College football’s most intriguing September games, coaches under pressure and exciting newcomers
We’re less than 100 days away from the start of the 2023 college football season, and the full September schedule is being released. So we’re gearing up for what the first month of the campaign will have to offer.
Our reporters break down must-see games for September, identify newcomers to watch and address questions that are still lingering. Plus, Adam Rittenberg lists coaches who are already on the hot seat, and Heather Dinich breaks down how September will impact the College Football Playoff picture.
Jump to: September’s must-see games | Playoff | Under pressure
Newcomers | Unanswered questions | Teams in new places
Most intriguing September games
LSU vs. Florida State (7:30 p.m. ET, Sept. 3 on ABC/ESPN App). The 2022 season opener between these two teams delivered a wild, heart-stopping, back-and-forth game that ended up being one of the most memorable of the campaign. But the stakes for both teams are vastly different headed into their season opener this year, this time in Orlando. Florida State used the win over LSU last year to help propel the program to its first 10-win season since 2016, and with the vast majority of its team returning, the expectation is for the Seminoles to be big-time contenders this year. Meanwhile, LSU also goes into this season with huge expectations in Year 2 under Brian Kelly, coming off an unexpected 10 wins of its own. There is already talk this game could have College Football Playoff implications. At the very least, we will get a sense of whether these teams are for real in 2023. Get your popcorn ready. — Andrea Adelson
Texas at Alabama (7 p.m. ET, Sept. 9 on ESPN/ESPN App). The dynamics for both teams entering this year’s matchup in Tuscaloosa are fascinating. Alabama needs to catch Georgia and reclaim its spot atop the college football kingdom, while sorting out a quarterback situation that added a layer with Tyler Buchner‘s transfer from Notre Dame. Texas enters its final year in the Big 12 without any CFP appearances and no conference titles since 2009. Coach Steve Sarkisian needs to deliver the results that match his playcalling and recruiting prowess. Texas largely outplayed Alabama last year before Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young saved the day. A road win for the Longhorns would put them squarely on the CFP radar and create more angst around Nick Saban and Alabama. A convincing Alabama win would propel the team into SEC play, where the home schedule (Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU) favors the Tide. — Adam Rittenberg
Ohio State at Notre Dame (Sept. 23, time and network TBD): A season-opening victory over Notre Dame in Columbus helped furnish Ohio State‘s résumé last year — in light of a second straight defeat to Michigan — on its way to reaching the College Football Playoff. By the time Ohio State touches down at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana, for the first time since 1996, whoever wins the QB competition between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown to succeed C.J. Stroud will have had a road trip to the Indiana Hoosiers under their belt. But Marcus Freeman’s team will offer a stiffer test, especially with Wake Forest import Sam Hartman under center. — Blake Baumgartner
Tennessee at Florida (Sept. 16, time and network TBD): Tennessee won for only the second time in the schools’ past 18 meetings a season ago, fueling the Vols to their first 11-win campaign since 2001. Josh Heupel was able to break through in only his second year as Tennessee’s coach. The venue shifts to the Swamp on Sept. 16. Billy Napier, entering his second year as Florida‘s coach, gets a chance in front of the home folks to show he has the Gators heading in the right direction after their 6-7 finish in 2022. The obvious question: If Heupel could do it in two years (especially in the shadow of an NCAA investigation), why can’t Napier? Each team will have a new starting quarterback. And the Gators will be facing their second preseason top-15 team in the first three weeks of the season; they open at Utah on Aug. 31. — Chris Low
Pitt at West Virginia (Sept. 16, time and network TBD). This isn’t going to be the most talented matchup you’ll see in September, but it will be the most hate-filled. The Backyard Brawl ended an 11-year hiatus last season at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, with the Panthers coming out on top 38-31. While the revival last year was great for the teams and for college football, many in the rivalry would tell you it is different when it’s played in Morgantown, with stories of Mountaineers fans throwing anything they can find at the Pitt bus as it rolls up to the stadium. Pitt hasn’t won in Morgantown since 2007, when it spoiled the Mountaineers’ BCS title hopes with a 13-9 decision. The energy of the feud didn’t go away despite the long pause, and it will be nothing less than at its peak in Morgantown. — Harry Lyles Jr.
South Carolina at Georgia (Sept. 16, 3:30 p.m., CBS): All due respect to UT Martin and Ball State, but this will be Georgia‘s first real test of the 2023 season. The Bulldogs, fresh off back-to-back national championships, have some questions to answer. Chief among them: Who will start at quarterback now that Stetson Bennett is gone? Will it be Carson Beck or Brock Vandagriff? Neither has much experience. And what about the defense now that Jalen Carter, Chris Smith and Kelee Ringo have left? This team has recruited at an elite level since Kirby Smart arrived in 2015, but don’t lose sight of those 25 NFL draft picks over the past two seasons. That’s a lot of talent to replace. Meanwhile, South Carolina has Spencer Rattler back at quarterback and is riding a wave of momentum, after beating top-10 teams Tennessee and Clemson to close out the 2022 regular season and losing a close game to Notre Dame in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. — Alex Scarborough
USC at Colorado (Sept. 30, time and network TBD): For the past several seasons, this matchup has had no real consequence or fanfare. This year, that changes with the arrival of Deion Sanders in Boulder. If we’re being honest, every Colorado game will have some level of noteworthiness or excitement surrounding it. But this one, in particular, sticks out due to the parallel nature of the teams. Lincoln Riley was the newcomer last season, and he proceeded to take USC from a 4-8 squad to a team that was one win away from the College Football Playoff. That kind of leap isn’t expected of Sanders, but with the hype still very much present around him, the matchup with Riley will be an attention grabber, nonetheless. Plus, this will be an entertaining duel that we might get only once given USC is headed to the Big Ten after this season. — Paolo Uggetti
What we’ll learn about the playoff in September
Hey Texas, are you back?! No really … for real this time?
A win at Alabama on Sept. 9 will help answer that, and it would legitimize Texas as an early College Football Playoff contender. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Texas at Alabama will have the biggest impact on the playoff race of any of the September nonconference games, and it’s one of the eight most impactful games of the regular season.
It’s certainly possible for Alabama and Texas to finish in the top four together — especially if they win their respective leagues — but if they are competing for a top-four spot with similar records, the selection committee could use the head-to-head result as one of the tiebreakers.
Texas could ultimately have a win over the SEC champion — and not win the Big 12. That’s a scenario that could mirror what happened to Ohio State this past season, which might not have finished in the top four last fall without its season-opening win against Notre Dame.
But in a four-team CFP, it is more complicated than just winning; that win needs to continue to resonate. For Ohio State last season, the Fighting Irish finished as a top-25 team, bolstering the Buckeyes’ final résumé and helping Ohio State compensate for not winning the Big Ten East division. The same scenario could unfold this year, with Ohio State at Notre Dame on Sept. 23. The winner of that game will earn instant credibility among CFP committee members, while the loser will be under tremendous pressure for the rest of the season.
Bottom line: For September games to continue to matter, both teams have to stay relevant. That wasn’t the case for Florida State last year, which eked out a one-point win over eventual SEC West champion LSU but couldn’t do anything with it because the Seminoles lost three straight to Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson. Expectations are higher in Tallahassee, and a convincing win in Week 1 against an even better LSU team would validate that.
September also can have a negative impact on contenders’ playoff hopes. Once again, Michigan has a weak nonconference lineup, starting September against East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green — teams that each finished with at least five losses last season. It would only be a factor if Michigan doesn’t win the Big Ten again. If the Wolverines lose to either Ohio State or Penn State, they’d likely have only one statement win — and no conference title — for the committee to consider.
— Heather Dinich
Coaches who need to get off to a hot start
The 2023 college coaching hot seat doesn’t have the same sense of inevitable doom as last season’s.
Unlike in 2022, when four coaches — Nebraska‘s Scott Frost, Arizona State‘s Herm Edwards, Georgia Tech‘s Geoff Collins and Auburn‘s Bryan Harsin — began the season with little to no chance of making it through, those currently feeling the heat still have a chance to change course. West Virginia‘s Neal Brown, who survived a tumultuous season while the athletic director who hired him (Shane Lyons) did not, might be the only major conference coach who needs a quick start to avoid the increasingly popular early-season to midseason dismissal. The Mountaineers will face Penn State, Pitt, Texas Tech and TCU — all in September — in a stiff challenge for Brown, who enters his fifth season at 22-25.
Other than Brown, few notable coaches are squarely on the hot seat. Syracuse‘s Dino Babers likely needs a solid September after a poor finish to the 2022 season. Justin Wilcox can’t fall further behind in an improving Pac-12, although Cal‘s financial and administrative challenges could save him. Jimbo Fisher’s situation will be hotly debated if Texas A&M stumbles early, but his bloated contract makes a dismissal expensive, if not impossible. Coach-friendly contracts also favor Northwestern‘s Pat Fitzgerald, Indiana‘s Tom Allen and others who have endured recent struggles. Still, they could benefit from strong starts, as could Missouri‘s Eliah Drinkwitz and a host of Group of 5 coaches, including Memphis‘ Ryan Silverfield and Arkansas State‘s Butch Jones.
The upcoming coaching cycle could be on the lighter side, possibly a residual effect of the historic 2021 carousel and last year’s, which featured 24 total changes and surprise moves at Wisconsin, Stanford and Louisville. But the carousel only needs an A-list job or two to open, either through firing, retirement or NFL exit, for things to become wild again.
What could those jobs be? Texas A&M certainly will be watched. Florida coach Billy Napier deserves more time to implement a layered plan, but what if the team endures a losing season? Jim Harbaugh’s NFL discussions have become an annual annoyance for Michigan, but what if a pro squad gives him the opportunity he seems to covet? Harbaugh’s teams have become more than an annoyance for Ohio State coach Ryan Day, who tries to avoid a third loss to the Wolverines. The job pressure around Day is fan-created, but continued struggles against Michigan could nudge one of the nation’s top quarterback coaches closer to the NFL.
Several prominent coaches will be on the annual retirement radar, with none more significant than Alabama’s Nick Saban, who turns 72 on Halloween. Others being watched include North Carolina‘s Mack Brown (turns 72 on Aug. 27), Iowa‘s Kirk Ferentz (turns 68 on Aug. 1) and Utah‘s Kyle Whittingham (turns 64 on Nov. 21).
Calling for a coaching cycle to be light or dull essentially guarantees chaos, but don’t expect the run of early firings like in 2022. When November rolls around, though, all bets are off.
— Rittenberg
Newcomers we’re most excited to see
Clemson DL Peter Woods. Much has been made of Woods’ exceptional play as an early enrollee this spring, which has everybody in the Clemson fan base excited to see what happens when the season opens. Clemson spent nearly all of last season banged up along its defensive line, but with veterans Xavier Thomas, Tyler Davis and Ruke Orhorhoro returning, integrating Woods into the lineup should be seamless. During the spring game broadcast, coach Dabo Swinney described him as “like a Halley’s comet. Every now and then you get a guy that physically and mentally and maturity and all the intangibles, he’s just ready.” — Adelson
A new-look Colorado. There are two surefire ways to create excitement: Do something no one’s ever seen before, or turn into a complete train wreck. It’s entirely possible Deion Sanders will do both at Colorado this season, and there’s no storyline more intriguing in all of college sports. Coach Prime has completely turned over his roster. He’s installed his son, Shedeur Sanders, at quarterback. He’s backed up an 18-wheeler to the entrance to the transfer portal and announced, “All aboard!” He’s landed some extremely interesting prospects like Travis Hunter, Jimmy Horn Jr. and Tar’Varish Dawson Jr., but how much chemistry can a team have when 80% of the roster is brand new? Is Sanders writing a new script for how to win or just scripting college football’s most chaotic reality show? Honestly, there’s no outcome that seems entirely out of the question. — David Hale
New faces for Alabama: Not that Alabama has ever lacked for talent under Nick Saban, but there will be three new faces this fall who Tide fans will want to keep their eyes on. Let’s start on offense with massive true freshman Kadyn Proctor. At 6-foot-7, 354 pounds, he will be hard to miss (literally) and was impressive enough in the spring that he could be Alabama’s starting left tackle by the opener, or at the very least, a few games into the season. Junior college receiver Malik Benson will provide an immediate boost to the receiving corps with his explosive playmaking ability, and freshman safety Caleb Downs might have been the best of the bunch in the spring. Alabama needed some help in the secondary, and Downs looks game-ready. Even Saban had trouble finding flaws in Downs’ game. — Low
Freshman RBs for the Tide: To piggyback off Low here, keep an eye on Alabama’s two freshman running backs: Richard Young and Justice Haynes. They were ESPN’s No. 1- and No. 2-ranked backs in the 2023 class, respectively. We’ve already gotten a sneak peak at Haynes, who enrolled early and scored three touchdowns during Alabama’s spring game in April. He has the power and speed to be a top back in the SEC. Paired with Young, Alabama could have a special backfield for the next three-plus years. And they should get plenty of opportunities as the Tide look to make more of a commitment to the running game under new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. — Scarborough
UCLA QB Dante Moore. Five-star quarterback Moore’s decision to flip from Oregon to UCLA in the days before the December signing period was one of the biggest takeaways and a boon for Chip Kelly in the post-Dorian Thompson-Robinson era. Kelly did secure former Kent State QB Collin Schlee through the portal to join sophomore Ethan Garbers in the QB room. But convincing Moore, who threw for 2,392 yards and 32 TDs as a senior for Martin Luther King High School (Michigan), to make the move from Detroit to Pasadena could be the perfect way for the Bruins to keep the offensive momentum going after finishing third in the Pac-12 in total offense (503.5 YPG) last season. — Baumgartner
Oklahoma S Peyton Bowen: Bowen’s recruitment became one of the wilder stories heading into the December signing period. The five-star safety from Texas (ESPN’s No. 17 overall prospect) initially committed to Notre Dame for a year before flipping to Oregon and then Oklahoma during a furious 24 hours. He joins quarterback Jackson Arnold, his high school teammate and ESPN’s No. 3 overall prospect, in Norman. Bowen and five-star defensive end Adepoju Adebawore are the types of defensive recruits Oklahoma hired coach Brent Venables to sign, especially with the SEC transition on the horizon in 2024. They should see the field this fall, and their performances could open eyes of similar defensive prospects toward OU and the chance to play for Venables. Bowen is Oklahoma’s highest-rated defensive recruit since ESPN launched its rankings. — Rittenberg
The Uigaleileis in Oregon. The Uiagalelei family has made Oregon their home. Between DJ‘s transfer to Oregon State and his brother, five-star freshman defensive end Matayo, committing to Oregon, the two will be spotlighted plenty come the start of the season in the Pacific Northwest. Matayo, in particular, will be a fun one to watch in Dan Lanning’s defense. While it remains unclear how big of a role the freshman will have in next year’s team, there’s an expectation he’ll get plenty of snaps due to his athleticism and size already at such a young age. — Uggetti
Unanswered questions for September
Alabama’s QB situation. The default opinion on Alabama’s QB situation is that, “Hey, it’s Alabama. It’ll get figured out.” Indeed, Nick Saban has won a lot of games even when he hasn’t had a future first-rounder at QB, and in the seven previous instances in which Saban lacked a clear-cut incumbent at Alabama, the eventual starters in those seasons completed 67% of their throws, accounted for 192 touchdowns and just 53 turnovers and posted a combined 79-4 record, with the Tide winning four national championships. And yet … when Tommy Rees is recruiting the guy who just lost Notre Dame’s QB battle to come to Alabama, it has the feel of a red flag. Every dynasty comes to an end eventually. You’d be a fool to assume Alabama’s best days are behind it just because of a little QB controversy now, but it’s just as hard to feel like the Tide have a good answer at the most important position on the field, too. — Hale
Can Payton Thorne succeed in the SEC? Thorne, if he’s healthy, will provide Hugh Freeze and Auburn an experienced signal-caller to try to navigate the SEC. Thorne’s 3,233 passing yards and 27 touchdowns in Michigan State’s 11-win season in 2021 proved he’s capable of playing at a high level. The Tigers’ first three conference games — at Texas A&M, Georgia and at LSU — will see Auburn thrown into the fire early. A two-year starter in Thorne may give Freeze the best chance to improve an offensive attack that finished 10th in total yards (378.5 YPG) and last in passing yards (172.7 YPG) in the SEC last year. — Baumgartner
How will Garrett Riley impact Cade Klubnik’s play? Give Dabo Swinney credit. He hasn’t been one to make many changes on his staff at Clemson, but he saw a chance to go out and get one of the brightest offensive minds in the game in Garrett Riley and brought him in to run a Clemson offense that had finished outside the top five nationally in scoring offense for two straight seasons. The passing game had really suffered, and Clemson fans are anxious to see what the offense looks like with Riley and sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik stepping into their new roles together. Klubnik spent most of last season as the backup to DJ Uiagalelei (who’s since transferred to Oregon State) before coming off the bench to replace him in the ACC championship game and then starting in the Orange Bowl loss to Tennessee. Riley has been outstanding at molding his offenses around his quarterback. Max Duggan is a great example at TCU. We’ll see if he can have that same success with Klubnik at Clemson. — Low
What exactly is going on at Texas A&M? Last season was an abject failure, as the Aggies finished 5-7 and sixth in the SEC West. But then some two dozen players started making their way to the transfer portal. And then Jimbo Fisher hired one of the most polarizing coaches in college football in Bobby Petrino to be his offensive coordinator. Given Fisher’s hesitancy to give up playcalling, that could turn into a combustible situation if things go sideways. The early part of the schedule seems manageable (September will feature New Mexico, Miami, Louisiana Monroe, Auburn and Arkansas), but remember this is a team that lost to Appalachian State last year. A rocky start could place Fisher and his $95 million contract squarely on the hot seat. — Scarborough
UCLA’s quarterback battle? Situation? Whatever you (or Chip Kelly) wants to call it, I’m fascinated by the rise of Dante Moore and whether Kelly pulls the trigger and starts the five-star freshman from the get-go instead of going for the more conservative route such as Ethan Garbers or Kent State transfer Collin Schlee. As Blake outlined above, Moore is a star in the making, and his statistics and accolades make him as much of a foolproof prospect as you can have in the sport. In spring camp this year, Moore impressed as well, turning what could have been a development year sitting on the bench into a real chance to start come the fall. Whether Kelly opts for Moore to be the replacement for the departing Dorian Thompson-Robinson in Week 1 remains to be seen. But one thing is for sure: If Moore starts on the bench, he won’t be there for long. — Uggetti
Teams in new places
Three FBS conferences will have a new look this season. A snapshot of who’s coming and going in the American, Big 12 and Conference USA in 2023:
AAC
Additions: Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, UTSA
Losses: Cincinnati, Houston, UCF
Big 12
Additions: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF
Conference USA
Additions: Jacksonville State (FCS), Liberty, New Mexico State, Sam Houston (FCS)
Losses: Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, UTSA
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Mark Schlabach
Former LSU football coach Brian Kelly rejected two financial settlement offers from the university, and his attorneys have given LSU officials a Monday deadline to confirm in writing that they’ll pay him the $54 million he’s owed under the terms of his contract.
Kelly, who was fired on Oct. 26, was in the fourth season of a 10-year, $95 million contract.
According to documents obtained by the Baton Rouge Advocate, former LSU athletic director Scott Woodward offered Kelly a lump-sum payment of $25 million on the day he was fired. Woodward also offered to remove the mitigation language in Kelly’s contract, which would have reduced the buyout amount if he coached again.
LSU executive deputy athletic director Julie Cromer later increased the settlement offer to $30 million in two payments, according to the documents.
Kelly, who had a 34-14 record at LSU, rejected both offers, according to the report.
In a Nov. 5 letter to new LSU athletic director Verge Ausberry and Board of Supervisors member John Carmouche, Kelly’s attorneys said they want university officials to confirm by 6 p.m. ET Monday that the school intends to “fulfill its contractual obligation” to pay Kelly the “full liquidated damages.”
“Absent this written confirmation by that date, Coach Kelly will pursue all available legal remedies,” the letter said.
Kelly’s attorneys said in the letter that LSU officials previously confirmed that the coach was fired without cause, meaning he would be owed 90% of his remaining compensation.
If a lesser amount isn’t negotiated, the university would owe Kelly $54 million in monthly payments through 2031, minus any future salary he receives in coaching.
Kelly’s lawyers told LSU officials that the coach was still “open to additional offers” if the university provided written confirmation that it intends to pay the $54 million he’s owed.
Woodward, who oversaw LSU’s athletic department since 2019, stepped down from his position Oct. 30, a day after Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry criticized him for giving Kelly such a one-sided contract. Landry also suggested that Woodward wouldn’t select the Tigers’ next football coach.
“We are not going down a failed path. And I want to tell you something: This is a pattern,” Landry told reporters during a news conference at the state capitol on Oct. 29. “The guy that’s here now that wrote that contract cost Texas A&M 70-some million dollars. Right now, we’ve got a $53 million liability. We are not doing that again. And you know what? I believe that we’re going to find a great coach.”
Landry criticized Woodward for agreeing to a similar one-sided coaching contract when he was Texas A&M‘s athletic director. The Aggies owed football coach Jimbo Fisher more than $76 million when they fired him in November 2023, which was nearly triple the highest-known coaching contract buyout at a public school at the time.
However, it was Ross Bjork, who succeeded Woodward at Texas A&M in 2019, who gave Fisher a four-year extension just before the 2021 season that made his 10-year deal worth more than $90 million. Woodward originally gave Fisher a 10-year, $75 million contract when he was hired away from Florida State.
Ausberry, LSU’s former deputy athletic director, was named interim AD and then promoted to replace Woodward on Nov. 4.
Frank Wilson is LSU’s interim coach. The Tigers lost 20-9 at No. 4 Alabama on Saturday, dropping their record to 5-4.
By mid-November, most college football teams are what they are. But each squad has areas that can be sharpened for the stretch run, especially those in the top 25.
Spots in the rankings can be tenuous, as Washington, Memphis, Iowa and ACC contenders Virginia and Louisville found out the hard way Saturday. Even teams much higher in the rankings, such as Oregon and Vanderbilt, came away from narrow wins with areas to clean up for the all-important games ahead. BYU certainly has things to assess on offense after being held to seven points and only 67 net rushing yards in its first loss of the season, at Texas Tech.
For some, such as Oregon, it’s simply getting healthier at key positions. For others, it might be improving third-down defense or special teams execution or scoring touchdowns in the red zone. As good as Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has been, his deep-ball success is something that needs an upgrade if the Tide continue to roll.
Here’s our weekly look at the top 25 and the areas that will demand attention as these teams look to remain in the rankings. — Adam Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 1
The undefeated and top-ranked Buckeyes could lose out and probably not fall out of the top 25. The biggest question facing the Buckeyes is whether they can earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff along with a first-round bye. Ohio State can all but clinch a bye by ending its four-game losing streak against Michigan. After that, the Buckeyes can pretty much wrap up the No. 1 seed by winning the Big Ten championship game, presumably over No. 2 Indiana. With a victory over Texas in its hip pocket, Ohio State has a strong résumé. With a strong finish to the Big Ten slate, the Buckeyes could head into the playoff as the favorite to defend their 2024 national championship. — Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 3
The Aggies didn’t play incredibly well, but the result was another double-digit win on the road against a ranked opponent, something in which they take solace. Mike Elko said Marcel Reed didn’t have the full playbook at his disposal, and they stuck with a short passing game, with only two of Reed’s throws traveling more than 10 yards. Then they followed a similar plan: line up, run the ball, and dominate up front down the stretch, finishing with 243 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Elko was frustrated that they also gave up 207 yards on the ground, but the Aggies never relented and allowed Missouri back in the game. A&M has to keep its feet in front of it at 9-0 and No. 3 in the CFP; it has 3-6 South Carolina and 1-9 Samford at home before a trip to Austin to face Texas. The Aggies have scored 30 points or more in eight of their nine games this season, including 49, 45 and 38 the past three weeks, but still can keep growing in the passing game. — Dave Wilson
Previous ranking: 2
The Hoosiers aren’t falling out of the top 25 and are probably bound for their first Big Ten championship game appearance, as they finish the regular season with Wisconsin and Purdue. But Saturday’s escape at Penn State provided plenty of focus items for coach Curt Cignetti and his team. Similar to 2024, late-season offensive line injuries have impacted IU, which surrendered three sacks, eight tackles for loss and six quarterback hurries in its win. Indiana played without starting guard Drew Evans and lost starting tackle Kahlil Benson for a stretch of the Penn State game, although he returned. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza was brilliant in the clutch but also faced a ton of heat. Indiana’s typical lockdown defense gave up eight third-down conversions and three plays of 30 yards or longer in the win, which coordinator Bryant Haines certainly will address. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 4
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said the Crimson Tide made just enough plays to defeat LSU 20-9 at home Saturday. But DeBoer and quarterback Ty Simpson were noticeably frustrated with the offense’s inability to get into a rhythm. The Tide’s lack of a consistent running game continues to put too much pressure on Simpson to make big plays in the passing game. The Crimson Tide ranks 14th in the SEC in rushing, gaining 111.9 yards per game. It was worse against LSU’s defense, as the Tide had only 56 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Jam Miller was back and ran eight times for 13 yards; Daniel Hill had 21 yards on seven attempts. If Alabama is going to get past Oklahoma’s menacing defense Saturday and remain in the hunt for an SEC title, it’s going to have to find a way to run the ball more effectively. — Mark Schlabach
Previous ranking: 8
The Bulldogs had one of their better defensive performances in Saturday’s 41-21 victory at Mississippi State, which many Georgia fans feared would be a trap game with next week’s home game against Texas looming. Georgia gave up 322 yards of offense and came up with a season-high three sacks, after totaling only eight in its first eight games. After Mississippi State drove 75 yards for a touchdown on its opening possession, it had only 87 yards of offense the rest of the half. Georgia scored the next 38 points and never looked back. Defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann dialed up plenty of pressure early, helping put Mississippi State in third-and-long situations throughout the first half. With much-improved Arch Manning and the Longhorns coming to Sanford Stadium next week, and another battle against in-state rival Georgia Tech and star quarterback Haynes King still to play in the regular-season finale, Georgia’s defense needs to continue to improve. — Schlabach
Previous ranking: 9
The Red Raiders aced their greatest test yet Saturday with a 29-7 win over unbeaten BYU. Coach Joey McGuire’s squad was ready for the national spotlight in a must-win game for his squad’s Big 12 title hopes. Texas Tech’s defense was excellent again with 11 third-down stops and three takeaways while holding BYU to a season-low 67 rushing yards. This would’ve been a real blowout if the Red Raiders hadn’t struggled to finish drives in the red zone, with touchdowns on only two of seven red zone opportunities. That’s one critical area where this team can keep improving, especially as quarterback Behren Morton continues to get back in rhythm after sitting out two games because of a hairline fracture in his right fibula. — Max Olson
Previous ranking: 6
The Rebels took care of business in a 49-0 rout of The Citadel at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Ole Miss had 603 yards of offense, including 151 rushing yards. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss completed 29 of 33 passes for 333 yards with three touchdowns. Defensively, the Rebels had their way against the FCS team, holding the Bulldogs to only five first downs and 106 yards of offense. It was the first time since 2014 that Ole Miss held an opponent to fewer than 150 yards of offense. With Florida coming to Oxford, Mississippi, next week, Ole Miss’ biggest focus might be maintaining its focus. Rebels coach Lane Kiffin is being mentioned as a potential candidate at Florida, which fired coach Billy Napier on Oct. 19. With a potential CFP appearance and SEC title still in play, the Rebels need to eliminate distractions. — Schlabach
Previous ranking: 5
After hovering on the fringes of the top 10 in the first CFP standings, the Ducks solidified their place with their best win of the season against Iowa. But there are challenges ahead, especially with USC and Washington still on the schedule, and a shorthanded receiver corps. The Ducks ran the ball effectively with multiple backs against Iowa, finishing with 261 yards and averaging 7.3 yards per rush. Quarterback Dante Moore made several clutch throws on the winning drive, but he will need to be sharper for Oregon to keep up with USC and Washington. If wide receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr., and top tight end Kenyon Sadiq remain out, Oregon will need to develop other reliable pass catchers. The Ducks also will look to make more fourth-down stops after Iowa converted three of four attempts, including a go-ahead touchdown with 1:51 left. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 10
A 49-10 domination of Navy was the latest easy win for the Irish, who’ve won seven straight — all by double digits — since an 0-2 start. Notre Dame faces a ranked Pitt team this week — probably its last serious potential stumbling block between now and a playoff bid — which means Saturday’s showdown with the Panthers is do-or-die. The Irish are averaging 9.5 yards per dropback this season, second best nationally, while Jeremiyah Love and the ground game have continued to impress. The key to beating Pitt will probably come down to protecting CJ Carr. Notre Dame’s O-line has been exceptional after a shaky Week 1 against Miami, but Pitt is fifth nationally in tackles for loss and the Panthers figure to be particularly aggressive in trying to rattle Carr. — David Hale
Previous ranking: 7
BYU’s impressive run of doing just enough to win finally came to an end at Texas Tech, during which its offensive limitations were on full display. As effective as true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been at times this season, that usually sprouted from the run game — either with him or LJ Martin. This is just not a team built to play from behind and score quickly. The Cougars are still in the playoff mix, but they didn’t look like a playoff team in Lubbock on the biggest stage they’ll get during the regular season. BYU needs more from its passing game if it can win its way to a possible rematch with Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. — Kyle Bonagura
Previous ranking: 13
The Longhorns are getting right at the right time, and had a bye week to rest up and fine-tune. Arch Manning threw 328 yards in Texas’ past game against Vanderbilt, second most in his career after the 346 the week before against Mississippi State. Manning has grown up this season, coach Steve Sarkisian said, but so has his offensive line, allowing Manning time to work through reads. Two of the Longhorns’ biggest stars who got off to slow starts have been on fire: receiver Ryan Wingo (273 of his 593 yards this season have come in the past two games) and edge rusher Collin Simmons (6½ sacks the past four games). With four SEC teams ahead of them in the CFP rankings, this week’s trip to Georgia is essentially a play-in game. Win, and all of a sudden, things get really interesting for the preseason No. 1 team. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 11
Wins in two of their final three games would almost certainly ensure a top-25 finish for the 7-2 Sooners. The question is what path they take. Oklahoma’s playoff hopes probably hinge on the outcome of next weekend’s trip to one-loss Alabama. From there, back-to-back home games against Missouri and LSU look much more manageable now than they did at the start of the season. The key to all three of those games will be the play of quarterback John Mateer, whose accuracy and passing metrics have dipped significantly since he underwent right hand surgery in late September. Playoff or not, this has been a positive fall for the Sooners as Oklahoma has rebounded from a 6-7 finish in 2024 and Brent Venables has coached himself off the hot seat. A strong finish over the final three weeks of the regular season would not only keep the Sooners in the top 25 but should bode well as Oklahoma looks to build on its momentum this offseason. — Eli Lederman
Previous ranking: 17
The Utes were off over the weekend but are in an interesting playoff position, coming in at No. 13 in the initial playoff rankings. What this means is that it’s possible for the Utes to win out, miss the Big 12 title game and still have a decent shot at a playoff spot with a 10-2 record. It gets complicated because their two losses are to Texas Tech and BYU, meaning they would be evaluated against at least one of them for an at-large spot. But this is the beauty of the playoff format. Utah has everything to play for late in the year. — Bonagura
Previous ranking: 16
After giving up only 34 combined points against LSU and Missouri in October, Vandy’s defense has sprung some leaks in November. The Commodores gave up 34 points and 7.1 yards per play in a loss at Texas a week ago, and on Saturday they were hit for 38 points and 6.9 yards per play against a previously moribund Auburn offense. They still have playoff hopes at 8-2, and they get a much-needed bye week now. But against an improving Kentucky team and an explosive Tennessee team, the defense will desperately need to find its legs again. Quarterback Diego Pavia and the offense came through against Auburn and can keep up in track meets, but they’ll need a little help, especially against Tennessee. — Bill Connelly
Previous ranking: 19
The Hurricanes beat Syracuse 38-10 thanks in large part to a newfound creativity with their offensive playcalling that had been missing for the bulk of the season. Malachi Toney threw a touchdown pass to Carson Beck; Beck threw a touchdown pass to offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa and off the Canes went to victory. It was a welcome change to see Miami open up its playbook a little bit more to get some momentum going for an offense that had become stagnant. Miami needs to continue to do that to keep defenses on their toes after the Hurricanes had grown somewhat predictable with their preference to run between the tackles. Without Mark Fletcher Jr. and CJ Daniels — two of their best playmakers on offense — Miami found a way to win and that is a good sign for the remainder of the season. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 15
An off week came at an opportune time for the Yellow Jackets, as their prime ACC competition stumbled in Week 11, leaving the door wide open for Georgia Tech to make it to the conference title game. ESPN’s FPI now gives the Jackets the best odds of winning the ACC (35.2%) with a date against 1-9 Boston College next up on the docket. Tech’s playoff profile, should it not with the ACC, is still a bit thin, with its best win — Clemson — looking far less impressive than it did in September. But Georgia Tech’s last two games of the season are against ranked foes — Pitt and Georgia — and winning both probably would assure the Jackets of a playoff berth, regardless of what happens in the conference championship game. — Hale
Previous ranking: 20
In its 38-17 win over Northwestern on Friday night, USC again won a game in which it relied on the run. For the fourth time in five games, the Trojans had at least 30 rushing attempts or more and were led by King Miller, a former walk-on, who now has three games of at least 100 rushing yards. Miller’s ascension has given Lincoln Riley’s offense a blueprint in which it doesn’t have to rely so much on Jayden Maiava‘s passing game the way Riley has in past seasons with different quarterbacks (Maiava himself has six touchdowns on the ground this season) — in fact, this season, USC ranks inside the top 25 in the country in rushing yards per game and top 10 in rushing yards per attempt. Three wins away from a likely berth in the CFP and its defense showing signs of improvement, the final stretch might not come down to the Trojans’ gamebreakers at wide receiver such as Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane but rather it’s the rushing attack, which could be what finally gets them over the edge. — Paolo Uggetti
Previous ranking: 21
At 7-2, the Wolverines remain a stealth playoff contender. Both of their losses (at Oklahoma, at USC) came against ranked opponents on the road. And though they don’t have any true noteworthy wins, that opportunity is coming Nov. 29. If the Wolverines can somehow knock off No. 1 Ohio State for a fifth straight year, they would become an intriguing playoff possibility (pending whether they also advance to the Big Ten championship game, where they could earn an automatic berth). Wins the next two weeks at Northwestern and at Maryland would almost assuredly keep Michigan in the top 25, regardless of what happens against Ohio State. But another victory over the Buckeyes also would hand the Wolverines a compelling playoff résumé. — Trotter
Previous ranking: NR
The Panthers find themselves in a four-way tie atop the ACC standings following their idle week. They’ve won five in a row, are scoring 40 points per game and have the No. 11 passing offense in FBS since they turned to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel at the start of October. No ACC title contender has a tougher remaining schedule than the Panthers with Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami up next, so the week off landed at an ideal moment for Pat Narduzzi’s squad. Their young QB will learn from his three red zone turnovers against Stanford last week and must play great situational football under pressure for his team to make a run to the ACC title game. — Olson
Previous ranking: 14
The overtime loss to Cal in Week 11 was a brutal blow for a Cardinals team that hasn’t lost a game by more than a touchdown in two years but looked entirely flat. With Isaac Brown out because of an injury, the ground game was less explosive, and Cal used the opportunity to turn up the pressure on quarterback Miller Moss, who struggled badly, completing just 20 of 38 throws with no touchdowns and a pick. Moss has now thrown an interception in five of his past six games, and it has been more than a month since he topped 250 yards passing. The Cardinals’ next two games — Friday vs. Clemson and Week 13 at SMU — are both potentially fraught matchups, and without a more balanced attack, a once-promising season could crumble quickly. — Hale
Previous ranking: 12
The Cavaliers have not been nearly as explosive on offense, nor dominant in the run game over the past five weeks, and that includes a 16-9 setback to Wake Forest in which quarterback Chandler Morris was knocked out of the game in the second quarter after taking a hard hit to the head. Virginia also turned the ball over three times — an area in which it had excelled and allowed it to win so many close games this season. Virginia has to find a way to get back to controlling the ball on offense, something we have seen in limited stretches since its big win over Florida State. Whether Morris will play next week against Duke is a big question. Daniel Kaelin had two of the turnovers, and threw incomplete passes in the end zone with a chance to win the game. If Morris does start Saturday, Virginia will have a full week to get him ready. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 23
Tennessee’s biggest area of focus is the same thing it has been for a while — defense. Pick your category: The Vols are 61st in yards allowed per play (5.39), 98th in yards allowed per game (395.9), 114th in scoring defense (31.1 points per game) and 120th in completion rate allowed. The fact they’re 6-3 with tight losses to two ranked teams tells you how explosive their offense can be, but with games remaining against ultra-efficient Vanderbilt and all-or-nothing Florida, they’ll have to make at least a few stops if they want to win out and create some late positivity from an up-and-down season. — Connelly
Previous ranking: 25
The Hawkeyes were seconds away from closing out a win that would have put them on the outer edges of the CFP radar. But they couldn’t finish off Oregon in a game in which they were outplayed in areas where they normally thrive. Iowa gave up its highest rushing total (261) since 2022 and its highest yards-per-rush against average since 2014. The Hawkeyes also made an uncharacteristic special teams error, as a bad snap led to a safety and the game’s first score. Iowa can’t afford slip-ups in its areas of strength, and must be sharper this week at USC and at Nebraska on Nov. 28. The Hawkeyes also must continue to grow their downfield passing attack, which flashed at times in the Oregon game, as quarterback Mark Gronowski had completions of 40 and 38 yards. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: NR
The Mean Green defense has stepped up since a 63-36 loss to South Florida, holding each of its past three American Conference opponents to 20 points or fewer. First-year defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity has pulled off one of the more impressive turnarounds in FBS this season in building a top-10 pass defense in Denton. But North Texas’ No. 130-ranked run defense has been tested quite a bit in conference play and still has to face Rice’s gun option attack on Nov. 22. The offense of coach Eric Morris led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker will continue to command the headlines, but Cassity’s defense playing with consistency and getting stops in November will help determine if this team can get into the CFP. — Olson
Previous ranking: NR
With only one conference loss, Cincinnati remains in the mix in the Big 12, with three tough games remaining: Arizona (6-3), BYU (8-1) and TCU (6-3). After being blown out by Utah, it’s hard to see the Bearcats winning out to reach the Big 12 title game, but it’s well within the realm of possibility. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby is having one of the best seasons of any quarterback in college football and he’ll continue to help give his team a chance the rest of the way. — Bonagura
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