The dust is settling. The damage is deep. And the question remains, especially in the absence of any clear direction from Vladimir Putin – what happens next?
Expect the Kremlin to deliver a bit more of the “business as usual”, “nothing to see here” Putin diary appointment videos.
We have video of the defence minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting a Western command forward operating base apparently in the “special military operation zone”, supposedly this morning, though Telegram chatter is busily debating whether it was filmed before the coup took place.
And Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was presumably told in no uncertain terms to keep his head down in Belarus for the time being, even if he is not the type who likes to keep quiet for long.
So what will happen to the top military command, who have just weathered weeks of criticism and a short-lived but dangerous armed rebellion?
How much credibility do they still have in the eyes of their men when thousands if not hundreds of thousands serving in the Russian armed forces must have watched those Prigozhin videos and felt a few home truths?
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2:55
Has Wagner rebellion weakened Putin?
Prigozhin was good at taking the side of his troops, pointing out the pointlessness of the whole Ukraine exercise, raging against the hideous and unnecessary loss of life.
That must mean a good deal if you’re sitting on the frontlines wondering if you’re next.
Putin famously favours loyalty and Shoigu and his chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov have been nothing but loyal.
The commander-in-chief will also not want to look as though he has been forced to bow to pressure, especially not from Prigozhin who he has just denounced as a traitor.
But there is now speculation that he is casting around for alternatives.
Governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, is one of those mentioned as a possible Shoigu successor.
If there is a reshuffling, then it will probably happen once the dust has settled.
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It was also apparent from the whole contracts debacle that Shoigu – and therefore Putin – must have decided that the Ukraine war could and should now only be handled by the ministry of defence and that all other freelance units, Wagner being the most prominent, should be incorporated into the fold.
That was an indication that Shoigu was on the up.
It was probably also the reason why Prigozhin decided to chance it, demanding Wagner be seen on an equal but separate footing to the Russian armed forces. Folie de grandeur, perhaps.
So if Putin replaces Shoigu now, he looks weaker still.
Though I will finish with the caveat, given Saturday’s lightning events, that all is unpredictable and remains so, despite the apparent calm of the last 24 hours.
Image: An Israeli attack in Tehran, Iran, ahead of the ceasefire. Pic: Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters
Without such preparations, and sometimes even with them, ceasefires will tend to be breached – perhaps by accident, perhaps because one side does not exercise full control over its own forces, perhaps as a result of false alarms, or even because a third party – a guerrilla group or a militia, say – choose that moment to launch an attack of their own.
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1:23
Timeline of Israel-Iran conflict so far
The important question is whether a ceasefire breach is just random and unfortunate, or else deliberate and systemic – where someone is actively trying to break it.
Either way, ceasefires have to be politically reinforced all the time if they are to hold.
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0:45
Furious Trump lashes out at Israel and Iran
All sides may need to rededicate themselves to it at regular intervals, mainly because, as genuine enemies, they won’t trust each other and will remain naturally suspicious at every twitch and utterance from the other side.
This is where an external power like the United States plays a critical part.
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If enemies like Israel and Iran naturally distrust each other and need little incentive to “hit back” in some way at every provocation, it will take US pressure to make them abide by a ceasefire that may be breaking down.
Appeals to good nature are hardly relevant in this respect. An external arbiter has to make the continuance of a ceasefire a matter of hard national interest to both sides.
And that often requires as much bullying as persuasion. It may be true that “blessed are the peacemakers”.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has given a wide-ranging interview to Sky News in which he was asked about the prospect of Russia attacking NATO, whether he would cede land as part of a peace deal and how to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.
“We believe that, starting from 2030, Putin can have significantly greater capabilities,” he said. “Today, Ukraine is holding him up, he has no time to drill the army.”
But while Mr Zelenskyy conceded his ambition to join NATO “isn’t possible now”, he asserted long term “NATO needs Ukrainians”.
US support ‘may be reduced’
Asked about his views on the Israel-Iran conflict, and the impact of a wider Middle East war on Ukraine, Mr Zelenskyy accepted the “political focus is changing”.
“This means that aid from partners, above all from the United States, may be reduced,” he said.
“He [Putin] will increase strikes against us to use this opportunity, to use the fact that America’s focus is changing over to the Middle East.”
On the subject of Mr Putin’s close relationship with Iran, which has supplied Russia with attack drones, Mr Zelenskyy said: “The Russians will feel the advantage on the battlefield and it will be difficult for us.”
Image: Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaking to Mark Austin
Trump and Putin ‘will never be friends’
Mr Zelenskyy was sceptical about Mr Putin’s relationship with Donald Trump.
“I truly don’t know what relationship Trump has with Putin… but I am confident that President Trump understands that Ukrainians are allies to America, and the real existential enemy of America is Russia.
“They may be short-term partners, but they will never be friends.”
On his relationship with Mr Trump, Mr Zelenskyy was asked about whether he felt bullied by the US president during their spat in the Oval Office.
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“I believe I conducted myself honestly. I really wanted America to be a strong partner… and to be honest, I was counting on that,” he said.
In a sign of potential frustration, the Ukrainian president added: “Indeed, there were things that don’t bring us closer to ending the war. There were some media… standing around us… talking about some small things like my suit. It’s not the main thing.”
Mr Zelenskyy was clear he supported both a ceasefire and peace talks, adding that he would enter negotiations to understand “if real compromises are possible and if there is a real way to end the war”.
But he avoided directly saying whether he would be willing to surrender four annexed regions of Ukraine, as part of any peace deal.
“I don’t believe that he [Putin] is interested in these four regions. He wants to occupy Ukraine. Putin wants more,” he said.
“Putin is counting on a slow occupation of Ukraine, the reduction in European support and America standing back from this war completely… plus the removal of sanctions.
“But I think the strategy should be as follows: Pressure on Putin with political sanctions, with long-range weapons… to force him to the negotiating table.”
Russia ‘using UK tech for missiles’
On Monday, Mr Zelenskyy met Sir Keir Starmer and agreed to share battlefield technology, boosting Ukraine’s drone production, which Mr Zelenskyy described as a “strong step forward”.
But he also spoke about the failure to limit Russia’s access to crucial technology being used in military hardware.
He said “components for missiles and drones” from countries “including the UK” were being used by Russian companies who were not subject to sanctions.
“It is vitally important for us, and we’re handing these lists [of Russian companies] over to our partners and asking them to apply sanctions. Otherwise, the Russians will have missiles,” he added.
At least 25 people have been killed after Israeli forces opened fire towards people waiting for aid trucks in Gaza, according to witnesses and hospitals.
The Awda hospital in the Nuseirat refugee camp, which received the victims, said the Palestinians were waiting for the trucks on a road south of Wadi Gaza.
Witnesses told the Associated Press (AP) news agency Israeli forces opened fire as people were advancing to be close to the approaching trucks.
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2:46
Israeli ambassador challenged on Gaza deaths
The Awda hospital said another 146 Palestinians were wounded. Among them were 62 in a critical condition, who were transferred to other hospitals in central Gaza, it added.
In the central town of Deir al-Balah, the Al Aqsa Martyrs hospital said it received the bodies of six people who were killed in the same incident.
“It was a massacre,” one witness, Ahmed Halawa, said.
He said tanks and drones fired at people, “even as we were fleeing – many people were either martyred or wounded”.
Another witness, Hossam Abu Shahada, said drones were flying over the area, watching the crowds. Then there was gunfire from tanks and drones, leaving a “chaotic and bloody” scene as people attempted to escape.
He said he saw at least three people lying on the ground motionless and many others wounded as he fled.
The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the reports.
Philippe Lazzarini, the head of the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency, described the aid delivery mechanism in Gaza as “an abomination that humiliates and degrades desperate people”.
He added: “It is a death trap, costing more lives than it saves.”
A spokesperson for the UN’s Human Rights Office said: “The weaponisation of food for civilians, in addition to restricting or preventing their access to life-sustaining services, constitutes a war crime and, under certain circumstances, may constitute elements of other crimes under international law.”
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Around 56,000 Palestinians have been killed during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry. The ministry says more than half of the dead were women and children, but does not distinguish between civilians and militants in its count.
The war began after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, when militants stormed across the border and killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took another 251 hostages. Most of the hostages have been released in ceasefire agreements.