.

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Israeli forces encircle Rafah

Israel has also gained control of the Netzarim Corridor, which cuts off the northern third of Gaza from the rest of the territory.

Morag’s construction is part of Israel’s pledge to seize large parts of Gaza to pressure Hamas to release remaining hostages and accept proposed ceasefire terms, and it further squeezes Palestinians into shrinking areas of land.

In a statement on Saturday, Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said his country’s military would soon expand “rapidly” throughout most of Gaza and that Palestinians would “have to evacuate the fighting zones”.

He did not say where Palestinians were supposed to go.

The war between Israel and Hamas began when Hamas-led militants invaded Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.

Some 59 hostages are still being held in Gaza, with 24 still believed to be alive.

The ensuing Israeli offensive has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but has previously said more than half of those killed in the conflict are women and children.

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Iran says ‘indirect talks’ have taken place with US over nuclear programme – with more to follow

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Iran says 'indirect talks' have taken place with US over nuclear programme - with more to follow

Iran says “indirect talks” over the country’s rapidly advancing nuclear programme have taken place with US officials, with more to come next week.

The discussions on Saturday took place in Muscat, Oman, with the host nation’s officials mediating between representatives of Iran and the US, who were seated in separate rooms, according to Esmail Baghaei, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry.

After the talks concluded, Oman and Iranian officials reported that Iran and the US had had agreed to hold more negotiations next week.

Oman’s foreign minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi tweeted after the meeting, thanking Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff for joining the negotiations aimed at “global peace, security and stability”.

“We will continue to work together and put further efforts to assist in arriving at this goal,” he added.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi (left) meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi. Pic: Iranian Foreign Ministry/AP
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(L-R) Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi meets his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi. Pic: Iranian foreign ministry/AP

Iranian state media claimed the US and Iranian officials “briefly spoke in the presence of the Omani foreign minister” at the end of the talks – a claim Mr Araghchi echoed in a statement on Telegram.

He added the talks took place in a “constructive atmosphere based on mutual respect” and that they would continue next week.

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American officials did not immediately acknowledge the reports from Iran.

Mr Araghchi said before the meeting on Saturday there was a “chance for initial understanding on further negotiations if the other party [US] enters the talks with an equal stance”.

He told Iran’s state TV: “Our intention is to reach a fair and honourable agreement – from an equal footing.

“And if the other side has also entered from the same position, God willing, there will be a chance for an initial agreement that can lead to a path of negotiations.”

Reuters news agency said an Omani source told it the talks were focused on de-escalating regional tensions, prisoner exchanges and limited agreements to ease sanctions in exchange for controlling Iran’s nuclear programme.

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Trump on Monday: ‘We’re in direct talks with Iran’

President Donald Trump has insisted Tehran cannot get nuclear weapons.

He said on Monday that the talks would be direct, but Tehran officials insisted it would be conducted through an intermediary.

Mr Trump also warned Iran would be in “great danger” if negotiations fail.

“Hopefully those talks will be successful, it would be in Iran’s best interests if they are successful,” he said. “We hope that’s going to happen.”

He added Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon, and if the talks aren’t successful, I actually think it will be a very bad day for Iran”.

The comments came after Mr Trump’s previous warnings of possible military action against Iran if there is no deal over its nuclear programme.

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Saturday’s meeting marked the first between the countries since Mr Trump’s second term in the White House began.

During his first term, he withdrew the US from a deal between Iran and world powers designed to curb Iran’s nuclear work in exchange for sanctions relief.

He also reimposed US sanctions.

Iran has since far surpassed that deal’s limits on uranium enrichment.

Tehran insists its nuclear programme is wholly for civilian energy purposes but Western powers accuse it of having a clandestine agenda.

Mr Witkoff came from talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin on Friday, as the US tries to broker an end to the war in Ukraine.

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