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The Bank of England is set to impose another interest rate hike on the UK economy today – the 12th consecutive increase in its battle to curb rampant inflation.

Both financial markets and economists widely expect a 0.25 percentage point rise to 4.5%.

The Bank Rate had stood at 0.1% in December 2021 before the tightening cycle began to tackle the pace of price rises, which were initially caused by economies getting back in gear after the COVID pandemic.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the following February then exacerbated the inflation problem, with soaring energy costs piling additional misery on Western nations.

Those considerable extra costs, faced by households and businesses alike, are still filtering through in the form of stubborn inflation for many goods and services despite wholesale energy costs easing in recent months.

The latest official figures showed the headline consumer prices index (CPI) measure at 10.1% – fed by the highest grocery inflation for 45 years.

The Bank is also likely concerned that higher-than-expected wage increases will embed inflation in the economy over the months ahead.

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But there is good news on the CPI number just around the corner.

The inflation data for April is set to strip out the effects of the leap in household energy bills seen in April 2022 while the cost of fuel, which was also on the march at that time, is now well down on the levels seen in the same month a year ago.

Some economists predict a CPI number for April below 8% just because of the energy impact alone.

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‘Greedflation’ explored: Are businesses making inflation worse?

This does not mean that prices are necessarily coming down and the cost of living crisis is over.

It is just that the contributions to inflation from the energy components are not so severe when it comes to measuring the pace of price increases over a 12-month period.

Raising Bank Rate – the Bank of England’s base interest rate – is a tool to reduce demand in the economy.

The rises are intended to cool activity and help inflation ease back towards the Bank’s 2% target.

But there are consequences.

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April: Another interest rate rise ‘almost a done deal’

Chief among them is the impact on borrowers, especially households on variable mortgage deals or those who have had to secure a new fixed deal over the past year.

According to research by TotallyMoney and Moneycomms, a further quarter-point interest rate rise will add £26 to monthly repayments for variable customers on the average UK property costing £270,708 with a 75% loan-to-value ratio.

The Bank rate increases, they said, meant the same customers were now facing forking out an extra £482 per month compared to pre-December 2021.

The Bank is mindful of the impact its actions are imposing on millions of households that are already struggling under the weight of meaty bills.

With that in mind, the remarks contained in the minutes of the Bank’s meeting and wider monetary policy report, all released at midday, will be crucial to understanding the likely way forward for borrowing costs.

The Bank is formally expected to raise its forecasts for economic growth as its staff no longer expect a recession this year.

But the outlook for Bank rate is a bit more clouded as inflation has proved more stubborn to bring down.

Bank governor Andrew Bailey’s comments to reporters will be especially closely watched for signs the rate-setting committee is edging towards a pause in its rate hikes.

The prospect of an end to the tightening will largely depend on the data ahead.

Andrew Hagger, personal finance expert at Moneycomms.co.uk, said: “Consumers and businesses will be praying that this is the last rate hike…. they will have their fingers crossed that inflation numbers will fall sharply before the next MPC (monetary policy committee) rate decision on 22 June.

“Savers may be enjoying the best returns on cash savings for more than a decade but those with borrowing have been pushed to the brink by the financial impact of a dozen consecutive rate hikes.”

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‘We need help’: Workers say shoplifting is ‘out of control’ as brazen thefts explode

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'We need help': Workers say shoplifting is 'out of control' as brazen thefts explode

A woman casually walks into a convenience store and starts filling a bread crate with goods from one of the aisles.

A shop assistant tries to stop her, but she shrugs him off, undeterred. With the crate now full of items, she leaves without paying.

It is a scenario that is played out day in and day out across Britain, as retailers warn the surge in shoplifting is now “out of control”.

A Nisa supermarket storefront
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Four in five store owners tell Sky News they’ve experienced shoplifting in the last week.

I’m sitting in the security office of a busy city centre shop and I’m watching as a schoolboy walks in and helps himself to a sandwich, stuffing it into his jacket.

Watching with me is shop worker Anton Mavroianu who positions himself by the main entrance waiting for the youngster to leave.

When the boy does leave, Anton demands the item back. Instead of being frozen with fear that he’s been caught, the boy laughs and walks off.

“All we can do is try to stop them,” Anton tells me. “But this is just another day for us.”

Anton Mavroianu
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Anton Mavroianu said he has been threatened with a knife while trying to stop shoplifters

A few weeks earlier, when Anton tried to stop a shoplifter who had stolen from the store, the man pulled out a knife and tried to attack him.

This terrifying incident is an example of the very real threat posed to shop workers as they try to stem the tide of brazen thefts.

Shoplifting offences recorded by police in England and Wales have risen to the highest level in 20 years.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) also reports that theft-related losses cost the retail sector millions each year, adding strain to an industry already grappling with post-pandemic recovery and economic uncertainty.

For small businesses, which lack the resources of larger chains, persistent theft can threaten their very survival.

Read more on shoplifting:
Why legion of shoplifters is causing an explosion in crime
Theft and fraud costs Co-op nearly £40m in just 6 months

CCTV of a Nisa supermarket

Ricky Dougall owns a chain of convenience stores and says shoplifting cost his business around £100,000 last year.

“Shoplifting is a huge problem and it is what stops us from growing the business.

“People come in and help themselves like they own the place and when you call the police, most of the time, they don’t turn up.”

Supermarket owner Ricky Dougall - who says shoplifting cost his business around £100,000 last year
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Ricky Dougall said part of the problem is how shoplifting is classified during sentencing

Mr Dougall says part of the problem is how this type of crime is classified.

Sentencing guidelines for thefts of under £200, so-called “low level shoplifting”, were relaxed in 2016. That is being blamed for the surge in cases.

An exclusive Sky News and Association of Convenience Stores survey shows that 80% of shopkeepers surveyed had an incident of retail crime in the past week.

The poll also found 94% of shopkeepers say that in their experience, shoplifting has got worse over the last year, with 83% not confident that the police will take action against the perpetrators of retail crime on their premises.

Paul Cheema from the Association of Convenience Stores says retailers are looking to Government to support them.

“I would say officials do not give a s*** about us retailers,” he tells me. “The losses are too big and I don’t think we can sustain that anymore.

“I would urge Keir Starmer to come and meet us and see up close the challenges that we are facing.”

Retailers have responded by investing heavily in security measures, from advanced surveillance systems to hiring more security staff.

But these investments come at a cost, often passed down to consumers through higher prices.

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I get chatting to Matt Roberts, head of retail in the store I am in. He worries about shoplifting, but he worries about the staff more.

“I would imagine they dread coming to work because they’re always on tenterhooks wondering whether something is going to happen today, whether they are going to have to try and confront someone.

“It’s a horrible feeling. It’s out of control and we need help.”

Matt Roberts, head of retail at a Nisa supermarket
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Matt Roberts says he is concerned for his staff, who have to confront shoplifters

The government has acknowledged the urgency of the issue. Home Secretary-led discussions with retail associations and law enforcement are underway to craft a comprehensive strategy.

In the King’s Speech, the government outlined details of a Crime and Policing Bill, which promised to “introduce stronger measures to tackle low level shoplifting”, as well as introducing a separate offence for assaulting a shop worker.

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Two-thirds of teens living with fear of violence, charity warns

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Two-thirds of teens living with fear of violence, charity warns

Children do not feel safe, a charity has warned, as a survey finds two-thirds of teens in England and Wales have a fear of violence.

The charity, which surveyed 10,000 children aged 13-17, found that 20% of teenagers have been victims of violence in the past 12 months.

“I think what shocked me most is how this is a problem that affects all of our children,” said Jon Yates, CEO of the Youth Endowment Fund.

“We found that two-thirds of all teenage children are afraid. And that fear is pretty real for a lot of them.”

He said it’s a fear so palpable that many teenage children are changing their patterns of behaviour, or have had it influence their daily decisions.

One third of teenage children – 33% – reported avoiding areas, whilst around 27% alter their travel routes or avoid public transport altogether to stay safe.

More worryingly, however, some say the fear of violence has led to mental health challenges, with 22% reporting difficulties sleeping, reduced appetite and concentrating in school.

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Weapon carrying is also a concern for the charity, especially among vulnerable groups.

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From September: Young gangs of Wolverhampton

In England and Wales, 5% of all 13-17 year olds reported carrying a weapon in the past year, but that figure jumps to 21% for those suspended from school and 36% for children who have been excluded from school.

But Mr Yates said “shockingly” only 12% of children who repeatedly commit violence get any sort of support.

“That’s madness,” he said.

Jay*, 23, from Birmingham said depending on your environment, sometimes violence is hard to avoid.

“I’ve had friends be shot, I’ve got friends who have been stabbed, I had a friend die last month to be fair,” Jay told Sky News.

He said it is “damaging” because you never really get the opportunity to “heal”. He is now being supported by the charity Project Lifeline, but says before then it was difficult to find any hope.

“If you don’t have hope,” Jay added, “you can’t really get anywhere. It’s about finding that hope.”

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Mark Rodney, CEO of Lifeline Project, mentors at-risk young children and said he has learned that “not only the perpetrator carries the knife, the victim sometimes carries the knife”.

“And not only the perpetrator does the killing,” he added. “The victim sometimes does the killing, because that’s where we’re at.”

He said far too many families ask themselves “is my child safe going to school or coming home from school?” and adds the government must “actually start addressing people’s concerns”.

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From September: Home Sec vows to halve knife crime

The report also found that in 93% of cases where teenage children repeatedly harm others, adults intervene with punishments such as school discipline or police involvement.

However, only 12% of these children are offered support aimed at addressing the root causes of violence and preventing further harm.

Mr Yates said: “They go to school, they do something violent. They get excluded.”

He added: “We need to be much better at saying, ‘we’re not going to lose that child. We’re going to keep providing support to them. We’re going to keep providing a mentor’.

“Instead, we let them fall through the cracks”.

A government spokesperson said: “Halving knife crime in a decade is a clear mission this government has set out.

“It is vital to protect vulnerable young people who are too often the victims or perpetrators of this crime.”

*names have been changed

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Jeremy Clarkson says government should ‘back down’ on farmers’ inheritance tax as he joins protest

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