The Bank of England has voted to leave interest rates on hold at 4%, but a knife-edge split on its Monetary Policy Committee suggests a cut may be coming very soon.

The nine members of the Bank’s MPC voted 5-4 in favour of leaving borrowing costs unchanged, in the face of higher-than-usual inflation in recent months.

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The Bank’s chief mandate is to keep inflation – the rate at which prices have changed over the past year – as close as possible to 2% and, all else equal, higher interest rates tend to bring down prices.

However, consumer price index inflation was at 3.8% in September, higher than anywhere else in the G7 group of industrialised nations.

However, unveiling a new set of economic forecasts today, the Bank said it expects inflation has now peaked, and will drop in the coming months, settling a little bit above 2% in two years’ time.

The Bank’s decision comes only three weeks ahead of the budget, which will lead some to suspect that it held off a rate cut so it could reassess the state of the economy post-budget.

The chancellor has signalled that she is likely to raise taxes and trim back her spending plans – something that could further dampen economic growth.

The governor, Andrew Bailey, said: “We held interest rates at 4% today. We still think rates are on a gradual path downwards but we need to be sure that inflation is on track to return to our 2% target before we cut them again.”

The Bank said that, so far at least, tariffs had contributed to slightly lower than expected inflation.

It said it expected gross domestic product growth of 1.2% next year and 1.6% the year after. This is all predicated on the presumption that the Bank brings its interest rates down from 4% to 3.5% next year.

The fact that four MPC members voted for a cut in rates – and the hint from the governor that more cuts are coming – will contribute to speculation that the Bank may cut rates as soon as next month, shortly before Christmas.

One of the two prisoners mistakenly freed from HMP Wandsworth has handed himself in.

William “Billy” Smith, 35, was wrongly freed from the prison earlier this week but, after a three-day manhunt, Surrey Police have confirmed he handed himself in on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the search for sex offender Brahim Kaddour-Cherif continues. He was also mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth on 29 October.

Smith was sentenced to 45 months for multiple fraud offences at Croydon Crown Court on Monday, but was mistakenly released later the same day.

Sky News understands that his release came about because of a court error, telling the prison his custodial sentence was a suspended one instead.

A correction was initially sent to the wrong person, and by the time it got to the right place, he had left.

Surrey Police said: “We are cancelling our appeal to help find wanted 35-year-old William Smith who was released in error from HMP Wandsworth on Monday, November 3. Smith handed himself in to HMP Wandsworth today.”

Smith seen waving and smiling

He was filmed returning to the prison by ITV News. Footage showed Smith waving and smiling as he approached the prison’s entrance, where he then spoke to staff.

Justice Secretary David Lammy, who came under fire while standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, posted a response on X: “William Smith is back in custody. The spike in mistaken releases is unacceptable.

“We’re modernising prison systems – replacing paper with digital tools to cut errors. We’re working with police to recapture Brahim Kaddour-Cherif.”

Justice minister Alex Davies-Jones said prison chiefs were being summoned for a meeting on Thursday and a team of digital experts had been tasked with overhauling the “archaic” paper-based system of prisoner records.

The Prison Governors’ Association (PGA) described releases in error as “neither rare nor hidden”, but said the scale of them was “deeply concerning”.

In total, 262 prisoners were released in error in the year leading up to March 2025.

Hunt for second prisoner

The Metropolitan Police has continued to appeal to the public over the whereabouts of Kaddour-Cherif, 24, who the force believes is still in London just over a week after his release.

“He is believed to be in London and has links to Tower Hamlets and Westminster. If you see him, please call 999 immediately,” the Met said on social media.

Read more from Sky News:
Nearly 40,000 freed early to tackle overcrowding
How many prisoners are released by mistake?

The Algerian national was in the process of being deported after he overstayed his visa. It is understood he is not an asylum seeker.

He was serving a sentence at Wandsworth for trespass with intent to steal, but had previously also been convicted for indecent exposure.

His release came just five days after the high-profile release of migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu from HMP Chelmsford in Essex.

A man who murdered a “Good Samaritan” by driving into the middle of a wedding brawl has been sentenced to 26 years in prison.

Hassan Jhangur has been jailed for murder after he ran into Chris Marriott, 46, in his car, leaving him trapped beneath.

Jhangur used his Seat Ibiza as a weapon after a fight between two families at his sister’s wedding reception on 27 December 2023.

He first drove into Riasat Khan, the father of Hasan Khan – the man who had just married Jhangur’s sister following a row between the families.

The impact threw him over the bonnet, then he crashed into a group of four people that included Mr Marriott.

Mr Marriott had stopped to help one of Jhangur’s sisters, who was lying in the road unconscious in the Burngreave area of Sheffield.

Off-duty midwife Alison Norris and Jhangur’s mother and sister were also injured, Sheffield Crown Court was told in July.

Jhangur, 25, then got out of the car and stabbed his new brother-in-law Hasan several times in the head and chest.

The court heard Jhangur later told police: “That’s why you don’t mess with the Jhangurs.”

In July, he was found guilty of murdering Mr Marriott a year after another set of jurors failed to reach a verdict.

Jhangur was also found guilty of wounding his brother-in-law with intent but cleared of his attempted murder.

He was further convicted of four charges of GBH with intent, relating to Alison Norris, Ambreen Jhangur, Nafeesa Jhangur and Riasat Khan.

Today, the judge told him: “This was a deliberate and senseless act of hot-headed and wanton violence resulting in the tragic death of Chris Marriott and life-changing consequences for many others.”

Jhangur’s father, Mohammed Jhangur, 57, of Whiteways Road, Sheffield, was found guilty of perverting the course of justice after he concealed a knife.

Mr Marriott’s widow, Bryony Marriott, wiped away tears as she read a personal statement to the court about the father-of-two.

‘He had a compassionate heart and loved helping’

She said: “Chris was genuine, kind and loving. He was reliable, trustworthy, affectionate and gentle.”

Mrs Marriott added: “Chris was someone people felt comfortable and safe with, and was great at being a friend.

“Chris was a man of faith, and his love for God and for people shone through in what he devoted his time to.

“He had a compassionate heart and loved helping, supporting and empowering others.”