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Do you want to believe that New York City is in an urban doom cycle?

Its easy if you just ignore indisputable facts.

Take major crimes, an NYPD metric thats distorted upward by skyrocketing auto theft even as the crimes we fear most murder, shootings, and rape continue to ebb lower from last years totals.

Surprise! Murders are on track to be 40% fewer this year than they were in crime-busting Rudy Giulianis last two years as mayor when they were 673 and 649 respectively.

At the midpoint of 2023, weve had 193 murders, on track for a total of around 400 down from 488 in 2021 and 438 in 2022.

Ah, but there were only 319 murders in 2019!

True, but nobody foresaw the end of the world in 2010 when murders jumped to 536 over 471 in 2009 even though then-Mayor Michael Bloombergs stop-and-frisk was in full force.

As the late, great Yankees skipper Casey Stengel often said, you can look it up.

Misperceptions of crime do have a rational basis, though: an ever-increasing street disorder that might not kill but threatens us in other ways lawless cyclists, open-air drug use, unchecked shoplifting, and raving maniacs who might or might not come at us with knives.

The sense of a city sprung and lurching, beyond the governments will or ability to rein in, creates a mood where actual violent crime may seem more prevalent than it is.

But the supposed inevitability of urban collapse due to remote work another article of faith among New Yorks dark prophets has no visible basis other than suspect computer models. 

Never mind that sidewalks are packed, subway riderships up and apartments are in more demand than ever were doomed!

A recent, endlessly cited paper titled Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse by three learned scholars Arpit Gupta of NYU and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University declared that fewer employees working in offices portend the collapse of property values which in turn portends the collapse of the municipal treasury and, by implication, the end of life on earth as we know it.

The portrayal of a city in its death throes casts a destructive damper on the Big Apple as it continues its fitful recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Dystopian claims take on an aura of unchallengeable truth for those impressed with mathematical equations unintelligible to anyone without a Ph. D.

Who could argue with them?

Well, maybe anybody who ever got a sunburn after a computer model warned of downpours.

The authors are great with numbers but out of touch with Manhattan real-estate reality.

For starters, they rely on Kastle Systems, a security-services provider, to quantify todays supposedly paltry physical office presence a mere 50%, Kastle says. 

But Kastles survey has been widely debunked for its inadequate, worst-case sample.

It covers mostly second-tier office buildings but not the superior buildings owned by the citys 10 largest landlords such as SL Green, Vornado Realty Trust, and Related Companies.

Those so-called Class-A and A-plus properties are the heart of Manhattans half-billion-square-foot office inventory.

Theyre much more than half full because theyre leased to companies that require the most office attendance financial institutions and law firms. 

The Real Estate Board of New York and the Partnership for New York City report considerably higher occupancy than Kastles up to 90% in some premier locations.

But theyd undercut Apocalypse right at the starting gate. 

Sure, commercial landlords are under pressure.

Owners of some older buildings could face bankruptcy.

But even if the overall value of New York City office locations falls 43.9% by 2029 an Apocalypse projection shared by no other analysis would it be the end of the world for the city as a whole?

Maybe it would if there were no actual people involved such as elected officials, landlords, other business leaders, and people just sick of working remotely to arrest the decline. 

Just as Tom Hanks as Capt. Chesley Sullenberger shredded investigators attempt to blame him for the crash computers showed could have been avoided Lets get serious you have not taken into account the human factor so does Apocalypse fall apart the moment whats now called human agency is added. 

Maybe more employees will come back to offices a trend thats gaining traction as bosses read them the riot act.

Landlords might find that they need as much space as before even if employees only come in three or four days a week.

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Maybe owners will find ways to convert more office buildings to other uses than is currently thought possible.

Maybe another Wall Street boom will impel more companies to expand, as private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice just did by doubling its square footage in a move to 550 Madison Ave.

The assumption of shrunken tax revenue is based on the notion that buildings will lose value due to remote work.

But will they?

SL Green just sold a 49% share of 245 Park Ave. to Japans Mori Trust in a deal that values the nearly 60-year-old property at $2 billion.

Thats hardly a catastrophic plunge from the towers last sale price of $2.2 billion in 2017 when the market was at its peak.

Comptroller Brad Lander reported last week to some surprise that office-building values actually increased from 2021 to 2022 to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

He wrote that even if office values were to fall by 40%, it would cost the city no more than $1.1 billion in annual property tax revenue by 2027 a mere 3% of all property tax collections, only 1% of the overall budget and well within the range in which tax revenues can ordinarily vary.

For all its intimidating graphs and equations, Apocalypse works the same sensationalist street as alarmist, headline-grabbing forecasts by credentialed experts that turned out to be bogus.

There was no population bomb that caused global famine as foreseen by Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne Howland Ehrlich in 1968; no Great Depression of 1990 as predicted by best-selling economist Ravi Batra in 1987; and no World War III with Japan as envisioned by geopolitical analysts George Friedman and Meredith LeBard 

Therell be no real estate apocalypse, either. 

Hold the taps for New York City, psychos, and all.

Theres nothing certain about our future, of course.

But one day well look back on the Doom Loop and marvel that it panicked so many of us who are.

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Politics

Budget 2025: Over a third of Britons think Rachel Reeves exaggerated bad news

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Budget 2025: Over a third of Britons think Rachel Reeves exaggerated bad news

Over a third of people think Rachel Reeves exaggerated economic bad news in the run-up to the budget – twice as many as thought the chancellor was being honest, a new Sky News poll has found.

Some 37% told a YouGov-Sky News poll that Ms Reeves made out things were worse than they really are. This is much higher than the 18% who said she was broadly honest, and the 13% who said things were better than she presented.

This comes in an in-depth look at the public reaction to the budget by YouGov, which suggests widespread disenchantment in the performance of the chancellor.

Just 8% think the budget will leave the country as a whole better off, while 2% think it will leave them and their family better off.

Some 52% think the country will be worse off because of the budget, and 50% think they and their family will be worse off.

This suggests the prime minister and chancellor will struggle to sell last week’s set-piece as one that helps with the cost of living.

Some 20% think the budget worried too much about help for older people and didn’t have enough for younger people, while 23% think the reverse.

The poll found 57% think the chancellor broke Labour’s election promises, while 13% think she did not and 30% are not sure. Some 54% said the budget was unfair, including 16% of Labour voters.

And it arguably gets worse…

This comes as the latest Sky News-Times-YouGov poll showed Labour and the Tories are now neck and neck among voters.

The two parties are tied on 19% each, behind Reform UK on 26%. The Greens are on 16%, while the Liberal Democrats are on 14%.

This is broadly consistent with last week, suggesting the budget has not had a dramatic impact on people’s views.

However, the verdict on Labour’s economic competence has declined further post-budget.

Asked who they would trust with the economy, Labour are now on 10% – lower than Liz Truss, who oversaw the 2022 mini-budget, and also lower than Jeremy Corbyn in the 2019 election.

The Tories come top of the list of parties trusted on the economy on 17%, with Reform UK second on 13%, Greens on 8% and Lib Dems on 5%. Nearly half, 47%, don’t know or say none of them.

Only 57% of current Labour voters say the party would do the best job at managing the economy, falling to 25% among those who voted Labour in the 2024 election.

Some 63% of voters think Ms Reeves is doing a bad job, including 20% of current Labour voters, while just 11% of all voters think she is doing a good job.

A higher proportion – 69% – think Sir Keir Starmer is doing a bad job.

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World

Pope Leo urges Donald Trump not to try to oust Venezuelan president by force

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Pope Leo urges Donald Trump not to try to oust Venezuelan president by force

The Pope has urged Donald Trump not to try to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro using military force.

Leo, the first American pontiff, said it would be better to attempt dialogue or impose economic pressure on Venezuela if Washington wants to pursue change there.

The Trump administration has been weighing options to combat what it has portrayed as Mr Maduro’s role in supplying illegal drugs that have killed Americans.

The socialist Venezuelan president has denied having any links to the illegal drug trade.

Pope Leo XIV aboard a flight to Rome. Pic: Reuters
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Pope Leo XIV aboard a flight to Rome. Pic: Reuters

Asked during a news conference about President Trump’s threats to remove Mr Maduro by force, the Pope said: “It is better to search for ways of dialogue, or perhaps pressure, including economic pressure.”

He added that Washington should search for other ways to achieve change “if that is what they want to do in the United States”.

The Pope was speaking as he flew home from a visit to Turkey and Lebanon – his first overseas trip in the role.

Mr Maduro has said Venezuelans are ready to defend their country as the US considers a land attack.

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas. Pic: Reuters

The president held a rally in Caracas amid heightened tensions with Mr Trump’s administration, which has been targeting what it says are boats carrying drug smugglers.

Mr Trump met his national security team on Monday evening, having warned last week that land strikes would start “very soon”.

It’s not been confirmed what was discussed at the meeting, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters: “There’s many options at the president’s disposal that are on the table – and I’ll let him speak on those.”

US forces have carried out at least 21 strikes on boats it claims were carrying narcotics to its shores over the last few months.

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‘The president has a right to take them out’

Mr Maduro – widely considered a dictator by the West – said on Monday that Venezuelans are ready “to defend [the country] and lead it to the path of peace”.

“We have lived through 22 weeks of aggression that can only be described as psychological terrorism,” he said.

Venezuela has said the boat attacks, which have killed more than 80 people, amount to murder – and that Mr Trump’s true motivation is to oust Mr Maduro and access its oil.

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World

Maduro says Venezuela ready to defend itself as US considers potential land attack

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Maduro says Venezuela ready to defend itself as US considers potential land attack

Nicolas Maduro has said Venezuelans are ready to defend their country as the US considers a land attack.

The president held a rally in Caracas amid heightened tensions with Donald Trump’s administration, which has been targeting what it says are boats carrying drug smugglers.

Mr Trump met his national security team on Monday evening, having warned last week that land strikes would start “very soon”.

An image of an alleged drug boat being targeted by the US military. Pic: Truth Social
Image:
An image of an alleged drug boat being targeted by the US military. Pic: Truth Social

It’s not been confirmed what was discussed at the meeting, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters: “There’s many options at the president’s disposal that are on the table – and I’ll let him speak on those.”

US forces have carried out at least 21 strikes on boats it claims were carrying narcotics to its shores over the last few months, and the White House has accused Mr Maduro of being involved in the drugs trade – a claim he denies.

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‘The president has a right to take them out’

‘Psychological terrorism’

Mr Maduro – widely considered a dictator by the West – said on Monday that Venezuelans are ready “to defend [the country] and lead it to the path of peace”.

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“We have lived through 22 weeks of aggression that can only be described as psychological terrorism,” he said.

Venezuela has said the boat attacks, which have killed more than 80 people, amount to murder – and that Mr Trump’s true motivation is to oust Mr Maduro and access its oil.

Concerns have been raised over the legality of the US attacks, which the Pentagon has sought to justify by designating the gangs as foreign terror organisations.

Maduro was championed by supporters as he spoke on Monday. Pics: Reuters
Image:
Maduro was championed by supporters as he spoke on Monday. Pics: Reuters

Controversy over US strikes

Tensions remain high over America’s large deployment in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific, which includes its flagship aircraft carrier and thousands of troops.

The US has released videos of boats being blown up but has not provided evidence – such as photos of drugs – to support the smuggling claims.

Controversy also surrounds the first incident, on 2 September, in which 11 people were killed – with a follow-up strike targeting the boat after the first attack left two survivors in the water.

US media reported defence secretary Pete Hegseth gave an order that everyone on board should be killed.

However, there are concerns about the legality of the second strike if the survivors posed no threat.

Mr Hegseth dismissed the reporting as “fake news” and insisted all actions in the region are compliant with US and international law.

“Every trafficker we kill is affiliated with a Designated Terrorist Organization,” he said on X.

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Is US about to go to war with Venezuela?

Mr Trump said on Sunday he would not have wanted a second strike and that Mr Hegseth had denied giving such an order.

Ms Leavitt confirmed on Monday that the boat had been hit by a second strike – but denied Mr Hegseth gave the order for the follow-up.

Instead, she said he had authorised US navy vice admiral Frank Bradley to attack, and the admiral acted “well within his authority and the law, directing the engagement to ensure the boat was destroyed and the threat to the US was eliminated”.

Read more from Sky News:
Hong Kong fire: 13 arrested as death toll hits 151
More than 1,100 confirmed dead in Asia floods

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Trump: Maduro call neither ‘went well or badly’

As the US weighs its next steps, Mr Trump said on Sunday he had spoken to Mr Maduro by phone and that the conversation went neither “well or badly”.

In recent days, he also stated that Venezuela’s airspace should be considered closed – with the South American nation calling it a “colonial threat” and “illegal, and unjustified aggression”.

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