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It’s almost time for the 2023 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby!

Spots for the most anticipated baseball event of the summer are filling up fast, and some of the biggest names in MLB will be taking aim at the T-Mobile Park bleachers on July 10 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).

One participant is sure to be especially popular with the crowd in Seattle this year: Mariners star Julio Rodriguez. While Rodriguez fell short in the finals against Juan Soto last summer, he became the first slugger to record multiple 30-homer rounds in a single derby — and a little home cooking might be just what he needs to win this year’s event.

As the field is announced, we break down each player chosen — and his case for getting in the way of J-Rod’s hometown coronation in the Emerald City.


Julio Rodriguez

2023 home runs: 13 | Longest: 454 feet

Why he could win: Soto outlasted him for the title last year in Los Angeles, but Rodriguez was clearly the star of the show as he belted long ball after long ball into the Hollywood air in front of a star-studded crowd. Rodriguez hit 32 home runs in the first round and 31 in the second round before running out of gas in the finals, so maybe he has learned to pace himself a little better this time around.

Why he might not: Rodriguez’s sophomore season hasn’t been quite on the level of his huge rookie year, when he won the American League Rookie of the Year Award. The Mariners outfielder has gone deep once every 25.7 at-bats this season, a pretty steep decline from his rate of a home run every 19.1 ABs last season.


2023 home runs: 12 | Longest: 450 feet

Why he could take down J-Rod: Much like Rodriguez did last year, Guerrero put on an absolute show in the 2019 Home Run Debry, but fell short of wearing the crown. In fact, his 91 home runs that night in Cleveland are the most ever in a single event. This season, Guerrero has posted the highest hard-hit percentage of his career — 56.6, the best of any competitor committed to this year’s Derby. It’s easy to picture him getting in one of those zones when he barrels ball after ball.

Why he might not: That career-high hard-hit rate hasn’t translated to a whole lot of in-game power production this year, as Guerrero’s 12 home runs through 81 games is far behind his usual pace.


2023 home runs: 22 | Longest: 426 feet

Why he could take down J-Rod: If there’s one thing we’ve learned over Betts’ career, it’s that he’s very good at just about everything he does. Betts is on pace for his first 40-home run season, and his 92.4 average exit velocity is a career high — at age 30 — so there’s reason to believe he’s getting stronger with age.

Why he might not: The Home Run Derby is as much an endurance contest as it is as a test of power. As a result, it is often ruled by hulking sluggers (think Pete Alonso, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton). The 5-foot-9 Betts will have to prove he can keep hitting long balls for three grueling rounds.


2023 home runs: 16 | Longest: 436 feet

Why he could take down J-Rod: Has any player in baseball shown more flair for the dramatic than Arozarena? First it was the 2020 playoffs, then most recently this year’s World Baseball Classic. No matter the event, the Tampa Bay star has made it clear: the brighter the lights, the better he performs. In addition to his ability to step up in big moments, Arozarena’s 16 home runs already has him just four long balls away from matching his career high.

Why he might not: For all of his personality, there’s still the question of how Arozarena will handle the Derby as a first-time participant. The best Derby competitors pace themselves for three rounds, and it’s easy to envision Arozarena, like J-Rod last year, dazzling early on before running out of gas.


Pete Alonso

2023 home runs: 25 | Longest: 448 feet

Why he could take down J-Rod: There might not be anyone on the planet who enjoys participating in the Home Run Derby more than Alonso. The Mets first baseman has a chance to become the second player to win the event three times, and would join someone Mariners fans know well if he can do it in Seattle: Ken Griffey Jr. Alonso’s 25 home runs this season are easily the most of anyone committed to this year’s Derby, and he has hit at least 37 home runs in every full season of his career.

Why he might not: History could repeat itself. It was Rodriguez who knocked Alonso out of last year’s Derby and that was without a crowd chanting “J-Rod” with every swing. Despite that, Alonso is the likely favorite to win again — and if we get a rematch of their 2022 Round 2 showdown, it could very well be the highlight of the night.


2023 home runs: 11 | Longest: 424 feet

Why he could take down J-Rod: Rutschman’s power numbers alone — just 24 home runs in nearly 700 career at-bats — make him a likely underdog for this year’s event, but there’s one thing the Orioles catcher has proven he is really good at: winning. Rutschman will need to transform himself into a true slugger in the same way he has transformed the Orioles into a contender since arriving in Baltimore. As a Portland native who played his college baseball at Oregon State, he should have plenty of fans in the ballpark hoping he can pull off a surprising victory in his return to the Pacific Northwest.

Why he might not: Besides the fact that no catcher has ever won the Home Run Derby, Rutschman is known more for his all-around ability than his power. His 11 home runs are the fewest of the competitors in this year’s field, as is his 88 mph average exit velocity. While Rutschman is clearly one of the game’s brightest young stars, his Statcast page doesn’t scream Home Run Derby champion.

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Can the Preakness’ venue save a downtrodden Baltimore neighborhood?

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Can the Preakness' venue save a downtrodden Baltimore neighborhood?

Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott’s childhood memories of the Preakness Stakes are more about the hardships the famed horse race imposed on his Park Heights neighborhood than any benefits the community reaped from the event. Sure, some enterprising residents and business owners made a few bucks selling water, letting fans park on their lawns and even charging for the use of their bathroom as throngs descended on the aging Pimlico Race Course for the second leg of racing’s Triple Crown.

But mostly, Scott said, he associates the Preakness with choking traffic, onerous parking restrictions and indiscriminate police sweeps aimed at making outsiders feel safe. “On the day before Preakness, you wouldn’t even go outside because they would come and roust people off the corner,” Scott recalled. “When I was growing up, we felt like Preakness was in Park Heights but not for Park Heights.”

Maryland political leaders are wagering $400 million that they can change the decades-old, arm’s-length relationship between the track and the neighborhood. The state legislature has approved a risky plan to use the struggling sport of horse racing to improve struggling Park Heights, a community living in the shadow of Pimlico and long burdened by rampant poverty, crime and disinvestment.

Last week, Gov. Wes Moore signed legislation to let a state-created nonprofit buy crumbling Pimlico from its private owners for $1, raze it and rebuild it with the neighborhood in mind as a profit-sharing partner. Before the community gets its cut, though, the state is obligated to pay $3 million annually to the current owners for rights to the Preakness, plus 2% of betting proceeds from the race — roughly another $2 million. The state also will use some of the $400 million outlay to build a separate horse training facility at one of several proposed sites in the Maryland suburbs.

With meager or no profits to show in recent years, a big question is how much would be left for Park Heights.

State officials said a big part of the track’s problem is its run-down condition. Pimlico dates back to 1870 and is widely recognized as the nation’s second-oldest race course. The facility is showing its age, having not undergone a major renovation in more than a half century. The clubhouse’s ceiling tiles are faded and water-stained. There is no working kitchen, and five years ago, a 6,700-seat section of its grandstand was closed because of safety concerns.

“It is not like anybody’s sneaking out and going to the race track, because it’s not inviting,” said Greg Cross, chair of the Maryland Thoroughbred Racetrack Operating Authority, which developed the Pimlico rebuilding plan. “I mean, why would you want to go there? Our task is to put the sexy back into Pimlico.” Through the years, Maryland lawmakers have made other efforts to prop up horse racing, but Cross said they amounted to “half-steps” that neither elevated the track-going experience nor helped the surrounding community. This time, he said, things will be different.

The commitment to rebuild the track will keep Baltimore as the home of the Preakness — a race that officials long worried could flee the city, and perhaps even the state. Pimlico also will become Maryland’s thoroughbred racing hub, with a new synthetic track touted as the safest surface for horses. Races would be run 140 days a year, up from the 23 dates in 2023. The goal is to uplift the sport’s sagging image and attract a new generation of horse racing fans with modern amenities, including a new clubhouse and a modern sportsbook.

For the community, there will be a 1,000-person event space that could host proms and other large parties, which officials say will create a new income stream for Pimlico. The project includes $10 million in housing for track workers. And Pimlico’s infield would be available for community events like festivals and concerts. There is also the possibility of a hotel, parking garages, retail and other development on the site. The plan calls for allocating 10% of the track’s profits to the neighborhood and exposing local students to racing and hospitality careers.

“The state is betting on itself — and we’re going all in,” Moore responded to an email query. He labeled the investment a “transformative deal” that would benefit both Pimlico and the local community.

Such urban-focused sports and entertainment developments around the country have yielded mixed results. Some investments have worked, but others haven’t paid off for surrounding neighborhoods. And there’s always the danger that success could bring unwanted gentrification. Nevertheless, community leaders agree with Moore that it’s worth a try.

Moore’s optimistic outlook contrasts with the currently bleak state of horse racing, suggesting that Maryland’s bet on Pimlico is far from a sure thing. The sport’s popularity has been declining, with the industry reporting the number of races, fans and betting revenue dwindling across the country as other legal gambling options proliferate. The danger racing poses to horses is a major hurdle in the sport’s bid to generate a new fan base. An estimated 2,000 horses die each year from racing-related injuries, according to Horseracing Wrongs, which advocates abolition of the sport.

In a 2019 poll commissioned by The Jockey Club, an industry group, nearly seven in 10 likely voters called horse fatalities a “very important” issue for the sport.

Attendance at Maryland’s two thoroughbred tracks, Laurel Race Course and Pimlico, was down 66% between 2013 and 2022, even as the number of racing days increased, according to the Maryland Racing Commission, which oversees the state’s horse racing industry. Over the past decade, the tracks averaged just 2,500 fans per day, not including the coronavirus years of 2020 and 2021, according to a state consultant’s report.

Meanwhile, the Stronach Group, the private owner of Pimlico and Laurel, has consistently reported to state officials that it is losing money. Over the past two years, the company said that it did not turn a profit on its most popular event, the Preakness.

So if horse racing is bleeding fans and money, how can it help Park Heights?

Pimlico Race Course sprawls over 140 acres of northwest Baltimore. The grounds are surrounded by tall fences, lined with trees and hedges, offering only glimpses of the concentric racing ovals and bucolic infield from the surrounding streets. The effect has been to wall off the community from what for years was a major economic asset. Pimlico is the most famous building in the neighborhood, but it stands apart from the rest of Park Heights.

The community is home to about 22,000 people, and for generations it has struggled with a host of challenges, including violent crime, widespread drug addiction, truancy and substandard housing.

“When I was a kid, every corner from Park Circle [on the neighborhood’s southern end] up to Rodgers [on the northern end, near Pimlico], was its own different drug shop,” said Scott, who recently turned 40. “The reason I am in public service is because the first time I saw someone shot, I was outside playing basketball at like 6 or 7 years old.”

There are many fine blocks in the neighborhood, some lined with stone-front row homes and tidy lawns. New development, including several apartment buildings and streets filled with rebuilt townhomes, have sprung up in recent years. But more obvious are the hundreds of decaying buildings and acres of vacant lots that scar Park Heights. Some of the vacant land extends for entire blocks, in part the result of a city effort that demolished more than 400 structures in the area since 2010, according to local development officials.

The commercial strips closest to Pimlico are mostly a collection of convenience stores, barber shops, carry-outs and small West Indian restaurants.

Community leaders have long complained that the track does nothing for local businesses. The sprinkling of racing fans who show up during the short spring meet are virtually invisible outside Pimlico’s gates. Even on Preakness weekend, when tens of thousands of racing fans stream into the track, betting millions of dollars, the action does not spill over appreciably into the neighborhood.

“Here’s a fun fact that is a challenge for me sometimes to swallow …” said Yolanda E. Jiggetts, chief executive officer of Park Heights Renaissance, a community development organization. “These businesses in Park Heights actually lose money historically during the Preakness.”

Elizabeth Wiseman, board co-chair of the Pimlico Community Redevelopment Compact, explained that during Preakness it is impossible to park on the street. Plus, she said, few Preakness goers even think to spend time or money in the neighborhood. “There is not the type of synergy we’d like to see in the future where people are walking fluidly from the track to the stores and restaurants,” she said.

Community leaders say they aren’t solely relying on the Pimlico project to uplift the neighborhood. A rebuilt Pimlico could be the catalyst Park Heights needs to boost its image and speed ongoing improvements, but in recent years, Jiggetts’ organization also has guided the building of several new housing developments and deployed a team of workers that cuts overgrown lawns, cleans alleys and annually removes more than a hundred tons of trash dumped in the neighborhood.

The group has also assembled a list of initiatives it hopes to complete over the next five years, including giving home-preservation grants to nearly 2,000 residents, launching new job training programs and developing additional new housing.

In all, the wish list of upgrades carries a price tag of more than $100 million, and community leaders believe a rebuilt Pimlico can help generate the momentum — and money — needed to fulfill it.

“It is something much larger than just horse racing,” said Desiree Eades, a real estate and development consultant for Park Heights Renaissance. “That’s why development [of the track] is so important.”

After years of feeling locked out of the business of the race track, many say they are encouraged that the neighborhood’s perspective is finally being considered alongside the needs of horse racing.

“For people in a community that most of the time feels like they’re not heard, they were heard,” said Bishop Troy Randall, founder of @The House, a social service program. “And not only heard, they were respected.”

Still, there is cause for skepticism. Given the declining popularity of horse racing, the fear is that Pimlico’s facelift might be coming too late to help Park Heights.

May 11, a Saturday, was the third day of Pimlico’s spring meet, aided by pleasant weather with the sun peeking through the clouds. Yet hardly anybody was at the track. All but a handful of the long lines of betting windows were closed. The couple hundred horse players in the place were able to spread out at banquet tables and benches facing simulcast screens and red picnic tables lined up near the rail next to the track’s home stretch.

“When we were pulling up to the parking lot, it was a little bleak to see so many empty parking spaces,” said Atlas Pyke, who was at the track with his mother, Joyce Lombardi. “We basically drove right up to the rail.” Both Pyke and Lombardi said they hoped a rebuilt track would draw more people to Pimlico. But the reality may be that horse racing is simply not popular anymore, they said.

“I’m not sure that it’s a sport that everyone can relate to or even condone,” said Lombardi, who grew up riding thoroughbreds in rural Maryland. “It’s not great for horses.”

Maryland’s equine industry generates $2 billion annually in economic impact, state officials say, with $600 million of it tied to horse racing. The industry is widely regarded as a cultural pillar of Maryland, which Cross, of the racetrack authority, said has more horses per capita than any other state in the country. Overall, the equine business is responsible for a quarter of Maryland’s greenspace, he added.

“There’s a disproportionate state impact in the continuation of the business,” Cross said. “But in order to have that economic impact be sustainable and continue, you need a big investment of capital. And the returns on the capital just aren’t enough for a private, for-profit operator to put in $400 million to $500 million, as we’re about to do.”

Under terms of the deal, the Preakness will stay at Pimlico this year and next, then move 21 miles southwest to Laurel while the facility is rebuilt. The hope is to return the event to Pimlico by 2027. After that, Laurel — located on more than 200 acres of prime land in the prosperous suburbs between Baltimore and Washington. D.C. — is slated to close.

Maryland officials expressed confidence they will be able to do what the Stronach Group could not in recent years: make money with Pimlico. “We think it will be more than profitable,” Cross said.

A financially healthy Pimlico that shares its bounty with the surrounding neighborhood is something local leaders are counting on.

Long before running the local development board, Jiggetts grew up in Park Heights. As a little girl, she would accompany her grandmother to the track so frequently that she got to know many of the people who worked there. Some of them would keep an eye on her while her grandmother placed bets. The track taught Jiggetts to love horses, but it also taught her the dangers of gambling. She says her grandmother fell into debt because of losses at the track.

“You know, that was her favorite pastime but also her addiction,” Jiggetts said. Now, she hopes the track can give something back. She wants to see people coming to Pimlico visiting local coffee shops, or dining at local restaurants after the races.

Banking on horse racing to help struggling Park Heights might be a long shot, but for many people from the neighborhood it looks like their best bet.

“You can see that stuff’s starting to happen,” Scott said. “People want to come back. Investment is happening. Reopening the rec center. Renovating the pool for the first time since it was built. Doing all of those things. Pimlico will just help us to unlock that.”

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Preakness Stakes: How to watch, what you need to know

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Preakness Stakes: How to watch, what you need to know

The 149th running of the $2 million Preakness Stakes takes place Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. It is the 13th of 14 races scheduled at Pimlico that day.

Coverage of the early races will begin at 1:30 p.m. ET on CNBC and stream on Peacock, and Preakness coverage starts at 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. It will also be available at NBCSports.com and on the NBC Sports app.

Post time Saturday is 7:01 p.m. ET.

What is the Preakness?

The Preakness is a Grade I race for 3-year-old horses that was first run in 1873. It was named in honor of the horse Preakness, who won the Dinner Party Stakes at the opening of Pimlico in 1870.

The 1 3/16-mile race is the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, a series of races for 3-year-old colts and fillies run over five weeks. The Triple Crown begins with the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday of May and concludes with the Belmont Stakes in June. The Preakness has been run in its traditional spot between the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes since 1931, with 2020 as the only exception, when the races were run in the fall due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

There have been 13 Triple Crown winners since 1919, and 23 horses have swept the Kentucky Derby and Preakness but failed to win the Belmont Stakes.

What happened last year?

National Treasure took an early lead and never gave it back, finishing first by a head over Blazing Sevens. Kentucky Derby winner Mage was 2¼ lengths back for third. National Treasure, trained by Bob Baffert, went on to finish sixth in the Belmont Stakes. He is still in training and most recently finished fourth in the Saudi Cup in February. Blazing Sevens, trained by Chad Brown, also remains in training and won an allowance race at Aqueduct in April. Mage was retired to stud last year.

What’s the story this year?

Muth, trained by Baffert, has been installed as the 8-5 morning line favorite ahead of Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, who is 8-2 on the morning line. If Muth is made the favorite by bettors when the race goes off, it will be the first time since 2012 that the Kentucky Derby winner is not favored in the Preakness.

That year, Bodemeister, also trained by Baffert, was installed as the betting favorite for both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. I’ll Have Another held off Bodemeister in both races, but was retired after the Preakness due to an injury.

Muth is following a similar path to last year’s winner, National Treasure. Both skipped the Kentucky Derby due to Baffert’s ban from race tracks owned by Churchill Downs Inc. Baffert, who won the Triple Crown with American Pharoah and Justify, has not been allowed to run a horse in the Kentucky Derby since he won the race with Medina Spirit in 2021. The 2021 Kentucky Derby winner, who collapsed and died following a workout in California later that year, tested positive for betamethasone, a substance banned on race day.

Churchill Downs Inc. disqualified Medina Spirit and banned Baffert from running a horse at their race tracks for two years. That ban was recently extended through the 2024 year, despite Baffert’s attempts to fight it in court. Baffert was also banned from running at Belmont Park or any New York Racing Association tracks for a year, but that ban was reversed in court after the 2021 Belmont Stakes.

Baffert broke the record for most Preakness wins by a trainer with his eighth win last year and is going for No. 9 with Muth.

Who are the contenders and pretenders this year?

There will be nine horses running in the Preakness Stakes this year, and only three are continuing on from the Kentucky Derby (Mystik Dan, fourth-place finisher Catching Freedom and 17th-place finisher Just Steel).

Mugatu (20-1)

Mugatu is trained by Jeff Engler and will be ridden by jockey Joe Bravo. Mugatu has only one lifetime win after breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park in November. His only Grade I effort was a fifth-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 6.

He is one of the most experienced horses in the race, with one win from 12 starts.

Uncle Heavy (20-1)

Uncle Heavy is a Pennsylvania-bred colt trained by Robert Reid Jr. and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. He won the Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Feb. 3.

His last race was a fifth-place finish in the Grade II Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 6. According to the official race chart, Uncle Heavy broke slow and had to race three-wide on the first turn, five-wide on the second turn, bumped with another horse and finished fifth after racing seven-wide in the stretch.

Catching Freedom (6-1)

Catching Freedom is trained by Brad Cox and will be ridden by Flavien Prat. He won the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 23 and closed to a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby down the stretch.

Catching Freedom rallied from 11th place to first in the Louisiana Derby, beating Honor Marie and Preakness opponent Tuscan Gold.

Muth (8-5)

Muth, trained by Baffert and who will be ridden by Juan Hernandez, was installed as the morning line favorite for a reason. He has the most stakes wins of his competition, having won the Grade I Arkansas Derby and Grade I San Vicente Stakes as a 3-year-old and the Grade I American Pharoah Stakes as a 2-year-old. He also finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November.

Muth won the Arkansas Derby while dueling with Timberlake down the stretch, kicking clear over both Just Steel and Mystik Dan for a two-length win.

Mystik Dan (9-2)

Mystik Dan is trained by Ken McPeek and ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr. McPeek became the first trainer since 1952 to sweep both the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks this year after winning the Oaks with Thorpedo Anna. McPeek won the 2020 running of the Preakness with filly Swiss Skydiver.

McPeek was initially unsure of moving on to the Preakness with Mystik Dan due to the two-week turnaround. Mystik Dan did not handle a short rest well as a 2-year-old, breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs on Nov. 12 but then finishing fifth in an allowance race at the track two weeks later.

Mystik Dan has had at least a month between races since then, winning the Southwest Stakes on Feb. 3, finishing third in the Arkansas Derby on March 30 and then winning the Kentucky Derby on May 4.

Seize the Grey (15-1)

Seize the Grey is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Jaime Torres. His 88-year-old trainer has won the Kentucky Derby four times, the Preakness six times and the Belmont Stakes four times. His most recent Preakness win came with Oxbow in 2013.

Seize the Grey won the Grade II Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard, which is his most significant win out of nine lifetime starts. He also finished third in the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 23 and seventh in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 6.

Just Steel (15-1)

Just Steel is the other Lukas trainee and will be ridden by Joel Rosario. Like Mugatu, he has more experience than most horses in the race, with 12 lifetime starts and five wins.

Just Steel finished 17th in the Kentucky Derby after fading a mile into the race.

He has hit the board in two graded stakes races, finishing second in the Arkansas Derby and second in the Grade III Southwest Stakes behind Mystik Dan.

Tuscan Gold (8-1)

Tuscan Gold is trained by Chad Brown and will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Gaffalione switches mounts after a controversial finish on Sierra Leone in the Kentucky Derby. Sierra Leone finished second in a photo finish after making contact with third-place finisher Forever Young, but neither jockey contested the finish after the conclusion of the race. Gaffalione was later fined $2,500 by stewards for his ride.

He is the least experienced horse in the race, with one win from three lifetime starts. He has raced only once as a 3-year-old, finishing third in the Louisiana Derby on March 23 behind Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.

Imagination (6-1)

Imagination is the second of two entrants trained by Baffert and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori.

Imagination has not raced since a second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby on April 6. He won the Grade II San Felipe Stakes against three other horses at Santa Anita Park on March 3.


Weather forecast

There is a 35% chance of thunderstorms Saturday , according to Accuweather. The Preakness was last run on a sloppy track when Justify won in 2018 and was also run on sloppy tracks in 2015 (American Pharoah) and 2016 (Exaggerator).

The last time the Preakness was run on a sloppy track was 2017, when Justify won the second leg of the Triple Crown. American Pharoah (2015) and Exaggerator (2016) also won the Preakness on sloppy tracks.


Betting strategy

Horses close to the pace generally run well in the Preakness, and National Treasure fit that profile last year after cruising to an early lead and holding it. Early Voting was also close to the pace when he won the 2022 running.

That’s one reason it could be Muth’s race to lose, but his history against several of his opponents and the amount of rest he has gotten are question marks.

Muth won’t bring a great price based on his morning line odds, but neither will Mystik Dan, who didn’t rebound well the last time he was off short rest.

Uncle Heavy is one of the more interesting long shots after a troubled trip in his last race. His win in the Withers Stakes came on a muddy, sealed track after he closed down the stretch to win by a nose. If the track is wet, consider him in bets.

Imagination might not be as good as his stablemate, Muth, but he has never been worse than second in any of his six lifetime starts and has to be considered. He’ll likely be near the front, like his stablemate.

Terrell’s picks for the Preakness

Win: Muth
Exacta: Muth over Imagination
Trifecta: Muth over Imagination, Mystik Dan and Uncle Heavy in third

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‘NBA teams have been tracking this kind of stuff for years’: Why load management is MLB’s next big thing

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'NBA teams have been tracking this kind of stuff for years': Why load management is MLB's next big thing

FOR DECADES, the story of a major league game has been told by the familiar numbers in a box score: runs, hits, errors, home runs, strikeouts.

But now, there is another chart your favorite team looks at after games, one that few outside the sport’s inner circle have seen: color-coded grid-like documents that measure the workload of every player who took the field that day.

Baseball might not be the first sport that comes to mind when you hear the term “load management,” but MLB teams are becoming obsessed with it. In baseball, the discussion is about keeping position players on the field and performing their best.

Teams monitor everything players do, starting with the obvious — how much distance has he covered on a given night, both on the basepaths and defensively in the field. Tracking also takes into account the small details that go into the equation — how many times did a player take off from first base on a full count? How frequently did he dive for a ball in the infield? Each bit of information helps teams get ahead of potential health problems or dips in production.

“I’ve taken a lot of interest in it in my second career as a manager,” Cincinnati Reds skipper David Bell said. “As a player, you think you’re invincible and can play every day. But the grind of the season in baseball is an extreme challenge. Over time, it’s compounded.

“The grind is harder. The game is more difficult.”

At a time when analytics have become a standard element of almost every front office decision, optimizing player workload is seen as one of the few remaining areas teams can gain an edge. Now that technology has emerged to allow clubs to measure movement like never before, the race to find the best information — and how to communicate it to players — is on.

“There are other sports that are way ahead of us,” Milwaukee Brewers general manager Matt Arnold said. “Soccer and NBA teams have been tracking this kind of stuff for years. We have room to grow in our industry.”

With clubs learning every day, ESPN asked MLB executives, managers and players what the increasing interest in load management means to their sport — and how their teams are using the data.


THERE IS NO other sport that demands its athletes take the field as often as professional baseball does. Sure, MLB players aren’t tasked with constant running, but every movement adds up and leads to a cumulative fatigue over the length of the season.

“You might go 10 games without ever accelerating, but you might throw a bunch from the outfield,” Chicago Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said.

Enter the grids, which track each of those movements cumulatively. The San Diego Padres, for example, track workloads for their players in running 30-day increments, using sheets color-coded for high-effort runs, top sprint speed and taxing defensive movements. Some teams believe their information is proprietary, keeping it close to the vest. Everyone has a different slant as to how they track load management.

“We have a report that comes out every morning that includes what’s pertinent from the last game,” Seattle Mariners executive vice president and general manager of baseball operations Justin Hollander said. “Sort of a running total on where guys might be at, based on workload over a longer period of time.”

ESPN was granted permission to observe several teams’ load management grids, and while the tracking tools look different in every front office, there is a common theme in many of the printouts: The darker the color, the more that player has moved around, often on a gradient of white to dark red.

As you would expect, baseball’s biggest stars often have their names in the darkest hues, as they are in the lineup every day and, with a few exceptions, run the bases more than the average player.

“He lives in the red zone,” Houston Astros manager Joe Espada said of two-time All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman.

Once a team has identified a player entering that danger range, the process shifts from spreadsheets to action plans. The challenge in adjusting pre and postgame work is that fatigue is a moving target. Is the team in a stretch of the schedule without days off? Did it play extra innings recently? And what has the player actually been doing on the field?

“We have a more evidenced-based way to measure where you’re truly at, fatigue-wise,” Hollander said. “I think a lot of teams incorporate that into routines, work you do in pregame, work you do in postgame and, of course, days off.”

Each manager faces a different challenge. After his team’s deal for Luis Arraez, Padres manager Mike Shildt revolves around rotating infielders between their regular position and DHing. In the Astros’ case, Espada is particularly cognizant of the additional workload over the past few years thanks to the team’s postseason success. As one rival executive put it: “The whole team lives in the red zone.”

“I take into consideration that our players have played the most games of any team over the last six, seven years,” Espada said. “When guys are starting to trend in the red zone, we try to make sure to control the volume of their pregame work or give them a day at DH or a day off. But we try to do that before they get into the red zone.”


FRONT OFFICES ALSO face the reality that players don’t all love the idea of being told to sit down because a heat map says it might be time. It’s been ingrained in many of them to play every day no matter how their bodies feel, and some simply prefer to play through fatigue rather than listen to what tracking technology tells them.

Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson had that mindset, playing in all but two regular-season games from 2020 to 2022. Now, though, a late-season dip in production at the end of last year and a slow start to this season have him thinking differently.

“I don’t like changing what works for me but I’ve had to this year, in order to be the best player possible,” said Swanson, who turned 30 during the offseason. “We all sat down and collaborated on a new [pre/postgame] plan that would work for me like just two weeks ago.

“It’s a different way of putting pennies into the piggy bank.”

Other stars still prefer the heavier workload, fearing that sitting even for a game will hurt their production more than resting would help it.

“I feel like I play better when I’m in the red,” Bregman said. “I feel like I show up to the ballpark to play every single day and I want to play 162 plus postseason every year.”

This is where front offices and coaching staffs have learned to collaborate with players, finding ways to lighten their load behind the scenes while still allowing them to appear in games. The manager is often the middleman between the medical team, strength coaches and players.

In the Astros’ case, Bregman works with Espada to control pregame volume. Padres infielder Xander Bogaerts does the same with Shildt, starting with eliminating batting practice and then, if needed, cutting down on lifting weights.

In his first year as San Diego’s manager after spending last year as the team’s bench coach, Shildt has learned that telling a player he needs to take a game off isn’t the best approach. Instead, he’ll suggest a DH day or an altered plan for before and after the game.

“If that collaboration isn’t taking place and we don’t mesh those things appropriately, you’re going to have a much higher risk of injury or poor performance,” Shildt said. “From my seat, what’s important is the daily schedule. We monitor the efficiency of the pregame work. That’s the best word to use, I think. How efficient are we with our work beyond the game?”

As the concept of load management spreads through baseball, the sheets telling the story of a player’s status might look a little different in every front office. But the goal for every team is the same: Getting ahead of fatigue so players can perform at their best — instead of learning too late that they could have used a day off after experiencing an injury or a prolonged slump.

“It’s not about trying to limit anybody,” Arnold said. “It’s about keeping them on the field as much as possible.”

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