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Two by-elections lost, one held by the Tories, but the biggest lesson of the last extraordinary few hours is apparent by looking at the swings against Rishi Sunak’s party: that they suggest the Conservative Party is on course to lose Number 10 at the next election.

This does not mean the situation isn’t salvageable. But it will be hard.

Politics latest: By-elections see two huge Tory majorities overturned

No single by-election result can be used to predict the result at next year’s poll, likely next autumn.

And there is plenty of nuance and questions for all three main party leaders.

And it is too early to say whether Johnny Mercer was unwise to compare the new Labour MP for Selby to a member of The Inbetweeners on account of his youth.

By election winner and Labour Party candidate Keir Mather speaks at Selby Leisure Centre, North Yorkshire after the results were given for the Selby and Ainsty by-election, called following the resignation of incumbent MP Nigel Adams. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS ByElections. Photo credit should read: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
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By-election winner – Labour’s Keir Mather

But it’s worth focusing on the overall picture.

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All three by-election results show a swing away from the Conservatives: 6.7% to Labour in Uxbridge, 23.7% to Labour in Selby and 29% to the Liberal Democrats in Somerset in Somerton and Frome.

All three of these would be enough to mean Rishi Sunak would no longer be in Number 10: it would take a swing of just 3.2% for the Tories to lose their majority and – given the lack of potential coalition partners in parliament – handing the keys of Downing Street to Labour.

Even Labour’s weakest result in Uxbridge puts the Labour Party within touching distance of the 7% swing that would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party is the largest party in a hung parliament.

It would take a 12% swing from Tory to Labour for Sir Keir to get an overall majority and to govern without the help of MPs from other parties.

So it is for the Tories to turn around the supertanker of unpopularity, something which supporters of the PM believe is possible if we see more positive economic data and the party behaves.

But the British public never delivers clean results, and there was much nuance in the verdict delivered by the constituents.

In Selby and Ainsty, the Labour result broke records – it saw Labour overturning the biggest Tory majority since the Second World War, and the party is evidently delighted.

However Labour victory was delivered by over 20,000 Tory voters staying at home. The Labour vote rose just a touch.

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Johnny Mercer hits out after Keir Mather was elected as the new Labour MP for Selby and Ainsty

But come next year, will the 20,000 return to the Tories, switch to Labour or stay at home? That question, and questions like it, will determine the future of British politics.

Meanwhile, the Labour result in Uxbridge will be seen as a disappointment for many in the party, but is far from disastrous.

The margin of loss was small, and there was still a swing from the Tories to Labour big enough to see the Tories lose Downing Street if replicated in a general election.

Indeed it is a curiosity in this election that Labour didn’t challenge more robustly Tory claims they were on course to lose all three seats, given the Tories holding on to one was always a distinct possibility.

The biggest question will be how much this galvanises the Tories to amplify their attacks on Labour’s green policy – and whether Labour starts to tiptoe away from its previous positions – as it appeared to do over the ULEZ congestion charge.

Finally the Lib Dems pulled off a stunning victory in the South West in Somerton and Frome, taking back the seat once held by David Heath but lost in 2015 at the end of five years of coalition government that saw the Lib Dems in power.

But the Lib Dems are brilliant at pouring resources into by-elections – will they be able to repeat such results when resources are spread more thinly?

The failure of Labour to capture Uxbridge is probably enough to stave off open panic in the Tory party. But the picture for Mr Sunak remains ominous.

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Concessions to welfare reforms to be revealed after Labour backbench rebellion forces government retreat

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Concessions to welfare reforms to be revealed after Labour backbench rebellion forces government retreat

Changes to welfare reforms, forced on the government by rebel Labour MPs, are being revealed today ahead of a crucial vote.

The original bill restricted eligibility for the personal independence payment (pip) and cut the health-related element of universal credit (UC).

The government, which insisted welfare costs were becoming unsustainable, was forced into a U-turn after 126 Labour backbenchers signed an amendment that would have halted the bill at its first Commons hurdle.

Explainer: What are the welfare concessions?

While the amendment is expected to be withdrawn, after changes that appeased some Labour MPs, others are still unhappy and considering backing a similar amendment to be tabled today.

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Starmer defends welfare U-turn

Here are the main changes to the UC and pip bill:

• current pip claimants will keep their benefits; stricter eligibility requirements will only apply to new claims from November 2026
• a review of the pip assessment, which will have input from disabled people
• existing recipients of the health-related element of UC will have their incomes protected in real terms

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Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said in a statement that the legislation now aims to deliver a “fairer, more compassionate system” ahead of the second reading and vote on Tuesday.

“We must build a welfare system that provides security for those who cannot work and the right support for those who can. Too often, disabled people feel trapped, worried that if they try to work, they could lose the support they depend on.

“That is why we are taking action to remove those barriers, support disabled people to live with dignity and independence, and open routes into employment for those who want to pursue it.

“This is about delivering a fairer, more compassionate system as part of our Plan for Change which supports people to thrive, whatever their circumstances.”

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall
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Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall insists welfare reforms will create ‘a fairer, more compassionate system’. Pic: PA

On Saturday, Sir Keir Starmer said fixing the UK’s welfare system was a “moral imperative”. The government claimed cuts to sickness and disability benefits would shave £5bn off the welfare bill and get more people into work.

The Resolution Foundation believes the concessions could cost as much as £3bn, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that the changes make tax rises more likely.

Read more:
Starmer’s most damaging U-turn yet
Liz Kendall defends welfare retreat

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Health Secretary Wes Streeting told Sky News that welfare bill changes have put Labour in a much better position ahead of tomorrow’s vote.

On Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Streeting said: “There were things that we didn’t get right, we’ve put right, and there’ll be a debate about future amendments and things, I’m sure, as it goes through in the usual way.”

Streeting talking to Trevor Phillips
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Talking to Sky News about the welfare reforms, Health Secretary Wes Streeting said there were things Labour ‘didn’t get right’

On the same programme, shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately repeatedly refused to say whether the Conservatives would back the bill, but would review the proposals after the minister’s statement later.

“We have said that if there are more savings that actually bring the welfare bill down, if they’ll get more people into work, and if they commit to using the savings to avoid tax cuts in the autumn, which looks highly unlikely at the moment, then they have our support.”

The Liberal Democrats plan to vote against the bill and have called for the government to speed up access-to-work decisions to help people enter the workforce.

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Welfare concessions should give people ‘peace of mind’, says Wes Streeting

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Welfare concessions should give people 'peace of mind', says Wes Streeting

Wes Streeting has suggested he is confident the government will now win a crunch vote on welfare cuts after Sir Keir Starmer made a number of concessions to prevent a damaging rebellion.

The health secretary told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the alterations to the controversial welfare bill meant those in receipt of benefits now had “peace of mind”.

Asked whether he was confident the government would now win a vote on the reforms scheduled for Tuesday, Mr Streeting said: “Yes.

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“I think the changes that were made this week have put us in a much better position, not just on the vote on Tuesday, but on the substance of the package – because as a result of the changes, it means anyone watching this morning who’s in receipt of PIP, Personal Independence Payments, now has the peace of mind of knowing that their situation is protected.”

It comes after the prime minister carried out the most significant U-turn of his premiership at the end of the week in order to quell a growing rebellion over his welfare package.

More than 120 Labour MPs had signalled they were prepared to vote down the bill next week after they signed an amendment that would have stopped its progress through parliament – citing concerns about the impact on the most vulnerable and the lack of proper consultation with disabled groups.

More on Benefits

The scale of the rebellion – and the fact it spanned all wings of the party – alarmed Downing Street and led to Sir Keir making a number of changes to diffuse the anger.

Originally, the bill set out to tighten the eligibility criteria for PIP – money that is given to people, some of whom are in work, who have extra care or mobility needs as a result of a disability.

People who claim it are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, which influences how much they will receive.

Currently claimants need to score a minimum of eight points across a range of tasks to qualify for the daily living element (there is a mobility element that is not affected by the plans). Under the new rules people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify.

However, the changes made by Sir Keir mean existing PIP claimants will now be exempted from the stricter new criteria.

Alterations to Universal Credit, another type of benefit, mean that the health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications, as opposed to existing ones.

Read more:
What are the concessions to the welfare bill – and will MPs back it?
Welfare has been Starmer’s most damaging U-turn yet

Mr Streeting declined to say whether he thought those who decide to vote against the bill should lose the party whip, which would force them to sit as an independent MP in the Commons.

He said it was “not my decision”, but added that there was an “expectation that Labour MPs vote for the whip”.

In a series of interviews over the weekend, the prime minister acknowledged there had been some mishandling of the welfare debate and said he was “heavily focused” on world affairs before he was forced to U-turn on his welfare bill.

In a piece in The Sunday Times, Sir Keir said he was occupied with the G7 and NATO summits and the escalating tensions in the Middle East for much of the past two weeks.

“Getting it right is more important than ploughing on with a package which doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome,” he said, adding that all the decisions made were his and that “I take ownership of them”.

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PM and ministers now admit welfare reforms went too far

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PM and ministers now admit welfare reforms went too far

It was only 10 days ago that embattled Welfare Secretary Liz Kendall, trying to convince MPs to back her reforms, said ministers were “firm in our convictions”.

People on Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and universal credit were too often being “written off”, while the welfare bill was becoming unsustainable.

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After an unprecedented rebellion by Labour MPs forced the prime minister into a significant retreat, today sees an interesting shift in those convictions.

Ms Kendall’s colleague Wes Streeting, who was drafted onto calls with angry backbenchers, tells Sky News he didn’t want disabled people in his constituency surgeries on a Friday, telling him they were worse off when that was not the intention.

This is exactly what many Labour MPs and disability groups were arguing was inevitable if current claimants were stripped of their benefits.

Sir Keir Starmer, in a series of Sunday newspaper interviews in which he reflects on mistakes, says he now believes there was no point ploughing ahead with something which “doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome”.

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What are the concessions to the welfare bill – and will MPs back it?

Having rushed forward these reforms to save £5bn in the spending review, it now seems ministers are admitting the package needed more thought.

The welfare bill is rising sharply, and many voters broadly support the idea of tackling it.

But even if the draft legislation, which will affect new benefit claimants only, is voted through (and that’s still an “if'”, with dozens of Labour MPs still weighing it up), this debacle – for many MPs at least – goes to the heart of whose side the government is on.

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