We all know Donald Trump loves a tariff. Not long ago he said it was his favourite word in the English language.

But one thing that might perplex people somewhat is why he is quite so keen on imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada. After all, in his first term, his main focus when it came to trade was China.

It was under Donald Trump that swingeing new tariffs were imposed on China and Vietnam (often seen as a backdoor conduit for Chinese goods). Canada and Mexico, on the other hand, got a brand new trade deal to take the place of the long-standing NAFTA agreement.

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So what changed? While the president has talked repeatedly about how the tariffs will deter Mexico and Canada from sending opioids into the US, a more compelling explanation comes when you look at the American trade data.

There you see that since those tariffs were imposed in his first term, imports from China to the US have fallen quite considerably. Meanwhile, imports from Mexico and Canada have risen sharply, with Mexico now overtaking China as the biggest importer into the US.

If there’s one thing Donald Trump hates, about as much as he loves tariffs, it’s trade deficits – where you import more goods from a country than you export. Economists see deficits as an inevitable function of being a modern developed economy; Trump sees them as a kind of punishment – a subsidy for foreign countries.

Trump’s odd way of looking at the world

This is, to put it lightly, an odd way of looking at the world. While there are very legitimate concerns about the structure of the US economy, its inability to build its manufacturing sector and the impact of Chinese manufacturing overcapacity on the rest of the world, seeing all deficits as inherently bad is bizarre. Nonetheless, if you view the world that way, you won’t like the look of the US trade position with Mexico.

Look at those numbers and you see that the trade deficit has ballooned in recent years – and not just because of America sucking up lots of Mexican oil. The US is also importing far more cars from Mexico than it sends there.

That is, to a large extent, a function of that free trade deal, which has encouraged car manufacturers (including some American manufacturers) to assemble their cars in Mexico. However, there are also suspicions that the Mexican deficit with the US is, to some extent, a function of the way the global trading system has shifted in the past half-decade.

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Where once goods would flow directly from China to the US, there’s evidence to suggest many of them are instead flowing, mostly in the form of components, to “third countries”, including Mexico, and then being assembled into finished products and sent into the US. And this process might accelerate in the coming years.

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Look at the number of cars flowing from China to Mexico in recent years and it’s rising rapidly.

All of which is to say, there are some intriguing dynamics in international trade which have raised eyebrows in the White House.

What’s going to happen?

What would the impact of tariffs be? Well, most economic models suggest they would lift inflation and reduce economic growth. In short, they would be bad – especially if levied on nearly all goods.

But, this being Donald Trump, there are still big questions about precisely how these tariffs would actually be applied. The past few weeks have been chaotic for the normally dull world of trade economics. The coming years will be more chaotic still.

A new research study has examined the mathematical principles governing creativity and innovation, shedding light on how novel ideas emerge. By analysing data across different domains, researchers have identified patterns that could refine the understanding of how individuals and societies generate new concepts. The study investigates two types of novelty—discovering an entirely new element and forming unique combinations of existing elements. The findings could be crucial in fields such as science, literature, and technology, where innovation plays a vital role in advancement.

Mathematical Framework for Creativity

According to the study published in Nature Communications, researchers introduced a framework to model how new ideas emerge. Led by Professor Vito Latora from Queen Mary University of London, the team focused on higher-order novelties—combinations of familiar elements that create something new. Speaking to Phys.org, Prof. Latora stated that the study is part of a broader effort to understand the mechanisms underlying creativity, aiming to identify factors that contribute to the success of ideas, products, and technologies.

A mathematical model called Edge-Reinforced Random Walk with Triggering (ERRWT) was developed to simulate how people discover and combine elements. Unlike traditional random walks, which assume equal probability for each step, ERRWT strengthens frequently used connections and triggers new links when novel combinations occur. This process mirrors real-world discovery, where repeated exposure to certain elements increases the likelihood of making new associations.

Analysing Patterns Across Domains

The research team applied the ERRWT model to three distinct datasets—music listening habits from Last.fm, literary texts from Project Gutenberg, and scientific publications from Semantic Scholar. The findings revealed that while individuals might have similar rates of discovering new elements, the sequences in which they arrange them differ significantly.

For music listeners, certain users developed unique listening patterns despite discovering the same number of new songs. In literature, writers frequently created new word pairings rather than introducing entirely new words. Scientific papers, particularly titles, demonstrated a higher tendency for novel word combinations compared to narrative texts.

Predicting Innovation with Heaps’ Law

The study also highlighted that the process of novelty creation follows Heaps’ law, a power-law relationship describing how new elements and combinations emerge over time. By applying this principle, researchers could predict different rates of innovation across disciplines. The results indicated that while some fields prioritise the discovery of individual elements, others focus on recombining existing ones in unique ways.

Implications for Future Research

The findings suggest that understanding how creative processes unfold could help refine strategies for fostering innovation. Prof. Latora noted that studying novelty creation is essential for identifying factors that contribute to the rise and decline of trends, products, and ideas. Future research aims to expand the model by incorporating a social component, which could provide insights into how external influences shape creative developments.

The first 100% electric Jeep in the US is finally arriving at showrooms. With the first customer deliveries just around the corner, Jeep confirmed a new Wagoneer S trim will join the lineup in February. Here’s what we know so far.

Meet Jeep’s electric SUV

The Wagoneer S “marks a new chapter in the storied history of Jeep brand,” CEO Antonio Filosa said after unveiling the electric SUV last May.

Jeep launched the Wagoneer S Launch Edition model last year, starting at $71,995. It also teased an off-road “Trailhawk” concept, which is expected to be the newest model in the lineup.

On Friday, Jeep maker Stellantis announced that it will introduce a new Wagoneer S trim at the Chicago Auto Show starting February 8.

Although it’s still clearly a Jeep with the SUV maker’s signature design, the Wagoneer S launch edition gains a new style to distinguish it as electric. One of the most noticeable is the redesigned seven-slot grille, now with ambient cast lighting.

The grille is now closed without the need to cool a massive engine, giving the SUV a sportier, more aerodynamic look. The Launch Edition model also has exclusive dark accent elements like 20″ Gloss Black wheels, trim, and more.

Inside, the electric SUV builds on the most recent Jeep Grand Wagoneer design. It features a “best-in-class” infotainment with 45″ of screen space, including a driver display, navigation, and interactive passenger screen.

The Launch Edition model includes a wine-red-stiched steering wheel, customizable LED lighting, and a 19″ speaker premium McIntosh audio system.

Is Jeep launching the Wagoneer S Trailhawk trim?

According to Filosa, the Trailhawk EV concept “showcases what the all-electric Jeep Wagoneer S lineup is truly capable of, whether cornering tight turns with ease or traversing new ground off the beaten path.”

The Trailhawk model is loaded with rugged upgrades like 31.5″ all-terrain tires, four-wheel-drive, and a lifted suspension for a “go-anywhere, do-anything SUV.” Other added elements like heavy-duty tow hooks and air extractors and function and add to the rugged look.

Jeep claims the rugged electric SUV is the perfect combination of off-road capability, high-speed performance, and an authentic representation of the brand inside and out.

Its distinctive front-end design “tells the tale of an SUV that is designed to drive and thrive on dusty trails and rocky terrain.”

Like the Launch Edition model, the Trailhawk edition features a new illuminated seven-slot grille but with a more rugged look and Storm Gray metallic accents. Other design elements include an anti-glare hood decal, flush badging inspired by modern aircraft, and a laser-cut aluminum roof rack. It even includes a dual-pane panoramic sunroof for that open-air feel.

The interior is “upfitted for adventure” with a redesigned octagonal steering wheel design for more control, a functional cross-car grab bar, “aggressive” front seats, and a new modular cargo management system.

Although range and prices were not revealed for the Trailhawk model, it will be similar to the Launch Edition trim Powered by the STLA Large platform, the Wagoneer S Launch Edition provides over 300 miles range with fast charging (20% to 80%) in as little as 23 minutes.

What do you think of Jeep’s Trailhawk model? Given that this is the only trim Jeep has previewed, it’s likely the trim that will be introduced at the Chicago Auto Show. Check back for more updates closer to the event.