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It is saying something that the Bank of England has just delivered its biggest economic upgrade in the history of the Monetary Policy Committee, yet the UK is still effectively flatlining.

But that is the paradox facing the economy at the moment.

On the one hand, the outlook for the country as a whole is considerably rosier than it was only a few months ago.

If you follow these forecasts you may recall that late last year the Bank said that the UK economy might well face the longest recession in modern history.

Britons face extra £482 per month on mortgage since 2021 – latest updates

But now it has dramatically changed its outlook.

Now it believes that the economy will not shrink at all in any of the coming quarters.

A few months ago it suggested that the UK economy wouldn’t regain its pre-pandemic size for many years; now it believes it will hit that watershed at the end of this year.

Not long ago it thought the unemployment rate would rise above 6 per cent by 2025; now it thinks it will be below 4 per cent.

This is very good news.

The problem is that it’s hard to revel all that much in comparative good news when you look at the absolute numbers.

Good news needs to be put in perspective

Let’s put things into perspective.

Up until a few years ago “trend growth” was above 2 per cent. In other words, in a “normal” year you might expect the economy to grow by maybe 2-2.5 per cent.

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Bank of England interest rate increased 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%
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Now look at the latest Bank forecasts: growth of a quarter percentage point this year, three-quarters of a percentage point next year, and the same again in 2025.

This is very weak growth.

Now consider what’s happening beneath the surface.

Every household in the country is facing the pain of rising prices, but for some, the impact is worse than for others.

Some especially higher-income households, have considerable savings built up during the pandemic.

Many older households have already paid off their mortgages, to the extent that the proportion of homes without mortgages is higher than ever before.

Yet for those households who do not benefit from these financial cushions, life is tough – and getting tougher.

Why there is more pain to come

Only around a third of the eventual “pain” of higher interest rates has yet been felt, because most mortgage payers have yet to refix their loans onto higher rates.

But that will happen for millions in the coming months.

Moreover, one of the other key changes in the Bank’s forecasts today is that food inflation is likely to be considerably higher in the coming years than previously expected.

While food producers’ costs are beginning to come down, the prices we pay are still rising fast.

Some have characterised this as “greedflation” but economists say these companies’ margins remain compressed.

Even so, even after adjusting for the Bank’s new, less gloomy forecasts, it’s hard to envisage a return of the feelgood factor in the coming months.

The economy is not doing as badly as previously thought – this is a cause for reassurance.

But for most households, the pressures from rising living costs are still intensifying rather than abating.

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‘We need help’: Workers say shoplifting is ‘out of control’ as brazen thefts explode

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'We need help': Workers say shoplifting is 'out of control' as brazen thefts explode

A woman casually walks into a convenience store and starts filling a bread crate with goods from one of the aisles.

A shop assistant tries to stop her, but she shrugs him off, undeterred. With the crate now full of items, she leaves without paying.

It is a scenario that is played out day in and day out across Britain, as retailers warn the surge in shoplifting is now “out of control”.

A Nisa supermarket storefront
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Four in five store owners tell Sky News they’ve experienced shoplifting in the last week.

I’m sitting in the security office of a busy city centre shop and I’m watching as a schoolboy walks in and helps himself to a sandwich, stuffing it into his jacket.

Watching with me is shop worker Anton Mavroianu who positions himself by the main entrance waiting for the youngster to leave.

When the boy does leave, Anton demands the item back. Instead of being frozen with fear that he’s been caught, the boy laughs and walks off.

“All we can do is try to stop them,” Anton tells me. “But this is just another day for us.”

Anton Mavroianu
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Anton Mavroianu said he has been threatened with a knife while trying to stop shoplifters

A few weeks earlier, when Anton tried to stop a shoplifter who had stolen from the store, the man pulled out a knife and tried to attack him.

This terrifying incident is an example of the very real threat posed to shop workers as they try to stem the tide of brazen thefts.

Shoplifting offences recorded by police in England and Wales have risen to the highest level in 20 years.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) also reports that theft-related losses cost the retail sector millions each year, adding strain to an industry already grappling with post-pandemic recovery and economic uncertainty.

For small businesses, which lack the resources of larger chains, persistent theft can threaten their very survival.

Read more on shoplifting:
Why legion of shoplifters is causing an explosion in crime
Theft and fraud costs Co-op nearly £40m in just 6 months

CCTV of a Nisa supermarket

Ricky Dougall owns a chain of convenience stores and says shoplifting cost his business around £100,000 last year.

“Shoplifting is a huge problem and it is what stops us from growing the business.

“People come in and help themselves like they own the place and when you call the police, most of the time, they don’t turn up.”

Supermarket owner Ricky Dougall - who says shoplifting cost his business around £100,000 last year
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Ricky Dougall said part of the problem is how shoplifting is classified during sentencing

Mr Dougall says part of the problem is how this type of crime is classified.

Sentencing guidelines for thefts of under £200, so-called “low level shoplifting”, were relaxed in 2016. That is being blamed for the surge in cases.

An exclusive Sky News and Association of Convenience Stores survey shows that 80% of shopkeepers surveyed had an incident of retail crime in the past week.

The poll also found 94% of shopkeepers say that in their experience, shoplifting has got worse over the last year, with 83% not confident that the police will take action against the perpetrators of retail crime on their premises.

Paul Cheema from the Association of Convenience Stores says retailers are looking to Government to support them.

“I would say officials do not give a s*** about us retailers,” he tells me. “The losses are too big and I don’t think we can sustain that anymore.

“I would urge Keir Starmer to come and meet us and see up close the challenges that we are facing.”

Retailers have responded by investing heavily in security measures, from advanced surveillance systems to hiring more security staff.

But these investments come at a cost, often passed down to consumers through higher prices.

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I get chatting to Matt Roberts, head of retail in the store I am in. He worries about shoplifting, but he worries about the staff more.

“I would imagine they dread coming to work because they’re always on tenterhooks wondering whether something is going to happen today, whether they are going to have to try and confront someone.

“It’s a horrible feeling. It’s out of control and we need help.”

Matt Roberts, head of retail at a Nisa supermarket
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Matt Roberts says he is concerned for his staff, who have to confront shoplifters

The government has acknowledged the urgency of the issue. Home Secretary-led discussions with retail associations and law enforcement are underway to craft a comprehensive strategy.

In the King’s Speech, the government outlined details of a Crime and Policing Bill, which promised to “introduce stronger measures to tackle low level shoplifting”, as well as introducing a separate offence for assaulting a shop worker.

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Two-thirds of teens living with fear of violence, charity warns

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Two-thirds of teens living with fear of violence, charity warns

Children do not feel safe, a charity has warned, as a survey finds two-thirds of teens in England and Wales have a fear of violence.

The charity, which surveyed 10,000 children aged 13-17, found that 20% of teenagers have been victims of violence in the past 12 months.

“I think what shocked me most is how this is a problem that affects all of our children,” said Jon Yates, CEO of the Youth Endowment Fund.

“We found that two-thirds of all teenage children are afraid. And that fear is pretty real for a lot of them.”

He said it’s a fear so palpable that many teenage children are changing their patterns of behaviour, or have had it influence their daily decisions.

One third of teenage children – 33% – reported avoiding areas, whilst around 27% alter their travel routes or avoid public transport altogether to stay safe.

More worryingly, however, some say the fear of violence has led to mental health challenges, with 22% reporting difficulties sleeping, reduced appetite and concentrating in school.

More on Children

Weapon carrying is also a concern for the charity, especially among vulnerable groups.

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From September: Young gangs of Wolverhampton

In England and Wales, 5% of all 13-17 year olds reported carrying a weapon in the past year, but that figure jumps to 21% for those suspended from school and 36% for children who have been excluded from school.

But Mr Yates said “shockingly” only 12% of children who repeatedly commit violence get any sort of support.

“That’s madness,” he said.

Jay*, 23, from Birmingham said depending on your environment, sometimes violence is hard to avoid.

“I’ve had friends be shot, I’ve got friends who have been stabbed, I had a friend die last month to be fair,” Jay told Sky News.

He said it is “damaging” because you never really get the opportunity to “heal”. He is now being supported by the charity Project Lifeline, but says before then it was difficult to find any hope.

“If you don’t have hope,” Jay added, “you can’t really get anywhere. It’s about finding that hope.”

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Mark Rodney, CEO of Lifeline Project, mentors at-risk young children and said he has learned that “not only the perpetrator carries the knife, the victim sometimes carries the knife”.

“And not only the perpetrator does the killing,” he added. “The victim sometimes does the killing, because that’s where we’re at.”

He said far too many families ask themselves “is my child safe going to school or coming home from school?” and adds the government must “actually start addressing people’s concerns”.

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From September: Home Sec vows to halve knife crime

The report also found that in 93% of cases where teenage children repeatedly harm others, adults intervene with punishments such as school discipline or police involvement.

However, only 12% of these children are offered support aimed at addressing the root causes of violence and preventing further harm.

Mr Yates said: “They go to school, they do something violent. They get excluded.”

He added: “We need to be much better at saying, ‘we’re not going to lose that child. We’re going to keep providing support to them. We’re going to keep providing a mentor’.

“Instead, we let them fall through the cracks”.

A government spokesperson said: “Halving knife crime in a decade is a clear mission this government has set out.

“It is vital to protect vulnerable young people who are too often the victims or perpetrators of this crime.”

*names have been changed

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Jeremy Clarkson says government should ‘back down’ on farmers’ inheritance tax as he joins protest

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