MLB Power Rankings: A battle atop the AL East
With All-Star week festivities in the rearview mirror, the second half of the 2023 season is off to a bang. MLB had a night of offense to remember on Tuesday, with 12 teams scoring double-digit runs — a level of offensive production not seen in 129 years.
Despite putting up 13 runs, the major league-leading Braves lost their third of four games since the All-Star break — before losing a fourth straight game Wednesday — in a 16-13 defeat by the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, the Orioles are coming off a series loss to the Dodgers and now face the Rays in a battle of the top two American League teams — one with major AL East implications, too, as a Tampa Bay loss and Baltimore win on Wednesday left the pair tied atop the division entering the four-game matchup.
Who will come out ahead as the division leader — and as the best team in the greater league? Where do all the other teams stand entering the second half of the season?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Second-half preview | Week 14 | Preseason rankings
Record: 61-33
Previous ranking: 1
Matt Olson had 77 RBIs through 93 games (through Tuesday), putting him on pace for 134. The franchise record is Hugh Duffy’s 145, set way back in 1894 — which is hardly an apples-to-apples comparison as the National League averaged 7.39 runs per game that season (and the Boston Beaneaters, as the Braves were then known, averaged more than nine runs per game). The modern record belongs to Eddie Mathews, who drove in 135 runs in 1953 for the Milwaukee Braves. The “Atlanta” record belongs to Gary Sheffield, who drove in 132 in 2003.
Minor cause for concern: Bryce Elder has allowed seven runs in back-to-back starts, getting knocked out in the fourth and third innings. He has a 5.44 ERA over his past eight starts. Max Fried is getting closer in his rehab and will throw 60 pitches in his next outing. — Schoenfield
Record: 60-39
Previous ranking: 2
The Rays’ slow slide accelerated over the last week when, after a second-straight loss to the Rangers on Tuesday, Tampa Bay was on pace to win fewer than 100 games for the first time all season. With a losing record in the 10-, 20- and 30-game windows, this can’t be dismissed as a mere slump — there are some trends in play as well.
Let’s take the 30-game window, in which Tampa Bay has gone 12-18, as an example. Part of it has been bad luck. The Rays “should” have won 16 games based on their run differential during that time. That they didn’t is in part a result of going 2-7 in one-run games. The bullpen has been excellent; only one other team has a better bullpen ERA during that time frame. The culprit is the injury-battered rotation. During those 30 games, Rays starters had a 5.07 ERA, ranking 25th in the majors. Well, Shane McClanahan is back from the injured list but, of course, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs are down for the season. The moral of all this: The Rays should be laser focused on bolstering the rotation from now through the trade deadline. — Doolittle
Record: 58-39
Previous ranking: 3
Bruce Bochy can make room on his mantle for manager of the year as the Rangers might end up with the best record in the American League and a No.1 seed in the postseason. There’s a long way to go, but their post-All-Star break performance has been stellar. A series sweep of the Guardians followed by a series win over the Rays has Texas positioned to potentially take over the top spot in the league.
The wins over Tampa Bay, in particular, were about as good as it gets. Both came via late-inning, run-scoring rallies including a walk-off on Monday. But the story of the Rangers is their pitching staff minus Jacob deGrom. Nathan Eovaldi garners most of the headlines, but Dane Dunning is having a breakout season. He held the Rays to five hits and two runs over seven innings on Monday, reducing his ERA to 2.82. It’s hard to imagine the average baseball fan would know Dunning ranks in the top five in the league in that category. — Rogers
Record: 58-37
Previous ranking: 7
The Orioles owned a share of first place in the AL East for just one day — after their season-opening win back on March 30. Since then, they, along with the rest of the division, have been chasing Tampa Bay. Despite the Rays’ historically fast start, the Orioles’ biggest deficit has been just 6½ games, but they fairly recently hit that nadir — back at the beginning of July.
Baltimore’s slow crawl towards the lead since then became a sprint this week. The O’s actually passed the Rays in the loss column, though a disparity in games played still kept the Rays in first. Baltimore has been as many as 22 games over .500. While its contention last season at this time was uncertain, there is no ambiguity this time around. Whether you look at 30-game or 50-game rolling averages, this version of the O’s has been a consistent winner from the outset. The next couple of weeks leading up to the trade deadline will be awfully interesting. This is what Baltimore’s most loyal fans have been waiting for. — Doolittle
Record: 55-40
Previous ranking: 6
Julio Urias offered up a very encouraging sign to begin the second half, tossing six scoreless innings in a road start against the Mets on Friday night. But he followed that up by allowing four first-inning runs to the Orioles on Wednesday afternoon, an outing that didn’t see him record his first swing-and-miss until his 51st pitch. Urias’ up-and-down season continues. The Dodgers are undoubtedly in the market for starting pitching before the trade deadline — they have to be, given that Dustin May is out for the year, Clayton Kershaw is on the IL and Walker Buehler is coming back from Tommy John surgery — but the supply there is expected to be exceedingly limited. They probably won’t get very far if Urias doesn’t start performing like an ace again. — Gonzalez
Record: 53-43
Previous ranking: 4
The Astros have played under .500 against winning clubs this season, but they’ve been middle of the pack by that measure. They’ve only done that well because their pitching staff ranks in the top 10 in ERA against winning teams. The story has been very different for the hitters. Through Tuesday, Houston’s .792 OPS against losing teams is the sixth-best total in the majors, but against winners, the .691 OPS ranks 23rd. The disparity (101 points of OPS) is the third-largest in the majors, behind the Angels (133 points) and Pirates (123). The Astros have appeared in more than twice as many playoff games as any other AL club since 2015, so they know this better than anyone: That’s not going to play in October. — Doolittle
Record: 53-43
Previous ranking: 9
Toronto’s recent surge makes it the AL’s hottest club right now. Because that spree has coincided with the Rays’ downturn, suddenly Toronto looks poised to join Baltimore and Tampa Bay in a three-team scrum for the AL East crown. With the deadline approaching, count the Jays as one of the teams that ought to be mining for rotation help. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi have all been solid or better, and all are trending in the right direction. But after a five-walk/zero-strikeout performance by Alek Manoah in his last start, Toronto has reached the point where it can’t bank on him reverting to his 2022 Cy Young-like form. You don’t abandon Manoah of course, who remains a key aspect of the Blue Jays’ future, but some more depth in this spot would be a good idea. — Doolittle
Record: 54-42
Previous ranking: 11
Camilo Doval came out of the bullpen to record a save on Tuesday afternoon — then came out of the bullpen to do it again only a few hours later, becoming the first pitcher this season to record two saves on the same day (even though the first of those games was a makeup from Monday). It gave Doval a major league-leading 30 saves for the season and ran the Giants’ winning streak to seven games, keeping them in contention with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks for the top spot in the NL West. The emergence of their bullpen — which has the majors’ third-lowest ERA, fifth-lowest WHIP and fifth-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio since the start of June — has been a big reason why. — Gonzalez
Record: 52-43
Previous ranking: 12
The Phillies won four of their first five games coming out of the break, including taking three of four from the Padres. Bryce Harper ended his long home run drought (166 plate appearances) on Saturday, and Taijuan Walker won his seventh consecutive start — he’s 7-0 with a 1.84 ERA and .187 batting average allowed in that span. Harper continues to get pregame work at first base, although his debut at the position continues to get pushed back — maybe we’ll see him there this weekend. On the bad news front, top prospect Andrew Painter will now undergo Tommy John surgery after initially trying a conservative rehab program. The timing means he’ll likely miss all of next season, too, after not pitching in 2023. — Schoenfield
Record: 54-42
Previous ranking: 5
The D-backs lost eight of their first 11 games this month, a stretch that saw them slash just .210/.297/.326. Then they broke out for 16 runs in a wild back-and-forth game against Atlanta on Tuesday, getting multiple hits from five members of their lineup. The D-backs’ offense has proven to be good enough and deep enough to not be held in check for very long. But they’ll still need pitching before this year’s trade deadline if they hope to keep pace with the Dodgers and Giants in the NL West, both for the middle of their rotation and the back end of their bullpen. And they have the young players to get practically whatever they want. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-46
Previous ranking: 17
The Red Sox are well into an extended soft stretch in their schedule, one that has been at least partially responsible for their rise to within a game or two of the AL’s last playoff slot. (Which, in 2023, is also within a game or two of last place in the division.) The schedule from here on out is more rugged, especially the upcoming stretch against the Mets, Braves and Giants that takes them almost to the trade deadline. So, where does that leave lead exec Chaim Bloom in terms of his deadline approach?
Lately, Bloom’s comments to the media have been noncommittal — win between now and the end of July and Boston might look for pitching help, but lose and suddenly that approach would flip. At the very least, the Red Sox remain in position to make something of a season that hasn’t seen them higher than fourth place since early May. They’re a middle-of-the-road team, but that doesn’t mean they’re without opportunity. — Doolittle
Record: 53-43
Previous ranking: 14
Milwaukee flexed its muscles in two series wins over Cincinnati, both before and after the All-Star break. The sweep this past weekend was especially impressive as it included two shutouts — and the Brewers also shut out the Reds right before the break, too. All season, oddsmakers have pointed to the Brewers as the overwhelming favorite to win the NL Central, and they’re proving why right now. They have the best pitching staff and the best manager in the division. That might simply be enough to take home the title. — Rogers
Record: 53-45
Previous ranking: 10
With five straight losses coming out of the All-Star break to at least temporarily drop out of a wild-card position, there will be increased pressure on the Marlins to do something at the trade deadline. The bullpen lost four of those games, so adding some relief help may now be GM Kim Ng’s No. 1 priority. Will they be willing to add much payroll? As good as the Marlins had played heading into the All-Star break, the schedule really picks up starting July 31. Check out this slate of series: vs. Phillies, at Rangers, at Reds, vs. Yankees, vs. Astros, at Dodgers, at Padres. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-47
Previous ranking: 8
As a franchise, the Yankees own many of baseball’s single-season and aggregate team records. So would it be fitting if the Bombers emerged as the best last-place team in history? Well, if we’re going by won-lost records, that would be the case if the season ended now, as there has never been an above-.500 cellar dweller.
According to my latest simulations, the Yankees have about a 48% chance of finishing last despite an average win total of 84.4. This, along with the possibility of an AL Central champ with a losing record, is the seedy underbelly of the new everybody-plays-everybody scheduling formula that everybody seems to love. Unless MLB makes some tweaks, we probably should get used to this sort of thing. Anyway, suffice to say, if a last-place winning season is the ultimate fate of this year’s Yanks, it’s going to be zero solace for fans in the Bronx. — Doolittle
Record: 51-46
Previous ranking: 13
The Reds are losing when they score and when they don’t, as their skid hit a low point during a doubleheader loss to the Giants this week. But it was the post-All-Star break sweep by Milwaukee that really hurt — the Reds scored just three runs in three games, which included two shutouts. Perhaps their young roster wasn’t prepared coming out of the break or maybe they’re just regressing to the mean as many predicted. Cincinnati won’t mortgage its future at the deadline, but a pitching addition should help give it that year-ahead-of schedule chance at overtaking the Brewers. View it as a longer shot than just 10 days ago. — Rogers
Record: 50-47
Previous ranking: 15
The Twins have swept three-game series against bottom-feeding Oakland and Kansas City this month, while mostly struggling in the games they’ve played against better clubs. This has been a season-long trend. While it’s only natural that a club would do better against bad teams than good teams, the scale of the Twins’ disparity seems unusual.
Through Tuesday, Minnesota was 26-16 against sub-.500 teams but just 23-31 against everyone else. The hitters have seen virtually no disparity in performance based on quality of opponent. It’s been the pitchers: Minnesota has a 3.21 ERA against losing teams and 4.19 against everyone else. That doesn’t bode well for the playoffs, but of course the Twins have to get there first. With traits like this, it might make the quality of the remaining schedule more relevant for Minnesota than other teams. If that’s the case, it’s good news for Twins fans. Based on the remaining average quality of their opponents, only the White Sox and Cubs have an easier slate than the Twins. — Doolittle
Record: 47-48
Previous ranking: 18
The Mariners needed to get on a hot streak with 10 games at home coming out of the All-Star break, but that didn’t happen. They lost two of three to the Tigers and then lost 10-3 to the Twins on Tuesday, a game in which they scored three runs in the first inning despite getting two runners thrown out at home plate. If the Mariners can’t beat the Tigers and Twins at home, they can forget about making a run for the playoffs. As far as the trade deadline goes, the Mariners are straddling the line. No, they’re not going to trade Logan Gilbert or George Kirby as part of a Shohei Ohtani trade, and they may not add much at all. This is a clear case of improvement needing to come from within and a minor trade or two is hardly a solution. — Schoenfield
Record: 46-50
Previous ranking: 19
The Padres’ maddening inconsistency has already been on display in the early part of this second half. It began with them breezing past the Phillies on Friday. Then they lost three games in a span of two days, all of which they led at one point. Then they showed up in Toronto on Tuesday night and routed the Blue Jays on the strength of four home runs. The Padres haven’t had a winning record since May 10. Every time they creep close, they slip further back, only to get close again. Small shake-ups have already occurred, with Nelson Cruz and, more recently, Rougned Odor getting designated for assignment. If the Padres don’t show some consistency soon, much bigger changes might be afoot. — Gonzalez
Record: 49-48
Previous ranking: 16
The entire baseball world seems to be fantasizing about Ohtani on any number of other teams, but the Angels, at least for now, still seem focused on making their case to keep him. They began the week having lost 11 of 13 games, a precipitous fall that prompted the Ohtani talk in the first place. But then they swept a three-game series against the scuffling Yankees, and now they’re thinking about getting several of their injured players — Brandon Drury and Anthony Rendon in the near future, perhaps Mike Trout and Logan O’Hoppe not long thereafter — back into the lineup. They have the Pirates and Tigers next. If they take advantage of that soft spot in their schedule — before a brutal stretch of games against contenders — Ohtani might stay. If not, well … — Gonzalez
Record: 47-49
Previous ranking: 20
The front office has made it clear that in no way will they mortgage the future for some win-now trades, so don’t expect Cleveland to be too active at the deadline. It’s just not the way the Guardians operate, even if the AL Central remains up for grabs. The problem is Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill — their three best starters from last season — are all now on the IL. Indeed, given McKenzie has made just two starts and Quantrill is 2-6 with a 6.45 ERA, Cleveland is fortunate to be right there with the Twins.
Cool moment in Friday’s loss to the Rangers: Bo Naylor hit a two-run home run in the third inning and four batters later, his older brother, Josh Naylor, also hit a two-run homer. They became the fourth set of brothers to homer in the same inning for the same team, joining Justin and B.J. Upton (twice for the Braves in 2013), Cal and Billy Ripken (for the Orioles in 1990 and 1996) and Henry and Tommie Aaron (Braves, 1962). — Schoenfield
Record: 45-50
Previous ranking: 21
Amidst the disappointing season, a bright spot has been rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez, who homered twice on Tuesday to run his season line to .242/.303/.534 with 19 home runs (seven in July). That already places him second on the all-time list for most home runs by a 21-year-old catcher. We knew about the power potential, but the surprise has been his defense. He ranks in the 79th percentile in Statcast’s pitch framing metric, and he’s allowed just four passed balls. It’s an impressive package for such a young catcher — with areas to improve on (swing-and-miss rate, throwing accuracy). — Schoenfield
Record: 45-50
Previous ranking: 22
A critical, post-All-Star part of Chicago’s schedule didn’t start out well as it lost three of its first four games — all at home. While there’s still time ahead of the trade deadline — every game up to it, save their last one, is against sub-.500 teams — the Cubs are running down to the wire. If they do get to .500 (or better), it might put a pause on trading Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger. It would help if lefty Drew Smyly found his game again. His first nine starts produced a 2.50 ERA, but his last 10 have a 6.50 ERA attached to them. Inconsistency has been the name of the game for the Cubs this year — though they remain the only NL Central team with a positive run differential. — Rogers
Record: 43-53
Previous ranking: 23
There’s some life in St. Louis, as it finally got out of the cellar in the NL Central on Tuesday — but that could say more about the Pirates than the Cardinals. Jordan Montgomery is going to be a highly sought-after trade chip, with him peaking at the right time. He tossed another six good innings in a win over the Marlins this week, which helped produce a sparkling 1.17 ERA over his last five outings. He and Jack Flaherty are likely headed out of town. In fact, it would be a surprise if they weren’t on the move by Aug.1. — Rogers
Record: 43-52
Previous ranking: 26
After I asked everyone last week to imagine a world in which Detroit looks to add at the deadline, the Tigers went out and continued to hold their own. They remain in that five-to-six games behind zone that hardly clarifies their ongoing status. In fact, a wild 11-10 loss to the Royals on Tuesday left them 5-5 over their last 10, 10-10 over their last 20 and 15-15 over their last 30. Is that contention? In a division with a .500-ish leader … maybe? The good news is that the Tigers’ management does not seem anxious to punt on the season. President of baseball operations Scott Harris told the media last week that a hot streak could encourage the team to take a positive approach to the deadline. So … dream on. — Doolittle
Record: 42-54
Previous ranking: 24
The free fall that started about a month ago has continued after the break. Pittsburgh got swept by the Giants and then was hammered by the light-hitting Guardians who scored 21 runs in the first two games of the series. All-Star Mitch Keller looked anything but on Tuesday when he gave up eight runs on 10 hits, including two home runs. Quinn Priester‘s MLB debut the night before was only slightly better as he allowed seven runs on seven hits — also including two home runs. The 2019 first-round pick joined a rotation that now ranks 22nd in ERA after being in the top half of the league the first couple months of the season. Things have changed dramatically in Pittsburgh since then. — Rogers
Record: 40-57
Previous ranking: 25
The two-year nightmare that has been the current version of the White Sox is coming to an end. Since the 2021 All-Star break, Chicago has been a mediocre club despite making the playoffs that season. Lucas Giolito and possibly Lance Lynn will be traded by the Aug. 1 trade deadline, but the biggest question revolves around shortstop Tim Anderson. A change of scenery is in order, though with a team option for next year, it’s unclear when that move might happen. He’s been better lately, but he’s having a terrible overall year at the plate — it’s been over a calendar year since his last home run — and in the field. Would someone take a chance and play him at second base? It’s possible, but he needs a hot finish to the month. — Rogers
Record: 38-58
Previous ranking: 27
“We’re open for business,” GM Mike Rizzo announced during a press conference prior to Tuesday’s 17-3 loss to the Cubs. “We have a plan in place, we have a blueprint in place for this rebuild. We’re always open-minded and we’ll always be aggressive. That’s not to say we’re going to move everybody.”
Well, of course not: There are a limited number of Nationals players who will draw interest. Jeimer Candelario is the most obvious since he’s on an expiring deal. Teams will also ask about Lane Thomas, who has two more years of team control.
“I see Lane Thomas as having an All-Star first half of the season,” Rizzo said. “He’s got tools, he’s young and he’s a terrific player. If another team views him only as a part-time or bench player, we won’t have a deal. But if somebody views him as the way I view him and the way our staff views him, then we’d have a conversation.” — Schoenfield
Record: 37-59
Previous ranking: 28
The Rockies’ miserable season experienced a rare highlight over the weekend: a series win over the star-studded Yankees to begin the second half. It was sealed by none other than Chase Anderson, who entered his Sunday start with a 6.89 ERA but held the Aaron Judge-less Yankees scoreless through the first five innings. Later, Anderson said, “I want to be the starter that can stabilize the rotation.” Somebody has to. — Gonzalez
Record: 28-69
Previous ranking: 29
Let’s see … let’s give a Jordan Lyles update. He looked like he would improve to 2-11 after tossing six scoreless innings on Monday against the Tigers and leaving with a 2-0 lead. Except these are the Royals and the bullpen blew the lead, so Lyles got a no-decision. That leaves him with one victory in 18 starts. What kind of history is in the making here?
Seven pitchers have made at least 20 starts while winning exactly one game (not including Ryne Stanek, who made 27 starts as an opener for the Rays in 2019). Jordan Zimmermann started 23 games for the Tigers in 2019 and went 1-13. Homer Bailey made 20 starts for the Reds in 2018 and went 1-14. So this isn’t unprecedented territory for Lyles. The all-time “record” here: Jack Nabors went 1-20 for the 1916 Philadelphia A’s, making 30 starts. Oh, wait … I’ve just been informed that Zack Greinke is 1-9 in 18 starts. Enjoy the final two months, Royals fans! — Schoenfield
Record: 27-71
Previous ranking: 30
In the middle of what will go down as quite possibly the most depressing season in franchise history, the A’s received an encouraging sign for their future. It came on Tuesday, in the midst of a 3-0 win over the Red Sox, when Luis Medina, their electric 24-year-old right-hander, allowed only four baserunners and zero runs in 5⅔ innings. Medina entered that start with a 6.34 ERA. The A’s had implored him to take more command of his off-speed pitches to balance out his upper-90s fastball, and Medina did just that, incorporating all five of his pitches in what was by far his best major league outing yet. — Gonzalez
The final weekend of the MLB season is here — and there’s still plenty to play for!
In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers also taking home the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have locked up the NL East title, and the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched their fifth straight NL West title on Thursday. The New York Mets beat the Marlins on Saturday and, with the Cincinnati Reds playing on the Brewers later Saturday night, they’re (momentarily, at least) back in the lead in the NL wild-card race.
In the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays became the first AL team to secure a playoff spot and the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners joined them days later. While the Detroit Tigers clinched a postseason spot Saturday, in one the biggest twists of the 2025 season, the Cleveland Guardians have rocked the playoff picture with a September surge, emerging as a serious contender in the AL wild-card race and for the AL Central title.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who’s in?
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Sept. 13 and followed up by securing their third straight NL Central title. They earned a bye in the first round and are playing for the NL’s overall No. 1 seed.
The Phillies clinched a spot in the postseason on Sept. 14. With a win the following night, Philadelphia clinched the NL East title for the second straight year. On Wednesday, the Phils beat the Marlins to clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the NLDS.
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Sept. 17 and will be making their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018. With a win on Saturday, they clinched home-field advantage in their wild-card series with the Padres.
With a win Thursday over the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers clinched the NL West title for the 12th time in the past 13 years. They will be the No. 3 seed in the NL and host the No. 6 seed in the wild-card series.
The Blue Jays became the first AL team to secure a postseason berth with a with over the Royals on Sept. 21. They are currently tied with the Yankees for first place in the AL East — the division winner will earn a bye.
The Padres clinched their fourth postseason trip in six years with a walk-off win over the Brewers on Monday. They will travel to Chicago to meet the Cubs in the wild-card series.
The Yankees became the second AL team to clinch a playoff spot with a walk-off win over the White Sox on Tuesday. They are currently tied with the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East — the division winner will earn a bye.
The Mariners clinched their first postseason appearance since 2022 on Tuesday and, with a 9-2 win on Wednesday, won their first AL West crown since 2001. They earned a bye in the first round.
With a win against the Tigers on Friday, Boston clinched an AL Wild Card berth. They will be the road team in one wild-card series.
With a win in Boston on Saturday, Detroit clinched at least an AL Wild Card berth. They are still in play to win the AL Central.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
Upcoming clinch possibilities:
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The Guardians can clinch today with a win OR a loss by the Astros
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The Brewers can clinch the NL’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason today with a win OR a loss by the Phillies
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The Blue Jays can clinch the AL East and the AL’s #1 seed Sunday with a win OR a loss by the Yankees
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The Yankees can clinch the AL East and the AL’s #1 seed Sunday with a win AND a loss by the Blue Jays
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Tigers at (3) Guardians, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Tigers/Guardians vs. (2) Mariners, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Reds at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Reds/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Tiebreaker scenarios
AL East teams
Toronto Blue Jays
Win tiebreaker: Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians
New York Yankees
Win tiebreaker: Mariners
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Guardians, Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Win tiebreaker: Astros, Guardians, Yankees
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers
AL Central teams
Cleveland Guardians
Win tiebreaker: Astros, Tigers, Yankees, Blue Jays
Lose tiebreaker: Mariners, Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
Win tiebreaker: Red Sox, Astros
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians, Mariners
AL West teams
Seattle Mariners
Win tiebreaker: Tigers, Guardians, Red Sox
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Yankees
Houston Astros
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians, Red Sox, Tigers
NL East teams
Philadelphia Phillies
Win tiebreaker: Dodgers
Lose tiebreaker: Brewers
New York Mets
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Reds
NL Central teams
Milwaukee Brewers
Win tiebreaker: Phillies
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
Chicago Cubs
Win tiebreaker: Dodgers
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
(Padres and Cubs tied season series, division record tiebreaker TBD)
Cincinnati Reds
Win tiebreaker: Mets
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
NL West teams
Los Angeles Dodgers
Win tiebreaker: Padres
Lose tiebreaker: Brewers, Cubs, Phillies
San Diego Padres
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Dodgers
(Padres and Cubs tied season series, division record tiebreaker TBD)
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays are trying to hold for the AL’s No. 1 seed and division title. While Toronto has the tiebreaker in the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are both headed to the postseason regardless. And the Seattle Mariners separated themselves from the Houston Astros in a two-team AL West race to win their first division crown since 2001. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are going toe-to-toe with the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central while also playing themselves into a tight race for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds battling for the final playoff spot, with the Dodgers (who won the division) and Padres headed to the postseason from the NL West.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
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Bill Connelly
Since the college football preseason, it has been easy to circle Week 5 as sort of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It’s finally here, and it’s as big as we could have hoped.
Oregon and Penn State have beaten seven overwhelmed opponents by an average score of 48-8; their seasons begin in earnest in Happy Valley on Saturday night. Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1 made the Tide’s first trip to Athens, Georgia, in a decade even bigger from a consequences perspective. Unbeaten LSU and Ole Miss face off for what could be their third straight down-to-the-wire affair. Top-ranked Ohio State’s first road test of the season pits the Buckeyes against a Washington team with one of the most prolific offenses in the country.
Those are just the main events! On Friday night, resurgent Florida State visits a wonderfully surprising Virginia team. After last week’s merciless blowout of Illinois, Indiana has to avoid a massive letdown at Iowa, where many a letdown has occurred. Notre Dame and Arkansas play for the first time in a battle of frustrating and spectacularly explosive teams. Auburn and Texas A&M, which have played many wild and silly games over the past decade, have lots on the line in College Station. USC tests its unbeaten record in Champaign against scorned Illinois. We even get a Big Sky Saturday night with a battle of FCS top-10 teams!
We’ve spent four weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. Here’s everything you need to follow in an incredible Week 5.
Games are Saturday unless noted; times are Eastern.
The season begins in Happy Valley
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
With all due respect to Nevada, Florida International and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 teams, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State began its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, an average top-five team would expect to start the season 3-0 against those opponents 97.3% of the time, winning by an average of 38.3 points per game. The Nittany Lions won by exactly 38.3 per game.
Penn State traded résumé-building opportunities and a little bit of margin for error for three sure wins and got them. Oregon also hasn’t played much of a murderer’s row; the Ducks have dominated four teams ranked between 89th and 123rd in SP+. They didn’t allow their first non-garbage-time touchdown until last Saturday. Nothing is a must-win game for two name-brand Big Ten teams with unbeaten records, but neither of these teams will have sparkling strength-of-schedule rankings if they’re in, say, a large pile of 10-2 playoff hopefuls. It’s probably best to win this one.
Penn State’s defense has been every bit as dominant as we expected, considering James Franklin already had a top-five defense and added the best defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles) to lead it. The Nittany Lions force turnovers and don’t allow big plays, and they’ve continued to dominate the red zone as they did last season. The run defense maybe hasn’t dominated as much as I thought it would, but the pass defense has been just about perfect: Corner Elliot Washington II has more catches (one interception) than he has allowed (0-for-6), defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has been as good as advertised (4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), and linebacker Tony Rojas has picked up where he left off in last year’s College Football Playoff (4.5 TFLs, two sacks). Freshman end Chaz Coleman has quickly become a weapon, too.
To put it politely, the offense has been rather reserved. Franklin is the type of coach who would keep things vanilla and put as little as possible on film before a big game. PSU isn’t allowing pressure or negative plays and has committed just one turnover in three games, and Drew Allar hasn’t really looked to make big plays — he has thrown just four passes 30 or more yards downfield, completing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content to lean on opponents until they fall over.
Still, you’d like to think that, with so few deep-ball attempts, Allar would be completing more than 65% of his passes. And you’d like to think that, even with vanilla playcalling, Nicholas Singleton would be averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry. Kaytron Allen, another star back, has been dynamite (8.0 yards per carry, lots of broken tackles), new receivers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have done their jobs, and tight end Luke Reynolds has caught 13 of 16 passes. But Allar and Singleton haven’t been as sharp as necessary. Can they turn it on now that the season is really starting? Especially against this defense?
The Oregon pass defense has looked fantastic so far, and both star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one pass breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have looked the part. As with PSU, the run defense has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive front is still settling in — but the Ducks are forcing loads of passing downs and three-and-outs.
I was unsure about Oregon’s offense heading into the season because it would be relying on so many new starters, but the Ducks are fourth in points per drive, second in offensive SP+ and first in overall SP+. It seems as though things are going pretty well. Quarterback Dante Moore has been as automatic as coordinator Will Stein could want, completing 75% of his passes with just one sack. The receiver quartet of Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Jeremiah McClellan has caught 44 of 58 passes for 662 yards. Moore has also connected on four of seven downfield shots of more than 30 yards. His QB radar is nearly a perfect circle now.
Running back Jayden Limar enjoyed a star turn during Noah Whittington‘s injury absence, but now Whittington should be back. It has all worked. Even against a top-40 Northwestern defense, the Ducks scored on six of nine drives and averaged 6.7 yards per play. But this is still the biggest game of Moore’s career, and it will be played against one of the best defenses in the country in front of maybe college football’s loudest crowd (on White Out day, no less). It’s impossible to know a team is ready for that until it proves it.
Current line: PSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 0.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3
Bama has a lot to lose at Georgia
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
At this point last year, Alabama gave us the two best games of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
First, the Tide outlasted Georgia in an unreal 41-34 game that featured a huge Bulldogs comeback and maybe the greatest play of the season. Then, they turned around and lost to Vanderbilt in the upset of the year. In a lovely instance of symmetry, Bama once again gets Georgia and Vandy back-to-back. But the challenges won’t stop there. Six of the Tide’s next seven opponents rank 16th or better in SP+, and thanks to their dreadful Week 1 showing at Florida State, they don’t have much margin for error. If they lose in Athens on Saturday, in their first road trip since Tallahassee, they might have none.
Since their game against FSU, the Tide have been just about perfect. Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin obviously aren’t amazing, but Bama overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 48.4 points against the Warhawks and Badgers. The offense has surged to fifth nationally in points per possession, though its one-dimensionality could become an issue: The Tide are 18th in passing success rate* but 87th in rushing success rate and are therefore throwing far more frequently than the national average. Against Wisconsin, Bama running backs carried 15 times for just 45 yards, but it didn’t matter because quarterback Ty Simpson went 24-for-29 for 382 yards. (That was after going 17-for-17 for 226 yards against ULM. Like I said: just about perfect.)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)
That pass-heavy ratio probably won’t change Saturday because if you’re going to move the ball on Georgia, it’s through the air: The Dawgs are 10th in rushing success rate allowed but 86th against the pass. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and UT’s Chris Brazzell II torched UGA’s Daniel Harris one-on-one: four targets, four catches, 90 yards, two touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should find matchups for receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard — and perhaps Isaiah Horton, who has caught nine of nine passes for 105 yards and 2 scores — to exploit.
The Georgia run defense is really strong, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles against the run with four run stops (tackles at or behind the line). But despite blitzing a decent amount, the Dawgs rank just 102nd in sack rate and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. Without marked improvement there, Bama might get away without having to run much.
After sleepwalking through the Austin Peay game in Week 2, the Georgia offense woke up when it had to against Tennessee. The Dawgs were hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or more yards, four of 9 or fewer — primarily because negative plays derailed some drives (something that right tackle Earnest Greene III‘s continued injury issues won’t help). But Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on third and fourth down.
Efficiency levels are solid despite the negative plays, but big plays are an issue.
You’d rather be near USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is just 3-for-11 on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield — one of those was the game-saving, fourth-down touchdown lob to London Humphrey against Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some big gainers off short, quick passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, but this isn’t a naturally explosive offense.
Alabama’s defense hasn’t created nearly enough negative plays — the Tide are 68th in sack rate and 83rd in stuff rate — and their opponents’ third-down conversion rate has risen in each game. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That could make them vulnerable to Georgia’s short game, but they could counter that somewhat with big-play prevention: They got burned for four gains of 25 or more against Florida State, but they’ve given up just one such play since.
Because Georgia saved itself against Tennessee with yet another overtime win (its past three wins against power conference teams went to OT), the Dawgs have a little less to lose Saturday. But that’s the fun thing about college football: try to tell the 93,033 in attendance that one team needs this one a little more than the other. Huge games will always feel like huge games, and Bama-Georgia will always be a huge game.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 0.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 1.1
Ole Miss’ revenge or another LSU thriller?
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)
In five seasons from 1958 to 1962, Ole Miss and LSU met as top-15 opponents five times. You could say it was the Bama-Georgia of the day. (I guess that would make Billy Cannon’s punt return the “Second-and-26” of the day, especially because it probably prevented an Ole Miss national title.) For the next 60 years, though, these types of meetings were sparse. In 2003, Nick Saban’s LSU took down Eli Manning and Ole Miss to decide the SEC West, but that was about it until last year, when the Tigers won a 29-26 overtime thriller without leading for a second.
Ole Miss finished last season second in SP+, but three heartbreaking losses kept them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed opportunity because how often can Ole Miss expect to field a team that good? Well, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and they’ve already avenged one of 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.
It looks like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will start again for the Rebels. Stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, the Ferris State transfer has completed 42 of 62 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns with only two sacks, adding 198 non-sack rushing yards and two more scores. The approach with Chambliss has been simple: don’t worry about complicated intermediate passing, just woo defensive backs close to the line of scrimmage with relentless short passing, then hit ’em deep. He has completed 7 of 9 passes thrown 25 or more yards downfield.
Note the big gap in the middle of that pass map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of running back Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III capable of gaining solid yardage on short passes, the Rebels have a lot of ways to stay on schedule. That’s important because LSU dominates when teams get off schedule.
Opponents are just 2-for-26 against LSU on third-and-7 or more, and the Tigers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. Brian Kelly did well in the transfer portal by adding former USF defensive tackle Bernard Gooden up front (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 forced fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have targeted Delane’s man 20 times, and he has allowed just three completions with a pick and four breakups.
The LSU defense has controlled games so well that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t had to take many chances. He has thrown only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield, and he has completed only two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing a lot because of LSU’s unproven line and a poor run game, but Nussmeier is completing 73% of all his other passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight end Bauer Sharp have all caught at least 11 balls.
The passing game has been sharp enough that a dreadful run game hasn’t yet cost the Tigers. But whew, is it dreadful: LSU is 108th in rushing success rate. Caden Durham got hurt last week against Southeastern Louisiana, but he’s averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Getting blue-chip freshman Harlem Berry (5.8 per carry with more yards after contact) more touches might not be a bad idea.
The Tigers’ reliance on the pass creates an interesting contrast: Ole Miss’ pass defense has been efficient (18th in passing success rate allowed), but the run defense has been awful (104th). Defensive coordinator Pete Golding rarely blitzes, and Rebel defenders rarely end up in the backfield, but they do a good job of tackling and cluttering passing lanes — opponents have completed just 49% of their passes, third lowest in FBS. You move the ball on Ole Miss on the ground, but LSU moves the ball through the air. We love some nice narrative tension!
Current line: Ole Miss -1.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.5
The No. 1 team heads west
No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It appears conventional wisdom has forgotten about the Washington Huskies. The 2023 national runners-up rank first nationally in points per drive and ninth in yards per play, they have beaten three overwhelmed opponents by an average of 56-18, and they boast one of the nation’s most entertaining backfields with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and tackle-breaking back Jonah Coleman. But they have zero AP poll votes. How?
Granted, they probably won’t get any votes next week either because they will probably lose to Ohio State. The top-ranked Buckeyes took a week off after moving to 3-0, and they head west with one of the best defenses in the country.
With safety Caleb Downs and veteran breakout stars in tackle Caden Curry and OLB Arvell Reese, the Buckeyes likely have the tools to frustrate a young quarterback like Williams, and considering Washington’s banged-up defense ranks 61st in points allowed per drive without having played a top-80 offense (per SP+), it’s hard to see the Huskies making enough stops.
Despite one-third of its games coming against Texas’ excellent defense, Ohio State ranks second in passing success rate and completion rate. The Buckeyes’ run game isn’t nearly as strong as we’re used to seeing — then again, rising freshman Bo Jackson (no relation) has gained 217 yards in his first 18 carries — but quarterback Julian Sayin has thrived throwing to stars Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (combined: 32 catches, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns), and I don’t know how UW disrupts that connection with star cornerback Tacario Davis questionable and nickel Dyson McCutcheon out. (Linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah is also out.)
So why am I giving this game marquee treatment instead of sticking it in the playlist below? A few reasons:
• This is Sayin’s first road start, and plenty of awesome, young quarterbacks have stumbled on the road early in their careers. Washington also blitzes a lot and has at least one excellent pass rusher in Jacob Lane.
• Net YAC! I wrote about the impact of yards after contact this week, and Washington is one of the nation’s best teams at grinding out YAC and allowing none for opponents.
• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (75.0%) and, combined with Coleman successfully fighting for extra yards, could move the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s defense.
• Everyone fails a test at some point, but in five career starts, Williams has completed 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack rushing yards and only one interception. He’s incredible, and there’s nothing like a visit from the No. 1 team to introduce yourself to the world.
Yes, Ohio State probably wins. But Washington might not need many breaks to take this one down to the wire.
Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0
YAC kings in action
That’s right, this week’s keyword is YAC. Yards after contact are the secret weapon for teams exceeding expectations, and quite a few Week 5 games will highlight 2025’s YAC kings. That includes two games pitting YAC kings against one another.
No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN).
FSU has vaulted back into the top 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our imagination. The Seminoles are fifth in net YAC and second in rushing yards per game — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone back to his rushing roots, and it’s pretty spicy to watch. Virginia, however, is eighth in net YAC and has leaped from 74th to 42nd in SP+. An offense with seven transfer starters, including RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved almost as much as Florida State’s.
Current line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 2.5
No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock).
Indiana (sixth in net YAC) hits the road to face an Iowa team (ninth in net YAC) that has upset four top-15 teams at home in the past decade. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have to watch out for a letdown after last week’s Illinois blowout, but while Iowa’s offense has scored 30 points three times this season, the only decent defense the Hawkeyes have faced, Iowa State’s, held them to 13. Kinnick Stadium will need to summon loads of magic (and YAC) for the Hawkeyes to take this one.
Current line: Indiana -7.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 9.2 | FPI projection: Indiana by 8.7
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (noon, Fox).
Two weeks ago, USC (seventh in net YAC) wobbled but kept it together in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern trip should be trickier. Illinois got YAC’d to pieces by Indiana and will probably respond with physicality, but the Illini still must slow down Jayden Maiava and a great USC passing game.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 7.6 | FPI projection: USC by 6.3
No. 25 BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).
BYU (fourth in net YAC) is just mean. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per drive and force tons of negative plays, and running back LJ Martin is a great security blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense found its footing last week against Wyoming, but the BYU defense is a different obstacle.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 8.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 8.1
Rice at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN).
If you’re a fan of the multiview box, this one will be a lovely complement to LSU-Ole Miss and Ohio State-Washington. Not only do you get another glimpse at unbeaten Navy (first in net YAC), but you also get to watch a Rice option offense averaging 246 rushing yards per game.
Current line: Navy -14.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 17.9 | FPI projection: Navy by 15.7
Virginia Tech at NC State (7 p.m., The CW).
Hollywood Smothers leads the nation in yards after contact, and he has been the primary driver of NC State’s 3-1 start. The defense gives up far too many big plays, and for all of Virginia Tech’s flaws, receivers Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene are explosive. But you’re watching this one for Smothers.
Current line: NC State -9.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.5
UMass at No. 20 Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPNU).
OK, you don’t need to watch much of this, especially during a loaded prime-time slot. But any glimpse of Mizzou (second in net YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (combined: 898 yards and eight TDs) is worth the effort.
Current line: Mizzou -43.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 52.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 44.5
Week 5 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to San Diego State’s shocking blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our power is only growing stronger.
This week, SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that Indiana (72% win probability at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Someone’s suffering a letdown game after either a big win (Indiana or Memphis) or a long flight (Utah or Houston).
Week 5 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a couple of weeks, but ASU has officially checked into the 2025 season with an easy win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game in more than 11 months, but TCU has very the part in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you’ve got a hell of a Friday night!
Current line: ASU -3.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 1.3 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.1
Early Saturday
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (noon, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have won three games by a combined 113 points and lost four by a combined 11. That’s pretty tough to do, and one of them will head into October with a losing record despite obvious upside. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t get a track meet here, considering their seven games have averaged 69.7 total points thus far.
Current line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4
Cincinnati at Kansas (noon, TNT). I think Cincinnati might be good. I know Kansas is. The Jayhawks led Missouri in the fourth quarter and beat three other opponents (including West Virginia) by a combined 118-24. Cincinnati’s offense ranks second nationally in success rate — second rushing, third passing — and the defense ranks first in yards allowed per successful play. If they figure out how not to completely stink on third downs, the Bearcats could pull an upset.
Current line: KU -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: KU by 9.8 | FPI projection: KU by 5.2
Duke at Syracuse (noon, ACCN). How good is Rickie Collins? The sophomore LSU transfer — and new Syracuse starter — was just 3-for-8 against Clemson after stepping in for the injured Steve Angeli, but his 18-yard touchdown pass to Justus Ross-Simmons put away the upset. Duke’s pass defense has been surprisingly disastrous this season, but the Blue Devils can rush the passer and potentially stress Collins.
Current line: Duke -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ‘Cuse by 4.0 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 3.1
Louisville at Pitt (noon, ESPN2). Louisville has yet to play a top-50 opponent, per SP+, but the Cardinals have a good pass defense and maybe the most explosive running back corps in FBS. Pitt, meanwhile, has an explosive passing game and maybe the best run defense Louisville will face. I think Louisville’s really good, but Pitt is pretty good at making things messy and thriving in the chaos.
Current line: Louisville -4.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.7
Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, BTN). For the second straight week, Rutgers will try to entice a known rock-fight lover into a wide-open battle. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses — Minnesota lost by 13 to a Cal team that proceeded to get drubbed by San Diego State, and Rutgers dragged Iowa into a track meet but lost 38-28. The loser of this one just hopes to get to 6-6.
Current line: Minnesota -4.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.2
No. 14 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (noon, ESPN). Wake Forest has outscored opponents 66-30 in the first and third quarters but has been outscored 23-10 in the second and fourth. The Demon Deacons led NC State 14-0 two weeks ago but were outscored 34-10 from there. That’s probably a bad sign against a Tech team that seems to have some 60-minute staying power (the Jackets are at least +15 in every quarter).
Current line: Tech -13.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 14.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 11.7
Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). We don’t yet know how good these teams are — USU has overachieved against SP+ projections by 15.0 points per game (10th nationally) while Vandy is at +16.8 (eighth). Clark Lea’s Commodores are likely quite a bit better than Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies, but if Miles Davis and the USU run game get going, they could make this uncomfortable for a bit.
Current line: Vandy -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: Vandy by 24.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 22.7
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Since 2013, these teams have played games decided by scores of 45-41, 43-41, 41-38, 28-24 and 13-10. The matchup scores pretty high on the “potential nonsense” scale, and it’s a huge game for both teams: Auburn is a projected favorite in only two games the rest of the season and needs to initiate a rally before Georgia and Missouri come to town next month. A&M, meanwhile, needs to get to 6-0 before a three-game SEC road trip. A&M gives up lots of big plays, but Auburn doesn’t make many.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 4.7
No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SECN). Tennessee has reverted to its track meet days, scoring at least 41 points in every game and allowing at least 24 in three. The Vols are also very good. Mississippi State might be too. The Bulldogs have overachieved against SP+ projections by 9.5 points per game this season, and, well, if they hit that mark Saturday, they’re 5-0.
Current line: Vols -7.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 6.5
UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). I can’t tell you to actually watch this game — I have a strong sense of morbid curiosity, but it only goes so far. Still, I bring this game up for one reason: UCLA has a 22% chance of going 0-12 this season, per SP+, and this is the only game remaining in which the Bruins aren’t double-digit projected underdogs. Lose this one, and 0-12 odds skyrocket.
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 2.0 | FPI projection: NU by 7.0
Saturday evening
Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). The first Arizona-ISU game since 1968 is a big one: The teams are a combined 7-0, and the winner will be in the top tier of Big 12 contenders. When Rocco Becht and ISU attempt to pass — a semi-frequent occurrence because of a shaky run game — it will be strength vs. strength. Becht is quite efficient, but ‘Zona ranks second nationally in yards allowed per dropback.
Current line: ISU -5.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 8.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8
Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1). Boise State is shifting into gear behind a ridiculously explosive run game and an aggressive defense. App State is struggling offensively, but the Mountaineers’ defense ranks second nationally in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play) and dominates third downs. Can they score enough to make things interesting?
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 18.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 12.9
Late Saturday
FCS: No. 10 Idaho at No. 4 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Time for the Little Brown Stein! BYU-Colorado is the only late game in FBS, and the Big Sky gets a national showcase. Idaho has lost a pair of FBS games by just six combined points and boasts a super fun dual-threat QB in Joshua Wood. Montana can either throw over you (Keali’i Ah Yat is averaging 287.7 passing yards per game) or run through you (Eli Gillman is averaging 9.1 yards per carry). The Big Sky loves a good rock fight, but this one has track meet potential.
SP+ projection: Griz by 13.1
Smaller-school showcase
We always save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to Idaho-Montana, here are three more games you should track.
FCS: No. 18 South Dakota at No. 1 North Dakota State (2 p.m., ESPN+). Before the season, I thought this might be the FCS game of the year. South Dakota stumbled early, however, and will now try to beat FCS’ best team with turnovers and random big plays. NDSU has been in fifth gear all season, winning three games by a combined 138-17. The skill corps combo of RB Barika Kpeenu and WR Bryce Lance is unfair.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 25.7
FCS: Brown at Harvard (6 p.m., ESPN+). The Ivy League looked fantastic in its season debut last week, and these teams — which beat poor Stetson and Georgetown by a combined 105-7 — were as good as anyone. Both teams created loads of big-pass plays, and whoever prevents them better in this one (probably Harvard) moves to 2-0.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 18.1
Division II: No. 8 California (Pa.) at No. 4 Slippery Rock (6 p.m., local streaming). I named Slippery Rock as a small-school team you should adopt, and the Rock have responded with wins both dramatic (overtime over Shepherd) and resounding (42-0 over Shippensburg). Now comes a big test. The Cal Vulcans are allowing 4.8 yards per play and forcing loads of turnovers, and safety Alexie Sangster Jr. might be one of the best DBs in Division II.
SP+ projection: The Rock by 8.0
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