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Two by-elections lost, one held by the Tories, but the biggest lesson of the last extraordinary few hours is apparent by looking at the swings against Rishi Sunak’s party: that they suggest the Conservative Party is on course to lose Number 10 at the next election.

This does not mean the situation isn’t salvageable. But it will be hard.

Politics latest: By-elections see two huge Tory majorities overturned

No single by-election result can be used to predict the result at next year’s poll, likely next autumn.

And there is plenty of nuance and questions for all three main party leaders.

And it is too early to say whether Johnny Mercer was unwise to compare the new Labour MP for Selby to a member of The Inbetweeners on account of his youth.

By election winner and Labour Party candidate Keir Mather speaks at Selby Leisure Centre, North Yorkshire after the results were given for the Selby and Ainsty by-election, called following the resignation of incumbent MP Nigel Adams. Picture date: Friday July 21, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS ByElections. Photo credit should read: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
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By-election winner – Labour’s Keir Mather

But it’s worth focusing on the overall picture.

More on Keir Starmer

All three by-election results show a swing away from the Conservatives: 6.7% to Labour in Uxbridge, 23.7% to Labour in Selby and 29% to the Liberal Democrats in Somerset in Somerton and Frome.

All three of these would be enough to mean Rishi Sunak would no longer be in Number 10: it would take a swing of just 3.2% for the Tories to lose their majority and – given the lack of potential coalition partners in parliament – handing the keys of Downing Street to Labour.

Even Labour’s weakest result in Uxbridge puts the Labour Party within touching distance of the 7% swing that would mean Sir Keir Starmer’s party is the largest party in a hung parliament.

It would take a 12% swing from Tory to Labour for Sir Keir to get an overall majority and to govern without the help of MPs from other parties.

So it is for the Tories to turn around the supertanker of unpopularity, something which supporters of the PM believe is possible if we see more positive economic data and the party behaves.

But the British public never delivers clean results, and there was much nuance in the verdict delivered by the constituents.

In Selby and Ainsty, the Labour result broke records – it saw Labour overturning the biggest Tory majority since the Second World War, and the party is evidently delighted.

However Labour victory was delivered by over 20,000 Tory voters staying at home. The Labour vote rose just a touch.

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Johnny Mercer hits out after Keir Mather was elected as the new Labour MP for Selby and Ainsty

But come next year, will the 20,000 return to the Tories, switch to Labour or stay at home? That question, and questions like it, will determine the future of British politics.

Meanwhile, the Labour result in Uxbridge will be seen as a disappointment for many in the party, but is far from disastrous.

The margin of loss was small, and there was still a swing from the Tories to Labour big enough to see the Tories lose Downing Street if replicated in a general election.

Indeed it is a curiosity in this election that Labour didn’t challenge more robustly Tory claims they were on course to lose all three seats, given the Tories holding on to one was always a distinct possibility.

The biggest question will be how much this galvanises the Tories to amplify their attacks on Labour’s green policy – and whether Labour starts to tiptoe away from its previous positions – as it appeared to do over the ULEZ congestion charge.

Finally the Lib Dems pulled off a stunning victory in the South West in Somerton and Frome, taking back the seat once held by David Heath but lost in 2015 at the end of five years of coalition government that saw the Lib Dems in power.

But the Lib Dems are brilliant at pouring resources into by-elections – will they be able to repeat such results when resources are spread more thinly?

The failure of Labour to capture Uxbridge is probably enough to stave off open panic in the Tory party. But the picture for Mr Sunak remains ominous.

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What are Sir Keir Starmer’s new immigration rules?

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What are Sir Keir Starmer's new immigration rules?

Sir Keir Starmer has promised to bring down migration numbers by tightening up the rules on those allowed to come to the UK.

The prime minister promised his new plan will reduce net migration – the difference between immigration and emigration – by the end of this parliament in 2029.

Details of the plans have been published in a white paper, a government document that outlines policy proposals before being introduced as legislation.

Politics latest: Starmer makes migration vow as he unveils crackdown

Sky News has combed through the white paper to bring you the details.

Language requirements

All visa routes will require people to have a certain level of English proficiency.

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People coming with the main visa holders – dependents – will also have to have a basic understanding of English, which they currently do not.

The level of proficiency needed depends on the visa, with a skilled worker visa requiring at least upper intermediate level. Currently, it requires just an “intermediate” level.

To extend visas, people will have to show progression in their English.

Keir Starmer during a press conference on the Immigration White Paper in the Downing Street Briefing Room.
Pic: PA
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Keir Starmer announced the changes at a podium with ‘securing Britain’s future’ on the front. Pic: PA

Settled status

Currently, people have to live in the UK for five years before they can gain settled status.

Under the new plan, they will have to live in the UK for 10 years.

However, “high-contributing” individuals such as doctors and nurses could be allowed to apply for settled status after five years.

A new bereaved parent visa will be created so those in the UK who have a British or settled child that dies can get settled status immediately.

Settled status gives people the right to work and live in the UK for as long as they like, and provides them with the same rights as citizens, such as healthcare and welfare and the right to bring family members to live in the UK.

People with settled status can then choose to apply for British citizenship.

Read more:
Restricting staffing during shortage has care sector worried
UK-US trade deal ‘isn’t worth the paper it’s written on’

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Sky’s Sam Coates questions PM on migration

British citizenship

People can qualify sooner for citizenship by contributing to UK society and the economy, like settled status.

The Life in the UK test will be reformed.

Social care visa

This visa, which allowed care workers to come to the UK due to a shortage, will not exist anymore.

There will be a transition period until 2028 when visa extensions and switching to the visa for those already here will be allowed.

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‘We risk becoming an island of strangers’

Skilled worker visa

People wanting to come to the UK on a skilled worker visa must now have at least an undergraduate university degree. The minimum was previously A-levels.

There will also be tighter restrictions on recruitment from overseas for jobs with “critical” skills shortages, as well as strategies to incentivise employers to increase training and participation rates in the UK.

Very highly skilled people, in areas the government identifies, will be given preferential access to come to the UK legally by increasing the number of people allowed to come through the “high talent” routes such as the global talent visa, the innovator founder visa and high potential individual route.

A limited pool of refugees will be allowed to apply for employment through the skilled worker route.

EMBARGOED TO 0001 TUESDAY FEBRUARY 18 File photo dated 15/08/14 of a doctor holding a stethoscope. Rising competition for training positions is putting "immense strain" on "overburdened and burnt-out" resident doctors, according to experts. It comes amid warnings that not enough medics are being trained to "meet the needs of our future population", particularly in deprived areas. Issue date: Tuesday February 18, 2025.
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Skilled worker visas will now require at least a university degree, with preferential access for highly skilled people. Pic: PA

Study visas

People on graduate visas will only be allowed to remain in the UK for 18 months after they finish their studies.

Currently, students finishing degrees can stay for two years if they apply for the graduate visa, or those finishing PhDs can stay for three.

Institutions sponsoring international students will have their requirements strengthened, with those close to failing their sponsor duties placed on an action plan and limits imposed on the number of new students they can recruit.

Sponsors, who can cover tuition fees and living costs, include overseas governments, UK government scholarships, UK government departments, UK universities, overseas universities, companies and charities.

Humanitarian visa

The Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan humanitarian visa routes will remain.

However, the government will review the effectiveness of sponsorship arrangements for those schemes so businesses, universities and community groups can “sustainably” sponsor those refugees.

Hundreds of people gather some holding documents, near an evacuation control checkpoint on the perimeter of the Hamid Karzai International Airport, in Kabul. Pic: AP
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The government will continue to support humanitarian visas, such as the Afghanistan one after the Taliban took over Kabul in 2021. Pic: AP

Domestic worker visa

To help prevent modern slavery, the government will reconsider this visa, which currently allows foreign national domestic workers to visit the UK with their employer for up to six months.

Businesses

Companies wanting to bring people from abroad to work for them in the UK will have to invest in the UK first.

To prevent exploitation of low-skilled workers on temporary visas already in the UK, the government will look at making it easier for workers to move between licensed sponsors for the duration of their visa.

The right to family life

A growing number of asylum seekers have used the “right to family life” – Article 8 of the Human Rights Act – to stop their deportation.

Legislation will be introduced to “make clear it is the government and parliament that decides who should have the right to remain in the UK”.

It will set out how Article 8 should be applied in different immigration routes so “fewer cases are treated as ‘exceptional'”.

A group of people believed to be migrants are brought in to Dover, Kent, following small boat crossings in the Channel. Migrants will be told they need to spend up to a decade in the UK before they can apply for citizenship and English language requirements will be increased as part of the Government's immigration crackdown. Picture date: Monday May 12, 2025. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS Immigration. Photo credit should read: Gareth Fuller/PA Wire
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A group of migrants was brought into Dover by Border Force as the PM announced immigration changes. Pic: PA

Foreign national offenders

The Home Office will be given powers to more easily take enforcement and removal action, and revoke visas in a much wider range of crimes where people did not serve jail time in other countries.

Deportation thresholds will be reviewed to take into account more than just the length of their sentence, with violence against women and girls taken more seriously.

Enforcement

Sir Keir said the immigration rules – at the border and in the system – will be more strongly enforced than before “because fair rules must be followed”.

People who claim asylum, particularly after arriving in the UK, where conditions in their home country have not materially changed, will face tighter controls, restrictions and requirements where there is evidence of abuse of the system.

Other governments will be made to play their part to stop their nationals coming to the UK, or from being returned.

Sponsors of migrant workers or students abusing the system will have financial penalties or sanctions placed on them, and they will be given more support to ensure compliance.

People on short-term visas who commit an offence will be deported “swiftly”.

Scientific and tech methods will be explored to ensure adults coming to the UK are not wrongly identified as children.

eVisas, which have now replaced physical documents, will help tackle illegal working and support raids on those overstaying their visas or on the wrong visa.

Major banks are legally obligated to refuse current accounts to individuals suspected of being in the UK illegally and to notify the Home Office. This will be extended to other financial institutions.

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Nigel Farage says he would allow essential migration but numbers would be capped

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Nigel Farage says he would allow essential migration but numbers would be capped

Nigel Farage has told Sky News he would allow some essential migration in areas with skill shortages but that numbers would be capped.

The Reform UK leader said he would announce the cap “in four years’ time” after he was pressed repeatedly by Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates about his manifesto pledge to freeze “non-essential” immigration.

Politics latest: PM accused of ‘shameful’ language in migration crackdown

It was put to Mr Farage that despite his criticism of the government’s migration crackdown, allowing essential migration in his own plans is quite a big caveat given the UK’s skills shortages.

However the Clacton MP said he would allow people to plug the gaps on “time dependent work permits” rather than on longer-term visas.

He said: “Let’s take engineering, for argument’s sake. We don’t train enough engineers, we just don’t. It’s crazy.

“We’ve been pushing young people to doing social sciences degrees or whatever it is.

“So you’re an engineering company, you need somebody to come in on skills. If they come in, on a time dependent work permit, if all the right health assurances and levies have been paid and if at the end of that period of time, you leave or you’re forced to leave, then it works.”

Read more:
What are Starmer’s new immigration rules?
The choice facing Labour in face of Reform threat – analysis

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‘We need to reduce immigration’

Reform’s manifesto, which they call a “contract”, says that “essential skills, mainly around healthcare, must be the only exception” to migration.

Pressed on how wide his exemption would be, Mr Farage said he hopes enough nurses and doctors will be trained “not to need anybody from overseas within the space of a few years”.

He said that work permits should be separate to immigration, adding: “If you get a job for an American TV station and you stay 48 hours longer than your work permit, they will smash your front door down, put you in handcuffs and deport you.

“We allow all of these routes, whether it’s coming into work, whether it’s coming as a student, we have allowed all of these to become routes for long-term migration.”

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Sky’s Sam Coates questions PM on migration

Asked if he would put a cap on his essential skills exemption, he said: “We will. I can’t tell you the numbers right now, I don’t have all the figures. What I can tell you is anyone that comes in will not be allowed to stay long-term. That’s the difference.”

Pressed if that was a commitment to a cap under a Reform UK government, he suggested he would set out further detail ahead of the next election, telling Coates: “Ask me in four years’ time, all right?”

Mr Farage was speaking after the government published an immigration white paper which pledged to ban overseas care workers as part of a package of measures to bring down net migration.

The former Brexit Party leader claimed the proposals were a “knee jerk reaction” to his party’s success at the local elections and accused the prime minister of not having the vigour to “follow them through”.

However he said he supports the “principle” of banning foreign care workers and conceded he might back some of the measures if they are put to a vote in parliament.

He said: “If it was stuff that did actually bind the government, there might be amendments on this that you would support. But I’m not convinced.”

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Will Bitcoin hodlers be the reason more countries adopt wealth taxes?

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Will Bitcoin hodlers be the reason more countries adopt wealth taxes?

Will Bitcoin hodlers be the reason more countries adopt wealth taxes?

Opinion by: Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly

Is there a catch for Bitcoin hodlers, with the asset’s price up over 600,000% since the beginning of 2013? 

Perhaps — if governments keep waking up to Bitcoin’s value, the whole “you only pay tax when you sell” mantra could soon be a thing of the past.

What if a wealth tax is the answer for revenue-hungry tax agencies with no time to lose? It’s a yearly tax on a person’s total net worth — cash, investments, property and other assets — minus any debts, applied whether or not those assets are sold or generating income. The idea is to boost public revenue and curb inequality, mainly by taxing the ultra-rich. A wealth tax takes a clip off what you own, not what you earn.

Countries such as Belgium, Norway and Switzerland have had wealth taxes baked into their tax systems for ages, yet some of the world’s biggest economies — like the US, Australia and France — have largely steered clear. 

That might be changing. More governments are eyeing wealth taxes for crypto. In December 2024, French Senator Sylvie Vermeillet took it a step further, suggesting Bitcoin (BTC) be labeled “unproductive,” which would mean taxing its gains every year — whether or not it’s ever sold. 

Yep, every asset holder’s favorite word is unrealized capital gains tax. It would be naive to assume other countries are not thinking about the same idea. 

With Bitcoin’s significant gains and industry executives such as ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood eyeing a $1.5-million price tag by 2030, I’d bet a magic 8-ball would say, “Signs point to yes.”

The growing global interest in wealth tax

It might seem far-fetched, but it is hard to ignore the gains. The average long-term Bitcoin holder is already sitting on significant profits.

The incentive is obvious. Switzerland’s wealth tax goes up to 1% of a portfolio’s value, and governments know there is plenty to collect.

Countries catch on — sooner or later. Consider how capital gains tax became the norm.

The US introduced capital gains tax in 1913, the UK jumped on board 52 years later in 1965, and Australia followed in 1985. 

Governments likely considering the wealth tax

Governments are likely entertaining the idea — whether they admit it or not. If any country seriously considers it, Germany could be a prime candidate, even though it scrapped its wealth tax back in 1997.

Recent: Ukraine floats 23% tax on some crypto income, exemptions for stablecoins

In July 2024, offloading 50,000 seized BTC at $58,000 might have seemed like a smart move for the German government, but when Bitcoin hit $100,000 just months later in December, it became clear they left a fortune on the table. 

In retrospect, a costly mistake…

Will this be remembered as a blunder on par with Gordon Brown selling half of the UK’s gold reserves at $275 an ounce? 

Imposing such a rule on the wealthy comes with obvious risks.

To understand the real effect of taxation on a country, just follow the money — specifically, where millionaires are moving. Recent data shows that high-net-worth individuals are leaving countries like the United Kingdom in droves, heading for tax-friendly havens like Dubai.

The potential repercussions of a wealth tax

Will nations risk losing these individuals to tap into unrealized gains on Bitcoin and other assets?

Bitcoin is volatile and full of unknowns. While some events could lead to massive losses, governments may still push forward with policies that ultimately drive away millionaires, only to realize the trade-off wasn’t worth it. 

Conversely, US President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve — a clear nod to the hodl mentality. No doubt, this has other nations considering a similar move.

If nations are embracing the hodl mindset, could that mean wealth taxes are off the table in those countries? Only time will tell.

One thing is sure: Bitcoin hodlers have amassed enough wealth to put themselves on the radar of tax authorities. Whether this sparks fundamental policy changes or just political grandstanding, the crypto community won’t sit back quietly.

Opinion by: Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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