How does Russia’s scaled-back 2023 Victory Day parade compare to previous years?
Soldiers marching through the streets of Moscow, armoured vehicles rolling across Red Square and a rallying cry from Vladimir Putin talking of the West’s “real war”.
On the surface, Russia’s Victory Day parade may have seemed like business as usual – despite reports beforehand that it was set to be scaled back over security fears.
But the numbers tell a different story.
With just over 50 vehicles on display, the usually-impressive procession was just a quarter of its usual size in terms of tanks, transporters and missile carriers.
There was also no traditional flyover from Russia’s airforce.
Instead, this year’s parade was led through Red Square by a single tank – a far cry from the usual display of military might often displayed on Victory Day.
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A single Second World War era tank leads Russia’s 2023 Victory Day parade
Vehicles moving towards Red Square for 2023’s Victory Day parade. Pic: AP
As is the tradition on the day that marks Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany, that tank was a Second World War-era T-34-85 flying the Soviet Red Flag.
But in previous years, the T-34-85 would have been followed by a large column of modern-day fighting vehicles, including Russia’s prized T-14 Armata and T-90 tanks.
Not this year – a year in which Russia has suffered significant losses following its February 2022 invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.
MSTA-S self-propelled howitzers during the 2019 Victory Day parade
Russian T-72B3M main battle tanks during Victory Day in 2021
Russian Buk-M3 missile systems on Victory Day in 2022
Analysts believe just 51 vehicles were involved in the 2023 procession.
That is a quarter of the 200 pieces of military hardware that rolled through the streets of Moscow in 2020 when Russia marked the 75th anniversary of the end of the Second World War.
Even last year – just months after Russia invaded Ukraine – the number of vehicles involved was as high as 131 vehicles – around the same as the pre-COVID 2019 event.
According to one independent analyst, Oliver Alexander, this year’s parade is the first year that he has not seen an official graphic detailing the procession.
However, using Russia’s carefully curated broadcast of the procession, he was able to spot a total of 51 vehicles.
Russia’s only tank on display on Victory Day in 2023, at the head of the procession. Pic: AP
Russian BMP-2M, BMP-3 and BMP Kurganets infantry fighting vehicles on Victory Day in 2022
Among them were several Tigr-Ms – a 4×4 infantry mobility vehicle used to move troops and carry out patrols.
Mr Alexander also counted 10 Remdiesel Z-STS Akhmat MRAPs – armoured vehicles which he said were only used by forces from Chechnya.
Missile launchers and air defence units were also included in the parade – as is tradition.
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However, according to Mr Alexander, there were no short-range air defences and no Russian Airborne Forces (also known as VDV), who were heavily involved in the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The traditional Victory Day flyover – involving Russia’s Su-30SM, Su-34 and Su-35S combat aircraft flying in formation – was also cancelled in advance.
Su-30SM, Su-34 and Su-35S combat aircraft fly in formation for the 2020 Victory Day flyover
One section of the procession that did not appear to change however is the appearance of three RS-24 YARS – Russia’s thermonuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Three of the large missile units were on display this year, as they were in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
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This is the highest stakes diplomacy via social media.
The American president just posted on his Truth Social platform: “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding.
“He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers.
“Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
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It was followed minutes later by “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
In real-time, we are witnessing Donald Trump’s extreme version of maximum pressure diplomacy.
He’d probably call it the ‘art of the deal’, but bunker busters are the tool, and it comes with such huge consequences, intended and unintended, known and unknown.
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Nuclear sites targeted in Iran
There is intentional ambiguity in the president’s messaging. His assumption is that he can apply his ‘art of the deal’ strategy to a deeply ideological geopolitical challenge.
It’s all playing out publicly. Overnight, the New York Times, via two of its best-sourced reporters, had been told that Mr Trump is weighing whether to use B-2 aircraft to drop bunker-busting bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, Axios was reporting that a meeting is possible between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.
The reporting came just as Mr Trump warned “everyone in Tehran to evacuate”. The nuclear sites being threatened with bunker busters are not in Tehran, but Trump’s words are designed to stoke tension, to confuse and to apply intense pressure.
His actions are too. He left the G7 in Canada early and asked his teams to gather in the White House Situation Room.
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This is a game of smoke, mirrors, brinkmanship and – maybe – bluff. In Tehran, what’s left of the leadership is watching and reading closely as they consider what’s next.
Maybe the Supreme Leader and his regime’s days are numbered. Things remain very unpredictable.
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From history, though, regime change, even when it comes with a plan – and there is certainly not one here, spells civil war and from that comes a refugee crisis.
These are truly tense and chaotic times.
World
Ukraine war: 14 killed as Russian missile and drone attacks strike Kyiv – including American citizen
Russian missile and drone attacks have killed 14 people in Kyiv overnight, according to Ukrainian officials.
A 62-year-old US citizen who suffered shrapnel wounds is among the dead.
At least 99 others were wounded in strikes that hollowed out a residential building and destroyed dozens of apartments.
Pic: AP
Emergency workers were at the scene to rescue people from under the rubble.
Images show a firefighter was among those hurt, with injured residents evacuated from their homes.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the attack as “one of the most terrifying attacks on Kyiv” – and said Russian forces had fired 440 drones and 32 missiles as civilians slept in their homes.
“[Putin] wants the war to go on,” he said. “It is troubling when the powerful of this world turn a blind eye to it.”
Pic: AP
Ukraine’s interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, said 27 locations across the capital have been hit – including educational institutions and critical infrastructure.
He claimed the attack, in the early hours of Tuesday morning, was one of the largest on the capital since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
Drones swarmed over the city, with an air raid alert remaining in force for seven hours.
One person was killed and 17 others injured as a result of separate Russian drone strikes in the port city of Odesa.
Pic: Reuters
It comes as the G7 summit in Canada continues, which Ukraine’s leader is expected to attend.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy was due to hold talks with Donald Trump – but the president has announced he is unexpectedly returning to Washington because of tensions in the Middle East.
Ukraine’s foreign minister says Moscow’s decision to attack Kyiv during the summit is a signal of disrespect to the US.
Moscow has launched a record number of drones and missiles in recent weeks, and says the attacks are in retaliation for a Ukrainian operation that targeted warplanes in airbases deep within Russian territory.
Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko says fires broke out in two of the city’s districts as a result of debris from drones shot down by the nation’s air defences.
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Pic: AP
On X, Ukraine’s foreign ministry wrote: “Russia’s campaign of terror against civilians continues. Its war against Ukraine escalates with increased brutality.
“The only way to stop Russia is tighter pressure – through sanctions, more defence support for Ukraine, and limiting Russia’s ability to keep sowing war.”
Olena Lapyshnak, who lived in one of the destroyed buildings, said: “It’s horrible, it’s scary, in one moment there is no life. I can only curse the Russians, that’s all I can say. They shouldn’t exist in this world.”
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