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Polling stations have closed in by-elections that could deliver a triple blow to Rishi Sunak – with the Liberal Democrats already claiming victory in one seat.

The results from Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, and Somerton and Frome in Somerset, are expected in the early hours of Friday morning.

The three seats were left empty by outgoing Conservative MPs – former prime minister Boris Johnson, Nigel Adams, and David Warburton, who has been an independent since last year.

Follow by-election coverage live: Tories expect to lose all three by-elections, Sky News told

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Lib Dems declare victory

According to political editor Beth Rigby, Mr Sunak‘s party are bracing to lose all three constituencies.

Mr Johnson had a majority of 7,210 when Uxbridge and South Ruislip was last contested at the general election in 2019, with Labour coming in second place.

Selby and Ainsty saw Mr Adams elected in the same year with a majority of over 20,000, again with Labour as the runner-up.

And Mr Warburton’s seat of Somerton and Frome saw him get a 19,213 majority in 2019, though it was the Liberal Democrats who came the closest to him.

A Conservative spokesperson said they knew the votes were always going to be “very challenging”, especially “given the circumstances in which they were brought about”.

It is common for sitting governments to perform poorly in by-elections, but it is also common for parties to talk down their chances, so they can frame a positive result as an unexpected success.

The Liberal Democrats claimed victory in Somerton and Frome before midnight – although of third of ballots were still waiting to be counted – overturning a majority of close to 20,000.

Christine Jardine, MP for Edinburgh West, told Sky News: “We’ve won this quite decisively, the Conservative vote is just collapsing, and I think that’s indicative of how people here feel about how the government has let them down over the past five years.”

She added that the Lib Dems are experiencing a “new period of growth” and they have “romped home”.

Did Labour fail to manage expectations in Selby and Ainsty?


Sam Coates

Sam Coates

Deputy political editor

@SamCoatesSky

Of the three by-elections, the result in Selby and Ainsty – a Labour vs Conservative contest – is the most interesting.

I’m hearing both sides hope they’ve won it – it’s going to be close.

A Tory loss would mean Labour overturning the biggest ever Tory majority at a by-election – a record last set in 1990 in Mid Staffordshire.

I’m stunned Labour didn’t do better expectation management – they allowed the (Tory) idea to take hold that a win was priced in.

They didn’t push back at this very hard.

Now they’re having to admit they don’t know.

A Labour spokesman said they “don’t know if we’ve made it over the line” in the other two seats – but claimed that “Keir Starmer’s leadership of a changed Labour Party, back in the service of working people, has seen voters put their trust in us”.

While the cost of living was the main factor in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, local factors – specifically the ULEZ expansion – understood to have dampened Labour support in the seat, with party insiders believing the vote could still go either way.

Labour MP Steve Reed told Sky News at the Uxbridge and South Ruislip count that he was “not going to predict” which was the vote would go – and claimed the election was “always going to be close”.

Ballot boxes began to be opened and votes counted from 10pm.

Results are not expected until the small hours of the morning at the earliest – especially if the results are close.

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Child poverty strategy unveiled – but not everyone’s happy

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Starmer wants to lift half a million children out of poverty - but does his plan go far enough?

A new long-awaited child poverty strategy is promising to lift half a million children out of poverty by the end of this parliament – but critics have branded it unambitious. 

The headline announcement in the government’s plan is the pledge to lift the two-child benefit cap, announced in Rachel Reeves’s budget last week.

It also includes:

• Providing upfront childcare support for parents on universal credit returning to work
• An £8m fund to end the placement of families in bed and breakfasts beyond a six-week limit
• Reforms to cut the cost of baby formula
• A new legal duty on councils to notify schools, health visitors, and GPs when a child is placed in temporary accommodation

Many of the measures have previously been announced.

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Two-child cap ‘a real victory for the left’

The government also pointed to its plan in the budget to cut energy bills by £150 a year, and its previously promised £950m boost to a local authority housing fund, which it says will deliver 5,000 high-quality homes for better temporary accommodation.

Downing Street said the strategy would lift 550,000 children out of poverty by 2030, saying that would be the biggest reduction in a single parliament since records began.

More on Poverty

But charities had been hoping for a 10-year strategy and argue the plan lacks ambition.

A record 4.5 million children (about 31%) are living in poverty in the UK – 900,000 more since 2010/11, according to government figures.

Phillip Anderson, the Strategic Director for External Affairs at the National Children’s Bureau (NCB), told Sky News: “Abolishing the two-child limit is a hell of a centre piece, but beyond that it’s mainly a summary of previously announced policies and commitments.

“The really big thing for me is it misses the opportunity to talk about the longer term. It was supposed to be a 10-year strategy, we wanted to see real ambition and ideally legally binding targets for reducing poverty.

“The government itself says there will still be around four million children living in poverty after these measures and the strategy has very little to say to them.”

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‘A budget for benefits street’

‘Budget for benefits street’ row

The biggest measure in the strategy is the plan to lift the two-child benefit cap from April. This is estimated to lift 450,000 children out of poverty by 2030, at a cost of £3bn.

The government has long been under pressure from backbench Labour MPs to scrap the cap, with most experts arguing that it is the quickest, most cost-effective way to drive-down poverty this parliament.

The cap, introduced by Conservative chancellor George Osborne in 2017, means parents can only claim universal credit or tax credits for their first two children. It meant the average affected household losing £4,300 per year, the Institute for Fiscal Studies calculated in 2024.

The government argues that a failure to tackle child poverty holds back the economy, and young people at school, cutting their employment and earning prospects in later life.

However, the Conservatives argue parents on benefits should have to make the same financial choices about children as everyone else.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: “Work is the best way out poverty but since this government took office, unemployment has risen every single month and this budget for Benefits Street will only make the situation worse. “

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OBR leak: This has happened before

‘Bring back Sure Start’

Lord Bird, a crossbench peer who founded the Big Issue and grew up in poverty, said while he supported the lifting of the cap there needed to be “more joined up thinking” across government for a longer-term strategy.

He has been pushing for the creation of a government ministry of “poverty prevention and cure”, and for legally binding targets on child poverty.

“You have to be able to measure yourself, you can’t have the government marking its own homework,” he told Sky News.

Lord Bird also said he was a “great believer” in resurrecting Sure Start centres and expanding them beyond early years.

The New Labour programme offered support services for pre-school children and their parents and is widely seen to have improved health and educational outcomes. By its peak in 2009-2010 there were 3,600 centres – the majority of which closed following cuts by the subsequent Conservative government.

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Lord Bird on the ‘great distraction’ from child poverty

PM to meet families

Sir Keir Starmer’s government have since announced 1,000 Best Start Family Hubs – but many Labour MPs feel this announcement went under the radar and ministers missed a trick in not calling them “Sure Starts” as it is a name people are familiar with.

The prime minister is expected to meet families and children in Wales on Friday, alongside the Welsh First Minister, to make the case for his strategy and meet those he hopes will benefit from it.

Several other charities have urged ministers to go further. Both Crisis and Shelter called for the government to unfreeze housing benefit and build more social rent homes, while the Children’s Commissioner for England, Dame Rachel de Souza, said that “if we are to end child poverty – not just reduce it” measures like free bus travel for school-age children would be needed.

The strategy comes after the government set up a child poverty taskforce in July 2024, which was initially due to report back in May. The taskforce’s findings have not yet been published – only the government’s response.

Sir Keir said: “Too many children are growing up in poverty, held back from getting on in life, and too many families are struggling without the basics: a secure home, warm meals and the support they need to make ends meet.

“I will not stand by and watch that happen, because the cost of doing nothing is too high for children, for families and for Britain.”

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Did Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves mislead us?

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Did Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves mislead us?

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

The chancellor is being accused of “lying” over what she knew and when ahead of her budget – so did Rachel Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer actually mislead the public?

Beth walks us through a detailed timeline of the OBR forecasts, the so-called “black hole”, and why journalists now feel they were given only half the story.

Ruth and Harriet weigh in on political honesty, the dangers of selective briefing, and why trust between the government, the media and the public is fraying fast.

Plus, former Number 10 director of communications Matthew Doyle joins the trio to discuss Labour’s early months in power, the turbulence around political messaging, and how governments lose (and can rebuild) narrative control.

Send us your messages and Christmas-themed questions on WhatsApp at 07934 200 444 or email electoraldysfunction@sky.uk.

And if you didn’t know, you can also watch Beth, Harriet and Ruth on YouTube.

St. James’s Place sponsors Electoral Dysfunction on Sky News, learn more here.

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Ex-Signature Bank execs launch blockchain-powered bank N3XT

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Ex-Signature Bank execs launch blockchain-powered bank N3XT

A group of former executives from the collapsed crypto-friendly Signature Bank has launched a new blockchain-based, state-chartered bank called N3XT, with the goal of enabling instant 24-hour payments.

N3XT said on Thursday that it aims to settle payments instantly at any time using a private blockchain and offers programmable payments through smart contracts. The company added that its systems have been designed for interoperability with stablecoins, utility tokens, and other digital assets.

Signature Bank founder ​​Scott Shay founded N3XT, which will operate under a Wyoming Special Purpose Depository Institution (SPDI) charter and will not offer lending services.

Signature Bank was one of three crypto-friendly banks, along with Silicon Valley Bank and  Silvergate Bank, that collapsed in the 2023 US banking crisis due to a bank run and ties to the then-rapidly falling crypto market.