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There are three ways to judge how well the political parties do on election night.

First, by the number of council seats gained, secondly by the number of councils won and lost and thirdly by looking at vote shares – the proportion of people who vote for each of the main parties.

None of them will give you the full picture, however, as they battle in the early hours to give results the most positive gloss.

The fight has already begun in earnest – with parties’ claims and counterclaims about what to expect.

This is our guide to decoding what they will say.

In this Q&A, I asked Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher how he will interpret the results.

Q: Labour say the Conservatives did disastrously in 2019, which is the last time this set of elections took place. They argue the Tories should be judged on whether they are gaining seats, not losing them. Are they right?

Professor Thrasher: “The Conservatives are still the largest party of local government. They’re still defending the most seats this time.

“Why they might lose seats is simply because where they are currently in the national polls is lower than where they were in 2019 in terms of the national equivalent vote.

“In 2019, the Conservatives and Labour each got 31% of the national vote share. And so if the Conservatives are now below 30% and Labour is above 40%, it stands to reason that there’s a large swing from Conservative to Labour since four years ago. And therefore, for that simple reason, the Conservatives will lose seats to its principle opposition at these local elections.

“So yes, they lost 1,300 seats in 2019, but they are in a position where they should lose seats if polling is taken into account because Labour is so much further ahead of them now than it was in 2019.”

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The exclusive YouGov study for Sky News predicts big gains for Labour, while the Lib Dems could romp home in so-called ‘blue wall’ seats.

Q: The Tories have latched upon your 1,000-seat loss scenario. Are there more realistic alternative scenarios that we should be looking at for them?

Professor Thrasher: “Well, I think Conservative losses are inevitable.

But I think if they can keep those losses down to around 500 to 700, they will feel that Labour isn’t really hurting them a great deal, and possibly also the Liberal Democrats, who they are quite fearful of in parts of southern England like Surrey, Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire.

“[It would mean] they too are not breaking through and threatening Conservatives in the next general election.

So, I think if they can keep losses down below 500, they will probably believe that they’ve had a reasonably good night at this stage of the parliament, given the way in which the current opinion polls have them below 30%. They will take that, I suspect.”

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Q: Labour is saying a good night for them would be then gaining 400 seats. How does that fit in the benchmarks that you’ve done?

Professor Thrasher: “Well, I think that’s a very modest claim and given two things. Number one is where Labour currently is in the polls – it’s at 43%.

So again, if you recall, in 2019, we were saying that Labour was on 31%. That’s an increase of 12 percentage points on the position four years ago, so they should be doing well, and we think far better than 400 gains.

“Really, that’s a very modest swing from the Conservatives to Labour since 2019. They should really be aiming much higher than that, given what they need to do to win the next general election.”

Q: Often, you hear Labour politicians making the argument that these are not elections happening in their heartlands. These local councils, often shire councils, are not traditional places where Labour has a strong vote – how much validity is there in that?

Professor Thrasher: “That really, if you like, misses the point about the whole exercise of using local elections to calculate a national vote share. Because we take all of this into account.

“The way in which we calculate the national equivalent estimate is simply to look at the change in vote share in wards that voted in 2019 and in 2023.

So, it takes into account where these places are because if a council didn’t have an election, in 2019, we won’t be comparing with that result. So, we’re only comparing wards that are like for like, across those four years.

And for that reason, it doesn’t really matter where the elections are, because we’re looking at changing vote share.”

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Amanda Akass explained everything you need to know about local elections.

Q: Labour is keen to avoid comparisons with the local elections in 1995. They say you can’t compare those two, is that fair?

Professor Thrasher: “I don’t think it is fair, quite frankly. The reason being is that if we think about the context of the next general election, Labour requires a swing greater than Tony Blair received in 1997, which in itself remains the postwar record.

“So, I think it’s reasonable to compare with 1995 simply because Labour in 2024 has to do better than Blair did in 1997.

“And then for that reason, if Labour in 2023 is doing much, much worse than Labour did in 1995, then it stands to reason that quite frankly, they’re not in a good position to win the next general election.”

Q: Is it fair to say that Labour traditionally underperform in local elections as compared to general elections?

Professor Thrasher: “It is the case, and our projection allowed for the fact that Labour does perform rather worse in actual local elections than its current national opinion poll rating suggests. So we’ve factored that into our equation.

“It allows for the fact that the Labour lead over the Conservatives in terms of the overall estimate of the national vote at these locations is not going to be as great as the gap that it has in terms of the national opinion polls.”

Q: The Conservatives say a six or seven-point gap behind the Labour party would be a good night – being less than the polls suggest. Is that a fair benchmark to use?

Professor Thrasher: “Well, if we think about the national equivalent vote share from last year, it was 35% for Labour and 33% for the Conservatives.

“So, if they are five points adrift, then they’ve done worse than they did last year.

“This doesn’t suggest the party is catching Labour up necessarily, but they will certainly avoid the situation as in 1995, where Labour was on 47%, and the Conservatives were at 25% – a huge gap between the two parties and where Labour went on to win a landslide.

“I think the Conservatives really need to be within touching distance of Labour, bearing in mind where we are in terms of the parliament and bearing in mind that a general election is probably sometime next year.

“There is a limited amount of time for the Conservatives to catch Labour up, and therefore, they really should be within touching distance of them, not a long way behind.”


Professor Thrasher and his colleague Professor Colin Rallings have drawn up this guide for how to judge the results of the main political parties:

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How to cut through election night spin

Conservatives

  • 1000+ losses: A bad night with a third of all seats defended lost. Tory MPs in marginal ‘red wall’ and southern seats will be worried
  • 750 losses: A clear swing to Labour but rather less than opinion polls imply
  • 500 losses: The party will try to write this off as “mid-term blues” and argue the gap with Labour can be caught before the general election
  • Fewer than 300 losses: Council seats regained from Independents as Labour and Lib Dems fail to prosper

Labour

  • 700 gains+: This would be the best local election performance for at least a decade, putting the party on the path to becoming the largest party at Westminster in a general election, even if short of an outright majority
  • 450 gains: Results little better than a year ago
  • 250 gains: Disappointing in the context of the polls, suggesting limited success in winning back the ‘red wall’
  • Fewer than 150 gains: Effectively a step backwards for Sir Keir Starmer and his party

Liberal Democrats

  • 150+ gains: Eating into Conservative territory and could put some marginal constituencies in play at the next election
  • 50-100 gains: Comfortable enough in their own heartlands but only modest further progress
  • Fewer than 50 gains: Still struggling to pose a real threat to the Conservatives in the south

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Venezuela opposition leader Maria Corina Machado named Nobel Peace Prize winner

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Venezuela opposition leader Maria Corina Machado named Nobel Peace Prize winner

Venezuelan opposition leader and pro-democracy campaigner Maria Corina Machado has won the Nobel Peace Prize.

The committee praised her for “tireless work promoting democratic rights… and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy”.

It said she had resisted death threats and been forced into hiding in her fight against President Nicolas Maduro – widely considered a dictator.

“When authoritarians seize power, it is crucial to recognise courageous defenders of freedom who rise and resist,” Nobel added.

The committee said Ms Machado had stayed in Venezuela despite personal risk, calling it a “choice that has inspired millions of people”.

“Democracy depends on people who refuse to stay silent, who dare to step forward despite grave risk,” it said.

Maria Corina Machado at a protest in January - but she's now said to be in hiding. Pic: Reuters
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Maria Corina Machado at a protest in January – but she’s now said to be in hiding. Pic: Reuters

Nobel called her a 'key, unifying figure in a political opposition that was once deeply divided'. Pic: AP
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Nobel called her a ‘key, unifying figure in a political opposition that was once deeply divided’. Pic: AP

There was speculation Donald Trump had an outside chance despite nominations closing less then two weeks after he started his second term.

The president claims he has stopped seven wars since then – an assertion widely disputed – and last month said “everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also put the president’s name forward for the award in July.

The White House criticised the Nobel Prize committee’s decision on Friday.

“President Trump will continue making peace deals, ending wars, and saving lives. He has the heart of a humanitarian, and there will never be anyone like him who can move mountains with the sheer force of his will,” spokesman Steven Cheung said in a post on X.

“The Nobel Committee proved they place politics over peace.”

Nina Graeger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, told Sky News if Mr Trump’s Gaza peace deal leads to “a lasting and sustainable peace… the committee would almost certainly have to take that into serious consideration in next year’s deliberations”.

‘Extraordinary example of courage’

Ms Machado, 58, was lauded by the Nobel committee as “one of the most extraordinary examples of civilian courage in Latin America in recent times”.

Her candidacy for last year’s election was blocked by the regime but she backed Edmundo Gonzalez, the leader of another party.

Opposition groups organised hundreds of thousands of volunteers to observe voting, despite risks to their safety, and ensured tallies were recorded “before the regime could destroy ballots and lie about the outcome”, added the Nobel committee.

President Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, claimed a third term despite exit polls pointing to a decisive opposition win.

He said his re-election was a triumph of peace and stability and claimed the electoral system was transparent.

President Maduro attended President Putin's Victory Day in Moscow this year. Pic: AP
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President Maduro attended President Putin’s Victory Day in Moscow this year. Pic: AP

Ms Machado disputed the result and said Edmundo Gonzalez had recorded an “overwhelming” victory.

The country’s highest court upheld the result but the UN said it wasn’t impartial or independent.

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state at the time, said America had “serious concerns”, while the UK said it was “concerned by allegations of serious irregularities in the counting”.

Nobel said Ms Machado first stood up for free and fair elections more than 20 years ago, when she called for “ballots over bullets”, and had campaigned on issues such as judicial independence and human rights.

Trump could be contender next year despite ‘divisive’ policies

As the announcement about who would win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize grew closer, one voice rose above the rest. Donald Trump has made no bones about the fact he would like to win the prize.

More than that, he’s said repeatedly that he deserves to win the accolade for the seven conflicts he claims to have ended. Ahead of today’s announcement, the White House said he had received seven nominations.

But as is so often the case, the spin ignores the facts. The deadline for nominations for this year’s award was at the end of January.

That meant Donald Trump had just 11 days in office to prove he was deserving.

Love him or hate him, that’s a challenge for anyone. In terms of the nominations he did receive, many of them were announced after the deadline.

Unfortunately, under Nobel Peace Prize rules we will have to wait 50 years to officially find out if he was among the 338 nominees.

In his will, founder Alfred Nobel stated the winner should be “the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations and the abolition or reduction of standing armies and the formation and spreading of peace congresses”.

Trump’s critics point to the strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, the blowing up of “narco” boats in the Caribbean and even tariffs as doing more to sow division than unity.

His immigration raids and his deployment of National Guard troops onto some of the country’s streets have also been divisive domestically.

While Venezuela’s Maria Corina Machado scooped the 2025 award, all is not lost for the US president; if his 20-point peace plan helps lead to a lasting ceasefire he could well be in the running next year.

Read more from Sky News:
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The committee painted a bleak picture of Ms Machado’s home country, saying many in Venezuela – which has the world’s largest oil reserves – live in serious poverty after it went from a “relatively democratic and prosperous country to a brutal, authoritarian state”.

“The violent machinery of the state is directed against the country’s own citizens,” it said, noting about eight million people had left the country – many of them heading north to try to enter America.

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How two years of war have shattered the Gaza Strip

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How two years of war have shattered the Gaza Strip

As a possible ceasefire takes shape, Palestinians face the prospect of rebuilding their shattered enclave.

At least 67,194 people have been killed, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, the majority of them (53%) women, children and elderly people.

The war has left 4,900 people with permanent disabilities, including amputations, and has orphaned 58,556 children.

Altogether, one in ten Palestinians has been killed or injured since the war began following Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel.

The attack killed 1,195 people, including 725 civilians, according to Israeli officials. The IDF says that a further 466 Israeli soldiers have been killed during the subsequent conflict in Gaza.

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Israel says a ceasefire is expected to begin within 24 hours after its government ratifies the ceasefire deal tonight.

Swathes of Gaza have been reduced to rubble

More than 90% of Palestinians in Gaza have been displaced, many of them multiple times, following Israeli evacuation orders that now cover 85% of the Gaza Strip.

Few of them will have homes to return to, with aid groups estimating that 92% of homes have been destroyed.

“Despite our happiness, we cannot help but think of what is to come,” says Mohammad Al-Farra, in Khan Younis. “The areas we are going back to, or intending to return to, are uninhabitable.”

The destruction of Gaza is visible from space. The satellite images below show the city of Rafah, which has been almost totally razed over the past two years.

In just the first ten days of the war, 4% of buildings in Gaza were damaged or destroyed.

By May 2024 – seven months later – more than 50% of buildings had been damaged or destroyed. At the start of this month, it rose to 60% of buildings.

A joint report from the UN, EU and World Bank estimated that it would take years of rebuilding and more than $53 billion to repair the damage from the first year of war alone.

A surge in aid

Central to the promise of the ceasefire deal is that Israel will allow a surge of humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip.

The widespread destruction of homes has left 1.5 million Palestinians in need of emergency shelter items.

Many of these people are living in crowded tent camps along Gaza’s coast. That includes Al Mawasi, a sandy strip of coastline and agricultural land that Israel has designated a “humanitarian zone”.

Aid agencies report that families are being charged rent of up to 600 shekels (£138) for tent space, and over $2,000 (£1,500) for tents.

Israel has forbidden the entry of construction equipment since the war began and has periodically blocked the import of tents and tent poles.

Restrictions on the entry of food aid have created a famine in Gaza City, and mass hunger throughout the rest of the territory.

Data from Israeli border officials shows that the amount of food entering Gaza has frequently been below the “bare minimum” that the UN’s famine-review agency says is necessary to meet basic needs.

As a result, the number of deaths from malnutrition has skyrocketed in recent months.

To date, Gaza’s health ministry says, 461 people have died from malnutrition, including 157 children.

“Will Netanyahu abide this time?”

As talks of a ceasefire progressed, the Israeli assault on Gaza City continued.

Footage shared on Tuesday, the two-year anniversary of the war, showed smoke rising over the city following an airstrike.

A video posted on Wednesday, verified by Sky News, showed an Israeli tank destroying a building in the city’s northern suburbs.

Uncertainty still remains over the future of Gaza, with neither Israel nor Hamas agreeing in full to the peace plan presented by US president Donald Trump. So far, only the first stage has been agreed.

A previous ceasefire, agreed in January, collapsed after Israel refused to progress to the agreement’s second stage. With that in mind, many in Gaza are cautious about their hopes for the future.

“Maybe we trust Trump, but will Netanyahu abide this time?,” asks Aya, a 31-year old displaced Palestinian in Deir al Balah.

“He has always sabotaged everything and continued the war. I hope he ends it now.”

Additional reporting by Sam Doak, OSINT producer.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Trump’s Gaza deal may not go down well with everyone – but for now, it’s a beacon of optimism

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Trump's Gaza deal may not go down well with everyone - but for now, it's a beacon of optimism

When the peace deal came, it came quickly.

Rumours had been spreading over the course of the day, anticipation grew. A source told me that a deal would be done by Friday, another said perhaps by Thursday evening.

Israel and Hamas agree to peace deal – live updates

They were both wrong. Instead, it came much sooner, announced by Donald Trump on his own social media channel. Without being anywhere near the talks in Egypt, the president was the dominant figure.

Few will argue that he deserves the credit for driving this agreement. We can probably see the origins of all this in Israel’s decision to try to kill the Hamas leadership in Doha.

The attack failed, and the White House was annoyed.

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‘Hostages coming back,’ Trump tells families

Arab states started to express themselves to Trump more successfully, arguing that it was time for him to rein in Benjamin Netanyahu and bring an end to the war.

They repeated the call at a meeting during the UN General Assembly, which seems to have landed. When the president later met Netanyahu, the 20-point plan was born, which led to this fresh peace agreement.

Donald Trump holds a note saying a deal is 'very close'. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump holds a note saying a deal is ‘very close’. Pic: Reuters

Does it cover everything? Absolutely not. We don’t know who will run Gaza in the future, for a start, which is a pretty yawning hole when you consider that Gaza’s fresh start is imminent.

We don’t know what will happen to Hamas, or to its weapons, or really how Israel will withdraw from the Strip.

But these talks have always been fuelled by optimism, and by the sense that if you could stop the fighting and get the hostages home, then everything else might just fall into place.

Reaction to the peace deal in Tel Aviv from Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is being held hostage. Pic: Reuters
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Reaction to the peace deal in Tel Aviv from Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is being held hostage. Pic: Reuters

In order to agree to this, Hamas must surely have been given strong assurances that, even at some level, its demands for Palestinian self-determination would bear fruit. Otherwise, why would the group have given up their one trump card – the 48 hostages?

Once they have gone, Hamas has no leverage at all. It has precious few friends among the countries sitting around the negotiating table, and it is a massively depleted fighting force.

So to give up that power, I can only assume that Khalil al-Hayya, the de facto Hamas leader, got a cast-iron guarantee of… something.

Arab states will greet this agreement with joy. Some of that is to do with empathy for the Palestinians in Gaza, where 67,000 people have been killed and more than 10% of the population has become a casualty of war.

An Israeli soldier stands next to the parcels of humanitarian aid awaiting to be transferred into Gaza in July. File pic: Reuters
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An Israeli soldier stands next to the parcels of humanitarian aid awaiting to be transferred into Gaza in July. File pic: Reuters

But they will also welcome a path to stability, where there is less fear of spillover from the Gaza conflict and more confidence about the region’s economic and political unity.

Trump’s worldview – that everything comes down to business and deal-making – is welcomed by some of these leaders as a smart way of seeing diplomacy.

Jared Kushner has plenty of friends among these nations, and his input was important.

Read more about 7 October:
‘It is trauma’: Two lives torn apart
‘Instead of getting married, they got buried together’

For many Israelis, this comes down to a few crucial things. Firstly, the hostages are coming home. It is hard to overstate just how embedded that cause is to Israeli society.

The return of all 48, living and dead, will be a truly profound moment for this nation.

Secondly, their soldiers will no longer be fighting a war that, even within the higher echelons of the military, is believed to be drifting and purposeless.

Thirdly, there is growing empathy for the plight of the Gazans, which is tied to a fourth point – a realisation that Israel’s reputation on the world stage has been desperately tarnished.

Some will object to this deal and say that it is too weak; that it lets Hamas off the hook and fails to punish them for the atrocities of 7 October.

It is an accusation that will be levelled by far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition government. It could even collapse the administration.

But for most people, in Israel, Gaza, across the Middle East and around the world, it is a moment of relief. Last week, I was in Gaza, and the destruction was absolutely devastating to witness.

Whatever the compromises, the idea that the war has stopped is, for the moment at least, a beacon of optimism.

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