Ukraine war is at a critical moment – and Zelenskyy needs some good news
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Ukrainian military forces have proven incredibly resilient against what should – at least on paper – have been a superior Russian force.
But one month on from the start of a much-anticipated “spring” counteroffensive, there has been limited positive news from Kyiv, plenty of Russian reporting of significant enemy losses, and no evidence of a breakthrough.
Zelenskyy marks 500 days of war – live updates
With both sides embroiled in a highly attritional phase of the war, is Ukraine facing the brutal reality they do not have the resources to overcome established Russian defences, or is patience a vital component of its strategy?
Military offensives usually require detailed planning, but success is usually achieved by seizing the initiative, exploiting fleeting opportunities to capitalise on enemy weakness or misjudgement, and gaining momentum before the enemy has the chance to consolidate.
However, Ukraine is heavily dependent on the West for weapons and ammunition. Mr Zelenskyy needed advanced weaponry from the West to support the Ukrainian counteroffensive – such as modern tanks, long-range precision strike and air defence capability.
But it took time for this equipment to arrive, and for crucial operational training to be completed.
Zelenskyy created ‘air of expectation’
Unlike in the northeast of Ukraine (Kharkiv) where a surprise offensive last September reclaimed around 12,000 square kilometres of previously Russian-occupied territory in a very short period, on this occasion Russia has had months of advance notice to prepare its defences.
Mr Zelenskyy has – perhaps inadvertently – created an “air of expectation” in the West of a swift and decisive victory.
Russia has established hundreds of kilometres of layered defences, including anti-tank ditches, “dragon’s teeth” defensive barricades, and mines.
These are all surmountable, but creating clear corridors through minefields simply funnels attacking forces into predictable channels, which can have deadly consequences. As chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff General Mark Milley advised, the Ukrainian offensive will be “slow, and it will be bloody”.
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Ukraine must avoid war of attrition
In the battle for Bakhmut, Russian forces on offence were suffering up to 10 times the casualties of the Ukrainian defenders. But even with Western support, in this initial phase of the counteroffensive Ukraine will expect to suffer three times the casualties of the Russian forces. This will present a huge challenge to Ukrainian morale.
And, Ukraine must avoid an enduring war of attrition that will – eventually – favour the larger Russian force.
Meanwhile, the enemy also “has a vote”, as former US defence secretary James Mattis likes to say, and Russia will not sit back and let Ukraine seize the initiative.
Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” remains focused on the Donbas, and there are reports suggesting thousands of Russian forces are massing ready for an attack in the Kreminna area.
This would be a vital steppingstone for Russia to seizing the Donbas, and would create a conundrum for Ukraine: divert forces to protect the Donbas, or capitalise on Russia’s dilution of its defensive capability in the south.
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The counteroffensive is a critical moment for Ukraine. Western support is not unlimited, there are limited supplies of high-tech weapons available, and domestic pressures on Western governments have not abated.
Ukraine needs to find a way to break through the Russian minefields, and fast. Cluster munitions could be the ideal solution – the US has large stockpiles, and they do not require time-consuming training.
However, cluster munitions are banned by 120 countries (including the UK). As some of them don’t detonate on impact, they leave large quantities of unexploded bombs, which present a major threat to civilians.
Over 98% of the injuries caused by cluster munitions are to civilian populations in the decades after their use.
However, neither the US nor Ukraine are signatories to the ban, and Ukraine desperately needs help.
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Inside camp in Belarus offered to Wagner group
Further, the outcome of the US presidential elections next year might also impact Western support for Ukraine, so Mr Zelenskyy will know this year’s counteroffensive could be crucial to the outcome of the war.
Ukrainian success will probably be defined by territory liberated rather than Russian forces destroyed, but Ukraine has yet to achieve momentum, and risks losing the initiative.
Only Mr Zelenskyy and his leadership team will know if their strategy is working, and patience may yet prove a virtue. Ukraine has yet to commit the bulk of its forces. If and when a breakthrough is achieved, it could prove decisive.
But Ukraine faces a huge challenge, and success is not a foregone conclusion.
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
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What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
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Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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