Adam Boulton: Why Sunak and Biden are struggling to keep spark of special relationship alive
Monday will mark the sixth meeting between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden – and their seventh encounter in all as both were at official functions for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II last September during the Liz Truss interregnum.
The president did not attend the King’s Coronation – that is normal practice. None of his predecessors did either.
Yet, in this heavily scrutinised social media age, he is anxious to pay his respects to King Charles III, head of state to head of state.
His visit to Windsor Castle on Monday will be the highlight of his brief stay in the UK.
No joint press conference or major public statement is planned with either the prime minister or the King.
Perhaps this is just as well since Biden has struggled with Sunak’s name in the past and called him “Mr President” the last time they met.
The two administrations issued unsurprising statements in advance of the Sunak-Biden date.
Number 10 said it “reflects the strong relationship between the US and the UK”.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre explained the president is coming to London “to further strengthen the close relationship between our two nations”.
What seems to irk some British political leaders is that the US is treating the UK as it treats its other major allies in Europe. They don’t feel anything “special” about it.
In the last few days the former cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has been muttering about “the decayed state of the special relationship” after the failed candidacy of Defence Secretary Ben Wallace to be the next secretary general of NATO and the emergence of the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the favourite.
For all the neurotic energy with which those involved in British politics scrutinise transatlantic relations, there is little special about Biden’s visit here.
Mr Sunak and Mr Biden in the Oval Office last month
Nordic natter
The US president usually slots in some bi-lateral business alongside his presence at multi-national conferences and celebrations.
The main item on Biden’s five-day European swing is the Ukraine-urgent NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Sunak is missing PMQs for a second week running to be there too.
Biden’s last stop before flying home on Thursday will be Helsinki, Finland, for a “US-Nordic leaders summit”.
Finland recently abandoned neutrality to join NATO. Sweden is trying to do the same but is being blocked by Turkey. Both countries have long land borders with Russia.
At their meeting in Washington DC in advance of the summits, Biden told the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson that he “is anxiously looking forward to your membership”.
With some support from his fellow strongman leader Viktor Orban of Hungary, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is vetoing Sweden’s bid, claiming the country is a haven for Kurdish separatists.
Ursula von der Leyen is the favourite to take over as NATO’s new leader
Underlining its continuing role as the dominant force in European geopolitics, the US is the only country with significant leverage over Erdogan.
Biden will authorise the supply of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in exchange for a green light to Sweden. The US Congress is insisting Turkey must blink first.
Sweden will rank with Ukraine as the most vital issue on the agenda in Vilnius, although chances of an immediate breakthrough are being played down.
F-16 diplomacy may also have played a part in Biden’s reluctance to back Wallace for NATO, in spite of appeals from Sunak at their bilateral meeting in the White House last month.
Wallace has been consistently in the lead advocating military support for Ukraine.
The US has been more cautious, even though in material terms it continues to be by far the largest supplier of assistance.
UK forces are not equipped with American-made F-16s.
Wallace still got ahead of US policy when he urged countries which have the fighters to supply them to the Ukrainian war effort and proposed setting up F-16 training programmes for Ukrainian pilots in this country.
Historically, most notably in two world wars, the UK has often found itself asking the US to commit more to a conflict.
The UK has secured the leadership of NATO when the two countries have been most closely in sync. The first secretary general, Lord Hastings Ismay, was Winston Churchill’s military adviser during the Second World War.
In 1984, former foreign secretary Peter Carrington secured the post at the height of the mutual admiration between Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.
Tony Blair had similarly close relations with Bill Clinton when George Robertson took over in 1999, even though the prime minister had successfully leant on the president to send forces to the Balkans.
Now is not such a time.
American disappointment
NATO was set up as a defensive alliance during the period of reconstruction following the Second World War. It currently has 31 member nations.
By convention an American holds the top military post of SACEUR – Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
A European is NATO secretary general, the organisations civilian leader and chief diplomat – subject to American agreement.
With three British secretary generals so far, the UK is already in joint first place with the Netherlands.
Belgium and Italy have had two successful nominations.
Germany, Spain, Denmark and Norway have had one each. All 15 secretary generals have been men.
The pattern of diplomatic traffic was interrupted by the COVID pandemic.
Britain also had to deal with the consequences of leaving the EU: both the perception that it was no longer a reliable ally and America’s disappointment that the UK could no longer be its “bridge” into Europe.
The maverick styles of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss caused further dislocation. Sunak has restored normality successfully and the US has responded.
Sunak met the president when they both took part in meetings of the G20, G7 and the trilateral AUKUS defence summit in California.
Biden also attended events of special importance here such as Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral and the 25th Anniversary of the Good Friday agreement.
He said he went to Belfast “to make sure the Brits didn’t screw around”.
The president gave Sunak full credit for the Windsor Framework. There is no evidence that “Irish” Joe Biden held Ben Wallace’s tours of duty as an Army Officer during the Troubles in Northern Ireland against him.
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NATO vacancy
Biden aside, Wallace has been telling friends for months that current international relations made it most unlikely that he or any other British citizen would get the NATO job this time.
Ms von der Leyen is not yet an official candidate but she fits the bill.
The one year extension given to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg means that her first term in Brussels will be coming to an end just as the NATO vacancy arises.
At just under six years, she was the longest serving German defence minister this century, although some have derided her performance.
She is medically qualified and has seven children. Fluent in French, German and English she has built strong working relationships with leaders including Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron.
There has never been a French secretary general because France has opted in and out of NATO’s central command.
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Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby asked Joe Biden if the special relationship between the UK and US is still in good shape
Ukraine has changed Macron’s view that NATO was “brain dead”. Now he is insisting that the next secretary general must come from an EU member state, as has been the case until now.
By the end of next week it should be clear whether Ms von der Leyen is the runaway frontrunner for NATO or whether she wants a second term leading the European Commission.
A shift in the balance of power in next year’s European Parliament election could call that option into question.
When NATO leaders meet for their celebratory 75th Anniversary Summit in Washington DC over a year from now the war in Ukraine will be in a completely different place from where it is today.
Sweden may have become a NATO member by then. Europe may even be having to make its own plans for a potential second Donald Trump presidency, as Biden and Sunak face difficult elections.
Whatever job she goes for, Ms von der Leyen’s political future will look a lot more certain than theirs.
Looking towards 2024 there is little need to get over-excited about Sunak meeting Biden, again on Monday.
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Read more:
What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
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Pic: AP
Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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