‘We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward’: Tories face prospect of a triple by-election defeat

Published

2 years ago

July 19, 2023

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Selby in Yorkshire, Somerton in the south west and Uxbridge in the London suburbs: from rural to town, from north to south – the three by-elections up this Thursday will tell a bigger story of the state of our politics, with records up for grabs.

In these three seats – and the prospect of at least two more additional by-elections to come in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – there is so much trepidation for all of those politicians in play, but undoubtedly in the spotlight is the struggling prime minister, Rishi Sunak.

For a governing party, mid-term elections are never comfortable, but this particular set could cast the dye on his troubled premiership. Three by-elections in one day from a disparate set of battlegrounds and the Tories are bracing to lose all three.

That would make Mr Sunak a record breaker in unwelcome ways. He’d be first PM since Labour’s Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three by-elections in a single day and he’d suffer the ignominy of being the PM that saw Labour overturn the biggest Tory majority in a by-election on record, should it flip a 20,137 majority to win Selby. A lot is at stake.

Labour win in Selby would be ‘totemic’

Labour say Selby hangs in the balance, while one senior Tory – not trying to spin – tells me that while Conservative Campaign Headquarters thinks there’s a chance the Tories will hold on in Selby, they think the party will lose all three.

“We’re in the death throes and I can’t quite see a way forward and they are stuck managing defeat,” says one former cabinet minister. “[Sunak’s] an unlucky general. Every time he makes a announcement something else blows up, now they are working on the hope that they only have one term in opposition.”

But Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

Labour sources agree that losing Selby would be “totemic”, not just because Starmer would break a record, giving him even more momentum into a general election, but because of the psychology of what it does to Tory MPs.

Labour are touchy that the Conservatives have turned holding Selby into a victory given that the swing required to come even close to taking this seat in a general election – 17.9 per cent – is way beyond the swing Sir Keir needs to secure to win at the next general election.

“For Labour, I think expectation is that we will win Uxbridge and have to explain it if we don’t win,” says one senior Labour insider. “I think what is ludicrous is if people criticise us for not winning Selby. There are far too many Tory voters there, so if we take it will be big historically.

“But actually, it will be extraordinary if we run it close given the majority. The difference between losing by 10 and winning by 10 will be a big deal in terms of how the media cover it, but a strong second place puts us on track for winning it [with redrawn boundaries] at the general election.”

‘I think they are just running us into the ground’

Talk to Westminster insiders and the mood is that Somerton & Frome in the south west with a 19,000 Tory majority will go back to the Lib Dems. Uxbridge has been made more difficult to gauge due to the very live row about the Ultra Low Emission Zone air tariff being introduced by Labour mayor Sadiq Khan, which the Tories have grabbed to attack their opponents.

But when we visited Uxbridge this week, the overwhelming view from voters – even Conservative supporters – was for change.

Laura, an NHS nurse on maternity leave, told me that she didn’t believe the Conservatives could hold the seat.

“It can’t continue like this. I mean, it’s been a long time coming and I think they are just running us into the ground it seems.”

Anu, a Boris Johnson backer, and his partner Bijal, told me they were also considering going back to Labour having supported Mr Johnson in the past. “I think they’ve got quite a good chance,” Bijal told me. “We’re thinking, should we, should we flick the switch and go back to Labour?”

Meanwhile Mo, a hairdresser with her own salon just off the high street, was a Johnson backer, but now wants change as she struggles to keep her two-decade old business above water. “My shop was always full, but now we have to give more, people don’t know whether to spend their money.”

Both Labour and the Tories tell me that they are picking up “real anger’ on the doorstep in Selby. One senior Conservative told me canvassing was like a “bin fire” with traditionally Conservative voters telling them they were not going to turn out, while a Labour source says the Tories have nothing to offer core or swing voters on the doorstep.

“There’s a cost of living crisis, taxes are up, none of the five pledges are being hit,” says one senior figure. “In Uxbridge, ULEZ at least gives some reason for voters to mobilise.

“Outside of that, what do they have to offer after 14 years? Cost of living crisis, high inflation, high interest rates, chaos at the borders, a broken NHS, sewage in our rivers and then you ask voters to give you another chance?”

‘Warriors against complacency’

For Labour, Thursday is another stepping stone on Sir Keir’s path to power. Whether he takes one or two of these seats – not winning any is not an option – he will frame this as another staging post to a Labour government.

The question really for Labour is whether they can call this a Blairite win. Three of the top four swings for Labour occurred before Tony Blair became PM, in by-elections in 1994, 1996, 1997. If Labour do win Selby then it would be allow Starmer to claim his party is performing at a level not seen since the Blair era.

They are taking nothing for granted, with one senior Starmer adviser telling me this week that the Labour leader describes himself and the inner team as “warriors against complacency”.

The latest symbol of his discipline was the decision to maintain the two child limit for child benefit, which sparked consternation within the party. “We want to fix problems to Tory benefit system and address child poverty but the country can’t afford it,” explains one senior insider.

“We can’t spend money we don’t have and that means taking tough choices. It’s helpful to have this out there before the National Policy Forum, where people think we are 20 points ahead and we have this big lead and we can do all sorts of things and that is toxic thinking, that is what loses elections.”

Labour insiders keep talking to me about the mis-steps in the 1992 general election campaign, when then shadow chancellor John Smith’s mini-budget said the better off would pay for higher pensions and child benefits. The plan blew up, spectacularly, in his face, lending itself to the Tories’ slogan ‘Labour’s tax bombshell’ as John Major edged victory. There will be no re-run of that. “We are going to do nothing to lose focus or discipline.”

Losing Uxbridge would hurt the Tories, but with a majority of around 7,000, a defeat here is not worse than other defeats in this parliament. Selby is another matter. If it turns red, the psychological damage to Mr Sunak and his party will be immense.

Politics

Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Published

4 hours ago

April 26, 2025

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Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Crypto investor sentiment has seen a significant recovery from global tariff concerns, but analysts warn that the market’s structural weaknesses may still result in downside momentum during periods of weekend illiquidity.

Risk appetite appeared to return among crypto investors this week after US President Donald Trump adopted a softer tone, saying that import tariffs on Chinese goods may “come down substantially.”

However, the improved investor sentiment “does not guarantee that Bitcoin will avoid volatility over the weekend,” analysts from Bitfinex exchange told Cointelegraph:

“Sentiment improvements reduce fragility, but they do not eliminate structural risks like thin weekend liquidity.”

“Historically, weekends remain vulnerable to sharp moves — especially when open interest is high and market depth is low,” the analysts said, adding that unexpected macroeconomic news can still increase volatility during low liquidity periods.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a near 11% recovery during the past week, but its rally has previously been limited by Sunday liquidity dynamics.

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Sunday, April 6, despite initially decoupling from the US stock market’s $3.5 trillion drop on April 4 after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs may affect the economy and raise inflation.

The correction was exacerbated by the lack of weekend liquidity and the fact that Bitcoin was the only large liquid asset available for de-risking, industry watchers told Cointelegraph.

“While improved sentiment creates a more stable foundation, cryptocurrency markets are still susceptible to rapid movements during periods of reduced trading volume,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of RedStone blockchain oracle firm.

“The sentiment recovery provides some cushioning, but traders should remain cautious as weekend liquidity constraints can still amplify price movements regardless of the current market mood,” he told Cointelegraph.

Crypto investors may have “maxed out on tariff-related fears”

Cryptocurrency markets may have priced in the full extent of tariff-related concerns, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

“It feels like we’ve maxed out on tariff-related fear,” she told Cointelegraph, adding:

“While many remain uncertain about where things are headed over the next month or so, it also seems like markets were just waiting for the slightest signal that we’re back in the game.”

“Whether the rally is sustainable depends on whether we can break through previous resistance levels, at least in isolation. It could have legs, as markets now seem to believe there’s a ‘Trump put’ under equities, the US dollar and US Treasurys,” Barthere added, warning of more potential volatility amid the upcoming negotiations.

Nansen previously predicted a 70% chance that crypto markets will bottom and start a recovery by June, but highlighted that the timing will depend on the outcome of tariff negotiations.

The tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach a trade agreement with China, which may be the “big prize” for Trump’s administration, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.

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Politics

Deloitte predicts $4T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035

Published

8 hours ago

April 26, 2025

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Deloitte predicts T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035

Over $4 trillion worth of real estate could be tokenized on blockchain networks during the next decade, potentially offering investors greater access to property ownership opportunities, according to a new report.

The Deloitte Center for Financial Services predicts that over $4 trillion worth of real estate may be tokenized by 2035, up from less than $300 billion in 2024. The report, published April 24, estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 27%.

The $4 trillion of tokenized property is predicted to stem from the benefits of blockchain-based assets, as well as a structural shift across real estate and property ownership.

Deloitte predicts $4T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035 — *Global tokenized real estate value, growth predictions. Source: Deloitte*

“Real estate itself is undergoing transformation. Post-pandemic work-from-home trends, climate risk, and digitization have reshaped property fundamentals,” according to Chris Yin, co-founder of Plume Network, a blockchain built for real-world assets (RWAs).

“Office buildings are being repurposed into AI data centers, logistics hubs and energy-efficient residential communities,” Yin told Cointelegraph.

“Investors want targeted access to these modern use cases, and tokenization enables programmable, customizable exposure to such evolving asset profiles,” he said.

The uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs has boosted investor interest in the RWA tokenization sector, which involves minting financial products and tangible assets on a blockchain.

Both stablecoins and RWAs have attracted significant capital as safe-haven assets amid the global trade concerns, Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock, told Cointelegraph.

The tariff concerns also led tokenized gold volume to surpass $1 billion in trading volume on April 10, its highest level since March 2023 when a US banking crisis saw the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the voluntary liquidation of Silvergate Bank

Blockchain innovation could drive regulatory clarity

Growing RWA adoption may inspire a more welcoming stance from global regulators, Yin said.

“While regulation is a hurdle, regulation follows usage,” he explained, likening tokenization to Uber’s growth before widespread regulatory acceptance:

“Tokenization is similar — as demand increases, regulatory clarity will follow.”

He added that making tokenized products compliant with a wide range of international regulations is key to unlocking broader market access.

However, some industry watchers are skeptical about the benefits introduced by tokenized real estate.

“I don’t think tokenization should have its eyes directly set on real estate,” said Securitize chief operating officer Michael Sonnenshein at Paris Blockchain Week 2025.

“I’m sure there are all kinds of efficiencies that can be unlocked using blockchain technology to eliminate middlemen, escrow, and all kinds of things in real estate. But I think today, what the onchain economy is demanding are more liquid assets,” he added.

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Politics

Crypto banking rule withdrawal by Fed ‘not real progress’ — Senator Lummis

Published

9 hours ago

April 26, 2025

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Crypto banking rule withdrawal by Fed ‘not real progress’ — Senator Lummis

United States Senator Cynthia Lummis suggests the crypto industry may be celebrating too soon over the US Federal Reserve softening its crypto guidance for banks.

“The Fed withdrawing crypto guidance is just noise, not real progress,” Lummis said in an April 25 X post. Lummis called the Fed’s April 24 announcement — withdrawing its 2022 supervisory letter that had discouraged banks from engaging with crypto and stablecoin activities — “just lip service.”

Lummis’ tone was different from the rest of the crypto industry

Lummis, a pro-crypto advocate known for introducing the Bitcoin (BTC) Strategic Reserve Bill in July 2024, pointed out several flaws in the Fed’s announcement, even as Strategy founder Michael Saylor and crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano suggested it was a step forward for banks and crypto.

Cryptocurrencies, United States — *Source:* *Anthony Pompliano*

She argued that the Fed continues to “illegally flout the law on master accounts” and still relies on reputational risk in its bank supervision practices. It comes as the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation (FDIC) is working on a rule to stop examiners from considering reputational risk when reviewing a bank’s operations, according to a recent Bloomberg report.

Lummis also highlighted the Fed’s policy statement in Section 9(13), which hasn’t been withdrawn, stating that Bitcoin and digital assets are considered “unsafe and unsound.”

She also reiterated many of the same staff behind Operation Chokepoint 2.0 are still involved in crypto policy today.

“We are NOT fooled. The Fed assassinated companies within the industry and hurt American interests by stifling innovation and shuttering businesses. This fight is far from over.”

“I will continue to hold the Fed accountable until the digital asset industry gets more than a life jacket, Chair Powell — they need a fair shake,” Lummis said.

Custodia Bank founder and CEO Caitlin Long seemed to share a similar view to Lummis.

“THANK YOU for seeing this for what it is,” Long said.

However, many crypto executives praised the Fed’s announcement as a positive development for the industry. Saylor said in an April 25 X post that the Fed’s move means that “banks are now free to begin supporting Bitcoin.”

Anastasija Plotnikova, co-founder and CEO of blockchain regulatory firm Fideum, said the Fed’s decision “is a significant development, as it will simplify the path to institutional adoption.”

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