Retirees are underestimating how long they will live

Published

2 years ago

July 3, 2023

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A significant share of older Americans underestimate how long their retirement is going to last: i.e., how long they are going to live.

Most people know that the average American lives to an age between 75 and 80. Less well known, apparently, is that life expectancy rises with age. At age 60, an American man can expect to reach 82; a woman, 85.

That knowledge is called longevity literacy, and many of us don’t have it. In a 2022 survey by the insurer TIAA, one-quarter of Americans underestimated the life expectancy of a 60-year-old. Another 28 percent said they didn’t know it.

Even among baby boomers, the youngest of whom are nearing 60, more than two-fifths of survey respondents either guessed low on longevity or punted on the question.

“We were kind of shocked to get the data,” said Surya Kolluri, the head of TIAA Institute, which produced the report.

Kolluri said he was particularly dismayed over the large share of respondents who could not answer the longevity question, which was multiple choice.

“We gave them the answer and they still said, ‘Eh, I don’t know,’” he said.

Confusion over human lifespan complicates the business of planning for retirement, a phase of life for which many Americans are already underprepared.

More than two-fifths of baby boomers have no retirement savings, even as the postwar generation enters retirement years, census data show.

The median boomer household held $134,000 in retirement savings in 2019, according to a NerdWallet analysis.

By most accounts, even that figure is not nearly enough. Human longevity doesn’t stop rising at 60. An American who retires at 65 can expect to live to 85, according to Social Security projections.

“We don’t know why people are so off in their expectations,” said Gal Wettstein, a senior research economist at Boston College. “I think there is some evidence that people don’t account for the fact that they’ve already lived to a certain age when they try to guess how long they might live.”

The biggest financial risk facing retirees is “outliving your savings,” Wettstein said, citing research from the school’s Center for Retirement Research.

That fact, too, is lost on many Americans. People approaching retirement wrongly assume that stock market volatility is their biggest financial peril, Wettstein said. In fact, the far greater risk is “living so long that your money runs out.”

Increasing lifespans ranks as one of the great human advances of the past century. An American born in 1900 could expect to reach 47. By 1950, life expectancy had risen to 68. U.S. lifespan peaked at 79 in 2019, then dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The longevity bonus has become more pronounced over time, as we outlive various perils that killed our forebears. A Stanford researcher examined people who live past 65 in developed countries and found that human lifespans increase by three years with every generation.

But such nuances are lost on many people outside the scholarly community.

Researchers at the Employee Benefit Research Institute have repeatedly surveyed Americans of all ages about longevity and found consistent befuddlement.

“One of the consistent things is that there were 20 percent of people who don’t know, who couldn’t give an answer,” said Craig Copeland, director of wealth benefits research at the institute. “So, you’re starting out with one-fifth of people with no idea of how long they were going to live.”

Retirees fared somewhat better on survey questions about longevity. In 2022, Copeland said, more than half of retired persons demonstrated knowledge that an American at 65 can expect to live 20 more years. Even in this group, however, one-fifth of respondents didn’t answer the question.

Boston College researchers have found that many working-age Americans are “pessimistic about how long they are going to live,” and underestimate their own expected longevity, Wettstein said.

Even people in their 50s and 60s “tend to think they’re not going to live very long, or not as long as the life expectancy of a person their age,” he said. “Where that kind of flips is in people’s 70s, which is late for making decisions about retirement.”

Women show much greater longevity literacy than men. In the TIAA survey, 43 percent of women answered the lifespan question correctly, compared to 32 percent of men.

“That concerns me,” Kolluri said of the male respondents, “because what it implies to me is that they’re incurring longevity risk, that they will outlive their money.”

People with greater literacy about human lifespans are more likely to save for retirement, Kolluri said. They are also more likely to have calculated how much money they will need. And they are more likely to be satisfied in retirement.

Lack of longevity literacy leaves many Americans unprepared to finance retirement. There are other factors.

Millions of Americans count on Social Security to see them through retirement. But monthly Social Security checks to retired workers average around $1,800, much less than the typical family spends in retirement.

Prior generations of retirees tapped employer-funded pensions. That income source has gradually given way to employer-sponsored retirement plans.

Yet, according to an AARP analysis, nearly half of Americans have no access to retirement plans at work, especially at smaller firms with fewer employees.

Workers who do save for retirement often don’t save enough. In the latest Retirement Confidence Survey from the Employee Benefit Research Institute, only 64 percent of workers voiced confidence that they would have enough money to live comfortably through their retirement years.

Another measure, Boston College’s National Retirement Risk Index, finds that roughly half of working-age American households are at risk of being financially unprepared for retirement.

Just as worrisome, perhaps, only about one-third of households are aware that they are unprepared.

Many families overestimate how much money they have on hand for retirement and underestimate how much more they will need. Homeowners often focus too much on the rising value of their home, and too little on how much they owe on the mortgage. Workers with retirement accounts may underestimate how far those funds will go. A $100,000 retirement nest egg translates to only about $600 in monthly retirement income. Too often, researchers say, a household has two wage earners but only one partner actively saving for retirement.

Outliving one’s retirement savings is only the largest among several risks Americans face when entering retirement. Another is covering the costs of long-term care.

More than half of Americans entering retirement today will eventually require “long-term services and supports,” at an average cost of $120,900, according to federal research.

“A semi-private room in a nursing home is about $100,000 a year, and that is a lot of money,” Wettstein said. “No doubt, for a lot of people, that would run through their savings very quickly.” UPS reaches deal that lowers chances of nationwide Teamsters strike Teamsters say strike still on the table at UPS

A recent analysis by the National Council on Aging found that 80 percent of people over 60 lack the financial resources to cover long-term care.

“You have this idea that Medicare will cover some of those costs, whereas in fact Medicare doesn’t generally cover most of those costs,” said Genevieve Waterman, director of economic and financial security at the National Council on Aging.

Worried about financing retirement? The National Council on Aging offers an Age Well Planner, and many investment sites feature retirement income calculators.

US

Trump pauses tariffs on most goods from Mexico and some from Canada

Published

33 mins ago

March 7, 2025

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Trump pauses tariffs on most goods from Mexico and some from Canada

Donald Trump has announced that most goods imported from Mexico and some from Canada are to be exempt from his trade tariff regime for at least four weeks, just days after the charges were imposed.

“We are working hard, together, on the border, both in terms of stopping illegal aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping fentanyl,” the president posted on his Truth Social platform after first relaxing his sanctions against Mexico.

He often gives both issues as reasons for the tariffs.

The latest climbdown came after he surprised financial markets 24 hours earlier by waiving tariffs against carmakers following pleas from motor industry bosses.

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The White House said that 62% of Canadian imports would still be subject to 25% tariffs because they were not compliant with a trade deal – USMCA (US Mexico and Canada) – struck in 2020.

News that Canadian goods which met the USMCA criteria were being spared tariffs until 2 April followed hours after the same concession was agreed between Mr Trump and his Mexican counterpart.

A tariff of 10% was to remain on potash – a fertiliser used by farmers – and Mr Trump added that the auto tariffs would definitely return next month.

The White House revealed some details. Parts due to flow into the US from Mexico and Canada as part of the manufacturing supply chain would not qualify for tariffs so long as they complied with the USMCA deal.

‘Rules of origin’ guidelines under the agreement allow goods to move between the three countries tariff-free if they qualify with a designation that they were made in North America.

US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick told Sky’s US partner network CNBC that, taken together, more than half of usual cross border trade volumes would be exempt under the expanded concessions.

He too signalled there were signs of progress in the dispute with America’s closest trading partners, saying each had worked hard to make progress in tackling imports of Fentanyl – blamed for high crime and deaths in US communities.

But Mr Lutnick explained that, as things stand, the reprieve would only last until 2 April when the Trump administration plans to impose reciprocal tariffs – on top of the 25% charges that came into force on Tuesday.

At the same time, Mr Trump is under intense pressure to relax his tariff regime permanently amid a backlash from US firms and financial market investors who fear it is self defeating.

A closely-watched forecast has even suggested that the threats of a trade war were enough to push the US economy into recession before Mr Trump took office.

The dollar has sunk in value and US government borrowing costs have risen on the back of the turmoil.

US stock markets were also feeling the pressure again with the tech-heavy Nasdaq on course to fall by more than 3% on the day.

It is widely expected that the European Union will be next to face tariffs – possibly from 2 April – after Mr Trump threatened action “very soon” just last week.

Commenting on the threat to the eurozone from such a move, the president of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said on Thursday: “Just the threat of those tariff increases and potential retaliations are putting a brake on – on investment, on consumption decisions, on employment, hiring, all the rest of it.”

While Mr Trump has not issued a specific threat against the UK, her counterpart at the Bank of England Andrew Bailey told a committee of MPs on Wednesday that the US should work “multi-laterally” rather than bilaterally to resolve its disputes.

US

US ‘destroying’ international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia ‘halfway’, Ukraine’s UK ambassador warns

Published

33 mins ago

March 7, 2025

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US 'destroying' international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia 'halfway', Ukraine's UK ambassador warns

The United States is “finally destroying” the international rules-based order by trying to meet Russia “halfway”, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has warned.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Washington’s recent actions in relation to Moscow could lead to the collapse of NATO – with Europe becoming Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s next target.

“The failure to qualify actions of Russia as an aggression is a huge challenge for the entire world and Europe, in particular,” he told a conference at the Chatham House think tank.

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“We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order.”

Mr Zaluzhnyi, who took over as Kyiv’s ambassador to London in 2024 following three years as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, also warned that the White House had “questioned the unity of the whole Western world” – suggesting NATO could cease to exist as a result.

It comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scrambles to repair relations with US President Donald Trump following a dramatic row between the two men in the Oval Office last week.

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Mr Trump signalled on Tuesday that tensions could be easing, telling Congress he had received a letter from Mr Zelenskyy saying he was ready to sign a peace deal “at any time”.

But on the same day, the US president ordered a sudden freeze on shipments of US military aid to Ukraine, and Washington has since paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv and halted cyber operations against Russia.

Mr Zaluzhnyi said the pause in cyber operations and an earlier decision by the US to oppose a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine were “a huge challenge for the entire world”.

He added that talks between the US and Russia – “headed by a war criminal” – showed the White House “makes steps towards the Kremlin, trying to meet them halfway”, warning Moscow’s next target “could be Europe”.

US

Lesotho minister calls Trump ‘insulting’ for saying nobody has heard of country

Published

33 mins ago

March 7, 2025

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Lesotho minister calls Trump 'insulting' for saying nobody has heard of country

Lesotho’s foreign minister has said it is “insulting” for Donald Trump to say nobody has heard of the country.

In his address to the US Congress on Tuesday, the US president mentioned Lesotho while listing some of the foreign spending he had cut as “appalling waste”.

“Eight million dollars to promote LGBTQI+ in the African nation of Lesotho, which nobody has ever heard of,” Mr Trump said, drawing laughs in the Congress.

The president also appeared to struggle to pronounce the country’s name.

Lesotho’s foreign minister, Lejone Mpotjoane, said: “I’m really shocked that my country can be referred to like that by the head of state.

“Lesotho is such a significant and unique country in the whole world. I would be happy to invite the president, as well as the rest of the world, to come to Lesotho,” Mr Mpotjoane told the Reuters news agency.

He later told The Associated Press: “It is surprising and disappointing that he claimed no one knows Lesotho, especially given that the US has an embassy here.

“He should speak for himself and not generalise.”

The Trump administration has cut billions of dollars in foreign aid worldwide as part of the president’s America First policy.

Lesotho, which has a population of around 2.3 million people, has received American assistance for nearly 20 years through USAID, which gave it more than $44m (£34.1m) last year.

Mr Mpotjoane said while civil society organisations funded by the US embassy in Lesotho did work to support the LGBT+ community, the US also provided important funding to the country’s health and agriculture sectors.

The cuts have forced Lesotho’s HIV programme to lay off at least 1,500 health workers – about 7% of the country’s health staff – in what the government has described as a severe blow.

US aid has been credited with helping Lesotho provide life-saving treatment to more than 200,000 people living with HIV.

Mr Mpotjoane said the government was looking at how to become more self-sufficient.

“The decision by the president to cut the aid… it is [his] prerogative to do that. We have to accept that. But to refer to my country like that, it is quite unfortunate.”

This wasn’t the first time Mr Trump has reportedly been disparaging about Africa. During his first term, it was reported that he referred to African nations, as well as Haiti and El Salvador, as “shithole countries” – though Mr Trump denied this.

Elon Musk, a key adviser to Mr Trump and proponent of the foreign aid cuts in his role as head of the new department of government efficiency, has been trying to do business in Lesotho in recent months.

Mr Musk’s Starlink internet satellite service, a subsidiary of SpaceX, has applied for a license to operate in Lesotho. It is one of several African countries where the company is bidding to win contracts.

The Lesotho Communications Authority said last month it recently received Starlink’s bid for a 10-year license.

Prince Harry also co-founded the charity Sentebale to support children who live in extreme poverty or suffer from HIV/AIDS in Lesotho.