Monday will mark the sixth meeting between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden – and their seventh encounter in all as both were at official functions for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II last September during the Liz Truss interregnum.
No joint press conference or major public statement is planned with either the prime minister or the King.
Perhaps this is just as well since Biden has struggled with Sunak’s name in the past and called him “Mr President” the last time they met.
The two administrations issued unsurprising statements in advance of the Sunak-Biden date.
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Number 10 said it “reflects the strong relationship between the US and the UK”.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre explained the president is coming to London “to further strengthen the close relationship between our two nations”.
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What seems to irk some British political leaders is that the US is treating the UK as it treats its other major allies in Europe. They don’t feel anything “special” about it.
For all the neurotic energy with which those involved in British politics scrutinise transatlantic relations, there is little special about Biden’s visit here.
Image: Mr Sunak and Mr Biden in the Oval Office last month
Nordic natter
The US president usually slots in some bi-lateral business alongside his presence at multi-national conferences and celebrations.
The main item on Biden’s five-day European swing is the Ukraine-urgent NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Sunak is missing PMQs for a second week running to be there too.
Biden’s last stop before flying home on Thursday will be Helsinki, Finland, for a “US-Nordic leaders summit”.
Finland recently abandoned neutrality to join NATO. Sweden is trying to do the same but is being blocked by Turkey. Both countries have long land borders with Russia.
At their meeting in Washington DC in advance of the summits, Biden told the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson that he “is anxiously looking forward to your membership”.
With some support from his fellow strongman leader Viktor Orban of Hungary, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is vetoing Sweden’s bid, claiming the country is a haven for Kurdish separatists.
Image: Ursula von der Leyen is the favourite to take over as NATO’s new leader
Underlining its continuing role as the dominant force in European geopolitics, the US is the only country with significant leverage over Erdogan.
Biden will authorise the supply of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in exchange for a green light to Sweden. The US Congress is insisting Turkey must blink first.
Sweden will rank with Ukraine as the most vital issue on the agenda in Vilnius, although chances of an immediate breakthrough are being played down.
F-16 diplomacy may also have played a part in Biden’s reluctance to back Wallace for NATO, in spite of appeals from Sunak at their bilateral meeting in the White House last month.
Wallace has been consistently in the lead advocating military support for Ukraine.
The US has been more cautious, even though in material terms it continues to be by far the largest supplier of assistance.
UK forces are not equipped with American-made F-16s.
Historically, most notably in two world wars, the UK has often found itself asking the US to commit more to a conflict.
The UK has secured the leadership of NATO when the two countries have been most closely in sync. The first secretary general, Lord Hastings Ismay, was Winston Churchill’s military adviser during the Second World War.
In 1984, former foreign secretary Peter Carrington secured the post at the height of the mutual admiration between Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.
Tony Blair had similarly close relations with Bill Clinton when George Robertson took over in 1999, even though the prime minister had successfully leant on the president to send forces to the Balkans.
Now is not such a time.
American disappointment
NATO was set up as a defensive alliance during the period of reconstruction following the Second World War. It currently has 31 member nations.
By convention an American holds the top military post of SACEUR – Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
A European is NATO secretary general, the organisations civilian leader and chief diplomat – subject to American agreement.
With three British secretary generals so far, the UK is already in joint first place with the Netherlands.
Belgium and Italy have had two successful nominations.
Germany, Spain, Denmark and Norway have had one each. All 15 secretary generals have been men.
The pattern of diplomatic traffic was interrupted by the COVID pandemic.
Britain also had to deal with the consequences of leaving the EU: both the perception that it was no longer a reliable ally and America’s disappointment that the UK could no longer be its “bridge” into Europe.
The maverick styles of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss caused further dislocation. Sunak has restored normality successfully and the US has responded.
He said he went to Belfast “to make sure the Brits didn’t screw around”.
The president gave Sunak full credit for the Windsor Framework. There is no evidence that “Irish” Joe Biden held Ben Wallace’s tours of duty as an Army Officer during the Troubles in Northern Ireland against him.
Biden aside, Wallace has been telling friends for months that current international relations made it most unlikely that he or any other British citizen would get the NATO job this time.
Ms von der Leyen is not yet an official candidate but she fits the bill.
The one year extension given to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg means that her first term in Brussels will be coming to an end just as the NATO vacancy arises.
At just under six years, she was the longest serving German defence minister this century, although some have derided her performance.
She is medically qualified and has seven children. Fluent in French, German and English she has built strong working relationships with leaders including Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron.
There has never been a French secretary general because France has opted in and out of NATO’s central command.
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3:07
Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby asked Joe Biden if the special relationship between the UK and US is still in good shape
Ukraine has changed Macron’s view that NATO was “brain dead”. Now he is insisting that the next secretary general must come from an EU member state, as has been the case until now.
By the end of next week it should be clear whether Ms von der Leyen is the runaway frontrunner for NATO or whether she wants a second term leading the European Commission.
A shift in the balance of power in next year’s European Parliament election could call that option into question.
When NATO leaders meet for their celebratory 75th Anniversary Summit in Washington DC over a year from now the war in Ukraine will be in a completely different place from where it is today.
Sweden may have become a NATO member by then. Europe may even be having to make its own plans for a potential second Donald Trump presidency, as Biden and Sunak face difficult elections.
Whatever job she goes for, Ms von der Leyen’s political future will look a lot more certain than theirs.
Looking towards 2024 there is little need to get over-excited about Sunak meeting Biden, again on Monday.
It’s a year since the US put Donald Trump back in the White House and I’ve spent this anniversary week in Florida and in Pennsylvania – two worlds in one country where I found two such contrasting snapshots of Trump’s America.
There are many ways to reflect on the successes and failures of the past year. Different issues matter to different people. But the thing which matters to all Americans is money.
The cost of living was a key factor in Donald Trump’s victory. He promised to make the country more affordable again. So: how’s he done?
On Wednesday, exactly a year since Americans went to the polls, the president was in Miami. He had picked this city and a particular crowd for his anniversary speech.
I was in the audience at the America Business Forum as he told wealthy entrepreneurs and investors how great life is now.
“One year ago we were a dead country, now we’re considered the hottest country in the world.” he told them to cheers. “Record high, record high, record high…”
The vibe was glitzy and wealthy. These days, these are his voters; his crowd.
“After just one year since that glorious election, I’m thrilled to say that America is back, America is back bigger, better, stronger than ever.” he said.
“We’ve done really well. I think it’s the best nine months, they say, of any president. And I really believe that if we can have a few more nine months like this, you’d be very happy. You’d be very satisfied.”
There was little question here that people are happy.
Image: Liz Ciborowski says Trump has been good for the economy
“Trump’s been a good thing?” I asked one attendee, Liz Ciborowski.
“Yes. He has really pushed for a lot of issues that are really important for our economy,” she said.
“I’m an investor,” said another, Andrea.
“I’m a happy girl. I’m doing good,” she said with a laugh.
Image: Andrea says she’s happy with how the economy is faring
A year on from his historic victory, the president was, notably, not with the grassroots folk in the places that propelled him back to the White House.
He had chosen to be among business leaders in Miami. Safe crowd, safe state, safe space.
But there was just one hint in his speech which seemed to acknowledge the reality that should be a concern for him.
“We have the greatest economy right now,” he said, adding: “A lot of people don’t see that.”
That is the crux of it: many people beyond the fortunate here don’t feel the “greatest economy” he talks about. And many of those people are in the places that delivered Trump his victory.
That’s the untold story of the past year.
A thousand miles to the north of Miami is another America – another world.
Steelton, Pennsylvania sits in one of Donald Trump’s heartlands. But it is not feeling the beat of his greatest economy. Not at all.
At the local steel union, I was invited to attend a meeting of a group of steel workers. It was an intimate glimpse into a hard, life-changing moment for the men.
The steel plant is shutting down and they were listening to their union representative explaining what happens next.
Image: David Myers used to be employed at the steelworks
The conversation was punctuated with all the words no one wants to hear: laid off, severance, redundancy.
“For over 100 years, my family has been here working. And I was planning on possibly one day having my son join me, but I don’t know if that’s a possibility now,” former employee David Myers tells me.
“And…” he pauses. “Sorry I’m getting a little emotional about it. We’ve been supplying America with railroad tracks for over a century and a half, and it feels weird for it to be coming to an end.”
Cleveland Cliffs Steelton plant is closing because of weakening demand, according to its owners. Their stock price has since surged. Good news for the Miami crowd, probably. It is the irony between the two Americas.
Down at the shuttered plant, it’s empty, eerie and depressing. It is certainly not the image or the vision that Donald Trump imagined for his America.
Pennsylvania, remember, was key to propelling Trump back to the White House. In this swing state, they swung to his promises – factories reopened and life more affordable.
Up the road, conversations outside the town’s government-subsidised homes frame the challenges here so starkly.
“How much help does the community need?” I asked a man running the local food bank.
Image: Elder Melvin Watts is a community organiser
“As much as they can get. I mean, help is a four-letter word but it has a big meaning. So help!” community organiser Elder Melvin Watts said.
I asked if he thought things were worse than a year ago.
“Yes sir. I believe they needed it then and they need it that much more now. You know it’s not hard to figure that out. The cost of living is high.”
Nearby, I met a woman called Sandra.
Image: Sandra says it’s getting harder to make ends meet
“It’s been harder, and I’m a hard-working woman.” she told me. “I don’t get no food stamps, I don’t get none of that. You’ve got to take care of them bills, eat a little bit or don’t have the lights on. Then you have people like Mr Melvin, he’s been out here for years, serving the community.”
Inside Mr Melvin’s food bank, a moment then unfolded that cut to the heart of the need here.
A woman called Geraldine Santiago arrived, distressed, emotional and then overwhelmed by the boxes of food available to her.
“We’ll help you…” Mr Melvin said as she sobbed.
Image: Geraldine’s welfare has been affected by the shutdown
Geraldine is one of 40 million Americans now not receiving the full nutritional assistance programme, known as SNAP, and usually provided by the federal government.
SNAP benefits have stopped because the government remains shut down amid political deadlock.
I watched Geraldine’s rollercoaster emotions spilling out – from desperation to gratitude at this moment of respite. She left with a car boot full of food.
A year on from his victory, Donald Trump continues to frame himself as the “America First” president and now with an economy transformed. But parts of America feel far, far away.
Pirates firing machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades have boarded a tanker off the coast of Somalia.
Greek shipping company Latsco Marine Management confirmed its vessel, Hellas Aphrodite, had been attacked in the early hours of Thursday.
The tanker, which was carrying fuel, was en route from India to South Africa when a “security incident” took place, the firm said.
“All 24 crew are safe and accounted for and we remain in close contact with them,” it added in a statement.
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The crew members took shelter in the ship’s “citadel”, or fortified safe room, and remain there, an official from maritime security company Diaplous said.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency issued an alert to warn ships in the area.
It located the vessel 560 nautical miles southeast of Eyl, Somalia, in the Indian Ocean. Eyl became famous in the mid-2000s as the centre of a string of piracy attacks.
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“The Master of a vessel has reported being approached by one small craft on its stern. The small craft fired small arms and RPGs [rocket-propelled grenades] towards the vessel,” UKMTO said in a statement.
EU forces move in on tanker
The European Union’s Operation Atalanta, a counter-piracy mission around the Horn of Africa, said one of its assets was “close to the incident” and “ready to take the appropriate actions”.
That EU force has responded to other recent pirate attacks in the area and had issued a recent alert that a pirate group was operating off Somalia and assaults were “almost certain” to happen.
Private security firm Ambrey has claimed that Somali pirates were operating from an Iranian fishing boat they had seized and had opened fire on the tanker.
Thursday’s attack comes after another vessel, the Cayman Islands-flagged Stolt Sagaland, found itself targeted in a suspected pirate attack that included both its armed security force and the attackers shooting at each other, the EU force said.
The vessel’s operator Stolt-Nielsen confirmed there was an attempted attack, early on 3 November, which was unsuccessful.
Somali pirate gangs have been relatively inactive in recent years. In May 2024, suspected pirates boarded the Liberian-flagged vessel Basilisk. EU naval forces later rescued the 17 crew members.
Meanwhile, the last hijacking took place in December 2023, when the Maltese-flagged Ruen was taken by assailants to the Somali coast before Indian naval forces freed the crew and arrested the attackers.
Hellas Aphrodite was en route from Sikka, India, to Durban, South Africa.
The Malta-flagged tanker is described as an oil/chemical tanker, 183m long and 32m wide, which was built in 2016, according to vesselfinder.com.