Despite major lobbying by Kyiv, speedy accession to NATO is very unlikely
A giant poster on the road into the host city of this week’s NATO summit in Lithuania reads: “Ukraine deserves NATO membership now.”
That is what Kyiv would like to see, though it is not going to happen as long as Ukraine is in a fierce war with Russia.
Even after the fighting stops, a speedy accession to the transatlantic club is very unlikely, despite such a pathway being the strong desire of Vilnius and its fellow Baltic state capitals.
Yet the question about how close to hold Ukraine will dominate the two-day gathering of NATO leaders, including US President Joe Biden, the UK’s Rishi Sunak and President Emmanuel Macron of France, in the Lithuanian capital.
A top US diplomat told Sky News that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who will also attend, will be “relieved” when he hears what the allies have to offer on membership.
The poster in Vilnius
“I think he will feel relieved to see the unity that the alliance is showcasing in this moment and the full package of concrete deliverables that the alliance is prepared to offer,” Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to NATO, said in an interview.
But a Ukrainian military source said there was already a sense of “big disappointment”.
“We understand that we can’t change a lot but feel ourselves betrayed as a nation,” the source said.
“NATO was created to deter Russia. Now Ukraine, with support of NATO, is deterring and weakening Russia. Ukraine is now conducting Article 5 by itself to protect Poland and the Baltic states.”
The source was referring to the founding Article 5 principle of the alliance that an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all and requires a collective response. Any nation, like Ukraine, that is not a member is not afforded this protection.
The overtures to Ukraine are expected to take two, separate forms.
Firstly, there will be a commitment by allies in a final communique at the end of the summit to some kind of route for NATO membership that goes further than a general pledge made in 2008 that the door to joining the alliance was open.
US President Joe Biden arrives in Vilnius
As part of this, allies are expected to ditch a requirement for Ukraine to complete a process known as a membership action plan that involves lengthy political and military reforms.
They will also convene the first meeting of a NATO-Ukraine Council, a new arrangement designed to let Kyiv deal with allies on a more equal footing.
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All this falls well short of a clear invitation to join the club that Ukraine had been seeking.
But NATO is an alliance that works by consensus so can only ever move at the pace of the most reluctant – as demonstrated most recently by Turkey’s behaviour over a historic bid by Sweden to become a member state.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan only lifted his veto on Swedish membership on the eve of the summit, despite a large majority of allies backing Stockholm’s bid. Even then Ankara has yet to set a firm date for when the Turkish parliament will ratify the accession agreement.
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Zelenskyy will be ‘relieved’ after Lithuania summit, says US ambassador to NATO.
Hungary too has yet to rubber stamp Sweden’s joining papers.
It means Stockholm is still outside the club and Swedish membership is far less controversial than inviting a country that is locked in a war of survival with Russia to join NATO.
The Swedish experience is a clear signal that Ukrainian membership – while agreed in principle by all allies – is not likely to happen quickly.
That is why the second step that might emerge in Vilnius is so important.
Individual member states led by the US, UK, France and Germany – rather than NATO as a collective – are finalising a framework agreement that will set out a series of long-term security guarantees that they will grant Ukraine short of speedy NATO membership.
These guarantees, such as enduring commitment to provide weapons, intelligence and other security assistance, will provide long-term support to Ukraine in its war and an element of deterrence from future attacks once the fighting stops.
It is a kind of buffer while Kyiv navigates a path to full membership to NATO.
Included on the table is the option of the kind of “Israel-style” security assurances that the United States provides to the Israeli government. This was first raised by Mr Biden in an interview with CNN at the weekend.
It is not clear whether the allies involved in this initiative – which is separate but complementary to the NATO discussions – will reach an agreement before the summit concludes but Vilnius would provide a timely backdrop to offset Ukrainian disappointment over its NATO aspirations.
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
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What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
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Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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