Global temperature set to break key 1.5C heat threshold for first time in next five years
The global temperature is set to break a key temperature limit for the first time within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned.
There is now a 66% chance of breaching a global average temperature 1.5C at least once between now and 2027 – which would mark the first time in human history.
Almost every country in the world has committed to trying to limit warming to ideally only 1.5C above levels in pre-industrial times.
Nations did this when they signed the historic Paris climate agreement at the COP21 climate conference, in a bid to keep the dangerous impacts of climate change, like floods, rising sea levels and droughts, more manageable.
Breaching 1.5C, while alarming, would not mean the world had permanently surpassed the threshold, scientists stress.
A crumbling 1.5C target could embolden big polluters
Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, the climate change narrative has focused on efforts to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.
At successive UN climate summits, the language may have shifted a little, from keeping it within reach to keeping it alive, to not letting it die – but 1.5C has been a hugely symbolic center of gravity around which the vast majority of discussions have rotated.
Now, for the first time, scientists say it is more likely that not that this barrier will be breached in the coming five years.
They have stressed that this is worrying but temporary and that the temperature could be brought down over the long term by a sharp decrease in emissions.
But this is the kind of moment that keeps those engaged in the battle against climate change up at night.
Because the very worst thing that could happen to policymakers and climate diplomats fighting to keep consensus in a warming world, is that this hard-fought shared goal, a rare common value, starts to crumble.
If the international community starts to believe that 1.5 is gone, there will be space for big polluters, national and commercial, to wriggle away from obligations and to slow progress, at a time when the planet can least afford it.
The global average temperature would need to exceed 1.5C many more times before the climate can be said to have permanently warmed to that level.
But it is a sign the world is getting closer, and that humanity’s attempt to reign in climate change, which is caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, may have been too small and too slow.
Dr Leon Hermanson of the Met Office Hadley Centre, one of the experts who led the report, said: “We have never crossed 1.5C. The current record is 1.28C.
“It’s very likely we’re going to exceed that, we might even reach 1.5C – it’s more likely than not that we will.
“It’s not this long-term warming that the Paris Agreement talks about, but it is an indication that as we start having these years, with 1.5C happening more and more often, we’re getting closer and closer to having the actual long-term climate being on that threshold.”
There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean average will exceed the 1.5C threshold.
The world has already warmed by around 1.1C at least.
The WMO also said there is a 98% chance of the hottest year on record being broken during that time.
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Dr Hermanson said the record will likely come from a combination of greenhouse gases and a naturally-occurring weather event known as El Nino, which is a heating of the eastern Pacific which affects rainfall and temperatures globally.
The WMO said that its opposite – La Nina – has been cooling atmospheric temperatures for much of the last three years, but this has now ended.
Usually, El Nino raises global temperatures the year after it develops. So scientists are expecting temperatures to rise in 2024.
The WMO general secretary Professor Petteri Taalas said: “A warming El Nino is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.
“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”
The United Nation’s climate science body the IPCC has said every increment of warming brings more damage to people and wildlife – it’s not a cliff edge at 1.5C, but a more desirable threshold.
Current plans to reduce greenhouse gases put the world on course for around 2.4C of warming by the end of this century, according to a leading climate consortium, Climate Action Tracker.
Watch The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3pm and 7.30pm on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, and on YouTube and Twitter.
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‘Better late than never’: Palestinian minister says UK recognition of state would be ‘courageous step’
Britain will be taking “a courageous step at a very difficult time” by officially recognising a Palestinian state, according to the authority’s foreign minister, who told Sky News she believes the announcement – expected in the coming days – will inspire more nations to follow suit.
The Palestinian Authority’s foreign minister, Varsen Aghabekian, told me Britain’s move was “better late than never”, and said “Britain, with its weight, can influence other countries to come forward and recognise, because that is the right thing to do”.
But she also said she is “very angry” with the White House over its “unwavering support” for Israel, and said that Israel’s refusal to pass on tax revenue was pushing Palestinian civil society to the brink of “collapse”.
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Could recognition of Palestine change the West Bank?
Aghabekian was speaking as Britain, along with France, Canada and Australia, prepares to recognise the State of Palestine officially at the United Nations.
She told me: “Britain has been supporting the existence and the flourishing of Israel for some time, but I think today Britain is looking at the matter objectively, in terms of the right of people, in terms of complying with international law, and in terms of the future of this area for both the Israelis and Palestinians.”
She rejected the idea that recognising Palestine was a reward for Hamas terrorism, saying that “non-recognition” would also be a “reward to the extremists” and said that “if we wait until Israel decides it wants to go into negotiations with the Palestinians, then it won’t happen”.
Aghabekian told me she expected Gaza to be returned to the Palestinians, but I put it to her that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was being empowered by the diplomatic support he receives from America, and in particular, US President Donald Trump.
So is she angry with the White House? “Very angry, because I expect the White House and the United States of America to align with international law, with human rights, with having no double standards.
“This unwavering support for Israel, this blind support, is not only harming the Palestinians but also Israeli society.”
Read more:
What does recognising a Palestinian state mean?
Gaza could be ‘real estate bonanza’, Israeli minister says
Varsen Aghabekian speaks to Sky’s Adam Parsons
The state of Palestine is already recognised by three-quarters of the United Nations’ members. It comprises two separate territories – the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip. Together, they are officially known as the Occupied Palestinian Territories.
The West Bank has been subject to Israeli military occupation since 1967, while Gaza has been attacked by Israel since the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023, when nearly 1,200 Israelis were killed and around 250 people were taken hostage.
Since then, more than 65,000 people have been killed in Gaza as Israel has sought to destroy Hamas and recover its hostages. There are 48 hostages still in Gaza, with 20 believed to be alive.
She confirmed to me that Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, “has given guarantees in letters to various leaders around the globe that said Hamas will not be part of the governance of the Gaza Strip” and insisted there was “probably a worldwide consensus” on the topic.
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How has UK responded to Israel-Gaza conflict?
But she also insisted it was “not reasonable” to talk of completely erasing Hamas: “Hamas is an ideology, not a building that you bring down. Hamas is in people’s minds; in their heads.
“Those who support Hamas need to see a future, need to see something that is moving on the political level, need to see that there might be a state in which their children and their grandchildren might prosper.
“What people see today, whether they are Hamas supporters or not, they see darkness and they see destruction all over. They see violation of rights. They are helpless and hopeless. People need to see things are moving forward, and once that happens, there will be a shift in the mood, and they will look for a better future.”
But just as the Palestinians prepare to welcome recognition, Aghabekian said the West Bank was facing financial collapse as Israel continues to withhold hundreds of millions of dollars of tax revenue that, under a 30-year-old agreement, it collects on the Palestinian Authority’s behalf.
Israel has retained a proportion of the money since the start of the war in Gaza, but, encouraged by finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, it has recently withheld a much higher amount.
“People have not been paid, civil servants are only receiving small parts of their salaries. We can’t buy medical supplies, equipment, you name it,” said Aghabekian.
“How can a government run a country under such conditions? So yes, we are very worried.”
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