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Selby in Yorkshire, Somerton in the south west and Uxbridge in the London suburbs: from rural to town, from north to south – the three by-elections up this Thursday will tell a bigger story of the state of our politics, with records up for grabs.

In these three seats – and the prospect of at least two more additional by-elections to come in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – there is so much trepidation for all of those politicians in play, but undoubtedly in the spotlight is the struggling prime minister, Rishi Sunak.

For a governing party, mid-term elections are never comfortable, but this particular set could cast the dye on his troubled premiership. Three by-elections in one day from a disparate set of battlegrounds and the Tories are bracing to lose all three.

That would make Mr Sunak a record breaker in unwelcome ways. He’d be first PM since Labour’s Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three by-elections in a single day and he’d suffer the ignominy of being the PM that saw Labour overturn the biggest Tory majority in a by-election on record, should it flip a 20,137 majority to win Selby. A lot is at stake.

Read more: Everything you need to know about this week’s votes in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton

Labour win in Selby would be ‘totemic’

Labour say Selby hangs in the balance, while one senior Tory – not trying to spin – tells me that while Conservative Campaign Headquarters thinks there’s a chance the Tories will hold on in Selby, they think the party will lose all three.

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“We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward and they are stuck managing defeat,” says one former cabinet minister. “[Sunak’s] an unlucky general. Every time he makes a announcement something else blows up, now they are working on the hope that they only have one term in opposition.”

But Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

Labour sources agree that losing Selby would be “totemic”, not just because Starmer would break a record, giving him even more momentum into a general election, but because of the psychology of what it does to Tory MPs.

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Why are these by-elections important?

Labour are touchy that the Conservatives have turned holding Selby into a victory given that the swing required to come even close to taking this seat in a general election – 17.9 per cent – is way beyond the swing Sir Keir needs to secure to win at the next general election.

“For Labour, I think expectation is that we will win Uxbridge and have to explain it if we don’t win,” says one senior Labour insider. “I think what is ludicrous is if people criticise us for not winning Selby. There are far too many Tory voters there, so if we take it will be big historically.

“But actually, it will be extraordinary if we run it close given the majority. The difference between losing by 10 and winning by 10 will be a big deal in terms of how the media cover it, but a strong second place puts us on track for winning it [with redrawn boundaries] at the general election.”

‘I think they are just running us into the ground’

Talk to Westminster insiders and the mood is that Somerton & Frome in the south west with a 19,000 Tory majority will go back to the Lib Dems. Uxbridge has been made more difficult to gauge due to the very live row about the Ultra Low Emission Zone air tariff being introduced by Labour mayor Sadiq Khan, which the Tories have grabbed to attack their opponents.

But when we visited Uxbridge this week, the overwhelming view from voters – even Conservative supporters – was for change.

Laura, an NHS nurse on maternity leave, told me that she didn’t believe the Conservatives could hold the seat.

“It can’t continue like this. I mean, it’s been a long time coming and I think they are just running us into the ground it seems.”

Anu, a Boris Johnson backer, and his partner Bijal, told me they were also considering going back to Labour having supported Mr Johnson in the past. “I think they’ve got quite a good chance,” Bijal told me. “We’re thinking, should we, should we flick the switch and go back to Labour?”

Meanwhile Mo, a hairdresser with her own salon just off the high street, was a Johnson backer, but now wants change as she struggles to keep her two-decade old business above water. “My shop was always full, but now we have to give more, people don’t know whether to spend their money.”

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What is a by-election?

Both Labour and the Tories tell me that they are picking up “real anger’ on the doorstep in Selby. One senior Conservative told me canvassing was like a “bin fire” with traditionally Conservative voters telling them they were not going to turn out, while a Labour source says the Tories have nothing to offer core or swing voters on the doorstep.

“There’s a cost of living crisis, taxes are up, none of the five pledges are being hit,” says one senior figure. “In Uxbridge, ULEZ at least gives some reason for voters to mobilise.

“Outside of that, what do they have to offer after 14 years? Cost of living crisis, high inflation, high interest rates, chaos at the borders, a broken NHS, sewage in our rivers and then you ask voters to give you another chance?”

‘Warriors against complacency’

For Labour, Thursday is another stepping stone on Sir Keir’s path to power. Whether he takes one or two of these seats – not winning any is not an option – he will frame this as another staging post to a Labour government.

The question really for Labour is whether they can call this a Blairite win. Three of the top four swings for Labour occurred before Tony Blair became PM, in by-elections in 1994, 1996, 1997. If Labour do win Selby then it would be allow Starmer to claim his party is performing at a level not seen since the Blair era.

They are taking nothing for granted, with one senior Starmer adviser telling me this week that the Labour leader describes himself and the inner team as “warriors against complacency”.

The latest symbol of his discipline was the decision to maintain the two child limit for child benefit, which sparked consternation within the party. “We want to fix problems to Tory benefit system and address child poverty but the country can’t afford it,” explains one senior insider.

“We can’t spend money we don’t have and that means taking tough choices. It’s helpful to have this out there before the National Policy Forum, where people think we are 20 points ahead and we have this big lead and we can do all sorts of things and that is toxic thinking, that is what loses elections.”

Labour insiders keep talking to me about the mis-steps in the 1992 general election campaign, when then shadow chancellor John Smith’s mini-budget said the better off would pay for higher pensions and child benefits. The plan blew up, spectacularly, in his face, lending itself to the Tories’ slogan ‘Labour’s tax bombshell’ as John Major edged victory. There will be no re-run of that. “We are going to do nothing to lose focus or discipline.”

Losing Uxbridge would hurt the Tories, but with a majority of around 7,000, a defeat here is not worse than other defeats in this parliament. Selby is another matter. If it turns red, the psychological damage to Mr Sunak and his party will be immense.

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Welfare concessions should give people ‘peace of mind’, says Wes Streeting

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Welfare concessions should give people 'peace of mind', says Wes Streeting

Wes Streeting has suggested he is confident the government will now win a crunch vote on welfare cuts after Sir Keir Starmer made a number of concessions to prevent a damaging rebellion.

The health secretary told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the alterations to the controversial welfare bill meant those in receipt of benefits now had “peace of mind”.

Asked whether he was confident the government would now win a vote on the reforms scheduled for Tuesday, Mr Streeting said: “Yes.

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“I think the changes that were made this week have put us in a much better position, not just on the vote on Tuesday, but on the substance of the package – because as a result of the changes, it means anyone watching this morning who’s in receipt of PIP, Personal Independence Payments, now has the peace of mind of knowing that their situation is protected.”

It comes after the prime minister carried out the most significant U-turn of his premiership at the end of the week in order to quell a growing rebellion over his welfare package.

More than 120 Labour MPs had signalled they were prepared to vote down the bill next week after they signed an amendment that would have stopped its progress through parliament – citing concerns about the impact on the most vulnerable and the lack of proper consultation with disabled groups.

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The scale of the rebellion – and the fact it spanned all wings of the party – alarmed Downing Street and led to Sir Keir making a number of changes to diffuse the anger.

Originally, the bill set out to tighten the eligibility criteria for PIP – money that is given to people, some of whom are in work, who have extra care or mobility needs as a result of a disability.

People who claim it are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, which influences how much they will receive.

Currently claimants need to score a minimum of eight points across a range of tasks to qualify for the daily living element (there is a mobility element that is not affected by the plans). Under the new rules people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify.

However, the changes made by Sir Keir mean existing PIP claimants will now be exempted from the stricter new criteria.

Alterations to Universal Credit, another type of benefit, mean that the health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications, as opposed to existing ones.

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What are the concessions to the welfare bill – and will MPs back it?
Welfare has been Starmer’s most damaging U-turn yet

Mr Streeting declined to say whether he thought those who decide to vote against the bill should lose the party whip, which would force them to sit as an independent MP in the Commons.

He said it was “not my decision”, but added that there was an “expectation that Labour MPs vote for the whip”.

In a series of interviews over the weekend, the prime minister acknowledged there had been some mishandling of the welfare debate and said he was “heavily focused” on world affairs before he was forced to U-turn on his welfare bill.

In a piece in The Sunday Times, Sir Keir said he was occupied with the G7 and NATO summits and the escalating tensions in the Middle East for much of the past two weeks.

“Getting it right is more important than ploughing on with a package which doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome,” he said, adding that all the decisions made were his and that “I take ownership of them”.

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PM and ministers now admit welfare reforms went too far

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PM and ministers now admit welfare reforms went too far

It was only 10 days ago that embattled Welfare Secretary Liz Kendall, trying to convince MPs to back her reforms, said ministers were “firm in our convictions”.

People on Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and universal credit were too often being “written off”, while the welfare bill was becoming unsustainable.

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After an unprecedented rebellion by Labour MPs forced the prime minister into a significant retreat, today sees an interesting shift in those convictions.

Ms Kendall’s colleague Wes Streeting, who was drafted onto calls with angry backbenchers, tells Sky News he didn’t want disabled people in his constituency surgeries on a Friday, telling him they were worse off when that was not the intention.

This is exactly what many Labour MPs and disability groups were arguing was inevitable if current claimants were stripped of their benefits.

Sir Keir Starmer, in a series of Sunday newspaper interviews in which he reflects on mistakes, says he now believes there was no point ploughing ahead with something which “doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome”.

Read more:
Supermarkets being told to cut shoppers’ calories in obesity crackdown
What are the concessions to the welfare bill – and will MPs back it?

Having rushed forward these reforms to save £5bn in the spending review, it now seems ministers are admitting the package needed more thought.

The welfare bill is rising sharply, and many voters broadly support the idea of tackling it.

But even if the draft legislation, which will affect new benefit claimants only, is voted through (and that’s still an “if'”, with dozens of Labour MPs still weighing it up), this debacle – for many MPs at least – goes to the heart of whose side the government is on.

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Supermarkets being told to cut shoppers’ calories in obesity crackdown is not ‘nanny statism’, says Streeting

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Supermarkets being told to cut shoppers' calories in obesity crackdown is not 'nanny statism', says Streeting

The health secretary has told Sky News the government’s plans to tackle obesity by introducing a health food standard for supermarkets are a “world-first approach” and not “nanny statism”.

As part of an initiative aimed at taking some pressure off the NHS, food retailers and manufacturers will “make the healthy choice the easy choice” for customers in the UK, which has the third-highest adult obesity levels in Europe.

Supermarkets will be required to report sales data and those that fail to hit targets could face financial penalties, suggested Nesta, the innovation agency which initially developed the policy.

Speaking on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, Wes Streeting said: “Instead of traditional nanny statism, where we regulate more heavily on price or marketing on what’s sold, we’re taking a world-first approach, which is working with supermarkets using data they already collect about the nutritional value of their shopping baskets and shopping trolleys, the average shop.

“We’re going to work with them to reduce the amount of unhealthy food in trolleys and baskets by setting targets on the healthy value of your shopping trolleys and baskets.”

He said if obese people cut their calorie intake “by about 216 calories a day – the equivalent of a bottle of fizzy coke, we’d halve obesity”.

“We’ve got one in five kids leaving primary school with obesity, it’s costing the NHS £11bn a year, and obesity has doubled since the 1990s,” he added.

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He also said: “If we reduce calorie intake in this country by just 50 calories a day, that would lift 340,000 children out of obesity.”

Mr Streeting said supermarkets will decide through the combination of where they put their products, how they do price promotions, and what products they choose to put on the shelves.

“They will work with us to make sure that we nudge people in the right direction, without any of us even noticing,” he added.

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Businesses will be free to choose how to implement the new healthy food standard, which aims to make their customers’ average shopping healthier.

Measures could include reformulating products and tweaking recipes, changing shop layouts, offering discounts on healthy foods, or changing loyalty schemes to promote healthier options.

Obesity is one of the root causes of diabetes, heart disease and cancer.

The new scheme, announced on Sunday by the Department for Health and Social Care, is part of the forthcoming 10-Year Health Plan, through which the government is seeking to shift from sickness to prevention to alleviate the burden on the NHS.

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An ‘important step’

Michelle Mitchell, Cancer Research UK’s chief executive, said: “Businesses can play a major role in supporting people to make healthy choices, and this important step could help to reduce rising obesity rates.

“Being overweight or obese is the second biggest cause of cancer in the UK, and is linked with 13 different types of the disease.

“The UK government must introduce further bold preventative policies in both the upcoming 10-year Health Plan and National Cancer Plan, so that more lives can be saved from cancer.”

A Tesco store and sign. Pic: iStock
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Tesco is among the supermarkets which have welcomed the government’s announcement. Pic: iStock

Some of the UK’s biggest supermarkets appear to have reacted positively to plans for a new standard of healthy food, with Ken Murphy, Tesco Group CEO, saying: “All food businesses have a critical part to play in providing good quality, affordable and healthy food.

“At Tesco, we have measured and published our own healthier food sales for a number of years now – we believe it is key to more evidence-led policy and better-targeted health interventions.

“That’s why we have called for mandatory reporting for all supermarkets and major food businesses and why we welcome the government’s announcement on this.

“We look forward to working with them on the detail of the Healthy Food Standard and its implementation by all relevant food businesses.”

Simon Roberts, chief executive of Sainsbury’s, said: “We’re passionate about making good food joyful, accessible and affordable for everyone and have been championing the need for mandatory health reporting, across the food industry for many years.

“Today’s announcement from government is an important and positive step forward in helping the nation to eat well.

“We need a level playing field across the entirety of our food sector for these actions to have a real and lasting impact.”

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