These under-the-radar players could decide the Western Conference finals
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Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter
Now that the Western Conference finals between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights has finally arrived (Game 1, 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+), there is a strong chance you’re going to hear a few familiar names.
If it’s a conversation about the Stars? Expect to hear a lot about Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz, Jake Oettinger, Joe Pavelski and Jason Robertson. When the discussion shifts to the Golden Knights, players like Jack Eichel, William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Alex Pietrangelo, Chandler Stephenson and Shea Theodore will be hard to ignore.
An argument can also be had that Ivan Barbashev, Max Domi, Wyatt Johnston, Tyler Seguin, Reilly Smith and whoever starts in goal for the Golden Knights will get similar treatment.
But what about those under-the-radar players who could serve in key roles in which the winner gets a trip to the Stanley Cup Final and the loser starts summer vacation? Here’s a look at the players for the Golden Knights and the Stars who may not be among the first names mentioned, but their contributions could prove crucial to their respective teams’ success.
Going into the trade deadline, a little more than 66% of the Stars’ goals came from six players. That’s what led to them trading for Domi and Dadonov. The fact Domi scored 18 goals and had 49 points in 60 games with the Chicago Blackhawks made him the focal points when compared to Dadonov, who arrived with four goals and 18 points in 50 games with the Montreal Canadiens. Dadonov had three goals and 12 assists after coming to Dallas, giving him 15 points in 23 games. In the postseason, his four goals and nine points in 13 games has given the Stars the depth they were seeking. Five of those points came in the second round, including the assist he had on Johnston’s game-winning goal in Game 7.
Then there’s the fact that Dadonov along with Benn and Johnston have logged the most 5-on-5 ice time of any Stars’ line combination in the postseason, according to Natural Stat Trick. They’ve played nearly 132 minutes together, which is 45 minutes more than the Hintz-Seguin-Robertson line has seen in 5-on-5 play. A pending unrestricted free agent, Dadonov is making a strong case for the Stars to re-sign him or why another team could seek his services. Especially if he can parlay his success into the conference final against one of his former employers.
Drafting and developing homegrown talent is at the heart of the Stars’ success, and it’s another reason Harley’s performances are important. Just look at what he did in the second-round series victory against the Seattle Kraken. Harley went from scoring zero points in the first round against the Minnesota Wild to seven points in as many games versus the Kraken. His strongest performance came in Game 4 when he finished with a goal and an assist in the Stars’ 6-3 win to tie the series before going back to Dallas.
His seven points are the second-most of any Stars’ defenseman and just two behind Heiskanen. All of his points have come in 5-on-5 play with Harley serving as a third-pairing option. His production gives the Stars another layer and shows why they were not willing to part with him or any of their prospects ahead of the trade deadline. The internal belief within the Stars front office is they knew Harley could help them at some point in the playoffs. And so far? He’s doing just that.
Esa Lindell, D
A Finnish player having success with the Stars? Who knew? Lindell might only have two points, but he’s averaging more than 21 minutes per game which ranks third among Stars defensemen this postseason. He’s operating in a second-pairing role alongside fellow Finn Jani Hakanpää, who could also make a case for being one of those under-the-radar players who could have an impact in the conference finals.
Several factors have led to the Stars being four wins away from the Stanley Cup Final. Their penalty kill is one of those reasons. It’s the No. 3 short-handed unit in the postseason with an 83.3 success rate. Lindell leads them in short-handed ice time, with Hakanpää 20 seconds behind, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud, D
Everyone else gets a separate mention, so, why not Hague and Whitecloud? Simple. Because they’ve done nearly everything else together this postseason in a manner that most might have overlooked. The big one? Guess what defensive pairing has logged the most 5-on-5 ice time for the Golden Knights this postseason? Yeah, it’s them. In fact, Natural Stat Trick has them 10th among all defensive pairings in 5-on-5 ice time. Pietrangelo’s suspension played a part in why he and Alec Martinez don’t lead the team. Although, there is another statistic that reinforces the value of their partnership. Opponents have only scored three times in 5-on-5 play when Hague and Whitecloud have played together. That’s tied with Carolina Hurricanes duo Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin for the fewest goals allowed this postseason among pairings with at least 150 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time. It’s another reason Hague leads them in 5-on-5 ice time while Whitecloud is third.
Brett Howden, F
Stephenson has emerged as one of the NHL’s premier No. 2 centers while Stone, when healthy, is a two-way winger who creates problems. Together, they have created one of the more versatile combinations in the league. Howden is the third member of that group, and has used these playoffs to justify his role as a top-nine winger. They played more than 67 minutes together in 5-on-5 ice time, according to Natural Stat Trick. But that also comes with the caveat Stone was limited to 43 games after having a second back surgery in less than a year. In the playoffs? Cassidy has used the Howden-Stephenson-Stone line more than any other combination, with the trio playing nearly 95 minutes together in 5-on-5 situations.
Howden has five points in 11 games, a strong return for a player who had 13 total points in 54 regular-season games. Howden was also part of the Golden Knights’ penalty kill, a role he has retained with the sixth-most short-handed minutes among Golden Knights forwards this postseason.
Nicolas Roy, F
Coaches are always making adjustments in an attempt to find an edge. Cassidy is no different and it’s why of the top eight combinations he’s used in the playoffs, Roy has been a part of three of them. Roy, who largely played in a bottom-six role this year, was part of the 12 players who finished with more than 10 regular-season goals.
A bottom-six forward with consecutive seasons of more than 14 goals shows why the Golden Knights are among the NHL’s deepest teams. When they use Roy at center, he gives them a spine down the middle that starts with Eichel, Stephenson and Karlsson before it ends with him. When they push him to the wing, he provides them with a third-line combination that also features Karlsson and Smith. Together, the three of them present the Golden Knights with a two-way line that can forecheck, force turnovers and create scoring chances in the other direction. Possessing that sort of versatility is also how Roy has worked his way into receiving minutes on the penalty kill and power play.
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Rachel Doerrie
There are late-round gems in every NHL draft class that go on to have impactful careers. With the increase in scouting coverage and analytics, teams do a better job of drafting those players earlier, but inevitably, a few of these late-round diamonds in the rough emerge.
Gone are the days of getting Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Lundqvist or Brett Hull in the late rounds. However, smaller players who possess skill seem to be drafted much later. The reigning Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson is hardly a late-round pick — he went 62nd overall in 2022 — but he should’ve been selected a lot earlier.
Some recent late-round gems include Troy Terry (No. 148 in 2015), Andrew Mangiapane (No. 166, 2015), Jesper Bratt (No. 162, 2016), Brandon Hagel (No. 159, 2016) and Mark Stone (No. 178, 2010). There were concerns about all of them in the draft process, whether it was size, skating or questions about the translatability of their game to the NHL. But each has far exceeded their draft expectations and gone on to represent their country on the international stage. Your draft slot does not make or break you. The earlier picks will get more chances while the later picks have to earn their looks, but there is a pathway to success.
The common denominator in a late-round pick’s success is that they are elite in at least one category; or as one NHL executive put it, “they possess a separating skill that differentiates them from others.”
This year, there are a few players who may end up as the diamonds in the rough. Generally speaking, a player drafted after the third round has a less than 3% chance of playing 200 games in the NHL, which means it is likely that only four or five players drafted after pick No. 96 will make it. There is a less than 1.5% chance of that player becoming an impact player, goaltenders not included. The darts at the board are worth throwing, but a few players in this class have separating skills that may give them a better chance.
Cameron Schmidt, RW, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
While Schmidt is rated much higher in public rankings — and remained a first-rounder in those rankings for the majority of the season — NHL teams with which I spoke do not view him in the same light. Many scouts believe Schmidt will be selected between the third and fifth rounds because he’s much smaller than the average NHL player at 5-foot-7.
Still, Schmidt’s ceiling as a second-line scoring winger in the vein of Alex Debrincat should excite teams. It is understandable that teams would be hesitant to select a player of his stature with an early pick because of the rarity of success for player shorter than 5-9. Schmidt is arguably the fastest player in the draft, with an elite shot. He has more than one “separating skill” that scouts look for, with one opining that if he were 6-1, he may be in the conversation for being picked in the 10-15 range.
Netting 40 goals in 61 games makers him one of the best goal scorers available in the draft. He can score multiple ways; off the rush in stride, on one-timers, by net-front finishing and a smooth but powerful catch and release. There is a high likelihood that Schmidt leads the CHL in goals over the next two seasons with his separating speed and well-rounded finishing ability.
Debrincat is 5-8, and if Schmidt grows to that height or even 5-9, there’s a real chance he becomes a reliable goal-scorer at the NHL level. Instead of drafting for physicality and size, taking a chance that someone grows who already possesses elite talent could be very rewarding for a team.
Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln Stars (USHL)
A defenseman who is nearly 6-7 with punishing physical traits and the potential to become a shutdown defender will be very attractive to teams. Rombach lacks a lot of the offensive skill that teams like to see in their top-end defenseman, but there is a real path to becoming a No. 4/5 defender in the NHL.
Defensively, he possesses one of the most complete skill sets in the draft, which will only improve as he refines those skills. He has impressive puck-retrieval ability, scanning for threats and allowing him to pre-emptively escape pressure situations. He employs head fakes to shake forecheckers, and makes a simple and efficient pass when the lane opens.
When defending, he uses his frame to disrupt plays on the rush, kill plays on the wall and makes it difficult for teams to generate off the cycle. He isn’t overly physical, and while that is easily developable at his size, scouts like that he doesn’t get caught out of position trying to make a big hit. When he closes gaps on players all over the ice, he leads with a strong stick and smothers them, forcing turnovers or dump-ins.
If his skating and physicality improve, Rombach has the tool kit to be an effective shutdown defender who can kill penalties and play secondary matchups.
David Bedkowski, D, Oshawa Generals (OHL)
The old-school hockey types love Bedkowski because he loves physicality. He is a throwback in the sense that he lives for the violence. A menacing defenseman at nearly 6-5 and 215 pounds, Bedkowski is the most punishing defender in the draft class. While that doesn’t always equate to NHL success, the Florida Panthers‘ blueprint will surely have executives thinking about Bedkowski’s ability to play highly effective transition defense while inflicting significant pain on opponents with his physical play.
He is one of the best zone-entry defenders in the draft class, and if he can pick his spots a little better in terms of stepping up to make contact, there is a path to becoming an effective bottom-pair defender.
His ceiling isn’t high in terms of becoming a No. 4/5 guy, but teams need depth and brute force to win in the playoffs, and Bedkowski may develop into a defenseman who can reliably provide that.
Viktor Klingsell, LW, Skelleftea AIK (J20)
Another candidate to be a steal in the later rounds is world under-18 championships standout Klingsell. He didn’t produce at the level Jesper Bratt did in Sweden, but he outperformed Bratt when playing against his peers. Given the similarity in height, the high-end playmaking and vision, it isn’t surprising to see some believe Klingsell could be a “Bratt lite” in the NHL. He lacks physicality — which isn’t particularly surprising given his stature — but his instincts and offensive tool kit are amongst the best available among European skaters.
The main concern is his pace. Klingsell has a boom-or-bust type of profile. If he hits, he’ll be a second-line offensive facilitator who notches 50-plus assists every year. If he doesn’t, he’s likely to become a very good SHL player. That is the type of swing you take in the later rounds, especially when speed is the concern. But it is much easier to develop skating and speed than it is to find a player with the natural offensive instincts and playmaking capabilities that Klingsell possesses.
Filip Ekberg, LW, Ottawa 67’s (OHL)
Another Swede with a chance to make a team very happy is dual-threat forward Ekberg. The first half of the season was plagued by illness and a limited role. As the calendar flipped, Ekberg’s play took off, culminating in a standout performance at the U18s, where he tallied 18 points in seven games and earned himself an invite to Sweden’s World Junior summer team.
There is real reason to believe Ekberg is on the cusp of a major scoring breakout in the OHL that would vault his projection to a middle-six scorer at the NHL level.
Ekberg is a well-rounded forward anticipates and reads the play, facilitates offense and owns an excellent catch and release. He lacks dynamism that you’d like to see, but showed legitimate flashes of ability when healthy at the U18s. If he can improve his skating, he has all the hallmarks of a smaller player who can succeed in the NHL, in a secondary scoring and power-play role.
Aidan Lane, RW, Saint Andrew’s College/Brampton Steelheads (OHL)
If not for a standout performance in the OHL at the end of the season, Lane’s NHL projection would not exist. The CHL/NCAA rule change allowed the Saint Andrew’s College graduate to play the final 13 games in Brampton, where he tallied a point per game.
It is very difficult to project prep school players, as there is limited sample size. However, the high-motor winger looked every bit the part in a top-six role for Brampton. He has a chance to become a power winger in the bottom six at the NHL level, with his strength, physicality and his ability to generate offense.
He was smooth in transition, was able to draw defenders to him and make positive value plays. He was also able to use his physical package to overpower seasoned OHL players. Lane has the motor, physical tools and displayed promising offensive tools that could make him a high value pick beyond the fourth round. His speed and explosiveness will need to improve if he is to effectively use his tools to forecheck and create offence in a secondary role at the NHL level.
Given his chosen path to play in the NCAA at Harvard, he will have plenty of time to develop against the best amateur competition.
L.J. Mooney, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
Another diminutive winger, Mooney is one of my personal favorites in the draft class. He’s a dynamic skater and gets fans out of their seats with his puck handling skill. At 5-7, possessing multiple separating skills should be enough for a team to take a chance on him in the middle rounds.
He’s a non-stop player who is constantly drawing the viewer’s eye. His blistering speed is immediately noticeable, especially when combined with fantastic puck skill. There is real potential for him to become a transition nightmare for defenders. For that to happen, Mooney will need to improve his ability to facilitate offense and read the play. He needs to utilize his elite skating and puck skill to attack the middle of the ice to create high-danger scoring chances.
Given his size and questions about playmaking ability, he’s close to a boom-or-bust player. However, many players with that skill level do not possess the motor and inner drive to compete. Mooney does not leave any doubts about his will to compete given his fearless play, consistent pace, and willingness to play both sides of the puck.
If a team has multiple second- or third-round picks and lacks a dynamic skater, as well as someone who could be a legitimate contributor — the Philadelphia Flyers, Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings are in this boat — Mooney is a worth a shot.
The Dallas Stars have re-signed forward Matt Duchene to a four-year contract worth $18 million.
General manager Jim Nill announced the deal Thursday. Duchene, who would have become an unrestricted free agent July 1, will count $4.5 million against the salary cap through the 2028-29 season.
“We are thrilled to have Matt back with our organization,” Nill said in a statement. “As our team’s leading scorer last season, he helped to solidify our forward group while also providing invaluable leadership off the ice and in the community. The fit with Matt and our team has been seamless from the start, and we’re looking forward to continuing to pursue our shared goal of bringing a championship to Dallas.”
Duchene was a point-per-game scorer — exactly 82 in 82 — in his second season with Dallas. He had just one goal and five assists in 16 playoff games as the Stars reached the Western Conference finals before losing to the Edmonton Oilers.
He had played on one-year, $3 million contracts in each of his two seasons with Dallas.
Duchene, 34, is going into his 17th season in the NHL. He has previously played for Colorado, Columbus, Ottawa and Nashville since making his debut in 2009.
The Associated Press and Field Level Media contributed to this report.
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