Airbnb bookings have declined over the past year in cities like Austin and San Francisco that have historically been popular destinations for short-term rentals, prompting concern over the economic uncertainty wracking urban areas and the prospect of a “doom loop” developing.
Nick Gerli, the CEO of Austin-based Reventure Consulting, recently tweeted that the “Airbnb collapse is real” and that, “Revenues are down nearly 50 percent in cities like Phoenix and Austin.”
He went on to say, “Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hardest hit by the revenue collapse.”
Gerli cited AllTheRooms data which showed a 48.6% year-over-year decline in the average revenue per available listing in the three-month period ending in May for the Austin metropolitan area.
He attributed the decline to the end of pandemic-era migration, tweeting: “The pandemic is over. Fewer people are working from home / vacationing in states like Montana, Texas, and Tennessee. So the demand is way down. Just as the Airbnb supply went way up. So you get a crash.”
An Airbnb spokesperson told FOX Business, “The data is not consistent with our own data. As we said during our Q1 earnings, more guests are traveling on Airbnb than ever before, with Nights and Experiences Booked growing 19% in Q1 2023 compared to a year ago.”
Jamie Lane, the chief economist and SVP of analytics at AirDNA, also pushed back on the notion of a major decline in short-term rentals.
Lane tweeted an analysis using AirDNA data of the same metro areas covered in Gerlis analysis which found an average decline of 3.6% rather than 40%.
The AirDNA data showed the Austin metro area experienced a 7.2% year-over-year decline in revenue per available listing for the same three-month period ending May 2023.
The San Francisco Standard reported that data from AirDNA found that nights stayed in vacation rentals in San Francisco were down 29% in May 2023 compared to May 2019.
The outlet also spoke to several Bay Area homeowners who rent out rooms through Airbnb, including host Keith Freedman, who estimated that prices for San Francisco Airbnbs are down about 40% from last year and occupancy has declined 20% to 25%.
Separately, Gerli tweeted data showing that median rents in the Austin metro area declined 6% year-over-year while the San Francisco metro area experienced a 4% decline, which he said could also contribute to owners being forced to sell in the second half of this year.
Some of the decline in rents could be attributed to slowing population growth in those metro areas.
While the Austin area has seen rapid growth over the past decade, particularly in the suburbs outside the city limits, the Census Bureau estimates that Austins population grew 1.3% from April 2020 to July 2022.
Unlike Austin, San Francisco’s population growth has been on a downward trend in recent years.
The Census Bureau estimates that San Francisco Countys population declined by 7.5% from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2022.
Slowing population growth or overall declines in a citys population raises the prospect of an “urban doom loop” developing.
An urban doom loop involves a decline in workers in offices in city centers, which results in businesses shrinking their office footprint and their rental overhead.
The decline in demand causes real estate prices to fall, which in turn reduces property tax revenue while other sources of tax revenue, like sales tax, also take a hit due to the reduced traffic in downtown areas.
As the overall tax base declines, it becomes harder for city governments to fund services like law enforcement, which can lead to a rise in crime that makes downtown areas less desirable, worsening the “doom loop.”
The US will take over Gaza and “own it”, Donald Trump has said.
Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, he said the two million Palestinian people living in the territory, which he described as a “demolition site”, would go to “various domains”.
Asked about deploying US troops to fill a potential security vacuum, the president replied: “We’ll do what is necessary.”
Expanding on plans for the territory, he said the US would “develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs” and turn it into “something the entire Middle East can be very proud of”.
The president reiterated his suggestion from 25 January that Palestinians could be relocated to Egypt and Jordan – something both countries, other Arab nations including Saudi Arabia, and Palestinian leaders, have rejected.
Palestinians in Gaza could go to countries beyond Jordan and Egypt too, he said.
Asked whether he thought Egypt and Jordan would accept Palestinians, he said he believed they would.
But, he added: “I hope we could do something where they wouldn’t want to go back. Who would want to go back?
“They’ve experienced nothing but death and destruction.”
Saudi Arabia immediately responded, stressing its rejection of attempts to displace Palestinians from Gaza, and insisted it would not establish relations with Israel without a Palestinian state.
Asked on what authority the US could take control of Gaza, Mr Trump told reporters he sees a “long term ownership position” which would, he claimed, bring stability to that part of the Middle East.
“This was not a decision made lightly,” he said.
“Everybody I’ve spoken to loves the idea of the United States owning that piece of land, developing and creating thousands of jobs.”
It would be the “Riviera of the Middle East”.
He continued: “I’ve studied it. I’ve studied this very closely over a lot of months, and I’ve seen it from every different angle.”
He does not believe Palestinians should return to Gaza because it is a “guarantee that they’re going to end up dying”.
He talked about finding a “beautiful area to resettle people, permanently, in nice homes where they can be happy and not be shot and not be killed and not be knifed to death like what’s happening in Gaza”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
The war, triggered by Hamas carrying out a massacre of 1,200 people and taking 250 others hostage during the 7 October 2023 attacks in Israel, has temporarily stopped since the long-sought ceasefire deal came into effect on 19 January.
More than 47,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Hamas’s attack, according to local authorities.
Mr Netanyahu, the first world leader to meet Mr Trump since the pro-Israel president’s return to the White House, sat beside the Republican as he answered questions from the press.
Trump relocation call will horrify Palestinians
If President Trump is to be taken at face value then he is set to repeat history.
It would end the prospect of a two-state solution – Israelis and Palestinians living side by side on the same land.
It could also wreck any prospects of diplomatic normalisation between Israel and Gulf Arab states.
Nations like Saudi Arabia wouldn’t stand for such a permanent resettlement and probably wouldn’t trust any resettlement presented as ‘temporary’ – which this is conspicuously not.
The two countries being told to take the people of Gaza – Egypt and Jordan – have firmly refused to do so. The American president seems convinced they will roll over.
Maybe though this is part of Trump’s art of the deal: to suggest something, then not follow through – and present that as a concession down the line.
There’s something else too.
Even if Israeli PM Netanyahu believes it’s a plan that can’t work and could further the cries of ethnic cleansing (it’s notable that he didn’t add his overt support to it alongside Trump) the president’s plan will certainly help him domestically where his future is fragile.
Netanyahu can dangle ‘permanent relocation’ in front of the real hardliners in his government who keep him in power.
Whatever is at play here, the announcement today will horrify Palestinians and it will delight and embolden the hardline elements of Israeli society who have dreamt of a Jewish state free of Palestinians.
‘Plans change with time’
The US president hinted he would seek an independent Palestinian state as part of a broader two-state solution to the decades-long Israel-Palestine conflict.
“Well, a lot of plans change with time,” he told reporters when he was asked if he was still committed to a plan similar to the one he spelled out in 2020 that described a possible Palestinian state.
That plan proposed a series of Palestinian enclaves surrounded by an enlarged Israel, did not have the Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem, but suggested a Palestinian capital on the outskirts of the city.
“A lot of death has occurred since I left and now came back. Now we are faced with a situation that’s different – in some ways better and in some ways worse. But we are faced with a very complex and difficult situation that we’ll solve,” he said.
On the likelihood of getting a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, Mr Trump said: “We are dealing with a lot of people, and we have steps to go yet, as you know, and maybe those steps go forward, and maybe they don’t.
“We’re dealing with a very complex group of people, situation and people, but we have the right man. We have the right leader of Israel. He’s done a great job.”
Mr Trump was also asked whether he should get the Nobel Peace Prize.
He said: “They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize. It’s too bad. I deserve it, but they will never give it to me.”
A United States Postal Service worker pushes a cart of packages in New York City, on Dec. 4, 2023.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
The U.S. Postal Service said Tuesday it’s temporarily suspending all inbound packages from China and Hong Kong Posts.
The change is effective immediately and will remain “until further notice,” according to an alert posted to the agency’s website. Letters and large envelopes, referred to as “flats,” sent from China and Hong Kong won’t be impacted, the USPS said.
The announcement comes after President Donald Trump on Saturday signed executive orders imposing tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. Trump on Monday agreed to hold off on imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days, but the 10% tax on goods from China remains.
A provision in the orders eliminates a popular trade loophole, known as “de minimis,” which allows exporters to ship packages worth less than $800 into the U.S. duty free.
Chinese e-commerce firms, including Shein and PDD Holdings‘ Temu, have relied on the de minimis loophole as a way to bypass tariffs, and keep prices low.