Retirement talk surrounding Thomas, Alito raises stakes for 2024 election

Published

2 years ago

June 28, 2023

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Lawmakers are looking ahead to the 2024 election as a pivotal opportunity to shape the future of the Supreme Court because of the possibility that conservative Justices Clarence Thomas, 75, and Samuel Alito, 73, could retire.

Democrats are worried that if Biden loses and the GOP wins the Senate majority, it could allow a GOP president to replace both men with younger conservatives who could rule far into the future.

“It’s critical. President Biden, who I feel confident will be reelected, needs to be able to put more judges on the bench, federal judges, including Supreme Court. It is absolutely critical that the Senate remain in Democratic hands,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who will retire at the end of next year.

Stabenow warned that if Republicans flip the White House and Senate and replace Thomas and Alito with younger conservatives, “it would be devastating for anyone who cares about privacy and their own personal freedom,” alluding to last year’s 6-3 Supreme Court opinion that overturned the constitutional right to an abortion and raised questions about other rights protected by the 14th Amendment.

Republicans also see high stakes in next year’s elections because of the court.

“Probably the next president will have a chance to appoint another member of the court,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. “I expect that you’d see, over the course between now and the end of the next [presidential] term, probably another retirement or two.”

Hawley said replacing older conservatives such as Thomas and Alito with younger ones could create an “enduring majority,” but he cautioned that it’s tough to predict how a justice’s opinions might evolve over years on the Supreme Court.

“Republicans have had the majority of Supreme Court appointments for decades now and have not succeeded in getting a stable conservative majority on that court until very recently,” he said. “Does the next election matter for the court? I think it really does. I don’t know how much of a [conservative] majority it is. I don’t know how stable it is.”

Republican appointees now hold a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, with Chief Justice John Roberts, 68, emerging as the most likely swing vote since the retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy in 2018.

Among the Democratic appointees, Obama-nominated Justice Sonia Sotomayor, 69, is the oldest. Justice Elena Kagan, another Obama appointee, is 63 and Ketanji Brown Jackson, whom President Biden put on the court, is 52.

The remaining three justices, Neil Gorsuch, 55, Brett Kavanaugh, 58, and Amy Coney Barrett, 51, were appointed by former President Trump.

The Supreme Court’s importance to the balance of political power in the United States was underscored once again Tuesday, when a 6-3 majority ruled to reject a legal theory that would have given state legislatures nearly unlimited power to set rules for federal elections, without judicial restraint.

It was another decision that showed justices don’t always march in line with the party of the president who appointed them. Roberts wrote the majority opinion, which was joined by the court’s three liberals as well as Coney Barrett and Kavanaugh. Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch dissented.

The conservative majority now on the court is likely to be there for some time, regardless of what happens with Alito and Thomas.

An analysis of the court’s projected composition by academics at three prestigious schools suggested the next time the majority of justices will be appointed by a Democrat is likely to be around 2065.

It found that the Democrats’ failure to confirm Obama-nominee Merrick Garland in 2016, combined with the death in 2016 of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who was quickly replaced by Trump, “reduced its likely control of the court by about 19 years out of the next 100 and increased the number of years until the party takes control again by 36 years.”

The study caught the attention of judicial reform advocates on both sides of the ideological spectrum who say it further highlights the stakes of next year’s presidential and Senate races.

“I do think that the 2024 election is important. I do think Alito and Thomas will be getting up there in age, and there’s quite a real possibility that replacements for them could be in order in the next four-year presidential window,” said Brian Fallon, co-founder and executive director of Demand Justice, which seeks to restore “ideological balance and legitimacy” to the courts.

Fallon noted that prominent Republicans dropped hints about wanting to see Thomas retire while Trump was president.

“It’s hugely important to win the upcoming election, and I think the court will be more salient of an issue than ever,” he said. “It’s important to win the next election because if there is going be an opportunity to replace a Thomas or Alito, you don’t want to miss it by not winning a Senate race here or there and preventing us from filling a seat. But we shouldn’t delude ourselves into thinking that the court’s balance is going to be shifted anytime soon just by winning a few elections.”

Carrie Campbell Severino, the president of JCN, a conservative advocacy group that favors “the Founders’ vision of a nation of limited government” observed that “if the next president has the opportunity to appoint a Supreme Court justice, that person could easily serve another 30 years.”

She also questioned whether a conservate majority on the Supreme Court will really last as long as some studies have predicted. “It strikes me as pretty optimistic,” she said.

Senate Democrats have an uphill battle to keep their majority after the 2024 election; they have to defend three highly vulnerable seats in Ohio, Montana and West Virginia, while Republicans don’t have any seats in real danger of flipping.

Democrats also have to worry about the future of independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (Ariz.) seat, which now counts in the Democrats’ column for the purpose of determining the majority. She hasn’t said whether she will run for reelection.

The battle for the White House also is seen as a jump ball. Watch live: Blinken discusses Biden administration foreign policy at Council on Foreign Relations Economic optimism best since early 2022, Gallup finds

A Morning Consult poll published Tuesday showed Trump leading Biden in a hypothetical matchup for the first time, 44 percent to 41 percent.

The same poll showed Trump trouncing his nearest Republican rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 57 percent to 19 percent, among 3,650 potential Republican primary voters nationwide.

A Morning Consult poll in April showed Biden leading Trump by 1 percentage point.

Politics

The ‘£7bn’ government secret

Published

51 mins ago

July 18, 2025

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👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

Who knew what about the Afghan data leak? And could anyone in parliament have done more to help scrutinise the government at the time of the superinjunction? Harriet thinks so.

So in this episode, Beth, Ruth, and Harriet talk about the massive breach, the secret court hearings, and the constitutional chaos it’s unleashed.

Plus – the fallout from the latest Labour rebellion. Four MPs have lost the whip – officially for repeated defiance, but unofficially? A government source called it “persistent knobheadery”.

So is Keir Starmer tightening his grip or losing control? And how does this compare to rebellions of Labour past?

Oh and singer Chesney Hawkes gets an unexpected mention.

Responding to claims in the podcast about whether Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle could have scrutinised the government, a Commons spokesperson said: “As has been made clear, Mr Speaker was himself under a superinjunction, and so would have been under severe legal restrictions regarding speaking about this. He would have had no awareness which organisations or individuals were and were not already aware of this matter.

“The injunction could not constrain proceedings in parliament and between being served with the injunction in September 2023 and the 2024 General Election Mr Speaker granted four UQs on matters relating to Afghan refugees and resettlement schemes.

“Furthermore, as set out in the Justice and Security Act 2013, the Speaker has no powers to refer matters to the Intelligence and Security Committee.”

World

England through to semi-finals of Women’s Euros after beating Sweden on penalties

Published

51 mins ago

July 18, 2025

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England through to semi-finals of Women's Euros after beating Sweden on penalties

England have booked their place in the semi-finals of the Women’s Euros after knocking out Sweden.

The Lionesses won 3-2 on penalties at Stadion Letzigrund in Zurich, Switzerland, after clawing their way back to take the game into extra-time.

The defending champions had been 2-0 down at half-time after goals from Sweden’s Kosovare Asllani and Stina Blackstenius in the quarter-final clash.

England then levelled matters towards the end of normal time. Lucy Bronze delivered the first England goal on 79 minutes, assisted by substitute Chloe Kelly. Two minutes later, Michelle Agyemang followed suit, taking the score to 2-2.

After a goalless extra-time, it was time for penalties.

Alessia Russo kicked things off, finding the back of the net for England, before Lauren James, Alex Greenwood, Beth Mead and Grace Clinton had their attempts saved by Sweden’s Jennifer Falk.

The game was sent into sudden death after Falk went face-to-face with England’s Hannah Hampton but sent the ball flying over the crossbar.

It all came down to Sweden’s seventh penalty after Bronze sensationally scored, with 18-year-old Smilla Holmberg missing the chance to send her team through.

England will next face Italy in the semi-finals in Geneva on Tuesday.

‘That was crazy’

England boss Sarina Wiegman described the action as “one of the hardest games I’ve ever watched”.

“We could have been out of the game three or four times, when you’re 2-0 at half-time it’s not good,” she said after the match.

“Although we started really bad, at the end it got better, but we didn’t create anything so we had to change shape, and we score two goals – that was crazy.

“We miss a lot [of penalties], and they miss even more. I need to decompress, I think.”

Goalkeeper Hampton added that it was “stressful watching” and “stressful playing”.

The 24-year-old, who was left with a bloodied nose in extra-time, said: “Every time I saved one, I was just thinking ‘please put it in, so we have a bit of a cushion!’

“To be honest, I think I was better in the game when I had one nostril than when I was completely fine!”

She said it was the support of the England fans that helped the team push on. She said: “They were definitely behind me and I appreciate all the support.”

Pressure was on the Lionesses after they won the tournament in 2022.

Their journey in the group stages started with a 2-1 defeat to France, but hopes were lifted after England sailed past the Netherlands and Wales to reach the knockout stages, finishing second in Group D.

Sweden on the other hand went into Thursday’s game unbeaten in the tournament so far, having already defeated Germany, Poland and Denmark in the group stages.

World

Lionesses went from sloppy to celebratory in nerve-shredding euros quarter-final

Published

51 mins ago

July 18, 2025

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Lionesses went from sloppy to celebratory in nerve-shredding euros quarter-final

By the time Hannah Hampton appeared in the news conference, the England goalkeeper was relieved, ecstatic and wanting to share this night far and wide.

So when her phone started ringing with a FaceTime call, she broke off speaking to the media about reaching the Euros semi-finals to answer it.

And then share the call with the room in Zurich.

After such a nerve-shredding night, this was the moment to relax and just savour it all.

Savour how close they came to throwing it all away against Sweden before staging a stirring comeback inspired by Lucy Bronze.

The 33-year-old scored the goal that began the fightback with 11 minutes to go and converted England’s final penalty in the shootout.

“Lucy Bronze is one of a kind,” England manager Sarina Wiegman said. “It’s that resilience, that fight. I think the only way to get her off the pitch is in a wheelchair.”

The Lionesses looked down and out, 2-0 down after 25 minutes.

Completely outplayed. A defence run ragged. Just too sloppy.

“We said at half-time we don’t want to go home,” Hampton said. “So it’s up to us to turn the game around.”

That only came after Wiegman deployed the substitutes the manager calls “finishers”.

They fulfilled their mission.

“Sweden in that moment had to adapt to some different things in the game,” Wiegman said, “before they could, it was 2-2.”

Within seconds of coming on, match-winner Chloe Kelly showed the missing spirit. The spirit that saw her score the Euro 2022 winner.

A creator of two goals in 103 seconds.

A cross headed in with 11 minutes to go by Bronze – the only player still playing from the Euro 2013 group-stage elimination.

It was a lifeline seized on so quickly.

Another cross from Kelly was this time brought down by Beth Mead before Michelle Agyemang.

The timeliest of goals from the teen – a first tournament goal on her third appearance as a sub.

But there would be the anxiousness of extra time to follow, unable to find a breakthrough.

So to the shootout that lasted 14 penalties between them.

Hampton said: “It was stressful watching and playing, I thought every single time when I saved one, ‘Please score and give us a cushion’. I feel so happy and relieved.”

Around Alessia Russo and Kelly scoring there were four England misses before Bronze converted England’s seventh and Sweden missed a fifth.

A frenzied 3-2 shootout win was complete.

“I can’t remember anything like this,” said Wiegman, who has only reached finals in her four tournaments with the Netherlands and England.

“I thought three times we were out,” she said.

But instead it’s off to Geneva for the European champions for a semi-final with Italy.

They’ll be hoping it’s less of a struggle, less dramatic – while just glad to have made it there.