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The pace of wage growth, already described as “unsustainable” by the governor of the Bank of England, has risen further, according to shock official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, hit an annual growth rate of 7.3% during the three months to May.

That matched the highest level on record.

Economists had widely expected the figure to decline from the 7.2% initially recorded last month.

However, that rate was revised up to 7.3% by the ONS on Tuesday.

The wage figure was the most eagerly anticipated piece of data in the ONS report, which also showed vacancies falling to a 2021 low and a climb in the unemployment rate to 4% from 3.8% – factors the bank would perversely welcome.

The bank, as part of its efforts to get inflation down, wants to see evidence demand in the economy is falling before pausing its cycle of interest rate hikes.

Governor Andrew Bailey hinted last night that further rate pain lay ahead despite forecasting that energy-led inflation would fall “markedly” in the months ahead.

He argues that high pay awards, while easing the squeeze on households during the cost of living crisis, only feed price growth further down the line.

Wage growth was driven in April by the rise in statutory minimum wage levels and the start of the new financial year which typically sees many pay reviews kick in.

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Higher grocery wages a drag on food inflation

The fact that salary increases have failed to decline will be a worry for policymakers.

The bank had imposed a shock 0.5 percentage point rate rise last month, taking bank rate to 5%, in reaction to the wage spike and wider evidence that higher prices were becoming engrained in the economy.

Separate figures released on Tuesday by the British Retail Consortium, showing a slight pick-up in the rate of sales growth during June but an easing in food inflation for a second month, will do nothing to convince the bank that it has gone far enough.

By making borrowing more expensive, it hopes that the pace of price growth will come back to more normal levels.

The bank has an inflation target of 2%. The consumer prices index measure of inflation currently stands at 8.7%.

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June: ‘Current wage rises unsustainable’

A majority of financial market participants currently expect a further 0.5 percentage point rate increase at the monetary policy committee’s next meeting early next month.

ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan said of its data: “Total employment grew in the latest three months while the number of people actively looking for work also increased, both driven by men rejoining the labour market.

“While the total number of vacancies remain high, it has now been falling for a year and the pace of decline has accelerated recently.

“Pay excluding bonuses has again risen at record levels in cash terms. Due to high inflation, however, the real value of weekly earnings are still falling, although now at its slowest rate since the end of 2021.

“The number of working days lost to strikes fell back to their lowest level in nearly a year, with a notable drop in public sector disruption.”

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said there was widespread evidence that companies were finding recruitment easier and that should help bring the pace of wage growth down sharply next year.

“For now, wages still are rising too quickly for the MPC to tolerate on an ongoing basis”, he wrote.

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Trump agrees further tariff concessions but April threat remains

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Trump agrees further tariff concessions but April threat remains

Donald Trump has announced that most goods imported from Mexico are to be exempt from his trade tariff regime for at least four weeks, just days after the charges were imposed.

He confirmed the move following a phone call with his Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum and, according to his commerce secretary, was due to announce a similar concession to Canada later in the day.

“We are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl,” Mr Trump posted on Truth Social.

The latest climbdown by the US president came after he surprised financial markets on Wednesday by waiving tariffs against carmakers following pleas from motor industry bosses.

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The White House revealed then that parts due to flow into the US from Mexico and Canada as part of the manufacturing supply chain would not qualify for tariffs so long as they complied with an existing trade agreement struck between the three.

‘Rules of origin’ guidelines under the USMCA deal allow goods to move between the three countries tariff-free if they qualify with a designation that they were made in North America.

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US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick told Sky’s US partner network CNBC that if the concession was extended to Canada, then more than half of usual cross border trade volumes would be exempt.

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Why are tariffs such a big deal?

He too signalled there were signs of progress in Mr Trump’s dispute with America’s closest trading partners, saying each had worked hard to make progress in tackling imports of Fentanyl – blamed for high crime and deaths in US communities.

But Mr Lutnick explained that, as things stand, the reprieve would only last until 2 April when the Trump administration plans to impose reciprocal tariffs – on top of the 25% charges that came into force on Tuesday.

The car industry believes that no products from Canada and Mexico are currently subject to tariffs as they comply with the USMCA deal agreed in 2020.

It should spare consumers extra costs of at least $4,000 on the purchase of a new vehicle, industry data showed.

While that could still change from 2 April, Mr Trump is under intense pressure to relax his tariff regime permanently amid a backlash from US firms and financial market investors who fear it is self defeating.

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A closely-watched forecast has even suggested that the threats of a trade war were enough to push the US economy into recession before Mr Trump took office.

The dollar has sunk in value and US government borrowing costs have risen on the back of the turmoil.

It is widely expected that the European Union will be next to face tariffs – possibly from 2 April – after Trump threatened action “very soon” just last week.

Commenting on the threat to the eurozone from such a move, the president of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said on Thursday: “Just the threat of those tariff increases and potential retaliations are putting a brake on – on investment, on consumption decisions, on employment, hiring, all the rest of it.

While Mr Trump has not issued a specific threat against the UK, her counterpart at the Bank of England Andrew Bailey told a committee of MPs on Wednesday that the US should work “multi-laterally” rather than bilaterally to resolve its disputes.

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Millions in compensation for customers impacted by Barclays outages

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Millions in compensation for customers impacted by Barclays outages

Barclays is to pay millions in compensation for recent IT outages which prevented customers from banking.

The lender said it expects to pay between £5m and £7.5m in compensation to customers for “inconvenience or distress” caused by a payday outage last month, the influential Treasury Committee of MPs said.

The glitch began at the end of January and lasted several days.

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This was caused by “severe degradation” in the performance of their mainframe computer, a large computer used by big organisations for bulk data processing.

It resulted in the failure of 56% of Barclays’s online payments.

Up to £12.5m, however, could be paid when all outages over the last two years from January 2023 and February 2025 are factored in, the committee said.

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It would be by far the biggest amount of compensation paid by a firm in the last two years. Irish bank Bank of Ireland would be the second having issued £350,000 in compensation.

The committee is investigating IT problems at all banks that prevent or limit customer access.

Why does this keep happening?

As part of their inquiries, banks said common reasons for IT failures included problems with third-party suppliers, disruption caused by systems changes and internal software malfunctions.

The responses were received before last Friday’s online banking failures which caused difficulties for millions on payday but the committee said it would request data on the latest disruption.

A recurring problem

The nine top banks written to by the Treasury Committee accumulated 803 hours of unplanned outages, they said, equivalent to 33 days.

These hours were comprised of 158 individual IT failures. Barclays’ payday failure is not captured in the numbers.

As a result, the bank with the longest outages was NatWest with 194 hours of failures.

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Trump moves to exclude carmakers from tariff pain

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Trump moves to exclude carmakers from tariff pain

Donald Trump is to exclude carmakers across North America from the pain of US tariffs levelled against Mexico and Canada, following apparent pressure from motor bosses.

The White House confirmed the concession was made after the president spoke to the bosses of Ford, General Motors and Stellantis in a call on Wednesday.

Each company has manufacturing operations and suppliers in Canada and Mexico.

There will be a tariff exemption of at least a month on vehicles made across the continent but only if a previous agreement on so-called ‘rules of origin’ is implemented in full.

It governs where a product is first sourced and where a tariff may apply during transit across borders.

“Reciprocal” tariffs are still planned from April, the president’s spokesman said.

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Manufacturers have complained of being worst affected by the imposition of 25% tariffs against both Canada and Mexico since Tuesday because flows of parts between the three countries can be hit by tariffs multiple times.

The complicated nature of their operations can mean a single component crosses a border more than once during the production process.

Such a big spike in costs from tariffs poses a big risk to sales as customers are asked to pay more to help compensate for the sanctions.

Automakers’ share prices have been among the worst hit since Mr Trump took office again in January.

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Why are tariffs such a big deal?

The car bosses, according to Reuters news agency sources, pledged additional US investment but wanted clarity on tariffs ahead.

Mr Trump urged them to shift their operations to the United States, according to a White House statement.

The tariff concession marked the first compromise on the trade issue since the president signalled, on Tuesday, that there would be no U-turns and only more tariffs after Canada said it would respond in kind.

There have been growing signs this week that corporate America is uneasy, at best, with the tariff policy against both Mexico and Canada

Those US neighbours, along with China, which is facing 20% tariffs, are the country’s three biggest trading partners.

The imposition of tariffs on all goods has been received badly by financial market investors, worried that US profitability is at risk.

One closely-watched forecast for US growth suggested that the threat of tariffs since Mr Trump’s election victory was confirmed had hammered activity and plunged the country into recession.

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There are mounting reports of boycotts against US goods in Mexico and Canada.

The nerves were publicly admitted by the boss of Jack Daniel’s maker Brown Forman, Lawson Whiting, on Wednesday when he described Canadian provinces taking American-made alcohol off shop shelves as “worse than a tariff”.

US stock market values are sharply down since the inauguration and the dollar has lost more than three cents against rivals including the euro and the pound just this week amid the tariff turmoil.

Such is the growing investor concern for the health of the US economy, the tariff implications have been partly blamed for a steep fall in oil prices.

Brent crude was trading at $68 a barrel earlier on Wednesday – its lowest level for more than three years.

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