Retirees are underestimating how long they will live

Published

2 years ago

July 3, 2023

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A significant share of older Americans underestimate how long their retirement is going to last: i.e., how long they are going to live.

Most people know that the average American lives to an age between 75 and 80. Less well known, apparently, is that life expectancy rises with age. At age 60, an American man can expect to reach 82; a woman, 85.

That knowledge is called longevity literacy, and many of us don’t have it. In a 2022 survey by the insurer TIAA, one-quarter of Americans underestimated the life expectancy of a 60-year-old. Another 28 percent said they didn’t know it.

Even among baby boomers, the youngest of whom are nearing 60, more than two-fifths of survey respondents either guessed low on longevity or punted on the question.

“We were kind of shocked to get the data,” said Surya Kolluri, the head of TIAA Institute, which produced the report.

Kolluri said he was particularly dismayed over the large share of respondents who could not answer the longevity question, which was multiple choice.

“We gave them the answer and they still said, ‘Eh, I don’t know,’” he said.

Confusion over human lifespan complicates the business of planning for retirement, a phase of life for which many Americans are already underprepared.

More than two-fifths of baby boomers have no retirement savings, even as the postwar generation enters retirement years, census data show.

The median boomer household held $134,000 in retirement savings in 2019, according to a NerdWallet analysis.

By most accounts, even that figure is not nearly enough. Human longevity doesn’t stop rising at 60. An American who retires at 65 can expect to live to 85, according to Social Security projections.

“We don’t know why people are so off in their expectations,” said Gal Wettstein, a senior research economist at Boston College. “I think there is some evidence that people don’t account for the fact that they’ve already lived to a certain age when they try to guess how long they might live.”

The biggest financial risk facing retirees is “outliving your savings,” Wettstein said, citing research from the school’s Center for Retirement Research.

That fact, too, is lost on many Americans. People approaching retirement wrongly assume that stock market volatility is their biggest financial peril, Wettstein said. In fact, the far greater risk is “living so long that your money runs out.”

Increasing lifespans ranks as one of the great human advances of the past century. An American born in 1900 could expect to reach 47. By 1950, life expectancy had risen to 68. U.S. lifespan peaked at 79 in 2019, then dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The longevity bonus has become more pronounced over time, as we outlive various perils that killed our forebears. A Stanford researcher examined people who live past 65 in developed countries and found that human lifespans increase by three years with every generation.

But such nuances are lost on many people outside the scholarly community.

Researchers at the Employee Benefit Research Institute have repeatedly surveyed Americans of all ages about longevity and found consistent befuddlement.

“One of the consistent things is that there were 20 percent of people who don’t know, who couldn’t give an answer,” said Craig Copeland, director of wealth benefits research at the institute. “So, you’re starting out with one-fifth of people with no idea of how long they were going to live.”

Retirees fared somewhat better on survey questions about longevity. In 2022, Copeland said, more than half of retired persons demonstrated knowledge that an American at 65 can expect to live 20 more years. Even in this group, however, one-fifth of respondents didn’t answer the question.

Boston College researchers have found that many working-age Americans are “pessimistic about how long they are going to live,” and underestimate their own expected longevity, Wettstein said.

Even people in their 50s and 60s “tend to think they’re not going to live very long, or not as long as the life expectancy of a person their age,” he said. “Where that kind of flips is in people’s 70s, which is late for making decisions about retirement.”

Women show much greater longevity literacy than men. In the TIAA survey, 43 percent of women answered the lifespan question correctly, compared to 32 percent of men.

“That concerns me,” Kolluri said of the male respondents, “because what it implies to me is that they’re incurring longevity risk, that they will outlive their money.”

People with greater literacy about human lifespans are more likely to save for retirement, Kolluri said. They are also more likely to have calculated how much money they will need. And they are more likely to be satisfied in retirement.

Lack of longevity literacy leaves many Americans unprepared to finance retirement. There are other factors.

Millions of Americans count on Social Security to see them through retirement. But monthly Social Security checks to retired workers average around $1,800, much less than the typical family spends in retirement.

Prior generations of retirees tapped employer-funded pensions. That income source has gradually given way to employer-sponsored retirement plans.

Yet, according to an AARP analysis, nearly half of Americans have no access to retirement plans at work, especially at smaller firms with fewer employees.

Workers who do save for retirement often don’t save enough. In the latest Retirement Confidence Survey from the Employee Benefit Research Institute, only 64 percent of workers voiced confidence that they would have enough money to live comfortably through their retirement years.

Another measure, Boston College’s National Retirement Risk Index, finds that roughly half of working-age American households are at risk of being financially unprepared for retirement.

Just as worrisome, perhaps, only about one-third of households are aware that they are unprepared.

Many families overestimate how much money they have on hand for retirement and underestimate how much more they will need. Homeowners often focus too much on the rising value of their home, and too little on how much they owe on the mortgage. Workers with retirement accounts may underestimate how far those funds will go. A $100,000 retirement nest egg translates to only about $600 in monthly retirement income. Too often, researchers say, a household has two wage earners but only one partner actively saving for retirement.

Outliving one’s retirement savings is only the largest among several risks Americans face when entering retirement. Another is covering the costs of long-term care.

More than half of Americans entering retirement today will eventually require “long-term services and supports,” at an average cost of $120,900, according to federal research.

“A semi-private room in a nursing home is about $100,000 a year, and that is a lot of money,” Wettstein said. “No doubt, for a lot of people, that would run through their savings very quickly.” UPS reaches deal that lowers chances of nationwide Teamsters strike Teamsters say strike still on the table at UPS

A recent analysis by the National Council on Aging found that 80 percent of people over 60 lack the financial resources to cover long-term care.

“You have this idea that Medicare will cover some of those costs, whereas in fact Medicare doesn’t generally cover most of those costs,” said Genevieve Waterman, director of economic and financial security at the National Council on Aging.

Worried about financing retirement? The National Council on Aging offers an Age Well Planner, and many investment sites feature retirement income calculators.

World

Terror group supporters posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google from site targeted in Indian airstrikes

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2 hours ago

May 10, 2025

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Terror group supporters posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google from site targeted in Indian airstrikes

Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.

Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.

Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.

Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.

The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.

‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.

In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.

The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.

India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir and Pakistan on 7 May came after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month.

Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.

LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.

LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.

Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.

Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”

Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.

TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.

Many of the accounts are linked to each other.

Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”

Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.

One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.

Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.

In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.

The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.

Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”

Sky News’ Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch has reported on the ground in Muridke.

India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.

MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”

Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”

Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.

On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

World

Ukraine and ‘coalition of the willing’ press Russia for 30-day ceasefire from Monday

Published

2 hours ago

May 10, 2025

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Ukraine and 'coalition of the willing' press Russia for 30-day ceasefire from Monday

European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer have threatened Vladimir Putin with fresh sanctions if Russia fails to comply with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

The prime minister met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv on Saturday.

It is the first time the leaders of the four countries have travelled to Ukraine – arriving by train – at the same time.

They updated Donald Trump on the progress made on the so-called “coalition of the willing” plans in a 20-minute phone call.

Following the summit, the leaders announced an agreement that there should be an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday, with the backing of the US president.

“All of us here, together with US, are calling Putin out,” said Sir Keir.

“So we are clear, all five leaders here – all the leaders of the meeting we just had with the coalition of the willing – an unconditional ceasefire, rejecting Putin’s conditions, and clear that if he turns his back on peace, we will respond.

“Working with President Trump, with all our partners, we will ramp up sanctions and increase our military aid for Ukraine’s defence to pressure Russia back to the table.”

It comes after Donald Trump called for “ideally” a 30-day ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow, and warned that if any pause in the fighting is not respected “the US and its partners will impose further sanctions”.

Security and defence analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News presenter Samantha Washington the European leaders are “rowing in behind” the US president, who referred to his “European allies” for the first time in this context in a post on his Truth Social platform.

“So this meeting is all about heaping pressure on the Russians to go along with the American proposal,” he said.

“It’s the closest the Europeans and the US have been for about three months on this issue.”

Mr Zelenskyy told reporters the agreed ceasefire should cover air, sea and land, and said that if Moscow refused, Russia would face new sanctions, including the strengthening of punitive measures targeting its energy and banking sectors.

The European leaders said the terms of a peace deal would be negotiated during the 30-day pause in fighting.

But the Ukrainian president said: “We have no illusions that the ceasefire will be breached.”

Mr Macron said the proposed ceasefire would be monitored mainly by the US and European countries and there would be “massive” sanctions if Russia did not agree.

Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for a coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.

This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying on Friday that Russia supported the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire, but only with due consideration of “nuances”.

European leaders show solidarity – but await Trump’s backing

Dominic Waghorn

International affairs editor

@DominicWaghorn

The hope is Russia’s unilateral ceasefire, such as it’s worth, can be extended for a month to give peace a chance.

But ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian sources told Sky News they are still waiting for President Donald Trump to put his full weight behind the idea.

The US leader has said a 30-day ceasefire would be ideal, but has shown no willingness yet for putting pressure on Russian president Vladimir Putin to agree.

The Russians say a ceasefire can only come after a peace deal can be reached.

European allies are still putting their hopes in a negotiated end to the war despite Moscow’s intransigence and President Trump’s apparent one-sided approach favouring Russia.

Ukrainians would prefer to be given enough economic and military support to secure victory.

But in over three years, despite its massive economic superiority to Russia and its access to more advanced military technology, Europe has not found the political will to give Kyiv the means to win.

Until they do, Vladimir Putin may decide it is still worth pursuing this war despite its massive cost in men and materiel on both sides.

As the European leaders pulled into Kyiv by train on Saturday, the screen on the platform announced the arrival of the “Bravery Express”.

Mr Zelenskyy accompanied them as they paid their respects at a memorial in central Kyiv to honour Ukrainian soldiers killed in the current war.

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The visit came on the final day of a three-day ceasefire unilaterally declared by Mr Putin, which was denounced as a sham by Ukraine.

Both sides have accused each other of violating it.

Environment

Trump’s crypto agenda is being threatened by his pursuit of personal profits

Published

2 hours ago

May 10, 2025

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Trump's crypto agenda is being threatened by his pursuit of personal profits

U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as he gives remarks outside the West Wing at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 8, 2025.

Kent Nishimura | Reuters

President Donald Trump is standing in his own way when it comes to passing crypto legislation.

Lawmakers this week rejected the GENIUS Act — a bill meant to establish federal rules for stablecoins — due in part to concerns that President Trump’s personal cryptocurrency ventures have created an unprecedented conflict of interest.

“Currently, people who wish to cultivate influence with the president can enrich him personally by buying cryptocurrency he owns or controls,” Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., said in a statement to CNBC explaining his opposition to the bill. “This is a profoundly corrupt scheme. It endangers our national security and erodes public trust in government.”

Stablecoins are digital currencies that are pegged to the value of other assets, like the U.S. dollar.

Getting anything passed in Congress is a steep uphill battle for Republicans given their razor-thin majority in the House, filibuster-proof requirement in the Senate, and Democrats’ increasingly unified stance against President Trump’s agenda. But enough Democrats appeared to be on board with a stablecoin law to bring about a rare bipartisan win for the president.

That’s until $TRUMP got in the way.

The president’s meme coin, which he launched just before the inauguration in January, has added billions of dollars of paper worth to his coffers. Its value soared last month after the project ran a promotion offering top $TRUMP holders a dinner with the president and a “VIP White House tour.” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., called it a “pay-for-play scheme.” First Lady Melania Trump has a coin as well.

The GENIUS bill failed to advance in the Senate on Thursday. It needed 60 votes to move to the Senate floor for final passage. The final tally was 48 in favor and 49 against. Three senators didn’t vote.

‘Ongoing self-dealing’

Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware was one of the four. She pointed directly at Trump’s financial entanglements.

“I also remain concerned about the ongoing self-dealing and financial conflicts of interest being carried out by the Trump family,” she wrote in a statement on Thursday.

It’s not just about the $TRUMP and $MELANIA meme coins. There’s also the Trump family crypto venture World Liberty Financial, which was established last year and launched a stablecoin just as the administration pushed for looser regulations on digital assets.

Reports have indicated that Abu Dhabi-based MGX is using Trump’s stablecoin for a $2 billion investment in crypto exchange Binance, creating yet another potential conflict of interest for a sitting president.

For some investors and entrepreneurs in the crypto industry, the president’s pursuit of personal profits is creating a major impediment to long-awaited advancements. After years of setbacks during the Biden administration, the crypto lobby became a powerful force in funding Trump’s 2024 campaign and in successfully backing industry-friendly candidates for Congress.

“It’s unfortunate that personal business is getting in the way of good policy,” said Ryan Gilbert, founder of fintech venture fund Launchpad Capital. “I would hope that everybody in the administration, including the president, gets out of the way of good policy.”

The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment. At a press conference on Friday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, when asked about the meme coin dinner, that “the president is abiding by all conflict of interest laws.”

“The president is a successful businessman, and I think it’s one of the many reasons that people reelected him back to this office,” Leavitt said.

Pantera's legal chief on what's next after Congress blocks key crypto bill

A number of top Democrats, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York have joined the parade of critics, targeting President Trump’s personal pursuits. Gillibrand helped introduce the GENIUS Act earlier this year, but she said this week that there are “a number of outstanding issues that needed to be addressed before the bill could pass the full Senate.”

“I believe it is essential to the future of the U.S. economy and to everyday Americans that we enact strict stablecoin regulations and consumer protections where none currently exist,” Gillibrand said in a statement. “I remain extremely confident and hopeful that very soon we can finish the job.”

Sen. Blumenthal called for an investigation into Trump-linked coins, demanding financial records from World Liberty Financial and slamming the president for “the attempted use of the White House to host competitions to prop up the value of $TRUMP.”

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona, had supported the GENIUS Act but said he couldn’t move forward this week after Republicans declined to provide more time to negotiate.

“Without more time to at least finish the bill, there was no true bipartisan path forward,” he wrote on X.

Launchpad’s Gilbert said the GENIUS Act is just the first piece. More broadly, the president’s conflicts could have an impact on hopes for other legislative achievements and deregulation efforts as well as the reputation of the U.S. crypto industry on the world stage.

“We will be the laughing stocks of the world for this particular reason, and it will hold back continued investment and innovation,” Gilbert said. “There was hope for the past six months that that we could lead in the United States, and that investment should pour into crypto-related businesses, and then it will be simpler and doable again, for all companies to take a lead and to invest in crypto assets.”

However, he said, “if the GENIUS Act doesn’t pass, we’re back to square one.”

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