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close video Probability for July rate cut falls on strong jobs data

NewEdge Wealth chief investment officer Cameron Dawson discusses seasonal stretch as investors eye the presidential cycle for stock guidance on ‘Making Money with Charles Payne.’

U.S. job growth unexpectedly surged in May, as the labor market remained surprisingly resilient even in the face of rising interest rates, declining economic growth and chronic inflation.

Employers added 339,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, easily beating the 190,000 jobs forecast by Refinitiv economists. That also marks an increase from April, when payrolls increased by an upwardly revised 294,000. 

At the same time, a separate report based on a smaller survey of households offered a slightly different picture of the labor market. The report indicated the unemployment rate climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%, even though the labor force participation rate remained unchanged last month. It was the highest jobless rate since October 2022 and the biggest increase since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wage growth also cooled last month, with average hourly earnings – a key measure of inflation – rising 0.3%, in line with estimates. On an annual basis, wages rose 4.3% in May.

MAJORITY OF WORKERS REGRET QUITTING DURING ‘GREAT RESIGNATION'

The Federal Reserve indicated it is closely watching the report for evidence the labor market is finally softening after more than a year of interest rate hikes. 

Over the past week, some central bank officials have signaled they may skip another rate hike at their meeting that begins June 13 as they examine how tighter monetary policy is affecting the economy. However, some officials have hinted they are open to raising rates for the 11th straight time.

THE HOUSING RECESSION ISN'T OVER YET

The surprisingly strong job gains in May, when coupled with the spike in unemployment and the slowdown in wage increases, may provide fodder for both sides of the debate.

"The tug of war taking place in the economy is on full display in today’s mixed job report and keeps pressure on the Fed to remain hawkish, even if it gives them a reason to pause later this month," said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office.

Construction workers on a job site on May 5, 2023, in Miami. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Job gains were broad-based last month, with the biggest gains in professional and business services (64,000), government (56,000), health care (52,000), leisure and hospitality (48,000) and construction (25,000).

Still, the outlook for the labor market remains hazy. 

A spate of bank collapses this spring is threatening to further restrict economic growth and hiring by tightening lending standards and making it more difficult to acquire a loan. Borrowers may have to agree to more stringent terms like high interest rates as banks try to reduce the financial risk on their end. Fewer loans, in turn, would lead to less big-ticket spending by consumers and businesses.

SILVER LINING OF HIGHER INTEREST RATES: SAVINGS ACCOUNT RATES

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month that tighter credit conditions are likely to weigh on economic activity, including hiring and inflation. 

Now Hiring signs are displayed in front of restaurants in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, on March 19, 2022. (Photo by STEFANI REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

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There has also been a wave of notable layoffs over the past few months, and the list continues to grow. Amazon, Apple, Meta, Lyft, Facebook, Google, IBM, Morgan Stanley and Twitter are among the companies letting workers go.

For many economists, the possibility of unemployment rising has become a question of when, not if.

The central bank previously projected in March that the jobless rate will climb substantially higher to 4.6% and remain elevated in 2024 and 2025 as steeper rates continue to take their toll by pushing up borrowing costs. That could amount to more than 1 million job losses.

Hiking interest rates tend to create higher rates on consumer and business loans, which slow the economy by forcing employers to cut back on spending.

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Hamlin, 7-time winner at Pocono, claims pole

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Hamlin, 7-time winner at Pocono, claims pole

Perhaps not too surprisingly, Pocono (Pa.) Raceway’s all-time winningest driver, Denny Hamlin, was fastest in the field Saturday to earn pole position for Sunday’s The Great American Getaway 400 (2 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota will take the green flag to start the NASCAR Cup Series race and historically speaking, no one has led the field to more checkered flags; his seven wins at Pocono are most in history. And he has finished first or second in five of the past eight races on the 2.5-mile unique three-turn track.

Hamlin’s lap of 172.599 mph was .083-second faster than Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing’s Chris Buescher in the No. 17 Ford. Spire Motorsports’ Carson Hocevar (Chevrolet), Legacy Motor Club’s John Hunter Nemechek (Toyota) and Haas Factory Team’s Cole Custer (Ford) rounded out the top-five in qualifying.

It marks a big return for the season’s three-time race winner Hamlin who is back on the grid after receiving a waiver from NASCAR, missing last weekend’s inaugural race in Mexico City to be home for the birth of his son.

“We typically can step up from practice,” said Hamlin, who was not even among the top-10 fastest drivers in the afternoon’s practice session. “We had good adjustments so never really panicked too much

“And obviously because I was a little more rested than the rest of the field right there, I was able to show a little more speed,” he added with a smile and nod to missing last week’s race.

“Every week we have a good shot to win and this team just knows what I need out of the car. The cars and tires have changed over time, but you still make speed at this track the same way. I was able to execute there in qualifying and that’s a good start for us.”

Of note, the current NASCAR Cup Series championship leader, Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron crashed his No. 24 Chevrolet late in the qualifying session. The team had to roll out a backup car for Sunday’s race so Byron will start from the rear of the field.

Hamlin’s JGR teammates, Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs will start sixth and seventh and Tyler Reddick, who drives the 23XI Racing Toyota co-owned by Hamlin, was eighth fastest. JRG’s Christopher Bell will line up ninth on the grid and Trackhouse Racing’s Daniel Suarez will roll off 10th. Six of the top-10 cars were Toyotas.

Defending race winner, Ryan Blaney was 20th quickest in the No. 12 Team Penske Ford.

Four drivers did not make qualifying runs, including Reddick’s 23XI Racing teammate Bubba Wallace, whose team rolled his car off the line just before his run. Wood Brothers’ Josh Berry, Rick Ware Racing’s Cody Ware and NY Racing’s Brennan Poole also did not make qualifying laps.

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Stenhouse-Hocevar feud could erupt at Pocono

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Stenhouse-Hocevar feud could erupt at Pocono

LONG POND, Pa. — Carson Hocevar walked around Pocono Raceway without a scratch on his face. His polo shirt looked more tailored than tattered and the Spire Motorsports driver was ready to race rather than rumble.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. hadn’t socked Hocevar with a right hook quite yet — hot on the heels of Stenhouse’s threat to beat up his racing rival after last weekend’s race in Mexico City — leaving the next shot at any potential retaliation inside or outside the cars set for Sunday’s NASCAR race.

Hocevar should walk with his head on a swivel because Stenhouse can throw a right hook.

Just ask Kyle Busch, who suffered a crushing TKO loss when he clashed with Stenhouse after last year’s All-Star race.

Get ready! The Pounding at Pocono could be just another round in the ongoing feud between Stenhouse and Hocevar.

“He probably will be looking over his shoulder for a long time,” Stenhouse said Saturday at Pocono. “We’ll see how that goes.”

Hocevar has to look over his shoulder — and for that charging Chevrolet in his rearview mirror.

“The scorecard has it that I I’m getting something from the 47 at some point, right? And I think my team and everybody kind of knows that,” Hocevar said.

Their beef has little chance of getting squashed any time soon, a dispute that started three races ago when Hocevar wrecked Stenhouse early at Nashville. Hocevar sent Stenhouse spinning last week in Mexico City, which ignited the postrace melee on pit road.

Stenhouse seemed to grab at Hocevar as he spoke to him, then slapped at his helmet as Stenhouse walked away.

Hocevar’s in-car camera captured audio of the confrontation.

“I’m going to beat your (behind),” Stenhouse threatened. “You’re a lap down, you’ve got nothing to do. Why you run right into me? It’s the second time. I’m going to beat your (behind) when we get back to the States.”

Hocevar avoided a smackdown from Stenhouse, but his Spire team hit him where it hurts — a $50,000 fine on Tuesday for derogatory comments he made about Mexico City on a livestream as NASCAR raced there last weekend.

At just 23 and in his second full Cup season, Hocevar has whipped himself into a flurry of unwanted attention, continuing a trend that started last year when even veteran Denny Hamlin chimed in and said NASCAR had ” to do something to Carson.”

Stenhouse might do it on behalf of the sanctioning body with his fist or even his No. 47 Chevrolet.

Hocevar conceded, yes, payback may be imminent and the time to talk out their lingering issues is over.

Yet, Hocevar pleaded: “It’s not an open hunting season on the 77 because of these incidents.”

Hocevar stamped his own target on his back. With his aggressive racing. With his ignorant words.

“Just because I do something in the heat of the moment or maybe, you know, you do it two or three times, doesn’t mean I’m not hard on myself for those mistakes because they are mistakes,” he said. “It’s just trying not to make that a pattern. But when you’re constantly making aggressive moves like we’re doing, it’s balancing that fine line of, you know, you make a thousand moves a day. Just unfortunately, what people remember isn’t always the good ones. You always remember the negative ones.”

Hocevar walked back his derisive comments about Mexico after he actually experienced the culture of the country following NASCAR’s foray into a new Cup Series market.

“I didn’t give it a shot. I didn’t give it a chance,” Hocevar said. “I didn’t go walk around. I didn’t go see it. When I did, you know, then hindsight’s 20/20, then I have my own opinion. But I’ve already put it out there.”

Spire also ordered Hocevar to attend cultural sensitivity and bias awareness training.

He can be thankful he gets a shot at another race. Stenhouse’s spotter, Tab Boyd, was fired this week by HYAK Motorsports in the wake of an unflattering social media post about his experience in Mexico.

“That’s above my pay grade,” Stenhouse said.

The biggest KO so far came in the standings, where Stenhouse has been flattened in just three weeks from 13th in points in the thick of playoff contention before Nashville to 21st entering Pocono. Hocevar is one point ahead of Stenhouse in the standings.

“That’s the thing that hurts worse for our team is just where it’s put us,” Stenhouse said.

Stenhouse’s trash talk that was more worthy of UFC hype could put him in hot water should he actually deliver on his vowed retribution and take out Hocevar.

If it comes to a point where NASCAR dishes out a monetary punishment, the 2023 Daytona 500 champion could afford his fine. He just sold his North Carolina estate for $12.2 million, the highest-priced residential sale ever recorded in the Charlotte metro area.

“It’s been a big week. We’ve had a lot going on,” Stenhouse said, laughing.

He’d rather talk real estate than about the space and time wasted thinking about Hocevar.

“I’m just honestly tired of talking about the kid,” Stenhouse said.

Tired of the talk? Sure. Of the action? Not just yet.

“Eventually it’ll all come together at some point,” Stenhouse said. “I’m not sure when or how. But it will.”

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Current Classics: Rolls-Royce Phantom V gets even smoother and quieter

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Current Classics: Rolls-Royce Phantom V gets even smoother and quieter

The electric restomod experts at Lunaz have turned their talents towards the classic Rolls-Royce Phantom V limousine – and the result is exactly the kind of smooth, quiet, and luxurious ride RR’s founders would have built.

Rolls-Royce’ founders dedicated their engineering talents to developing cars that were smooth, quiet, and adequately powerful – and they spared no expense. The company Charles Rolls and Henry Royce founded would eventually go on to develop some of the most powerful and celebrated combustion engines of the twentieth century … but the car they wanted to build? It was electric.

“The electric car is perfectly noiseless and clean,” Charles Rolls told The Motor-Car Journal, all the way back in April of 1900. (!) “There is no smell or vibration, and they should become very useful when fixed charging stations can be arranged. But for now, I do not anticipate that they will be very serviceable – at least for many years to come.”

Well, 125 years seems like “many” to – and the talented craftspeople and engineers at Lunaz seem to agree. Meet the Lunaz Rolls-Royce Phantom V limousine.

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It’s glorious


Rolls-Royce Phantom V; via Lunaz.

Lunaz says it’s true to Rolls’ vision “down to the smallest, most indulgent detail.” To that end, the company re-trims the modern heated and ventilated seats in fine leathers, hand-cut and stitched to the buyers’ specifications. In the rear, the center console can be ordered with a built-in cigar humidor, a cocktail bar, or some other custom-spec, lockable storage lined in suede and polished walnut (translation: guns and drugs, probably).

When reimagining the Rolls-Royce Phantom V, (we) started by understanding the essence of its original design. Every component and dynamic was scrutinized to identify where thoughtful innovation could truly elevate the experience. The result is a harmonious blend of modern advancements and original mastery, unlocking new levels of performance, reliability and refinement while honoring Rolls-Royce’ classic soul.

LUNAZ

Like the classic Bentley S2 Continental the company revealed in 2023, the big electric Roller is equipped with an 80 kWh battery pack sending electrons to a proprietary Lunaz drivetrain featuring 400 hp worth of electric motors delivering a silky-smooth 530 lb-ft of torque, good for a 0-100 km/h (62 mph) swoosh in about seven seconds. Of course, why you’d ever ask your driver to perform such plebian stunts is simply beyond me.

The transformation and restoration took more than 5,500 man-hours to complete, and involve more than 11,000 new or reconditioned components at a cost of more than £1 million (about $1.35 million US). If you place your order today, you should get yours in 18-24 months.


SOURCE | IMAGES: Lunaz.


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