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On 20 July, Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three seats at by-elections on the same day.

The Conservative Party’s implosion over MP misconduct and whether Boris Johnson lied to parliament has presented election watchers with an intriguing set of contests.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, vacated by Mr Johnson himself, gives Labour a shot at a seat well within the swings (around eight points) they have already achieved in this parliament.

Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, where Johnson ally Nigel Adams has stepped aside, requires an 18-point swing for a Labour win. This is beyond both the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election and the 16-point swing suggested by recent polls. Gaining Selby would also set a record for the size of majority overturned by Labour at a by-election.

Given stellar Liberal Democrat performances since 2021, Somerton and Frome should be easy pickings for the party David Cameron once obliterated from the South West. A swing of 15 points would topple yet another Tory seat in the south of England.

The results will give an insight into how voters view the government’s effort to tackle inflation, rising interest rates and NHS waiting lists and whether they think it’s time to give Sir Keir Starmer a go at solving them. But, as ever, by-elections develop their own character and local priorities can intervene.

So, what’s at play in Uxbridge, Selby and Somerton?

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Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Established in 2010, the seat of Uxbridge has elected Conservatives since then. Boris Johnson won more than half the vote at each of the last three contests. It even bucked the London trend to back Brexit.

A suburban commuter town on the western edge of metropolitan London, it includes both a university and RAF Northolt. The area hasn’t experienced the same urban development as much of the capital, but the demographics have been moving in Labour’s favour.

The latest census suggests the population has become younger, more educated, and more diverse than a decade ago, all likely indicators of Labour support. That said, look a little closer and it’s an inconsistent picture.

Students dominate in the university areas around Uxbridge and Colham where more people live in rented homes. The working-class area of Yiewsley is the most Labour friendly. While South Ruislip is the main Tory territory. Here, you find older owner-occupiers and commuters. The rising Asian community also seems to have given the Tories a hearing.

These differences may be one reason why Uxbridge has been ‘sticky’ at election time. In 2019 Boris Johnson was defending the smallest majority of any prime minister since 1924, just over 5,000 votes. Despite Labour’s best efforts he increased that to over 7,000. It means Labour need an eight-point swing, just half that suggested by the national polls, to win the seat for the first time.

But, as ever at by-elections, it might not be that simple.

The most recent elections in the constituency were for Hillingdon Council in 2022 and the results showed little enthusiasm for Labour, despite a record Conservative defeat across the capital on the same day.

Labour won just one of the seven wards that sit entirely within the constituency – Yiewsley. To succeed on 20 July, they need to maximise their vote there and persuade the students of the Colham and Cowley ward to turn out.

But there’s a local factor dominating the contest that could render the national politics largely irrelevant.

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The Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ), a tax on cars which don’t meet certain emissions standards, is being extended by London’s Labour mayor to cover the area in August. Unlike inner London, this is a constituency where around four in five households have a car and one in three have two or more. The issue has prompted two of the extensive list of 17 candidates to change their names to include the phrases “Anti-ULEZ” and “No-ULEZ”.

The length of the ballot paper could also be a problem for the main parties. It gives voters plenty of options other than Labour, ranging from UKIP, which has done well here in the past, to Piers Corbyn (brother of Jeremy), and Laurence Fox. The Conservatives will hope voters read to the end as their candidate is listed last thanks to his place in the alphabet.

With a declaration not expected until after 3am, those watching Sky News will have plenty of time to consider the turnout. Invariably lower at by-elections than general elections, there’s no way of knowing why people do and don’t vote or who did and didn’t. However, we can estimate a reasonable figure.

Based on contests so far this parliament, we expect turnout to be around 27 points lower than in 2019 in all three constituencies. For Uxbridge that means something in the region of 40%.

Selby and Ainsty

A record-breaking result could come at the other end of England, in Selby and Ainsty. Nestled in the North Yorkshire countryside, this seat is a mix of rural villages and towns surrounded by churches and historical battle sites.

Almost everything about it says Tory heartland and since its creation in 2010 that’s how people here have voted. Nigel Adams’s decision to resign, because he was denied a peerage, means Selby will have a change of MP for the first time.

If Labour were to win, it would set a record. The highest majority the party has overturned at a by-election is 14,654 votes in Mid-Staffordshire more than 30 years ago.

But while the demographics here might not be trending in Labour’s favour, as more than a fifth of people are aged over 60, the issues are. Selby and Ainsty is in the top 40 seats in England and Wales for mortgage holders. 37% of households have a mortgage and rising interest rates might impact the vote.

The latest council elections in 2022 also provide Labour with hope. They finished just six points behind the Conservatives despite managing to win only four of the 15 wards within the constituency. Labour needs to persuade voters in Selby, Sherburn and Appleton who did not support them then to do so now.

Turnout could be key too. In Selby, we suggest one of around 45% would be in line with recent by-elections.

With the general election creeping closer, Sir Keir Starmer needs to show he can win votes directly from the Conservatives in places throughout England, not just those with Labour history. Selby provides the perfect opportunity.

The 18-point swing required for victory would be the best Labour has achieved this parliament. By-elections aren’t ideal predictors of general election performance but, if they do win Selby, no doubt Labour will remind us they need a 12-point national swing for a parliamentary majority.

That is more than the record swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. Intriguingly, the estimates drawn up for Selby’s boundaries for 2005, Blair’s last election, put Labour just four points shy of the Conservatives. So perhaps winning Selby should be within Labour’s reach if it is to win a majority at the next general election.

The pressure to pull off the big win is on Labour candidate Keir Mather. At just 25, if elected, he would be the youngest MP in the Commons – the so-called Baby of the House.

Somerton and Frome

In the West Country the Conservatives face a different challenger and a feeling of deja vu. Just a year ago the Liberal Democrats made by-election history overturning a record 24,239 Conservative majority in Tiverton and Honiton and now they’re back in Somerton and Frome.

Unlike Tiverton in Devon, this Somerset market town has substantial Lib Dem pedigree. For 18 years it was represented by the former Lib Dem minister David Heath until the Tories gained it in the 2015 post-coalition sweep of the South West.

David Warburton was the winner then and it is his departure after allegations of cocaine use, which he admits, and sexual misconduct, which he denies, that has triggered this contest. He had built a substantial majority of more than 19,000 votes but this seat has often been competitive.

The population is largely older than average and less exposed to interest rates, with more than 43% of households owning their home without a mortgage. But they have been trending away from the Tories.

The 2022 Somerset Council results were terrible for the Conservatives and the biggest falls were in the wards that make up Somerton and Frome. The Liberal Democrats were first in 10 of those 13 wards, taking 40% of the vote, while the Conservatives managed to win just one. Even the Greens managed two.

And you can’t say Sarah Dyke, the Liberal Democrat candidate, doesn’t know how to defeat a Conservative. At those 2022 council elections, she beat Hayward Burt, CCHQ’s resident expert on conquering Liberal Democrats, to take her seat in Blackmoor Vale.

Now, she requires a swing of 15 points to become the MP for Somerton, which looks pretty modest compared to other Lib Dem wins this parliament.

We expect a reasonable turnout to be in the region of 48%.

How to judge the result?

Rishi Sunak is unlikely to emerge from these by-elections unscathed.

On recent form, a loss in Somerton is expected and it will be further evidence the Conservatives could be fighting the next general election on two fronts.

Losing Uxbridge would be a blow to the Tories but no worse than other defeats in this parliament. Should Labour miss out, Sir Keir Starmer will have questions of his own to answer.

But attention will be elsewhere if Conservative rural Selby turns a record-breaking red. Labour could claim to be winning votes directly from the Tories even in their established heartlands.

Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat. If Labour wins that, who’s to say they can’t gain the 124 seats they need for a Westminster majority?

By-elections special: Watch live coverage throughout the night on Sky News – with a special programme from midnight on Friday featuring analysis and reaction as the three results come in

Dr Hannah Bunting is a Lecturer in Quantitative British Politics at the University of Exeter.

Will Jennings is a Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, as well as Associate Dean (Research and Enterprise), in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Southampton.

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Facial recognition vans to be rolled out across police forces in England

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Facial recognition vans to be rolled out across police forces in England

The police’s use of facial recognition technology is to be significantly expanded in an attempt to catch more offenders, ministers have announced.

Under the plans, 10 live facial recognition (LFR) vans will be used by seven forces across England to help identify “sex offenders or people wanted for the most serious crimes”, according to Home Secretary Yvette Cooper.

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The tech, which has been trialled in London and south Wales, will be subject to strict rules, the Home Office said, but human rights groups have warned it is “dangerous and discriminatory”.

Amnesty International UK said the plans should be “immediately scrapped”, with facial recognition proven to be “discriminatory against communities of colour”.

“It has been known to lead to misidentification and the risk of wrongful arrest,” said Alba Kapoor, the charity’s racial justice lead, “and it’s also known to be less accurate in scanning the faces of people of colour.”

The Home Office said the LFR vans will only be deployed when there is “specific intelligence”, and will be operated by trained officers who will check every match made by the cameras.

The vehicles will also only be used against bespoke watch lists, compiled for each use under guidelines set by the College of Policing.

The vans will be operated by police forces in Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, Bedfordshire, Surrey and Sussex (jointly), and Thames Valley and Hampshire (jointly).

The 10 vans set to be deployed to police forces across England.
Pic: Home Office
Image:
The 10 vans set to be deployed to police forces across England.
Pic: Home Office

‘The most serious offenders’

Ms Cooper has said ministers are focused on making sure “there are proper safeguards in place”.

As part of the plans, the home secretary has announced she will be launching a consultation on how and when the cameras should be used, and with what safeguards, which the government will use to draw up a new legal framework for the use of the cameras.

Ms Cooper said the tech had been used in London and South Wales “in a targeted way”, and helped catch “the most serious offenders, including people wanted for violent assaults or for sex offences”.

According to the Metropolitan Police, the tech has led to 580 arrests for offences such as rape, domestic crime and knife crime in the space of 12 months.

The government has pointed to independent testing by the National Physical Laboratory, which it said found the tech was “accurate” and showed “no bias for ethnicity, age, or gender”.

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Liberty has welcomed the government’s decision to create a statutory framework for using facial recognition, but said that should be in place before the tech is rolled out.

“There’s no reasonable excuse to be putting even more cameras on our streets before the public have had their say and legislation is brought in to protect all of us,” said a statement.

The civil liberties charity cited how more than 1.6 million people have had their faces scanned in South Wales, mostly on football match days in Cardiff city centre.

But Lindsey Chiswick, from the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC), has said the expansion “is an excellent opportunity for policing”, and will help officers locate suspects “quickly and accurately”.

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Police ordered to consider revealing ethnicity of suspects

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Police ordered to consider revealing ethnicity of suspects

Police should consider disclosing the ethnicity and nationality of suspects when they are charged in high-profile and sensitive cases, new national guidance says.

Coming into force today, it says there must be a policing reason to release the information, such as where there are high levels of disinformation, if it will improve public safety, or if it is significantly in the public interest.

Politics Hub: Follow latest updates and analysis

A Home Office spokesperson told Sky News they will support the new guidance by authorising the release of relevant accompanying immigration information if appropriate.

The change comes after two men charged over the alleged rape of a 12-year-old girl in Nuneaton were reported to be Afghan asylum seekers, sparking protests.

Warwickshire Police did not confirm the immigration status, leading to Reform UK accusing them of a “cover-up”, something the force strongly denied.

Responding to the row, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said last week she wanted police to be more transparent, and that new guidance was being worked up.

Speaking to Sky News after the new instructions were announced, policing minister Dame Diana Johnson said “we welcome the guidance” which the government thinks is “really helpful”.

She added: “We want to be as transparent and as open as possible with the public” – and this includes releasing ethnicity and nationality unless there is “good reason not to”.

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Migration protesters face off

How high-profile cases sparked debate

When considering what information to release, police must consider contempt of court laws which aim to give defendants a fair trial, as well as media guidance from the College of Policing.

Until now, the media guidance said once a suspect has been charged, police can give out information such as their name, date of birth and address. It did not mention anything about ethnicity, nationality, or immigration status.

The Southport murders committed by Axel Rudakubana last July led to speculation about his ethnicity and immigration status, fuelling riots in many parts of the country.

While the details were not initially released in that case, when a car ploughed into crowds celebrating Liverpool’s Premier League win earlier this year, Merseyside Police were quick to say the suspect was a white British man.

In the Nuneaton case, Reform leader Nigel Farage said retaining the “basic and sober facts” was “a cover-up that in many ways is reminiscent of what happened after the Southport killings”.

Warwickshire Police said officers “did not and will not cover up such criminality”, and followed national guidance.

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Reform leader Nigel Farage argues releasing the information could prevent unrest. Pic: PA
Image:
Reform leader Nigel Farage argues releasing the information could prevent unrest. Pic: PA

How will new guidance work?

The new guidance says it is at the discretion of the police force to decide whether to release ethnicity and nationality details, and that they must consider the ethical and legal implications.

It says it is not the job of police to verify a suspect’s immigration status, which rests with the Home Office.

The advice has been developed by the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) and the College of Policing, in consultation with the Home Office and the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS).

Deputy chief constable Sam de Reya, the NPCC lead for communications and media, said: “We saw during last summer’s disorder, as well as in several recent high-profile cases, what the major, real-world consequences can be from what information police release into the public domain.

“We have to make sure our processes are fit for purpose in an age of social media speculation and where information can travel incredibly quickly across a wide range of channels.

“Disinformation and incorrect narratives can take hold in a vacuum. It is good police work for us to fill this vacuum with the facts about issues of wider public interest.”

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One year on from the Southport riots

‘A chilling message’

The guidance is interim, and will be considered as part of a wider review of the College of Policing’s authorised professional practice for media relations later this year.

Chief constable Sir Andy Marsh, the college’s CEO, said officers will continue to police “without fear or favour”.

But the guidance is likely to provoke backlash from anti-racism campaigners. Last week, the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants warned that revealing ethnicity and migration status would “send a chilling message: that some people are inherently more ‘suspect'”.

‘Public trust requires transparency’

A Home Office spokesperson told Sky News they welcome the new guidance, adding: “Public trust requires transparency and consistency from the authorities that serve them.”

They added: “The public, and police forces themselves, want greater clarity on when, why and how information is released and the legitimate and compelling reasons it may need to be withheld.

“The Home Office will support that effort by authorising the release of relevant accompanying immigration information in future cases, where it is appropriate to do so, and where the police have requested it. All cases will of course take account of consultation with the police and CPS.

“The government also asked the Law Commission at the end of February to speed up the elements of its review around the law of contempt in relation to what can be said publicly ahead of a trial.”

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Wisconsin senators file companion bill aiming to curb crypto ATM scams

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Wisconsin senators file companion bill aiming to curb crypto ATM scams

Wisconsin senators file companion bill aiming to curb crypto ATM scams

Senators in the state of Wisconsin have filed an identical bill to accompany earlier legislation filed in the state’s lower house that aims to closely regulate crypto ATMs.

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