Goldman Sachs slashes oil price forecast by nearly 10% as Russian supply recovers
The Johan Sverdrup oil field in the North Sea
Carina Johansen | AFP | Getty Images
Goldman Sachs analysts slashed their oil price forecast by almost 10% on the back of whey they see as increasing supply and slower demand for crude.
According to a report released late Sunday, the investment bank lowered its Brent outlook for December to $86 a barrel, down from $95 a barrel. In the same report, Goldman also revised down its WTI forecast for December from $89 per barrel to $81.
The revised projection marks Goldman’s third downward revision in six months, and comes in spite of last week’s announcement that OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia is cutting production by another million barrels per day, effective July. Overall, the oil cartel made no changes to its planned oil production cuts for the rest of the year.
“Significant supply beats from Iran and Russia have driven speculative positioning to near record-lows,” Goldman analysts led by the bank’s Global Head of Commodities Research Jeffrey Currie said in the research report.
Russia’s oil production has remained resilient even in the face of Western sanctions, with Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin in April ascertaining that Moscow’s oil production will remain stable until 2025, according to the Neftegazovaya Vertikal magazine.
“After an initial sharp 1.5 million barrels per day drop, Russian supply has nearly fully recovered despite the decision by many companies to stop buying Russian barrels,” Goldman’s economists said.
The bank made upward revisions for oil supply forecasts coming from nations facing sanctions, with “2024 upgrades for Russia, Iran, and Venezuela of 0.4/0.35/0.05 mb/d, respectively.”
While reports of an interim nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran have been described as false, market watchers have previously estimated that a successful agreement could see at least an additional million barrels a day in crude exports.
“Hope of a U.S.-Iran deal within grasp is one thing. But guarantee of a quick and unencumbered passage of such a complex, layered deal is quite another,” Mizuho’s Vishnu Varathan said in a daily research note.
Goldman is of the view that the additional cuts implemented by Saudi Arabia are unlikely to result in a price spike, even as the kingdom’s output will see a decline to 9 million barrels per day from around 10 million barrels in May.
“The extra Saudi cut and our expectation that OPEC+ will extend half of its April voluntary cut in 2024 will likely only partly offset these bearish shocks,” the report continued.
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $73.99 a barrel, down 1.07%, on Monday morning, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $69.43, dipping 1.05%.
Environment
Chevron earnings beat Wall Street estimates as oil production hits record boosted by Hess acquisition
California’s ambitious statewide electric bicycle incentive program is officially dead – and it didn’t even get a funeral. After years of buildup, delays, and surging public interest, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) has quietly ended the program, rolling the remaining $17 million of the original $30 million budget into its “Clean Cars 4 All” initiative without even making an official announcement.
The California E-Bike Incentive Project was originally hailed as a groundbreaking effort to make electric bikes affordable for low-income residents. Vouchers – not rebates – were designed to let buyers walk into a participating shop and ride out without covering the full price upfront. Base vouchers were worth $1,000, with up to $2,500 available for those purchasing cargo or adaptive e-bikes in priority communities. It was a model that other states were watching closely.
But from the outset, the program was plagued by setbacks. Years of delays meant the first vouchers weren’t distributed until late 2024, and even then, only after a chaotic launch that saw the website crash under the weight of tens of thousands of applicants vying for just 1,500 vouchers. A second launch attempt in April 2025 failed completely, locking out eligible users. While a final distribution round in May went more smoothly, an estimated 90% of eligible applicants were turned away due to limited supply.
To make matters worse, the program’s administrator, Pedal Ahead, came under fire for questionable practices in San Diego, further undermining confidence.
Now, with no formal announcement or update on the program’s official website, CARB has quietly absorbed the funds into its Clean Cars 4 All program.
Electrek’s Take
This is an enormous letdown.
The California E-Bike Incentive Project had the potential to reshape car-heavy communities by giving low-income Californians access to clean, affordable micromobility. Instead, it was starved by mismanagement and then cannibalized to prop up car-centric policy.
It’s not that electric cars don’t deserve support, but this move reflects a broader failure of imagination. If we want a future with fewer cars, not just cleaner ones, then we need to start funding real alternatives. This was a huge missed opportunity to invest in a more livable California.
via: Streetsblog
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024