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Will there be a return trip to Dallas for Game 6? Or will there be an extended stay in Las Vegas for the start of the Stanley Cup Final?

Plus, could there be another game that goes into overtime?

These are a few of the questions entering Game 5 of the Western Conference finals between the Dallas Stars and the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ABC and ESPN+) at T-Mobile Arena. A series that has seen three of its four games decided in overtime once again comes with a prize at the end for whoever walks away with the win.

For the Golden Knights, a win would give them their second Western Conference title in the franchise’s six-year history. If the Stars win, they’d force a Game 6 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, knowing that captain Jamie Benn would be eligible to return following his two-game suspension for a cross-check on Golden Knights captain Mark Stone in Game 3.

Now that you know what’s at stake, we’ve put together a guide on what to watch from each team, along with keys to victory from Ryan S. Clark and in-depth statistical analysis from ESPN Stats & Information.

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Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Watch live on ESPN+
Line: VGK -140 | O/U: 5.5

Clark’s paths to victory

Stars must continue to get high-danger chances

What was different for the Stars in Game 4 compared to their three previous contests in the Western Conference finals? How about the fact they had nearly as many high-danger scoring chances in one game as they had in the first three games combined.

No, really. That’s not hyperbole. Dallas had a grand total of 19 high-danger chances in 5-on-5 play in its first three games, according to Natural Stat Trick. Yet in Game 4, the Stars finished with 15 high-danger chances in those 5-on-5 sequences and were able to unlock a portion of the ice that’s been central to the Golden Knights’ playoff success.

Few teams have been stronger than the Golden Knights this postseason when it comes to limiting high-danger chances. They’re allowing 10.5 high-danger chances per 60, again according to Natural Stat Trick. That’s third in the playoffs. Only the Minnesota Wild and the — yeah, you guessed it — Stars have allowed fewer high-danger chances per 60 than the Golden Knights.

It’s what made Jason Robertson‘s two-goal performance quite pivotal. Yes, there’s the fact he now has four goals in this series. But the fact those goals came within 10 feet of the net and one of them came in 5-on-5 play? There’s a chance that what the Stars did in Game 4 could serve as a blueprint for how to find success on Saturday and beyond.

Dallas must receive contributions from more players

Going back to Robertson, this series has seen him find the consistency that eluded him in the conference semifinal series against the Seattle Kraken. He went from zero goals in seven second-round games to scoring four goals through four games of this round.

You might be feeling a “but” coming on and, well, you’re correct. Robertson has scored half of the Stars’ eight goals this series, which once again reignites the conversation about the importance of receiving more offensive contributions beyond one player. On the whole, the Stars have proved they can get goals from everyone in their lineup. It’s why they have had 16 different players score at least one goal.

That’s tied with the Golden Knights for the most individual goal scorers in the playoffs. But it also comes with the understanding they might need more than just Robertson if they want to do more than force a Game 6.

Look at who have been some of the Stars’ biggest contributors. Tyler Seguin, who is fourth on the team in playoff goals, hasn’t scored in his past nine games, and has only one point in that span. Wyatt Johnston, who is tied for fifth in scoring, has not scored a goal or recorded a point in the conference finals. Until his assist in Game 4, Max Domi hadn’t recorded a point in his past four games, while Mason Marchment has one point — a goal — in his past seven games.

Pay attention to the patterns for Vegas

Now that we have a little bit of time, there’s something worth pointing out about the Golden Knights this postseason. They don’t really lose that much. Their Game 4 overtime loss was just the fourth time the Golden Knights have lost this postseason. Furthermore, the Golden Knights have not lost consecutive playoff games this year.

As for what the Golden Knights have done after those losses? Let’s just say there is a pattern within their pattern. They did it to the Winnipeg Jets after losing Game 1 in the first round, and they did it twice to the Edmonton Oilers after losing Games 2 and 4 in the second round.

Here’s how those games have gone. The Golden Knights give up the opening goal within the first 10 minutes of the first period. And while the Golden Knights score a response goal, they’ve actually saved their most emphatic salvos for either the second or third periods, when they have broken out for three goals in a single frame in each of those games.

They put the Jets away with a three-goal third period in Game 2. They did it to the Oilers with a three-goal second period in Game 2 before doing it again with another three-goal second period in Game 5. And for those scoring at home? Seven of those nine goals came in 5-on-5 play — which shows the Golden Knights don’t need the extra-skater advantage to put teams away.

Don’t let Roope Hintz cook … anymore

You may have noticed Roope Hintz in Game 4. How could you not? He is, after all, a hulking 6-foot-3, do-everything center who has been so dominant that in 17 postseason games, he’s one point shy of scoring a third of the points he scored in 73 regular-season games. To repeat: Hintz has 24 points in 17 postseason games, after scoring 75 points in 73 regular-season games.

Hintz had a pair of secondary assists in Game 4 that came with their own significance in that they were his first points since breaking out for three points in Game 1. Given the Golden Knights kept Hintz without a point for two games, what was it that changed in Game 4 that saw him grab two points?

It’s possible it could be a matter of matchups. Natural Stat Trick shows that Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy consistently used his top defensive pairing of Alec Martinez and Alex Pietrangelo in Game 2 as a way of containing Hintz. Martinez logged a little more than 12 minutes against Hintz, while Pietrangelo was just a few seconds shy of 12 minutes against him in Game 2. The Stars’ Finnish dynamo finished that game with two shots and zero points while his line as a whole did not record a single point in 5-on-5 play.

Cassidy used a rotation of defensemen against Hintz and his line in the four-goal win in Game 3, whereas Game 4 saw Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud receive the most ice time against Hintz. Hague had 8:13 in 5-on-5 time against Hintz and his line, with Whitecloud checking in at 7:58. The result was they were on the ice for the game-tying goal in the second period. So, while Hague and Whitecloud are the seventh-most used defensive pairing in 5-on-5 ice time in the playoffs, it is also possible Cassidy could either use them or go back to Martinez and Pietrangelo in an attempt to tap into the success the latter had in Game 2.


Notes from ESPN Stats & Information

Golden Knights

  • Vegas can clinch its second Stanley Cup Final appearance in franchise history (also made it in 2018). The Golden Knights would be the eighth franchise in NHL history to reach the Final multiple times within their first six NHL seasons, following the Edmonton Oilers (three times), St. Louis Blues (three times), New York Rangers (three times), Boston Bruins (three times), original Ottawa Senators (three times), Montreal Maroons (two times) and Toronto Arenas/St. Patricks (two times).

  • Both of Vegas’ goals in Game 4 came from inside of 10 feet. For the series, they’ve seen success when getting to net. Eight of their 13 goals (61.5%) in this series have been within 15 feet.

  • William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault both recorded their eighth goal of the 2023 playoffs in the Game 4 loss. That is tied for the most goals in a single postseason in Golden Knights history with Alex Tuch (2020) and Marchessault (2018).

  • Jack Eichel recorded an assist in Game 4, his 17th point of the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs. That is second most by a U.S.-born skater in his first postseason, behind only Jake Guentzel (21 in 2017).

  • Golden Knights defensemen recorded 15 shots on goal in Game 4, their most in a single game in these playoffs. Game 4 marked the sixth time that the Vegas defense corps recorded at least 10 shots on goal.

  • Adin Hill made 16 saves off the rush in Game 4. He leads all goaltenders in the playoffs with a .973 save percentage on shots coming off the rush, according to Stathletes.


Stars

  • After going 1-for-7 on the power play in the first three games of the series, the Stars went 2-for-2 on the power play in Game 4, including the game winner in overtime. It was the sixth time this postseason Dallas had multiple tallies with the extra skater, and first in its previous seven games.

  • In the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, the Stars are converting 32% of their power-play opportunities, which would be the highest by the franchise in a single postseason since team tracking first began in 1977-78. The current franchise record is 31% by the North Stars in 1983.

  • Jason Robertson recorded his first career multigoal game in the playoffs, giving him 52 goals when combining the regular season and playoffs. In Stars/North Stars franchise history, only Brian Bellows (59 in 1989-90), Dino Ciccarelli (58 in 1981-82) and Mike Modano (57 in 1993-94) have more goals than Robertson’s 52.

  • Jamie Benn was suspended for Game 4 and will be suspended for Game 5 as well. In his place was 26-year-old Fredrik Olofsson, who played just over 10 minutes and had five shots on goal, which was second most behind Jason Robertson’s 11. Olofsson became the third player in the 2023 playoffs to have a game with five shots on goal in 11 minutes of ice time or less, along with Daniel Sprong and Paul Stastny.

  • Roope Hintz recorded two assists to give him a league-leading 24 points this postseason. Hintz’s total is tied for sixth most in a single postseason in franchise history with Brett Hull (24 in 2000) and five away from the franchise record held by Steve Payne (1981) and Brian Bellows (1991).

  • Miro Heiskanen had two assists in Game 4, his 10th and 11th assists of the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, the second time he has reached double digits in the postseason. Only two other defensemen in franchise history have multiple 10-assist postseasons with the franchise: Brad Maxwell (twice) and Sergei Zubov (twice).

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Rocchio HR sparks Guardians, forces decisive G3

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Rocchio HR sparks Guardians, forces decisive G3

CLEVELAND — How far can a team go by repeatedly dancing away from a season-ending precipice? The Cleveland Guardians are determined to find out.

The Guardians, boosted by a five-run eighth-inning outburst that began with an unlikely home run from Brayan Rocchio, beat the Detroit Tigers 6-1 on Wednesday to force a decisive Game 3 in the AL Wild Card Series.

In many ways, it was fitting that Rocchio ignited the season-saving rally because the trajectory of his rags-to-riches season has been in lockstep with the team around him. And, yes, the blast was unlikely, but unlikely is where the Guardians seem to be most comfortable.

“We always say we try to always play without pressure,” Rocchio said through the team’s interpreter. “That’s our type of ball. We just play and we realize we’re going to play until the last out. Even if we’re down by 10, we’ll know we’ll continue to try to play that type of ball.”

For seven innings, the Guardians and Tigers engaged in the kind of low-scoring, close game that frustrates hitters and thrills pitchers alike. For Cleveland, the frustration came from an inability to do much of anything after George Valera‘s first-inning home run. Through seven frames, Cleveland had just two hits and five baserunners overall.

For Detroit, the frustration was very different. The Tigers stranded 15 baserunners for the game. One Cleveland pitcher after another managed to wriggle out of trouble, usually with an inning-ending strikeout.

“It was a tough day,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said. “Obviously, they made the most of their opportunities and we left 15 guys on. I think that paints the picture that was today.”

The score was tied 1-1 entering the Cleveland half of the eighth. With one out, Rocchio stepped to the dish against Detroit fireballer Troy Melton.

“Just velo and the plus stuff,” Hinch said when asked why he went with Melton in that situation. “We needed to extend the game.”

Melton might have been the least of Rocchio’s problems. The afternoon shadows make things miserable for the hitters, with Guardians manager Stephen Vogt noting that in those conditions, batters simply can’t pick up the spin on a pitch, making everything look more or less like a fastball.

Rocchio got an actual fastball from Melton, a four-seamer in the heart of the plate that registered at 99.9 mph, per Statcast. The sheer velocity of the pitch was the first thing that made Rocchio’s homer so unlikely. According to ESPN Research, only Oscar Mercado, in a 2020 regular-season game, had gone deep on a pitch that fast for Cleveland over the past decade.

Rocchio connected and sent a shot toward right field. But even so, a home run still seemed very unlikely thanks to a howling wind that had been blowing in from that direction and played havoc with fly balls all afternoon.

“Funny enough, when the game started, I was thinking with this wind, we have to put the ball on the ground, try to get ground balls,” Rocchio said. “When I get that mindset to get the ball on the ground is when I get better and better results.”

Indeed, the ball settled into the right-field seats, giving Cleveland the lead and sparking an offensive surge capped by Bo Naylor‘s three-run blast later in the inning.

But forget the conditions — the shadows, the wind, the pitcher — and just think how unlikely it was that Rocchio was there, taking a high-leverage at-bat in a postseason elimination game.

Rocchio struggled so badly early this season that he spent six weeks at Triple-A despite helping the Guardians to the 2024 AL Central title and becoming a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop.

When Rocchio did return to the majors, his club was on its way to digging a 15½-game hole beneath Detroit in the AL Central. Nevertheless, there they were in Game 2, Rocchio and the Guardians, getting a postseason win in a season that has at various times been on life support.

“I think it’s important to just understand that we’re here for a reason,” Naylor said. “We’re here because we trust the guys that are in that clubhouse at our side.”

The Tigers won’t be daunted by their Game 2 loss, though they will join the Guardians in facing an elimination game Thursday. But if experience in playing with your back against the wall means anything, that edge has to go to a Guardians squad that has been there for three months.

“This is who we are,” Vogt said. “Couldn’t be more proud of our guys. Back against the wall. Back’s still against the wall tomorrow. We’ll come out ready to go and so will they. It will be another dogfight tomorrow. I guarantee it.”

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Machado, Miller propel Padres to Game 2 win

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Machado, Miller propel Padres to Game 2 win

CHICAGO — Manny Machado hit a two-run homer, Mason Miller dominated again and the San Diego Padres beat the Chicago Cubs 3-0 on Wednesday, sending their NL Wild Card Series to a decisive third game.

Jackson Merrill hit an early sacrifice fly as San Diego avoided elimination after losing 3-1 on Tuesday. Dylan Cease struck out five in 3 2/3 innings before handing the ball to his team’s hard-throwing bullpen.

The finale of the best-of-three series is back at Wrigley Field on Thursday.

The playoff-tested Padres are looking for a repeat of 2020, when they dropped Game 1 in the special pandemic wild-card round before advancing with two straight victories against St. Louis. Machado also homered in Game 2 of that series.

Chicago finished with four hits. The franchise is making its first appearance in the playoffs in five years, and it hasn’t advanced since it eliminated Washington in a 2017 NL Division Series.

San Diego jumped in front on Merrill’s flyball to right off Andrew Kittredge in the first, driving in Fernando Tatis Jr. Kittredge started for Chicago as an opener, and the right-hander was replaced by left-hander Shota Imanaga in the second.

The Cubs threatened in the fourth, putting runners on first and second with two down. Adrian Morejon then came in and retired Pete Crow-Armstrong on a bouncer to first.

The Padres added two more runs on Machado’s 404-foot drive to left off Imanaga in the fifth. Tatis reached on a leadoff walk and advanced on a sacrifice ahead of Machado’s 12th career playoff homer.

The three runs were more than enough for San Diego’s bullpen, with Miller and Robert Suarez combining for 14 pitches of over 100 mph.

Morejon pitched 2 1/3 perfect innings before Miller showed off his electric stuff while striking out five consecutive batters. The 6-foot-5 right-hander reached 104.5 mph on a called third strike to Carson Kelly in the seventh that was the fastest pitch in the postseason since Statcast started tracking in 2008.

Miller, who was acquired in a trade with the Athletics on July 31, struck out the side in the seventh in his postseason debut on Tuesday. The eight straight Ks tied the postseason record set by Josh Hader in 2022.

Miller was pulled from Game 2 after he hit Michael Busch with a slider with two oust in the eighth. Suarez retired Nico Hoerner on a liner to right before a one-hit ninth for the save.

Up next Yu Darvish will get the ball for San Diego on Thursday. There was no immediate word on Chicago’s starter.

Darvish played for the Cubs for three seasons before he was traded to the Padres in December 2020. The right-hander said he enjoys pitching at Wrigley.

“Yeah, this place did me good,” he said through a translator. “The organization, the fans did me good, too.”

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Iowa State loses pair of starting CBs for season

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Iowa State loses pair of starting CBs for season

AMES, Iowa — No. 14 Iowa State‘s secondary will be without longtime starters Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper for the rest of the season because of knee injuries.

Coach Matt Campbell announced Tuesday that Williams damaged the ACL in his right knee late in the Cyclones’ 39-14 win over Arizona on Saturday. Cooper tore his ACL in practice last week. The two have combined for 55 starts.

Williams, an Associated Press All-Big 12 second-team pick in 2024, had one interception and two pass breakups this season. He was hurt with three minutes left against Arizona as he dove in an attempt to knock a ball away from a receiver.

“So that’s a situation that really stinks for the kid,” Campbell said. “But man, just how he’s handled it has been uber impressive. And a great human. He’ll be back ready to rock and roll next year.”

Cooper has made 36 starts since 2022 and was an AP All-Big 12 first-team pick at safety in 2023. He switched to cornerback full time this season and had an interception and three pass breakups through four games.

Tre Bell, a transfer from Lindenwood, made his first start for the Cyclones in Cooper’s place against Arizona. Quentin Taylor Jr., who played 26 snaps against Arizona, would be in line to make his first start when the Cyclones (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) visit Cincinnati (3-1, 1-0) on Saturday.

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