The dust is settling. The damage is deep. And the question remains, especially in the absence of any clear direction from Vladimir Putin – what happens next?
Expect the Kremlin to deliver a bit more of the “business as usual”, “nothing to see here” Putin diary appointment videos.
We have video of the defence minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting a Western command forward operating base apparently in the “special military operation zone”, supposedly this morning, though Telegram chatter is busily debating whether it was filmed before the coup took place.
And Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was presumably told in no uncertain terms to keep his head down in Belarus for the time being, even if he is not the type who likes to keep quiet for long.
So what will happen to the top military command, who have just weathered weeks of criticism and a short-lived but dangerous armed rebellion?
How much credibility do they still have in the eyes of their men when thousands if not hundreds of thousands serving in the Russian armed forces must have watched those Prigozhin videos and felt a few home truths?
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Has Wagner rebellion weakened Putin?
Prigozhin was good at taking the side of his troops, pointing out the pointlessness of the whole Ukraine exercise, raging against the hideous and unnecessary loss of life.
That must mean a good deal if you’re sitting on the frontlines wondering if you’re next.
Putin famously favours loyalty and Shoigu and his chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov have been nothing but loyal.
The commander-in-chief will also not want to look as though he has been forced to bow to pressure, especially not from Prigozhin who he has just denounced as a traitor.
But there is now speculation that he is casting around for alternatives.
Governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, is one of those mentioned as a possible Shoigu successor.
If there is a reshuffling, then it will probably happen once the dust has settled.
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It was also apparent from the whole contracts debacle that Shoigu – and therefore Putin – must have decided that the Ukraine war could and should now only be handled by the ministry of defence and that all other freelance units, Wagner being the most prominent, should be incorporated into the fold.
That was an indication that Shoigu was on the up.
It was probably also the reason why Prigozhin decided to chance it, demanding Wagner be seen on an equal but separate footing to the Russian armed forces. Folie de grandeur, perhaps.
So if Putin replaces Shoigu now, he looks weaker still.
Though I will finish with the caveat, given Saturday’s lightning events, that all is unpredictable and remains so, despite the apparent calm of the last 24 hours.
It’s a year since the US put Donald Trump back in the White House and I’ve spent this anniversary week in Florida and in Pennsylvania – two worlds in one country where I found two such contrasting snapshots of Trump’s America.
There are many ways to reflect on the successes and failures of the past year. Different issues matter to different people. But the thing which matters to all Americans is money.
The cost of living was a key factor in Donald Trump’s victory. He promised to make the country more affordable again. So: how’s he done?
On Wednesday, exactly a year since Americans went to the polls, the president was in Miami. He had picked this city and a particular crowd for his anniversary speech.
I was in the audience at the America Business Forum as he told wealthy entrepreneurs and investors how great life is now.
“One year ago we were a dead country, now we’re considered the hottest country in the world.” he told them to cheers. “Record high, record high, record high…”
The vibe was glitzy and wealthy. These days, these are his voters; his crowd.
“After just one year since that glorious election, I’m thrilled to say that America is back, America is back bigger, better, stronger than ever.” he said.
“We’ve done really well. I think it’s the best nine months, they say, of any president. And I really believe that if we can have a few more nine months like this, you’d be very happy. You’d be very satisfied.”
There was little question here that people are happy.
Image: Liz Ciborowski says Trump has been good for the economy
“Trump’s been a good thing?” I asked one attendee, Liz Ciborowski.
“Yes. He has really pushed for a lot of issues that are really important for our economy,” she said.
“I’m an investor,” said another, Andrea.
“I’m a happy girl. I’m doing good,” she said with a laugh.
Image: Andrea says she’s happy with how the economy is faring
A year on from his historic victory, the president was, notably, not with the grassroots folk in the places that propelled him back to the White House.
He had chosen to be among business leaders in Miami. Safe crowd, safe state, safe space.
But there was just one hint in his speech which seemed to acknowledge the reality that should be a concern for him.
“We have the greatest economy right now,” he said, adding: “A lot of people don’t see that.”
That is the crux of it: many people beyond the fortunate here don’t feel the “greatest economy” he talks about. And many of those people are in the places that delivered Trump his victory.
That’s the untold story of the past year.
A thousand miles to the north of Miami is another America – another world.
Steelton, Pennsylvania sits in one of Donald Trump’s heartlands. But it is not feeling the beat of his greatest economy. Not at all.
At the local steel union, I was invited to attend a meeting of a group of steel workers. It was an intimate glimpse into a hard, life-changing moment for the men.
The steel plant is shutting down and they were listening to their union representative explaining what happens next.
Image: David Myers used to be employed at the steelworks
The conversation was punctuated with all the words no one wants to hear: laid off, severance, redundancy.
“For over 100 years, my family has been here working. And I was planning on possibly one day having my son join me, but I don’t know if that’s a possibility now,” former employee David Myers tells me.
“And…” he pauses. “Sorry I’m getting a little emotional about it. We’ve been supplying America with railroad tracks for over a century and a half, and it feels weird for it to be coming to an end.”
Cleveland Cliffs Steelton plant is closing because of weakening demand, according to its owners. Their stock price has since surged. Good news for the Miami crowd, probably. It is the irony between the two Americas.
Down at the shuttered plant, it’s empty, eerie and depressing. It is certainly not the image or the vision that Donald Trump imagined for his America.
Pennsylvania, remember, was key to propelling Trump back to the White House. In this swing state, they swung to his promises – factories reopened and life more affordable.
Up the road, conversations outside the town’s government-subsidised homes frame the challenges here so starkly.
“How much help does the community need?” I asked a man running the local food bank.
Image: Elder Melvin Watts is a community organiser
“As much as they can get. I mean, help is a four-letter word but it has a big meaning. So help!” community organiser Elder Melvin Watts said.
I asked if he thought things were worse than a year ago.
“Yes sir. I believe they needed it then and they need it that much more now. You know it’s not hard to figure that out. The cost of living is high.”
Nearby, I met a woman called Sandra.
Image: Sandra says it’s getting harder to make ends meet
“It’s been harder, and I’m a hard-working woman.” she told me. “I don’t get no food stamps, I don’t get none of that. You’ve got to take care of them bills, eat a little bit or don’t have the lights on. Then you have people like Mr Melvin, he’s been out here for years, serving the community.”
Inside Mr Melvin’s food bank, a moment then unfolded that cut to the heart of the need here.
A woman called Geraldine Santiago arrived, distressed, emotional and then overwhelmed by the boxes of food available to her.
“We’ll help you…” Mr Melvin said as she sobbed.
Image: Geraldine’s welfare has been affected by the shutdown
Geraldine is one of 40 million Americans now not receiving the full nutritional assistance programme, known as SNAP, and usually provided by the federal government.
SNAP benefits have stopped because the government remains shut down amid political deadlock.
I watched Geraldine’s rollercoaster emotions spilling out – from desperation to gratitude at this moment of respite. She left with a car boot full of food.
A year on from his victory, Donald Trump continues to frame himself as the “America First” president and now with an economy transformed. But parts of America feel far, far away.
Pirates firing machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades have boarded a tanker off the coast of Somalia.
Greek shipping company Latsco Marine Management confirmed its vessel, Hellas Aphrodite, had been attacked in the early hours of Thursday.
The tanker, which was carrying fuel, was en route from India to South Africa when a “security incident” took place, the firm said.
“All 24 crew are safe and accounted for and we remain in close contact with them,” it added in a statement.
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The crew members took shelter in the ship’s “citadel”, or fortified safe room, and remain there, an official from maritime security company Diaplous said.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency issued an alert to warn ships in the area.
It located the vessel 560 nautical miles southeast of Eyl, Somalia, in the Indian Ocean. Eyl became famous in the mid-2000s as the centre of a string of piracy attacks.
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“The Master of a vessel has reported being approached by one small craft on its stern. The small craft fired small arms and RPGs [rocket-propelled grenades] towards the vessel,” UKMTO said in a statement.
EU forces move in on tanker
The European Union’s Operation Atalanta, a counter-piracy mission around the Horn of Africa, said one of its assets was “close to the incident” and “ready to take the appropriate actions”.
That EU force has responded to other recent pirate attacks in the area and had issued a recent alert that a pirate group was operating off Somalia and assaults were “almost certain” to happen.
Private security firm Ambrey has claimed that Somali pirates were operating from an Iranian fishing boat they had seized and had opened fire on the tanker.
Thursday’s attack comes after another vessel, the Cayman Islands-flagged Stolt Sagaland, found itself targeted in a suspected pirate attack that included both its armed security force and the attackers shooting at each other, the EU force said.
The vessel’s operator Stolt-Nielsen confirmed there was an attempted attack, early on 3 November, which was unsuccessful.
Somali pirate gangs have been relatively inactive in recent years. In May 2024, suspected pirates boarded the Liberian-flagged vessel Basilisk. EU naval forces later rescued the 17 crew members.
Meanwhile, the last hijacking took place in December 2023, when the Maltese-flagged Ruen was taken by assailants to the Somali coast before Indian naval forces freed the crew and arrested the attackers.
Hellas Aphrodite was en route from Sikka, India, to Durban, South Africa.
The Malta-flagged tanker is described as an oil/chemical tanker, 183m long and 32m wide, which was built in 2016, according to vesselfinder.com.