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Do you want to believe that New York City is in an urban doom cycle?

Its easy if you just ignore indisputable facts.

Take major crimes, an NYPD metric thats distorted upward by skyrocketing auto theft even as the crimes we fear most murder, shootings, and rape continue to ebb lower from last years totals.

Surprise! Murders are on track to be 40% fewer this year than they were in crime-busting Rudy Giulianis last two years as mayor when they were 673 and 649 respectively.

At the midpoint of 2023, weve had 193 murders, on track for a total of around 400 down from 488 in 2021 and 438 in 2022.

Ah, but there were only 319 murders in 2019!

True, but nobody foresaw the end of the world in 2010 when murders jumped to 536 over 471 in 2009 even though then-Mayor Michael Bloombergs stop-and-frisk was in full force.

As the late, great Yankees skipper Casey Stengel often said, you can look it up.

Misperceptions of crime do have a rational basis, though: an ever-increasing street disorder that might not kill but threatens us in other ways lawless cyclists, open-air drug use, unchecked shoplifting, and raving maniacs who might or might not come at us with knives.

The sense of a city sprung and lurching, beyond the governments will or ability to rein in, creates a mood where actual violent crime may seem more prevalent than it is.

But the supposed inevitability of urban collapse due to remote work another article of faith among New Yorks dark prophets has no visible basis other than suspect computer models. 

Never mind that sidewalks are packed, subway riderships up and apartments are in more demand than ever were doomed!

A recent, endlessly cited paper titled Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse by three learned scholars Arpit Gupta of NYU and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University declared that fewer employees working in offices portend the collapse of property values which in turn portends the collapse of the municipal treasury and, by implication, the end of life on earth as we know it.

The portrayal of a city in its death throes casts a destructive damper on the Big Apple as it continues its fitful recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Dystopian claims take on an aura of unchallengeable truth for those impressed with mathematical equations unintelligible to anyone without a Ph. D.

Who could argue with them?

Well, maybe anybody who ever got a sunburn after a computer model warned of downpours.

The authors are great with numbers but out of touch with Manhattan real-estate reality.

For starters, they rely on Kastle Systems, a security-services provider, to quantify todays supposedly paltry physical office presence a mere 50%, Kastle says. 

But Kastles survey has been widely debunked for its inadequate, worst-case sample.

It covers mostly second-tier office buildings but not the superior buildings owned by the citys 10 largest landlords such as SL Green, Vornado Realty Trust, and Related Companies.

Those so-called Class-A and A-plus properties are the heart of Manhattans half-billion-square-foot office inventory.

Theyre much more than half full because theyre leased to companies that require the most office attendance financial institutions and law firms. 

The Real Estate Board of New York and the Partnership for New York City report considerably higher occupancy than Kastles up to 90% in some premier locations.

But theyd undercut Apocalypse right at the starting gate. 

Sure, commercial landlords are under pressure.

Owners of some older buildings could face bankruptcy.

But even if the overall value of New York City office locations falls 43.9% by 2029 an Apocalypse projection shared by no other analysis would it be the end of the world for the city as a whole?

Maybe it would if there were no actual people involved such as elected officials, landlords, other business leaders, and people just sick of working remotely to arrest the decline. 

Just as Tom Hanks as Capt. Chesley Sullenberger shredded investigators attempt to blame him for the crash computers showed could have been avoided Lets get serious you have not taken into account the human factor so does Apocalypse fall apart the moment whats now called human agency is added. 

Maybe more employees will come back to offices a trend thats gaining traction as bosses read them the riot act.

Landlords might find that they need as much space as before even if employees only come in three or four days a week.

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Maybe owners will find ways to convert more office buildings to other uses than is currently thought possible.

Maybe another Wall Street boom will impel more companies to expand, as private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice just did by doubling its square footage in a move to 550 Madison Ave.

The assumption of shrunken tax revenue is based on the notion that buildings will lose value due to remote work.

But will they?

SL Green just sold a 49% share of 245 Park Ave. to Japans Mori Trust in a deal that values the nearly 60-year-old property at $2 billion.

Thats hardly a catastrophic plunge from the towers last sale price of $2.2 billion in 2017 when the market was at its peak.

Comptroller Brad Lander reported last week to some surprise that office-building values actually increased from 2021 to 2022 to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

He wrote that even if office values were to fall by 40%, it would cost the city no more than $1.1 billion in annual property tax revenue by 2027 a mere 3% of all property tax collections, only 1% of the overall budget and well within the range in which tax revenues can ordinarily vary.

For all its intimidating graphs and equations, Apocalypse works the same sensationalist street as alarmist, headline-grabbing forecasts by credentialed experts that turned out to be bogus.

There was no population bomb that caused global famine as foreseen by Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne Howland Ehrlich in 1968; no Great Depression of 1990 as predicted by best-selling economist Ravi Batra in 1987; and no World War III with Japan as envisioned by geopolitical analysts George Friedman and Meredith LeBard 

Therell be no real estate apocalypse, either. 

Hold the taps for New York City, psychos, and all.

Theres nothing certain about our future, of course.

But one day well look back on the Doom Loop and marvel that it panicked so many of us who are glad to be here and plan to stay.

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Millions face council tax rise of more than 5% after government gives green light to bigger hikes

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Millions face council tax rise of more than 5% after government gives green light to bigger hikes

Millions of people face council tax hikes over normal thresholds after the government allowed six areas to boost rates above the usual 5%.

More than two million people will be hit by increases of between 5 and 10%.

Windsor and Maidenhead Council wanted to increase council tax by 25% but the plan was blocked – instead it will go up by 9%.

Newham Council will go up by the same amount, while Bradford Council will put up taxes by 10% and Birmingham, Somerset and Trafford councils will all put up rates by 7.5%.

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Speaking to Sky News’ Kay Burley, health and social care minister Karin Smyth defended the above normal increases – saying “many more councils” asked for permission to hike taxes, but were refused.

She said the ones given the nod “are particularly desperate” and need the money to keep “basic services running”.

The Labour MP was quick to blame the Conservatives, saying local government was left in a “really, really dark state” by the previous government.

How do councils increase tax?

In order to keep up with demands, councils are allowed to raise council tax usually by up to 5%, broken down into 3% core spending with an additional 2% for social care.

At the moment, a principle exists which prevents more than a 5% increase to council tax without a referendum, mostly to protect taxpayers from excessive increases.

But if a council is already in conversation with government on exceptional financial support, and if the government agrees to allow the council to raise tax above the cap as part of this, the council doesn’t necessarily have to take that to a local public vote.

Deputy prime minister Angela Rayner – who is also the secretary of state for local government – confirmed the move on Monday.

She said the average council tax increase across the country would not surpass last year’s total of 5.1%.

She also said more than £69bn in central funding would be made available to regional administrators, a rise of 6.8% compared to the 2024-25 period. Close to £4bn has also been put aside to help councils with social care.

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The Conservatives accused Labour of “pushing the burden on to taxpayers after they promised to freeze council tax”.

Shadow communities secretary Kevin Hollinrake said: “Their Local Government Finance Settlement will mean that councils will have to raise council tax to accommodate Labour’s jobs tax.

“This means that local people will pay more for less when it comes to local services, especially in rural areas which are losing the Rural Services Delivery Grant that Labour have abolished.

“The Labour Party have made false promises to local people, promising to freeze council tax while many councils will now have to raise it due to Labour’s political choice to raise council tax.”

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The County Councils Network, which represents 37 administrations, said they are facing pressure from the government’s decisions to increase national insurance contributions for employers, and increases to minimum wage.

Barry Lewis, the network’s finance spokesperson said: “More than four in five CCN members say they are in a worse position than before the autumn budget and this finance settlement, and one-third say their service reductions next year will now be severe.

“Considering there is very little fat left to cut from many of these services already, a further reduction will have a material impact on our residents.”

Ms Rayner confirmed allocations worth £502m to assist councils with the impact of increases to employer national insurance contributions.

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China hits back after new US tariffs take effect – as those against Mexico and Canada are paused

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China hits back after new US tariffs take effect - as those against Mexico and Canada are paused

China has retaliated after the US imposed 10% tariffs on its goods.

Not long after the US taxes began at 5am British time, China said it was imposing 10% tariffs on American crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement cars and pickup trucks.

There will also be 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas, as well as an investigation into Google.

China also said it is imposing export controls on rare earth metals such as tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and ruthenium-related items – the country controls much of the world’s supply of such metals, which are critical for the transition to clean energy.

They will not come into effect until Monday 10 February, however.

President Trump said his actions were in response to what he described as Beijing’s failure to stop the flow of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, into the US.

Mr Trump added that the tariffs on China could just be the start, though the White House said he was due to talk to President Xi Jinping.

“China hopefully is going to stop sending us fentanyl, and if they’re not, the tariffs are going to go substantially higher,” Mr Trump said.

China has described fentanyl as America’s problem and said it would challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organisation, as well as taking other countermeasures.

But it also left the door open for talks.

The issue of fentanyl is only one part of Mr Trump’s issue with China. He has long railed against the trade imbalance between the first and second-largest economies in the world.

Tariffs paused

Earlier, the imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada was paused after agreements were reached on border security.

Mexico was first to make a deal with the White House. Its president, Claudia Sheinbaum, said she was sending 10,000 National Guard troops to the US border immediately in return for a tariff delay.

Mr Trump said the Mexican soldiers would be “specifically designated” to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US, as well as illegal migrants. Further negotiations will now be carried out, he added.

Ms Sheinbaum said she had a “good conversation” with him lasting at least 30 minutes just hours before the tariffs were due to begin.

She also extracted a concession from Mr Trump – after explaining the “seriousness” of high-powered weapons coming over the border from the US and getting into the hands of criminal groups.

“It gives them firepower,” she said. “We asked that the US also help our country by helping stop this arms trafficking… he agreed.”

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Canada made similar moves. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said almost 10,000 frontline personnel “are and will be working on protecting the border”.

He added on X that his country was appointing a “fentanyl czar”, drug cartels would be listed as terrorists, and there would be “24/7 eyes on the border”.

There will also be a Canada-US joint strike force to “combat organised crime, fentanyl and money laundering”, Mr Trudeau announced.

Both Mr Trudeau and Mr Trump will view the deal as a win – Mr Trump for seemingly forcing the US’s northern neighbour to act, and Mr Trudeau for heading off sanctions with measures that for the most part (with the exception of the fentanyl czar) had already been announced in December.

Mr Trump said he was “very pleased with this initial outcome” and work will begin to see how a “Final Economic Deal” with Canada can be structured.

Tariffs are designed to show China’s mettle

Nicole Johnston

Asia correspondent

@nicole_reporter

China has made it clear it’s not taking Donald Trump’s 10% tariff lying down.

Despite the country still being on its New Year’s spring break, China has announced retaliatory measures.

Its tariffs of 10-15% hit exports of US coal, liquified natural gas (LNG), agricultural machinery and pick-up trucks to China.

However, these tariffs would not take effect until 10 February, giving Mr Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping time to possibly hammer out a deal.

Canada and Mexico have been given a 30-day reprieve from the threatened 25% US tariffs.

China may be hoping it can also avert the start of a trade war by engaging in direct talks.

It’s believed Mr Trump and Mr Xi will speak on the phone in the coming days.

Chinese countermeasures extend beyond just tariffs though.

They have also restricted a handful of critical minerals like tungsten, launched an antitrust investigation into Google and sanctioned two US companies.

The Chinese government is strengthening its language against the US and its tariffs.

It is still open to negotiation in the spirit of the phase one US-China trade deal during Mr Trump’s first term, but it has a domestic audience to consider.

Beijing insists it is a peer competitor to the US and its rival on the world stage. These tariffs are designed to show China’s mettle.

What is the UK situation on tariffs?

President Trump hates trade deficits, and does not want to import more goods from another country than are sent there in return, says Sky’s economics and data editor, Ed Conway.

But Britain has bigger trade deficits than the US, Conway adds, and is one of the few countries in the world to import more goods from America than America imports from it.

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In addition, because the UK is no longer part of the European Union, any tariffs imposed on Brussels will not affect London.

When asked about the UK, Mr Trump said: “I think that one can be worked out.”

Sir Keir Starmer said it was “early days”.

Analysis: Has it all just been theatre?

First Mexico, now Canada. In another whirlwind day, both of America’s closest neighbours appear to have capitulated to President Trump.
The 25% tariffs on all goods from both countries were due to come into effect at midnight US Eastern time. But after calls between all three leaders, suddenly the tariffs were paused.

So what’s going on? Is this a clear signal of the power Trump wields? His blunt tool of using the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tool has paid off? Bullying tactics work? Well, maybe. At least that’s how Mr Trump wants everyone to think. Dance to my tune, or else.

And it’s absolutely the case that Mexico and Canada were in panic mode this weekend. But surely Donald Trump was panicking a little too when he saw the stock markets on Monday. He claimed this afternoon not to be taking any notice of their sharp falls. But we know he cares deeply about market reactions.

Here’s what’s interesting: the statement from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sounded at first glance like it was announcing something new.
“Canada is implementing our $1.3bn border plan… nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting the border…”

But it’s not a new announcement. Look at the language – “are and will be”. In other words, “we’re doing this already Mr President, but if you want me to reiterate it to placate you, then I will…” All that Justin Trudeau has done today is reiterate a border plan he announced last December.

Mexico too has been doing an increasing amount in the fight against fentanyl though it could and probably now will do more.

So has it all been theatre this past 24 hours?

A show of brinkmanship from Donald Trump, which could have had a cliff-edge ending, but instead ended with him looking strong (and freaking out much of the developed world in the process) and his closest neighbours forced to reiterate their existing plans.

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Trump tariffs: How the UK finds itself in a strong position on US trade

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Trump tariffs: How the UK finds itself in a strong position on US trade

What if Britain has, almost entirely by accident, navigated itself into about the best possible position it could be in, as Donald Trump embarks on a trade war with nearly all his economic partners?

I realise this might, at first, sound a little odd. After all, when the world is facing economically-destructive measures (blanket tariffs are invariably value-destructive, in the short run at least) it’s hard to see much in the way of victories. Moreover, when it comes to Donald Trump, no one, including his own cabinet and staff, can quite predict what will happen next. Consider the roller-coaster over tariffs in the past few days alone.

Even so, the fact remains that of all the countries and regions in the world, Britain seems much less likely than most to face the kind of peremptory tariffs the president is so keen on.

Trade war latest: Trump pauses Mexico tariffs for a month

To see why, it helps to remember that the one thing Mr Trump hates above all else is trade deficits – when you import more goods (and it seems to be goods he mostly cares about) from another country than you send there in return.

America has an enormous trade deficit with China and with Mexico too, not to mention a smaller but not insubstantial deficit with Canada. When the president talks about the reasons for his tariffs he sometimes mentions illegal fentanyl imports, but, even more often, he references the size of the trade deficits. He wants America to make more stuff domestically and suck in less stuff from overseas.

We could have a long conversation (and I suspect we probably will have a long conversation in the coming months) about the extent to which deficits are, per se, a bad thing. But in the short run let’s focus on the UK and its strengths in this game.

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First, since the UK is no longer part of the European Union, it will not automatically face the same trade terms as its neighbours on the continent. If the US imposes tariffs on the EU, Britain will not necessarily face them.

Second, if there is one country in the world with even bigger trade deficits than the US, it’s Britain. This country has deindustrialised even quicker than America, with the upshot that unlike the EU or Canada or Mexico, Britain is one of the few countries in the world to import more goods from America than America imports from it.

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How will Trump’s tariffs affect Brits?

Footnote: that last point actually depends on whose numbers you’re looking at. Look at America’s figures and it has a trade surplus with the UK. Look at Britain’s figures and America has a trade deficit with us. But either way, both are very small. The numbers are essentially balanced.

Third, in recent months, the new Labour government has begun to improve its relationship with China. Chancellor Rachel Reeves went on a financial diplomacy mission to Beijing last month. And unlike nearly every other industrialised country in the developed world, Britain has not imposed tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

Many diplomats have raised their eyebrows about this, but in the event that America wanted to do a deal with Britain, this is precisely the kind of thing the government could quickly reverse: “Oh alright then – in return for this trade deal, we’re willing to impose those tariffs on China – the ones everyone else has already introduced.”

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The funny thing about these three strengths is that, first off, up until recently many would have seen each of them – Brexit, our deindustrialisation and our cosying up to China – as weaknesses rather than strengths. They certainly weren’t part of any grand strategic plan.

Even so, the UK nonetheless finds itself in an unexpectedly propitious position when it comes to negotiating with the US. It has a better chance than most nations to act as a diplomatic bridge between America and Europe. Its chances of sealing that much-vaunted trade deal with the US have improved rather than deteriorated. Indeed, I’m told that leading members of the administration believe a trade deal with the UK could be sealed in a matter of months.

Whether that actually eventuates remains to be seen. After all, if there’s one thing you can’t predict when it comes to Donald Trump it’s, well, anything.

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