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The global temperature is set to break a key temperature limit for the first time within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned.

There is now a 66% chance of breaching a global average temperature 1.5C at least once between now and 2027 – which would mark the first time in human history.

Almost every country in the world has committed to trying to limit warming to ideally only 1.5C above levels in pre-industrial times.

Nations did this when they signed the historic Paris climate agreement at the COP21 climate conference, in a bid to keep the dangerous impacts of climate change, like floods, rising sea levels and droughts, more manageable.

Breaching 1.5C, while alarming, would not mean the world had permanently surpassed the threshold, scientists stress.

A crumbling 1.5C target could embolden big polluters


Hannah Thomas-Peter

Hannah Thomas-Peter

Climate change and energy correspondent

@hannahtpsky

Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, the climate change narrative has focused on efforts to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.

At successive UN climate summits, the language may have shifted a little, from keeping it within reach to keeping it alive, to not letting it die – but 1.5C has been a hugely symbolic center of gravity around which the vast majority of discussions have rotated.

Now, for the first time, scientists say it is more likely that not that this barrier will be breached in the coming five years.

They have stressed that this is worrying but temporary and that the temperature could be brought down over the long term by a sharp decrease in emissions.

But this is the kind of moment that keeps those engaged in the battle against climate change up at night.

Because the very worst thing that could happen to policymakers and climate diplomats fighting to keep consensus in a warming world, is that this hard-fought shared goal, a rare common value, starts to crumble.

If the international community starts to believe that 1.5 is gone, there will be space for big polluters, national and commercial, to wriggle away from obligations and to slow progress, at a time when the planet can least afford it.

The global average temperature would need to exceed 1.5C many more times before the climate can be said to have permanently warmed to that level.

But it is a sign the world is getting closer, and that humanity’s attempt to reign in climate change, which is caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, may have been too small and too slow.

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Dr Leon Hermanson of the Met Office Hadley Centre, one of the experts who led the report, said: “We have never crossed 1.5C. The current record is 1.28C.

“It’s very likely we’re going to exceed that, we might even reach 1.5C – it’s more likely than not that we will.

“It’s not this long-term warming that the Paris Agreement talks about, but it is an indication that as we start having these years, with 1.5C happening more and more often, we’re getting closer and closer to having the actual long-term climate being on that threshold.”

There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean average will exceed the 1.5C threshold.

The world has already warmed by around 1.1C at least.

The WMO also said there is a 98% chance of the hottest year on record being broken during that time.

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Is Spain too hot for tourists? By the late afternoon, April temperatures in Andalucia built towards nearly 40C (104F)

Dr Hermanson said the record will likely come from a combination of greenhouse gases and a naturally-occurring weather event known as El Nino, which is a heating of the eastern Pacific which affects rainfall and temperatures globally.

The WMO said that its opposite – La Nina – has been cooling atmospheric temperatures for much of the last three years, but this has now ended.

Usually, El Nino raises global temperatures the year after it develops. So scientists are expecting temperatures to rise in 2024.

The WMO general secretary Professor Petteri Taalas said: “A warming El Nino is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.

“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”

The United Nation’s climate science body the IPCC has said every increment of warming brings more damage to people and wildlife – it’s not a cliff edge at 1.5C, but a more desirable threshold.

Current plans to reduce greenhouse gases put the world on course for around 2.4C of warming by the end of this century, according to a leading climate consortium, Climate Action Tracker.

Watch The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3pm and 7.30pm on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, and on YouTube and Twitter.

The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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Asian stock markets tumble – with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng suffering worst fall for 28 years

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Asian stock markets tumble - with Hong Kong's Hang Seng suffering worst fall for 28 years

Asian stock markets have fallen dramatically amid escalating fears of a global trade war – as Donald Trump called his tariffs “medicine” and showed no sign of backing down.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index of shares closed down 13.2% – its biggest one-day drop since 1997, while the Shanghai composite index lost 7.3% – the worst fall there since 2020.

Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 7.8%, while London’s FTSE 100 was down 4.85% by 9am.

Tariffs latest – FTSE falls after Asian markets tumble

US stock market futures signalled further losses were ahead when trading begins in America later.

At 4am EST, the S&P 500 futures was down 4.93%, the Dow Jones 4.32% and the Nasdaq 5.33%.

Markets are reacting to ongoing uncertainty over the impact of President Trump’s tariff regime on goods imported to the US, which he announced last week.

A screen displaying the Hang Seng stock, in central Hong Kong. Pic: Reuters
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A screen showing the Hang Seng index in central Hong Kong. Pic: Reuters

Speaking on Air Force One on Sunday, Mr Trump said foreign governments would have to pay “a lot of money” to lift his tariffs.

“I don’t want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” he said.

The US president said world leaders were trying to convince him to lower further tariffs, which are due to come into effect this week.

“I spoke to a lot of leaders, European, Asian, from all over the world,” Mr Trump told reporters.

“They’re dying to make a deal. And I said, we’re not going to have deficits with your country.

“We’re not going to do that because to me, a deficit is a loss. We’re going to have surpluses or, at worst, going to be breaking even.”

Mr Trump, who spent much of the weekend playing golf in Florida, posted on his Truth Social platform: “WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won’t be easy.”

Reality hits that trade war no longer just a threat

China’s announcement of its tariff retaliation came late afternoon on Friday local time.

Most Asian markets closed shortly after – and markets in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan were closed for a public holiday – meaning the scale of the hit did not play out until today.

This morning we are getting a sense of the impact. Dramatic falls across all Asian markets clearly signal a realisation a global trade war is no longer just a threat, but a reality here to stay, and a global recession could yet follow.

Up until Friday, China’s response to Donald Trump’s tariffs had been perceived as restrained and designed to avoid escalation, the markets had reacted accordingly.

But that all changed last week when Mr Trump’s new 34% levy on all Chinese goods was matched by China with an identical tax. Both sit on top of previous tariffs levied, meaning many goods now face rates in excess of 50%.

These are numbers that make most trade between the world’s two biggest economies almost impossible and that will have a global impact.

China has clearly decided any forthcoming pain will have to be managed, and not being seen to be cowed and bullied by Mr Trump is being deemed more important.

But the scale of the retaliation will have further spooked the markets as it makes the prospect of negotiation and retreat increasingly unlikely.

Mr Trump added to the atmosphere of intransigence when he told the media on Sunday the trade deficit with China would need to be addressed before any deal could be done. The complete lack of concern from the White House over the weekend will also not have helped.

While smaller economies like Japan, South Korea, Cambodia and Vietnam are all lining up to attempt to negotiate, there are a lot of nations in that queue.

There is a sense none of this will be easily rectified.

On Saturday, US customs agents began collecting Mr Trump’s baseline 10% tariff.

Higher “reciprocal” tariffs of between 11% and 50% – depending on the country – are due to come into effect on Wednesday.

President Trump believes his policy will ultimately make the US richer, creating jobs and forcing companies to relocate more of their manufacturing to America.

However, his announcement has jolted economies around the world, triggered retaliatory levies from China and sparked fears of a global trade war.

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Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know

Investors and world leaders are unsure whether the US tariffs are here to stay or a negotiating tactic to win concessions from other countries.

Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm, said: “I guess there was some hope over the weekend that maybe we would see this as part of the start of a negotiation.

“But the messages that we’ve so far seen suggest that the President Trump is comfortable with the market reaction and that he’s going to continue on this course.

Goldman Sachs has raised the odds of a US recession to 45%, joining other investment banks that have also revised forecasts.

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In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer has promised “bold changes” and said he would relax rules around electric vehicles as British carmakers deal with a new 25% US tariff on vehicles.

The prime minister said “global trade is being transformed” by President Trump’s actions.

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‘Nothing off the table’ over tariffs

Meanwhile, KPMG warned tariffs on UK exports could see GDP growth fall to 0.8% in 2025 and 2026.

The accountancy firm said higher tariffs on specific categories, such as cars, aluminium and steel, would more than offset the exemption on pharmaceutical exports, leaving the effective tariff rate on UK exports around 12%.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “Given the economic impact that tariffs would cause, there is a strong incentive to seek a negotiated settlement that diminishes the need for tariffs.

“The UK automotive manufacturing sector is particularly exposed given the complex supply chains of some producers.”

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Pope appears before cheering crowds at Vatican for first time since hospital stay

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Pope appears before cheering crowds at Vatican for first time since hospital stay

The Pope has appeared before cheering crowds at the Vatican.

It was the pontiff’s first official public appearance since he was released from hospital a fortnight ago.

Pope Francis, 88, had spent five weeks in Rome’s Gemelli hospital as he was treated by doctors for a life-threatening bout of double pneumonia.

The Pope, in what was a previously unannounced move, entered St Peter’s Square in a wheelchair shortly before noon local time at the end of the celebration of a mass for the Catholic Church’s Jubilee year.

Pope Francis arrives at the end of a mass in St Peter's Square. Pic: AP
Image:
The pontiff arrives at the end of a mass. Pic: AP

In front of the main altar for the service, Francis waved to applauding crowds, before briefly talking.

Speaking in a frail voice while receiving oxygen via a small hose under his nose, he said: “Happy Sunday to everyone. Thank you so much.”

A message prepared by the Pope and released by the Vatican said he felt the “caring touch” of God.

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“On the day of the jubilee of the sick and the world of healthcare, I ask the Lord that this touch of his love may reach those who suffer and encourage those who care for them,” said the message.

“And I pray for doctors, nurses and health workers, who are not always helped to work in adequate conditions and are sometimes even victims of aggression.”

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Pope Francis is cheered by crowds at the end of a mass in St Peter's Square. Pic: AP
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Pope Francis is cheered by crowds on Sunday. Pic: AP

Francis had been out of public view since 23 March, when he had given a short greeting before being discharged from hospital.

The pontiff’s voice sounded stronger this time than when he addressed well-wishers outside Gemelli and struggled to speak.

Francis usually offers a weekly noon-time prayer in St Peter’s Square on Sundays.

But he has not been able to do this since 9 February, before going to hospital.

He was admitted to Gemelli on 14 February for a bout of bronchitis that developed into double pneumonia.

This is a particularly serious condition for him as he had pleurisy as a young adult and had part of one lung removed.

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IDF says it mistakenly identified Gaza aid workers as threat – after video of deadly attack emerges

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IDF says it mistakenly identified Gaza aid workers as threat - after video of deadly attack emerges

The IDF says it mistakenly identified a convoy of aid workers as a threat – following the emergence of a video which proved their ambulances were clearly marked when Israeli troops opened fire on them.

The bodies of 15 aid workers – including eight medics working for the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) – were found in a “mass grave” after the incident, according to the head of the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Jonathan Whittall.

The Israeli military originally claimed an investigation found the vehicles did not have any headlights or emergency signals and were therefore targeted as they looked “suspicious”.

But video footage obtained by the PRCS, and verified by Sky News, showed the ambulances and a fire vehicle clearly marked with flashing red lights.

In a briefing from the IDF, it said the ambulances arrived in the Tel Sultan neighbourhood in Rafah shortly after a Hamas police vehicle drove through.

Palestinians mourn medics, who came under Israeli fire while on a rescue mission, after their bodies were recovered, according to the Red Crescent, at Nasser hospital in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip March 31, 2025. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled/File Photo
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Palestinians mourning the medics after their bodies were recovered. Pic: Reuters

An IDF surveillance aircraft was watching the movement of the ambulances and notified troops on the ground. The IDF said it will not be releasing that footage.

When the ambulances arrived, the soldiers opened fire, thinking the medics were a threat, according to the IDF.

The soldiers were surprised by the convoy stopping on the road and several people getting out quickly and running, the IDF claimed, adding the soldiers were unaware the suspects were in fact unarmed medics.

An Israeli military official would not say how far away troops were when they fired on the vehicles.

The IDF acknowledged that its statement claiming that the ambulances had their lights off was incorrect, and was based on the testimony from the soldiers in the incident.

The newly emerged video footage showed that the ambulances were clearly identifiable and had their lights on, the IDF said.

The IDF added that there will be a re-investigation to look into this discrepancy.

Analysis: Video undermines Israel’s account of aid worker deaths

The clip is filmed through a vehicle windscreen - with three red light vehicles visible in front
Image:
The clip is filmed through a vehicle windscreen – with three red light vehicles visible in front

Addressing the fact the aid workers’ bodies were buried in a mass grave, the IDF said in its briefing this is an approved and regular practice to prevent wild dogs and other animals from eating the corpses.

The IDF could not explain why the ambulances were also buried.

The IDF said six of the 15 people killed were linked to Hamas, but revealed no detail to support the claim.

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Bodies of aid workers found in Gaza

The newly emerged footage of the incident was discovered on a phone belonging to one of the workers who was killed, PRCS president Dr Younis Al Khatib said.

“His phone was found with his body and he recorded the whole event,” he said. “His last words before being shot, ‘Forgive me, mom. I just wanted to help people. I wanted to save lives’.”

Sky News used an aftermath video and satellite imagery to verify the location and timing of the newly emerged footage of the incident.

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Aid worker attacks increasing

It was filmed on 23 March north of Rafah and shows a convoy of marked ambulances and a fire-fighting vehicle travelling south along a road towards the city centre. All the vehicles visible in the convoy have their flashing lights on.

The footage was filmed early in the morning, with a satellite image seen by Sky News taken at 9.48am local time on the same day showing a group of vehicles bunched together off the road.

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