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Do you want to believe that New York City is in an urban doom cycle?

Its easy if you just ignore indisputable facts.

Take major crimes, an NYPD metric thats distorted upward by skyrocketing auto theft even as the crimes we fear most murder, shootings, and rape continue to ebb lower from last years totals.

Surprise! Murders are on track to be 40% fewer this year than they were in crime-busting Rudy Giulianis last two years as mayor when they were 673 and 649 respectively.

At the midpoint of 2023, weve had 193 murders, on track for a total of around 400 down from 488 in 2021 and 438 in 2022.

Ah, but there were only 319 murders in 2019!

True, but nobody foresaw the end of the world in 2010 when murders jumped to 536 over 471 in 2009 even though then-Mayor Michael Bloombergs stop-and-frisk was in full force.

As the late, great Yankees skipper Casey Stengel often said, you can look it up.

Misperceptions of crime do have a rational basis, though: an ever-increasing street disorder that might not kill but threatens us in other ways lawless cyclists, open-air drug use, unchecked shoplifting, and raving maniacs who might or might not come at us with knives.

The sense of a city sprung and lurching, beyond the governments will or ability to rein in, creates a mood where actual violent crime may seem more prevalent than it is.

But the supposed inevitability of urban collapse due to remote work another article of faith among New Yorks dark prophets has no visible basis other than suspect computer models. 

Never mind that sidewalks are packed, subway riderships up and apartments are in more demand than ever were doomed!

A recent, endlessly cited paper titled Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse by three learned scholars Arpit Gupta of NYU and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University declared that fewer employees working in offices portend the collapse of property values which in turn portends the collapse of the municipal treasury and, by implication, the end of life on earth as we know it.

The portrayal of a city in its death throes casts a destructive damper on the Big Apple as it continues its fitful recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Dystopian claims take on an aura of unchallengeable truth for those impressed with mathematical equations unintelligible to anyone without a Ph. D.

Who could argue with them?

Well, maybe anybody who ever got a sunburn after a computer model warned of downpours.

The authors are great with numbers but out of touch with Manhattan real-estate reality.

For starters, they rely on Kastle Systems, a security-services provider, to quantify todays supposedly paltry physical office presence a mere 50%, Kastle says. 

But Kastles survey has been widely debunked for its inadequate, worst-case sample.

It covers mostly second-tier office buildings but not the superior buildings owned by the citys 10 largest landlords such as SL Green, Vornado Realty Trust, and Related Companies.

Those so-called Class-A and A-plus properties are the heart of Manhattans half-billion-square-foot office inventory.

Theyre much more than half full because theyre leased to companies that require the most office attendance financial institutions and law firms. 

The Real Estate Board of New York and the Partnership for New York City report considerably higher occupancy than Kastles up to 90% in some premier locations.

But theyd undercut Apocalypse right at the starting gate. 

Sure, commercial landlords are under pressure.

Owners of some older buildings could face bankruptcy.

But even if the overall value of New York City office locations falls 43.9% by 2029 an Apocalypse projection shared by no other analysis would it be the end of the world for the city as a whole?

Maybe it would if there were no actual people involved such as elected officials, landlords, other business leaders, and people just sick of working remotely to arrest the decline. 

Just as Tom Hanks as Capt. Chesley Sullenberger shredded investigators attempt to blame him for the crash computers showed could have been avoided Lets get serious you have not taken into account the human factor so does Apocalypse fall apart the moment whats now called human agency is added. 

Maybe more employees will come back to offices a trend thats gaining traction as bosses read them the riot act.

Landlords might find that they need as much space as before even if employees only come in three or four days a week.

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Maybe owners will find ways to convert more office buildings to other uses than is currently thought possible.

Maybe another Wall Street boom will impel more companies to expand, as private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice just did by doubling its square footage in a move to 550 Madison Ave.

The assumption of shrunken tax revenue is based on the notion that buildings will lose value due to remote work.

But will they?

SL Green just sold a 49% share of 245 Park Ave. to Japans Mori Trust in a deal that values the nearly 60-year-old property at $2 billion.

Thats hardly a catastrophic plunge from the towers last sale price of $2.2 billion in 2017 when the market was at its peak.

Comptroller Brad Lander reported last week to some surprise that office-building values actually increased from 2021 to 2022 to 97% of pre-pandemic levels.

He wrote that even if office values were to fall by 40%, it would cost the city no more than $1.1 billion in annual property tax revenue by 2027 a mere 3% of all property tax collections, only 1% of the overall budget and well within the range in which tax revenues can ordinarily vary.

For all its intimidating graphs and equations, Apocalypse works the same sensationalist street as alarmist, headline-grabbing forecasts by credentialed experts that turned out to be bogus.

There was no population bomb that caused global famine as foreseen by Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne Howland Ehrlich in 1968; no Great Depression of 1990 as predicted by best-selling economist Ravi Batra in 1987; and no World War III with Japan as envisioned by geopolitical analysts George Friedman and Meredith LeBard 

Therell be no real estate apocalypse, either. 

Hold the taps for New York City, psychos, and all.

Theres nothing certain about our future, of course.

But one day well look back on the Doom Loop and marvel that it panicked so many of us who are glad to be here and plan to stay.

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Sports

Ohtani hits 53rd HR to tie Schwarber for NL lead

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Ohtani hits 53rd HR to tie Schwarber for NL lead

Shohei Ohtani launched his 53rd home run to tie for the National League lead as the Los Angeles Dodgers erased an early four-run deficit Saturday night in a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants.

Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.

“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”

Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.

Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.

“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”

Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.

The Giants stayed four games behind the New York Mets for the last NL wild card, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks also ahead of the Giants.

Jack Dreyer pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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What recognising a Palestinian state actually means

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What recognising a Palestinian state actually means

The UK is planning to recognise Palestine as a state in a major shift in policy.

The announcement – expected today – comes ahead of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in New York next week.

While Sir Keir Starmer signalled the move in July, it was not made official before Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK, reportedly due to fears it could have dominated the meeting with the US president.

Here is what you need to know about the significance of recognising a Palestinian state.

What is the current status of Palestinian statehood?

The Palestinian Authority (PA), led by President Mahmoud Abbas, is internationally recognised as representing the Palestinian people.

The governing body exercises limited self-rule in parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank under agreements with Israel. It issues Palestinian passports and runs the Palestinian health and education systems.

However, some trade, investment, educational and cultural exchanges are restricted by Israel and there are currently no Palestinian airports.

The landlocked West Bank can only be reached through Israel or through the Israeli-controlled border with Jordan. Israel also controls all access to the Gaza Strip.

Much of what would form a potential Palestinian state has been under Israeli military occupation for more than half a century.

A map showing Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories
Image:
A map showing Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories

Under the Montevideo Convention of 1933, there are several criteria before Palestine can be recognised as a sovereign state under international law.

The process requires the state to have:
• A permanent population;
• A defined territory;
• An effective government and international relations;
• Formal diplomatic processes including embassies, ambassadors and treaties.

The UK did not sign the 1933 convention, but in July some of Britain’s top lawyers wrote a letter to the government’s top legal adviser warning that recognising a Palestinian state could breach the convention, which they said has become part of “customary law”.

But others, including Philippe Sands KC, a professor of law at University College London, argued against this. He told The Guardian that the UN’s top court, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), has recognised that Palestinians have a right to “self-determination” – meaning a country determines its own statehood and forms its own government.

Is the move just symbolic?

The likes of China, India, Russia and many Arab states have recognised Palestinian independence for decades, but largely see it as a symbolic gesture, which has little influence on what happens on the ground.

However, in the UK’s case, recognising a Palestinian state could put the two on “equal footing” according to the Palestinian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Husam Zomlot.

This could result in strategic partnerships or lead to steps such as banning products that come from Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, Vincent Fean, a former British consul general to Jerusalem, told Reuters.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who was the first leader of a G7 country to endorse recognition, said the recognition would also come with a commitment that the PA would enact reforms, which, he says, would put it in a better position to govern a post-war Gaza.

Naima Abu Ful holds her malnourished 2-year-old child, Yazan in Gaza. Pic: AP
Image:
Naima Abu Ful holds her malnourished 2-year-old child, Yazan in Gaza. Pic: AP

Why is the UK acting now?

Sir Keir Starmer said in July that the time to recognise Palestine is now, as it would have the highest impact given the hope of a two-state solution – a “secure” Israel alongside a “viable” Palestinian state – was at risk.

He said it was part of an “eight-part plan” agreed with France and Germany, but denied it represented a U-turn after pressure from Labour MPs, saying instead it was always part of the plan to recognise Palestine.

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From July: Starmer reveals plan to recognise Palestine as state

Pressure has also been mounting on Sir Keir after Israel began a major ground offensive to take Gaza City on 16 September.

Despite widespread condemnation, Israeli tanks and troops have continued to push deeper into the city in a bid to destroy Hamas and force the release of the remaining Israeli hostages.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper called the operation “utterly reckless and appalling”.

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Tanks roll into Gaza as ‘appalling’ Israeli offensive begins

The UK’s official declaration comes days before the annual gathering of world leaders at the UN General Assembly, where Gaza will be a major topic of discussion.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to talk at the assembly, but Mr Abbas has not been granted a US visa. It is likely he will instead appear via video.

What countries do (and do not) recognise Palestine?

As of September 2025, 147 out of 193 United Nations member states recognise Palestine. This includes more than a dozen in Europe, including Spain, Ireland and Norway.

Click, zoom in or search for a country to see their stance on recognising a Palestinian state:

Recognition from countries vs the United Nations

Without a full seat at the UN, the PA only has limited ability to conduct bilateral relations. This means a delegation officially representing the State of Palestine has permanent observer status but no voting rights.

Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, at last year's UN General Assembly. Pic AP
Image:
Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, at last year’s UN General Assembly. Pic AP

No matter how many individual countries recognise Palestinian independence, full UN membership requires the approval of the Security Council.

Approval requires at least nine votes in favour and no vetoes by the permanent ‘big five’ member states: UK, US, France, Russia and China.

If the Council approves the request, it goes to the General Assembly for approval, where a two-thirds majority is needed.

Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen. Pic: Reuters

A state can’t join the UN without the backing of both the Security Council and the General Assembly.

In 2011, the Security Council looked at an application for Palestine to become a permanent member for several weeks but it was unable to reach a unanimous position, so a formal vote never took place.

Most recently, on 18 September, the US vetoed a Security Council resolution that had demanded an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all hostages, saying the effort did not go far enough in condemning Hamas.

How have Palestinians and the Israelis responded?

When the UK, France and Canada announced in July they were planning to recognise Palestine as a state, the PA’s leader Mr Abbas expressed “thanks and appreciation” to all three countries.

Mr Netanyahu condemned the move, saying recognising a Palestinian state would be a “launch pad to annihilate Israel – not to live in peace beside it”.

He says Israel will never give up ultimate security control of Gaza or the West Bank, and the decision to recognise Palestine as a state “constitutes a reward for Hamas and harms efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of hostages”.

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Is Israel committing genocide?

What about America?

The US, Israel’s closest ally, also remains opposed to official recognition of a Palestinian state.

During a press conference with Sir Keir in the UK on 18 September, Mr Trump told reporters he has a “disagreement” with his British counterpart over it.

In reaction to European allies recognising Palestinian independence, the US has imposed sanctions on Palestinian officials.

Starmer and Trump at a joint press conference. Pic: AP
Image:
Starmer and Trump at a joint press conference. Pic: AP

Within the US Senate, however, a group of Democratic senators have introduced a resolution to try and urge recognition of a Palestinian state – showing some divide in America’s two main political parties.

However, the resolution is unlikely to pass the chamber, where Republicans have a 53-47 majority.

How does this all link to a two-state solution?

Simply put, a two-state solution is widely regarded as the most viable framework for enabling Palestinian independence.

It would see an independent Palestinian state established alongside the existing state of Israel – giving both peoples their own territory.

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The two-state solution explained

Earlier in September, the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly – 142 votes in favour – to endorse a declaration outlining the “tangible, time bound, and irreversible steps” towards a two-state solution.

The declaration condemns the October 7 attacks by Hamas and the retaliatory action by Israel against civilians and infrastructure in Gaza. Israel and the US were among 10 member states that voted against the resolution.

The Palestinians seek an independent state in the occupied West Bank, annexed East Jerusalem and Gaza, territories that have been occupied by Israel since the 1967 Six-Day War.

Mr Netanyahu and most of Israel’s political class have long been opposed to Palestinian statehood, and argue that it would reward militants after October 7.

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One of the biggest obstacles to a two-state solution would be deciding what the borders of a potential Palestinian state would be.

Many believe they should be the same ones that existed before 1967, but since then, increasing numbers of Israeli settlements have been established inside the West Bank, with around 600,000 Israelis now living there and in occupied East Jerusalem.

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Charlie Kirk ally claims ‘miracle’ stopped bullet killing anyone else

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Charlie Kirk ally claims 'miracle' stopped bullet killing anyone else

The producer of Charlie Kirk’s podcast has claimed that a “miracle” stopped more people being killed by the bullet that hit the right-wing influencer.

Andrew Kolvet claimed to have spoken to a surgeon that tried to save Mr Kirk’s life, and posted on social media to discuss the apparent lack of an exit wound.

A prominent right-wing figure in the US, Mr Kirk was a staunch ally of President Donald Trump and was known for his conservative viewpoints on abortion, religion and LGBT issues.

The 31-year-old was shot dead while speaking at a university event in Utah last week.

Mr Trump and other public figures are expected to be in Arizona on Sunday for a memorial service for Mr Kirk which is expected to draw 100,000 people.

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Prosecutors detail case against Charlie Kirk’s alleged killer

Mr Kolvet, executive producer of the Charlie Kirk Show, apologised for the “somewhat graphic” nature of his post on X.

In it, he discussed what he said was a lack of an exit wound from the bullet, despite it being “a high powered, high velocity round”.

Mr Kolvet included what he said were quotes from a surgeon who operated on Mr Kirk.

“It was an absolute miracle that someone else didn’t get killed,” Mr Kolvet quoted the surgeon as saying.

“His bone was so healthy and the density was so so impressive that he’s like the man of steel. It should have just gone through and through. It likely would have killed those standing behind him too.”

Mr Kolvet said what happened was “remarkable” and “miraculous”.

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Crowds chant at Charlie Kirk vigil at Texas university

Read more:
Charlie Kirk memorial to be held in Arizona stadium
Analysis: Trump’s creeping control over TV

Memorial to draw 100,000 people

President Trump and JD Vance are expected to be among the prominent MAGA members who will pay tribute to Mr Kirk at the memorial event.

It will take place at State Farm Stadium, the home of the Arizona Cardinals NFL team, amid a heavy law enforcement presence.

State Farm Stadium in Arizona. Pic: Reuters
Image:
State Farm Stadium in Arizona. Pic: Reuters

President Trump has blamed the “radical left” for the death of Mr Kirk, whom he credited for helping him win the 2024 presidential election.

It comes as the death of Mr Kirk has turned into a debate over the First Amendment.

While they have repeatedly criticised what they claim are assaults on free speech, members of the MAGA movement appear to be taking a different stance when the subject is one of their own, launching attacks on people they deem to be making disparaging comments about Mr Kirk.

Dozens of people, from journalists to teachers, have already lost their jobs for allegedly making offensive comments about the podcaster.

Late-night chat show host Jimmy Kimmel was pulled from the air indefinitely by ABC following a backlash from the Trump-appointed head of the Federal Communications Commission over the comedian’s remarks about Mr Kirk.

The State Department also has warned it would revoke the visas of any foreigners who celebrated his assassination.

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