Holding on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip on Friday morning at least gave Rishi Sunak a life jacket to cling to in the by-election wash-up – a 2-1 defeat rather than a 3-0.
Popping up in Uxbridge, the prime minister used his wafer-thin victory (winning Boris Johnson’s old seat by just 495 votes) to insist that the outcome of the next general election was “not a done deal”.
But these results won’t give the Conservatives much confidence that they are on course to avoid going under at the next general election.
Be it the Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, or the Liberal Democrat triumph in Somerton and Frome, the common thread in both these results are two opposition parties performing at levels matching by-election results in the dying days of the 1992-1997 Conservative government which came crashing down with the Tony Blair landslide.
That was an epochal election – and these results only reinforce the idea that the next one is likely to be too.
For Labour, the win in Selby is historic.
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It was the biggest ever Tory majority – more than 20,000 – overturned by Labour in a by-election, and the second biggest swing – 23.7 per cent – away from the Tories to Labour since the Second World War, beaten only by Tony Blair in Dudley West in 1994.
Sir Keir Starmer finds himself in the sort of territory – in the polls and in this election – that was claimed by Mr Blair ahead of this big victory.
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He needs a swing of 12 per cent – Blair got a record 10.7 per cent swing in 1997 – to gain 124 seats and win a majority.
Selby is the Conservatives’ 249th most vulnerable seat and losing in a rural Tory stronghold like this will make Tories with majorities of 15,000 feel very unsure.
For the Lib Dems, winning Somerton and Frome is their fourth consecutive by-election win this parliament, a feat not achieved since the days of Paddy Ashdown in 1992-1997.
It has given the Lib Dems belief that they can rebuild in the West Country, having been nearly wiped out by the Tories after five years of coalition government in 2015.
Somerton was the Lib Dems’ 53rd most marginal seat in the 2019 general election, so they have plenty to go for into next year.
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By-elections: What the results mean for UK politics
Sunak sees a way to destabilise Labour
For the Conservatives though, there is a glimmer of something in all of this.
One person in Mr Sunak’s top team told me that Uxbridge had given the prime minister hope that if he can pin Labour on issues of substance, there is an opportunity to create dividing lines between Labour and the Tories that gives Mr Sunak a chance.
“We’ll have a sharper political take next term, force Starmer out of the shadows and stop him being a grey man. In September you’ll be hearing more about wedge issues,” they said.
I’m told that Mr Sunak is not much of a “culture wars” PM, but will fight on issues where he believes he can disrupt Mr Starmer’s policies and put himself on the right side of voters.
Already the Tories are talking about Labour’s now diluted £28bn-a-year investment into green energy in order to deliver green power by 2030 as an obvious area to hit.
For Labour, the narrative would have of course been cleaner if Mr Sunak had lost all three by-elections.
But the results in some ways reinforce the patterns and political strategy we have seen since the Truss debacle and emergence of Sunak as PM – the Conservatives are miles behind in the polls, local and by-elections reinforce a likely change of power in the next general election and Labour can’t take anything for granted, with the top team borrowing Blair’s “warriors against complacency” in their approach from now to election day.
“The result might not be clean, but it is crystal clear,” says one senior Labour figure. “Selby shows how far we’ve come and the potential of what we can do.
“To win the trust of so many voters who have never voted for us in a strong Tory part of the country is remarkable.”
But it’s true too from Uxbridge that support can’t be taken for granted, and Labour can be de-stabilised when a campaign cuts through.
“Uxbridge shows that support from voters is conditional and if we don’t act in their interests they will not support us,” says the senior Labour figure. “We must put the voters first, our priorities must be the public’s.”
Image: Labour secured a historic victory in Selby and Ainsty
Sunak and Starmer will both double down
From sticking to the two-child cap on child benefit, to only making spending commitments that have been costed via other tax rises (such as ending non-dom status and charging VAT on private school fees), Labour is determined not to open up any flank on economic ill-discipline.
This, I’m told, is all about focus and convincing ‘small c’ Conservatives to come into the Labour column at the general election.
There will be no radicalism from Starmer that costs money.
Instead, he will try to signal “change” through policies that don’t cost money – reforming the planning system and devolution (although I think the Tories might target the green investment plan as an exposed flank).
The overall swing away from the Tories over these three by-elections of 21 per cent is obviously disastrous for Mr Sunak.
But he knows too his party won’t switch him out now – even those who don’t like or support him accept the Conservatives can’t change PM again – and so he will double down on his five pledges while sharpening up attack lines on his opponent.
This trio of by-elections reinforce that it is Mr Starmer with the most to lose and Mr Sunak with everything to win in the race for No 10.
We could be up to 18 months away from the short election campaign, but these leaders will be firing the starting guns on the long campaign in earnest in September.
General elections are always bloody and epochal ones are even more vicious. Strap in.
The UK could see one of the hottest June days on record today, with temperatures reaching a scorching 34C.
Since 1960, UK temperatures in June have surpassed 34C in only three years, with the hottest being 35.6C, recorded on 28 June 1976.
It will be the fourth day of a heatwave for much of England, which is forecast to be hotter than holiday spots in Barbados, Jamaica and Mexico.
Image: People enjoy the warm weather on Durley Chine Beach in Dorset. File pic: PA
Wimbledon is set for its hottest ever opening day, with temperatures expected to beat the previous record of 29.3C set on 25 June 2001. The hottest day of the tournament was seen on 1 July 2015, when temperatures reached 35.7C.
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It could also be a tropical night, with parts of England staying above 20C overnight into Tuesday, the Met Office said.
On Tuesday parts of southeast England could hit 35C, though Scotland and Northern Ireland face heavy rain and cooler temperatures.
An amber heat health alert came into force on Friday – the second in two weeks.
The alert, which covers London, the East Midlands, the South East, and the East of England, lasts until 6pm on Tuesday.
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The UK Health Security Agency also issued a yellow alert for Yorkshire and the Humber and the West Midlands for the same period – warning of significant impacts on health and social care services.
An amber alert was previously issued for all regions in England on 19 June, the first time it had been used since September 2023.
An official heatwave is recorded when areas reach a certain temperature between 25-28C for three consecutive days. The threshold varies across the UK.
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London Fire Brigade assistant commissioner Thomas Goodall said London “is already facing its second heatwave of the year” and warned “high temperatures and low rainfall in recent months means the current risk of wildfires is severe”.
He said firefighters have responded to around 14 wildfires in the capital so far this year and said it is “important everyone acts responsibly to prevent fires from occurring”.
“As the weather has been so dry, it only takes a few sparks to lead to a fire spreading rapidly,” he said. “In London, this can be dangerous because so many of our green spaces lie close to homes and other properties.”
Image: Festivalgoers at this year’s Glastonbury. Pic: PA
It comes after major heatwaves across southern Europe left Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece in sweltering conditions of more than 40C over the weekend.
Temperatures were well above average in parts of southern Spain, with 46.8C recorded in Tresviso.
Two-thirds of Portugal was on high alert for extreme heat and wildfires, while several Italian regions banned outdoor work during peak hours of sun on Sunday.
The Italian health ministry also placed 21 out of 27 monitored cities under its highest heat alert, including top tourist spots Rome, Milan and Naples.
Greece was on high wildfire alert because of the extreme weather, after a large wildfire broke out south of Athens on Thursday, which was fanned by strong winds and damaged several houses.
Dozens of MPs have called on Sir Keir Starmer to “urgently” establish a Ukraine-style visa to allow Gazans with family in the UK to come to Britain.
In a letter seen exclusively by Sky News, the 67 MPs and Lords from across the political spectrum, have asked the prime minister and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper to create a “Gaza Family Scheme” to “reunite [Palestinians] with their loved ones in the UK until it is safe to return”.
“Just as the UK opened its doors to those fleeing persecution in Ukraine and Hong Kong, we believe that the same generosity should be extended to Palestinian families,” the letter says.
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the UK opened up the Ukraine Family Scheme allowing Ukrainian nationals to join family members in the UK and live, work and study in the UK for up to three years. Applications closed in February 2024.
Two years before, the UK opened the British National (Overseas) visa to allow Hong Kongers fleeing after a strict national security law was imposed by China to live in the UK for five years then apply for British citizenship.
Image: The letter is also addressed to Yvette Cooper. Pic: PA
The letter, sent to the PM on Sunday evening, has been signed by 35 Labour MPs and House of Lords members, including Marsha de Cordova, Clive Lewis, Stella Creasy, Richard Burgon, Kim Johnson, Afzal Khan, Rachael Maskell, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Andy Slaughter and Alex Sobel.
Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell are among a handful of former Labour MPs suspended from the party last year to sign the letter, as are all four Green MPs, Lib Dem MPs Tim Farron and Layla Moran, several Northern Ireland MPs and SNP MPs Graham Leadbitter and Brendan O’Hara.
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The Bishop of Chelmsford, Dr Guli Francis-Dehquani, has also signed the letter.
Only one Conservative, former special adviser to William Hague, Baroness Helic, signed it.
In the letter, the politicians express their “grave concern at the immense suffering inflicted on Palestinians in Gaza”.
They accuse Israel of “shattering the temporary ceasefire agreement”, weaponising starvation, and intensifying its “campaign of bombardment and military assaults, and targeting of people accessing humanitarian aid”.
Image: Labour MP Marsha de Cordova organised the letter calling for a Ukraine-style family visa for Gazans. Pic: Parliament.uk
Labour MP Marsha de Cordova, who helped organise the letter with the Gaza Families Reunited campaign, told Sky News: “The Ukrainian Family Visa Scheme was the right response to a brutal war.
“Establishing a Gaza Family Visa Scheme would be an extension of those same principles, showing that this government is steadfast in its commitment to helping families experiencing the worst horrors of war.
“It is time for the government to act now to help British Palestinians get their loved ones to safety, enabling them to rebuild their lives.”
The MPs also say in the letter that since Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing about 1,200 people and taking 250 hostage, at least 53,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza and “the real death toll is likely to be exponentially higher”.
They say a Gaza Family Scheme would allow Palestinians in Gaza to reunite with their families – “people they may never see again unless urgent action is taken”.
The MPs say many Gazans who have attempted to come to the UK have “struggled to navigate the immigration system”, especially as they are required to provide biometrics to apply for a visa but that is “impossible due to the destruction of the visa application centre in Gaza and blockade of the Rafah crossing”.
They say there are a lack of safe zones or ways out of Gaza and some have constituents with family members who have fled Gaza to Egypt but “are stuck in limbo, with no access to schools or healthcare to begin the process of rebuilding their lives”.
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Dozens dead in Gaza after Israeli strikes
The letter adds that it would be a “vital step” towards addressing the UK government’s “historical, present, and ongoing responsibility towards Palestinians in Gaza” and the UK has a “duty to take all necessary steps to hold Israel to account for its crimes”.
Ghassan Ghaban, spokesperson for Gaza Families Reunited, said “family unity is an undeniable human right” and said Labour in opposition urged the Conservative government to do more to help British Palestinians get their relatives to safety.
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“We are still waiting for the new government to do the right thing,” he said.
“We, as Palestinians in the UK, simply want the opportunity to bring our loved ones from Gaza to safety, until it is safe to return.
“The UK welcomed those fleeing war and persecution in Ukraine and Hong Kong with open arms. All we are asking for is the same treatment to be extended to our family members who have experienced unimaginable trauma as a result of Israel’s genocide in Gaza.”
He added there is “only a small number of Palestinians in the UK”, and an even smaller number with family members in Gaza.
A government spokesperson said: “The death and destruction in Gaza is intolerable.
“Since day one, we have been clear that we need to see an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages cruelly detained by Hamas, better protection of civilians, significantly more aid consistently entering Gaza, and a path to long-term peace and stability.
“There are a range of routes available for Palestinians who wish to join family members in the UK.”
Jessica Ellis is a Chewie. She’s not from a galaxy far, far away but here, right now, working in one of our most deprived communities. To the people she helps, she is a force for good.
We are standing in front of a large block of council flats in Westminster, central London. The entrycom buzzes.
“Hi Mrs Dikir, how are you?” Jessica asks. And then “thank you” as we’re let in and make our way up five flights of stairs.
Inside the flat, in the living room, Mr Jaber Dikir sits on a soft, plush armchair. It has to be comfortable because Mr Dikir spends most of his days sitting here.
“I have a heart problem, I have open heart surgery and now I have heart failure,” Mr Dikir explains. “I have water in my chest and that gives me big trouble to sleep, to breathe,” he adds as he begins to wheeze.
I ask Mr Jaber how Jessica has been able to help him.
“She hears you, she listens to you,” he replies. “She understands everything. She even called the doctor and he gave me permission to stay at home (for my blood tests). That’s really appreciated. I couldn’t walk properly, I couldn’t go to the clinic.”
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Jessica is a community health and wellbeing worker (CHWWs). That’s where the nickname comes from.
CHWWs work in small teams, going door to door in some of the most deprived areas of the country.
It’s part of an NHS pilot inspired by a successful programme in Brazil.
A simple but effective intervention
Jessica says her role is “to make life easier”. Mr Dakir, she tells me, is struggling with his mobility. So is organising a designated disabled bay.
“Mr Dakir is struggling to get out to his appointments, and the GP needs a blood test from him. So I was able to speak to the GP and he’s been labelled as temporarily housebound so the district nursing team can come in now and take the bloods for him at home.”
Image: Jessica Ellis works as a community health and wellbeing worker in Westminster
A simple but effective intervention that has a huge impact on Mr Dakir and the NHS.
The project is currently being used in 15 neighbourhoods around the country. In Westminster, there has been a 7% drop in A&E admissions and an 11% reduction in hospital admissions year on year.
There has also been a 47% increase in the likelihood of households having vaccinations, an 82% increase in cancer screenings and a 7.3% drop in unscheduled GP consultations.
Taking community care right to the patient’s door
Dr Melinda Creme is a local GP. Jessica acts as a conduit between Dr Creme and her patients.
Image: Dr Melinda Creme, a GP in Westminster
“We need to look at the costs of what might happen downstream if disease is not picked up earlier, if health inequalities are not addressed sooner, and so there should be potential huge savings down the line.
“It might take five years, 10 years to make a difference and that’s the issue, because obviously governments change within that time.
“But if there’s a long-term lens on this, then we stand a chance of being able to afford a health service free at the point of delivery.”
This is exactly what the government wants, what the NHS wants, to bring care into the community. With this project, they are taking community care right to the patient’s door.
Image: Community health and wellbeing worker Jessica Ellis visits Jaber Dikir, who has a heart condition, at his home
Dr Creme says the days when people would go to their GP and expect their family doctor to look after anybody and everybody about everything are gone.
“We can’t possibly do that. We’re not equipped to do that because the population is expanding and we cannot address all needs.”
Labour’s 10-year health plan set for launch
The government is expected to focus on personalised and community care in its 10-year health plan when it is published on Thursday.
It will look to ease pressure on buckling emergency departments and models like this have shown early signs of good results, but they require time and investment.
Projects like this can help ease the strain on services facing record pressures and tight budgets. They could be a significant part of a wider NHS plan.