‘When you lose, there’s damage control’: Ohio State and the pressure to beat Michigan
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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
COLUMBUS, Ohio — A box of Yogi Stress Relief tea sat on Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ desk, where he watched film repeatedly this offseason to analyze defensive breakdowns in losses to Michigan and Georgia.
The pressure here, he conceded with a smile, is a little different than anywhere else he’s ever coached over the past three decades.
“You can’t lose a game,” he said following his first season with the Buckeyes, an 11-2 finish that included a College Football Playoff semifinal appearance. “You can’t lose a game.”
Especially The Game. Twice.
Roles have reversed in the Big Ten, in which Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh was lambasted in 2019 after dropping to 0-5 in one of the sport’s most iconic rivalries following an embarrassing 56-27 home loss to Ohio State. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day hasn’t defeated Harbaugh since — leaving two giant ink stains on Day’s Big Ten record that’s an otherwise spotless 32-0, including conference championship games. Not only has Michigan won the Big Ten each of the past two seasons, but the Wolverines have also encroached on Ohio State’s national spotlight, finishing in the top four in each of the past two seasons and reaching a new level under Harbaugh.
Ohio State is hardly in crisis mode — the Buckeyes enter this season with what should again be one of the most prolific offenses in the country and legitimate CFP aspirations — but the layers of NFL draft talent on the two-deep have yet to translate into a national title for Day. Back-to-back losses to Michigan have only compounded the scrutiny as Day enters his fifth season leading one of the wealthiest and most visible programs in the country.
“The expectation here every year is the same,” said Day, who is 1-3 in CFP semifinals. “Win the rivalry game, win the Big Ten and win the national championship. We fight like heck to do that and we’re right there. You can feel it, you can taste it, and that’s motivated the guys this offseason. When you get that close and you don’t get there, you didn’t get it done. And it certainly does motivate.”
And now he’s trying to do it without the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL draft, quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith has given no indication Day’s job is in jeopardy (“He’s my CEO,” Smith said in April), but the head coach is well aware the program hasn’t met its own expectations, particularly in the past two seasons. If Day loses to Harbaugh again, it will be the first time since 1995-97 that Ohio State lost three straight to Michigan. The goal, though, is consistently larger, and the Buckeyes haven’t won the national title since the 2014 season with Urban Meyer.
Day has made multiple hires to boost the brainpower in the building, has considered relinquishing playcalling duties, and had honest discussions with Knowles about how the defense can improve this fall.
“When you lose,” Day said, “there’s damage control.”
THE UNCANNY AND improbable timing of Ohio State’s missed field goal against Georgia in the CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl might have etched its place in college football history.
As midnight approached on the East Coast and the New Year’s Eve clock in Times Square ticked down the final seconds until 2023, Ohio State kicker Noah Ruggles‘ 50-yard game-winning attempt simultaneously sailed wide left as the iconic ball dropped and celebrations erupted everywhere. Everywhere but Buckeye Country.
The No. 4 Buckeyes lost 42-41 to the eventual national champions in what was the most entertaining game of last year’s CFP. It never comes down to one play, but that’s how close Ohio State was to playing TCU for the national title, and with all due respect to the Frogs, probably winning it. It’s a narrow twist of fate and football that changed the entire narrative and exacerbated the losses to Michigan.
“We don’t have a choice,” Day said of winning a national title. “The expectation is that you do. The rivalry game is obviously very important, and when you look at those games, and you see the single plays that really cost us the game, when you’re talking about on defense giving up explosive plays, that’s very important, that’s how games can go sideways. We have to identify that and get that fixed. That hurt us in the Georgia game as well.”
Which is why Knowles was back at his desk this spring, zeroing in on 16 plays of at least 20 yards that changed Ohio State’s season (six against Michigan and 10 against Georgia). Plays such as Donovan Edwards‘ two runs of more than 75 yards in the fourth quarter for Michigan or Stetson Bennett‘s 76-yard pass to Arian Smith in the final quarter for Georgia. It was the most plays of at least 20 yards Ohio State has allowed in any two-game span since 2004, and the 10 in the Georgia loss was the most the Buckeyes have allowed in any game dating back to 2004, when ESPN’s Stats & Information began tracking the data.
“We had some matchup issues, which I blame myself,” Knowles said. “Got put into positions where the matchup was not in our favor. That’s my job to fix that and look out for that. We had some times where we lost our eyes and we didn’t execute. I call it eye violations. When the moments get big, our vision has to get smaller and more condensed. At times we had guys who were doing too much and not focused on their assignment. That goes back to me. Nobody wants to make the critical mistake, they don’t want to give up the critical play. That’s not how our guys are built. So then I have to look at my teaching and the environment.”
The environment features one of the most prolific offenses in the country at every practice. Knowles said he talks to his players about going against “the best receiver in the country” in Marvin Harrison Jr., who caught 77 passes for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns as a sophomore and is a projected first-round NFL draft pick.
“I went through it at Oklahoma State,” said Knowles, who was hired from the Cowboys following the 2021 season. “When you go into a place where the offense is just fantastic and off the charts, I feel like the defense, particularly in the back end, gets used to not winning in practice. I think it is a tough habit to break.
“It’s not OK to lose to Marvin,” he said. “That’s who we have to beat if we’re going to win the national championship, so we’re learning to compete against our offense and doing our fair share of winning.”
Winning was all Ohio State did last fall through its first 11 games, when Ohio State’s defense allowed an average of 16.9 points, compared to 43.5 against Michigan and Georgia. The Buckeyes held their first 11 opponents to 4.5 yards per play, while the last two averaged 8.9.
“You have to be willing to change if necessary,” Knowles said. “That’s part of growth. You have to be restless, uncomfortable. Nothing is nonnegotiable with me. I’ve worked my way to get here. I’m not going to fall on the sword and say, ‘This is the way we do it.’ No, look at everything. Break it down. It doesn’t matter if I’ve done it for 20 years. If something doesn’t work in those crucial situations, then I really need to look at myself.”
The problem went deeper than a few big plays, particularly against the Wolverines, who plowed their way to 252 rushing yards and 7.2 yards per carry. Michigan’s Edwards had nine carries for 170 yards and two touchdowns — in the fourth quarter — and 114 of those yards came before contact. It was the second straight year the Wolverines outgained and outmuscled Ohio State up front, as they ran for 297 yards to Ohio State’s 64 in 2021.
The disparity prompted former Michigan offensive coordinator Josh Gattis to question the Buckeyes’ toughness two days after the 2021 game.
“They’re a finesse team; they’re not a tough team,” Gattis said at the time, according to the Detroit News. “And we knew that going into the game that we can out-physical them, we can out-tough and that was gonna be the key to the game, and that’s what we prepared for all year long.”
Former Buckeyes’ star James Laurinaitis joined the program in January as a graduate assistant working with the defense, and Day hired former Nebraska assistant Mike Dawson as a defensive analyst. Day said the defensive staff is a “very veteran group,” but at the end of the day, “I’m the head coach, and I’ve got to make sure that it’s the way that we want it.”
Ohio State returns its leading tackler from last season, linebacker Tommy Eichenberg, along with defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr., who tied for the team lead in sacks last season. Defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau, who enters his junior season with 15 tackles for loss and six sacks, should be one of the best linemen in the country. Tuimoloau, who was the No. 5 player in the 2021 ESPN 300, had one of the best performances ever by an Ohio State defensive lineman in the Buckeyes’ 44-31 win at Penn State last season. He had a career-high six tackles, three TFLs, including two sacks, two interceptions, one pass breakup, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. He helped Ohio State force four takeaways that directly led to 21 points, capped by Tuimoloau’s fourth-quarter pick-six to seal the win. Tuimoloau said the defense trusts in Knowles, and the Buckeyes are motivated to be better this fall.
“We’ve got to continue to grow in all aspects of the game,” Tuimoloau said, “Go to our offense, ask them questions. They coach us, we coach them, just continue to drive each other to be the team we know we should be.”
Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, who is competing with Devin Brown for the starting job, said the Buckeyes will be “a very tough team” this fall.
“I think that everybody feels like we have something to prove,” he said. “After last year, how close we were, I think we still have a little bit of a sour taste in our mouth, so we’re coming out motivated.”
ASIDE FROM GETTING the extra push up front, Ohio State’s offense hasn’t been a problem. In fact, it’s been one of the best in the country. Since Day joined Ohio State’s staff as co-offensive coordinator in 2017, the Buckeyes are the only FBS team to average 40 points per game in each of those six seasons. In spite of that success, Day has tinkered with the idea of handing over the playcalling duties to recently promoted offensive coordinator Brian Hartline, who also coaches the receivers, and Hartline called plays during the spring game.
Day also hired former NFL head coach Joe Philbin as an offensive analyst, and even with a new starting quarterback and three new starting offensive linemen this fall, the Buckeyes should find ways to generate eye-popping statistics. Including Harrison, Ohio State returns 10 of the 11 players who had at least 100 yards from scrimmage last year, with Stroud being the lone exception.
“I always say if you play quarterback here, you have the keys to the Ferrari,” McCord said. “… The list goes on and on of talent I have around me, and it definitely helps. Whether you’re with the ones or the twos this spring getting reps, there are future NFL receivers around you. If you don’t throw a perfect ball, they’ll still go up and get it for you.”
Harrison was one of the Buckeyes’ highlights in the losses, as he snagged seven catches for 120 yards and one touchdown against Michigan and had five receptions for 106 yards and two touchdowns against Georgia before leaving the game in the third quarter under the concussion protocol — yet another controversial game-changing play that wasn’t flagged for targeting.
“Not being able to play the fourth quarter and seeing your team struggle offensively, definitely tough,” Harrison said. “We’re one play away — a couple plays away — from it being a completely different outcome.”
Ohio State didn’t have to beat Michigan last season to earn the selection committee’s No. 4 spot and its shot against Georgia. The season-opening win against Notre Dame coupled with the Oct. 29 road win at Penn State — plus an elite offense that scored at least 40 points in all but two wins — was enough.
It could be again.
Ohio State has a similar schedule, including a Sept. 23 trip to Notre Dame. If the Buckeyes can beat the Irish on their home turf, and Notre Dame finishes as a top-25 CFP team, that win will again boost Ohio State’s résumé through Selection Day. If the Buckeyes finish with one loss or better, they would likely be considered for a semifinal, and all but guaranteed a spot with a Big Ten title.
Day said the pressure he feels now is no different than his first day on the job, when he took over for Urban Meyer. It’s been the same, he said, for the previous coaches who came before him, from Woody Hayes to Meyer and everyone in between.
Hayes won five national titles, elevating the program to unprecedented heights. In seven seasons as head coach of Ohio State, Meyer won one national title — but he never lost to Michigan (7-0). Jim Tressel won the national title in his second season and went 9-1 against Michigan. John Cooper was 2-10-1 against Michigan. He was fired, but any comparisons between Day and Cooper are unfair and frankly unreasonable. Cooper was fired following concerns about discipline, competitiveness and academics.
The only common thread is the expectation to beat Michigan.
“It’s more than just a football game,” McCord said. “It’s something you live 365 days a year if you come here. It was a surprise when we lost to them my freshman year, and I think it woke a lot of people up. Last year we were confident going into the game. I think we had a good game plan. We knew what we wanted to do in terms of offensive scheme and where we wanted to attack them on defense. To come up short again really makes you take a step back and say, ‘We’ve got to change our approach and some of the things we’re doing.’
“I think everybody had a clear vision of what it’s going to take to win, because obviously the last two years we haven’t done enough to do that,” he said. “I can say with confidence, I think that’s the No. 1 goal in every person’s mind in the building every single day we walk in is to beat them.”
Which is why it’s magnified when they don’t.
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David Hale
The beauty of college football, the thing that keeps us coming back week after week in spite of the exasperating morass of everything that happens off the field, is that the sport keeps surprising us.
This shouldn’t be possible. Once you’ve seen the band on the field, the kick-six and a player mimic a urinating dog after a touchdown, we should be immune to such astonishment. And yet, here were are, in Week 5, awash in shock and awe once more.
Who would’ve thought that Alabama, reeling in the aftermath of a Week 1 loss to Florida State, would waltz into Athens and swat down Georgia 24-21 behind a brilliant performance from QB Ty Simpson? Kalen DeBoer has gone from the hot seat to the SEC’s throne in the span of a month.
Who might’ve imagined that James Franklin, three quarters of the way through yet another root canal of a performance in a big game, would see his Penn State team rally from 14 points down to force overtime against Oregon? Even if it all still came to an end with a 30-24 defeat in double overtime, the game felt more like last year’s battle of titans between the Ducks and Ohio State, an appetizer before an entree to come later — in the conference title game or the College Football Playoff or at Dan Lanning’s annual Big Ten family trip to Six Flags.
Who would have imagined that a clattering of cowbells would come within a few yards of upending the SEC’s power structure, that Virginia‘s football program, which had fallen asleep watching Tony Bennett’s offense six years ago, would suddenly awaken to stun Florida State, or that, just days after Brian Kelly promised LSU would keep the Magnolia Trophy, Lane Kiffin would come away with a win and troll Kelly on social media?
OK, so we probably should’ve seen that last one coming.
— Lane Kiffin (@Lane_Kiffin) September 27, 2025
And so, we’ve reached September’s end, and so much of what seemed certain has come undone. No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 LSU, No. 5 Georgia and No. 8 Florida State all went down in a raucous Week 5 that reshuffled expectations for October and offered a reminder of just how little we know so early in a season.
In Week 1, we got our first true stunner of the new season, as Tommy Castellanos and the Seminoles upended Alabama. After Saturday, it seems impossible to believe that just five weeks have passed since then.
For the Tide, every glaring weakness on display in Tallahassee on Aug. 30 had been miraculously remedied in Athens on Saturday night. Simpson was terrific, throwing for 276 yards and two scores, the defense was stalwart, and DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb worked magic, from a rejuvenated rushing attack to a near flawless night of third-down playcalling to the inspired use of left tackle Kadyn Proctor on a trick play that we assume Bama calls “No, seriously, get out of his way for your own safety! Our health insurance plan does not cover what will happen to you if you attempt to tackle him!”
0:33
Ty Simpson throws pass to 6-foot-7, 366-pound tackle Kayden Proctor
Ty Simpson throws it out to Kayden Proctor, who barrels over everyone to set up first-and-goal.
Georgia had its chances, but came up small is so many big moments, including a misplayed fourth-down call near the goal line. Gunner Stockton was held to just 130 yards through the air in what was surely his most disappointing performance since his pickup truck got a flat tire and he completely missed his chance to score Aerosmith tickets.
It was 17 years ago, in Nick Saban’s second season as Alabama’s head coach, that the Tide arrived in Athens for a “blackout” and stomped Matthew Stafford, A.J. Green and a star-studded Georgia team in a game that announced the new coach’s arrival as the conference’s standard. Whether DeBoer’s win will prove as significant depends entirely on where Alabama goes from here, but after a year of questions and criticism, the possibility no longer feels so far-fetched.
For the better part of three quarters, Oregon-Penn State felt as if Tony Petitti had accidentally cut and pasted an Iowa game into Happy Valley, but when Oregon scored on back-to-back drives to go up 17-3, the boos erupted from the white-clad faithful, the Nittany Lions appeared headed to another dismal defeat at the hands of an elite foe, and Franklin again remained frustratingly stoic, as if he was watching his laundry dry rather than seeing the football gods spite his team once again.
This is how close Oregon was to not being down on the overturned fumble call 👀
📺:NBC pic.twitter.com/62yfJoeORR
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 28, 2025
And then, just as suddenly, it all shifted. Drew Allar remembered he can throw the ball forward, Kaytron Allen delivered body blows in the run game befitting a heavyweight boxer, and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki flipped his play card around and realized he had been reading it upside down the whole time
Yes, it was still ultimately a loss for Penn State after Dillon Thieneman picked off Allar in the second overtime. Yes, Oregon’s win warrants ample praise, and the Ducks should comfortably move into the AP top three, as Dante Moore looks like a poised veteran, the corps of tailbacks is deep and dynamic, and the defensive front is utterly ferocious. And yes, Franklin’s reputation for falling short in big games will remain intact a little longer. He’s now 4-21 against AP top-10 opponents, though it seems unfair no one ever mentions he’s 12-0 against the MAC. But Saturday’s fourth quarter did feel different, as if this Penn State team had awoken from a long slumber and was finally now ready to play like a team capable of winning it all, and a Big Ten battle that includes Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana and the Nittany Lions should be among the nation’s best in the coming months.
And all of that was but the grand finale to a weekend that saw so much of the conventional wisdom upended.
Mississippi State‘s dream season nearly reached a new crescendo, but for a failed fourth-down try in overtime against Tennessee.
Florida State was riding high, then it hit a wall against Virginia, who forced the Seminoles into a second overtime, thwarted their final drive and then stormed the field with the pent-up enthusiasm of a stable of racehorses, all but throwing cash at ACC commissioner Jim Phillips to cover the fines before announcing he could keep the change.
Kiffin’s own daughter revealed on social media earlier this week that she was dating LSU star linebacker Whit Weeks, which might have been enough to rattle a lesser father. Not Kiffin though. His Rebels ran roughshod over LSU, as backup QB Trinidad Chambliss continued his unlikely ascent, accounting for 385 yards in a 24-19 win, even if it didn’t cover the total, as Kiffin had promised.
“I’m looking for Whit [Weeks] right now to see if we covered the over.”
Lane Kiffin after beating No. 4 LSU 😭 pic.twitter.com/YcBG6agyp7
— ESPN (@espn) September 27, 2025
It’s hard to blame Kiffin for the low total. LSU has now failed to crack 24 points in any of its four games against FBS competition this year.
The end result of the weekend is a playoff picture that looks as garbled and vague as ever.
Is Alabama back? Is Penn State a contender? Is Oregon the Big Ten’s best? Is Florida State cooked? Will Brian Kelly’s head explode like a piñata if LSU doesn’t figure out how to run the ball?
September provided more surprises than answers, which is all we could’ve asked for.
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Trends | Under the radar
Heisman five
Week 5 vibe check
Each week, big games help dictate the playoff landscape, but a lot of smaller shifts in the college football ecosystem can go unnoticed. We try to keep tabs on those here.
Trending up: Frustration at Southern Cal
USC was off to a 4-0 start and had climbed back into the AP Top 25. Illinois was coming off of a loss to Indiana so horrendous that a lesser coach than Bret Bielema would have faked his own death and started a new life in South America under the name Bert Gunderson.
So, advantage for the Trojans, right?
Of course not! This is USC, a team that would get lost in the drive-through at an In-N-Out Burger.
Despite Illinois twice fumbling inside the red zone, and despite USC driving 80 yards for a go-ahead touchdown with just 1:55 to play, there was really never any doubt what would happen Saturday, because of course, Lane Kiffin used his last wish on that enchanted monkey’s paw he bought at Ed Orgeron’s garage sale to put a curse on the program as revenge for firing him.
In any case, USC is now 13-12 in its past 25 games, dating back to 2023. As a general rule, if Trojans are that ineffective, there’s either a coaching change or the theft of a monarch’s wife by a rival nation-state. What this means for Lincoln Riley is complicated, as firing him would be extremely expensive and also result in so much exuberant laughter in Oklahoma that the wind created would risk another dust bowl situation.
Trending down: SEC job security
Saturday’s performance in Fayetteville might have been the point of no return for Sam Pittman at Arkansas. The Hogs lost for the third straight game, this time in horrific fashion as Notre Dame utterly shredded the D to the tune of 641 yards in a 56-13 win. Jeremiyah Love scored four times in the first half — two on receptions, two runs — and CJ Carr threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns in the win.
During the Razorbacks’ three-game losing streak, they have surrendered a whopping 129 points, which would normally make DC Travis Williams the most reviled coordinator of the Pittman era, but Dan Enos also worked there, so that honor is locked up.
Meanwhile, lurking in the shadows, Bobby Petrino’s diabolical scheme to regain power like the Empire building a second Death Star is finally coming to fruition.
Things are only slightly more secure for Auburn‘s Hugh Freeze, who was brought to The Plains with the expressed intent of ending Nick Saban’s dynasty and building an offensive juggernaut as he had done at Ole Miss and Liberty before. Turns out, Freeze managed the first job by default, with Saban retiring to spend more time with his insurance duck. The second task, however, has proven more difficult, and on Saturday, Auburn’s offense mustered just 155 total yards against Texas A&M, racking up more penalties (10) and as many punts (nine) as first downs.
Freeze is now 5-13 in SEC play since taking over at Auburn. Things are so bleak he’s already confirmed tee times for November, and Auburn boosters are texting Houston Nutt to file a FOIA for Freeze’s phone records.
Then there’s Mark Stoops, who’s hoping he can just fly under the radar until basketball season and then everyone will forget that Kentucky stinks again this year. The Wildcats were waxed 35-13 by South Carolina, and new starting QB Cutter Boley threw two costly interceptions amid another dismal offensive performance. Frankly, if a QB with as SEC a name as “Cutter Boley” can’t get the job done, there doesn’t seem to be any hope for UK to turn things around.
Trending up: Throwback celebrations
Kansas tight end Boden Groen went old-school after catching a touchdown pass early in the second half against Cincinnati, reintroducing the world to “The Dab,” which amazingly is now having a better year than “The Dabo.”
Haven’t seen someone hit the dab in ten years pic.twitter.com/zLCF2MjjcO
— Derek Duke (@DerekDuke25) September 27, 2025
Unfortunately, turning back the clock to the mid-2010s isn’t a good thing for Kansas, which spent most of that decade tying its shoelaces together, then running down a hill covered with banana peels. Predictably, the Jayhawks 34-30 lead with 1:45 to play evaporated quickly as Cincinnati engineered a brilliant 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to secure a 37-34 win.
The Bearcats then celebrated by doing the ice bucket challenge before riding hoverboards into the locker room while blaring “Old Town Road.”
Trending down: Second-half leads in the ACC
Wake Forest was on the brink of scripting the latest chapter in the best-selling memoir “Why the ACC Can’t Have Nice Things,” leading Georgia Tech by as many as 17 in the second half. But Wake let the lead slip away in part due to a controversial missed call in the final two minutes of regulation, and in part because of what Yellow Jackets coach Brent Key called a halftime “hard reset,” which presumably means they unplugged Haynes King and then plugged him back in again.
Wake had a chance to close out the game on a third-and-5 play with 1:48 to go. A Tech defender was clearly offsides, and QB Robby Ashford used the free play opportunity to throw deep. The pass was incomplete, the flag never came, and Wake had to punt — giving Tech a chance to kick a tying field goal and send the game to overtime. The Deacons failed to convert a 2-point try after a Demond Claiborne touchdown, and the Jackets held on for a 30-29 win.
Meanwhile, each new season of Pitt football continues to be akin to a trip to IKEA. It all begins with such optimism and a true sense of adventure, but soon enough devolves into a series of epithets and frustration until Pat Narduzzi is lost in the kitchen appliances section and all those Swedish meatballs suddenly aren’t sitting so well, and you’re screaming at your partner, “I don’t know why we needed a Holstëin in the first place! I was perfectly happy using some plywood atop a stack of cinder blocks!”
Anyway, Pitt blew a 17-point lead to Louisville and lost in embarrassing fashion for the second time in as many games, 34-27.
Trending up: Rivalry trophies
This year, the rivalry between UL Monroe and Arkansas State was dubbed the “Rice Bowl Rivalry” with an appropriately designed trophy to go with the new moniker. The Red Wolves had won the past 15 matchups in the series, but the best they had to show for it was some crowns they stole from a Burger King. But things were different this time around. ULM erased an early 10-0 deficit behind two TD passes from Aidan Armenta to pull off a 28-16 win.
3:20 until this baby is awarded pic.twitter.com/WVO7dcvoO0
— WarhawkReport (@warhawk_report) September 27, 2025
Trending down: Hoosier highlights
A week ago, Indiana looked as dominant as any team in the country. On Saturday, the Hoosiers faced Iowa in a far different scenario. Facing Iowa is like riding rollercoasters after a dinner at Golden Corral. It doesn’t matter how good-looking and successful you are, things are going to get gross.
And so it was that the Hoosiers staggered into the fourth quarter trailing 13-10, and after a late interception, looked to be on the verge of an upset.
Instead, Iowa did what Iowa does best: Stalled on a drive, missed a field goal, then turned the ball over on downs after an Indiana TD. The Hoosiers held on for a 20-15 win and immediately determined this game would be remembered like Season 2 of “Friday Night Lights,” a horrible misstep that no one considers canon.
Trending up: Big 12 high jinks
Who’s the best team in the Big 12? We didn’t know a month ago, we don’t know now, and there’s at least a 12% chance we’ll only find out in December after some sort of high stakes game of rock, paper, scissors.
The conference continues to be college football’s equivalent of your quirky uncle whom everyone loves, but no one trusts to babysit their kids, as Week 5 saw Houston stay undefeated after a raucous come-from-behind win in overtime against Oregon State, Iowa State shellack Arizona while utilizing the rare fake PAT, Arizona State reaffirm its place as a conference contender after a late rally against TCU, and Oklahoma State lose once again but this time while Mike Gundy was busy fly fishing in a shopping mall fountain.
The ol’ swinging gate ‼️
📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/cRP5MdaJ6a
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 27, 2025
This, of course, is what makes the Big 12 great. Everything is possible, and it’s entirely possible that by the end of October, Rich Rodriguez will have a Golden Retriever playing QB, Deion Sanders will have Shedeur don a fake mustache and attempt to rejoin Colorado, and Texas Tech will simply just pay Arizona State to forfeit the rest of the season.
Under-the-radar game of the week
Hawai’i outlasted Air Force 44-35 in a game that featured more than 1,000 yards of total offense, 41 points scored in the fourth quarter, 457 yards and three TD passes from Hawai’i QB Micah Alejado and a remarkable performance by the Rainbow Warriors, who converted 14 of 19 third-down tries. After the conclusion, the governor of Iowa proclaimed any footage of this game as contraband unfit for viewing.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Two weeks after firing head coach Brent Pry, who’d been 1-12 in one-possession games, Virginia Tech eked out a 23-21 victory over NC State, thanks in large part to the heroics of tailback Terion Stewart, who rushed for 175 yards in the game, including this 85-yarder.
0:35
Terion Stewart rips an 85-yard rush
Terion Stewart puts Virginia Tech in scoring position with an 85-yard run.
The win for the Hokies how sets up a solid chain of events in the transitive property championships: Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech, who beat NC State, who beat Virginia, who beat Florida State, who beat Alabama, who beat Georgia. Therefore Old Dominion is better than Georgia. T
Heisman five
The Heisman race was already a mess, but things took another turn this week when the presumed front-runner, Oklahoma‘s John Mateer, was lost for the foreseeable future following hand surgery, leading Arch Manning to note, “right, hand surgery! That’s what I have, too! That explains everything. Shoulder surgery. I mean, hand. Hand surgery.” Regardless, we’re revising our top five candidates after Week 5, and we’ll add Mateer back into the mix if he returns quickly enough to keep his Heisman hopes alive.
1. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
Mendoza wasn’t exactly sharp, but he did throw for a pair of scores in a win over the Hawkeyes. In Homer’s “Odyssey,” playing offense at Iowa is considered one of the most treacherous perils in the hero’s journey, just ahead of the Lotus-Eaters and just behind being drafted by the New York Jets.
2. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss
In three games without starter Austin Simmons, Ole Miss hasn’t missed a beat, as Chambliss — the transfer from Ferris State has emerged as one of college football’s best stories. He has helped the Rebels topple Arkansas, Tulane and LSU, he is averaging better than 10 yards per pass, and he has accounted for seven touchdowns and just one turnover. The only flaw in this amazing narrative is that he doesn’t have a twin brother named Tobago Chambliss who plays slot receiver.
3. Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia
Vandy is 5-0 for the first time since 2008, and much of the success is due to its star QB. Pavia, whose first season in college football coincided with the advent of the forward pass, has thrived, including a six-touchdown performance in Saturday’s 55-35 win over Utah State. After the game, Pavia even showed off his singing voice.
Diego Pavia sang the @VandyFootball alma mater with @AlyssaLang 😂⚓️ pic.twitter.com/KVIkxpVrL2
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 27, 2025
Not to be outdone, Manning quickly attempted to revive his own Heisman hopes by doing a passable karaoke rendition of “Islands in the Stream” with Steve Sarkisian at a local Applebees.
4. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith
The Buckeyes’ offense has been fairly conservative in two tougher matchups against Texas and, Saturday, vs. Washington. Still, Smith has shined, catching eight passes for 81 yards and a score in a 24-6 win over the Huskies. Afterwards, he taught Julian Sayin how to shave.
5. Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy
Another week, another 100-yard game for Hardy. The ULM transfer carried 24 times for 130 yards and three touchdowns in a win over UMass. But if he had stayed at his previous school, he’d be out celebrating with a Rice Bowl trophy right now, so it’s a mixed bag for Hardy.
Oregon’s win at Penn State catapulted the Ducks into the top three this week, but they weren’t the only movers on a statement Saturday where winning on the road provided an extra boost.
Welcome back, Alabama.
There’s a temporary ceiling, though, for some of these contenders, as the selection committee’s head-to-head tiebreaker is factoring into the ranking. It’s one of several tiebreakers they use when comparing teams, and as long as the teams have similar records, the group has historically leaned on the head-to-head result. That’s helping Florida State tremendously right now.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to-date, the ones with statement wins and/or multiple wins against respectable teams have the early edge.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be as teams enter the heart of conference play. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Canes had a bye week to prepare for their trip to Florida State, but entered this week ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — a statistic that has historically aligned with the selection committee’s top four teams. With Notre Dame’s resounding win at Arkansas, the Canes’ season-opening win against the Irish continues to shine. Miami’s wins against South Florida and Florida — both of which had bye weeks — continues to collectively help separate the Canes.
Why they could be lower: The Canes have won all four games at home — at a point in the season when other contenders have had to win tough games on the road. Both Ohio State and Oregon have now won tough conference road games.
Need to know: Saturday’s game against FSU could be Miami’s last game during the regular season against a ranked opponent. Right now, Miami is on track for a top four seed, which means a first-round bye. If the Canes lose to FSU — and/or if they finish as the ACC runner-up — this could impact their seeding because so many SEC teams have loaded schedules in the back half of the season.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gave the Canes a 63.6% chance to win. The Canes are projected to win each of their remaining games and have the best chance in the conference (67.9%) to reach the ACC title game.
Why they could be here: It wasn’t an easy trip to the West Coast, where the Buckeyes held a precarious 7-3 halftime lead against Washington, but they found a way. This was Ohio State’s first road game, and it took until the second half to find an offensive groove, but this was a respectable Big Ten win to complement the season-opener against Texas.
Why they could be lower: Oregon’s win at Penn State currently looks better than Ohio State’s home win against the Longhorns. The committee could value that one win more than Ohio State’s two against Texas and Washington.
Need to know: Two of Ohio State’s next three games are on the road — Oct. 11 at Illinois and Oct. 18 at Wisconsin. The Illini rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Indiana with a close win against USC on Saturday. That should keep them in the top 25 and give the Buckeyes another opportunity against a ranked opponent, which they might need if Texas struggles in the SEC and the Buckeyes don’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 against Penn State.
Why they could be here: The Ducks earned their first statement win — and they did it in double overtime on the road — but it was their first win against an FBS opponent above .500. Northwestern is 2-2, Oklahoma State is 1-3 and has already fired its head coach, Oregon State is 0-5 and Montana State is an FCS program. As much hype as there has been around Penn State, the Nittany Lions remain a team without any wins against Power 4 opponents.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has been dominant against the weaker teams and found a way to beat one of the best teams — on the road. The win at Penn State is better than Ohio State’s home win against Texas, and the Ducks have two road wins compared to none for the Canes.
Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, and it has a bye week to prepare for the Hoosiers on Oct. 11.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Indiana. This might be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face during the regular season following USC’s loss to Illinois.
Why they could be here: The Aggies were able to build upon their win at Notre Dame by beating Auburn, giving Texas A&M some staying power in the playoff race. It helped that the Irish won convincingly at Arkansas, meaning A&M’s victory in South Bend remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country. Wins against UTSA and Utah State aren’t going to help the Aggies’ résumé, but their defensive performance against Auburn will impress the committee.
Why they could be lower: Oklahoma also beat Auburn in similar fashion, and has a strong nonconference win against Michigan. The Sooners don’t have a road win on par with beating the Irish in South Bend, though. Ole Miss has a case to be ranked ahead of both of them because of its full body of work, which now includes three SEC wins and a win against Tulane.
Need to know: Saturday’s game against Mississippi State could be tougher than originally expected. The Bulldogs pushed Tennessee to overtime in Week 5. The Aggies should be favored to win their next three games (Mississippi State, Florida and at Arkansas). If they lose one of those games, it puts pressure on them to have a winning record against the remaining three ranked opponents: LSU, Mizzou and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. Even though the Tigers lost, their defense is still one of the best the Aggies will face, and they’ll have home field advantage — possibly at night.
Why they could be here: The Rebels knocked off LSU, and have now won four straight games against respectable opponents, including three SEC teams (LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky). It also helped that Tulane beat Tulsa, and the Green Wave remains in contention for a playoff spot as one of the five highest ranked conference champions if they can win the American. Overall, this is one of the stronger résumés of the contenders, but Ole Miss is also passing the eye test as a complete team.
Why they could be lower: Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 4-5, and Georgia State is 1-3 in the Sun Belt.
Need to know: The Rebels have one of the more winnable remaining SEC schedules of the contenders, with back-to-back trips to Georgia and Oklahoma their biggest looming obstacles. The undefeated Rebels also have something key to impressing the selection committee — two quarterbacks capable of starting. The play of backup quarterbacks is critical to the selection process (it kept undefeated ACC champ Florida State out of the CFP in 2023, but helped Ohio State in during the 2014 season). With Austin Simmons injured, it’s clear backup Trinidad Chambliss is more than capable of leading a team toward an SEC title run.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Rebels also have an Oct. 25 trip to Oklahoma, but it’s unclear if the Sooners will have injured starting quarterback John Mateer back by then (unlikely).
Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye and the committee would rank them based on what they’ve done to-date — with quarterback John Mateer in the lineup. The committee doesn’t project ahead, so the hand injury he suffered in the first quarter isn’t a factor in this week’s prediction. Wins against Auburn and Michigan are still among the best in the country, and the nonconference win against the Wolverines can continue to help separate the Sooners from other teams that played weaker schedules.
Why they could be higher: Oklahoma was passing the eye test with Mateer in the lineup, and the committee doesn’t typically move teams around if they don’t play — unless teams around them are shuffled. The group could give the Sooners more credit for wins against Michigan and Auburn than Ole Miss’ wins against Kentucky and Arkansas. Still, it’s hard for OU to win a debate against the Rebels’ entire résumé, which now includes the LSU win.
Need to know: The committee’s protocol requires their consideration of factors like injuries to key players. If Oklahoma loses a game or two with Mateer sidelined, the committee will understand the circumstance. That doesn’t mean it’s a hall pass to play poorly, but it does mean it can be overcome. A two-loss OU team that rebounds and runs the table with Mateer in the lineup (and playing like he did before he was injured), is almost a shoe-in for the playoff. They’d have to beat all ranked opponents in the second half of the season. The timeline for Mateer’s return, though, is uncertain. And as long as he’s out of the lineup, the committee will rank the Sooners based on if they look like a top-12 team with sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. in the lineup.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. This is suddenly an even bigger challenge, as Mateer should still be recovering from hand surgery. ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns a 66.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The head-to-head with Alabama still looms large because it’s one of the tiebreakers the committee uses to help rank teams with comparable records. As long as FSU and Bama both have one loss, the committee would likely refer to its protocol. The group would also recognize Friday’s loss was in double overtime on the road, and so far, Virginia is a respectable 4-1 opponent. Virginia athletic director Carla Williams is a member of the selection committee, and while she can’t vote or participate in discussions about UVA, she can give information about what she saw from the Noles, and can provide information about her program.
Why they could be lower: The Noles didn’t pass the eye test. They were beaten up front, made two many mistakes early, and were playing from behind most of the game.
Need to know: FSU now has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game, according to ESPN Analytics, behind Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Miami. This might be FSU’s last chance to impress the committee against a ranked opponent during the regular season.
Why they could be here: The Tide reasserted itself as a playoff contender, winning their first statement game of the season after a season-opening loss at Florida State. That head-to-head result, though, is keeping the Tide behind the Noles because it’s one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to rank comparable teams. Still, it was enough to push Alabama back into the playoff conversation after three straight wins and it keeps the Tide in the hunt to win the SEC.
Why they could be higher: The win at Georgia was on the road, and the Tide passed the eye test — something Florida State didn’t do this week.
Need to know: Alabama entered Saturday with the seventh toughest remaining schedule in the country, as five of the next seven opponents are ranked. Saturday’s win at Georgia gives the Tide a slight cushion in the SEC race.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Tennessee. The game against LSU won’t be easy, but Bama’s offense looks better. The Vols gave Georgia fits and could do the same to Bama.
Why they could be here: The head-to-head loss to the Tide will keep Georgia below Alabama, but the same tiebreaker will keep Georgia ahead of the Vols. The win against Tennessee still looks good, even as the Vols struggled to beat Mississippi State. The overtime win against Tennessee is all they have, though, as home wins against Austin Peay and Marshall don’t help their case.
Why they could be lower: Georgia was fortunate to beat Tennessee, and Indiana is still undefeated.
Need to know: Rival Georgia Tech is still undefeated following a scare against Wake Forest on Saturday and should be favored in each of its games leading into the regular-season finale.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels might be better than last year, when they had what many believed to be a more talented team.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers escaped on Saturday with a 20-15 win at Iowa, a notoriously difficult place to play. A close win is better than a loss, just ask fellow contenders LSU and Florida State which dropped road games this week. It was the fewest points IU had scored this season, but Indiana now has back-to-back Big Ten wins and its first road win. It also helped IU that Illinois beat USC, further legitimizing the Hoosiers’ 63-10 beatdown of the Illini.
Why they could be lower: If IU is below Penn State after the Nittany Lions lost at home to Oregon, it would simply because more people in the committee meeting room think PSU is the more talented team. It would be tough to justify, though, given Penn State’s three wins weren’t against Power 4 teams. The committee might not think Illinois is a top 25 team, also leaving the Hoosiers without a win against a ranked opponent.
Need to know: The Hoosiers have a bye week to prepare for their Oct. 11 trip to Oregon. IU doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan, but the Hoosiers will have a more difficult path to the playoff this year than last with road trips to Oregon and Penn State still looming.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. The Ducks’ win at Penn State was proof the defending Big Ten champs are still at the top of the league, along with Ohio State. If IU could pull off the upset in Autzen, it would be one of the biggest of the season.
Why they could be here: The loss to Georgia is keeping the Vols behind the Bulldogs, and they got a scare on Saturday at Mississippi State before winning in overtime. The season-opening win against Syracuse doesn’t look as impressive after the Orange lost 38-3 to Duke. Unlike LSU, though, the Vols haven’t had any trouble finding points.
Why they could be lower: The Vols lost at home to Georgia, which took a slight hit after the Bulldogs lost to Alabama. Meanwhile, LSU lost on the road to undefeated Ole Miss. It’s possible the committee would have LSU ahead of Tennessee and Penn State.
Need to know: The Vols have a bye week to prepare for Arkansas before back-to-back SEC road games against Alabama and Kentucky.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. The Tide has improved each week since its loss to Florida State and is favored to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions are a talented team, but don’t have the résumé to show for it. With wins against Villanova, FIU and Nevada, Penn State has the worst résumé of all the contenders. The committee considers how teams lose, too, and the gap between Oregon and Penn State clearly isn’t that wide.
Why they could be lower: LSU lost on the road to an undefeated Ole Miss team, while PSU lost at home. LSU also has wins against Clemson and Florida, and while those teams have struggled this year, they’re still better than what PSU has on its résumé.
Need to know: If Penn State doesn’t beat Ohio State, it’s not a lock to reach the playoff at 10-2. This is already a dangerous spot for the Nittany Lions, as they would be bumped out of the CFP to make room the fourth and fifth highest-ranked conference champions. In this scenario, both the Big 12 and American champs are ranked outside of the projected top 10. If Penn State loses to Ohio State, it has to beat Indiana to have a chance.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. If the Nittany Lions couldn’t beat Oregon at home, how are they going to beat the defending national champs on the road?
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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Jake Trotter
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — After their latest loss to a top-10 opponent, Nittany Lions coach James Franklin said he understands the growing frustration of the Penn State fan base.
The third-ranked Nittany Lions fell 30-24 in double overtime to No. 6 Oregon on Saturday night in front of a “White Out” crowd at Beaver Stadium.
The defeat dropped Franklin to 4-21 at Penn State against AP top-10 opponents, including 1-18 against top-10 Big Ten teams.
“I get that narrative and it’s really not a narrative — it’s factual. It’s the facts,” Franklin said. “I try to look at the entire picture and what we’ve been able to do here. But at the end of the day, we got to find a way to win those games. I totally get it. And I take ownership. I take responsibility.”
Franklin’s .160 winning percentage against AP top-10 teams is tied for the third-worst record by a coach (minimum of 25 games) at a single school since the poll era began in 1936, according to ESPN Research.
“We have a passionate fan base,” Franklin said. “When we win, there’s nothing better. When we lose, there’s nothing worse. So, I get it. I get the frustration that comes with a fan base that is invested and cares.”
The Nittany Lions nearly pulled off their biggest fourth-quarter comeback since 2016 against Ohio State — which remains Franklin’s only Big Ten win against a top-10 opponent.
Penn State trailed 17-3, but senior quarterback Drew Allar engineered back-to-back touchdown drives to send the game to overtime. The Nittany Lions then scored a touchdown on the third play of the opening overtime possession.
But the Ducks answered with a touchdown, then scored another on the first play of the second overtime.
On the ensuing snap, Allar threw an interception to Dillon Thieneman, sealing the Ducks’ dramatic victory.
“I tried to get the ball over the guy’s head,” Allar said. “He jumped up and caught the ball.”
During Big Ten media days over the summer, Allar said it was time for Penn State “to get over that hump” in big games. Allar’s fourth-quarter interception in the College Football Playoff semifinals last season set up Notre Dame’s game-winning field goal and ended Penn State’s season.
Allar, Penn State’s starter since 2023, is 0-6 in his career against AP top-6 opponents. He has one victory against a top-10 team, which occurred in last year’s CFP quarterfinals against Boise State.
“Obviously, it hurts,” Allar said. “We had our opportunities. … But it’s a long season ahead of us. We’re going to have more opportunities to fix this — and I’ll be the first one to go into the fire.”
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