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Bad news for nervous flyers: Turbulence is getting worse as the planet warms

Published

2 years ago

July 6, 2023

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A plane flying over Northamptonshire, England. For many, turbulence is an uncomfortable part of air travel.

Joe Giddens – Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty Images

Turbulence during a flight can be an uncomfortable experience for many, ranging from mild bumpiness to more serious instances of damaged airplanes and injured passengers.

With millions of people jetting off on their summer vacations, a recent study from researchers in England provides some challenging, but important, reading.

According to the analysis, which was published in Geophysical Research Letters in June, clear-air turbulence (CAT) became increasingly prevalent in certain parts of the world between 1979 and 2020.

Related to wind shear, clear-air turbulence presents a specific challenge to pilots because it’s tricky to identify ahead of time and can appear without warning.

The World Meteorological Organization, for example, says CAT “often — though not necessarily always — occurs in the absence of cloud, making it difficult to detect visually.”

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In an announcement accompanying the report’s release, the University of Reading laid out some of the researchers’ key findings.

“At a typical point over the North Atlantic — one of the world’s busiest flight routes — the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020,” it said.

In addition, moderate turbulence jumped from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, while light turbulence hit 546.8 hours, up from 466.5.

The university went on to state that warmer air from carbon dioxide emissions “is increasing windshear in the jet streams, strengthening clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic and globally.”

The paper’s authors say their research “represents the best evidence yet that CAT has increased over the past four decades, consistent with the expected effects of climate change.”

Aircraft passengers are required to fasten their seatbelt when the sign is illuminated, and advised to keep it secured for the duration of a flight.

Pedrojperez | Istock | Getty Images

Paul Williams, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading and co-author of the study, spoke to CNBC and provided some context to the findings.

“[This] doesn’t necessarily mean planes are encountering turbulence, clear air turbulence, 55% more often because, of course, planes try and avoid it and they’ve been getting very good at avoiding it,” he said.

There is, however, “more turbulence in the atmosphere, full stop.”

“I think … it’s hard to believe that there could be 55% more turbulence in the atmosphere and for planes not to be encountering it more,” Williams said. He also made it clear that the report analyzed atmospheric observations rather than directly looking at aircraft measurements of turbulence.

The costs of turbulence

The consequences of severe turbulence vary.

Williams said they could include “internal damage to the aircraft from objects and people … colliding with the insides, usually the ceiling, and more mundanely just routine wear and tear or what engineers call ‘fatigue’ on the aeroplane.”

In a statement issued last month, Mark Prosser, a PhD researcher at the University of Reading and co-author of the study, highlighted the financial implications of turbulence.

“Airlines will need to start thinking about how they will manage the increased turbulence, as it costs the industry $150–500m annually in the USA alone,” he said, referencing a figure on a website related to the NCAR Research Applications Laboratory.

“Every additional minute spent travelling through turbulence increases wear-and-tear on the aircraft, as well as the risk of injuries to passengers and flight attendants,” Prosser added.

How to manage it

What then, can be done to mitigate or manage clear-air turbulence? Among other things, Williams stressed the importance of improving forecasting.

“We need more research into understanding exactly what generates turbulence and how to calculate it,” he said. “I think we should be investing in better turbulence forecasting research.”

When it comes to technology, there’s room for significant developments in the years ahead, even if challenges remain.

“Although the radar on the flight deck can’t see … clear air turbulence, there’s a related technology called LIDAR that stands for light detection and ranging,” Williams said.

LIDAR, Williams explained, operates on the same principles as radar but uses ultraviolet light and lasers instead.

“By using that different wavelength of light, we can see invisible clear air turbulence ahead,” he said.

“They’ve done test flights and it works about … up to 20 miles ahead of the aircraft … [so] you can see it on the screen in the cockpit and put the seatbelt sign on and try and fly around it.”

There’s one big catch, however. “Unfortunately it’s very expensive and also comes in a big heavy box, which you don’t want really to go on a plane to add weight onto the aircraft,” Williams said.

While it’s not being used at the moment, things could change.

“In future, as it presumably becomes miniaturized and the cost comes down and there’s more turbulence in the atmosphere as well, we might see aircraft retrofitted with LIDAR. And that would be a game changer if it happens,” Williams said.

‘Keep your seatbelt fastened’

Is the problem of turbulence going to get worse?

“It’s certainly dependent on our emissions,” Williams said. “Each additional one degree Celsius of warming implies an extra amount of turbulence,” he added.

“To that extent it’s in our control … [because] we can control the warming from our emissions. But, you know, I think … unless we do something drastic, there’s more turbulence on the cards in the coming decades.”

Williams also had some measured words of comfort for flyers who may feel concerned about such an outlook.

“I’m not suggesting that it’s going get so bad that planes will start falling out of the sky or we’ll have to stop flying in certain parts of the world,” he said.

Severe turbulence, he added, is “quite rare — only 0.1% of the atmosphere at 40,000 feet has severe turbulence in it, so if you’re on a plane it’s very unlikely that your plane will hit that 0.1%.”

“However, given the number of planes in the skies, one of them will. But even if turbulence were to treble, it would still just be 0.3% of the atmosphere.”

His advice to passengers is straightforward. “I don’t think there’s a major worry here for passengers.”

“It’s sensible, of course, to keep your seatbelt fastened, just in case you’re unlucky and you do hit that tiny part of the atmosphere that has the turbulence in it.”

Environment

Rivian (RIVN) plans to roll out hands-free driving this year, eyes-free system in 2026

Published

2 hours ago

January 23, 2025

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Rivian (RIVN) plans to roll out hands-free driving this year, eyes-free system in 2026

Rivian (RIVN) plans to launch a new Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) this year to enable hands-free driving. The new feature is expected to be similar to Tesla’s Full-Self Driving (FSD). In 2026, Rivian will up the ante with an “eyes-free” system.

Rivian plans hands-free driving in 2025, eyes-free in 2026

At the new Rivian Space opening in San Francisco on Thursday, CEO RJ Scaringe revealed a few exciting developments to look forward to.

According to the folks at RivianForums, Scaringe said during the event that the company plans to launch a hands-free ADAS feature in 2025. Next year, Rivian will follow it up with an “eyes-free” system.

The big question is, will current Rivian R1S and R1T owners gain access? It could depend on whether you drive a Gen 1 or Gen 2 model. All Rivian models built through 2024 are considered Gen 1, while models 2025 and newer are Gen 2.

Rivian introduced the second-generation R1S and R1T last summer. They were “completely reengineered” with hundreds of hardware improvements, fully redesigned software, and more.

The upgrades include its new in-house autonomy system, Rivian Autonomy Platform. It’s powered by 11 cameras, five radars, and predictive AI.

Rivian said the new platform is “10 times more powerful” than the old system. It also features 360-degree visibility with 8X the number of camera pixels than the previous models. Gen 2 models already include features like Blind Spot Monitoring and Highway Assist.

With the premium version, drivers gain access to Lane Change, while Rivian said Enhanced Highway Assist and other features were coming soon.

Although all Rivian R1S and R1T EVs include OTA updates, some features may require additional hardware or software not included on Gen 1 models.

Rivian hands-free and attention-free autonomous highway driving will be available on the upcoming R2 model. The smaller electric SUV is due out in the first half of 2026, starting at around $45,000.

Electrek’s Take

As a Tesla Model 3 driver, I can tell you that Full-Self Driving (FSD) is fun and can be helpful at times. I’ve used it on longer trips, like through the Blue Ridge Mountains, and it makes driving or sitting in the car a little more enjoyable.

Although the system still requires you to pay attention, it enables the vehicle to drive itself almost anywhere with “minimal driver intervention.”

The new Actually Smart Summon feature is one of my favorites. Through the Tesla app, you can summon your vehicle to come to you in a parking lot. The vehicle will then move around other cars, people, and objects to find you.

Other functions, like Navigate on Autopilot, will take over while the vehicle is on the highway, changing lanes (with turn signals) and braking or accelerating as needed.

For Rivian owners, it would be like an upgraded system from Highway and Lane Change Assist. The “eyes-free” system coming next year will likely have a few regulatory hurdles to pass before it rolls out, so it should be interesting to see what that will consist of. Check back for more info soon. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.

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Environment

The world’s largest solar + storage project will deliver power 24/7

Published

3 hours ago

January 23, 2025

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The world's largest solar + storage project will deliver power 24/7

world's largest solar storage — Photo: Masdar

The United Arab Emirates is building the world’s largest solar and battery storage project that will dispatch clean energy 24/7.

Emirati Renewable energy company Masdar (Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company) and Emirates Water and Electricity Company (EWEC) are developing the trailblazing solar and battery storage project. Once it’s online, will become the largest combined solar and battery energy storage system (BESS) in the world.

Located in Abu Dhabi, the project will feature a 5.2 GW solar PV plant coupled with a 19 gigawatt-hour (GWh) BESS.

His Excellency Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, minister of industry and advanced technology and chairman of Masdar, said:

For decades, the biggest barrier facing renewable energy has been intermittency – to be able to source uninterrupted clean power day and night.

In collaboration with EWEC and our partners, we will develop a renewable energy facility capable of providing clean energy round the clock.

For the first time ever, this will transform renewable energy into a world-leading 1 GW of reliable baseload energy every day on an unprecedented scale – a first step that could become a giant leap for the world.

Masdar announced China’s JA Solar and Jinko Solar, two of the world’s largest solar panel suppliers, and Chinese battery and BESS giant CATL as preferred suppliers. JA Solar and Jinko Solar will supply 2.6 GW of solar panels each. India’s Larsen & Toubro and POWERCHINA have been selected as preferred engineering, procurement, and construction contractors.

Masdar says the project will create 10,000 jobs and doesn’t yet indicate a projected completion date.

To limit power outages and make your home more resilient, consider going solar with a battery storage system. In order to find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and you share your phone number with them.

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*

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Environment

Trump signs executive order promoting crypto, paving way for digital asset stockpile

Published

3 hours ago

January 23, 2025

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Trump signs executive order promoting crypto, paving way for digital asset stockpile

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a signed executive order on cryptocurrencies in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Jan. 23, 2025.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to promote the advancement of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. and to work toward potentially developing a national digital asset stockpile.

Venture capitalist David Sacks, who Trump tapped as his crypto and artificial intelligence czar, joined Trump in the Oval Office for the signing of the order.

“The digital asset industry plays a crucial role in innovation and economic development in the United States, as well as our Nation’s international leadership,” the order states.

Trump, who was a crypto critic in his first administration, changed his tune on the campaign trail and attracted hefty contributions from the industry after a tumultuous four years under then-President Joe Biden. Crypto investors, companies and executives accounted for almost half of corporate donations in the 2024 election cycle, with some contributing tens of millions of dollars to help Trump win a second term in office.

Most of the order focuses on establishing technology and rules around crypto and its development in the U.S. One of the critical pieces is the creation of a working group to consider a national digital asset stockpile, “potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government through its law enforcement effort.”

Historically, the U.S. Marshals Service has auctioned off seized bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies such as ether and litecoin. Trump promised on the campaign trail that if he returned to the White House, he would ensure the federal government never sells off its bitcoin holdings, though Thursday’s order does not mention bitcoin.

“If I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, United States of America, to keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future,” he said in July in a keynote at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee.

The order goes on to outline other key priorities for the digital asset industry, including protecting individuals and private sector companies that use blockchain networks from “persecution.” The document spells out certain protections for developers and miners, noting that they should be able to freely “develop and deploy software” as well as “participate in mining and validating,” a nod to the technicians securing the bitcoin network.

The president has also pledged to defend the rights of those who choose to self-custody their digital assets. That means they do not rely on a centralized entity such as Coinbase to hold their tokens and instead use personal crypto wallets, which are sometimes outside the reach of the Internal Revenue Service.

The order emphasizes promoting the sovereignty of the U.S. dollar by supporting the growth of legitimate, dollar-backed stablecoins globally.

Bitcoin surges past $100,000 as Trump reportedly plans to unveil new crypto policies

Since his victory in November, Trump has focused on appointing government leaders who support the cryptocurrency sector.

Paul Atkins has been nominated to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission. Atkins, a former SEC commissioner, is known for advocating market-friendly policies and opposing heavy-handed regulation. If confirmed, he will succeed Gary Gensler, whose aggressive enforcement of crypto regulations made him a divisive figure in the industry.

Earlier this week, the SEC announced the formation of a new “crypto task force,” to be led by Commissioner Hester Peirce. Dubbed “Crypto Mom” for her outspoken support of digital currencies, Peirce has long championed a regulatory framework that fosters innovation rather than hindering it.

Scott Bessent, a pro-crypto hedge fund manager, is Trump’s pick to lead the Treasury Department. Bessent attended the Crypto Ball on Friday in Washington, an event that brought together lawmakers, cabinet appointees and industry leaders and underscored the administration’s plan to make the U.S. a global leader in digital asset innovation.

Sacks told the crowd at the packed Mellon Auditorium on Friday night that “the war on crypto is over.”

“This is just the beginning of America reclaiming its position as the world’s innovation leader,” Sacks said.