Rishi Sunak avoids 3-0 defeat with ironic win in Uxbridge – but one result is deeply concerning for the Tories

Published

2 years ago

July 21, 2023

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It is ironic that the by-election result that helped Rishi Sunak avoid a 3-0 defeat should come courtesy of the Uxbridge and South Ruislip voters who elected Boris Johnson.

On paper, this was the hardest constituency to hold on to – requiring only a 7.5-point swing from the Conservatives to put it in Labour hands.

When we learned that Labour had requested a recount, the game was up. The Conservative majority was five votes short of 500 – the swing against them 6.7 points.

Labour’s critics will point out that such a swing applied nationally would see the Conservatives remaining the largest party in a hung parliament at the next general election.

But for the Tories, with no viable partners in Parliament, being the largest party would still likely leave them out of power.

The simplest explanation of why Uxbridge should behave so differently to the other two by-elections is a single issue: ULEZ.

The London mayor’s decision to extend the Ultra Low Emission Zone to the entire London region has gone down badly with voters who see it as a Labour-imposed tax on those suffering most from the cost of living crisis.

The Labour candidate did his best to distance himself from Sadiq Khan’s policy, but obviously not to the satisfaction of enough of Uxbridge’s voters.

Other explanations will jockey for attention. One is that a dispute over taxation affecting different wings of the Labour Party gives hope to the Conservatives going into the next general election.

Labour’s tax and spend policies will undergo forensic examination. Another explanation is that the constituency is unusual, a rare Leave-voting London area with atypical demographic changes.

But without doubt, the outcome in Selby and Ainsty – a constituency lying close by Mr Sunak’s own seat – is deeply concerning for the Conservatives.

Previously, the largest Tory majority overturned by Labour at a by-election was 14,654 votes in the Mid-Staffordshire by-election held 33 years ago.

Labour’s winner this time, a youthful Keir Mather, demolished the more than 20,000 majority and replaced it with a 4,000-vote majority of his own.

This victory sends shockwaves throughout the Conservative parliamentary party and gives Labour a huge boost.

The swing to Labour in Selby is the second largest in a Conservative seat since the war – only the mammoth 29-point swing in Dudley West achieved by Blair’s New Labour in 1994 is larger.

Conservative incumbents, already pre-occupied with boundary changes affecting their constituencies, will look at their own majorities and wonder whether early retirement is a better option than waiting for the voters to ditch them – joining the 44 Tory MPs who have already declared they won’t be standing again.

Conservative MPs in seats that have stayed loyal to the party for a century – like Aylesbury, Basingstoke and Macclesfield – will fear Labour’s Selby advance.

And if these incumbents are worried, what about their colleagues representing seats that fell to Labour in 1997, a defeat so devastating it took the party the next four general elections to win another overall Commons majority?

There are so many members of the Conservative parliamentary party impacted by the Selby result that it is inconceivable spinning the Uxbridge outcome will override their concerns with the party’s leadership.

Humiliation for Tories in Somerset

The Liberal Democrats were so confident of their win in Somerton and Frome that they announced it with barely a vote counted.

The swing of 29 percentage points is similar to those in other by-election seats won by the Liberal Democrats in parliament.

The Conservative by-election vote share, 26%, is thirteen points lower than its previous low point seen at the 1997 general election.

This humiliation follows local elections that brought defeat for many Conservative councillors and delivered control of Somerset council to the Liberal Democrats.

Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives are the collapse in Somerton’s turnout, suggesting supporters may have abstained, and that Lib Dem national poll ratings are currently struggling to reach double figures.

That is unlikely to settle the nerves of Conservative incumbents in the West Country – for example those elsewhere in Somerset in Wells and Yeovil, and further afield in Devon and Cornwall, who sense a Lib Dem revival is under way.

Generalising from by-election results is always a dangerous business. But when the outcomes disagree as much as these do, then it’s impossible to see a consensus emerging.

Both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir will try to convince their parties that the results give cause for optimism.

Significant numbers in both parties won’t believe them.

Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics, University of Exeter. Professor Michael Thrasher is associate member, Nuffield College.

Politics

A16z Crypto and advocacy group call for NFT, DeFi app safe harbor at SEC

Published

9 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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A16z Crypto and advocacy group call for NFT, DeFi app safe harbor at SEC

The two entities requested that the financial regulator provide a “safe harbor” for certain applications under the SEC’s broker-dealer registration requirements.

Politics

Labour MP Tulip Siddiq hits out at ‘farce’ anti-corruption trial in Bangladesh

Published

16 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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Labour MP Tulip Siddiq hits out at 'farce' anti-corruption trial in Bangladesh

Labour MP Tulip Siddiq has called her anti-corruption trial a “farce” which is “driven by a clear political agenda” as proceedings began on Wednesday in Bangladesh.

In a statement seen by Sky News, Ms Siddiq has said the case was “built on fabricated accusations”.

Ms Siddiq was formerly the UK government’s anti-corruption minister but stood down over accusations she illegally received a plot of land in a new high-end development on the outskirts of Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital.

This came after her aunt, Sheikh Hasina, was ousted as prime minister last year and replaced by the current government.

Hundreds of protesters were killed during the uprising and Ms Hasina now faces charges including crimes against humanity.

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Ms Siddiq previously denied all the allegations against her through lawyers, saying the prosecution is politically motivated.

Bangladesh’s Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) claims the Labour MP received a 7,200-square-foot plot in a diplomatic zone through “abuse of power and influence”.

The trial in Dhaka began in the early hours of UK time, with Ms Siddiq on trial alongside her mother and siblings. The family are being tried in absentia as they have not returned to Bangladesh for the proceedings.

The court opened with ACC prosecutors laying out the case against Ms Siddiq.

In her statement, Ms Siddiq said: “The so-called trial now under way in Dhaka is nothing more than a farce, built on fabricated accusations and driven by a clear political vendetta.

“Over the past year, the allegations against me have repeatedly shifted, yet I have never been contacted by the Bangladeshi authorities once. I have never received a court summons, no official communication, and no evidence.

“If this were a genuine legal process, the authorities would have engaged with me or my legal team, responded to our formal correspondence, and presented the evidence they claim to hold.

“Instead, they have peddled false and vexatious allegations that have been briefed to the media but never formally put to me by investigators.

“Even my offer to meet Bangladesh’s chief adviser Muhammad Yunus during his recent visit to London was refused. Such conduct is wholly incompatible with the principles of a fair trial that we uphold in the UK.

“I have been clear from the outset that I have done nothing wrong and will respond to any credible evidence that is presented to me. Continuing to smear my name to score political points is both baseless and damaging.”

Sky News has contacted the Bangladesh authorities for a response.

A separate anti-corruption allegation into Ms Siddiq’s family has also been launched, with allegations they were involved in brokering a 2013 deal with Russia for a nuclear power plant in Bangladesh, in which large sums of money were said to have been embezzled.

Ms Siddiq’s aunt, Ms Hasina, was ousted last year following student protests, having been in power for more than a decade. She has since fled to India.

Hundreds of protesters were killed during the uprising and Ms Hasina now faces charges including crimes against humanity.

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Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus took over as interim leader and vowed to prosecute Ms Hasina.

Allegations have also been made about Ms Siddiq and a house she rents in North London, which is owned by a businessman reportedly linked to Ms Hasina’s Awami League Party.

Politics

What is former minister Tulip Siddiq on trial for in Bangladesh?

Published

16 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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What is former minister Tulip Siddiq on trial for in Bangladesh?

Former minister Tulip Siddiq has found herself in the spotlight again as she faces a corruption trial in Bangladesh.

The former anti-corruption minister’s trial is expected to begin on Wednesday, but she will not be there.

A wider trial began on Monday after 27 people were indicted last week by Bangladeshi courts. They include Ms Siddiq, her aunt, other family members, and current and former officials.

Ms Siddiq resigned from her Treasury job in the UK on 14 January after facing calls to step down over links to her aunt, the ousted former Bangladesh prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, who is being investigated by Bangladesh’s anti-corruption commission.

Sir Keir Starmer’s ethics watchdog found the MP, who was born in London, had not breached the ministerial code, but told the PM: “You will want to consider her ongoing responsibilities.”

The 42-year-old MP for Hampstead and Highgate insists she has done nothing wrong and denies all the claims.

Sky News takes a look at the allegation behind the court case.

What is the allegation against Tulip Siddiq?

The current trial relates to just one of those claims – that she illegally allocated 7,200 sq ft of land to her family.

However, Ms Siddiq said she has not been informed of the specific charges she is facing or received a summons to appear.

An arrest warrant for Ms Siddiq was issued by Bangladesh in April, with the MP saying she only became aware of it when it was reported in the media.

Bangladesh’s anti-corruption commission alleges Ms Siddiq was involved in the illegal allocation of plots of land in the diplomatic zone of a luxury development in Purbachal near Dhaka to her mother, sister and brother.

An affidavit, seen by Sky News, states that while serving as a British MP, she “exerted pressure and influence” on her aunt to get planning officials to appoint them the land.

Investigators claim planning officials were bribed and pressured into fraudulently allocating the land.

Bangladesh prosecutor Mir Ahmed Ali Salam said if Ms Siddiq is found guilty, Bangladeshi authorities could submit an Interpol Red Notice, which alerts law enforcement around the world to surrender a person to a certain country.

The UK and Bangladesh do not have a formal extradition treaty – but extradition is still possible through a request that is decided by the home secretary.

What has Tulip Siddiq said?

About the Bangladesh trial:

Ms Siddiq has denied all the allegations and sees the trial as a politically motivated smear campaign, calling it “targeted and baseless”.

She told The Guardian she is “collateral damage” of a “feud between Muhammad Yunus and my aunt”.

“These are wider forces that I’m battling against. There’s no doubt people have done wrong things in Bangladesh, and they should be punished for it. It’s just I’m not one of them,” she added.

“I feel a bit like I’m trapped in this Kafkaesque nightmare where I’ve been put on trial and I genuinely haven’t found out what the allegations are and what the trial is about.”

Sky News understands her lawyer requested to attend the trial in Bangladesh on her behalf but was denied access.

We also understand the Bangladeshi authorities did not tell Ms Siddiq of a date change for the trial, and she only found out when Sky News contacted her lawyer about it.

In June, Ms Siddiq accused Professor Yunus of conducting an “orchestrated campaign” to damage her reputation and “interfere with UK politics”.

In a legal letter seen by Sky News in June, the MP also said comments made by Professor Yunus in a Sky News interview have prejudiced her right to a fair investigation, meaning the corruption inquiries should be dropped.

Ms Siddiq has also denied brokering a deal with Russia for the nuclear power plant and reportedly told a UK government official she was the target of a “political hit job”.

She also said: “I’m not here to defend my aunt.”

About her resignation:

Sir Keir said on 6 January that Ms Siddiq had referred herself to his independent adviser on ministerial standards, Sir Laurie Magnus.

She had been due to join a delegation heading to China with Chancellor Rachel Reeves, but remained in the UK to clear her name.

In her letter to Sir Laurie, she said: “In recent weeks, I have been the subject of media reporting, much of it inaccurate, about my financial affairs and my family’s links to the former government of Bangladesh.

“I am clear that I have done nothing wrong.

“However, for the avoidance of doubt, I would like you to independently establish the facts about these matters.

“I will obviously ensure you have all the information you need to do this.”

Announcing her resignation, Ms Siddiq said an independent review “has confirmed that I have not breached the ministerial code and there is no evidence to suggest I have acted improperly”.

“Nonetheless, to avoid distraction for the government, I have resigned as city minister,” she added.

The MP has previously said she and her aunt never spoke about politics.

However, Sky News discovered blog posts she wrote in 2008 and 2009, when she was a Labour activist, describing campaigning with her aunt in Bangladesh’s general election and celebrating her victory.

The Times also reported that the MP’s Labour Party flyers and a thank you note to local Labour Party members after she was elected as an MP were found in the palace in Dhaka that belonged to her aunt.

Who is Sheikh Hasina?

Sheikh Hasina was Bangladesh’s prime minister for 20 years – the world’s longest-serving female head of government – but in August was deposed following a mass uprising after elections widely criticised as being fraudulent.

Her premiership was marked by rampant corruption, with Ms Hasina being detained on extortion charges and serving jail time.

Human Rights Watch has said it documented widespread enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings during her time in power.

But the 77-year-old was also praised for giving nearly a million Rohingya fleeing genocide in Myanmar refuge and assistance in 2017.

Following last summer’s uprising, she fled to India, where she is in self-imposed exile, and is facing an investigation by Bangladesh’s anti-corruption commission.

Most of Ms Hasina’s family were assassinated in 1975 during a coup d’etat but she, her husband and sister, Sheikh Rehana – Ms Siddiq’s mother – were in Europe at the time. They were offered political asylum by the then Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi and lived in Delhi for six years before returning home in 1981 with Ms Hasani as president of the Awami League party.

Ms Siddiq’s mother lived in exile in the UK during the 1980s and in 2016 was made a local councillor representing the Awami League in Dhaka. Her son, Ms Hasina’s son and daughter, are also councillors there.

Ms Hasina remains in India and will be tried in absentia over allegations of crimes against humanity.

How have Labour reacted?

Sir Keir said Ms Siddiq “acted entirely properly” by referring herself to the ethics watchdog to “establish the facts”, and added he had “confidence in her”.

On receiving her resignation letter, Sir Keir said he accepted it “with sadness”, adding: “I also wish to be clear that Sir Laurie Magnus as Independent Adviser has assured me he found no breach of the ministerial code and no evidence of financial improprieties on your part.”

He praised her for making the “difficult decision” to resign nonetheless and said “the door remains open for you” going forward.

Wycombe MP Emma Reynolds replaced Ms Siddiq as a minister, while Torsten Bell took up Ms Reynolds’ role in the Department for Work and Pensions.

What have the Conservatives said?

Ahead of Ms Siddiq’s resignation, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch called for Sir Keir to sack Ms Siddiq, adding: “He appointed his personal friend as anti-corruption minister and she is accused herself of corruption.

“Now the government of Bangladesh is raising serious concerns about her links to the regime of Sheikh Hasina.”

When the Labour MP resigned, Ms Badenoch accused Sir Keir of “dither and delay to protect his close friend”, saying it had become clear over the weekend her position “was completely untenable”.

How has Bangladesh reacted?

Bangladesh’s anti-money laundering agency asked the country’s banks for details of accounts and transactions linked to Ms Siddiq, her aunt, mother, her brother and cousins.

Her allies insist she has no bank accounts outside the UK, and her spokesperson said she has not been contacted by the Bangladeshi authorities.

Nobel peace-prize winning economist Muhammad Yunus, who is leading Bangladesh’s interim government, said the London properties used by Ms Siddiq should be investigated and returned if she is found to have benefited from “plain robbery”.

Following her resignation, Professor Yunus said there will be a thorough investigation into properties and assets “tied to stolen Bangladeshi funds, including those linked to individuals with connections to the previous regime” and if it is proven they have benefited from embezzlement “we expect those assets to be returned to Bangladesh, where they rightfully belong”.

“Tulip Siddiq may not have entirely understood the source of the money and property that she was enjoying in London, but she knows now and should seek forgiveness from the people of Bangladesh,” he added.