Renewables provided almost two-thirds (64.64%) of new US utility-scale generating capacity added in the first quarter of 2023, according to newly released Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) data, which was reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.
New utility-scale solar capacity was 2,530 megawatts (MW) or 39.56% of the total – and that doesn’t include small-scale distributed photovoltaics, such as rooftop solar. New wind capacity provided 1,475 MW – or 23.06% of the total. Hydropower and biomass added 100 MW and 29 MW, respectively. New natural gas capacity totaled 2,259 MW (35.32%) and was supplemented by 2 MW of new oil. No new capacity additions were reported for coal, nuclear power, or geothermal.
In the month of March alone, all new capacity additions were provided by only solar (491 MW) and wind (409 MW).
With these latest additions, renewable energy now accounts for 27.67% of total installed utility-scale generating capacity, including 11.51% from wind and 6.67% from solar.
Notably, the share of US generating capacity is growing at a substantially faster rate than FERC had anticipated. In March 2020, renewables’ share of total generating capacity was just 22.74%. At that time, FERC projected that “high probability” additions by solar in the ensuing three-year period would be 24,083 MW. In fact, solar grew by 39,470 MW. Likewise, FERC’s three-year forecast for net “high probability” wind additions was 26,867 MW. Instead, wind expanded by 38,550 MW.
Combined, new solar and wind capacity additions totaled 78,020 MW during the past three years, or 53.13% more than FERC had expected.
For the next three years, FERC is now forecasting 77,594 MW of new “high probability” solar capacity joined by 17,071 MW in net new wind capacity plus 556 MW from hydropower and 2 MW from geothermal.
By comparison, coal capacity is foreseen to drop by 28,507 MW, oil by 1,572 MW, natural gas by 574 MW, nuclear power by 123 MW, and biomass by 103 MW.
If FERC’s projections prove to be accurate, by the end of the first quarter of 2026, renewable energy generating capacity will be more than one-third (33.46%) of the total, with nearly equal shares provided by wind (12.23%) and solar (12.16%). Meanwhile, the shares provided by fossil fuels and nuclear power would all decrease: natural gas from 44% to 41.83%; coal from 17.12% to 14.16%; oil from 2.99% to 2.73%; and nuclear power from 7.97% to 7.63%.
SUN DAY Campaign notes that we should keep in mind the degree to which FERC underestimated wind and solar growth during the past three years, so it’s possible the US generating capacity by the mix of all renewables by spring 2026 could end up being significantly higher than FERC now expects.
SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong said:
Over the past three years, renewable sources, led by solar and wind, added nearly five percentage points to their share of the nation’s electrical generating.
If that pace continues or accelerates – as seems likely – renewables will be providing more than a third of total installed generating capacity within the next three years, and quite possibly more.
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Despite mocking 350 kW as “a child’s toy” in 2016, the company is just rolling out 325 kW V4 chargers in 2025. Meanwhile companies like BP are celebrating 400 kW installations along major highways – and they’re making money doing it. All this and more on today’s thrilling January 47th episode of Quick Charge!
We’ve also got a blast from the past in the form of one of my first Electrek article from way back in 2022, GM’s performance making TSLA look like a meme stock, and a massive lithium project in the Heartland.
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But now we know that that indefinite delay is now fully definite: the model has been canceled in the US and Canada.
The news was broken yesterday by The Car Guide, speaking with a VW Canada representative. We’ve since reached out to VW, who confirmed the news to us.
Automotive News quoted a VW spokesperson saying the decision was made due to “the ongoing challenging EV climate.” Last year in North America, EV sales grew by 9%, faster than the overall auto market which grew at 2.5%, suggesting that the market is in fact more challenging for non-EVs than EVs at the moment. Further, gas car sales have been in long term decline since 2017, whereas EV sales have risen drastically in that time period.
That growth was achieved with very few available sedan models as well, with almost every EV available in America being an SUV-type. Adding additional model availability could open up the market to more buyers who want a right-sized vehicle instead of a land yacht.
But VW has been having a challenging time itself in the US. Until recently, it only offered a single SUV model, the ID.4, in the US. Whilethe ID.4 has brought a lot of upgrades recently, it’s also one of the few vehicles whose sales were down in a growing market (which was true even before the stop sale which has now been lifted after fixing a door handle problem). Perhaps VW could have benefitted from offering a vehicle in a different format.
VW had previously blamed its delay of the ID.7 on “market conditions.” It didn’t specify which market conditions it was referring to, but we have some suspicions.
Manufacturers have a belief that Americans only want SUVs (or so they say – really, this is at least partially driven by emissions rules), and the ID.7 is not one. Although VW at one point did try to portray it as one – when we first saw the ID.7 it was in the guise of the “Space Vizzion” concept, and VW said it “combines the aerodynamic qualities of a Gran Turismo with the generous interior space of an SUV,” trying to leverage Americans’ supposed desire only for land yachts by portraying a somewhat more sensible wagon as something it’s not.
That said, the car likely would have been higher-priced than the ID.4, as it is in Europe. The best-selling electric sedan in the US is the Tesla Model 3, with few other options outside of the luxury market. The ID.7 could have offered an alternative for buyers who are looking for something that isn’t associated with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, but its likely high starting price might have limited that appeal.
But while this is a disappointment for those of us waiting for more right-sized electric vehicles, it doesn’t mean the end for new VW EVs in the US. Automotive News quoted a VW spokesman as saying that “electric vehicles continue to be a core part of Volkswagen’s long-term product strategy, and new electric models will continue to be introduced for this market.” So, stay tuned for more.
Well, if you still want an electric VW, there’s always the ID.4. To contact a local dealer and see if they have any VW ID.4s ready to sell, feel free to use our link. You can also reach out about the ID.Buzz, if a quirky electric minivan is more your speed.
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The sun is shining on Nextracker in extended trading Tuesday, as shares soared after the solar technology company reported a top and bottom line beat for its fiscal third quarter. Even better, management increased its full-year profitability outlook and reported a record backlog. Revenue in its fiscal 2025 third quarter came in at $679 million, down 4.5% year over year, but well ahead of the $651 million consensus estimate, according to LSEG. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.03 in the three months ended Dec. 31 rose 7.3% on an annual basis, breezing past the 59-cent estimate, LSEG data showed. The results were strong and the call was bullish. Nextracker executives are firing on all cylinders, winning larger projects both in the U.S. and abroad, and the company seems well-positioned to navigate any hiccups resulting from tariffs, the supply chain or shifting U.S. energy policy priorities. It’s no wonder Nextracker shares jumped more than 16% in after-hours trading, to roughly $46.20 apiece. That is above the stock’s highest close so far this year, set on Jan. 16 at $45.27 a share. Nextracker began 2025 on a tear, extending momentum it found in mid-December after a post-election pullback ran its course. We twice sold into the strength, most recently on Jan. 7 . Following Nextracker’s Jan. 16 peak, though, the stock had been negative in six out of the past seven sessions through Tuesday. NXT 1Y mountain Nextracker shares over the past 12 months. Bottom line It’s hard to ask for more than what Nextracker delivered Tuesday night. Sales and earnings trounced expectations, fueled by an adjusted EBITDA margin that crushed Wall Street expectations. EBITDA — short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization — is an alternative measure of operating profitability. Free cash flow also ran well ahead of estimates. Better yet, the future looks bright. Management raised its outlook for full-year cash flow and earnings, thanks no doubt to a record backlog that is now “significantly greater than $4.5 billion,” according to a press release. At the end of Nextracker’s fiscal second quarter, the company said the backlog was “more than $4.5 billion.” Investors keep a close eye on changes to this descriptive language, evidenced by an earnings sell-off in August after Nextracker used “over $4 billion” for the second straight quarter. The backlog growth is being supported by “robust demand in all key regions for the company with meaningful contributions from new products,” the press release said. During the earnings call, we learned that 87% of Nextracker’s backlog is expected to be realized over the next eight quarters. And of that eight-quarter chunk, “the majority of that” is expected to be realized over the next four quarters, President Howard Wenger said on the call. Tuesday’s report makes clear that this is a very strong management team, and the raised guidance — and record backlog — bode very well for the future. “As far as the U.S. market goes, the demand is strong,” Wenger said. “We had record bookings in the U.S. this quarter and our pipeline is indicative of continued strength.” Nevertheless, we’re keeping our hold-equivalent 2 rating and price target of $55 a share on Nextracker’s stock. For starters, it’s not our style to chase a move like the one we are seeing in extended trading Tuesday. But, crucially, we also need more clarity on solar policy under the new Trump administration. While President Donald Trump has said that he’s a “big fan of solar,” it’s unclear what the administration’s policies will be regarding government spending on renewable energy and solar tax credits. Trump has notably been critical of wind energy, and since taking office last week, he has taken a number of steps to boost fossil fuel production in the U.S. Nextracker Why we own it: Nextracker makes industry-leading tracking technology, which enables large-scale solar panel installations to follow the sun’s movement and increase their power generation. The stock has been volatile and largely disappointing, but we see this investment as a long-term bet on growing electricity demand, driven in large part by artificial intelligence computing. Competitors: Array Technologies Weight in the Club portfolio: 0.92% Initiation: June 27, 2024 Most recent buy: Sept. 6, 2024 Trump’s pledges to raise tariffs on imports into the U.S. is another wrinkle to the Nextracker story. Asked about tariffs, Nextracker executives sounded confident in their ability to navigate whatever may come, calling out “very strong relationships” with U.S. steel mills and a diversified international supply chain that includes India, a solid alternative to China. “We’re in this great position [where] we can make locally for local markets, or we can export to arbitrage depending on what’s happening with the global supply chain,” CEO Dan Shugar said on the call. That supply chain strength also makes Nextracker more attractive to customers. In our October earnings reaction, we noted that Nextracker’s successful efforts to sell 100% domestically made solar trackers could make its products more attractive to customers since they will be able to take advantage of a 10% investment tax credit included in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Wenger provided a positive update on this dynamic on Tuesday’s call. “From a customer perspective in our pipeline, in our actual bookings, we’re seeing more and more domestic content to be part of what we’re contracted to do and not only to have domestic content, but they have higher and higher levels of domestic content,” he said. “We’re seeing more customers wanting 100% domestic content.” Ultimately, Nextracker continues to differentiate itself from the competition, resulting in growing demand. Wenger argued that Nextracker is winning because of what executives see as a “flight to quality.” “Over time with scale, these projects are getting bigger and bigger. There’s more of them where we believe we’re emerging as really the trusted brand, but we’re also differentiated across many of the key buying vectors, proven technology, proven low cost, proven energy yield,” he said, which all contributes to a lower levelized cost of energy, or LCOE, a key metric in the industry. Guidance Similar to what we saw in late October, Nextracker reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance while increasing its outlook profitability and cash flow. 2025 revenue guidance: $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance: $700 million to $740 million, up from $625 million to $665 million 2025 adjusted EPS guidance: $3.75 to $3.95, an increase from $3.10 to $3.30 Reiterating sales guidance is understandable considering there is elevated uncertainty about U.S. policy with Trump back in the White House and Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress. However, the material increase to the profit outlook demonstrates the strength of Nextracker’s leadership team, as the company is operating much more efficiently than the Street was expecting. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NXT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. 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The sun is shining on Nextracker in extended trading Tuesday, as shares soared after the solar technology company reported a top and bottom line beat for its fiscal third quarter. Even better, management increased its full-year profitability outlook and reported a record backlog.