By-election battlegrounds: Everything you need to know about this week’s votes in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton

Published

2 years ago

July 21, 2023

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On 20 July, Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three seats at by-elections on the same day.

The Conservative Party’s implosion over MP misconduct and whether Boris Johnson lied to parliament has presented election watchers with an intriguing set of contests.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, vacated by Mr Johnson himself, gives Labour a shot at a seat well within the swings (around eight points) they have already achieved in this parliament.

Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, where Johnson ally Nigel Adams has stepped aside, requires an 18-point swing for a Labour win. This is beyond both the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election and the 16-point swing suggested by recent polls. Gaining Selby would also set a record for the size of majority overturned by Labour at a by-election.

Given stellar Liberal Democrat performances since 2021, Somerton and Frome should be easy pickings for the party David Cameron once obliterated from the South West. A swing of 15 points would topple yet another Tory seat in the south of England.

The results will give an insight into how voters view the government’s effort to tackle inflation, rising interest rates and NHS waiting lists and whether they think it’s time to give Sir Keir Starmer a go at solving them. But, as ever, by-elections develop their own character and local priorities can intervene.

So, what’s at play in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton?

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Established in 2010, the seat of Uxbridge has elected Conservatives since then. Boris Johnson won more than half the vote at each of the last three contests. It even bucked the London trend to back Brexit.

A suburban commuter town on the western edge of metropolitan London, it includes both a university and RAF Northolt. The area hasn’t experienced the same urban development as much of the capital, but the demographics have been moving in Labour’s favour.

The latest census suggests the population has become younger, more educated, and more diverse than a decade ago, all likely indicators of Labour support. That said, look a little closer and it’s an inconsistent picture.

Students dominate in the university areas around Uxbridge and Colham where more people live in rented homes. The working-class area of Yiewsley is the most Labour friendly. While South Ruislip is the main Tory territory. Here, you find older owner-occupiers and commuters. The rising Asian community also seems to have given the Tories a hearing.

These differences may be one reason why Uxbridge has been ‘sticky’ at election time. In 2019 Boris Johnson was defending the smallest majority of any prime minister since 1924, just over 5,000 votes. Despite Labour’s best efforts he increased that to over 7,000. It means Labour need an eight-point swing, just half that suggested by the national polls, to win the seat for the first time.

But, as ever at by-elections, it might not be that simple.

The most recent elections in the constituency were for Hillingdon Council in 2022 and the results showed little enthusiasm for Labour, despite a record Conservative defeat across the capital on the same day.

Labour won just one of the seven wards that sit entirely within the constituency – Yiewsley. To succeed on 20 July, they need to maximise their vote there and persuade the students of the Colham and Cowley ward to turn out.

But there’s a local factor dominating the contest that could render the national politics largely irrelevant.

The Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ), a tax on cars which don’t meet certain emissions standards, is being extended by London’s Labour mayor to cover the area in August. Unlike inner London, this is a constituency where around four in five households have a car and one in three have two or more. The issue has prompted two of the extensive list of 17 candidates to change their names to include the phrases “Anti-ULEZ” and “No-ULEZ”.

The length of the ballot paper could also be a problem for the main parties. It gives voters plenty of options other than Labour, ranging from UKIP, which has done well here in the past, to Piers Corbyn (brother of Jeremy), and Laurence Fox. The Conservatives will hope voters read to the end as their candidate is listed last thanks to his place in the alphabet.

With a declaration not expected until after 3am, those watching Sky News will have plenty of time to consider the turnout. Invariably lower at by-elections than general elections, there’s no way of knowing why people do and don’t vote or who did and didn’t. However, we can estimate a reasonable figure.

Based on contests so far this parliament, we expect turnout to be around 27 points lower than in 2019 in all three constituencies. For Uxbridge that means something in the region of 40%.

Selby and Ainsty

A record-breaking result could come at the other end of England, in Selby and Ainsty. Nestled in the North Yorkshire countryside, this seat is a mix of rural villages and towns surrounded by churches and historical battle sites.

Almost everything about it says Tory heartland and since its creation in 2010 that’s how people here have voted. Nigel Adams’s decision to resign, because he was denied a peerage, means Selby will have a change of MP for the first time.

If Labour were to win, it would set a record. The highest majority the party has overturned at a by-election is 14,654 votes in Mid-Staffordshire more than 30 years ago.

But while the demographics here might not be trending in Labour’s favour, as more than a fifth of people are aged over 60, the issues are. Selby and Ainsty is in the top 40 seats in England and Wales for mortgage holders. 37% of households have a mortgage and rising interest rates might impact the vote.

The latest council elections in 2022 also provide Labour with hope. They finished just six points behind the Conservatives despite managing to win only four of the 15 wards within the constituency. Labour needs to persuade voters in Selby, Sherburn and Appleton who did not support them then to do so now.

Turnout could be key too. In Selby, we suggest one of around 45% would be in line with recent by-elections.

With the general election creeping closer, Sir Keir Starmer needs to show he can win votes directly from the Conservatives in places throughout England, not just those with Labour history. Selby provides the perfect opportunity.

The 18-point swing required for victory would be the best Labour has achieved this parliament. By-elections aren’t ideal predictors of general election performance but, if they do win Selby, no doubt Labour will remind us they need a 12-point national swing for a parliamentary majority.

That is more than the record swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. Intriguingly, the estimates drawn up for Selby’s boundaries for 2005, Blair’s last election, put Labour just four points shy of the Conservatives. So perhaps winning Selby should be within Labour’s reach if it is to win a majority at the next general election.

The pressure to pull off the big win is on Labour candidate Keir Mather. At just 25, if elected, he would be the youngest MP in the Commons – the so-called Baby of the House.

Somerton and Frome

In the West Country the Conservatives face a different challenger and a feeling of deja vu. Just a year ago the Liberal Democrats made by-election history overturning a record 24,239 Conservative majority in Tiverton and Honiton and now they’re back in Somerton and Frome.

Unlike Tiverton in Devon, this Somerset market town has substantial Lib Dem pedigree. For 18 years it was represented by the former Lib Dem minister David Heath until the Tories gained it in the 2015 post-coalition sweep of the South West.

David Warburton was the winner then and it is his departure after allegations of cocaine use, which he admits, and sexual misconduct, which he denies, that has triggered this contest. He had built a substantial majority of more than 19,000 votes but this seat has often been competitive.

The population is largely older than average and less exposed to interest rates, with more than 43% of households owning their home without a mortgage. But they have been trending away from the Tories.

The 2022 Somerset Council results were terrible for the Conservatives and the biggest falls were in the wards that make up Somerton and Frome. The Liberal Democrats were first in 10 of those 13 wards, taking 40% of the vote, while the Conservatives managed to win just one. Even the Greens managed two.

And you can’t say Sarah Dyke, the Liberal Democrat candidate, doesn’t know how to defeat a Conservative. At those 2022 council elections, she beat Hayward Burt, CCHQ’s resident expert on conquering Liberal Democrats, to take her seat in Blackmoor Vale.

Now, she requires a swing of 15 points to become the MP for Somerton, which looks pretty modest compared to other Lib Dem wins this parliament.

We expect a reasonable turnout to be in the region of 48%.

How to judge the result?

Rishi Sunak is unlikely to emerge from these by-elections unscathed.

On recent form, a loss in Somerton is expected and it will be further evidence the Conservatives could be fighting the next general election on two fronts.

Losing Uxbridge would be a blow to the Tories but no worse than other defeats in this parliament. Should Labour miss out, Sir Keir Starmer will have questions of his own to answer.

But attention will be elsewhere if Conservative rural Selby turns a record-breaking red. Labour could claim to be winning votes directly from the Tories even in their established heartlands.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

By-elections special: Watch live coverage throughout the night on Sky News – with a special programme from midnight on Friday featuring analysis and reaction as the three results come in

Dr Hannah Bunting is a Lecturer in Quantitative British Politics at the University of Exeter.

Will Jennings is a Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, as well as Associate Dean (Research and Enterprise), in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Southampton.

Politics

How record-breaking Reform UK donor Christopher Harborne made his millions

Published

5 hours ago

December 4, 2025

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How record-breaking Reform UK donor Christopher Harborne made his millions

Who is the man behind the record-breaking multi-million pound donation to Reform UK?

Christopher Harborne gave Nigel Farage‘s party £9m in August, according to new data published by the Electoral Commission. The contribution ranks as the largest ever single donation from a living person in UK political history.

Born in Britain, Mr Harborne is a businessman who owns several companies, employing more than 600 people worldwide, according to a court filing dated last year.

Yet he’s not resident in the UK, and is also a citizen of Thailand, where he is known as Chakrit Sakunkrit, and has lived and worked there for 20 years.

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Nonetheless, he has a long history of political donations to British parties.

Electoral Commission data shows he has previously donated to the Conservatives, gifting them £10,000 in May 2001, and continuing to support them with close to £2m in donations by October 2022.

But there was been some overlap with his backing of Reform, which first received a donation from him in April 2019, for £200,000.

He’s also donated to Mr Farage personally, giving £27,616.76 in January so the Reform leader could attend the second inauguration of Donald Trump.

He paid another £32,836 for the Reform and a member of staff to fly to the US following the attempted assassination of Trump in July last year.

And he gave one of the biggest donations ever made to an individual UK politician when he backed Boris Johnson to the tune of £1m in 2022.

He served as an advisor to Mr Johnson during the former PM’s trip to Kyiv in 2023.

His latest cash injection to Reform UK breaks the previous record for a donation from a living person, which was £8m from supermarket tycoon Lord David Sainsbury to the Liberal Democrats in 2019.

The largest ever single donation to a UK political party was from his cousin, Lord John Sainsbury, who left more than £10.2m to the Conservatives in 2022 in his will.

Electoral Commission records show Mr Harborne has made at least £24.5m in UK political donations since 2001.

But where is his money from?

Several of his businesses come under the banner of AML Global, including one registered in the UK, which has a London address listed with Companies House.

AML Global is described in a court filing as an international jet fuel broker that works with oil companies, and which has been awarded $39m (£29m) worth of contracts by the US Department of Defense.

Harborne was also an early investor in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

On his LinkedIn page, the businessman further describes himself as chair of Sherriff Global Group.

His profile shows he was educated at INSEAD business school, Cambridge University, and Westminster School.

Figures from the Electoral Commission released this week show Reform UK reported the most donations of any party in the third quarter of 2025, a total of £10,526,846.

By contrast, the Conservatives reported £7,038,861 in the same period, Labour £2,564,786, and the Liberal Democrats £2,174,712.

Politics

Reeves between a rook and a hard place after claims she ‘made up’ chess championship

Published

5 hours ago

December 4, 2025

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Reeves between a rook and a hard place after claims she 'made up' chess championship

As an opening gambit at PMQs, Kemi Badenoch attacked Labour’s knight, the prime minister, over his Treasury queen, Rachel Reeves.

“We now know the black hole was fake, the chancellor’s book was fake, her CV was fake – even her chess claims are made up,” said the Tory leader.

Politics Live: Labour MP who voted against inheritance tax suspended

“She doesn’t belong in the Treasury; she belongs in la-la land.”

Chess claims made up? Where did that attacking move from Kemi come from? Hasn’t the chancellor told us for years that she was a national chess champion in 1993?

Indeed she has. “I am – I was – a geek. I played chess. I was the British girls’ under-14 champion,” she declared proudly in a 2023 interview with The Guardian.

She posted a video showing her playing chess in parliament and before last week’s budget posed for photos with a chessboard.

But her chess champion claim has been disputed by a former junior champion, Alex Edmans, who has accused her of misrepresenting her credentials.

“Her claim was quite specific,” Edmans, now a professor of finance at the London Business School, told Ali Fortescue on the Politics Hub on Sky News.

“She said she was the British girls’ under-14 champion. There was one event that can go on that title, which is the British Championship. And in the year that she claimed, it was Emily Howard who won that title instead.

“She did indeed win a quite different title. There was a British Women’s Chess Association championship, but that’s a more minor title. I’ve won titles like the British squad title, but that’s not the same.

“Just like running a marathon in London is not the same as the London Marathon, there was one event which is very prestigious, which is the British Championship.

“So the dispute is not whether she was a good or bad chess player. That shouldn’t be the criterion for a chancellor. But if you weren’t the British champion, you shouldn’t make that statement.”

Oh dear! So now, along with allegations of plagiarism, a dodgy CV and “lying” – according to Ms Badenoch – about the nation’s finances, the chancellor is between a rook and a hard place.

Or is she? “This story is absolute nonsense,” a Treasury mate told Sky News. No word from the No.10 knight, Sir Keir Starmer, or his Downing Street ranks, however.

Emily Howard, as it happens, is now an accomplished composer, having graduated from the chessboard to the keyboard.

The chancellor’s opponents, meanwhile, claim her budget blunders means the Treasury queen has now become a pawn, there for the taking.

But since Rachel Reeves did indeed win a chess title, just not the one she claimed, her supporters insist she can justifiably claim to have been a champion.

So it’s too soon for Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives to claim checkmate. The dispute remains a stalemate. For now.

Politics

Reform UK gets record £9m donation from ex-Tory donor

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5 hours ago

December 4, 2025

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Reform UK gets record £9m donation from ex-Tory donor

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK have received its largest ever donation, with former Conservative donor Christopher Harborne handing the party £9m.

The donation – one of the largest in British political history – was made in August this year, according to filings from the Electoral Commission.

Mr Harborne, a British businessman based in Thailand, previously donated millions to Reform in 2019, when it was known as the Brexit Party, and has continued to give the party and Mr Farage cash.

Politics latest: Reform gets its largest ever donation

Between 2001 and 2022, he donated close to £2m to the Conservatives, according to Companies House.

The £9m handed to Reform UK on 1 August this year is the largest political donation on record from a living person, after Lord Sainsbury left £10m to the Conservatives in his will in 2023.

Educated in the UK, Mr Harbone is now based in Thailand, where he chairs the investment company Sherriff Global Group.

He also paid around £28,000 for Mr Farage to travel to the US for Donald Trump’s inauguration this year, and roughly £33,000 for the Reform leader to visit the president after the failed assassination attempt in the run-up to the election.

Responding to a question at a news conference from Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates, Mr Farage said Mr Harborne has business interests all around the world, but his “natural home” was the UK.

He says the donation is “nothing out of the blue”, pointing to Mr Harbone donating significant sums to the Brexit Party.

“I think what he wants to do, really, is to try and help us get onto a level playing field with the trade union funded Labour Party, and a Conservative Party where there seems to be a remarkable correlation, I can’t think why, between donations and membership of the House of Lords,” Mr Farage said.

He added that “hand on heart” he has not promised anything to Mr Harborne in exchange for the money, adding that speaks to the Bangkok-based businessman “maybe once a month, maybe once every six weeks”.

Professor Justin Fisher of Brunel University, an expert in political donations, told Sky News: “It exposes the fact that this is a person who is a British citizen but is able to influence British politics without being subject to the laws that any Reform government might bring in, any tax arrangements that a Reform might bring in.

“This is foreign money by any other name.”

The professor pointed to the fact that in the 2022 Election Act under the Conservatives, the law was changed so that British citizens could live abroad their whole lives and stay on the electoral roll, allowing them to donate.

Previously, the cap had been set at 15 years of living overseas.

He added that it was not surprising to see a person with an interest in a particular policy area – like cryptocurrencies – give money to a political advocating for this cause.

According to the Electoral Commission, political parties raised £24m in the third quarter of this year – up from £10m over the same time period last year, and £11m last quarter.

With the local and national assembly elections coming up in May next year, parties are building their war chests for the campaign.

Reform reported taking a total of £10,526,846, more than the Tories (£7,038,861), Labour (£2,564,786), and the Lib Dems (£2,174,712).

This means Mr Farage’s party raised almost as much as the three main parties combined (£11,778,359).

While the Green Party has reported an increase in donations since Zack Polanski became leader, these figures mostly cover the time before he took office, with the party only accepting £371,753.

Professor Jonathan Hopkin of the London School of Economics told Sky News the donation “shows the power of money in politics if one individual can make such a big difference to the resources available to a political party”.

He added that big donors giving to Reform who also have links to the Tories could separately “pressurise the Conservatives to step aside their candidates in seats that Reform are better placed to win”.

The fact that Reform has received large volumes of cash from a former Tory donor will do nothing to extinguish reports that the two parties are considering an electoral pact in time for the next general election.

The Financial Times reported that such an agreement was spoken about by Mr Farage in a discussion with party donors.

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Both the Conservatives and Reform have denied they will do a deal.

Reform currently lead voting intention polls, with the Conservatives and Labour together in joint second place, followed by the Greens.

A spokesperson for the Reform Party said: “This quarter’s figures show the incredible progress Reform UK is making. This is further evidence that we have all the momentum in British politics.”