Apple CEO Tim Cook stands next to the new Apple Vision Pro headset is displayed during the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference on June 05, 2023 in Cupertino, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
The last time technology stocks had a better first half, Apple was touting its Lisa desktop computer, IBM was the most-valuable tech company in the U.S. and Mark Zuckerberg hadn’t been born.
On Friday, the Nasdaq wrapped up the first six months of the year with a 1.5% rally, bringing its gains so far for 2023 to 32%. That’s the sharpest first-half jump in the tech-heavy index since 1983, when the Nasdaq rose 37%.
It’s a startling achievement, given what’s happened in the tech industry over the past four decades. Microsoft went public in 1986, sparking a PC software boom. Then came the internet browsers of the 1990s, leading up to the dot-com bubble years and the soaring prices of e-commerce, search and computer-networking stocks. The past decade saw the emergence of the mega-cap, trillion-dollar companies, which are now the most valuable enterprises in the U.S.
While those prior eras featured sustained rallies, none of them had a start to the year rivaling 2023.
Even more stunning, it’s happening this year while the U.S. economy is still at risk of slipping into recession and reckoning with a banking crisis, highlighted by the collapse in March of Silicon Valley Bank, the financial nucleus for much of the venture and startup world. The Federal Reserve also steadily increased its benchmark interest rate to the highest since 2007.
But momentum is always a driver when it comes to tech, and investors are notoriously fearful of missing out, even if they simultaneously worry about frothy valuations.
Coming off a miserable 2022, in which the Nasdaq lost one-third of its value, the big story was cost-cutting and efficiency. Mass layoffs at Alphabet, Meta and Amazon as well as at numerous smaller companies paved the way for a rebound in earnings and a more realistic outlook for growth.
Meta and Tesla, which both got hammered last year, have more than doubled in value so far in 2023. Alphabet is up 36% after dropping 39% in 2022.
None of those companies were around the last time the Nasdaq had a better start to the year. Meta CEO Zuckerberg, who created the company formerly known as Facebook in 2004, was born in 1984. Tesla was founded in 2003, five years after Google, the predecessor to Alphabet.
As 2023 got going, attention turned to artificial intelligence and a flood of activity around generative AI chatbots, which respond to text-based queries with intelligent and conversational responses. Microsoft-backed OpenAI has become a household name (and was No. 1 on CNBC’s Disruptor 50 list) with its ChatGPT program, and dollars are pouring into Nvidia, whose chips are used to power AI workloads at many of the companies taking advantage of the latest advancements.
Nvidia shares soared 190% in the first half, lifting the 30-year-old company’s market cap past $1 trillion.
“I think you’re going to continue to see tech dominate because we’re still all abuzz about AI,” said Bryn Talkington, managing partner at Requisite Capital Management, in an interview with CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Thursday.
Talkington, whose firm holds Nvidia shares, said the chipmaker has a unique story, and that its growth is not shared across the industry. Rather, large companies working on AI have to spend heavily on Nvidia’s technology.
“Nvidia not only owns the shovels and axes of this AI goldrush,” Talkington said. “They actually are the only hardware store in town.”
Remember the $10,000 Lisa?
Apple hasn’t seen gains quite so dramatic, but the stock is still up 50% this year, trading at a record and pushing the iPhone maker to a $3 trillion market cap.
Apple still counts on the iPhone for the bulk of its revenue, but its latest jump into virtual reality with the announcement this month of the Vision Pro headset has helped reinvigorate investor enthusiasm. It was Apple’s first major product release since 2014, and will be available starting at $3,499 beginning early next year.
That sounds like a lot, except when compared to the price tag for the initial Lisa computer, which Apple rolled out 40 years ago. That PC, named after co-founder Steve Jobs’ daughter, started at $10,000, keeping it far out of the hands of mainstream consumers.
Apple’s revenue in 1983 was roughly $1 billion, or about the amount of money the company brought in on an average day in the first quarter of 2023 (Apple’s fiscal second quarter).
Tech was the clear story for the equity markets in the first half, as the broader S&P 500 notched a 16% gain and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just 2.9%.
Investors looking for red flags heading into the second half don’t have to look far.
Global economic concerns persist, highlighted by uncertainty surrounding the war in Russia and Ukraine and ongoing trade tensions with China. Short-term interest rates are now above 5%, meaning investors can get risk-free returns in the mid-single digits from certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts.
Another sign of skepticism is the absence of a tech IPO market, as emerging companies continue to sit on the sidelines despite brewing enthusiasm across the industry. There hasn’t been a notable venture capital-backed tech IPO in the U.S. since late 2021, and investors and bankers tell CNBC that the second half of the year is poised to remain quiet, as companies wait for better predictability in their numbers.
Jim Tierney, chief investment officer of U.S. concentrated growth at AllianceBernstein, told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” on Friday that there are plenty of challenges for investors to consider. Like Talkington, he’s unsure how much of a boost the broader corporate world is seeing from AI at the moment.
“Getting to AI specifically, I think we have to see benefit for all companies,” Tierney said. “That will come, I’m just not sure that’s going to happen in the second half of this year.”
Meanwhile, economic data is mixed. A survey earlier this month from CNBC and Morning Consult found that 92% of Americans are cutting back on spending as inflationary pressures persist.
“The fundamentals get tougher,” Tierney said. “You look at consumer spending today, the consumer is pulling back. All of that suggests that the fundamentals are more stretched here than not.”
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg appears at the Meta Connect event in Menlo Park, California, Sept. 25, 2024.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg slammed rival tech giant Apple for lackluster innovation efforts and “random rules” in a lengthy podcast interview on Friday.
“On the one hand, [the iPhone has] been great, because now pretty much everyone in the world has a phone, and that’s kind of what enables pretty amazing things,” Zuckerberg said in an episode of the “Joe Rogan Experience.” “But on the other hand … they have used that platform to put in place a lot of rules that I think feel arbitrary and [I] feel like they haven’t really invented anything great in a while. It’s like Steve Jobs invented the iPhone, and now they’re just kind of sitting on it 20 years later.”
Zuckerberg added that he thought iPhone sales were struggling because consumers are taking longer to upgrade their phones because new models aren’t big improvements from prior iterations.
“So how are they making more money as a company? Well, they do it by basically, like, squeezing people, and, like you’re saying, having this 30% tax on developers by getting you to buy more peripherals and things that plug into it,” Zuckerberg said. “You know, they build stuff like Air Pods, which are cool, but they’ve just thoroughly hamstrung the ability for anyone else to build something that can connect to the iPhone in the same way.”
Apple defends itself from pushback from other companies by saying that it doesn’t want to violate consumers’ privacy and security, according to Zuckerberg. But he said that the problem would be solved if Apple fixed its protocol, like building better security and using encryption.
“It’s insecure because you didn’t build any security into it. And then now you’re using that as a justification for why only your product can connect in an easy way,” Zuckerberg said.
Zuckerberg said that if Apple stopped applying its “random rules,” Meta’s profit would double.
He also took shots at Apple’s Vision Pro headset, which had disappointing U.S. sales. Meta sells its own virtual headsets called the Meta Quest.
“I think the Vision Pro is, I think, one of the bigger swings at doing a new thing that they tried in a while,” Zuckerberg said. “And I don’t want to give them too hard of a time on it, because we do a lot of things where the first version isn’t that good, and you want to kind of judge the third version of it. But I mean, the V1, it definitely did not hit it out of the park.”
“I heard it’s really good for watching movies,” he added.
Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment from CNBC.
Mark Zuckerberg’s announcement this week that Meta would pivot its moderation policies to allow more “free expression” was widely viewed as the company’s latest effort to appease President-elect Donald Trump.
More than any of its Silicon Valley peers, Meta has taken numerous public steps to make amends with Trump since his election victory in November.
That follows a highly contentious four years between the two during Trump’s first term in office, which ended with Facebook — similar to other social media companies — banning Trump from its platform.
As recently as March, Trump was using his preferred nickname of “Zuckerschmuck” when talking about Meta’s CEO and declaring that Facebook was an “enemy of the people.”
With Meta now positioning itself to be a key player in artificial intelligence, Zuckerberg recognizes the need for White House support as his company builds data centers and pursues policies that will allow it to fulfill its lofty ambitions, according to people familiar with the company’s plans who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak on the matter.
“Even though Facebook is as powerful as it is, it still had to bend the knee to Trump,” said Brian Boland, a former Facebook vice president, who left the company in 2020.
Meta declined to comment for this article.
In Tuesday’s announcement, Zuckerberg said Meta will end third-party fact-checking, remove restrictions on topics such as immigration and gender identity and bring political content back to users’ feeds. Zuckerberg pitched the sweeping policy changes as key to stabilizing Meta’s content-moderation apparatus, which he said had “reached a point where it’s just too many mistakes and too much censorship.”
The policy change was the latest strategic shift Meta has taken to buddy up with Trump and Republicans since Election Day.
A day earlier, Meta announced that UFC CEO Dana White, a longtime Trump friend, is joining the company’s board.
And last week, Meta announced that it was replacing Nick Clegg, its president of global affairs, with Joel Kaplan, who had been the company’s policy vice president. Clegg previously had a career in British politics with the Liberal Democrats party, including as a deputy prime minister, while Kaplan was a White House deputy chief of staff under former President George W. Bush.
Kaplan, who joined Meta in 2011 when it was still known as Facebook, has longstanding ties to the Republican Party and once worked as a law clerk for the late conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. In December, Kaplan posted photos on Facebook of himself with Vice President-elect JD Vance and Trump during their visit to the New York Stock Exchange.
Joel Kaplan, Facebook’s vice president of global policy, on April 17, 2018.
Niall Carson | PA Images | Getty Images
Many Meta employees criticized the policy change internally, with some saying the company is absolving itself of its responsibility to create a safe platform. Current and former employees also expressed concern that marginalized communities could face more online abuse due to the new policy, which is set to take effect over the coming weeks.
Despite the backlash from employees, people familiar with the company’s thinking said Meta is more willing to make these kinds of moves after laying off 21,000 employees, or nearly a quarter of its workforce, in 2022 and 2023.
Those cuts affected much of Meta’s civic integrity and trust and safety teams. The civic integrity group was the closest thing the company had to a white-collar union, with members willing to push back against certain policy decisions, former employees said. Since the job cuts, Zuckerberg faces less friction when making broad policy changes, the people said.
Zuckerberg’s overtures to Trump began in the months leading up to the election.
Following the first assassination attempt on Trump in July, Zuckerberg called the photo of Trump raising his fist with blood running down his face “one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life.”
A month later, Zuckerberg penned a letter to the House Judiciary Committee alleging that the Biden administration had pressured Meta’s teams to censor certain Covid-19 content.
“I believe the government pressure was wrong, and I regret that we were not more outspoken about it,” he wrote.
After Trump’s presidential victory, Zuckerberg joined several other technology executives who visited the president-elect’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Meta also donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund.
On Friday, Meta revealed to its workforce in a memo obtained by CNBC that it intends to shutter several internal programs related to diversity and inclusion in its hiring process, representing another Trump-friendly move.
The previous day, some details of the company’s new relaxed content-moderation guidelines were published by the news site The Intercept, showing the kind of offensive rhetoric that Meta’s new policy would now allow, including statements such as “Migrants are no better than vomit” and “I bet Jorge’s the one who stole my backpack after track practice today. Immigrants are all thieves.”
Recalibrating for Trump
Zuckerberg, who has been dragged to Washington eight times to testify before congressional committees during the last two administrations, wants to be perceived as someone who can work with Trump and the Republican Party, people familiar with the matter said.
Though Meta’s content-policy updates caught many of its employees and fact-checking partners by surprise, a small group of executives were formulating the plans in the aftermath of the U.S. election results. By New Year’s Day, leadership began planning the public announcements of its policy change, the people said.
Meta typically undergoes major “recalibrations” after prominent U.S. elections, said Katie Harbath, a former Facebook policy director and CEO of tech consulting firm Anchor Change. When the country undergoes a change in power, Meta adjusts its policies to best suit its business and reputational needs based on the political landscape, Harbath said.
“In 2028, they’ll recalibrate again,” she said.
After the 2016 election and Trump’s first victory, for example, Zuckerberg toured the U.S. to meet people in states he hadn’t previously visited. He published a 6,000-word manifesto emphasizing the need for Facebook to build more community.
The social media company faced harsh criticism about fake news and Russian election interference on its platforms after the 2016 election.
Following the 2020 election, during the heart of the pandemic, Meta took a harder stand on Covid-19 content, with a policy executive saying in 2021 that the “amount of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation that violates our policies is too much by our standards.” Those efforts may have appeased the Biden administration, but it drew the ire of Republicans.
Meta is once again reacting to the moment, Harbath said.
“There wasn’t a business risk here in Silicon Valley to be more right-leaning,” Harbath said.
While Trump has offered few specific policy proposals for his second administration, Meta has plenty at stake.
The White House could create more relaxed AI regulations compared with those in the European Union, where Meta says harsh restrictions have resulted in the company not releasing some of its more advanced AI technologies. Meta, like other tech giants, also needs more massive data centers and cutting-edge computer chips to help train and run their advanced AI models.
“There’s a business benefit to having Republicans win, because they are traditionally less regulatory,” Harbath said.
Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg reacts as he testifies during the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on online child sexual exploitation at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., January 31, 2024.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
Meta isn’t alone in trying to cozy up to Trump. But the extreme measures the company is taking reflects a particular level of animus expressed by Trump over the years.
Trump has accused Meta of censorship and has expressed resentment over the company’s two-year suspension of his Facebook and Instagram accounts following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
In July 2024, Trump posted on Truth Social that he intended to “pursue Election Fraudsters at levels never seen before, and they will be sent to prison for long periods of time,” adding “ZUCKERBUCKS, be careful!” Trump reiterated that statement in his book, “Save America,” writing that Zuckerberg plotted against him during the 2020 election and that the Meta CEO would “spend the rest of his life in prison” if it happened again.
Meta spends $14 million annually on providing personal security for Zuckerberg and his family, according to the company’s 2024 proxy statement. As part of that security, the company analyzes any threats or perceived threats against its CEO, according to a person familiar with the matter. Those threats are cataloged, analyzed and dissected by Meta’s multitude of security teams.
After Trump’s comments, Meta’s security teams analyzed how Trump could weaponize the Justice Department and the country’s intelligence agencies against Zuckerberg and what it would cost the company to defend its CEO against a sitting president, said the person, who asked not to be named because of confidentiality.
Meta’s efforts to appease the incoming president bring their own risks.
After Zuckerberg announced the new speech policy Tuesday, Boland, the former executive, was among a number of users who took to Meta’s Threads service to tell their followers that they were quitting Facebook.
“Last post before deleting,” Boland wrote in his post.
Before the post could be seen by any of his Threads followers, Meta’s content moderation system had taken it down, citing cybersecurity reasons.
Boland told CNBC in an interview that he couldn’t help but chuckle at the situation.
“It’s deeply ironic,” Boland said.
— CNBC’s Salvador Rodriguez contributed to this report.
Apple is losing market share in China due to declining iPhone shipments, supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote in a report on Friday. The stock slid 2.4%.
“Apple has adopted a cautious stance when discussing 2025 iPhone production plans with key suppliers,” Kuo, an analyst at TF Securities, wrote in the post. He added that despite the expected launch of the new iPhone SE 4, shipments are expected to decline 6% year over year for the first half of 2025.
Kuo expects Apple’s market share to continue to slide, as two of the coming iPhones are so thin that they likely will only support eSIM, which the Chinese market currently does not promote.
“These two models could face shipping momentum challenges unless their design is modified,” he wrote.
Kuo wrote that in December, overall smartphone shipments in China were flat from a year earlier, but iPhone shipments dropped 10% to 12%.
There is also “no evidence” that Apple Intelligence, the company’s on-device artificial intelligence offering, is driving hardware upgrades or services revenue, according to Kuo. He wrote that the feature “has not boosted iPhone replacement demand,” according to a supply chain survey he conducted, and added that in his view, the feature’s appeal “has significantly declined compared to cloud-based AI services, which have advanced rapidly in subsequent months.”
Apple’s estimated iPhone shipments total about 220 million units for 2024 and between about 220 million and 225 million for this year, Kuo wrote. That is “below the market consensus of 240 million or more,” he wrote.
Apple did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.