Adam Boulton: Sir Keir Starmer risks complacency by suggesting job all but done after local elections
As daylight broke on the English local election results a week ago, Sir Keir Starmer popped up in the Kent council district of Medway – which Labour had just captured from the Conservatives – to declare that Labour is “on course for a majority government”.
He stuck to his line doggedly this week under tough, evidence-based questioning from Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby.
A Labour majority government after the next election would be a big deal for the United Kingdom.
It would be the first switch in direction, from rightward to leftward, for 14 years – after four consecutive general election defeats for Labour.
So was Sir Keir right? Is Labour on course for a majority victory? Was his bold claim good campaigning? What should Labour do between now and then to make it come true?
Another majority victory would be a stunning achievement for Labour in this Conservative-leaning country, in which the Tory Party have enjoyed the lion’s share of government over the last two centuries.
Of the five Labour prime ministers since 1945 – there have been 12 Conservative PMs in that time – only Clement Attlee and Tony Blair scored knockout victories at the first time of asking.
Harold Wilson, Labour’s only other election winner, took two general elections close together each time in the 1960s and 1970s to consolidate his position.
Two of Britain’s best-known election analysts share a similar verdict after going through the local election statistics: very bad for the Conservatives, good but not there yet for Labour and promising, for lower stakes, for the Liberal Democrats and Greens.
Sir Keir joins party members in Chatham, Kent, where Labour has taken overall control of Medway Council for the first time since 1998 after winning 30 of its 59 seats.
On the basis of last week’s vote neither guru points to Labour enjoying a parliamentary majority of 326 MPs or more.
For Sky News, Professor Michael Thrasher of Oxford’s Nuffield Politics Research Centre puts general election equivalent vote shares at Labour 36%, Conservatives 29%, Liberal Democrats 18% and others 17%.
Sir John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde, marked both main parties down slightly on the BBC: Labour 35%, Conservatives 26%, Liberal Democrats 20%, others 19%.
For reference, shares at the last general election in 2019 were roughly Labour 32%, Conservative 44%, Liberal Democrat 12% others 12%).
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This is how the local election unfolded
What would political picture look like if last week’s local vote had been a general election?
Had last Thursday been a general election, Professor Thrasher projects that Labour would have had 298 MPs (+95), with the Tories on 238 (-127), Liberal Democrats 39 (+28) and others (including the Scottish National Party) 75.
Sir Keir would either have found himself the leader of a minority government, dependent on passive endorsement from other parties, or in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
There is one analysis which is more hopeful for Labour. Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at Trinity College, Oxford, says “Starmer might be right”.
Plymouth City Council leader Tudor Evans takes a selfie with (left to right) shadow levelling Up, housing and communities secretary Lisa Nandy, Sir Keir Starmer and deputy Labour Party leader Angela Rayner
It should be said that any projections for the whole UK from last week’s elections are fiendishly difficult. Last week was the biggest test of voter opinion before the next general election but it only involved some councils in parts of England, and none in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or London.
Electoral geography is changing
Rather than work on the basis of uniform swings across the country, Professor Fisher delves into detailed voting patterns in types of constituencies. He argues that the electoral geography is changing.
The swing to Labour is bigger in seats where it is the challenger to the Tories, he says, and the Brexit dividend is dwindling, which should mean an extra 15 MPs for Labour above the national trend.
Opinion polls also suggest Labour should pick up 11 seats in Scotland. “That would give Labour a majority of 32,” he writes in Prospect Magazine.
Maybe. Veterans of the three New Labour victories point out that “Tony” never took winning for granted and indeed prepared elaborately for talks with the Liberal Democrats, had he fallen short in what turned out to be the Labour landslide win in 1997.
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Explained: How can Sir Keir Starmer get No 10 keys without a majority?
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Starmer hails ‘amazing results’
Perhaps Sir Keir simply wanted to thank his supporters by cheering them up. Unfortunately he was also in danger of looking complacent by suggesting the job was all but done.
Why campaign harder in the months until the next general election if it is a done deal? If you are not sure, why bother to make a tactical switch to Labour, if their boss says he’s going to win anyway?
If Labour ends up the biggest party in a hung parliament, Sir Keir will be a failure in his own terms, having weakened his own hand for any talks with other parties.
Rishi Sunak gave a hint of the direction he thinks the contest is really moving at Prime Minister’s Questions when he rebuffed Sir Keir’s buoyant mood with a quotation from Tony Blair: “The right honourable gentleman can be as cocky as he likes about the local elections; come a general election, policy counts.”
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Beth Rigby analyses PMQs
When Mr Blair said that, in May 2007, the party roles were reversed.
Blair was prime minister, David Cameron the leader of the opposition. Mr Blair would hand over to Gordon Brown a few weeks later. Labour had just lost 900 seats in council elections. Mr Blair added: “On policy we win, he loses”. He was not proved right when the election came around in 2010.
But parliament was hung with Mr Cameron on 306 MPs, 20 short of a majority. Mr Sunak or his researchers clearly see an analogy and are working to limit the extent of the damage to their party.
Sir Keir on course for an underwhelming success
Voters seem to agree that Sir Keir is on course for an underwhelming success. In a YouGov poll this week, 22% thought Labour would have a narrow overall majority while 17% expected it to be the largest party in a hung parliament.
Just 11% are waiting for a big Labour victory. Only a third of those surveyed gave the Conservatives any chance of forming the next government.
A YouGov/TimesRadio poll asking 2019 Conservative voters their top reason for switching to Labour found 30% think the Conservatives are doing a bad job; 15% feel a need for change; 11% no longer trust the Tories.
The overwhelming motivations are negativity about the Conservatives rather than positivity towards Labour or its leadership.
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‘A disappointing night overall’ for the Conservatives
In these circumstances Labour strategists see little need to strengthen their party’s policy offering now. They point out that Mr Blair kept back his five pledges card, including the no tax rise guarantee, until weeks before polling day while the biggest economic initiative – Bank of England independence – was kept under wraps until Mr Blair and Mr Brown were safely in Downing Street.
Sir Keir and Mr Sunak have each unveiled pallid five pledge lists of their own. But continuing economic difficulties are already discrediting their cautiously caveated offers.
Labour’s best-defined pledges are economic raids on soft targets such private schools, oil companies and big business. Sir Keir is devoting much of his energy to personalised attacks on Mr Sunak, mainly for his family wealth. Repetition of these lines may perhaps bring over new voters.
Sir Keir has devoted much of his energy to personalised attacks on Mr Sunak, mainly for his family wealth.
After canvassing recently in prosperous “safe Tory” constituencies, some veteran door-knockers are inclined to agree with Sir Keir and Professor Fisher that the mood of the voters has changed irrevocably against the Conservatives.
The Tories will be defeated heavily by Labour when ever the election comes, they fear, even at the latest date in 18 months’ time.
A more dispassionate analysis is that the Labour Party need to make 139 gains for a Fisher-style victory. They have only done that three times in history.
“You’d have to ask yourself ‘is that the zeitgeist of 1924?” wonders Professor Thrasher.
In 1929 Labour fielded candidates across the board for the first time. 1945 witnessed “the days of hope” when Attlee turned out the wartime leader Churchill. In 1997 the Tories were sleaze-ridden and divided, while Labour united behind the charismatic leadership of Mr Blair.
Is Britain “on course” for another epochal election? The evidence is mixed so far.
Nearly 500 people have been arrested over protests supporting the proscribed group Palestine Action, as demonstrators defied calls to reconsider in the wake of the Manchester synagogue terror attack.
Two days after the attack in Crumpsall, crowds of people gathered in central London on Saturday to call on the government to reverse the ban on the proscribed group.
Organisers of the protest, Defend Our Juries, said 1,000 people attended the event to “oppose genocide and the Palestine Action ban”.
The Metropolitan Police said 492 people had been arrested, with the youngest being 18 and the eldest 89. The force said 297 remain in custody and the rest have been bailed.
Before the demonstration even began, six people were arrested for unfurling banners which read “I oppose genocide” and “I support Palestine Action” on Westminster Bridge.
The bulk of the arrests were made in Trafalgar Square, where protesters held placards showing their support for Palestine Action, which was added to the UK’s list of proscribed terrorist groups in July.
The Met said a different group of protesters also gathered in Whitehall before trying to make their way to Trafalgar Square.
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Met Police call on pro-Palestine protesters
Many of those arrested throughout the day were older individuals. Pictures showed people with walking sticks or in wheelchairs being supported by police, while others were physically carried to a processing pen after failing to cooperate with officers.
One protester, 62-year-old Mike Higgins, who is blind and uses a wheelchair, told the PA news agency: “We are going to win this battle, by the way, there’s no doubt about that. The problem for me is that I want to win it now to try and bring an end to the suffering in Palestine.”
Police remove a protester taking part in a demonstration in support of Palestine Action in Trafalgar Square. Pic: PA
Pic: PA
The Metropolitan Police had urged the Defend Our Juries group to postpone the event in light of the synagogue attack.
Chief of the Metropolitan Police, Sir Mark Rowley, said he was worried resources would be stretched and the ability of the force to protect communities would be compromised as a result of the protest.
Protesters unfurl a banner on Westminster Bridge. Pic: PA
Pic: PA
In a statement on X on Saturday morning, Sir Keir Starmer also said anyone thinking of protesting should “recognise and respect the grief of British Jews”, while Jewish figures called the action “phenomenally tone deaf”.
In a letter to Ade Adelekan, the deputy assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, Defend Our Juries said the protest would continue as planned as “the protection of our democracy and the prevention of countless deaths are critical issues”.
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The controversial decision drew criticism from policing minister Sarah Jones, who said many of those attending the event “want to be arrested, that is their aim”.
She said: “We believe in people’s rights to protest. This protest here in London is a different order of event because people are supporting a proscribed organisation and the police have to step in, in that case.”
Pic: PA
A similar event held by the group, Greater Manchester Friends of Palestine, took place earlier on Saturday in Manchester. Instead of marching in support of Palestine Action, the event was to “honour the names of Palestinian children brutally killed by Israel in Gaza”.
A crowd of around 100 pro-Palestinian supporters gathered outside the city’s Cathedral to listen to speakers before moving en masse to St Peter’s Square.
A similar event was held in Greater Manchester. Pic: Reuters
A counter-protester in Manchester. Pic: Reuters
People were heard chanting “Free Palestine!” while a small group of counter-protesters marched in front shouting “release the hostages”.
Greater Manchester Police (GMP) did not say if any arrests were made.
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Synagogue attack: Burnham and Badenoch in Manchester
Away from the protests, GMP said four of the six people arrested in connection to the synagogue terror attack will remain in custody for up to another five days.
The force said the custody extension applies to two men, aged 30 and 32, and two women, aged 61 and 46.
An 18-year-old woman and a 43-year-old man have been released and will face no further action.
GMP said all six people had been arrested on suspicion of commission, preparation and instigation of acts of terrorism.
Police have been granted extra time to question four people who were arrested in connection with the terrorist attack on a synagogue in Manchester.
Three men remain in hospital after the car and knife attack at the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue on Thursday.
Jihad al Shamie, 35, who was on bail for an alleged rape, was shot by police as he launched the attack on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar.
Adrian Daulby, 53, is believed to have been shot dead by police while trying to stop al Shamie from entering the synagogue.
He died alongside Melvin Cravitz, 66, a worshipper who helped prevent the attacker from entering the place of worship.
Pic: PA
Counter Terrorism Policing North West (CTPNW) is leading the police operation and has been granted warrants allowing them to detain four people who were arrested on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts for a further five days.
The warrants relate to two men, aged 30 and 32, and two women, aged 46 and 61.
Greater Manchester Police (GMP) said the investigation was “continuing at pace” with “significant resources” mobilised in order to “establish the full picture into what has happened”.
The force said three men remain in hospital with serious injuries, including a security guard with car-impact injuries and a Community Security Trust (CST) worker with stab wounds.
On Friday, the police watchdog, which is investigating the incident, said it was examining the use of lethal force by GMP firearms officers, including “whether police may have caused or contributed to the death” of Mr Daulby.
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Tributes to ‘kind and heroic’ victims of Manchester attack
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Arrests at pro-Palestine protest
Nearly 500 arrested as pro-Palestine protest goes ahead despite pleas
It comes as 492 people were arrested over protests supporting the proscribed group Palestine Action in Trafalgar Square on Saturday.
The demonstration went ahead despite Sir Keir Starmer, other politicians and police bosses calling on organisers to reconsider.
The Board of Deputies of British Jews called for those who attended the demonstration arrested under the Terrorism Act to also be investigated for stirring up racial hatred.
The board is set to hold an event in the same location on Sunday afternoon to reflect on the two-year anniversary of the 7 October Hamas attack.
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Met Police call on pro-Palestine protesters
On Friday, the head of counter-terrorism policing, Laurence Taylor, said a “suspicious device” attached to al Shamie’s torso was fake and police believed he “may have been influenced by extreme Islamist ideology”.
He added: “Based on some fast-time assessments conducted on our systems, this individual does not appear to be known to counter-terrorism policing, however, he does have a non-CT (counter-terror) related criminal history.
“This includes a recent arrest for rape, which resulted in him being bailed.”
UK
Prince William ‘cares deeply about tradition’ but Earthshot Prize shows he’s not afraid to modernise
A close adviser to Prince William has told Sky News William “does care deeply about tradition” but his Earthshot Prize shows he’s not afraid to modernise to make sure his work “makes sense” for the generation he will serve.
Marking a month to go until the fifth Earthshot Prize awards takes place in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, Jason Knauf, the new chief executive, says it shows “the sort of leader that Prince William wants to be, both now and in the future” but also the huge impact his influence can have on issues like the climate crisis.
Mr Knauf has become a close confidante of the Prince, having worked with him for ten years, and being there right at the beginning of the Earthshot journey, “when this thing was percolating, and he really pushed us to make it something special”.
But after discussions this week about the “change” William wants to make when he’s monarch, Mr Knauf told us the Prince doesn’t want to just shake things up for the sake of it.
“He does care deeply about tradition, about his family’s legacy of service, and I think Earthshot is a really good example of how you’re going to see that maintained in the future, but done in a way that makes sense for the time”, he said, adding: “That’s what his grandmother did.
“That’s what his father’s been doing. Updating the tradition for the generation that they serve”.
Prince William joined actor Cate Blanchett during a visit to Earthshot Prize finalist Colorifix. Pic: Andrew Parsons / Kensington Palace
Explaining how in the early days they looked closely at other examples of past royal prizes or initiatives, such as the Duke of Edinburgh Award, for inspiration, Mr Knauf said: “You know, we didn’t just create this thing in a vacuum. It was about what kind of difference could his leadership make?
“And one of the things about the royal family for generations, has been recognising the work of others.
“You know, whether that’s through the honours system, recognising people in arts and community service or whatever it might be, all this is doing is taking something that’s really traditional and putting a modern twist on it”.
Pic: AP
Last week, a TV programme was released in which Prince William admitted, during an interview with Hollywood star Eugene Levy, that “change is on my agenda” when he becomes King.
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Prince William hinted at ‘change’ in an interview with Canadian TV presenter Euguene Levy
This weekend, the finalists for the fifth Earthshot awards are announced, with four weeks to go until the ceremony takes place in Rio.
The prize recognises innovators coming up with solutions to the world’s most pressing environmental problems.
Among this year’s finalists in the running for the five £1m prizes are Matter, a British company whose simple washing machine filters remove the greatest cause of microplastics in our ocean; the world’s first fully ‘upcycled skyscraper’ in Australia, a Chinese company working on mobile phone waste, and the country of Barbados for its environmental focus.
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For the first time, the awards will take place in the same country, in the same week as the UN climate change conference COP30.
Prince William is the founder and president of The Earthshot Prize. Pic AP
Addressing whether the positive message of Earthshot will be overshadowed by the inevitable split opinions on tackling the climate crisis that will come out of the conference in Belem, Mr Knauf said: “The news around political disagreement and all of that stuff will be out there, but that’s one of the reasons we created the prize, directly to challenge that pessimism and negativity, to say we need to get on with this work.
“Showing world leaders that big things are happening in their regions and in their countries and in their backyards should remind them that, actually, this isn’t something that’s theoretical.
“The actual solutions that we need really, really do exist”.
Prince William will travel to Brazil on 3 November for engagements in Rio, highlighting environmental issues, as well as attending the awards on 5 November at the iconic Museum of Tomorrow.
In a video posted on his social media, the Prince explains how he continues to do this for his children, saying: “The Earthshot Prize was founded because this decade matters.
“2030 is a threshold by which future generations will judge us; it is the point at which our actions, or lack of them, will have shaped forever the trajectory of our planet.”
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