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Do you want to believe that New York City is in an urban doom cycle?

Its easy if you just ignore indisputable facts.

Take major crimes, an NYPD metric thats distorted upward by skyrocketing auto theft even as the crimes we fear most murder, shootings, and rape continue to ebb lower from last years totals.

Surprise! Murders are on track to be 40% fewer this year than they were in crime-busting Rudy Giulianis last two years as mayor when they were 673 and 649 respectively.

At the midpoint of 2023, weve had 193 murders, on track for a total of around 400 down from 488 in 2021 and 438 in 2022.

Ah, but there were only 319 murders in 2019!

True, but nobody foresaw the end of the world in 2010 when murders jumped to 536 over 471 in 2009 even though then-Mayor Michael Bloombergs stop-and-frisk was in full force.

As the late, great Yankees skipper Casey Stengel often said, you can look it up.

Misperceptions of crime do have a rational basis, though: an ever-increasing street disorder that might not kill but threatens us in other ways lawless cyclists, open-air drug use, unchecked shoplifting, and raving maniacs who might or might not come at us with knives.

The sense of a city sprung and lurching, beyond the governments will or ability to rein in, creates a mood where actual violent crime may seem more prevalent than it is.

But the supposed inevitability of urban collapse due to remote work another article of faith among New Yorks dark prophets has no visible basis other than suspect computer models. 

Never mind that sidewalks are packed, subway riderships up and apartments are in more demand than ever were doomed!

A recent, endlessly cited paper titled Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse by three learned scholars Arpit Gupta of NYU and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University declared that fewer employees working in offices portend the collapse of property values which in turn portends the collapse of the municipal treasury and, by implication, the end of life on earth as we know it.

The portrayal of a city in its death throes casts a destructive damper on the Big Apple as it continues its fitful recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Dystopian claims take on an aura of unchallengeable truth for those impressed with mathematical equations unintelligible to anyone without a Ph. D.

Who could argue with them?

Well, maybe anybody who ever got a sunburn after a computer model warned of downpours.

The authors are great with numbers but out of touch with Manhattan real-estate reality.

For starters, they rely on Kastle Systems, a security-services provider, to quantify todays supposedly paltry physical office presence a mere 50%, Kastle says. 

But Kastles survey has been widely debunked for its inadequate, worst-case sample.

It covers mostly second-tier office buildings but not the superior buildings owned by the citys 10 largest landlords such as SL Green, Vornado Realty Trust, and Related Companies.

Those so-called Class-A and A-plus properties are the heart of Manhattans half-billion-square-foot office inventory.

Theyre much more than half full because theyre leased to companies that require the most office attendance financial institutions and law firms. 

The Real Estate Board of New York and the Partnership for New York City report considerably higher occupancy than Kastles up to 90% in some premier locations.

But theyd undercut Apocalypse right at the starting gate. 

Sure, commercial landlords are under pressure.

Owners of some older buildings could face bankruptcy.

But even if the overall value of New York City office locations falls 43.9% by 2029 an Apocalypse projection shared by no other analysis would it be the end of the world for the city as a whole?

Maybe it would if there were no actual people involved such as elected officials, landlords, other business leaders, and people just sick of working remotely to arrest the decline. 

Just as Tom Hanks as Capt. Chesley Sullenberger shredded investigators attempt to blame him for the crash computers showed could have been avoided Lets get serious you have not taken into account the human factor so does Apocalypse fall apart the moment whats now called human agency is added. 

Maybe more employees will come back to offices a trend thats gaining traction as bosses read them the riot act.

Landlords might find that they need as much space as before even if employees only come in three or four days a week.

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Maybe owners will find ways to convert more office buildings to other uses than is currently thought possible.

Maybe another Wall Street boom will impel more companies to expand, as private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice just did by doubling its square footage in a move to 550 Madison Ave.

The assumption of shrunken tax revenue is based on the notion that buildings will lose value due to remote work.

But will they?

SL Green just sold a 49% share of 245 Park Ave. to Japans Mori Trust in a deal that values the nearly 60-year-old property at $2 billion.

Thats hardly a catastrophic plunge from the towers last sale price of $2.2 billion in 2017 when the market was at its peak.

Comptroller Brad Lander reported last week to some surprise that office-building values actually increased from 2021 to 2022 to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

He wrote that even if office values were to fall by 40%, it would cost the city no more than $1.1 billion in annual property tax revenue by 2027 a mere 3% of all property tax collections, only 1% of the overall budget and well within the range in which tax revenues can ordinarily vary.

For all its intimidating graphs and equations, Apocalypse works the same sensationalist street as alarmist, headline-grabbing forecasts by credentialed experts that turned out to be bogus.

There was no population bomb that caused global famine as foreseen by Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne Howland Ehrlich in 1968; no Great Depression of 1990 as predicted by best-selling economist Ravi Batra in 1987; and no World War III with Japan as envisioned by geopolitical analysts George Friedman and Meredith LeBard 

Therell be no real estate apocalypse, either. 

Hold the taps for New York City, psychos, and all.

Theres nothing certain about our future, of course.

But one day well look back on the Doom Loop and marvel that it panicked so many of us who are glad to be here and plan to stay.

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India and Pakistan were close to miscalculation either side couldn’t afford

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India and Pakistan were close to miscalculation either side couldn't afford

Both India and Pakistan claimed they didn’t want all-out war, or for things to escalate.

But given that those statements came within hours of airstrikes from either side, it’s easy to understand why the world was sceptical.

Fast forward just a few hours though and a ceasefire has been agreed – with the help of the US, who brokered talks and even announced the deal.

India-Pakistan live: Latest updates as ceasefire agreed

The agreement has sparked celebrations in Pakistan, with people in many cities, including Lahore, taking to the streets. Chants of “Pakistan Zindabad” – “Long Live Pakistan” in English – are ringing out.

But the deal doesn’t undo the events of the past two weeks, which will continue to weigh heavily on the minds of many here.

The military action has been the most significant between the countries in decades and dozens have died on both sides.

More on India

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Pakistan fires missiles at India

Just this morning, Pakistan inflicted some serious damage to India’s military sites and New Delhi did not waste time responding with further strikes.

It was a reminder, for many, of the uncertainty of the situation between India and Pakistan.

Read more:
How India and Pakistan’s militaries match up
The story of India and Pakistan’s deadly conflict

A house damaged in overnight Indian shelling, in Shah Kot, in Neelum Vallery. Pic: AP/M.D. Mughal
Image:
A house damaged in Indian shelling, in Shah Kot, in Neelum Vallery. Pic: AP/M.D. Mughal

Representatives from each country will speak again on Monday and even with the strikes halted, for now, the next 48 hours will be a very testing moment.

Both sides have often shown striking strategic restraint. And in the past fortnight, neither has launched a full-scale attack.

But their enmity has been enduring, and even with the agreement in place, it feels a bit complacent to assume India and Pakistan will just walk back from the brink.

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Can the Golden Knights rally from down 2-0?

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Stanley Cup playoffs daily: Can the Golden Knights rally from down 2-0?

The second-round series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have entered the “venue change” stage, where the previous visitors are now playing host.

The Carolina Hurricanes headed back to the Lenovo Center with a 1-1 series against the Washington Capitals, and they’ll pick up hostilities at 6 p.m. ET Saturday. The Edmonton Oilers traveled back to Rogers Place holding a 2-0 lead over the Vegas Golden Knights; Game 3 of that series is 9 p.m. ET Saturday.

What will the series tally be in Caps-Canes when it heads back to D.C. — and will the Knights win at least one in Alberta so they even see a Game 5 back in Las Vegas?

Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Friday’s games and the three stars of Friday from Arda Öcal.

Matchup notes

Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 3 | 6 p.m. ET | TNT

With the Canes and Capitals tied up 1-1 heading to Raleigh for Games 3 and 4, ESPN BET has Carolina as the -215 series favorite. Washington is +180 to win the series.

Capitals defenseman John Carlson scored a power-play goal in Game 2, his 13th career playoff power-play goal, which breaks a tie with Brian Leetch for third for such goals by an American-born defenseman. He still trails Chris Chelios (14) and Brian Rafalski (17).

For the first time in his postseason career, Tom Wilson reached all of these thresholds: 2 points, 3 shots on goal, 2 hits and 2 blocked shots. His seven points this season is the most he has had in a playoff run since the Cup-winning year of 2018 (15).

The Hurricanes have not held an in-game lead since Game 4 of the first round against the Devils. They won the series in Game 5 in a double-overtime game, then won Game 1 of this series 2-1 in OT after trailing 1-0. Since that lead in Game 4 of the first round, they have trailed for 89:28 and been tied for 117:55.

Among qualified goaltenders this postseason, Frederik Andersen leads by a wide margin in goals-against average (1.55), and is second in save percentage, at .930. The netminder ahead of him in SV%? Washington’s Logan Thompson.

Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers
Game 3 | 9 p.m. ET | TNT

Following two wins by the Oilers in Vegas, ESPN BET now lists Edmonton as the -550 favorites to win this series, with the Golden Knights at +380. Edmonton is also the current favorite to win the Cup, at +300, narrowly ahead of the Stars, at +325. Vegas is now +1800, the longest odds of any team remaining in the playoffs.

Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid combined to score the game-winning OT goal in Game 2. It was the second OT goal this postseason for Draisaitl, and he is now tied for the most such goals in a single postseason in Oilers history with Esa Tikkanen in 1991.

McDavid is second among playoff scorers with 14 points through eight games, trailing only Mikko Rantanen‘s 15. McDavid’s 1.75 points per game this postseason is ahead of his rate in playoff seasons past (1.58) and well ahead of his rate during last year’s run to the Stanley Cup Final (1.36).

Victor Olofsson had two goals and an assist in a losing effort in Game 2. Both goals were on the power play, and he joins Jack Eichel as the only players in Knights history with multiple power-play goals in a single playoff game.

Speaking of Eichel, he finished with three assists, joining Shea Theodore and William Karlsson as the only players in Knights history with two three-assist playoff games on their résumé.


Öcal’s three stars from Friday

After a rough first round against the Blues, Hellebuyck shut out the Stars in Game 2. He made 21 saves en route to the fourth clean sheet of his postseason career.

Ehlers had his second career multigoal game and added an assist in a big Game 2 effort that tied Winnipeg’s series with Dallas 1-1.

The former Bruin continues to haunt the Maple Leafs, this time with the overtime winner to get the Panthers on the series board at 2-1. It was his fourth career playoff OT goal, and he extended his own NHL record for most consecutive postseasons with a game-winning goal (nine).


Friday’s recaps

Florida Panthers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
TOR leads 2-1 | Game 4 Sunday

Toronto entered with a 2-0 series lead and got out to a 2-0 start in the game as well, with goals from Matthew Knies and John Tavares, before Aleksander Barkov drew the Panthers back to within a goal with his third goal of the postseason. Tavares added a power-play tally at 2:52 of the second period on a slick deflection, before the Panthers ripped off two goals in quick succession to tie the score. The first was thanks to Sam Reinhart poking the puck in during a wild scramble in the Leafs’ crease, the second after a superb pass from Sam Bennett to Carter Verhaeghe. Jonah Gadjovich put the home squad up 4-3, but Morgan Rielly tied things up midway through the third. It took until the final five minutes of the first OT, but Brad Marchand came through with another game-winning goal. Full recap.

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1:30

Brad Marchand’s OT winner sparks pandemonium from Panthers crowd

Brad Marchand scores a massive overtime goal to deliver the Panthers a 5-4 win over the Maple Leafs.

Winnipeg Jets 4, Dallas Stars 0
Series tied 1-1 | Game 3 Sunday

If this is the kind of goaltending the Jets will now get from Connor Hellebuyck, the Stars (and the rest of the NHL) are in trouble. Hellebuyck stopped all 21 shots sent on the Jets’ goal en route to his fourth career postseason shutout. On the offensive side, Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers got the party started in the first. Adam Lowry added his fourth goal of the postseason in the second, and that 3-0 lead stood until 16:20 of the third, when Ehlers capped off the festivities with an empty-net goal. Full recap.

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0:26

Nikolaj Ehlers rolls in an empty-net goal for Winnipeg

Nikolaj Ehlers scores his second goal of the game to pad the Jets’ lead late in the third period vs. the Stars.

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Leafs’ Stolarz progressing but not close to return

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Leafs' Stolarz progressing but not close to return

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz continues to work his way back but doesn’t appear close to a return in Toronto’s second-round Eastern Conference playoff series against the Florida Panthers.

“He’s progressing in the right direction,” Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube said Saturday. “But he has not skated yet [since getting hurt].”

Stolarz was injured during Game 1 on Monday. The goaltender took a puck off his mask and an elbow to the head from Panthers forward Sam Bennett in the second period, exiting shortly after the Bennett hit. Stolarz, who was ill on Toronto’s bench before he left the game, was later transported to a hospital for evaluation.

The veteran was able to rejoin his teammates Tuesday at their facility but did not travel with the Maple Leafs to Florida ahead of Friday’s Game 3.

Joseph Woll took over the starting duties from Stolarz and helped stake Toronto to a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. But Woll struggled in Game 3, recording an .861 save percentage as the Panthers mounted two multigoal comebacks to down the Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime.

Berube said after the loss that he “thought [Woll] was really good” but that he didn’t love when Panthers fourth-liner Jonah Gadjovich beat the goaltender cleanly from outside the right faceoff circle to give Florida its first lead of the game at 4-3.

Woll also has been adjusting to playing the puck amid Florida’s smothering forecheck.

“They rim a lot of pucks,” Woll said Friday. “I’m just trying to do my best to help us break out.”

Florida hasn’t made it easy on Toronto in that respect. Berube anticipates Woll can learn from Friday’s mistakes and improve, though.

“It’s difficult,” Berube said. “A lot of those rims are up; they’re not on the ice. And that’s designed. If they can get a good lick on it, they’re going to get it on the glass. It’s pretty tough for him to come out and play those. He did get to a lot of them. But they’re coming hard. He’s going to have to move it quick.”

Game 4 of the series is set for Sunday.

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