Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the decision to add or subtract from a team is usually made by the standings.
Every year, however, there are bubble teams that are close to the playoff race but haven’t necessarily proved themselves in the win/loss column, leaving their front offices with a tougher decision to make.
ESPN has identified eight such teams, and with the Aug. 1 deadline exactly two weeks away, time is running out.
“They’re really making decisions the last weekend before the trade deadline,” Philadelphia Phillies president Dave Dombrowski said. “You wait as long as you can.
“You always want to make the playoffs because once you make it, we know anything can happen. However, and I’m just speaking for me, you have to be realistic with yourself. Do you have a club that’s good enough to advance, or in your heart, do you really not feel that way? It’s an important distinction.”
Adding to the challenge this season is the fact that the first-place team in the AL Central is hovering around .500, while the last-place team in the AL East is six games over. That will undoubtedly lead to varying degrees of going for it or electing to trade away veterans. And, according to Dombrowski, it makes it even more important for front-office decision-makers to understand their own team’s circumstances rather than relying just on a number of games they trail in the standings.
“Every market is different,” he said. “Every owner is different. Every team is different. You’re not the unilateral decision-maker. What happens if you’re with a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 10 years? That can be huge. That can be different than a team that’s in it all the time but is having a down year.”
With all that in mind, ESPN employed the services of a current MLB assistant general manager (whose team is not on the bubble) to help decide the fate of our eight bubble teams. Here’s his take.
In our exec’s words: The Twins could use help against left-handed pitching, but mostly they need to be healthy. If their best players act like it, they can make a run, but there’s no need to trade away their best prospects.
In our exec’s words: The Guardians simply aren’t going to replace injured starters Shane Bieber or Cal Quantrill (or Triston McKenzie) with blockbuster deals. If they get healthy, they’ll have a shot. They stood pat last year and won the division easily.
“We’re a small-market team,” GM Mike Chernoff said. “Unlike some other places, where you’re constantly thinking ‘How do we go for it in the moment,’ we have to be thinking about how do we sustain our competitiveness.
“You’ve seen over the years, we’ve tried to thread the needle in how we do it. Thankfully it’s been successful in the past.”
In our exec’s words: When it comes to Shohei Ohtani, the Angels won’t show their hand until the last minute. If not Ohtani — or in addition to him — others will be moved.
“With Mike Trout out, it’s made their decision easier,” another executive added. “It would have been a lot tougher to trade Ohtani if [Trout] wasn’t hurt. We’ll see.”
Needs: Hitting, especially an offensive upgrade at second base
In our exec’s words: This is another team whose best players simply have to show up — including Julio Rodriguez. But that doesn’t mean the Mariners should stand pat. Offensive production at both second base and designated hitter has been a problem.
In our exec’s words: The Tigers might work around the edges with their future in mind, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris is new on the job. He’s likely not in go-for-it mode, but he doesn’t have to do a major sell-off either.
“On balance if a team is three to five games back, more than they used to, you’ll see teams trying to hang in there,” another executive added.
In our exec’s words: The Mets can always dip back into free agency during the winter. Sending out feelers for any of their veterans, including Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, makes sense.
“They’re not winning this year,” another executive said. “I’m not sure if Steve Cohen can be convinced of it, but I am.”
It’s been a weird year for them, but Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger are about as good as it gets if they’re on the market. Maybe the Cubs will stand pat, thinking Cincinnati will come back to the pack. But Milwaukee will be tough.
“At the end of the day, you’re making a decision around this year’s playoff odds and future years’ playoff odds,” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said. “The exact record doesn’t matter if you get it down to that granular level, but it doesn’t feel very comfortable being under .500 and in a supercompetitive position.
“There’s playoff odds, and then there’s World Series odds. I don’t think there’s much history of teams being under .500 winning the World Series.”
In our exec’s words: When has Padres general manager A.J. Preller ever stood pat? This might be the year. There’s no way the Padres can add again — not with a depleted farm system and their place in the standings — but there’s no reason to trade away any of their major players either. Maybe they can make a second-half run, but there’s always next year.
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Purdue running back Devin Mockobee will miss the rest of his final college season after undergoing ankle surgery late last week, coach Barry Odom announced Monday.
Mockobee finishes his career as the fourth-leading rusher in Boilermakers history with 2,987 yards, trailing Mike Alstott, Kory Sheets and Otis Armstrong, a College Football Hall of Famer. Mockobee also ranks in the school’s top 10 in carries with 630 and career 100-yard games with nine.
Odom said Mockobee injured his ankle late in an Oct. 25 loss to Rutgers. He was ruled out of last weekend’s 21-16 loss at No. 21 Michigan following Friday’s surgery.
“We were hoping we would get a little bit better news after they did that procedure on his ankle, but unfortunately, the injury he sustained, he’s played his last game here,” Odom said. “I sure hate that because he is such a wonderful young man, a great leader of this program and a great representative of Purdue University. The things he poured into this program and university since I’ve been here, he will go down as one of the really enjoyable, great guys I’ve had a chance to coach. We’ll be connected forever, and I know this place means a lot to him.”
Losing this season’s leading rusher couldn’t come at a worse time for the Boilermakers (2-7, 0-6 Big Ten). They are mired in a six-game losing streak and remain one of four winless teams in league play. Purdue’s next chance to snap a school-record 15-game losing streak in conference games comes Saturday when it hosts No. 1 Ohio State (8-0, 5-0).
Antonio Harris started against Michigan then rotated with Malachi Thomas. Harris finished with 11 carries for 54 yards and one touchdown while Thomas had 15 carries for 68 yards. Malachi Singleton, a quarterback, also finished with six carries for 24 yards.
Odom did not say whether he would follow a similar game plan against the Buckeyes.
Mockobee joined the Boilermakers as a walk-on from Boonville, Indiana, but quickly emerged as their top rusher in 2022.
He set school freshman records by rushing for 968 yards and posting four 100-yard games while scoring nine times for the Big Ten West Division champions. After losing the Big Ten championship game to the Wolverines, first-time head coach Ryan Walters gave the 6-foot, 202-pound rusher a scholarship.
But Mockobee struggled with fumbles in 2023, starting just four games and finishing with 811 yards and six TD runs. He rebounded by starting all 12 games in 2024 and producing 687 yards rushing and four scores. He had a team-high 521 yards rushing and 4 TD runs in 8 games this season before getting injured.
Mockobee finished his career with 86 receptions for 839 yards and 3 touchdowns and the only completed pass of his career was a TD pass earlier this season.
Shwetha Surendran is a reporter in ESPN’s investigative and enterprise unit.
The NCAA sent a letter to Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets on college basketball and football, expressing its concern about the company’s “commitment to contest integrity and the protection of contest participants,” according to a copy of the letter obtained by ESPN.
In the letter, dated Oct. 30, NCAA chief legal officer Scott Bearby asked Kalshi how it monitors collegiate sports markets for integrity concerns and activity by prohibited customers, who it considers a prohibited customer, whether it will report integrity concerns to the NCAA and whether the company will cooperate with NCAA investigations.
“We welcome Kalshi’s stance on its efforts to protect the integrity of NCAA competitions and to reduce instances of abuse and harassment directed at student-athletes and other participants,” Bearby wrote.
The NCAA also asked if Kalshi would ban prediction markets similar to prop bets, which the company began offering this fall.
Prop betting markets, Bearby noted in the letter, heighten “the risk of integrity and harassment concerns.” In March last year, NCAA president Charlie Baker called for a ban on prop bets on college athletes in states with legal sports wagering.
The NCAA also asked Kalshi in the letter to review language on its website that the NCAA says implies a relationship between them.
“Kalshi has robust market integrity provisions required by our status as a federally licensed financial exchange,” a Kalshi spokesperson said in a statement to ESPN. “We value the NCAA’s feedback and are working on adjusting the language on our site. We are currently reviewing and addressing their additional requests.”
Prediction markets like Kalshi have emerged over the past year and are competing with traditional sportsbooks in the betting market. Kalshi is battling multiple lawsuits by state gambling regulators, who allege that the company is violating state laws by offering event contracts that mimic sports bets. Kalshi argues that it does not fall under state jurisdiction and is instead regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a federal agency.
In March, Kalshi announced a partnership with IC360, an integrity monitor used by many collegiate and professional leagues.
The NCAA has faced an increasing number of alleged betting violations by players in recent years. In September, the NCAA announced that a Fresno State men’s basketball player had manipulated his performance for gambling purposes and conspired with two other players in a prop betting scheme. In total, the association has opened investigations into potential betting violations by approximately 30 current or former men’s basketball players.
CORAL GABLES, Fla. — Miami has asked the Atlantic Coast Conference for clarity on a number of officiating decisions made in its loss this past weekend to SMU, including a critical 15-yard penalty in the final moments of regulation.
Miami lost the game, 26-20. The Hurricanes, who were as high as No. 2 in the AP Top 25 last month, have dropped two of their last three games and are now ranked No. 18.
Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal said Miami has not gotten an answer from the ACC. It’s unclear if any explanations will be coming.
“Certainly, we’re waiting what the response is, as well as on the roughing the passer one which we certainly don’t agree with,” Cristobal said Monday. “But at this point in time, the best we can do is turn it in and hope for a better result next time.”
The Hurricanes’ Marquise Lightfoot was called for unnecessary roughness against SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings with about a minute left in the fourth quarter, giving the Mustangs 15 yards and a first down. Miami had called time out just before the fourth-and-9 play was snapped, and the Hurricanes argued to no avail that Lightfoot did not hear the whistle.
Replays showed that Lightfoot, who did make contact with Jennings, tried to hold the SMU quarterback up after apparently realizing the play was dead.
That penalty gave SMU the ball on the Miami 37, and the Mustangs went on to kick an overtime-forcing field goal.
Miami also was incensed about how a pass interference flag that would have aided the Hurricanes was picked up, and how officials missed a Hurricanes receiver getting tackled in the end zone on a play that wound up as a Miami interception in overtime.
Miami was called for 12 penalties in the game for 96 yards, compared with four by SMU for 40 yards. The eight-penalty differential tied Miami’s biggest of the season; it had 13 penalties compared with five by Florida State when those teams played in Tallahassee last month.