Inflation to fall ‘rapidly’ – but worse interest rate pain yet to come, BoE governor warns
The governor of the Bank of England has told Sky News he expects inflation to fall “rapidly” in just weeks – but warned two thirds of the pain from interest rate rises is yet to come.
Andrew Bailey made the comments after interest rates were increased for a record-breaking 12th successive time, lifting the cost of borrowing to 4.5% earlier on Thursday.
The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee also predicted there would be no recession this year, upgrading its economic growth forecasts by more than in any of its previous reports.
But when quizzed by Sky’s economics and data editor Ed Conway on the impact on mortgages and how much interest rate-related pain was still to come to borrowers, Mr Bailey said: “We think, in terms of resetting and adjustments, about a third possibly has come through so far…
“There’s quite a large proportion of mortgages yet to reset.”
Read more:
Analysis: Cost of living pain still to come for millions despite Bank of England’s rosier outlook
Bank of England interest rate increased 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%
The governor said around 85% of mortgages in the UK are now on fixed rates, and that changes were taking longer to filter through to millions who are due to renew their mortgages this year.
But Mr Bailey said that falling energy prices and a more “resilient” economy meant inflation was likely to plummet when new figures are released later this month.
He said: “We do think that inflation is going to fall, quite rapidly… that doesn’t happen until the April data which will come out in a couple of weeks’ time.”
‘Utter, complete incompetence’
Meanwhile, Mr Bailey also appeared to rebuke the Bank’s chief economist Huw Pill, who attracted criticism last month for saying Britons “need to accept” they are poorer.
When asked if he shared those views, the governor replied: “I think we have to be careful with the choice of words here,” but said he accepted that national income had fallen.
He added: “I am very sensitive to [higher inflation]… because it’s so concentrated in the essentials of life – energy, foods – that it affects those less well-off households more, because they have a bigger share of their consumption in those essentials.”
Mr Bailey also said he “didn’t agree” with accusations that the Bank was poor at forecasting, and said the pandemic and war in Ukraine were both huge global shocks that had major economic impacts and could not have been foreseen.
He added: “What has been particularly difficult is we’ve had this succession of big shocks with no gaps in between, and we’ve had to deal with those, and we’ve had to adapt policy as those shocks and their effects come along.
“We are firmly behind the view we have now, which is why we’ve changed rates today, our future actions will be driven by the evidence and the evidence will move on.”
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‘This is terrible incompetence and this lot should just quit.’
However, Professor Danny Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, blasted the decision to raise rates.
He told Sky News: “The interest rate hikes haven’t really done much and the effect is going to come down the road… it’s going to have a big impact on the housing market and it’s going to plunge the UK economy into recession.
“So they did have an alternative, they have no idea what they’re doing, they shouldn’t have been raising rates and it’s going to hurt people because the consequences of raising rates are much worse than the cost of inflation. So this is utter, complete incompetence.”
Professor Blanchflower predicted that “screeching U-turns are coming”, and said the Bank should cut rates as soon as possible.
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BoE: ‘Inflation remains too high’
He said that, along with the pandemic and war in Ukraine, the UK has “one thing which people don’t want to say, but it is Brexit” in explaining higher inflation.
“It has made it difficult to import food and difficult to get the price of food down… so price levels have remained higher than they have elsewhere,” he added.
Inflation has risen by more than expected due to an increase in energy bills, official figures showed.
It’s the first rise in the rate of price increases, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), for three months.
The figure stood at 2.3% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), above the 2.2% forecast by economists.
This is also a sizeable increase on the 1.7% recorded a month earlier.
Money blog: Follow live reaction to inflation news
Household gas and electricity bills rose last month as the energy price cap brought the cost of a typical annual bill up to an extra £12 a month.
Inflation wasn’t higher because there were falls in live music and theatre ticket prices and continued drops in raw materials due to cheaper oil.
What about interest rates?
Today’s data may affect the likelihood of the Bank of England cutting interest rates next month.
Before the inflation figure was announced, there was a 78.3% chance of no change – and a 21.7% chance that the cost of borrowing would fall by 0.25 percentage points.
After the announcement that changed to 84% chance of no cut.
Also on the up was another important measure of inflation watched by the Bank – core inflation, which measures price rises but excludes food and energy costs as they’re liable to sharply fall or rise.
Core rose to 3.3%, more than the forecast 3.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters.
Services inflation also came in above forecast and higher than a month ago at 5%.
Political reaction
Responding to the figures the chief secretary to the treasury, Darren Jones, said:
“We know that families across Britain are still struggling with the cost of living. That is why the budget last month focused on fixing the foundation of our economy so we can deliver change.”
“But we know there is more to do. That is why the government is focused on economic growth and investment so we can make every part of the country better off.”
The shadow chancellor Mel Stride said:
“It’s higher inflation and lower growth under Labour.”
“What is worrying about today’s announcement is that inflation is running ahead of expectations and official forecasts state these figures are not expected to improve. Labour’s budget will push up inflation and mortgage rates.”
A woman casually walks into a convenience store and starts filling a bread crate with goods from one of the aisles.
A shop assistant tries to stop her, but she shrugs him off, undeterred. With the crate now full of items, she leaves without paying.
It is a scenario that is played out day in and day out across Britain, as retailers warn the surge in shoplifting is now “out of control”.
Four in five store owners told Sky News they’ve experienced shoplifting in just one week
I’m sitting in the security office of a busy city centre shop and I’m watching as a schoolboy walks in and helps himself to a sandwich, stuffing it into his jacket.
Watching with me is shop worker Anton Mavroianu who positions himself by the main entrance waiting for the youngster to leave.
When the boy does leave, Anton demands the item back. Instead of being frozen with fear that he’s been caught, the boy laughs and walks off.
“All we can do is try to stop them,” Anton tells me. “But this is just another day for us.”
Anton Mavroianu said he has been threatened with a knife while trying to stop shoplifters
A few weeks earlier, when Anton tried to stop a shoplifter who had stolen from the store, the man pulled out a knife and tried to attack him.
This terrifying incident is an example of the very real threat posed to shop workers as they try to stem the tide of brazen thefts.
Shoplifting offences recorded by police in England and Wales have risen to the highest level in 20 years.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) also reports that theft-related losses cost the retail sector millions each year, adding strain to an industry already grappling with post-pandemic recovery and economic uncertainty.
For small businesses, which lack the resources of larger chains, persistent theft can threaten their very survival.
Read more on shoplifting:
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Ricky Dougall owns a chain of convenience stores and says shoplifting cost his business around £100,000 last year.
“Shoplifting is a huge problem and it is what stops us from growing the business.
“People come in and help themselves like they own the place and when you call the police, most of the time, they don’t turn up.”
Ricky Dougall said part of the problem is how shoplifting is classified during sentencing
Mr Dougall says part of the problem is how this type of crime is classified.
Sentencing guidelines for thefts of under £200, so-called “low level shoplifting”, were relaxed in 2016. That is being blamed for the surge in cases.
An exclusive Sky News and Association of Convenience Stores survey shows that 80% of shopkeepers reported a retail crime within a week in October.
The poll also found 94% of shopkeepers say that in their experience, shoplifting has got worse over the last year, with 83% not confident that the police will take action against the perpetrators of retail crime on their premises.
Paul Cheema from the Association of Convenience Stores says retailers are looking to government to support them.
“I would say officials do not give a s*** about us retailers,” he tells me. “The losses are too big and I don’t think we can sustain that anymore.
“I would urge Keir Starmer to come and meet us and see up close the challenges that we are facing.”
Retailers have responded by investing heavily in security measures, from advanced surveillance systems to hiring more security staff.
But these investments come at a cost, often passed down to consumers through higher prices.
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I get chatting to Matt Roberts, head of retail in the store I am in. He worries about shoplifting, but he worries about the staff more.
He says: “I would imagine they dread coming to work because they’re always on tenterhooks wondering whether something is going to happen today, whether they are going to have to try and confront someone.
“It’s a horrible feeling. It’s out of control and we need help.”
Matt Roberts says he is concerned for his staff, who have to confront shoplifters
The government has acknowledged the urgency of the issue. Home secretary-led discussions with retail associations and law enforcement are under way to craft a comprehensive strategy.
In the King’s Speech, the government outlined details of a Crime and Policing Bill, which promised to “introduce stronger measures to tackle low level shoplifting”, as well as introducing a separate offence for assaulting a shop worker.
Inflation jumped to 2.3% in October – a six-month high.
A rise in household energy bills contributed to the higher-than-expected reading.
Economists had forecast a figure to 2.2% after a three-year low of 1.7% in September.
But how does all of this affect the cost of groceries, clothing and leisure activities? Use our calculator to find out.
Which prices are increasing fastest?
Unlike previous months, the item with the largest price increase was a non-food product: hair gel. Its price rose from £3.18 to £4.07, a jump of nearly 30% in just 12 months.
Olive oil also rose by close to 30%, with prices for 500ml to one litre rising from £7.16 to £9.16.
Experts have put that price rise down primarily to poor olive yields due to last year’s heatwaves in southern Europe.
However, they expect a significantly better harvest in the 2024-25 season, thanks to significant rainfall in Spain. The harvest could be double the size of last year’s, which may lead to lower prices in the coming months.
Food and drink products are responsible for eight of the 10 biggest increases since last year.
Top five price rises:
• Hair gel (150 to 200ml): up 28%, £3.18 to £4.07
• Olive oil (500ml to one litre): up 28%, £7.16 to £9.16
• Carrots (per kg): up 28%, 65p to 83p
• Iceberg lettuce (each): up 23%, 79p to 97p
• White potatoes (per kg): up 19%, 75p to 89p
Overall, 47 of the 156 types of food and drink tracked by the ONS have actually become cheaper since last year.
There’s good news for fans of a prawn cocktail: frozen prawns and mayonnaise are among the top 10 foods with the largest price decreases.
Overall, 147 out of the 444 products in our database are cheaper than they were 12 months ago.
Top food price decreases:
• Pulses (390g to 420g): down 11%, 76p to 68p
• Frozen prawns (per kg): down 9%, £19.04 to £17.42
• Mayonnaise (390g to 500g/420ml to 540ml): down 7%, £2.20 to £2.04
• Pre-prepared mashed potatoes (400g to 650g): down 7%, £1.12 to £1.04
• Canned tomatoes (390g to 400g): down 7%, 71p to 66p
Of non-supermarket items, kerosene has been the biggest price faller – by a quarter.
What is the effect of long-term inflation?
The price changes described above compare the cost of items to where they were a year ago.
However, inflation has now been at high levels for an extended period of time.
The war in Ukraine, COVID, Brexit, and other supply chain pressures have all contributed to spiralling costs in recent years.
Inflation reached a 40-year high of 11.1% in October 2022.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
While the headline inflation figure has come down markedly, any amount of inflation means that prices are still rising, and building on already inflated costs.
We’ve compared the costs of shopping items with what they were three years ago to see what the cumulative impact of inflation has been.
The biggest price rise for groceries over that time has been for olive oil (500ml to one litre), which has increased nearly two-and-a-half times (146%), from £3.72 to £9.16 in the past three years.
Iceberg lettuce is up by four-fifths, with one costing 97p now compared with 54p in October 2021.
Use our calculator to see how much prices in your shopping basket have risen in total since three years ago.
Who is worst affected?
Richard Lim, chief executive of Retail Economics, says: “It’s the least affluent households that are going to see much higher rates of inflation as they spend more of their income on food and energy.”
We’ll continue to update our spending calculator over the coming months so you can see how you’ll be affected.
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Methodology
The ONS collects these prices by visiting thousands of shops across the country and noting down the prices of specific items. There are upwards of 100,000 prices published every month, from more than 600 products.
The items that form the “official shopping basket” change each year to reflect how the purchasing habits of the population have changed. For example in March 2021, after a year of the pandemic, hand gel, loungewear bottoms and dumbbells were added, while canteen-bought sandwiches were among the items removed.
Where there aren’t the exact equivalent items available at a survey shop, ONS officials pick the best alternative and note that they’ve done this so it’s weighted correctly when the averages are worked out.
Shops are weighted as well, so the price in a major chain supermarket will have a greater impact on the average than an independent corner shop.
We will be updating these figures each month while the cost of living crisis continues.
During the pandemic, more of the survey was carried out over the phone and work is ongoing to digitise the system to be able to take in more price points by getting data from supermarket receipts, rather than making personal visits.
Data journalists: Daniel Dunford, Amy Borrett, Ben van der Merwe, Joely Santa Cruz and Saywah Mahmood
Interactive: Ganesh Rao
Design: Phoebe Rowe, Brian Gillingham
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
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