That simple ‘hi’ text from a stranger could be the start of a scam that ends up costing you millions
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Halfpoint | Istock | Getty Images
The road to Kaimi’s ruin started in December, with an Instagram message about a Japanese monkey from a handsome stranger who called himself Mike. Over the coming months Mike and Kaimi would develop a friendship that quickly evolved into a romance.
Kaimi had no idea he had become ensnared in a romance scam known as “pig butchering,” from the Chinese phrase sha zhu pan — the name coming from the idea that scammers must “fatten up” victims first with flattery and fake bonding before stealing their money.
Experts told CNBC it’s easy to dismiss victims of these scams as ignorant or foolish, but doing so discounts how manipulative the scammers are.
Matt Friedman is the CEO of the Mekong Club, a Hong Kong-based organization that works with corporations to fight modern slavery. “Ten scams come by, and they’re very clearly a scam,” Friedman told CNBC. “But the 11th one, I even may even fall for it.”
The scam often starts with a simple text message – “Hi!” Many people disregard the messages that scammers send.
But if they respond, the scammers move quickly to establish a rapport. The mystery texter might say they’re a wealthy executive. They’ll share images of their lavish lifestyle. Eventually, they’ll try to make a meaningful romantic bond with the victim. It can take anywhere from a few weeks to a few months.
At the third stage, the scammers offer to “teach” the victim how to trade cryptocurrencies or foreign currencies. The scammer networks operate fake trading platforms that look “exactly the way they should look,” Friedman told CNBC. Victims are “taught” how to trade by their scammer, and the fake exchanges are engineered to show nonexistent profits of 15% to 20%.
When victims try to withdraw money or have run out of fresh funds, the fake exchanges shut down the accounts and demand payment. Panicked and encouraged by their so-called friend, the victims wire what little money they have left. The exchange and their “friend” block the victim shortly after.
It can take weeks before victims understand they’ve been scammed, and even longer to admit what has happened to them.
Experts told CNBC that the scammers on the phone aren’t the real beneficiaries of the scam, although they do sometimes get a cut of the proceeds. Most often, they’ve been trafficked to Cambodia, Laos, or Myanmar to work for organized scamming networks, according to extensive reporting from ProPublica and Vice.
Law enforcement and prosecutors acknowledge pig-butchering is a problem but tell victims they’re largely unable to help. Reported U.S. losses from investment scams totaled $3.31 billion last year, according to the FBI, but experts say that many victims are too embarrassed to report their losses.
The U.S. manages to recover relatively little. The Justice Department’s only public action seized just $112 million. Federal prosecutors in New York and Virginia have also been pursuing domain names and individuals linked to the scams.
Dennis, a small business owner in Maryland, told CNBC his scammer Sarah reached out to him on Facebook around the same time that Mike first reached out to Kaimi.
CNBC has altered their names to protect their identities, as both Dennis and Kaimi shared personally identifiable information and identity documents with their scammers, and as Kaimi has not disclosed his sexual orientation to everybody in his life.
Kaimi lost more than $120,000 to his scammer. Dennis lost around $500,000.
‘My love for you will last forever’
Mike first messaged Kaimi in late December, cracking a joke about a Japanese monkey that Kaimi had posted.
“When I was looking at who had messaged, I was like, ‘I don’t know if this person is real,'” Kaimi told CNBC. After a few days, Kaimi sent back a perfunctory message. Mike promptly responded and engaged enthusiastically with Kaimi, before suggesting they move to a messaging app called Line.
CNBC reviewed thousands of messages between Kaimi and Mike running through Apr. 2023.
They bonded over their shared love of travel, and Mike eventually invited Kaimi to visit him Seoul. They’d go shopping, Mike said.
Kaimi told Mike that his schedule as a teacher didn’t let him just jet around the world, and he’d have to save money for an international trip. When pressed, Kaimi told Mike about his financial difficulties, stemming from past credit-card debt.
Mike suggested teaching Kaimi how to trade in foreign currencies so he could travel to Seoul and pay off his debt.
Mike alternated between talking about making Kaimi rich and sending him what Kaimi described as “flowery” messages.
“My love for you will last forever,” Mike told him.
Kaimi acquiesced in January, and created an account on the forex platform Mike claimed he used, called DPEX.
DPEX wasn’t a real exchange, but a front controlled by the same scamming group that Mike belonged to.
Over the following weeks, Kaimi wired thousands of dollars from his bank to Crypto.com, a centralized exchange. He used it to buy ether and send it to DPEX’s wallets.
His transfers started small – the first was worth just $140. DPEX claimed it converted his ether transfers into Tether, a U.S. dollar stablecoin.
Mike and Kaimi’s first trade together was a bet against the Japanese yen falling in value. When Kaimi saw he’d made $20 on a $100 trade, he was sold.
Mike offered to help Kaimi structure a plan to use profits from DPEX pay off his $300,000 in student loans, mortgage, and credit cards. In February, Mike even “sent” $30,000 from his own DPEX account to Kaimi’s to help him move closer to his debt-free goal.
“I want to repay you as soon as possible, shrink down most of the debt, then plan a trip to Korea to see you,” Kaimi told Mike. Mike pressed Kaimi to add more to his account and join him in bigger bets. He grilled Kaimi about how else he could raise money, from friends or through loans.
In all, Kaimi sent DPEX more than $100,000 worth of ether. His paper profits grew handsomely: in one week in March, Kaimi’s balance went from $100,000 to $310,000.
“I thought I was someone who knew when they were being scammed, was able to discern things,” Kaimi told CNBC.
But when Kaimi told Mike he was planning to withdraw his funds, the penny dropped. DPEX froze Kaimi’s account, claiming that Mike’s generous $30,000 “gift” was a suspicious transaction.
Mike claimed his account was frozen too. “OMG,” Mike said. “we are the same.”
DPEX asked that Kaimi pay back that gift to unlock his full account balance. Kaimi had planned to do so anyway, but sent DPEX nearly $30,000 to settle the “debt.”
The scammers settled into a predictable pattern, pumping Kaimi for more and more fees and taxes. Kaimi paid $64,000 in apparent penalties, urged on by Mike. When the scamming operation asked him for another $65,000, Kaimi realized that there was no chance he was getting his money back.
When Mike pressed him to pay DPEX’s “fees,” Kaimi snapped. “I’ve filed a report to the FBI and the SEC,” he told Mike.
‘I thought of ending everything’
This is one of the images that Dennis’s scammer, “Sarah,” sent him. The face has been blurred to disguise the identity of the woman pictured, whose image may have been used without her knowledge.
Dennis didn’t have any reason to be suspicious when his first scammer, Sarah, messaged him on Facebook.
“I just said hi and bye,” Dennis told CNBC. “But she keeps approaching me,” he said. “We became friends.”
Sarah claimed she was a wealthy executive at a Chinese electric-vehicle manufacturer. She showed him photos of her “uncle” with Alibaba’s Jack Ma. She sent him photos and videos from luxurious stores and apartments.
But it was her show of affection and care more than her material wealth that drew Dennis close.
“They talk to you and manipulate you,” Dennis told CNBC. He was in the midst of separating from his wife. They shared a child together, and in his messages with Sarah, he shared his feelings of inadequacy as a father.
Sarah offered Dennis comfort. They talked for hours every day, and it was weeks before she first offered to teach him how to trade crypto.
Another picture “Sarah” sent Dennis.
Sarah said her powerful uncle ran a trading syndicate large enough to influence crypto prices and guarantee a profit. Experts say that scammers will often cite a well-connected relative as part of their fictitious success.
Sarah pointed him to an “exchange” called Bigone-Eth, and could only be accessed through a iOS app called Trust Wallet. Dennis sent thousands of dollars from Coinbase to Trust Wallet, and gave the fake exchange permission to control the crypto in his Trust Wallet.
Sarah guided him through trades that predictably returned 20% From late December through January, Dennis bought nearly $160,000 worth of bitcoin for his “Bigone-Eth” account, and invested $100,000 worth of his cousin’s Bitcoin with Bigone-Eth as well.
It wasn’t enough for Sarah, who told Dennis he needed to invest at least $500,000. Otherwise, she suggested, Dennis’ son would “suffer” because of Dennis’ laziness.
But like Kaimi, Dennis felt he’d made enough. The hammer fell when he went to withdraw his winnings: Bigone-Eth froze him out and demanded $180,000 to release his $1.2 million balance.
The demand made Dennis suspect that the broker was trying to scam him out of his money. It was only in March, months after he began talking with Sarah, he began to investigate romance scams and fake crypto brokerages.
Along the way, he conducted an internet search and found a company called Financial Fund Recovery, or FFR, which said it specialized in crypto asset recovery.
Bankrupt and ‘scammed out of my mind’
In late March, Dennis spoke with a person claiming to be an FFR employee, John Seth, who told Dennis that Sarah and the exchange were part of the same scam. Seth also promised he could recover Dennis’ assets, something Dennis now believes was a lie.
Just a few days after Dennis spoke with Seth, he got an unsolicited call from someone identifying himself as Benjamin Grey. He claimed he worked at Bigone-Eth, and told Dennis that he could recover his money for $100,000. Dennis never provided Bigone or Sarah with his phone number, and now suspects Grey was working with Seth to scam him out of more money.
But Dennis, more alone than ever, trusted Seth. Seth urged Dennis to pay the fee but keep it secret from Sarah and the Bigone-Eth scammers. He borrowed $100,000 from his parents and sent it to Grey through Coinbase.
Dennis didn’t notice that Grey’s wallet address was different from the original scammers, nor that Grey’s email address had a slight misspelling of Bigone-Eth’s name. Dennis thought he was on the verge of getting his money back, of repaying his parents and his cousin and moving on from his life.
Dennis was out another $242,000 by the time Seth told him to stop talking with Grey.
Seth suggested suing Grey and Bigone for the lost money. He sent Dennis an invoice detailing how FFR would put a “lien” on Dennis’ Bigone account — which, in fact, was a fictitious account at a fictitious exchange. Dennis would simply have to wire $42,000 to an Abu Dhabi bank account to get started.
This time, Dennis realized he was being “scammed out of his mind,” and blocked both Seth and Grey.
CNBC spoke with Seth, who strongly denied that FFR was running a scam. He implied that Dennis was lying to CNBC, and said that FFR did not have an employee named Benjamin Grey.
CNBC has reviewed financial documents, emails, blockchain transactions, and recordings of calls between Dennis, Grey, and Seth. Despite his claims to the contrary, the recordings show Seth encouraging Dennis to send money to Grey. Both Seth and Grey contacted Dennis using VoIP numbers from the same issuer. Both numbers were disconnected after CNBC reached out to them.
Other attempts to reach FFR were not successful. In a text conversation with the number Dennis offered for Grey, the person on the other end denied knowing anything about the interaction with Dennis. A customer service representative at FFR’s Abu Dhabi-based bank confirmed that company had an account there but declined to provide further information.
FFR used an address of a coworking space in the state of Georgia to register as a limited liability company in Georgia. Over the phone, a receptionist at that coworking space told CNBC that FFR was not a tenant there, and that the mailbox used on the registration form did not exist at that space.
But the receptionist said that a visitor had been looking for FFR’s office just a few weeks prior, and had told the receptionist that FFR had made off with a scam victim’s money.
‘Powerless’
In the U.S., law enforcement are still grappling with how to seize and restore victims’ funds. In California, Santa Clara county prosecutor Erin West is pushing regulators and law enforcement to better understand how these scams work.
West has had some success at a local level in seizing a few million dollars for a handful of victims. But she says without federal intervention and private sector support, putting a meaningful dent in scamming operations will be difficult, if not impossible.
“I wish I could save them all,” she told CNBC. Both Dennis and Kaimi reached out to West, who did what she could to connect them with the right people.
But Dennis and Kaimi’s losses form just a small fraction of the billions of dollars lost to scammers from thousands of victims. In 2022, the Department of Homeland Security estimated scam-related losses at over $3.3 billion. Kaimi has considered filing for bankruptcy. His local Hawaiian bank has closed his checking and savings accounts, according to a letter from the bank shared with CNBC. Kaimi said a bank employee told him his Crypto.com wire transfers were the reason for the closure but didn’t offer any more information to him.
He’s filed multiple complaints, with the FBI, Secret Service, and regulatory agencies, but hasn’t heard back from any of them.
Dennis said he’s been in regular contact with the FBI about the scam. CNBC traced Dennis’ bitcoin to a wallet that’s received more than 59,000 bitcoin, worth about $1.6 billion, since 2019. The trail ends after that wallet, which regularly transfers its contents to the crypto exchange Binance.
Crypto exchanges like Binance, Crypto.com and Coinbase are convenient waypoints for scammers because they have a trusted reputation and massive trading volume. All three exchanges have warned of the dangers of crypto scammers, but for some, that isn’t enough.
When he reached out to Crypto.com, the exchange told Kaimi they couldn’t help him get his money back.
“I’m not asking you to take responsibility of getting my money back,” he said. But he pointed out that his scammers had used the same wallet for months.
West says that while private partners in the banking and crypto industry often are conduits for these kinds of scamming operations, they are also ideally positioned to cut off the supply of fresh money to pig butchering networks.
“We are essentially fleecing our entire middle class of their generational wealth, and handing it to bad actors overseas, and nobody’s stopping this,” West told CNBC.
Shortly before publication, Cloudflare shut down Bigone-Eth’s domain name and flagged it as a suspected phishing site. Neither Cloudflare nor the FBI responded to a request for comment.
Within hours, Dennis’ scammer sent him the new domain name and begged him to respond to her. Dennis ignored her.
“Disappointing men with no sense of responsibility,” she wrote the next day.
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Technology
Week in review: Stocks hit records on inflation data, earnings — plus, we started a new name
Published
2 days agoon
October 25, 2025By
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Stocks jumped for the second straight week and reached record highs Friday as Washington trade and shutdown drama took a back seat to cooler inflation data and stronger earnings. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 2% and 2.3%, respectively, for the week. In fact, the S & P 500 on Friday peaked above 6,800 for the first time ever before closing just below that level. Both stock benchmarks finished Friday with record-high closes. Propelling stocks on the final day of the trading week was an encouraging read on the consumer price index for September , which was released 10 days late due to the federal government shutdown. Headline CPI rose 0.3% month over month and 3% year over year. The increases were not as much as expected. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% from the prior month and 3% from the year-ago period. Again, both gains were less than expected. The CPI report was well received because it left the door wide open for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again when central bankers gather next week. .SPX .IXIC 5D mountain S & P 500 and Nasdaq weekly performance The CPI was also the only official economic data released during the government shutdown, which was headed into its fourth week. The Senate adjourned Thursday and won’t reconvene until Monday afternoon. As the shutdown dragged on, there was a lot of talk about President Donald Trump ‘s decision Friday to cancel trade talks with Canada, which ran an advertisement featuring former U.S. President Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about tariffs. On the more positive side of the trade ledger, the White House confirmed that Trump’s visit to Asia next week will include a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping . Neither the trade headlines nor the shutdown impasse moved markets. What did support the stock market, in addition to the inflation data, was a continued stream of great earnings reports , with roughly 30% of the S & P 500 posting quarterly results so far. In fact, 87% of those names beat earnings expectations, according to LSEG, which is much higher than the typical 67% beat rate. Club names Danaher, Capital One, GE Vernova , Honeywell , and Dover all followed that trend when they each released their numbers this week. On Tuesday morning, Danaher posted a beat on the top and bottom line as the life sciences company issued an upbeat initial forecast for its next fiscal year. Shares, in turn, surged. Investors cheered the much-needed positive news for Danaher after an extended period of underperformance. DHR YTD mountain Danaher YTD “Danaher has tested our patience in recent quarters as the post-pandemic recovery proved challenging for companies that serve the biotech and pharmaceutical industries; a material presence in China added another hurdle to overcome,” Zev Fima, portfolio analyst for the Club, wrote in his earnings analysis. “But a market reaction like we’re seeing Tuesday is why we were willing to stay invested in Danaher, once a reliable outperformer.” The Club maintained its $240-per-share price target but downgraded the stock to a 2 rating , meaning we would consider buying more shares on a pullback. That doesn’t mean a change in our Danaher thesis. Rather, shares have advanced over 22% since late September, when we last added to our position. Danaher rose nearly 6.7% for the week and was No. 2 on our weekly leader board. Capital One posted a sizable quarterly earnings beat on Tuesday evening. Our biggest takeaway from the nation’s largest credit card issuer was its better-than-expected credit performance. During Friday’s Morning Meeting, Jim Cramer said Capital One was still his “favorite stock in the portfolio, even though it’s come up huge from when we bought it.” COF YTD mountain Capital One YTD “Credit has become a hot topic in the market lately due to the notable collapses of auto parts manufacturer First Brands Group and the subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings. Since Capital One has a large exposure to the subprime market, some investors weren’t quite sure how its loans were holding up,” wrote Jeff Marks, director of portfolio analysis for the Club. “That’s why it was so important to see Capital One once again report strong credit metrics, with better-than-expected net charge-offs and provisions for credit losses.” The Club maintained its buy-equivalent 1 rating and $250 price target. Capital One’s weekly advance of nearly 6.5% put it fifth among our winners for the week. On Wednesday, GE Vernova reported strong earnings and robust backlog growth. Although management delivered on the most important line items, shares of the natural gas turbine manufacturer still tumbled amid weakness in speculative areas of the energy trade. GEV YTD mountain GE Vernova YTD The Club maintained its buy-equivalent 1 rating, though, encouraging members to buy shares the following session. We also reiterated our $700 price target on GE Vernova. After all, the unprecedented demand for more power because of increased AI data center investments is a financial windfall for energy stalwarts like GE Vernova. On Friday, Jim said, “This stock is a rocket ship,” comparing GE Vernova’s chart pattern to those of Alphabet , Advanced Micro Devices , and Oracle before those names mounted major rallies. While GE Vernova fell 2.6% this week and was our worst performer, the stock is still the second-best in the portfolio year to date, with an over 77% increase. Honeywell posted a stellar quarterly report Thursday that outpaced expectations on sales, earnings and organic growth. Management also hiked the industrial conglomerate’s full-year guidance. What’s most notable to us, however, is the rebound in the company’s aerospace division. The earnings report comes ahead of Honeywell’s spinoff of Solstice Advanced Materials on Oct. 30. The split of the remaining aerospace and automation division will be completed in the second half of 2026. HON YTD mountain Honeywell YTD “These spins stand to support further growth and drive shareholder returns as they will allow each of the three new entities to operate in a more focused and efficient manner,” Zev wrote in his earnings analysis Thursday. The Club reiterated its buy-equivalent 1 rating and $255 price target on Honeywell stock. Honeywell shareholders of record as of Oct. 17 will get one share of Solstice for every four shares of Honeywell. We plan to keep our Solstice shares and our Honeywell shares, which were our fourth-best this week, with a nearly 6.5% advance. Dover gave investors a reason to stick with the lagging stock after the company’s better-than-expected third-quarter profits on Thursday. Management also hiked its full-year earnings guidance, and highlighted Dover’s potential to benefit from lucrative trends like the AI buildout. DOV YTD mountain Dover YTD Dover stock had its second-best day of 2025 as a result. The Club reiterated its buy-equivalent 1 rating and price target of $210. After all, even with Thursday’s pop, Dover shares are still trading at a steep discount to its industrial peers. Dover was our third-best weekly performer — rising nearly 6.6% over the past five trading days. Ten portfolio names are on the docket next week: Amazon, Apple , Bristol Myers Squibb, Boeing , Corning , Eli Lilly, Linde, Meta Platforms, Microsoft , and Starbucks. Through it all, we’ll examine our thesis for each one, which can result in changes to our ratings or price targets. To be sure, quarterly earnings aren’t the only time we do that. Texas Roadhouse was a prime example this week. We downgraded Texas Roadhouse on Tuesday from a buy-equivalent 1 to a 2 rating. Rising beef prices continue to pressure margins for Texas Roadhouse, a headwind that’s likely to continue through 2026 as well. Making matters more complicated, management can only slowly pass through beef inflation with menu price increases as well. Still, we’re sticking it out in the stock for now. Texas Roadhouse was one of many portfolio moves made this week. We executed three trades, too. On Tuesday, the Club started a position in Corning . The company – known for manufacturing specialty glass, including fiber optic cables – will be a beneficiary of the AI buildout. That’s because the rise of AI will increase demand for those same connectivity products since they’re inside data centers. We also like Corning stock because of its Apple partnership. Club holding Apple previously announced a $2.5 billion commitment to Corning, which makes the cover glass for all iPhones and Apple Watches. That same session, the Club booked profits in Wells Fargo after the stock’s big post-earnings advance to record highs. We realized a gain of roughly 170% on shares purchased in January 2021. The sale, however, doesn’t reflect a change in our long-term bull thesis in the bank. On Friday, we sold some Eaton shares — capitalizing on the electrical equipment maker’s recent rebound. Eaton has rallied back up since management’s third-quarter guidance in early August came in below expectations and whacked shares. We thought the post-earnings selloff was unwarranted, given the success of its Electrical Americas business, which heavily benefits from the AI boom. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Technology
AI spending is boosting the economy, but many businesses are in survival mode
Published
2 days agoon
October 25, 2025By
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Cameron Pappas, owner of Norton’s Florist
Norton’s
For Cameron Pappas, owner of Norton’s Florist in Birmingham, Alabama, the artificial intelligence boom is a world away.
While companies like Nvidia, Alphabet and Broadcom are lifting the stock market to fresh highs and bolstering GDP, Pappas is experiencing what’s happening in the real economy, one that’s far removed from Wall Street and Silicon Valley.
Small businesses like Norton’s, and companies of all sizes in retail, construction and hospitality, are struggling from higher costs brought by the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs, and as downbeat consumers reduce their spending.
“We’ve just got an eagle eye on all of our costs,” Pappas, 36, told CNBC in an interview.
Norton’s generated $4 million in revenue last year, selling flowers, plants and gifts to locals. To avoid raising prices, which could cause customers to flee, Pappas has been forced to get creative, reworking some of his designs.
“If a bouquet has 25 stems in it, if you reduce that by three to four stems, then you’re able to keep the price the same,” Pappas said. “It’s really forced us to focus on that and to make sure that we’re pricing things the best that we possibly can.”
Pappas’ story and many like it are being masked in the macro data by the power of AI. In the first half of the year, AI-related capital expenditures contributed to 1.1% of GDP growth, according to a September report from JPMorgan Chase. That spending outpaced the U.S. consumer “as an engine of expansion,” the report said.
Total U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.8% during the second quarter of 2025 after falling 0.5% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said.
U.S. manufacturing spending has contracted for seven straight months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. And construction spending has been flat to down, due to high interest rates and rising costs. Cushman & Wakefield said in a report this month that total project costs for construction in the fourth quarter will be up 4.6% from a year earlier because of tariffs on building materials.
The stock market shows a similar disconnect between AI and everybody else.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivers the keynote for the Nvidia GPU Technology Conference (GTC) at the SAP Center in San Jose, California, U.S. March 18, 2025.
Brittany Hosea-Small | Reuters
Eight tech companies are valued at $1 trillion or more and, to varying degrees, are all tied to AI. Those companies — Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla and Broadcom — make up about 37% of the S&P 500. Nvidia, with a $4.5 trillion market cap, accounts for over 7% of the benchmark’s value by itself.
Investors are giddy about the massive investments they’re seeing in AI infrastructure. Broadcom shares are up more than 50% this year after more than doubling in each of the prior two years, while Nvidia and Alphabet have jumped almost 40% in 2025.
That explains why the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 15% and 20%, respectively, reaching record highs on Friday, even as the government shutdown continues to cause economic angst.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 subgroups that include consumer discretionary and consumer staples companies have increased by less than 5% year to date.
The latest troubling sign in the consumer market came on Thursday, when Target said it’s cutting 1,800 corporate jobs — the retailer’s first major round of layoffs in a decade. Target shares have plunged 30% this year.
“I think the message that the AI economy is sort of driving up the GDP numbers is a correct one,” Arun Sundararajan, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, told CNBC in an interview. “There may be weakness in the rest of the economy, or not weakness, but there may be more modest growth.”
Investors will hear all about AI in the coming days, the busiest stretch of the quarter for tech earnings, and will be listening closely for additional guidance on capital expenditures. Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday.
Nvidia’s stock over the last year.
Last month, Nvidia announced a $100 billion investment in OpenAI, a startup valued at $500 billion. The capital will help OpenAI deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, which is roughly equivalent to the annual power consumption of 8 million U.S. households.
Shares of Advanced Micro Devices have doubled this year and soared more than 20% earlier this month after the chipmaker announced a deal with OpenAI, while Oracle has been on a tear of late due to its ties to OpenAI and the broader infrastructure buildouts.
“Are we sort of inflating the economy now, thereby setting ourselves up for a crash in the future?” Sundararajan said. He added that he’s not seeing signs that demand for AI infrastructure will slow anytime soon.
‘Tariff price management’
When it comes to local businesses, most only know about the AI gold rush from the news headlines. One in four small business owners are stuck in “survival mode” as they contend with challenges like rising costs and tariffs, according to a September KeyBank Survey. It’s a segment of the economy that routinely accounts for about 40% of the nation’s GDP.
Pappas’ flower shop was founded in 1921, and purchased by his dad in 2002. The business has survived the Great Depression, World War II and the Covid pandemic. Pappas said his father, who died in 2022, reminded him that these periods were “just another season” for Norton’s, and that such challenges come with the territory.
But Trump’s tariffs have created a whole new set of constraints, as roughly 80% of all cut flowers in the U.S. are imported from countries like Colombia and Ecuador, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Read more CNBC tech news
There’s no way for Norton’s to avoid higher import costs, but Pappas said he’s started buying some flowers directly from South American growers, which saves him money versus going through distributors that charge extra.
Pappas said it’s part of his “tariff price management” effort.
Trump’s tariffs will cost global businesses more than $1.2 trillion this year, and most of those costs are being passed onto consumers, according to S&P Global.
With the holiday season rapidly approaching, consumer sentiment is of particular importance. The picture is bleak.
The majority of U.S. consumers, 57%, that responded to a Deloitte survey published this month said they expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead, up from 30% a year ago. It’s the most negative outlook since the consulting firm began tracking sentiment in 1997.
Gen Z consumers, which the survey defined as ages 18 to 28, said they plan to spend an average of 34% less this holiday season compared to last year. Millennials, those between 29 and 44, said they expect to spend an average of 13% less this holiday season.
Additionally, seasonal hiring in the retail industry is poised to fall to its lowest level since the 2009 recession, according to a September report from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The firm released another report earlier this month that showed new hiring in the U.S. has totaled just under 205,000 so far this year, off 58% from the same period last year.
The Starbucks logo is displayed in the window of a Starbucks Coffee shop on Sept. 25, 2025 in San Francisco, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Starbucks announced a $1 billion restructuring plan in September that involves closing several stores in North America. Around 900 nonretail employees were laid off as part of the plan, and the company let go of another 1,100 corporate workers earlier this year.
Starbucks shares are down about 6% this year.
Shares of Wyndham Hotels & Resorts slumped on Thursday after the hotel chain issued disappointing third-quarter results. CEO Geoff Ballotti cited a “challenging macro backdrop” in the company’s earnings release. The stock is down roughly 25% year to date.
Even in parts of the tech industry that have benefited the most from the AI boom, companies have been conducting layoffs. Microsoft announced plans to cut around 9,000 jobs in July, which the company partly attributed to reducing layers of management. Salesforce is one of a number of tech companies that have announced layoffs, saying that AI can now handle the work.
But Hatim Rahman, an associate professor specializing in AI at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, said that most businesses using AI for efficiencies won’t find them right away. So companies can’t count on the technology to counter declining revenue and, Rahman said, “the road to the future is going to be bumpy.”
“AI is not a plug-and-play solution,” Rahman said. “For many organizations, it’s going to involve engagement with people, processes, culture, tools to be able to reap the benefits. And in the aggregate, it’s going to take time.”
WATCH: The AI boom is lifting the stock market, but it may be masking a weaker economy
Technology
More demand than supply gives companies an edge, Jim Cramer says
Published
2 days agoon
October 24, 2025By
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“Supply constrained,” are the two of the most important words CNBC’s Jim Cramer said he’s heard so far during earnings season and explained why this dynamic is favorable for companies.
“When you’re supplied constrained, you have the ability to raise prices, and that’s the holy grail in any industry,” he said.
Intel‘s strong earnings results were in part because of more demand than supply, Cramer suggested. He noted that the company’s CFO, David Zinsner, said the semiconductor maker is supply constrained for a number of products, and that “industry supply has tightened materially.”
Along with Intel, other tech names that are also supply constrained and performing well on the market include Micron, AMD and Nvidia, Cramer continued.
These companies don’t have enough product in part because the storage needs of artificial intelligence are incredible high, Cramer said. He added that he thinks demand has overwhelmed supply because semiconductor capital equipment companies didn’t manufacture enough of their own machines as they simply didn’t anticipate such a volume of orders.
Outside of tech, Cramer said he thinks airplane maker Boeing and energy company GE Vernova are also supply constrained, adding that he thinks the former will say it’s short on most of its planes when it reports earnings next week. GE Vernova is supply constrained with its power equipment, like turbines that burn natural gas, he continued, which is the primary energy source for the ever-growing crop of data centers.
GE Vernova and Boeing are also set to be winners because they make big-ticket items that other countries can buy from the U.S. to help close the trade deficit, Cramer added.
“In the end, we have more demand than supply in a host of industries and that’s the ticket for good stock performance,” he said. “I don’t see that changing any time soon.”
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