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It is saying something that the Bank of England has just delivered its biggest economic upgrade in the history of the Monetary Policy Committee, yet the UK is still effectively flatlining.

But that is the paradox facing the economy at the moment.

On the one hand, the outlook for the country as a whole is considerably rosier than it was only a few months ago.

If you follow these forecasts you may recall that late last year the Bank said that the UK economy might well face the longest recession in modern history.

Britons face extra £482 per month on mortgage since 2021 – latest updates

But now it has dramatically changed its outlook.

Now it believes that the economy will not shrink at all in any of the coming quarters.

A few months ago it suggested that the UK economy wouldn’t regain its pre-pandemic size for many years; now it believes it will hit that watershed at the end of this year.

Not long ago it thought the unemployment rate would rise above 6 per cent by 2025; now it thinks it will be below 4 per cent.

This is very good news.

The problem is that it’s hard to revel all that much in comparative good news when you look at the absolute numbers.

Good news needs to be put in perspective

Let’s put things into perspective.

Up until a few years ago “trend growth” was above 2 per cent. In other words, in a “normal” year you might expect the economy to grow by maybe 2-2.5 per cent.

Read more:
Bank of England interest rate increased 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%
‘Greedflation’ explored: Are businesses making inflation worse through excessive profits?

Now look at the latest Bank forecasts: growth of a quarter percentage point this year, three-quarters of a percentage point next year, and the same again in 2025.

This is very weak growth.

Now consider what’s happening beneath the surface.

Every household in the country is facing the pain of rising prices, but for some, the impact is worse than for others.

Some especially higher-income households, have considerable savings built up during the pandemic.

Many older households have already paid off their mortgages, to the extent that the proportion of homes without mortgages is higher than ever before.

Yet for those households who do not benefit from these financial cushions, life is tough – and getting tougher.

Why there is more pain to come

Only around a third of the eventual “pain” of higher interest rates has yet been felt, because most mortgage payers have yet to refix their loans onto higher rates.

But that will happen for millions in the coming months.

Moreover, one of the other key changes in the Bank’s forecasts today is that food inflation is likely to be considerably higher in the coming years than previously expected.

While food producers’ costs are beginning to come down, the prices we pay are still rising fast.

Some have characterised this as “greedflation” but economists say these companies’ margins remain compressed.

Even so, even after adjusting for the Bank’s new, less gloomy forecasts, it’s hard to envisage a return of the feelgood factor in the coming months.

The economy is not doing as badly as previously thought – this is a cause for reassurance.

But for most households, the pressures from rising living costs are still intensifying rather than abating.

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Fireball at Southend Airport after small plane crashes

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Fireball at Southend Airport after small plane crashes

A small plane has crashed at Southend Airport in Essex.

Essex Police said it was at the scene of a “serious incident”.

Images posted online showed huge flames and a large cloud of black smoke, with one witness saying they saw a “fireball”.

A police statement said: “We were alerted shortly before 4pm to reports of a collision involving one 12-metre plane.

“We are working with all emergency services at the scene now and that work will be ongoing for several hours.

“We would please ask the public to avoid this area where possible while this work continues.”

Fireball after plane crash at Southend Airport. Pic: Ben G
Image:
A huge fireball near the airport. Pic: Ben G

It has been reported that the plane involved in the incident is a Beech B200 Super King Air.

According to flight-tracking service Flightradar, it took off at 3.48pm and was bound for Lelystad, a city in the Netherlands.

One man, who was at Southend Airport with his family around the time of the incident, said the aircraft “crashed headfirst into the ground”.

John Johnson said: “About three or four seconds after taking off, it started to bank heavily to its left, and then within a few seconds of that happening, it more or less inverted and crashed.

“There was a big fireball. Obviously, everybody was in shock in terms of witnessing it. All the kids saw it and the families saw it.”

Mr Johnson added that he phoned 999 to report the crash.

Southend Airport said the incident involved “a general aviation aircraft”.

Four flights scheduled to take off from Southend this afternoon were cancelled, according to its website.

Flightradar data shows two planes that had been due to land at Southend were diverted to nearby airports London Gatwick and London Stansted.

Smoke rising near Southend airport. Pic: UKNIP
Image:
Plumes of black smoke. Pic: UKNIP

Essex County Fire and Rescue Service said four crews, along with off-road vehicles, have attended the scene.

Four ambulances and four hazardous area response team vehicles are also at the airport, as well as an air ambulance, the East of England Ambulance Service said.

Its statement described the incident as “still developing”.

Fire engines at the scene at Southend Airport
Image:
Fire engines at the airport

David Burton-Sampson, the MP for Southend West and Leigh, posted on social media: “I am aware of an incident at Southend Airport. Please keep away and allow the emergency services to do their work.

“My thoughts are with everyone involved.”

Local councillor Matt Dent said on X: “At present all I know is that a small plane has crashed at the airport. My thoughts are with all those involved, and with the emergency services currently responding to the incident.”

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

Please refresh the page for the latest version.

You can receive breaking news alerts on a smartphone or tablet via the Sky News app. You can also follow us on WhatsApp and subscribe to our YouTube channel to keep up with the latest news.

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Heidi Alexander says ‘fairness’ will be government’s ‘guiding principle’ when it comes to taxes at next budget

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Heidi Alexander says 'fairness' will be government's 'guiding principle' when it comes to taxes at next budget

Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.

Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.

Politics Hub: Catch up on the latest

Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.

Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.

“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”

Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.

“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”

Read more:
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Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”

He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.

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Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France

Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.

Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.

Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.

With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.

The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.

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Justice system ‘frustrating’, Met Police chief says – as he admits London’s ‘shameful’ racism challenge

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Justice system 'frustrating', Met Police chief says - as he admits London's 'shameful' racism challenge

It is “shameful” that black boys growing up in London are “far more likely” to die than white boys, Metropolitan Police chief Sir Mark Rowley has told Sky News.

In a wide-ranging interview with Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, the commissioner said that relations with minority communities are “difficult for us”, while also speaking about the state of the justice system and the size of the police force.

Sir Mark, who came out of retirement to become head of the UK’s largest police force in 2022, said: “We can’t pretend otherwise that we’ve got a history between policing and black communities where policing has got a lot wrong.

“And we get a lot more right today, but we do still make mistakes. That’s not in doubt. I’m being as relentless in that as it can be.”

He said the “vast majority” of the force are “good people”.

However, he added: “But that legacy, combined with the tragedy that some of this crime falls most heavily in black communities, that creates a real problem because the legacy creates concern.”

Sir Mark, who also leads the UK’s counter-terrorism policing, said black boys growing up in London “are far more likely to be dead by the time they’re 18” than white boys.

“That’s, I think, shameful for the city,” he admitted.

“The challenge for us is, as we reach in to tackle those issues, that confrontation that comes from that reaching in, whether it’s stop and search on the streets or the sort of operations you seek.

“The danger is that’s landing in an environment with less trust.

“And that makes it even harder. But the people who win out of that [are] all of the criminals.”

Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley said racism is still an issue in the force
Image:
Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley

The commissioner added: “I’m so determined to find a way to get past this because if policing in black communities can find a way to confront these issues, together we can give black boys growing up in London equal life chances to white boys, which is not what we’re seeing at the moment.

“And it’s not simply about policing, is it?”

Sir Mark said: “I think black boys are several times more likely to be excluded from school, for example, than white boys.

“And there are multiple issues layered on top of each other that feed into disproportionality.”

‘We’re stretched, but there’s hope and determination’

Sir Mark said the Met is a “stretched service” but people who call 999 can expect an officer to attend.

“If you are in the middle of a crisis and something awful is happening and you dial 999, officers will get there really quickly,” Sir Mark said.

“I don’t pretend we’re not a stretched service.

“We are smaller than I think we ought to be, but I don’t want to give a sort of message of a lack of hope or a lack of determination.”

“I’ve seen the mayor and the home secretary fighting hard for police resourcing,” he added.

“It’s not what I’d want it to be, but it’s better than it might be without their efforts.”

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How police tracked and chased suspected phone thief

‘Close to broken’ justice system facing ‘awful’ delays

Sir Mark said the criminal justice system was “close to broken” and can be “frustrating” for police officers.

“The thing that is frustrating is that the system – and no system can be perfect – but when the system hasn’t managed to turn that person’s life around and get them on the straight and narrow, and it just becomes a revolving door,” he said.

“When that happens, of course that’s frustrating for officers.

“So the more successful prisons and probation can be in terms of getting people onto a law-abiding life from the path they’re on, the better.

“But that is a real challenge. I mean, we’re talking just after Sir Brian Leveson put his report out about the close-to-broken criminal justice system.

“And it’s absolutely vital that those repairs and reforms that he’s talking about happen really quickly, because the system is now so stressed.”

Giving an example, the police commissioner went on: “We’ve got Snaresbrook [Crown Court] in London – it’s now got more than 100 cases listed for 2029.”

Sir Mark asked Trevor Phillips to imagine he had been the victim of a crime, saying: “We’ve caught the person, we’ve charged him, ‘great news, Mr Phillips, we’ve got him charged, they’re going to court’.

“And then a few weeks later, I see the trial’s listed for 2029. That doesn’t feel great, does it?”

Asked about the fact that suspects could still be on the streets for years before going to trial, Sir Mark conceded it’s “pretty awful”.

He added: “If it’s someone on bail, who might have stolen your phone or whatever, and they’re going in for a criminal court trial, that could be four years away. And that’s pretty unacceptable, isn’t it?”

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Leveson explains plans to fix justice system

Challenge to reform the Met

The Met chief’s comments come two years after an official report found the force is institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic.

Baroness Casey was commissioned in 2021 to look into the Met Police after serving police officer Wayne Couzens abducted, raped and murdered Sarah Everard.

She pinned the primary blame for the Met’s culture on its past leadership and found stop and search and the use of force against black people was excessive.

At the time, Sir Mark, who had been commissioner for six months when the report was published, said he would not use the labels of institutionally racist, institutionally misogynistic and institutionally homophobic, which Baroness Casey insisted the Met deserved.

However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who helped hire Sir Mark – and could fire him – made it clear the commissioner agreed with Baroness Casey’s verdict.

A few months after the report, Sir Mark launched a two-year £366m plan to overhaul the Met, including increased emphasis on neighbourhood policing to rebuild public trust and plans to recruit 500 more community support officers and an extra 565 people to work with teams investigating domestic violence, sexual offences and child sexual abuse and exploitation.

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