How the West will be won: Pathways to victory for Golden Knights, Stars in Game 6
Remember Game 3 of the Western Conference finals? And the questions that followed?
Were the Vegas Golden Knights really about to sweep the Dallas Stars? Or was it more likely the Golden Knights would close out the series at T-Mobile Arena in Game 5? What could the Stars do to avoid being swept? How could the Stars fare without Jamie Benn, and would Benn return at some point in the series? Or would next season be the earliest anyone would see the Stars captain take the ice?
But now, there’s a different set of questions.
Are the Golden Knights in serious trouble — or is this temporary? How did the Stars hand the Golden Knights back-to-back losses for the first time since late March? Can the Stars force a Game 7? And if they do, are the Stars really about to come back from a 3-0 series deficit to reach the Stanley Cup Final?
Clearly, there are questions about what could happen Monday in Game 6 at American Airlines Arena in Dallas (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+). That said, we’ve put together a guide featuring what to watch from each team, along with some questions of note from Ryan S. Clark and an in-depth statistical analysis from ESPN Stats & Information.
Subscribe to ESPN+ | Stream the NHL on ESPN
Monday, 8 p.m. ET | Watch live on ESPN+
Line: DAL -130 | O/U: 5.5
Clark’s keys
At this point in the series, is it more about what’s gone right for the Stars in the last two games, or more about what’s gone wrong for the Golden Knights?
For those who want to get philosophical about it, look at the last five games this way: Mistakes cost the Stars a chance to win Game 1 in overtime. If Wyatt Johnston scores in overtime before Chandler Stephenson‘s winner, then, the series would be split after two games. Game 3 was a four-goal blowout, whereas the Stars changed their fortunes by winning their first overtime game of the series — and the playoffs as a whole — in Game 4. Of course, Game 5 was tied at 2-2 before Ty Dellandrea‘s two third-period goals forced a Game 6.
But what else could one expect in a conference finals in which three of the five games have gone to overtime? What occurred in Game 5 appears to have offered more insight into how this series has changed for both teams.
One of the problems facing the Stars was the inability to generate high-danger scoring chances in the first three games. It’s why they finished with a total of 19 high-danger chances in 5-on-5 play before Game 4, per Natural Stat Trick. Since then, the Stars have accounted for 30 high-danger chances — 15 in each game — which has played a role in what has made them look even more formidable.
“I think we try to limit turnovers and I think that’s something in the whole series has been a key point to play very well and play in their zone,” Stars forward Jason Robertson said. “Avoid the neutral-zone turnovers and the ‘hope’ plays. I think for the majority of the game we did that very well — this game and last game. We gotta continue that in Game 6.”
To Robertson’s point, the Stars were charged with nine giveaways in Game 5. That was a bit of contrast compared to the Golden Knights, considering how much they struggled with their puck management. Through the first four games of the Western Conference finals, the Golden Knights were responsible for committing 33 giveaways. In Game 5 alone they had 24 giveaways, which is another reason why the Stars likely held a shot-share percentage of more than 60%.
“We had 24 giveaways. I’m not sure you’re beating the Arizona Coyotes in January with 24 giveaways — no disrespect to Arizona,” Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy said. “It’s not the right way to play. Twenty-four giveaways. We’re trying to go to the Stanley Cup Final against a desperate team. To me, that’s the whole game right there. That falls under urgency obviously, right? You’re not making the right decisions with the puck, you’re not supporting it well, so it starts right there.”
What does getting Jamie Benn back mean for the Stars?
Benn’s return from a two-game suspension after his Game 3 cross-check against Golden Knights captain Mark Stone gives Stars coach Pete DeBoer another top-nine option. Being without Benn was not the only adjustment DeBoer and his coaching staff had to account for over the last two games. They’ve also been without Evgenii Dadonov, who has been out of the lineup with a lower-body injury since the early stages of Game 3.
Adding Benn to the lineup can be viewed in a number of different ways. The Stars are adding a player who scored 33 regular-season goals, at what looks like a bit of a pivot point following Game 5. Benn has scored three playoff goals, but there’s a point to be made about how he scores those goals.
More than 50% of Benn’s regular-season shots, along with 60% of his goals, came from those high-danger areas such as the low slot and net front, according to IcyData. It’s possible that adding Benn and his ability to get those goals in those portions of the ice could prove beneficial, considering the Stars have found more success in consistently generating high-danger scoring chances over the last two games.
Now add what Benn could potentially provide to a team that just got three of its four goals in Game 5 from Luke Glendening and Dellandrea, while also factoring in what Robertson has done in scoring five of the Stars’ 12 goals in the conference finals.
“We have a lot of belief in this room that we can beat anyone on any given night,” Stars forward Max Domi said. “That being said, we’ve got to come ready to play. We do all the things we talk about, we execute the game plan to the best of our ability and we’ve been able to do that the last couple games.”
What does Vegas need to do in order to close out the series?
It could start with finding ways to firmly gain control. Even though the Stars owned possession in Game 5, it’s not the first time the Golden Knights have gone through that experience. All but one of their wins against the Edmonton Oilers in the second round ended with the Golden Knights having a short-share percentage of less than 50%. It reinforces the belief that the Golden Knights don’t necessarily need puck control to win games. Like Cassidy said, it could be a matter of limiting their turnovers in Game 6 compared to Game 5.
“We mismanaged another puck and we were out of it there,” Cassidy said. “Credit to them for how they created some of their offense tonight and caused some problems for us. At the end of the day, they scored goals in the third and we didn’t.”
Exactly how damaging were those turnovers? Look no further than a few of the Stars’ goals. Miro Heiskanen forced the turnover that eventually led to Dellandrea scoring his first goal. Dellandrea’s second goal was a byproduct of a turnover. Zach Whitecloud tried playing the puck off the boards behind the net, only to have Domi gather the puck and throw it on goal. That led to a loose puck at the net front that Dellandrea lifted over Adin Hill for a 4-2 lead.
Let’s say the Golden Knights are able to limit turnovers and reduce the number of high-danger chances they’ve allowed. That still leaves them with the task of trying to find success against Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger in an elimination game. In the first round last year against the Calgary Flames, Oettinger showed what he’s capable of achieving with his team’s proverbial back to the wall. That continues to hold true this postseason, with Oettinger accruing a .948 save percentage in five career elimination games, which also includes what he did in Games 4 and 5 when he had a combined .940 save percentage to keep the Stars’ season alive.
“There’s no doubt in here,” Golden Knights defenseman Alec Martinez said. “There’s frustration, obviously. You want to close out a series. But, again, the Dallas Stars are a really good hockey team. This is that time of year that they’re playing really well and like I said before, we’ve got to match their urgency and desperation.”
What does Dallas need to do to force a Game 7?
Everything the Stars did in Games 4 and 5 provided a blueprint. Force the Golden Knights into committing the sort of turnovers that can be parlayed into high-danger chances. Continue to tap into the additional scoring options beyond Robertson. Plus, find a balance that allows Oettinger to harness his elimination game success while offering him support in the defensive zone.
Yet there could be one more item the Stars may add to that plan: Getting on the power play.
Several factors have contributed to how the Stars reached the Western Conference finals, and executing one of the NHL’s strongest power plays is one of them. They finished the regular season fifth in the league, converting 25.0% of their chances, and have pushed that number to 32.0% in the postseason; that’s good for fifth in the playoffs overall, and tops among the three teams that are still alive.
Despite scoring four goals, the Stars never went on the power play in Game 5. But if they can go on the extra-skater advantage in Game 6, it could give them another dimension toward pushing the series to Game 7 — especially when the Golden Knights’ penalty kill has a 61.4% success rate that ranks 15th among the 16 playoff teams. But that rate comes with the caveat the Golden Knights have faced three of the top five power-play units in the postseason in the Winnipeg Jets, Oilers and Stars.
“It just shows you how fast things can change,” Oettinger said. “We were down 3-0 yesterday, it seems like. Now, it’s 3-2 and we’re going home.”
1:39
Ty Dellandrea notches 2 clutch goals for the Stars in the 3rd period
Ty Dellandrea gathers two goals in the third period as the Stars lead 4-2 vs. the Golden Knights in Game 5.
Notes from ESPN Stats & Information
Golden Knights
-
Vegas has scored 44 goals at 5-on-5, seven more than any other team this postseason (the Stars are second, with 37). The next 5-on-5 goal by the Golden Knights will pass the 2021 team for the most in a single postseason in franchise history.
-
The Golden Knights have outscored the Stars 6-4 in the first period this series, but Vegas still has the worst first-period goal differential in the playoffs at minus-4. This comes after they had the second-best first-period goal differential in the regular season, at plus-30 behind only the Boston Bruins at plus-31.
-
While the Golden Knights have nine different goal scorers in the series, Jack Eichel is not among them. While he doesn’t have a goal, he has tallied four assists, all at even strength. Eichel does have the most shots on goal of any Golden Knights player in this series (17) and his 13 scoring chances created (eight scoring chance shot attempts plus five scoring chance assists) are tied with Jason Robertson for the most of any player in this series.
-
Eichel needs two points to become the third player in Golden Knights history to score 20 in a single postseason. The others were Reilly Smith, with 22 in 2018, and Jonathan Marchessault, with 21 in 2018.
-
William Karlsson, Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson each have eight goals this postseason, which are tied for the Golden Knights single postseason record with Marchessault in 2018 and Alex Tuch in 2020.
-
Goalie Adin Hill has played eight games this postseason on one day of rest between games, and has posted a save percentage of .933 in those games. During the entire regular season, Hill played five games with one day of rest, and posted a save percentage of .907 in those games.
Stars
-
The Stars have won each of their last three home games when facing elimination over the last two postseasons (won 3-2 in Game 4 of this series, won 2-1 in Game 7 of second round vs. the Seattle Kraken & 4-2 in Game 6 of 2022 first-round series against the Calgary Flames).
-
Dallas scored four goals at 5-on-5 in Game 5, which tied its single-game high this postseason with Games 1 and 5 of the second round. The Stars had scored a total of four goals at 5-on-5 in the previous four games of the series.
-
Robertson has scored five goals this series, which is only one fewer than the rest of Stars forwards have scored in this series (Ty Dellandrea’s two goals in Game 5 are the only other Dallas forward with more than one goal in this series). Outside of his 11-shot performance in Game 4, Robertson has a total of eight shots in the other four games.
-
Robertson’s next goal will give him the most in a semifinals/conference finals series in Dallas/Minnesota North Stars franchise history. He is currently tied with Bill Goldsworthy in the 1968 semifinals, Jamie Langenbrunner in the 1999 conference finals and Brett Hull in the 2000 conference finals.
-
Jamie Benn’s return makes for a tough lineup decision for Dallas. The fourth line of Fredrik Olofsson–Radek Faksa–Luke Glendening combined for a goal (Glendening’s 1-1 goal) and 10 shot attempts in Game 5. According to Stathletes, the Stars generated 1.07 expected goals at 5-on-5 when they were on the ice together in Game 5, the highest of any Stars forward unit.
-
Stars goalie Jake Oettinger is 4-1 with a .949 save percentage in his five career starts when facing elimination, in a virtual tie for the second-highest save percentage all-time when facing playoff elimination among goalies with at least five such starts. The only time Oettinger has allowed more than two goals in his five previous starts when facing elimination was when he gave up three on 67 shots in Game 7 of the 2022 first round against the Flames.
-
Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
With schools playing as many as 16 games this season in the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff format, we waited a little longer than usual to unveil our 2024 ESPN All-America team.
Postseason performances should matter, especially when you’re talking about up to four games.
Headlining the team is Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, who turned in All-America performances at three spots. (We limited him to one position on our list.) The receiver/cornerback was the cornerstone of a Colorado team that won nine games in 2024 after suffering through seven straight losing seasons.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts are the only repeat selections from last season. Ohio State and Texas each have three first-team selections to lead the way, and Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith is the only true freshman on the team.
OFFENSE
Ward made the most of his one season at Miami after transferring from Washington State. A Heisman Trophy finalist, he tied for the FBS lead by accounting for 44 touchdowns (39 passing, 4 rushing and 1 receiving) on the ACC’s No. 1 offense and threw just seven interceptions in 454 pass attempts. Ward, who started his career in the FCS ranks at Incarnate Word, had 10 games with at least 300 passing yards and set a Miami record with 4,313 passing yards.
Second team: Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
The mere fact that Jeanty made a run at Barry Sanders’ hallowed NCAA rushing record of 2,628 yards tells you everything you need to know about Jeanty’s 2024 season. He led the country with 2,601 rushing yards and scored 30 touchdowns. Jeanty was the Heisman Trophy runner-up to Hunter, and defenses aligned to stop him all season. Even so, he entered the Fiesta Bowl with 1,882 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, which was more than any other FBS player had in total rushing yards.
Second team: Dylan Sampson, Tennessee
Everybody in and around Arizona State’s program already knew Skattebo was an elite running back, but he showed the rest of the country in his two postseason outings. Skattebo finished second to Jeanty with 1,711 rushing yards and had 21 touchdowns. He also caught 45 passes, and in the Big 12 championship game win over Iowa State and playoff loss to Texas, he rolled up 450 all-purpose yards and accounted for six touchdowns, one a 42-yard pass in the Sun Devils’ double-overtime loss to Texas.
Second team: Kaleb Johnson, Iowa
Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who has been a head coach at the NFL and collegiate levels, said he has never had a receiver like Smith, with his blend of size, speed and ability to track the ball in tight coverage. A true freshman, the 6-foot-3, 225-pound Smith was uncoverable in the Buckeyes’ first two playoff games, with four touchdown catches and 290 receiving yards. He’s tied for third nationally with 14 touchdown receptions and averages 17.3 yards per catch.
Second team: Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
Nash is the first San José State player to be named a consensus All-American. The 6-3, 195-pound redshirt senior became the fourth player in FBS history to earn the receiving triple crown in the regular season with 104 catches, 1,382 receiving yards and 16 touchdown catches. Nash had 39 catches of 15 yards or longer, according to Pro Football Focus, and 71 catches resulting in a first down, leading the nation in both categories. He also threw two touchdown passes this season.
Second team: Xavier Restrepo, Miami
Warren came to Penn State as a quarterback, and that athleticism was on full display in his sensational redshirt senior season. He caught 104 passes for 1,233 yards and 13 combined touchdowns (8receiving, 4 rushing and 1 passing). The 6-6, 261-pound Warren became the first tight end in Big Ten history to catch 100 passes in a season and won the John Mackey Award as the top tight end in college football.
Second team: Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green
Despite a left ankle injury that sidelined him for the SEC championship game, Banks was the centerpiece of a Texas offensive line that paved the way for one of the most balanced offenses in the country. The Longhorns were one of six FBS teams to average more than 275 passing yards and 160 rushing yards per game. The 6-4, 320-pound junior won the Lombardi Award this season as the nation’s best collegiate lineman and has been a starter at left tackle since his true freshman season.
Second team: Wyatt Milum, West Virginia
Jackson’s versatility has been a huge part of Ohio State’s run to the national championship game. He returned for his senior season after earning All-Big Ten honors at left guard each of the previous two seasons. He continued his stellar play at guard through the first half of this season but moved to left tackle after Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Second team: Willie Lampkin, North Carolina
Florida’s offensive line improved steadily in the latter part of the 2024 season, when the Gators won their last four games, and Slaughter’s play was a big reason. A redshirt junior who has announced he will return for the 2025 season, Slaughter allowed just one sack and one quarterback hit in 728 snaps in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus.
Second team: Cooper Mays, Tennessee
Booker was a powerful blocker in the run game during all three of his seasons at Alabama and was a two-year starter at left guard. He also started one game this season at left tackle. Booker recorded a team-high 87 knockdown blocks and didn’t allow a sack in 715 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. He declared for the NFL draft following the Crimson Tide’s bowl game.
Second team: Bill Katsigiannis, Army
From the time he stepped foot on campus, Campbell was a fixture on LSU’s offensive line at left tackle, and this season, he played every offensive snap (866) in 11 of LSU’s 12 games. Campbell shared the Jacobs Trophy as the SEC’s top blocker with Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. Campbell is headed to the NFL after three seasons in Baton Rouge and is rated as the No. 2 tackle in the draft by ESPN’s Mel Kiper.
Second team: Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon
It might be a while before college football sees another iron man like Hunter, who played a staggering 1,440 snaps this season. In addition to playing more than 650 snaps on both offense and defense, he even played some on special teams — talk about an all-purpose player! Hunter tied for fourth nationally with 96 catches and ranked second with 15 touchdown receptions in winning the Biletnikoff Award as the country’s top receiver and led Colorado on defense with four interceptions and 11 pass breakups.
Second team: Desmond Reid, Pittsburgh
DEFENSE
Carter played through a painful shoulder injury in Penn State’s playoff semifinal loss to Notre Dame and still managed a sack. He led all FBS players with 23.5 tackles for loss, including 12 sacks. The 6-3, 252-pound junior moved from linebacker to edge rusher this season and established himself as one of the most dynamic defenders in the country. He had four games with multiple sacks and is projected to be one of the top defenders taken in the 2025 NFL draft.
Second team: Kyle Kennard, South Carolina
The defensive front was Michigan’s strength, and it was dominant in the upset win over Ohio State in the regular-season finale. Graham was the rock of that unit and a disrupter in the interior against both the run and pass. He had 7.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and 26 pressures and is headed to the NFL, where he’s projected by ESPN’s Mel Kiper to be the top defensive tackle taken in the 2025 draft.
Second team: Rylie Mills, Notre Dame
After transferring from Texas A&M, Nolen had his best season at Ole Miss. He’s big (6-3, 305 pounds) and has great burst. Nolen led all SEC defenders with 12 tackles for loss in league games and is the kind of interior pass rusher all defenses covet. And as a run stopper, he was ranked second among all interior defensive linemen, according to Pro Football Focus.
Second team: Derrick Harmon, Oregon
Ezeiruaku blossomed as a senior and leaves BC as one of the top defensive players in school history. At 6-2 and 247 pounds, Ezeiruaka was a pass-rushing dynamo with 16.5 sacks to rank second among FBS players. He was third nationally with 20.5 tackles for loss en route to winning ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors and the Ted Hendricks Award as college football’s top defensive end.
Second team: Jack Sawyer, Ohio State
The Butkus Award winner as the nation’s top linebacker, Walker is the third Georgia player to win the award since 2017. He’s a fierce tackler wherever he lines up and led the Bulldogs with 10.5 tackles for loss. Walker played more snaps at inside linebacker than he did rushing the passer, but he still finished with 34 quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.
Second team: Jihaad Campbell, Alabama
One of the best stories in college football, Dolac started his career at Buffalo as a walk-on, then missed most of last season because of a shoulder injury before transferring to Utah State for a semester and going through spring practice. But he knew he belonged closer to home and returned to Buffalo to have a huge senior season. He led the nation with 168 total tackles and led all linebackers with 18.5 tackles for loss to go along with five interceptions.
Second team: Jay Higgins, Iowa
The epitome of a do-it-all linebacker, Hill went from being one of the best true freshmen in 2023 to one of the best defenders in the country this season. And, yes, he has another season remaining at Texas. The 6-3, 235-pound sophomore led the Longhorns with 113 total tackles and tied for fourth among FBS linebackers with 16.5 tackles for loss. He also had four forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and an interception.
Second team: Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma
Barron was already widely viewed as one of the top cornerbacks in college football but only raised his stock in helping limit Ohio State star receiver Jeremiah Smith to one catch for 3 yards in the Longhorns’ playoff semifinal loss at the Cotton Bowl. Barron, a 5-11, 200-pound redshirt senior, was the Thorpe Award winner as the best defensive back in college football and tied for the team lead in a talented secondary with five interceptions.
Second team: Jermod McCoy, Tennessee
In his second season at Cal after transferring from UNLV, Williams led all FBS players with seven interceptions and tied for third with 16 passes defended. He finished his college career with 14 interceptions and scored touchdowns this season on an 80-yard kickoff return in the opener against UC Davis and a 40-yard interception return against Cam Ward and Miami in a 39-38 loss to the Hurricanes.
Second team: D’Angelo Ponds, Indiana
Watts has been everything you could ask for in the back end of the Notre Dame defense. He erases mistakes, makes big plays in big moments and raises the game of everybody around him. The 6-foot, 203-pound redshirt senior leads all FBS safeties with six interceptions and is second on his team with 74 total tackles. He has 13 interceptions over his past two seasons and will go down as one of the best safeties in Notre Dame history.
Second team: Malaki Starks, Georgia
There’s no shortage of talent on the Ohio State defense, and adding Downs in the transfer portal helped spur the Buckeyes to the national championship game. He has uncanny instincts and is a force against both the run and pass. The 6-foot, 205-pound sophomore was a Thorpe Award finalist after earning Shaun Alexander Award honors as the national freshman of the year in his first season at Alabama. Downs ranks third on his team with 76 total tackles, including 7.5 for loss, and has two interceptions.
Second team: Michael Taaffe, Texas
SPECIAL TEAMS
Zvada came to Ann Arbor by way of Arkansas State and kicked his way into Michigan history in just one season. His winning 21-yard field goal in the final minute gave the Wolverines their fourth straight victory over rival Ohio State, and he was money all season for the Maize and Blue. Zvada was 21-of-22 on field goal attempts and made all seven of his tries from 50 yards or longer.
Second team: Kenneth Almendares, Louisiana
The Trojans led the country in net punting, and Czaplicki’s ability to keep opposing offenses backed up against their own goal line was a big part of USC’s improvement on defense. Czaplicki, the Ray Guy award winner as the nation’s best punter, averaged 47.8 yards per punt, and opponents returned only 13 of his kicks. He had just one touchback all season, and 25 of his 43 punts were downed inside the 20-yard line.
Second team: Alex Mastromanno, Florida State
Shanks did a little bit of everything for UAB. The redshirt freshman led the nation in punt return yards (329) and punt return average (20.6), and he returned two punts for touchdowns, including a 58-yarder against Tulsa; he accounted for 311 all-purpose yards and four TDs in the game. Shanks also tied for the team lead with 62 catches and racked up 656 receiving yards to go with six touchdown receptions.
Second team: Rayshawn Pleasant, Tulane
Sports
Dodgers the favorites? The next Darvish … or Clemens? What we know as we await Roki Sasaki’s decision
Happy Roki Sasaki Week!
After announcing his intention to come to MLB at the start of the 2024-25 offseason, the 23-year-old Japanese free agent immediately became the most coveted pitcher available this winter thanks to his combination of talent and age, and the parameters of his contract.
With the 2025 international free agent signing period opening Jan. 15 and Sasaki’s posting window closing on Jan. 23, we could find out where Sasaki is headed as soon as Wednesday.
Because Sasaki decided to come to the majors before his 25th birthday, he is limited to a minor league deal with a signing bonus coming from a team’s international bonus pool (capped at just over $7.5 million). That makes the emerging ace a rare free agent star every team can afford to sign.
As we wait for Sasaki’s destination to come into focus, we asked our MLB experts what makes him so good, which major league pitchers he reminds us of, and which teams seem most likely to land him.
Monday update: Sasaki plans to sign with either the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres or Toronto Blue Jays at some point over the next week or so, sources told ESPN, with a cadre of big-name teams informed in recent days they are no longer in consideration.
What makes Sasaki such a coveted free agent?
Bradford Doolittle: He’s young, accomplished and with measurable tools that might make him baseball’s top prospect right now. But he’s not a prospect in the “maybe he’ll be ‘X’ if he reaches his ceiling” but one that’s already been successful in a high-level league and can slide into a big league rotation. A limited workload threshold, for now, is the only thing that’s really holding back Sasaki’s 2025 projection. With his full collection of team control seasons intact, there is no risk to signing him. And as good as he is now, he has room to grow in terms of his arsenal and how he fills out physically. You just don’t get a combination of factors all lining up like this, not the least of which Sasaki was so anxious to make the jump that he was willing to make max earnings a secondary factor.
Buster Olney: As we’ve seen with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and with Juan Soto — as we’ve witnessed all the way back to Alex Rodriguez — excellence at a young age is everything. Sasaki is expected to be a high-ceiling talent already at 23, and the team that lands him will have years of control while paying him relative pennies.
Kiley McDaniel: In describing his client’s upcoming potential nine-figure deal to me this winter, an agent underlined why he was confident that would happen, even if he had a down year, by saying: “age is a hack.” Rosters are getting younger, thus teams have more money to spend, but don’t want to offer long-term deals to older players, so they are (generally) seeking short-term free agent deals or trades for players with a year or two of control. That means long-term deals are generally acceptable to a large swath of teams only when they can land a standout young star still in his peak years. (like the Red Sox chasing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Juan Soto, extending Rafael Devers, but not offering huge money to any older players). Sasaki could be under team control for his entire peak of a bona fide ace, at a price every team can afford: a true unicorn of an opportunity for all 30 teams.
David Schoenfield: He is entering his age-23 season and it’s not a stretch to say he has the potential to be the best starter in baseball. In four years in Japan, he has a 2.02 ERA, averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine. He has hit 102 mph and is 6-foot-3 and athletic. You can argue that he’s right up there on the Stephen Strasburg/Paul Skenes scale as a pitching prospect, except he has already dominated as a professional.
Which current or former MLB pitcher does he remind you of on the mound?
Schoenfield: With his power fastball/splitter combo, I think of two former MLB greats: Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. There are certainly some similarities as well to Shohei Ohtani, although Ohtani slowly ramped down his splitter usage and didn’t use it much in 2022-23, going more often to his sweeper. In Japan in 2024, Sasaki induced a 57% whiff rate on his splitter, which would have ranked second in MLB behind Reds (now Yankees) reliever Fernando Cruz.
Doolittle: I don’t know that there is any one guy. The splitter kind of reminds me of the one Logan Gilbert throws, one with a spin rate so low it’s kind of freaky to watch in slow motion. The easy, heavy, hard stuff he offers kind of reminds me of Kevin Brown, only with a different fastball. The thing that’s most exciting about Sasaki is that it’s hard to call him the next so-and-so. He’s his own thing, and novelty is a great and too-rare thing in sports these days.
McDaniel: There isn’t a perfect comp, and Sasaki is still changing as a pitcher, so I’ll point out some players with qualities that are similar. Hunter Greene had a similar combination of arm speed and hype at the same age, along with some questions on his fastball shape and breaking ball quality. Obviously, Sasaki’s standout splitter has a number of comps to former NPB pitchers but only a handful of U.S.-born players, such as Clemens and Schilling. The total package (power fastball, slider, and splitter-ish offspeed pitch) is similar to Paul Skenes’, though Sasaki’s command and fourth and fifth pitch are areas he’ll need to address to have a chance to truly stand up to Skenes’ MLB debut.
Buster Olney: He reminds me of Yu Darvish, with his build and his rangy athleticism. He looks like he’ll have an ability to make adjustments, as needed. Darvish is known for being able to mimic the deliveries of other pitchers, and watching Sasaki move, it would not surprise me if he had the same gift.
Are there any concerns about how his game will translate from Japan to MLB?
McDaniel: Sasaki’s fastball shape and velocity regressed last season, his slider velocity also tailed off even more, he likely needs to add a fourth and maybe fifth pitch, and his execution within the strike zone could be a bit better. These are all simple enough on their own to be addressed in the first half of 2025 as long as Sasaki chooses a strong pitching development club, as I suspect he will. Some mechanical adjustments and mental cues could do a lot of the heavy lifting as these things can all be related. I would expect to see glimpses of Sasaki’s potential in 2025 while we wait until 2026 for the first dominating string of five or six starts in a row.
Olney: We really need our colleague Eduardo Perez to jump in here, because he’d be the one to tell us if Sasaki has any blatant tells such as pitch-tipping. That’s what Yamamoto experienced in his first months with the Dodgers. But Sasaki could have such excellent stuff that it doesn’t matter. His splitter seems to be so good that it won’t be hit even if the batter knows it’s coming.
Doolittle: Well, the different ball means we don’t know exactly how the measurements on his pitches will change, but that’s not a major concern. He looked great in the World Baseball Classic which offers a nice preview of that adjustment. It’s really durability. He has never thrown a lot of innings, his best pitch is a splitter and his velo was down last season. These things would be much more worrisome if he was getting a Yamamoto-like contract, but he’s not. I’ve seen his splitter carry an 80-grade and when you match that with a triple-digit fastball that moves and a track record of plus command, health is the only thing there is to worry about.
Schoenfield: The same as every starter: Health and durability. He has topped out at 20 starts and 129 innings in Japan, back in 2022. His fastball velocity was down a bit in 2024 as he missed time with a torn oblique and shoulder fatigue. He’ll also have to adjust to facing more power hitters than he faced in Japan.
Are the Dodgers the team to beat as his decision approaches?
Doolittle: They always are.
McDaniel: They are the most likely landing spot and have been seen that way for a while, but don’t underrate how little we truly know about Sasaki’s process of eliminating and ultimately choosing a club. We have some clues and potential leans, but don’t truly know very much right now.
Olney: Sure, because they seemingly land every player they want, with a bottomless pit of money. The Dodgers will be the team to beat for years on the field, and off.
Schoenfield: I’ll say no. I’m betting on Sasaki wanting to forge his own path and signing with a team that doesn’t already have Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Which other teams do you think have the best chance of landing him?
McDaniel: The Padres, led by their ultra-aggressive GM A.J. Preller, are perceived as the second-most-likely landing spot behind the Dodgers, and San Diego clearly needs Sasaki more: He would change the outlook for the whole franchise. Beyond that, we’re mostly guessing from teams we know he has met with that seem to have a good environment for Sasaki to develop and compete in meaningful games: the Giants, Mariners, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, and Rangers seem to come up the most but I can’t even say that’s a complete list of teams getting a long look.
Doolittle: For me, the Mets stand out. Sasaki and his representation have been pretty opaque when it comes to offering glimpses of his thinking, which has led to a lot of reading between the lines. It’s such a rare thing for a player of this caliber to be able to choose any team he wants with money barely being a part of the equation. So who knows? The Mets offer a good pitching environment, a strong possibility of sustained contention and a budding pitching development program highlighted by the pitching lab they built in Port Saint Lucie. Why be another Dodger?
Olney: It’s pretty evident that Sasaki is not afraid to ignore conventional wisdom, in the same way Ohtani did when he arrived — he passed up many, many tens of millions of dollars by pushing to get to the majors now, rather than just waiting. With that in mind, I think the Padres will be the most intriguing alternative to the Dodgers, because of the weather, Darvish’s presence and the chance to play against the best, in the same division.
Schoenfield: If Sasaki is primarily concerned with his own development as a pitcher, is there a better place than Seattle? Unlike the Dodgers, the Mariners have kept their young starters healthy. They also play in a great pitcher’s park, they play on the West Coast and it’s not like Seattle doesn’t have a chance to win. But we haven’t heard much about the Mariners being in the running.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports9 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway