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A merchant sells crystal ornaments via a live TikTok broadcast.

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TikTok Shop is a rising threat to major e-commerce players such as Shopee and Lazada in Southeast Asia.

It comes as its parent ByteDance pushes the short video app in markets outside the U.S. and India to create alternative revenue streams.

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TikTok Shop is the e-commerce marketplace of short video app TikTok, which is owned by Chinese tech giant ByteDance. The shopping app enables merchants, brands and creators to showcase and sell their goods to users.

In 2022, TikTok Shop expanded to six Southeast Asian countries — Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand.

“TikTok continues to grow rapidly in Southeast Asian countries. We estimate that TikTok’s 2023 [gross merchandise value] will reach 20%~ of Shopee, which we suggest prompted Shopee to defensively increase sales and marketing since April,” said Shawn Yang, analyst at Blue Lotus Research Institute, in a recent report on Sea Group, the owner of Shopee.

TikTok did not want to comment or reveal numbers.

TikTok Shop’s GMV, or total value of goods sold, skyrocketed more than four times to $4.4 billion in Southeast Asia in 2022, according to internal data obtained by tech media outlet The Information. TikTok Shop is reportedly aiming for a GMV target of $12 billion by 2023.

Impulse buying from watching content is an advantage TikTok has.

Sachin Mittal

Head of telecom & internet sector research, DBS Bank

To be clear, TikTok Shop’s current GMV is only a fraction of Shopee and Lazada’s.

Shopee netted $73.5 billion in GMV in 2022 while Lazada’s GMV was $21 billion for the year through September 2021, according to available public figures.

Rising threat

A TikTok spokesperson told CNBC that TikTok Shop “continues to grow rapidly” as both large and small users use the platform to reach new customers. TikTok is “focused on the continued development of TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia,” said the spokesperson.

As of May, the number of TikTok users in Southeast Asia alone is 135 million, according to market research company Insider Intelligence.

Indonesia has the second largest population of TikTok users after the U.S., according to Statista.

Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s most populous country, where 52% are young people and it has around 113 million TikTok users.

“Impulse buying from watching content is an advantage TikTok has,” Sachin Mittal, head of telecom & internet sector research at DBS Bank, told CNBC.

Sea Group is banking on its e-commerce arm Shopee to lift the group’s balance sheet as its gaming arm Garena continues to see revenue decline, given the lack of a strong games pipeline and the continued ban of its flagship game Free Fire in India due to national security threats.

Shopee is expanding its footprint in Malaysia and continues to build up its Brazil operations after exiting several European and Latin American markets.

TikTok is spending an incredible amount of money right now on incentives to onboard buyers and sellers, which may not be sustainable.

Jonathan Woo

Senior analyst, Phillip Securities Research

A survey conducted by online retail insights company Cube Asia revealed that consumers spending on TikTok Shop are reducing their spending on Shopee (-51%), Lazada (-45%), Offline (-38%) in Indonesia, Thailand, and Philippines.

Shopee and Lazada declined to comment on competition from TikTok Shop.

Data from web analytics firm Similarweb revealed that Shopee is currently the largest online marketplace in Southeast Asia, holding 30% to 50% traffic share across the region in the last three months, while Lazada holds the second spot with 10% to 30% traffic share.

Scrutiny on TikTok

TikTok Shop’s push comes as the app is being scrutinized in its largest market, the U.S., amid rising geopolitical tensions and tech rivalry between China and the U.S.

Last week, the U.S. state of Montana banned TikTok, which could spark other states to suit. TikTok disputed Montana’s allegations that the Chinese government “could access data about TikTok users, and that TikTok exposes minors to harmful online content” in a lawsuit filed Monday to try and reverse the ban.

Banning TikTok at a state level 'doesn't make sense', says Craft Ventures' David Sacks

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew’s testimony before Congress in March did not ease lawmakers’ worries about the app’s connections to China or the adequacy of Project Texas, its contingency plan to store U.S. data on American soil.

TikTok has also been banned in India since 2020, alongside other apps said to have Chinese origin. It is not accessible in China, though its Chinese version Douyin is widely used by over 750 million daily active users.

Not sustainable

Meanwhile, Shopee charges more than 5% on commission, transaction and service fees.

A CNBC check revealed that four-ply toilet paper from Nomieo was selling on TikTok at 5.80 Singapore dollars for twenty-seven rolls. In comparison, the same goods are selling at around SG$16.80 on Shopee.

Woo noted that TikTok Shop is “still very young” and in the “burn-cash-to-grow phase which may not bode well in today’s market given higher cost of funding.”

TikTok Shop is also “just a platform with no end-to-end capabilities” unlike Shopee and Lazada which have been investing heavily in improving logistics for faster deliveries and returns, increasing overall user experience and trust for sellers and buyers, he said.

Overall, I think TikTok Shop has the potential to be as big as Shopee or Lazada, though this might take quite a number of years.

Jonathan Woo

Senior analyst, Phillip Securities Research

It also has a smaller user base at this point in time with a younger demographic which means less spending ability, said Woo.

“I don’t think there’s a big risk to Shopee from TikTok,” said Mittal. “Shopee can afford to lose some market share, but Lazada cannot.”

Lazada has been trying to catch up with Shopee ever since Shopee overtook the company to become Southeast Asia’s biggest e-commerce platform in 2020.

“Overall, I think TikTok Shop has the potential to be as big as Shopee or Lazada, though this might take quite a number of years,” said Woo, noting the gap between TikTok Shop and Shopee’s GMVs.

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How working for Big Tech lost ‘dream job’ status

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How working for Big Tech lost 'dream job' status

Despite blockbuster earnings from giants such as Alphabet and Microsoft, layoffs continue to ripple through the tech industry.

Layoffs.fyi, a platform monitoring job cuts in the tech sector, recorded more than 263,000 job losses in 2023 alone. As of April, there have been more than 75,000 job losses in the industry so far in 2024.

“So instead of rewarding the growth that we saw [tech companies] all pursue years ago, they’re now rewarding profit,” said Jeff Shulman, professor at the University of Washington’s Foster School of Business. “And so the layoffs have continued. People have become used to them. Regrettably and sadly, it seems that the layoffs are going to be the new normal.”

Even though mass tech layoffs continue, the labor market still seems strong. The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March, well above the Dow Jones estimate for a rise of 200,000, with the unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%.

According to Handshake, a popular free job posting site for college students and graduates, the tech layoffs have prompted new workers to seek other opportunities. The share of job applications from tech majors submitted to internet and software companies dropped by more than 30% between November 2021 and September 2023.

“Part of the reason why this is happening is because stability is such a major factor in students’ decisions around what types of jobs they apply to and what types of jobs they accept,” said Christine Cruzverga, chief education strategy officer at Handshake. “They’re looking at the headlines in the news and they’re paying attention to all of the layoffs that are happening in Big Tech, and that makes them feel unstable.”

Mass layoffs have eroded the shine of the tech industry, which is why workers are questioning whether getting a job in the tech industry should still be regarded as a “dream job.”

“For the people who are chasing … a tech dream job, I think keep your options open and be realistic,” said Eric Tolotti, senior partner engineer at Snowflake, who got laid off from Microsoft in 2023. “Don’t just focus on one company and feel like you have to get into that one company because it’s the dream.”

Watch the video to learn about tech workers’ sentiments, considerations for aspiring Big Tech employees, and more.

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Digital ad market is finally on the mend, bouncing back from the ‘dark days’ of 2022

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Digital ad market is finally on the mend, bouncing back from the 'dark days' of 2022

A view of Google Headquarters in Mountain View, California, United States on March 23, 2024. 

Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu | Getty Images

Advertising is so back.

After a brutal 2022, when brands reeled in spending to cope with inflation, and a 2023 defined by layoffs and cost cuts, the top digital advertising companies have started growing again at a healthy clip.

Meta, Snap and Google all reported first-quarter results this week, with revenue growth that exceeded analysts estimates and at rates not seen in at least two years. Their financials were primarily driven by improvements across their ad businesses.

The companies entered earnings season in a favorable position in that their numbers would be comparable to historically weak periods. But investors and analysts were cautious in their expectations, given the political and economic instability in various markets across the globe and the ongoing challenges posed by high consumer prices.

Meta, which was the first in the group to report results, put some fears to rest on Wednesday, showing a 27% jump in first-quarter revenue to $36.5 billion. For the Facebook parent, it was the strongest rate of expansion since 2021.

“When Meta was in its dark days two years ago, the company knew what they had to do to get back on track,” analysts at Bernstein wrote in a note after the earnings report. “To their credit, Meta defended the core.”

That dark era was defined by the combination of macroeconomic challenges and Apple’s iOS privacy change, which made it harder for social media companies to target users with ads. Meta lost two-thirds of its value in 2022 and was forced to dramatically cut headcount.

A smartphone is displaying Facebook with the Meta icon visible in the background.

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Meta responded by rebuilding its ad system, with the help of hefty investments in artificial intelligence, so it could deliver value to brands despite the roadblock imposed by Apple. The stock almost tripled in 2023.

While the company’s first-quarter results beat estimates across the board, the shares tanked on Thursday after CEO Mark Zuckerberg focused his post-earnings commentary on the many ways Meta is spending money in areas outside of advertising, notably the metaverse.

“We’ve historically seen a lot of volatility in our stock during this phase of our product playbook where we’re investing in scaling a new product but aren’t yet monetizing it,” Zuckerberg said on the earnings call late Wednesday.

The Bernstein analysts, who recommend buying the shares, said Meta’s ad revenues were led by strength in online commerce, gaming, entertainment and media, and that China-based ad demand “remained strong.” Meta has benefited from a surge in spending from Chinese discount retailers like Temu and Shein.

“Without sounding overly religious, you either believe in Zuck or you don’t, and we do,” the analysts wrote.

‘Incrementally positive’

Alphabet followed on Thursday, reporting ad revenue for the first quarter of $61.66 billion, up 13% from the year prior, with YouTube ad revenue jumping 21% to $8.09 billion. The company as a whole grew 15%, a rate last seen in 2022, and the stock shot up 10% on Friday, the sharpest rally since 2015.

During the quarterly call with investors, Alphabet finance chief Ruth Porat said the company is “very pleased” with the momentum of its ad businesses.

Analysts at Citi wrote in a note on Friday that the broader advertising environment is “clearly strengthening,” pointing to accelerating growth within Google Search and YouTube.

“We emerge from Q1 results incrementally positive on shares of Alphabet,” the analysts wrote, maintaining their buy recommendation.

Snap shares rocketed 28% on Friday after the company reported a 21% increase in revenue to $1.19 billion, the strongest growth in two years. In each of Snap’s past six quarters, sales either grew in single digits or declined.

The company said it’s seeing accelerating demand for its ad platform and benefiting from an improved operating environment, according to its investor letter.

Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a report on Friday that Snap delivered a “much-needed” beat, and that its ad stack is back on track. The analysts, who have a buy rating on the stock, said investors appear “most encouraged by the ad platform investments, which are showing increasing promise.”

Despite the rally, Snap shares are still down 14% for the year.

Investors will get a clearer picture of the digital ad market next week, with Pinterest reporting on Tuesday alongside Amazon, which has emerged as a giant in online ads. Reddit will follow on May 7, reporting earnings for the first time since the social media company’s initial public offering in March.

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Snap shares rocket 28% after company reports unexpected profit, better-than-expected revenue

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Snap shares rocket 28% after company reports unexpected profit, better-than-expected revenue

A view of the atmosphere during the Snap Partner Summit 2023 at Barker Hangar on April 19, 2023 in Santa Monica, California. 

Joe Scarnici | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Snap shares surged 28% on Friday after the company surprised Wall Street by showing a profit and reported sales and user numbers that exceeded analysts’ estimates.

The stock climbed $3.15 to close at $14.55, its biggest percentage gain since 2022. Even after the rally, the stock is down 14% for the year due to a 31% plunge in February.

Revenue in the first quarter increased 21% to $1.19 billion from $989 million a year earlier, topping analysts’ estimates for sales of $1.12 billion, according to LSEG.

The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 3 cents, while analysts were expecting a 5-cent loss. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $46 million, compared to analysts’ expectations for a loss of $68 million.

Snap said adjusted EBITDA “exceeded our expectations” and was primarily driven by operating expense discipline, as well as accelerating revenue growth.

Snap has been working to rebuild its advertising business after the digital ad market stumbled in 2022. Its investments are starting to pay off. The company said in its investor letter that revenue growth was primarily driven by improvements in the advertising platform, as well as demand for its direct-response advertising solutions. 

“I think more broadly, we saw a much more robust brand environment, which played out in all of our regions in Q1,” CFO Derek Andersen said on the earnings call.

User growth was also better than expected. Snap reported 422 million daily active users (DAUs) in the first quarter, up 10% year over year and topping the average analyst estimate of 420 million, according to StreetAccount.

In February, Snap announced it would lay off 10% of its global workforce, or around 500 employees. The company said Thursday that headcount and personnel costs will “grow modestly” through the rest of the year. 

Advertising revenue came in at $1.11 billion in the first quarter. Snap’s “Other Revenue” category, which is primarily driven by Snapchat+ subscribers, reached $87 million, an increase of 194% year over year. Snap reported more than 9 million Snapchat+ subscribers for the period.

Though Snap’s growth was its fastest since March 2022, it still fell behind that of Meta, which reported 27% growth in its better-than-expected first-quarter results on Wednesday. Meta shares plunged anyway after the company issued a light forecast and spooked investors with talk of its long-term investments.

For the second quarter, Snap expects to report revenue between $1.23 billion and $1.26 billion, up from the $1.22 billion expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.

WATCH: Watch CNBC’s full interview with Snap CEO Evan Spiegel

Watch CNBC's full interview with Snap CEO Evan Spiegel

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