Energy bills to fall from today but will still cost almost double pre-crisis levels
Households will pay less for their gas and electricity from today but bills will still be almost double what they were before the energy crisis.
The average household energy bill will fall by £426 a year from 1 July after Ofgem dropped its price cap following tumbling wholesale prices.
People had been advised to submit meter readings before midnight on 30 June to ensure they are paying the lower prices as soon as they come into effect.
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Those who could not are advised to do so as close to the date as possible, taking a time-stamped photo as proof.
The industry regulator is cutting its price cap from £3,280 to £2,074.
The change is a relief for consumers who have seen typical bills rocket upwards from £1,271 a year in October 2021 due to soaring power prices driven by the post-pandemic recovery and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Households have been partly shielded from the most recent rise in prices by the government’s energy price guarantee (EPG), which limited annual energy costs to £2,500 for the average household.
Ofgem’s latest cut means its cap will again govern household bills, with the guarantee no longer applying.
The change in the cap will result in a typical reduction of £426 from £2,500 to £2,074 – a fall of about 17%.
The energy price cap sets a limit on the maximum amount suppliers can charge for each unit of gas and electricity.
The headline price cap figure is an average across households rather than an absolute cap on bills, so those that use more will pay more.
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Which? Energy editor Emily Seymour said: “While the new price cap will see typical bills drop by around £500, energy bills will still be almost double the amount they were before the energy crisis began – which will be unaffordable for some households.
“If you are concerned about struggling to pay higher bills, there is help available. Speak to your energy provider about a payment plan you can afford and check to see if you qualify for any government schemes.”
Ms Seymour added: “Fixed deals are starting to return to the market for existing customers of some suppliers. We wouldn’t recommend fixing anything higher than the unit rates in your current deal or for longer than a year.
“If you are offered a deal, then it’s really important to check the tariff’s exit fees in case you want to leave that deal early if the price cap comes down.”
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Energy price cap reduction explained
A spokeswoman for Energy UK, which represents suppliers, said: “The fall in the price cap from July will be welcome news for customers who have had to face record energy bills over the last year amidst a steep rise in the cost of living and for whom the government’s bill support has been crucial in preventing even bigger difficulties.
“However, bills remain much higher than they were 18 months ago and many customers will continue to struggle, especially following the removal of some of that support.
“If – as the current projections indicate – annual bills of £2,000 plus become the new normal, it underlines the importance and urgency of the energy industry, Ofgem, government and consumer groups working together to put in place targeted support for those most in need next winter.”
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Household energy bills are expected to fall again, to below £2,000 a year from October, according to the latest forecasts.
Energy industry consultancy Cornwall Insight said it thinks the price cap on energy bills will fall to £1,978.33 from October from July’s £2,074, but rise again from January to £2,004.40, based on Ofgem’s current measures.
However, the regulator is adjusting its definition of the average household’s consumption from October, down from the current 2,900 kWh a year for electricity to 2,700 kWh, and from 12,000 kWh for gas to 11,500 kWh, to reflect consumers using less energy to cut costs in the face of high prices.
Based on Ofgem’s adjusted definitions of average usage, Cornwall Insight has forecast that the regulator will announce price caps of £1,871 a year from October and £1,900 from January.
Rachel Reeves has been urged by a think tank to cut national insurance and increase income tax to create a “level playing field” and protect workers’ pay.
The Resolution Foundation said the chancellor should send a “decisive signal” that she will make “tough decisions” on tax.
Ms Reeves is expected to outline significant tax rises in the upcoming budget in November.
The Resolution Foundation has suggested these changes should include a 2p cut to national insurance as well as a 2p rise in income tax, which Adam Corlett, its principal economist, said “should form part of wider efforts to level the playing field on tax”.
The think tank, which used to be headed by Torsten Bell, a Labour MP who is now a key aide to Ms Reeves and a pensions minister, said the move would help to address “unfairness” in the tax system.
As more people pay income tax than national insurance, including pensioners and landlords, the think tank estimates the switch would go some way in raising the £20bn in tax it thinks would be needed by 2029/2030 to offset increased borrowing costs, flat growth and new spending commitments. Other estimates go as high as £51bn.
Torsten Bell appearing on Sky News
‘Significant tax rises needed’
Another proposal by the think tank would see a gradual lowering of the threshold at which businesses pay VAT from £90,000 to £30,000, as this would help “promote fair competition” and raise £2bn by the end of the decade.
The Resolution Foundation also recommends increasing the tax on dividends, addressing a “worrying” growth in unpaid corporation tax from small businesses, applying a carbon charge to long-haul flights and shipping, and expanding taxation of sugar and salt.
“Policy U-turns, higher borrowing costs and lower productivity growth mean that the chancellor will need to act to avoid borrowing costs rising even further this autumn,” Mr Corlett said.
“Significant tax rises will be needed for the chancellor to send a clear signal that the UK’s public finances are under control.”
He added that while any tax rises are “likely to be painful”, Ms Reeves should do “all she can to avoid loading further pain onto workers’ pay packets”.
The government has repeatedly insisted it will keep its manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.
A Treasury spokesperson said in response to the think tank report it does “not comment on speculation around future changes to tax policy”.
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Chancellor urged to freeze alcohol duty
Meanwhile, Ms Reeves has been urged to freeze alcohol duty in the upcoming budget and not increase the rate of excise tax on alcohol until the end of the current parliament.
The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), UK Spirits Alliance, Welsh Whisky Association, English Whisky Guild and Drinks Ireland said in an open letter that the current regime was “unfair” and has put a “strain” on members who are “struggling”.
The bodies are also urging Ms Reeves “to ensure there will be no further widening of the tax differential between spirits and other alcohol categories”.
A Treasury spokesperson said there will be no export duty, lower licensing fees, reduced tariffs, and a cap on corporation tax to make it easier for British distilleries to thrive.
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This comes as the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned that food inflation will rise and remain above 5% into next year if the retail industry is hit by further tax rises in the November budget.
The BRC voiced concerns that around 4,000 large shops could experience a rise in their business rates if they are included in the government’s new surtax for properties with a rateable value – an estimation of how much it would cost to rent a property for a year – over £500,000, and this could lead to price rises for consumers.
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Latest ONS figures put food inflation at 4.9%, the highest level since 2022/2023.
The Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged last week amid fears that rising food prices were putting mounting pressure on headline inflation.
“The biggest risk to food prices would be to include large shops – including supermarkets – in the new surtax on large properties,” BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said.
She added: “Removing all shops from the surtax can be done without any cost to the taxpayer, and would demonstrate the chancellor’s commitment to bring down inflation.”
Donald Trump has revealed that media mogul Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan could be part of a deal in which TikTok in the United States will come under American control.
The US president also namedropped Michael Dell, the founder and CEO of Dell Technologies, as a possible participant in the deal during an interview with Fox News, which is owned by the Murdochs.
“I think they’re going to be in the group. A couple of others. Really great people, very prominent people,” Mr Trump said. “And they’re also American patriots, you know, they love this country. I think they’re going to do a really good job.”
Mr Trump said that Larry Ellison, founder and CEO of software firm Oracle, was part of the same group. His involvement in the potential TikTok deal had previously been revealed.
President Donald Trump speaking to reporters outside the White House. Pic: AP/Mark Schiefelbein
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Saturday that Oracle would be responsible for the app’s data and security, with Americans set to control six of the seven seats for a planned TikTok board.
This comes after Mr Trump said he and China’s Xi Jinping held a “very productive call” on Friday, discussing the final approval for the TikTok deal, much of which is still unknown.
Once confirmed, the deal should stop TikTok from being banned in the US after lawmakers decided it posed a security risk to citizens’ data.
Officials warned that the algorithm TikTok uses is vulnerable to manipulation by Chinese authorities, who can use it to push specific content on the social media platform in a way that is difficult to detect.
Congress had ordered the app shut down for American users by January 2025 if its Chinese owner ByteDance didn’t sell its assets in the country – but the ban has been delayed four times by President Trump.
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Mr Trump said on Sunday that he might be “a little prejudiced” about TikTok, after telling reporters on Friday: “I wasn’t a fan of TikTok and then I got to use it and then I became a fan and it helped me win an election in a landslide.”
After the call with Mr Xi, Mr Trump said in a Truth Social post: “We made progress on many very important issues, including Trade, Fentanyl, the need to bring the War between Russia and Ukraine to an end, and the approval of the TikTok Deal.”
Mr Trump later told reporters at the White House that Xi had approved the deal, but said it still needed to be signed.
Representatives for the Murdochs, Mr Dell and Mr Ellison have not yet commented on a potential TikTok deal.
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